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Numerical simulation of the Gulf Stream and Mid-Ocean eddies

Oceanographic field measurements have revealed intense, transient mesoscale motions in many parts of the world ocean. The circulation of the western North Atlantic, considered in the present study as a rectangular basin, is simulated with a primitive equation model that has five levels and a horizontal grid size of 37 km. The model ocean is driven by a 2.5 gyre pattern of steady zonal wind stress and by a Newtonian-type surface heating. Two cases are considered: the first uses a Laplacian formulation for the subgrid-scale lateral diffusions of heat and momentum; the second uses a highly scale-selective biharmonic formulation for these diffusions. An analysis of the heat transport, in the biharmonic experiment, shows that the horizontal transport of heat by eddies is much larger than the subgrid-scale horizontal heat diffusion. In the Gulf Stream region, the eddy heat transport is comparable to the effect of a lateral diffusion coefficient of 10 to the 7th sq cm/s.

Semtner, A. J., Jr.↗

Remote sensing of ocean color in the Arctic

The main objectives of the research are: to increase the understanding of biological production (and carbon fluxes) along the ice edge, in frontal regions, and in open water areas of the Arctic and the physical factors controlling that production through the use of satellite and aircraft remote sensing techniques; and to develop relationships between measured radiances from the Multichannel Aircraft Radiometer System (MARS) and the bio-optical properties of the water in the Arctic and adjacent seas. Several recent Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS) studies in the Arctic have shown that, despite constraints imposed by cloud cover, satellite ocean color is a useful means of studying mesoscale physical and biological oceanographic phenomena at high latitudes. The imagery has provided detailed information on ice edge and frontal processes such as spring breakup and retreat of the ice edge, influence of ice on ice effects of stratification on phytoplankton production, river sediment transport, effects of spring runoff, water mass boundaries, circulation patterns, and eddy formation in Icelandic waters and in the Greenland, Barents, Norwegian, and Bering Seas.

Maynard, N. G.↗

Tool for Forecasting Cool-Season Peak Winds Across Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

The expected peak wind speed for the day is an important element in the daily morning forecast for ground and space launch operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) must issue forecast advisories for KSC/CCAFS when they expect peak gusts for >= 25, >= 35, and >= 50 kt thresholds at any level from the surface to 300 ft. In Phase I of this task, the 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to develop a cool-season (October - April) tool to help forecast the non-convective peak wind from the surface to 300 ft at KSC/CCAFS. During the warm season, these wind speeds are rarely exceeded except during convective winds or under the influence of tropical cyclones, for which other techniques are already in use. The tool used single and multiple linear regression equations to predict the peak wind from the morning sounding. The forecaster manually entered several observed sounding parameters into a Microsoft Excel graphical user interface (GUI), and then the tool displayed the forecast peak wind speed, average wind speed at the time of the peak wind, the timing of the peak wind and the probability the peak wind will meet or exceed 35, 50 and 60 kt. The 45 WS customers later dropped the requirement for >= 60 kt wind warnings. During Phase II of this task, the AMU expanded the period of record (POR) by six years to increase the number of observations used to create the forecast equations. A large number of possible predictors were evaluated from archived soundings, including inversion depth and strength, low-level wind shear, mixing height, temperature lapse rate and winds from the surface to 3000 ft. Each day in the POR was stratified in a number of ways, such as by low-level wind direction, synoptic weather pattern, precipitation and Bulk Richardson number. The most accurate Phase II equations were then selected for an independent verification. The Phase I and II forecast methods were compared using an independent verification data set. The two methods were compared to climatology, wind warnings and advisories issued by the 45 WS, and North American Mesoscale (NAM) model (MesoNAM) forecast winds. The performance of the Phase I and II methods were similar with respect to mean absolute error. Since the Phase I data were not stratified by precipitation, this method's peak wind forecasts had a large negative bias on days with precipitation and a small positive bias on days with no precipitation. Overall, the climatology methods performed the worst while the MesoNAM performed the best. Since the MesoNAM winds were the most accurate in the comparison, the final version of the tool was based on the MesoNAM winds. The probability the peak wind will meet or exceed the warning thresholds were based on the one standard deviation error bars from the linear regression. For example, the linear regression might forecast the most likely peak speed to be 35 kt and the error bars used to calculate that the probability of >= 25 kt = 76%, the probability of >= 35 kt = 50%, and the probability of >= 50 kt = 19%. The authors have not seen this application of linear regression error bars in any other meteorological applications. Although probability forecast tools should usually be developed with logistic regression, this technique could be easily generalized to any linear regression forecast tool to estimate the probability of exceeding any desired threshold . This could be useful for previously developed linear regression forecast tools or new forecast applications where statistical analysis software to perform logistic regression is not available. The tool was delivered in two formats - a Microsoft Excel GUI and a Tool Command Language/Tool Kit (Tcl/Tk) GUI in the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS). The Microsoft Excel GUI reads a MesoNAM text file containing hourly forecasts from 0 to 84 hours, from one model run (00 or 12 UTC). The GUI then displays e peak wind speed, average wind speed, and the probability the peak wind will meet or exceed the 25-, 35- and 50-kt thresholds. The user can display the Day-1 through Day-3 peak wind forecasts, and separate forecasts are made for precipitation and non-precipitation days. The MIDDS GUI uses data from the NAM and Global Forecast System (GFS), instead of the MesoNAM. It can display Day-1 and Day-2 forecasts using NAM data, and Day-1 through Day-5 forecasts using GFS data. The timing of the peak wind is not displayed, since the independent verification showed that none of the forecast methods performed significantly better than climatology. The forecaster should use the climatological timing of the peak wind (2248 UTC) as a first guess and then adjust it based on the movement of weather features.

Barrett, Joe H., III↗

A comparison of adiabatic and kinematic vertical motions using mesoscale data

Results are compared from the adiabatic and kinematic methods of determining vertical motion during a period of severe convective storms when special meso alpha-scale rawinsonde data were available. The two procedures were tested using data from the first regional-scale day of AVE-SESAME '79 which coincided with the Red River Valley tornado outbreak of April 10-11, 1979. At 700 mb, each technique showed good agreement with the weather patterns, but the kinematic procedure gave superior results at 500 mb. The overall goodness of the adiabatic method during this particular case was not solely due to the high-resolution SESAME data since synoptic-scale mechanisms played a major role in creating a storm-conducive environment. With the advent of computer aided analysis systems such as AFOS, forecasters will have quicker access to a greater variety of information. Present results suggest that the adiabatic method can yield useful information for severe storm forecasters, especially in the lower troposphere. An interesting follow-on study would use sounding data from geostationary VAS satellites to compute adiabatic vertical motions at finer time and space resolutions than is now possible using RAOB data alone. Geostrophic winds derived from satellite thermal data probably can be used.

Fuelberg, H. E.↗

Emerging hierarchical dislocation structures: Insights from scanning electron microscopy-electron backscatter diffraction in situ tensile testing and multifractal analysis

Understanding the evolution of dislocation structures during plastic deformation is critical for predicting the mechanical performance of metallic materials. In this work, we applied in situ scanning electron microscopy/electron backscatter diffraction tensile testing combined with multifractal (MF) analysis to assess deformation-induced dislocation structure evolution in solution-annealed 304 L stainless steel, both in its as-received and neutron-irradiated states (5.4 displacements per atom). The analysis of kernel average misorientation patterns revealed the formation of hierarchical dislocation arrangements that exhibit clear MF scaling behavior. Despite pronounced visual differences between nonirradiated and irradiated specimens—most notably, the appearance of dislocation channels after irradiation—the singularity spectra suggest that both conditions give rise to similar underlying hierarchical structures. MF analysis provides a quantitative measure of the spatial complexity and self-organization of dislocation patterns, highlighting the accelerated emergence and evolution of the dislocation structures in irradiated polycrystalline materials, as well as the limitation of their spatial extent. The findings indicate that irradiation not only modifies microstructure but also alters correlation-driven dislocation organization. More generally, they demonstrate that MF analysis is a powerful tool for probing mesoscale deformation mechanisms.

Dislocation structures↗

Warm‐Season Afternoon Precipitation Peak in the Central Bay of Bengal: Process‐Oriented Diagnostics

Abstract Past studies have indicated that precipitation over tropical open oceans generally peaks in the early morning. However, an intriguing departure from this pattern is observed in the central Bay of Bengal (CBoB), where rainfall exhibits a distinct afternoon peak during the South Asian summer monsoon season. By using a novel satellite‐based cloud classification and tracking data set, we found that more than 75% of the afternoon rainfall (15–17 LST) over the CBoB comes from mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Most of the MCSs contributing to the CBoB afternoon rainfall peak originate either locally over the CBoB or near the west and east coasts of the BoB, in contrast to the northern BoB as highlighted in previous studies. Analyses show that MCSs initiated near coastlines are primarily influenced by land‐sea breezes, whereas MCSs initiated over the BoB open ocean during early morning are strongly associated with diurnal radiative forcings. In addition, there are clear diurnal propagating MCS initiation signals from the west and north coastlines of the BoB to the CBoB, which are related to diurnal gravity waves emitted from the coastlines. The thermodynamic conditions conducive to MCS initiation over different sub‐regions of the BoB are also investigated. No systematic differences found in environmental convective available potential energy between days with and without MCS initiation. However, over most sub‐regions, days with MCS initiation generally have higher total column water vapor than days without MCS initiation. This difference suggests that the lower‐free‐tropospheric moisture content plays an important role in MCS initiation over the BoB.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mesoscale lake-effect snowstorms in the vicinity of Lake Michigan - Linear theory and numerical simulations

Mesoscale lake-effect snowstorms in the vicinity of Lake Michigan are studied by a linear steady-state analytic model and a nonlinear time-dependent numerical model with parameterized subgrid-scale physics. The solutions of the linear model show that the orientation of the mean wind field to the surface heating pattern is crucial to the shapes of the disturbances. The results indicate that the relative warmth of the lake surface can induce three updraft centers under a westerly wind, two updraft centers/bands under a northwesterly wind, and a convergence band under a northerly wind. Such convergences are caused by the interaction between the mean wind and the local circulations forced by the curved thermal contrasts. The numerical results from the nonlinear model not only produce convergence patterns very similar to those found in the linear theory and in other numerical studies, but also capture the transient property in some of the lake-induced disturbances. All of these results are qualitatively confirmed by satellite images.

Hsu, Hsiao-Ming↗

Megafans as Hydrous Environments

The mesoscale sedimentary environment known as the megafan, is a low-angle, partial cone of fluvial sediment generated where a river enters an unconfined basin where it begins the process of avulsing over wide areas. In shifting to different positions, the river lays down a partial cone of sediment and establishes a characteristic radial pattern of paleo courses. The apparent paucity of sedimentary bodies obviously tied to martian outflow channels may also relate to the difficulty of recognition due to their sheer size and featurelessness. However, the existence of megafans on Mars is being examined now that their ubiquity and characteristics on Earth are better understood. Accordingly we suggest two likely candidates on Mars: Maja Valles fluvial cone and Amazonis Planitia fluvial sedimentary bodies. Two cryptic examples from Amazonis Planitia may be important for understanding subsurface hydrous accumulation. For at least some of its history, discharges from Mangala Valles likely resulted in megafans. Distances from the end of Mangala Valles to the northern (low) margin of the planitia are very large, a fact that has suggested that fluvial emplacement was unlikely. However, the megafan model shows that long megafan radii are indeed feasible. It has been suggested further that discharge from Labou Vallis (8.5S 154.5W) must have led to fluvial sedimentation in the planitia. We suggest that during locally non-lacustrine/ocean phases, this sedimentation would have occurred in the form of megafans. However, the megafan model shows that long megafan radii are indeed feasible. It has been suggested further that discharge from Labou Vallis (8.5S 154.5W) must have led to fluvial sedimentation in the planitia. We suggest that during locally non-lacustrine/ocean phases, this sedimentation would have occurred in the form of megafans. Megafans emanating from Marte, Mangala and Labou valles have probably contributed to hydrous near-subsurface environments--in their distal reaches, i.e. along the northern, eastern and southeastern margins of Amazonis Planitia at various times. Following a new terrestrial analog, we conclude groundwater has at times accumulated preferentially beneath distal slopes of the Maja Valles feature, and along the northern, eastern and southeastern margins of Amazonis Planitia.

Wilkinson, M. Justin↗

Observational and numerical studies of extreme frontal scale contraction

The general objective of this effort is to increase understanding of how frontal scale contraction processes may create and sustain intense mesoscale precipitation along intensifying cold fronts. The five-part project (an expansion of the originally proposed two-part project) employed conventional meteorological data, special mesoscale data, remote sensing measurements, and various numerical models. First an idealized hydrostatic modeling study of the scale contraction effects of differential cloud cover on low-level frontal structure and dynamics was completed and published in a peer-reviewed journal. The second objective was to complete and publish the results from a three dimensional numerical model simulation of a cold front in which differential sensible heating related to cloud coverage patterns was apparently crucial in the formation of a severe frontal squall line. The third objective was to use a nonhydrostatic model to examine the nonlinear interactions between the transverse circulation arising from inhomogeneous cloud cover, the adiabatic frontal circulation related to semi-geostrophic forcing, and diabatic effects related to precipitation processes, in the development of a density current-like microstructure at the leading edge of cold fronts. Although the development of a frontal model that could be used to initialize such a primitive equation model was begun, we decided to focus our efforts instead on a project that could be successfully completed in this short time, due to the lack of prospects for continued NASA funding beyond this first year (our proposal was not accepted for future funding). Thus, a fourth task was added, which was to use the nonhydrostatic model to test tentative hypotheses developed from the most detailed observations ever obtained on a density current (primarily sodar and wind profiler data). These simulations were successfully completed, the findings were reported at a scientific conference, and the results have recently been submitted to a peer-reviewed journal. The fifth objective was to complete the analysis of data collected during the Cooperative Oklahoma Profiler Studies (COPS-91) field project, which was supported by NASA. The analysis of the mesoscale surface and sounding data, Doppler radar imagery, and other remote sensing data from multi frequency wind profiler, microwave radiometer, and the Radio Acoustic Sounding System has been completed. This study is a unique investigation of processes that caused the contraction of a cold front to a microscale zone exhibiting an undular bore-like structure. Results were reported at a scientific conference and are being prepared for publication. In summary, considerable progress has been achieved under NASA funding in furthering our understanding of frontal scale contraction and density current - gravity wave interaction processes, and in utilizing models and remotely sensed data in such studies.

Koch, Steven E.↗

Sea breeze-induced mesoscale systems and severe weather

The relationship between thunderstorm activity during the summer months along coastal regions of the Atlantic and Gulf coasts and the dry sea breeze circulation was investigated. Satellite composites of thunderstorm activity for synoptically undisturbed conditions have been obtained for south Florida for a series of days in the summer of 1983. These data were catalogued into different low level synoptic flow regimes. Five synoptic flow regimes were found from the data. A three-dimensional mesoscale numerical model was used for each sysnoptic flow regime to quantitatively predict the location of enhanced thunderstorm activity. This model includes a parameterization of vegetation and soil moisture feedbacks as well as a sophisticated planetary boundary layer representation. Using the results of the satellite image composites, spatial and temporal characteristics of deep convective cloud patterns and their variation with synoptic flow are described. The results from the numerical model have provided explanations for the observed patterns.

Pielke, R. A.↗

Impacts of Resolution on Heavy‐Precipitating Storms in Climate Model Hindcasts

The present study investigates the impact of horizontal resolutions on heavy‐precipitating storms using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version2 (E3SMv2) at low (∼100 km, LR) and high (∼25 km, HR) resolutions through short‐range hindcasts. The short‐range hindcast approach ensures a faithful comparison of model resolution in simulating the same storm events under a controlled large‐scale environment. Using a phenomenon‐based framework, we attribute precipitation to specific storm types: tropical cyclones (TCs), extratropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers, and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Our findings show that E3SM hindcasts with both HR and LR configurations significantly underestimate storm‐associated precipitation intensity but overestimate precipitation from other sources. Furthermore, both HR and LR hindcasts face significant challenges in accurately simulating extreme precipitation events, particularly over MCS hotspots. Nevertheless, HR simulations capture more detailed and intense precipitation patterns with an improved representation of storm dynamics. HR hindcasts produce 16% more storm precipitation compared to LR. For precipitation extremes, HR simulates a 33% higher 99th percentile precipitation magnitudes compared to LR, and most of the increment comes from these four heavy‐precipitating storm types. The increase in precipitation mainly comes from stratiform precipitation rather than convective precipitation. The improvement in HR simulations varies across different storm types with TC showing the largest improvement. The phenomenon‐based approach provides important insights into precipitation simulations especially for extremes. Our results emphasize the need for further refinement in high‐resolution models to improve the accuracy of precipitation predictions, which is crucial for better understanding and mitigating climate change impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Structure and Growth of the Marine Boundary Layer

LANDSAT visible imagery and a one-dimensional Lagrangian boundary layer model were used to hypothesize the nature and the development of the marine boundary layer during a winter episode of strong seaward cold air advection. Over-water heating and moistening of the cold, dry continental air is estimable from linear relations involving horizontal gradients of the near-surface air temperature and humidity. A line of enhanced convection paralleling the Atlantic U.S. coast from south of New York Bay to the vicinity of Virginia Beach, VA was attributed to stronger convergence at low levels. This feature was characterized as a mesoscale front. With the assistance of a three-dimensional mesoscale boundary layer model, initialized with data obtained from the MASEX, the marine boundary layer can be mapped over the entire Atlantic coastal domain and the evolution of the boundary layer can be studied as a function of different characteristics of important surface level forcings. The effects on boundary layer growth due to the magnitude and pattern of sea surface temperature, to the shape of the coastline, and to atmospheric conditions, such as the orientation of the prevailing wind are examined.

Mccumber, M.↗

Propagation of Convective Complexes Observed by TRMM in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic

Precipitation maxima during the West African summer monsoon propagate generally westward in tandem with African easterly waves. A heretofore unreported, repeating pattern of northward drift of precipitation maxima is detected on Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM satellite) time-latitude distributions of daily accumulations over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Corresponding 3-hourly TRMM accumulations show that the northward drifting envelopes of precipitation during August 2006 are often comprised of individual swaths propagating towards the southwest, presumably as mesoscale squall lines. The implied northward drift on the time-latitude distribution is a component of a resultant northwestward movement. The study examines the entire available record of TRMM precipitation observations, 1998-2010, to summarize TRMM maxima propagation over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Meridional displacements of precipitation maxima are most prevalent in June-September 2006, occurring less frequently during other summers. An investigation of geopotential and circulation fields, limited to two case studies, suggests mechanisms to explain some of the observed propagation of TRMM maxima. In one event, northward drift of the precipitation envelope is consistent with the corresponding displacement of the intertropical convergence zone trough, although the southwest propagation of individual mesoscale convection maxima does not correspond to any synoptic feature on reanalysis circulation or reanalysis downscaled by a regional model. One speculation is that southwestward propagation of precipitation maxima could be caused by regeneration of convection at outflow boundaries of mature thunderstorms.

Druyan, Leonard M.↗

Congruence between fine-scale genetic breaks and dispersal potential in an estuarine seaweed across multiple transition zones

Abstract Genetic structure in biogeographical transition zones can be shaped by several factors including limited dispersal across barriers, admixture following secondary contact, differential selection, and mating incompatibility. A striking example is found in Northwest France and Northwest Spain, where the estuarine seaweed Fucus ceranoides L. exhibits sharp, regional genetic clustering. This pattern has been related to historical population fragmentation and divergence into distinct glacial refugia, followed by post-glacial expansion and secondary contact. The contemporary persistence of sharp ancient genetic breaks between nearby estuaries has been attributed to prior colonization effects (density barriers) but the effect of oceanographic barriers has not been tested. Here, through a combination of mesoscale sampling (15 consecutive populations) and population genetic data (mtIGS) in NW France, we define regional genetic disjunctions similar to those described in NW Iberia. Most importantly, using high resolution dispersal simulations for Brittany and Iberian populations, we provide evidence for a central role of contemporary hydrodynamics in maintaining genetic breaks across these two major biogeographic transition zones. Our findings further show the importance of a comprehensive understanding of oceanographic regimes in hydrodynamically complex coastal regions to explain the maintenance of sharp genetic breaks along continuously populated coastlines.

Nicastro, Katy R.↗

Visualizing subcellular rearrangements in intact β cells using soft x-ray tomography

Characterizing relationships between cell structures and functions requires mesoscale mapping of intact cells showing subcellular rearrangements following stimulation; however, current approaches are limited in this regard. Here, we report a unique application of soft x-ray tomography to generate three-dimensional reconstructions of whole pancreatic β cells at different time points following glucose-stimulated insulin secretion. Reconstructions following stimulation showed distinct insulin vesicle distribution patterns reflective of altered vesicle pool sizes as they travel through the secretory pathway. Our results show that glucose stimulation caused rapid changes in biochemical composition and/or density of insulin packing, increased mitochondrial volume, and closer proximity of insulin vesicles to mitochondria. Costimulation with exendin-4 (a glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist) prolonged these effects and increased insulin packaging efficiency and vesicle maturation. This study provides unique perspectives on the coordinated structural reorganization and interactions of organelles that dictate cell responses.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A Hybrid Approach for Model Order Reduction of Barotropic Quasi-Geostrophic Turbulence

We put forth a robust reduced-order modeling approach for near real-time prediction of mesoscale flows. In our hybrid-modeling framework, we combine physics-based projection methods with neural network closures to account for truncated modes. We introduce a weighting parameter between the Galerkin projection and extreme learning machine models and explore its effectiveness, accuracy and generalizability. To illustrate the success of the proposed modeling paradigm, we predict both the mean flow pattern and the time series response of a single-layer quasi-geostrophic ocean model, which is a simplified prototype for wind-driven general circulation models. We demonstrate that our approach yields significant improvements over both the standard Galerkin projection and fully non-intrusive neural network methods with a negligible computational overhead.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NSUF Report EBSD analyses on metallic fuel samples: Tips and improvements in sample preparation

EBSD (Electron Backscatter Diffraction) is an analytic technique used to evaluate the microstructure of a specimen. It can be used to evaluate interesting crystallographic data ranging from grains size to grain orientation, from grain boundaries to stresses. Moreover, in the field of nuclear materials EBSD can aid in estimating properties important for reactor performance, such as dislocation and residual strain [1]. EBSD patterns are generated by focusing a stationary electron gun on the specimen and detecting the backscatter electrons that satisfy Bragg conditions, and thus are diffracted by the crystal planes forming the so called Kikuchi bands. These bands correspond to each of the lattice diffracting crystal planes and are detected on a phosphor screen via a low-light CCD camera [2]. The patterns are generated within a small interaction volume located at a depth of less than 50-100 nm. Because of this, the data quality is extremely sensitive to the integrity of the crystallographic lattice order at the surface of the sample and thus to sample preparation and to oxidation [3]. While conventional sample preparation methods are widely used in materials science, they often do not lead to quality electron backscatter patterns needed for the characterization of nuclear materials [4]. This has been related by many authors to the challenges associated with handling radiological specimens, their rapid oxidation, and artifacts in such samples (e.g. high number of defects, precipitates and/or porosities) [4-8]. EBSD, however, can be an invaluable technique to evaluate microstructural evolution during fabrication and after irradiation at the required mesoscale for model and simulation. It also provides important information on grain structure necessary to understand irradiation effect, such as grain subdivision. Thus, it is of paramount importance to further the application of this technique to nuclear materials and especially irradiated fuels.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Simulations of Cyclone Sidr in the Bay of Bengal with a High-Resolution Model: Sensitivity to Large-Scale Boundary Forcing

The predictability of Cyclone Sidr in the Bay of Bengal was explored in terms of track and intensity using the Advanced Research Hurricane Weather Research Forecast (AHW) model. This constitutes the first application of the AHW over an area that lies outside the region of the North Atlantic for which this model was developed and tested. Several experiments were conducted to understand the possible contributing factors that affected Sidr s intensity and track simulation by varying the initial start time and domain size. Results show that Sidr s track was strongly controlled by the synoptic flow at the 500-hPa level, seen especially due to the strong mid-latitude westerly over north-central India. A 96-h forecast produced westerly winds over north-central India at the 500-hPa level that were notably weaker; this likely caused the modeled cyclone track to drift from the observed actual track. Reducing the model domain size reduced model error in the synoptic-scale winds at 500 hPa and produced an improved cyclone track. Specifically, the cyclone track appeared to be sensitive to the upstream synoptic flow, and was, therefore, sensitive to the location of the western boundary of the domain. However, cyclone intensity remained largely unaffected by this synoptic wind error at the 500-hPa level. Comparison of the high resolution, moving nested domain with a single coarser resolution domain showed little difference in tracks, but resulted in significantly different intensities. Experiments on the domain size with regard to the total precipitation simulated by the model showed that precipitation patterns and 10-m surface winds were also different. This was mainly due to the mid-latitude westerly flow across the west side of the model domain. The analysis also suggested that the total precipitation pattern and track was unchanged when the domain was extended toward the east, north, and south. Furthermore, this highlights our conclusion that Sidr was influenced from the west side of the domain. The displacement error was significantly reduced after the domain size from the western model boundary was decreased. Study results demonstrate the capability and need of a high-resolution mesoscale modeling framework for simulating the complex interactions that contribute to the formation of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal region

Kumar, Anil↗