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At least 199 records · Page 11

Prospective Safety Analysis and the Complex Aviation System

Fatal accident rates in commercial passenger aviation are at historic lows yet have plateaued and are not showing evidence of further safety advances. Modern aircraft accidents reflect both historic causal factors and new unexpected "Black Swan" events. The ever-increasing complexity of the aviation system, along with its associated technology and organizational relationships, provides fertile ground for fresh problems. It is important to take a proactive approach to aviation safety by working to identify novel causation mechanisms for future aviation accidents before they happen. Progress has been made in using of historic data to identify the telltale signals preceding aviation accidents and incidents, using the large repositories of discrete and continuous data on aircraft and air traffic control performance and information reported by front-line personnel. Nevertheless, the aviation community is increasingly embracing predictive approaches to aviation safety. The "prospective workshop" early assessment tool described in this paper represents an approach toward this prospective mindset-one that attempts to identify the future vectors of aviation and asks the question: "What haven't we considered in our current safety assessments?" New causation mechanisms threatening aviation safety will arise in the future because new (or revised) systems and procedures will have to be used under future contextual conditions that have not been properly anticipated. Many simulation models exist for demonstrating the safety cases of new operational concepts and technologies. However the results from such models can only be as valid as the accuracy and completeness of assumptions made about the future context in which the new operational concepts and/or technologies will be immersed. Of course that future has not happened yet. What is needed is a reasonably high-confidence description of the future operational context, capturing critical contextual characteristics that modulate both the likelihood of occurrence of hazards, and the likelihood that those hazards will lead to negative safety events. Heuristics extracted from scenarios, questionnaires, and observed trends from scanning the aviation horizon may be helpful in capturing those future changes in a way conducive to safety assessment. What is also needed is a checklist of potential sources of emerging risk that arise from organizational features that are frequently overlooked. The ultimate goal is to develop a pragmatic, workable method for using descriptions of the future aviation context, to generate valid predictions of safety risks.

prospection↗

A geometric approach to failure detection and identification in linear systems

Using concepts of (C,A)-invariant and unobservability (complementary observability) subspaces, a geometric formulation of the failure detection and identification filter problem is stated. Using these geometric concepts, it is shown that it is possible to design a causal linear time-invariant processor that can be used to detect and uniquely identify a component failure in a linear time-invariant system, assuming: (1) The components can fail simultaneously, and (2) The components can fail only one at a time. In addition, a geometric formulation of Beard's failure detection filter problem is stated. This new formulation completely clarifies of output separability and mutual detectability introduced by Beard and also exploits the dual relationship between a restricted version of the failure detection and identification problem and the control decoupling problem. Moreover, the frequency domain interpretation of the results is used to relate the concepts of failure sensitive observers with the generalized parity relations introduced by Chow. This interpretation unifies the various failure detection and identification concepts and design procedures.

Massoumnia, M. A.↗

The Analysis of the Contribution of Human Factors to the In-Flight Loss of Control Accidents

In-flight loss of control (LOC) is currently the leading cause of fatal accidents based on various commercial aircraft accident statistics. As the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) emerges, new contributing factors leading to LOC are anticipated. The NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP), along with other aviation agencies and communities are actively developing safety products to mitigate the LOC risk. This paper discusses the approach used to construct a generic integrated LOC accident framework (LOCAF) model based on a detailed review of LOC accidents over the past two decades. The LOCAF model is comprised of causal factors from the domain of human factors, aircraft system component failures, and atmospheric environment. The multiple interdependent causal factors are expressed in an Object-Oriented Bayesian belief network. In addition to predicting the likelihood of LOC accident occurrence, the system-level integrated LOCAF model is able to evaluate the impact of new safety technology products developed in AvSP. This provides valuable information to decision makers in strategizing NASA's aviation safety technology portfolio. The focus of this paper is on the analysis of human causal factors in the model, including the contributions from flight crew and maintenance workers. The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) taxonomy was used to develop human related causal factors. The preliminary results from the baseline LOCAF model are also presented.

Ancel, Ersin↗

Effect of specific non-pharmaceutical intervention policies on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the counties of the United States

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) remain the only widely available tool for controlling the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. We estimated weekly values of the effective basic reproductive number (R eff ) using a mechanistic metapopulation model and associated these with county-level characteristics and NPIs in the United States (US). Interventions that included school and leisure activities closure and nursing home visiting bans were all associated with a median R eff below 1 when combined with either stay at home orders (median R eff 0.97, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.58–1.39) or face masks (median R eff 0.97, 95% CI 0.58–1.39). While direct causal effects of interventions remain unclear, our results suggest that relaxation of some NPIs will need to be counterbalanced by continuation and/or implementation of others.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Resolving electron and hole transport properties in semiconductor materials by constant light-induced magneto transport

The knowledge of minority and majority charge carrier properties enables controlling the performance of solar cells, transistors, detectors, sensors, and LEDs. Here, we developed the constant light induced magneto transport method which resolves electron and hole mobility, lifetime, diffusion coefficient and length, and quasi-Fermi level splitting. We demonstrate the implication of the constant light induced magneto transport for silicon and metal halide perovskite films. We resolve the transport properties of electrons and holes predicting the material’s effectiveness for solar cell application without making the full device. The accessibility of fourteen material parameters paves the way for in-depth exploration of causal mechanisms limiting the efficiency and functionality of material structures. To demonstrate broad applicability, we further characterized twelve materials with drift mobilities spanning from 10 –3 to 10 3 cm 2 V –1 s –1 and lifetimes varying between 10 –9 and 10 –3 seconds. The universality of our method its potential to advance optoelectronic devices in various technological fields.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The nonlinear thermodynamics of meteors, noctilucent clouds, enhanced airglow and global atmospheric circulation

Two types of fundamental topological junctions of elements are deduced from a nonlinear thermodynamical model. Using this scheme, the possibility of a causal relation between fireballs and faint meteors as nonlinear sources on the one hand, and noctilucent clouds (NC) and Hoffmeister's enhanced airglow (EA) as complementary formative processes in the middle atmosphere and ionosphere, on the other hand, is examined. The principal role of the global atmospheric circulation in this relation is demonstrated. Such circulation in the mesosphere appears to prevent the neutral dust dissipated by fireballs from becoming an efficient agent in NLC generation. In this case, the behavior of ionized material deposited by both the bright and faint meteors is more probably controlled, as shown from the annual variation of the E sub s layer by the darkness of lunar eclipses and the global circulation of the lower thermosphere. The role of fireballs and neutral dust might be more significant as a source of EA phenomenon.

Rajchl, J.↗

National Airspace System Delay Estimation Using Weather Weighted Traffic Counts

Assessment of National Airspace System performance, which is usually measured in terms of delays resulting from the application of traffic flow management initiatives in response to weather conditions, volume, equipment outages and runway conditions, is needed both for guiding flow control decisions during the day of operations and for post operations analysis. Comparison of the actual delay, resulting from the traffic flow management initiatives, with the expected delay, based on traffic demand and other conditions, provides the assessment of the National Airspace System performance. This paper provides a method for estimating delay using the expected traffic demand and weather. In order to identify the cause of delays, 517 days of National Airspace System delay data reported by the Federal Aviation Administration s Operations Network were analyzed. This analysis shows that weather is the most important causal factor for delays followed by equipment and runway delays. Guided by these results, the concept of weather weighted traffic counts as a measure of system delay is described. Examples are given to show the variation of these counts as a function of time of the day. The various datasets, consisting of aircraft position data, enroute severe weather data, surface wind speed and visibility data, reported delay data and number of aircraft handled by the Centers data, and their sources are described. The procedure for selecting reference days on which traffic was minimally impacted by weather is described. Different traffic demand on each reference day of the week, determined by analysis of 42 days of traffic and delay data, was used as the expected traffic demand for each day of the week. Next, the method for computing the weather weighted traffic counts using the expected traffic demand, derived from reference days, and the expanded regions around severe weather cells is discussed. It is shown via a numerical example that this approach improves the dynamic range of the weather weighted traffic counts considerably. Time histories of these new weather weighted traffic counts are used for synthesizing two statistical features, six histogram features and six time domain features. In addition to these enroute weather features, two surface weather features of number of major airports in the United States with high mean winds and low mean visibility are also described. A least squares procedure for establishing a functional relation between the features, using combinations of these features, and system delays is explored using 36 days of data. Best correlations between the estimated delays using the functional relation and the actual delays provided by the Operations Network are obtained with two different combinations of features: 1) six time domain features of weather weighted traffic counts plus two surface weather features, and 2) six histogram features and mean of weather weighted traffic counts along with the two surface weather features. Correlation coefficient values of 0.73 and 0.83 were found in these two instances.

Chatterji, Gano B.↗

Flame spread across liquids

Recent reviews of our understanding of flame spread across liquids show that there are many unresolved issues regarding the phenomenology and causal mechanisms affecting ignition susceptibility, flame spread characteristics, and flame spread rates. One area of discrepancy is the effect of buoyancy in both the uniform and pulsating spread regimes. The approach we have taken to resolving the importance of buoyancy for these flames is: (1) normal gravity (1g) and microgravity (micro g) experiments; and (2) numerical modeling at different gravitational levels. Of special interest to this work, as discussed at the previous workshop, is the determination of whether, and under what conditions, pulsating spread occurs in micro g. Microgravity offers a unique ability to modify and control the gas-phase flow pattern by utilizing a forced air flow over the pool surface.

Ross, Howard D.↗

Analyzing Changes in the Complexity of Climate in the Last Four Decades Using MERRA-2 Radiation Data

The energy balance of the Earth is controlled by the shortwave and longwave radiation emitted to space. Changes in the thermodynamic state of the system over time afect climate and are noticeable when viewing the system as a whole. In this paper, we study the changes in the complexity of climate in the last four decades using data from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). First, we study the complexity of the shortwave and longwave radiation felds independently using Approximate Entropy and Sample Entropy, observing that the rate of complexity change is faster for shortwave radiation. Then, we study the causality of those changes using Transfer Entropy to capture the non-linear dynamics of climate, showing that the changes are mainly driven by the variations in shortwave radiation. The observed behavior of climatic complexity could be explained by the changes in cloud amount, and we research that possibility by investigating its evolution from a complexity perspective using data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP).

Delgado-Bonal, Alfonso↗

Risks of Increased Earth Independence

As human space exploration begins to extend beyond the immediate vicinity of Earth, the ability of expertise on the ground to support operations will progressively decrease. Ground control expertise has been the primary countermeasure preventing loss of life and mission over the past sixty years and it will be gradually stripped away as expeditions reach further into space. The large, flexible and adaptive teams of experts on the ground, provide not only engineering analysis and problem-solving but also greatly increased work capacity. Monitoring of the large and fast moving stream of telemetry data is carried out around the clock by 20-30 flight controllers per shift. Analysis of that data and troubleshooting is carried out by an additional 50-100 engineers per shift. Artificial intelligence capabilities will need to be part of the solution but will not the entire solution. As progress continues to be made on intelligent systems, especially those for use in complex, dynamic environments where humans will remain a part of the activity, there is an ever increasing need to focus on how those systems will interact with the humans. Although capabilities such as natural language processing and facial recognition have become common place, even basic aspects of problem-solving, causal reasoning and generative decision-making remain well-beyond of our current capabilities. Advanced data visualization, procedure execution support, and new training approaches will be needed to close the gap between what is currently provided by experts on the ground and what the crew will need to do in increasingly autonomous ways with greater distance from Earth.

human-systems integration architecture↗

BdERECTA controls vasculature patterning and phloem-xylem organization in Brachypodium distachyon

Background: The vascular system of plants consists of two main tissue types, xylem and phloem. These tissues are organized into vascular bundles that are arranged into a complex network running through the plant that is essential for the viability of land plants. Despite their obvious importance, the genes involved in the organization of vascular tissues remain poorly understood in grasses. Results: We studied in detail the vascular network in stems from the model grass Brachypodium distachyon (Brachypodium) and identified a large set of genes differentially expressed in vascular bundles versus parenchyma tissues. To decipher the underlying molecular mechanisms of vascularization in grasses, we conducted a forward genetic screen for abnormal vasculature. We identified a mutation that severely affected the organization of vascular tissues. This mutant displayed defects in anastomosis of the vascular network and uncommon amphivasal vascular bundles. The causal mutation is a premature stop codon in ERECTA, a LRR receptor-like serine/threonine-protein kinase. Mutations in this gene are pleiotropic indicating that it serves multiple roles during plant development. This mutant also displayed changes in cell wall composition, gene expression and hormone homeostasis. Conclusion: In summary, ERECTA has a pleiotropic role in Brachypodium. We propose a major role of ERECTA in vasculature anastomosis and vascular tissue organization in Brachypodium.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Adaptive laboratory evolution and genetic engineering improved terephthalate utilization in Pseudomonas putida KT2440

Poly(ethylene terephthalate) (PET) is one of the most ubiquitous plastics and can be depolymerized through biological and chemo-catalytic routes to its constituent monomers, terephthalic acid (TPA) and ethylene glycol (EG). TPA and EG can be re-synthesized into PET for closed-loop recycling or microbially converted into higher-value products for open-loop recycling. Here, in this study, we expand on our previous efforts engineering and applying Pseudomonas putida KT2440 for PET conversion by employing adaptive laboratory evolution (ALE) to improve TPA catabolism. Three P. putida strains with varying degrees of metabolic engineering for EG catabolism underwent an automation-enabled ALE campaign on TPA, a TPA and EG mixture, and glucose as a control. ALE increased the growth rate on TPA and TPA-EG mixtures by 4.1- and 3.5-fold, respectively, in approximately 350 generations. Evolved isolates were collected at the midpoints and endpoints of 39 independent ALE experiments, and growth rates were increased by 0.15 and 0.20 h -1 on TPA and a TPA-EG, respectively, in the best performing isolates. Whole-genome re-sequencing identified multiple converged mutations, including loss-of-function mutations to global regulators gacS, gacA, and turA along with large duplication and intergenic deletion events that impacted the heterologously-expressed tphAB II catabolic genes. Reverse engineering of these targets confirmed causality, and a strain with all three regulators deleted and second copies of tphAB II and tpaK displayed improved TPA utilization compared to the base strain. Taken together, an iterative strain engineering process involving heterologous pathway engineering, ALE, whole genome sequencing, and genome editing identified five genetic interventions that improve P. putida growth on TPA, aimed at developing enhanced whole-cell biocatalysts for PET upcycling.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

An innovations approach to decoupling of multibody dynamics and control

The problem of hinged multibody dynamics is solved using an extension of the innovations approach of linear filtering and prediction theory to the problem of mechanical system modeling and control. This approach has been used quite effectively to diagonalize the equations for filtering and prediction for linear state space systems. It has similar advantages in the study of dynamics and control of multibody systems. The innovations approach advanced here consists of expressing the equations of motion in terms of two closely related processes: (1) the innovations process e, a sequence of moments, obtained from the applied moments T by means of a spatially recursive Kalman filter that goes from the tip of the manipulator to its base; (2) a residual process, a sequence of velocities, obtained from the joint-angle velocities by means of an outward smoothing operations. The innovations e and the applied moments T are related by means of the relationships e = (I - L)T and T = (I + K)e. The operation (I - L) is a causal lower triangular matrix which is generated by a spatially recursive Kalman filter and the corresponding discrete-step Riccati equation. Hence, the innovations and the applied moments can be obtained from each other by means of a causal operation which is itself casually invertible.

Rodriguez, G.↗

Wings: A New Paradigm in Human-Centered Design

Many aircraft accidents/incidents investigations cite crew error as a causal factor (Boeing Commercial Airplane Group 1996). Human factors experts suggest that crew error has many underlying causes and should be the start of an accident investigation and not the end. One of those causes, the flight deck design, is correctable. If a flight deck design does not accommodate the human's unique abilities and deficits, crew error may simply be the manifestation of this mismatch. Pilots repeatedly report that they are "behind the aircraft" , i.e., they do not know what the automated aircraft is doing or how the aircraft is doing it until after the fact. Billings (1991) promotes the concept of "human-centered automation"; calling on designers to allocate appropriate control and information to the human. However, there is much ambiguity regarding what it mean's to be human-centered. What often are labeled as "human-centered designs" are actually designs where a human factors expert has been involved in the design process or designs where tests have shown that humans can operate them. While such designs may be excellent, they do not represent designs that are systematically produced according to some set of prescribed methods and procedures. This paper describes a design concept, called Wings, that offers a clearer definition for human-centered design. This new design concept is radically different from current design processes in that the design begins with the human and uses the human body as a metaphor for designing the aircraft. This is not because the human is the most important part of the aircraft (certainly the aircraft would be useless without lift and thrust), but because he is the least understood, the least programmable, and one of the more critical elements. The Wings design concept has three properties: a reversal in the design process, from aerodynamics-, structures-, and propulsion-centered to truly human-centered; a design metaphor that guides function allocation and control and display design; and a deliberate distinction between two fundamental functions of design, to complement and to interpret human performance. The complementary function extends the human's capabilities beyond his or her current limitations - this includes sensing, computation, memory, physical force, and human decision making styles and skills. The interpretive (or hermeneutic, Hollnagel 1991) function translates information, functionality, and commands between the human and the aircraft. The Wings design concept allows the human to remain aware of the aircraft through natural interpretation. It also affords great improvements in system performance by maximizing the human's natural abilities and complementing the human's skills in a natural way. This paper will discuss the Wings design concept by describing the reversal in the traditional design process, the function allocation strategy of Wings, and the functions of complementing and interpreting the human.

Schutte, Paul C.↗

Preliminary Analysis of Aircraft Loss of Control Accidents: Worst Case Precursor Combinations and Temporal Sequencing

Aircraft loss of control (LOC) is a leading cause of fatal accidents across all transport airplane and operational classes, and can result from a wide spectrum of hazards, often occurring in combination. Technologies developed for LOC prevention and recovery must therefore be effective under a wide variety of conditions and uncertainties, including multiple hazards, and their validation must provide a means of assessing system effectiveness and coverage of these hazards. This requires the definition of a comprehensive set of LOC test scenarios based on accident and incident data as well as future risks. This paper defines a comprehensive set of accidents and incidents over a recent 15 year period, and presents preliminary analysis results to identify worst-case combinations of causal and contributing factors (i.e., accident precursors) and how they sequence in time. Such analyses can provide insight in developing effective solutions for LOC, and form the basis for developing test scenarios that can be used in evaluating them. Preliminary findings based on the results of this paper indicate that system failures or malfunctions, crew actions or inactions, vehicle impairment conditions, and vehicle upsets contributed the most to accidents and fatalities, followed by inclement weather or atmospheric disturbances and poor visibility. Follow-on research will include finalizing the analysis through a team consensus process, defining future risks, and developing a comprehensive set of test scenarios with correlation to the accidents, incidents, and future risks. Since enhanced engineering simulations are required for batch and piloted evaluations under realistic LOC precursor conditions, these test scenarios can also serve as a high-level requirement for defining the engineering simulation enhancements needed for generating them.

Belcastro, Christine M.↗

Using Federated Learning to Overcome Data Gravity in Space

Humans intend to take longer missions to outer space. Understanding the impact that space has on human health is paramount to the success of these missions. Controlled experiments with model organisms are run to infer the impact of space conditions on human health, but the data these experiments generate are too large to transfer to Earth for building models. The same is true for space-relevant data generated on Earth. Ideally, these datasets should be combined to improve statistical power and model accuracy without having to transfer data. Federated learning is such a method which trains an algorithm across decentralized computing systems, each of which has their own local copy of training and testing data. In this research, made possible by NASA@Work, the AI for Life in Space group at NASA demonstrates the use of federated learning to train an ensemble of causality inference models on a combination of data residing on the International Space Station (ISS) and in the cloud. Our work leverages CRISP, a causal inference platform developed during the 2020 Frontier Development Lab’s “Astronaut Health Challenge.” We also leverage the OpenFL federated learning library which was collaboratively developed at Intel and UPenn. We used publicly available data from the NASA Ames Life Sciences Data Archive to identify features in ionizing radiation experiments as causal of changes in cardiac blood velocity. This research demonstrates, for the first time, the possibility of running machine learning algorithms on datasets separated by astronomical distances. In this experiment, all the data were generated in terra, half of which were transferred to the ISS and analyzed on the Spaceborne Computer. In the future, our research will leverage federated learning on data generated in situ on the ISS with data generated terrestrially to predict the impact of spaceflight on mammalian female reproductive capacity.

James Casaletto↗

Low LBNP tolerance in men is associated with attenuated activation of the renin-angiotensin system

Plasma vasoactive hormone concentrations [epinephrine (p(Epi)), norepinephrine (p(NE)), ANG II (p(ANG II)), vasopressin (p(VP)), endothelin-1 (p(ET-1))] and plasma renin activity (p(RA)) were measured periodically and compared during lower body negative pressure (LBNP) to test the hypothesis that responsiveness of the renin-angiotensin system, the latter being one of the most powerful vasoconstrictors in the body, is of major importance for LBNP tolerance. Healthy men on a controlled diet (2,822 cal/day, 2 mmol. kg(-1). day(-1) Na(+)) were exposed to 30 min of LBNP from -15 to -50 mmHg. LBNP was uneventful for seven men [25 +/- 2 yr, high-tolerance (HiTol) group], but eight men (26 +/- 3 yr) reached presyncope after 11 +/- 1 min [P < 0.001, low-tolerance (LoTol) group]. Mean arterial pressure (MAP) did not change measurably, but central venous pressure and left atrial diameter decreased similarly in both groups (5-6 mmHg, by approximately 30%, P < 0.05). Control (0 mmHg LBNP) hormone concentrations were similar between groups, however, p(RA) differed between them (LoTol 0.6 +/- 0.1, HiTol 1.2 +/- 0.1 ng ANG I. ml(-1). h(-1), P < 0.05). LBNP increased (P < 0. 05) p(RA) and p(ANG II), respectively, more in the HiTol group (9.9 +/- 2.2 ng ANG I. ml(-1). h(-1) and 58 +/- 12 pg/ml) than in LoTol subjects (4.3 +/- 0.9 ng ANG I. ml(-1). h(-1) and 28 +/- 6 pg/ml). In contrast, the increase in p(VP) was higher (P < 0.05) in the LoTol than in the HiTol group. The increases (P < 0.05) for p(NE) were nonsignificant between groups, and p(ET-1) remained unchanged. Thus there may be a causal relationship between attenuated activation of p(RA) and p(ANG II) and presyncope, with p(VP) being a possible cofactor. Measurement of resting p(RA) may be of predictive value for those with lower hypotensive tolerance.

NASA Center ARC↗

The Influence of Roughness on Gear Surface Fatigue

Gear working surfaces are subjected to repeated rolling and sliding contacts, and often designs require loads sufficient to cause eventual fatigue of the surface. This research provides experimental data and analytical tools to further the understanding of the causal relationship of gear surface roughness to surface fatigue. The research included evaluations and developments of statistical tools for gear fatigue data, experimental evaluation of the surface fatigue lives of superfinished gears with a near-mirror quality, and evaluations of the experiments by analytical methods and surface inspections. Alternative statistical methods were evaluated using Monte Carlo studies leading to a final recommendation to describe gear fatigue data using a Weibull distribution, maximum likelihood estimates of shape and scale parameters, and a presumed zero-valued location parameter. A new method was developed for comparing two datasets by extending the current methods of likelihood-ratio based statistics. The surface fatigue lives of superfinished gears were evaluated by carefully controlled experiments, and it is shown conclusively that superfinishing of gears can provide for significantly greater lives relative to ground gears. The measured life improvement was approximately a factor of five. To assist with application of this finding to products, the experimental condition was evaluated. The fatigue life results were expressed in terms of specific film thickness and shown to be consistent with bearing data. Elastohydrodynamic and stress analyses were completed to relate the stress condition to fatigue. Smooth-surface models do not adequately explain the improved fatigue lives. Based on analyses using a rough surface model, it is concluded that the improved fatigue lives of superfinished gears is due to a reduced rate of near-surface micropitting fatigue processes, not due to any reduced rate of spalling (sub-surface) fatigue processes. To complete the evaluations, surface inspection were completed. The surface topographies of the ground gears changed substantially due to running, but the topographies of the superfinished gears were essentially unchanged with running.

Krantz, Timothy↗