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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 199 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

The National Climate Database (NCDB): An Unbiased 100-Year Dataset for PV Modeling

In this study, we develop a statistical technique to downscale the future projection of solar irradiance for photovoltaics (PV) energy-related applications. A set of Regional Climate Model (RCM)-based projections obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) are used as inputs to statistical methods to generate high-resolution global horizontal irradiance (GHI) over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The main steps of the statistical downscaling method include (1) regridding RCM output (0.22 degree and daily resolutions) to handle the modeled-observed data sets on a common grid, (2) correcting bias of RCM GHI using satellite-derived observation, and (3) implementing temporal and spatial downscaling to generate GHI at 8-km and hourly resolution. Basically, complex physical processes and interactions between solar radiation and various atmospheric constituents lead solar irradiance to be highly variable and uncertain. Underrepresentation of clouds from the RCM parameterizations is the main source of error and uncertainty in modeling solar irradiance. Thus, we adapt and use the high-quality satellite-derived data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to analyze the bias and error of RCM GHI as well as estimate the statistical parameters for spatial and temporal downscaling. This presentation will summarize the comprehensive analysis conducted to produce and assess the results under two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We will also present a detailed validation demonstrating the strengths of the downscaling method, a summary of the 100-year dataset from 2001-2100, and future extension of this research.

bias correction↗
NASA NTRS1974

The present development of time service in Brazil, with the application of the TV line-10 method for coordination and synchronization of atomic clocks

Various methods presently used for the dissemination of time at several levels of precision are described along with future projects in the field. Different aspects of time coordination are reviewed and a list of future laboratories participating in a National Time Scale will be presented. A Brazilian Atomic Time Scale will be obtained from as many of these laboratories as possible. The problem of intercomparison between the Brazilian National Time Scale and the International one will be presented and probable solutions will be discussed. Needs related to the TV Line-10 method will be explained and comments will be made on the legal aspects of time dissemination throughout the country.

Silva, P. M.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Finding relationships between effort and other variables in the SEL

Estimating the amount of effort required for a software development project is one of the major aspects of resource estimation for that project. In this study, the relationship between effort and other variables for 23 Software Engineering Laboratory (SEL) projects that were developed for NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center was examined. These variables fell into two categories: those which can be determined in the early stages of project development and may therefore be useful in a baseline equation for predicting effort in future projects, and those which can be used mainly to characterize or evaluate effort requirements and thus enhance the understanding of the software development process in this environment. Some results of the analyses are presented.

Basili, Victor R.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Climate Change and Expected Impacts on the Global Water Cycle

How the elements of the global hydrologic cycle may respond to climate change is reviewed, first from a discussion of the physical sensitivity of these elements to changes in temperature, and then from a comparison of observations of hydrologic changes over the past 100 million years. Observations of current changes in the hydrologic cycle are then compared with projected future changes given the prospect of global warming. It is shown that some of the projections come close to matching the estimated hydrologic changes that occurred long ago when the earth was very warm.

Rind, David↗
DOE OSTI2025

ISMIP6-based Antarctic projections to 2100: simulations with the BISICLES ice sheet model

The contribution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is one of the most uncertain components of sea level rise to 2100. Ice sheet models are the primary tool for projecting future sea level contribution from continental ice sheets. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 6 (ISMIP6) provided projections of the ice sheet contribution to sea level over the 21st century, quantifying uncertainty due to ice sheet model, climate model, emission scenario, and uncertain parameters. We present simulations following the ISMIP6 framework with the BISICLES ice sheet model and new experiments extending the ISMIP6 protocol to more comprehensively sample uncertainties in future climate, ice shelf sensitivity to ocean melting, and their interactions. These results contributed to the land ice projections of Edwards et al. (2021), which formed the basis of sea level projections for the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (AR6). Our experiments show the important interplay between surface mass balance processes and ocean-driven melt in determining Antarctic sea level contribution. Under higher-warming scenarios, high accumulation offsets more ocean-driven mass loss when sensitivity to ocean-driven melt is low. Conversely, we show that when sensitivity to ocean warming is high, ocean melting drives increased mass loss despite high accumulation. Overall, we simulate a sea level contribution range across our experiments from 2 to 178 mm. Finally, we show that collapse of ice shelves due to surface warming increases sea level contribution by 25 mm relative to the no-collapse experiments, for both moderate and high sensitivity of ice shelf melting to ocean forcing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1975

Implementation of the 64-meter-diameter Antennas at the Deep Space Stations in Australia and Spain

The management and construction aspects of the Overseas 64-m Antenna Project in which two 64-m antennas were constructed at the Tidbinbilla Deep Space Communications Complex in Australia, and at the Madrid Deep Space Communications Complex in Spain are described. With the completion of these antennas the Deep Space Network is equipped with three 64-m antennas spaced around the world to maintain continuous coverage of spacecraft operations. These antennas provide approximately a 7-db gain over the capabilities of the existing 26-m antenna nets. The report outlines the project organization and management, resource utilization, fabrication, quality assurance, and construction methods by which the project was successfully completed. Major problems and their solutions are described as well as recommendations for future projects.

Bartos, K. P.↗
NASA NTRS1989

How to compete for NASA contracts

Various studies and NASA experience have found that business concerns can provide a vital and significant impetus to technological innovation, not only in the fields of space and aeronautics, but also in national technological growth. NASA personnel are determined to foster the development of small business capabilities in technical areas that will support future projects and establish a small business base for the development and production of flight hardware for future missions. The solicitation process for Federal contracts has grown quite complex over the years. Where possible, we continue to try to simplify and streamline procedures for obtaining and performing these contracts. This booklet is designed to help understand NASA solicitations, find the information needed in deciding whether to respond, and improve chances for success. The first section of this booklet will answer general questions concerning the various types of NASA solicitations. Your specific questions on how to prepare bids will be answered in the second section, which is followed by a third section on the unique features of construction contracting. A fourth section describes how to submit technical and cost proposals for the negotiated procurement process. Some tips or suggestions, called DO's and DONT's, are placed at the end of the second, third, and fourth sections. Then, in the fifth section, ways to seek business as a subcontractor are identified.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2015

Why Don't They Just Give Us Money? Project Cost Estimating and Cost Reporting

Successful projects require an integrated approach to managing cost, schedule, and risk. This is especially true for complex, multi-year projects involving multiple organizations. To explore solutions and leverage valuable lessons learned, NASA's Virtual Project Management Challenge will kick off a three-part series examining some of the challenges faced by project and program managers when it comes to managing these important elements. In this first session of the series, we will look at cost management, with an emphasis on the critical roles of cost estimating and cost reporting. By taking a proactive approach to both of these activities, project managers can better control life cycle costs, maintain stakeholder confidence, and protect other current and future projects in the organization's portfolio. Speakers will be Doug Comstock, Director of NASA's Cost Analysis Division, Kristin Van Wychen, Senior Analyst in the GAO Acquisition and Sourcing Management Team, and Mary Beth Zimmerman, Branch Chief for NASA's Portfolio Analysis Branch, Strategic Investments Division. Moderator Ramien Pierre is from NASA's Academy for Program/Project and Engineering Leadership (APPEL).

Comstock, Douglas A.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Premature Deaths in Africa Due to Particulate Matter Under High and Low Warming Scenarios

Sustainable development and climate change mitigation can provide enormous public health benefits via improved air quality, especially in polluted areas. We use the latest state-of-the-art composition-climate model simulations to contrast human exposure to fine particulate matter in Africa under a “baseline” scenario with high material consumption, population growth, and warming to that projected under a sustainability scenario with lower consumption, population growth, and warming. Evaluating the mortality impacts of these exposures, we find that under the low warming scenario annual premature deaths due to PM2.5 are reduced by roughly 515,000 by 2050 relative to the high warming scenario (100,000, 175,000, 55,000, 140,000, and 45,000 in Northern, West, Central, East, and Southern Africa, respectively). This reduction rises to ∼800,000 by the 2090s, though by that time much of the difference is attributable to the projected differences in population. By contrast, during the first half of the century benefits are driven predominantly by emissions changes. Depending on the region, we find large intermodel spreads of ∼25%–50% in projected future exposures owing to different physics across the ensemble of 6 global models. The spread of projected deaths attributable to exposure to fine particulate matter, including uncertainty in the exposure-response function, are reduced in every region to ∼20%–35% by the non-linear exposure-response function. Differences between the scenarios have an even narrower spread of ∼5%–25% and are highly statistically significant in all regions for all models. These results provide valuable information for policy-makers to consider when working toward climate change mitigation and sustainable development goals.

PM2.5↗
NASA NTRS1988

Future space transportation vehicles - A NASA perspective

NASA has conducted extensive analyses of several scenarios of potential payload applications in an attempt to project future space transportation capability requirements. Of particular concern is the development of increasingly capable launch system. The enhancement of the manned STS with a heavy liftcargo launch vehicle which would utilize Shuttle technology to provide an unmanned cargo version of the Shuttle is also being addressed.

Branscome, Darrell R.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating Impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law on the U.S. Power System

The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021, commonly referred to as the 'Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL),' collectively represent the largest commitment of the U.S. Federal Government to invest in the modernization and decarbonization of the U.S. energy system. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that total support for the broad range of climate and clean energy programs, tax credits, and other incentives authorized through the two laws will exceed $430 billion from 2022 through 2031 (CRS 2022; CBO 2021, 2022). While the climate and clean energy provisions are numerous and have the potential to impact all aspects of the U.S. energy system from fuel and electricity production to final consumption in industry, transportation, and buildings, the provisions relevant to the electricity sector - in particular the suite of tax credits for clean generation, storage, and carbon dioxide ( CO 2 ) capture and storage - are expected to be some of the most consequential in terms of emissions reduction and clean energy deployment (Larsen et al. 2022; Jenkins, Mayfield, et al. 2022; Mahajan et al. 2022; Zhao et al. 2022). In this report, we detail the methods and results of a study estimating the potential impacts of key provisions of IRA and BIL on the contiguous U.S. power sector from present day through 2030. The analysis employs an advanced power system planning model, the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), to evaluate how major provisions from both laws impact investment in and operation of utility-scale generation, storage, and transmission, and, in turn, how those changes impact power system costs, emissions, and climate and health damages. While not exhaustive in capturing every provision, the analysis estimates the possible scale of power-sector impacts that could result from the modeled provisions in IRA and BIL. The study is structured around two scenarios to evaluate the potential impacts of both laws on the power sector: 1) No New Policy: A counter-factual scenario that reflects all Federal and state policies enacted as of September 2022, with exception to IRA and BIL, and assumes load growth consistent with the Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy Outlook 2022 (AEO22) Reference case (EIA 2022a); 2) IRA-BIL: A scenario reflecting all Federal and state policies enacted as of September 2022, including key IRA and BIL provisions, most notably the investment and production tax credits for zero-carbon emitting electricity generation and storage (ITC and PTC), the tax credit for CO 2 capture and storage (45Q), and the tax credit for existing nuclear plants (described further in Section 2.3). To account for the impacts of IRA and BIL on electrification, assumes increased load growth consistent with a scaled version of the Medium Electrification scenario from the Electrification Futures Study (Mai et al. 2018). These scenarios are simulated across seven sets of assumptions with varying projected future electricity market conditions, including technology costs and performance, natural gas prices, and the degree of availability, feasibility, and cost of development of renewable resources, electricity transmission, and CO 2 pipeline, injection, and storage infrastructure. In addition, we simulate two sensitivities on the 'policy' treatment in which we vary key assumptions pertaining to the realized value of the clean electricity ITC and PTC: 1) the cost of monetization of tax credits, and 2) the level of bonus crediting realized by project developers. We demonstrate that IRA and BIL have the collective potential to drive substantial growth in clean electricity by 2030, while reducing costs for consumers, mitigating climate change, and decreasing the human health impacts of power sector emissions. However, we also demonstrate that if expected cost improvements of clean technologies are not realized and/or constraints on deployment driven by factors such as supply-chain challenges, regulatory hurdles, and the social acceptability of energy infrastructure development limit the rate of clean energy and associated infrastructure deployment (such as transmission), then the share of clean generation achieved and the associated emissions benefits realized may be substantively reduced.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

HD ADOPT: Heavy-Duty Vehicle Choice Model Documentation

HD ADOPT is a logit consumer vehicle choice and stock model that analyzes the Class 8 tractor market. The model projects future technology shares, fuel consumption, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions under input assumptions of technology progress, energy prices, and policies. ADOPT is distinguished from other vehicle choice models through inclusion of non-linear and heterogenous consumer preferences and characterization of the full range of market options rather than use of composite vehicles. In addition, ADOPT has integrated vehicle simulation capabilities that enable performance assessment and optimization of endogenous technology evolution. Optionally, the model is able to adjust this evolution to enforce compliance with fuel economy and GHG emissions regulations. Primary results include projection of technology shares and future in-use fleet energy demand, petroleum consumption, and GHG emissions. This enables analysis and comparison of future scenarios of technology improvements, economic conditions, and national policies. Recent new features for the HD modeling also enable examination of different on-board hydrogen fuel storage technologies from the lens of consumer preferences for vehicle cost and range. This report documents current ADOPT capabilities and methodologies.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Selection of Global Climate Model Data for Downscaling With Generative Machine Learning and Use in the Power Planning for Alignment of Climate and Energy Systems Project

The range of results from climate models and scenarios is important to the understanding of uncertainty in power planning analysis. A U.S. Department of Energy-funded analytic project called Power Planning for Alignment of Climate and Energy Systems is developing data and analytic methods to reflect the effects of climate change on key variables for power system planning, as part of the Grid Modernization Lab Consortium. This project will select and prepare global climate model results for use in power system planning models. A related report (Evaluation of Global Climate Models for Use in Energy Analysis) assesses the performance of various global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 data archive for their historical skill with respect to energy system performance and for their future projections under multiple climate change scenarios. Building from that report, we describe the selection of a climate scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway [SSP] 2-4.5) and five climate models: TaiESM1, EC-Earth3-CC, GFDL-CM4, EC-Earth3-Veg, and MPI-ESM1-2-HR. We describe the model selection criteria, which were based on the quality of the match between model results under historical conditions and on the representation of the range of future values for several variables. These results will be downscaled via an open-source generative machine learning method called Super-Resolution for Renewable Energy Resource Data with Climate Change Impacts.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Energy Supply Chain Strategic Plan

With energy demand rising and the desire to reduce carbon emissions becoming more prominent, government and industry are increasingly interested in developing an emissions-free, power generation source that is safe, resilient and dependable. The world is looking to expand clean energy capabilities and develop the next generation of nuclear reactors. Not only is building next-generation energy systems Idaho National Laboratory’s opportunity, it is also Idaho’s opportunity. With this in mind, INL launched Supply Chain Initiative to leverage INL’s energy projects to build an energy talent pipeline and develop a robust business ecosystem to support current and future projects.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Computational study of TATB

We have performed a computational study of TATB. The study is composed of two parts, one where we perform static T = 0 K calculations with several different DFT functionals, to investigate structural properties and obtain a cold curve. Even though the functionals used in this study give poor results at ambient pressure, they perform much better at compression, when the dominance of the van der Waals’ forces in the binding is replaced by more normal interactions. In particular AM05 gives good results, mainly because it doesn’t include any “faulty” van der Waals’. Indeed the van der Waals’ corrected functional (PBE+D2) results shows the worst performance on structural properties. For the cold curve the PBE+D2 functional gives the best results compared to experiments (room temperature) but since the structural properties were bad with this functional we cannot for sure say that this is in any way a validation. It is shown that scaling the AM05 results with a common factor reproduces the experimental data. We leave the question on why to a follow up study but speculate that maybe the experiment and our calculations do not represent the same system set-up. From the structural properties we identify a site in the TATB lattice that contains a high concentration of oxygen and hydrogen. The consequences of this finding, if any, are left to a future project. In the second part of the study we perform extensive high-quality DFT-MD (molecular dynamics with DFT forces) calculations to obtain points on the Hugoniot. This part of the study did not get finished within this project and a more extensive summary of this part will be given in a follow up report at a future date. However, we show that obtaining calculated data is essential for equations of state development since the existing experimental Hugoniot data barely deviates from room temperature isotherm data and thus give no information of the high temperature dependency of materials properties. Our conclusion so far in the project is that being able to calculate materials properties is essential for high explosives since experiments are unable to give information in the high temperature part of phase space. While blind use of DFT cannot (yet) give unambiguous answers, we can still explore qualitatively and use such information to guide us in EOS development. However, the main conclusion is that we need better functionals in DFT to easily extract needed properties from calculations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2024

NPCC4: Tail Risk, Climate Drivers of Extreme Heat, and New Methods for Extreme Event Projections

We summarize historic New York City (NYC) climate change trends and provide the latest scientific analyses on projected future changes based on a range of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Building on previous NPCC assessment reports, we describe new methods used to develop the projections of record for sea level rise, temperature, and precipitation for NYC, across multiple emissions pathways and analyze the issue of the “hot models” associated with the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and their potential impact on NYC's climate projections. We describe the state of the science on temperature variability within NYC and explain both the large-scale and regional dynamics that lead to extreme heat events, as well as the local physical drivers that lead to inequitable distributions of exposure to extreme heat. We identify three areas of tail risk and potential for its mischaracterization, including the physical processes of extreme events and the effects of a changing climate. Finally, we review opportunities for future research, with a focus on the hot model problem and the intersection of spatial resolution of projections with gaps in knowledge in the impacts of the climate signal on intraurban heat and heat exposure.

NPCC4↗
NASA NTRS2021

Elevation Dependent Warming in the Eastern Siberian Arctic

There is evidence for elevation-dependent warming (EDW) in many mountainous regions, including the Alps, Rockies, and Tibetan Plateau, all of which are in mid-latitudes. Most studies finding evidence of EDW indicate that both recent decadal and future projected warming rates are greater at higher elevations. In this study, we examine the roles of Arctic amplification and elevation on future warming rates in winter and summer in eastern Siberia (50-70°N; 80-180°E). This region includes four major river basins that flow into the Arctic Ocean (the Yenisei, Lena, Indigirka, and Kolyma) and intersects with mountain ranges in northern Mongolia and eastern Siberia. We analyse projected 21st century temperature projections using a six-member ensemble of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) with a radiative forcing of 8.5 W m-2. Projected warming rates in winter for the 21st century are dominated by Arctic amplification, which leads to significantly larger warming rates at higher latitudes, with latitudinal gradients of about 0.16°C per degree latitude. In summer, the latitudinal gradient is near zero (0.02°C per degree of latitude). Within specific latitude bands, we also find EDW. However, unlike most mid-latitude locations where warming rates are greater at higher elevations, we find that future warming rates are smaller at higher elevations for this high-latitude region, particularly during winter, with statistically significant rates varying between -0.70 and -2.46 °C/km for different 5° latitude bands. The decrease in warming rates with elevation in winter at the highest latitudes is primarily attributed to strong inversions and changes in the lapse rate as free-air temperatures warm at slower rates than surface temperatures. In summer, the elevation dependence is much weaker than in winter but still statistically significant and negative in all but the most northern latitude band with values ranging between -0.10 and -0.56 °C/km.

elevation-dependent warming (EDW)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Strategic Energy Plan, Town of Cranberry Isles

This report details the strategic energy plan for the Town of Cranberry Isles, Maine. This project was spearheaded by the Cranberry Isles Community Solar Association (CICSA), and supported by Island Institute and Sandia National Laboratories, in partnership with the National Laboratory of the Rockies and Versant Power. The plan details the energy vision, goals, and focus areas for the community, provides technical analysis of the current energy system, and outlines potential projects to support community energy. Throughout the energy planning process, the project team engaged with members of the community to gather input and ideas to shape the plan. The project team and Versant also completed an extensive data collection to better inform the project. Sandia National Laboratories completed baseline technical assessments and feasibility studies to better understand potential feasible options for future projects. These potential projects, high-level costs, and next steps are a key output of this report.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗