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DOE OSTI2025

Hydrodynamic Predictions for the Next Outburst of T Coronae Borealis: It Will Be the Brightest Classical or Recurrent Nova Ever Observed in X-Rays*

T Coronae Borealis (TCrB) is a recurrent nova with recorded outbursts in 1866 and 1946 and possible outbursts in 1217 and 1787. It is predicted to explode again in 2025 or 2026 based on multiple observational studies. The system consists of a massive ( M wd ≳ 1.35 M ⊙ ) white dwarf (WD) and a red giant (M3–M4 III). We have performed 1D hydrodynamic simulations with NOVA to predict the behavior of the next outburst. These simulations consist of a range of mass accretion rates onto ∼1.35 M ⊙ WDs, designed to bound the conditions necessary to achieve ignition of an explosion after an ≈80 yr interoutburst period. We have used both carbon–oxygen and oxygen–neon initial compositions, in order to include the possible ejecta abundances to be measured in the observations of the next outburst. As the WD in the TCrB system is observed to be massive, theoretical predictions reported here imply that the WD is growing in mass as a consequence of the thermonuclear runaway. Therefore, the secular evolution of the WD may allow it to approach the Chandrasekhar limit and either explode as a Type Ia supernova or undergo accretion-induced collapse, depending on its underlying composition. We have followed the evolution of just the WD, after removing the ejected matter from the surface layers. Our intent is to illuminate the mystery of the unique, second maximum in the two well-observed outbursts and we have found conditions that bracket the predictions.

Cataclysmic variable stars↗
DOE OSTI2026

EXERGETIC: De-Risking Next-Generation Resilient Geothermal Hybrids via At-Scale Evaluation Using Virtual Emulation Digital Twin Environment for Efficient Operation

The DOE-GTO-funded project, award number 5.1.2.12, entitled "EXERGETIC - De-risking Next Generation Resilient Geothermal Hybrids via at-Scale Evaluation Using a Virtual Emulation Digital Twin Environment for Efficient Operation," advances the solution to these challenges by developing and validating a geothermal co-emulation environment implemented at the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR)'s Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) platform. This framework enables the de-risking of next-generation geothermal and geothermal hybrid systems through high-fidelity modeling, real-time digital emulation, advanced control strategies, and techno-economic assessment. The project focused on geothermal hybrid configurations that integrate geothermal power plants with concentrated solar power and underground thermal energy storage, enabling enhanced efficiency, flexibility, and grid support capabilities. The main goal of this project was the development of a geothermal digital co-emulation environment to demonstrate the technical and economic value of geothermal hybrid systems and their contribution to grid stability and flexibility. The EXERGETIC framework combined physics-based models, controls, and real assets at ARIES, including digital real-time simulators (DRTS), a 20-MW-scale controllable grid interface (CGI), and a 2-MW conventional generator. Detailed transient models were developed for the key subsystems of a hybrid geothermal plant, including parabolic trough solar collectors, reservoir thermal energy storage (RTES), and a binary Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) power plant. The ORC model explicitly captured thermal inertia and off-design operation and integrated control strategies to dynamically respond to electric load profiles. The models were validated against published experimental and numerical studies, demonstrating strong agreement and confirming the accuracy and robustness of the modeling approach. The resulting digital twin represents geothermal-solar-storage systems at multiple scales (1 MW to 100 MW) and enables realistic emulation of grid-connected operation. The control architecture allows the geothermal resource to provide stable baseload generation, while solar and stored thermal energy supply flexible, dispatchable support during periods of high demand or variable grid conditions. A key contribution of the EXERGETIC project is the demonstration that geothermal hybrid systems can be designed to be active grid assets rather than passive baseload generators. Using the ARIES platform, the digital twin was evaluated under multiple grid scenarios, including load following, voltage support at the distribution level, and frequency response at the transmission level. Results show that hybrid geothermal systems can respond effectively to dynamic grid conditions, providing inertia-like behavior, primary frequency support, and voltage regulation through coordinated control. In addition to the performance and grid services capability analysis of geothermal and hybrid geothermal systems, the EXERGETIC project also focused on scalability and techno-economic analysis of geothermal hybrid plants. In particular, for the scalability analysis, machine-learning (ML)-based surrogate models were trained using data generated from the geothermal digital twin under different grid-connected scenarios and plant capacities. These ML models demonstrated strong interpolation and extrapolation capabilities across plant sizes, accurately reproducing both steady-state and transient responses with very low errors. Regarding the techno-economic analysis, plant performance results were integrated with cost models for hybrid geothermal systems, and the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) was used as the main economic metric to evaluate system performance across a range of system capacities, solar shares, solar multiples, and storage durations. Results indicate that economies of scale significantly reduce geothermal LCOE as plant capacity increases, with large-scale systems (25-100 MW) achieving substantially lower costs than small plants. Hybridization with solar thermal energy and storage further improves economic performance by increasing capacity utilization and enabling flexible dispatch. In addition, thermal storage plays a critical role in reducing LCOE by maximizing geothermal, solar, and stored energy resources. In summary, the results from this project demonstrate that geothermal hybrid systems represent a promising alternative for increasing the energy conversion efficiency of geothermal technologies, contributing to the preservation of geothermal resources, and supporting the transition of geothermal plants from traditional baseload resources into flexible, resilient, and cost-competitive energy conversion technologies.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1989

The role of optimization in the next generation of computer-based design tools

There is a close relationship between design optimization and the emerging new generation of computer-based tools for engineering design. With some notable exceptions, the development of these new tools has not taken full advantage of recent advances in numerical design optimization theory and practice. Recent work in the field of design process architecture has included an assessment of the impact of next-generation computer-based design tools on the design process. These results are summarized, and insights into the role of optimization in a design process based on these next-generation tools are presented. An example problem has been worked out to illustrate the application of this technique. The example problem - layout of an aircraft main landing gear - is one that is simple enough to be solved by many other techniques. Although the mathematical relationships describing the objective function and constraints for the landing gear layout problem can be written explicitly and are quite straightforward, an approximation technique has been used in the solution of this problem that can just as easily be applied to integrate supportability or producibility assessments using theory of measurement techniques into the design decision-making process.

Rogan, J. Edward↗
NASA NTRS1989

Next generation space robot

The recent research effort on the next generation space robots is presented. The goals of this research are to develop the fundamental technologies and to acquire the design parameters of the next generation space robot. Visual sensing and perception, dexterous manipulation, man machine interface and artificial intelligence techniques such as task planning are identified as the key technologies.

Iwata, Tsutomu↗
NASA NTRS1991

Next generation: Unmanned launch vehicles and upper stages: The needs

The focus is on common vehicle elements, higher mission success, and lower transportation cost with respect to the common needs of the Department of Defense, NASA, and U.S. Industry. The following are presented in viewgraph form: (1) perspectives on mission costs and failures; (2) the recurring costs of the Delta 7925, Atlas/Centar, Titan 3, and Titan 4; (3) U.S. launches from 1957-1987 of Vanguard, Jupiter, Thor/Delta, Juno, Atlas, Scout, Redstone, Saturn, Titan, and the Space Transportation System; and (4) subsystem sources of failure. The following topics are also briefly presented: (1) engine costs; (2) a summary of flight experience; (3) recommendations for next generation space transportation; (4) low cost engine demonstration; and (5) the next generation commercial expendable launch vehicle (ELV) needs estimate.

Gunn, Charles R.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Next generation: In-space transportation system(s)

The development of the next generation In-Space Transportation System presents a unique challenge to the design of a propulsion system for the Space Exploration Initiative (SEI). Never before have the requirements for long-life, multiple mission use, space basing, high reliability, man-rating, and minimum maintenance come together with performance in one system that must protect the lives of space travelers, support the mission logistics needs, and do so at an acceptable cost. The challenge that is presented is to quantify the bounds of these requirements. The issue is one of degree. The length of acceptable life in space, the time it takes for reuse to pay off, and the degree to which space basing is practical (full, partial, or expended) are the issues that determine the reusable bounds of a design and include dependability, contingency capabilities, resilency, and minimum dependence on a maintenance node in preparation for and during a mission. Missions to planet earth, other non-NASA missions, and planetary missions will provide important but less demanding requirements for the transportation systems of the future. The mission proposed for the SEI require a family of transportation vehicles to meet the requirements for establishing a permanent human presence on the Moon and eventually on Mars. Specialized vehicles are needed to accomplish the different phases of each mission. These large scale missions require assembly in space and will provide the greatest usage of the planned integrated transportation system. The current approach to defining the In-Space Transportation System for the SEI Moon missions with later Mars mission applications is presented. Several system development options, propulsion concepts, current/proposed activities are reviewed, and key propulsion design criteria, issues, and technology challenges for the next generation In-Space Transportation System(s) are outlined.

Huffaker, Fredrick↗
NASA NTRS1993

Advanced instrumentation for next-generation aerospace propulsion control systems

New control concepts for the next generation of advanced air-breathing and rocket engines and hypersonic combined-cycle propulsion systems are analyzed. The analysis provides a database on the instrumentation technologies for advanced control systems and cross matches the available technologies for each type of engine to the control needs and applications of the other two types of engines. Measurement technologies that are considered to be ready for implementation include optical surface temperature sensors, an isotope wear detector, a brushless torquemeter, a fiberoptic deflectometer, an optical absorption leak detector, the nonintrusive speed sensor, and an ultrasonic triducer. It is concluded that all 30 advanced instrumentation technologies considered can be recommended for further development to meet need of the next generation of jet-, rocket-, and hypersonic-engine control systems.

Barkhoudarian, S.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Computational Tools and Facilities for the Next-Generation Analysis and Design Environment

This document contains presentations from the joint UVA/NASA Workshop on Computational Tools and Facilities for the Next-Generation Analysis and Design Environment held at the Virginia Consortium of Engineering and Science Universities in Hampton, Virginia on September 17-18, 1996. The presentations focused on the computational tools and facilities for analysis and design of engineering systems, including, real-time simulations, immersive systems, collaborative engineering environment, Web-based tools and interactive media for technical training. Workshop attendees represented NASA, commercial software developers, the aerospace industry, government labs, and academia. The workshop objectives were to assess the level of maturity of a number of computational tools and facilities and their potential for application to the next-generation integrated design environment.

Noor, Ahmed K.↗
NASA NTRS1996

NASA's next generation tracking and data relay satellite system (TDRSS): Launch and operational ground segment architecture

The next generation's tracking and data relay satellite system (TDRSS) spacecraft currently under development for user support into the next century, is reported. Modifications will be made to the TDRSS ground terminals required for user support, the control of the TDRSS and the support of transfer orbit operations. The modifications will be made while ensuring compatibility with the present generation of TDRSS. The capabilities of the new spacecraft are described and compared with those of the existing generation. The architecture of the modified ground terminals and that of a new terminal, are detailed.

Miller, Ronald A.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Next Generation Multimedia Distributed Data Base Systems

The paradigm of client/server computing is changing. The model of a server running a monolithic application and supporting clients at the desktop is giving way to a different model that blurs the line between client and server. We are on the verge of plunging into the next generation of computing technology--distributed object-oriented computing. This is not only a change in requirements but a change in opportunities, and requires a new way of thinking for Information System (IS) developers. The information system demands caused by global competition are requiring even more access to decision making tools. Simply, object-oriented technology has been developed to supersede the current design process of information systems which is not capable of handling next generation multimedia.

Pendleton, Stuart E.↗
NASA NTRS1989

The Next Generation Space Telescope

In Space Science in the Twenty-First Century, the Space Science Board of the National Research Council identified high-resolution-interferometry and high-throughput instruments as the imperative new initiatives for NASA in astronomy for the two decades spanning 1995 to 2015. In the optical range, the study recommended an 8 to 16-meter space telescope, destined to be the successor of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST), and to complement the ground-based 8 to 10-meter-class telescopes presently under construction. It might seem too early to start planning for a successor to HST. In fact, we are late. The lead time for such major missions is typically 25 years, and HST has been in the making even longer with its inception dating back to the early 1960s. The maturity of space technology and a more substantial technological base may lead to a shorter time scale for the development of the Next Generation Space Telescope (NGST). Optimistically, one could therefore anticipate that NGST be flown as early as 2010. On the other hand, the planned lifetime of HST is 15 years. So, even under the best circumstances, there will be a five year gap between the end of HST and the start of NGST. The purpose of this first workshop dedicated to NGST was to survey its scientific potential and technical challenges. The three-day meeting brought together 130 astronomers and engineers from government, industry and universities. Participants explored the technologies needed for building and operating the observatory, reviewed the current status and future prospects for astronomical instrumentation, and discussed the launch and space support capabilities likely to be available in the next decade. To focus discussion, the invited speakers were asked to base their presentations on two nominal concepts, a 10-meter telescope in space in high earth orbit, and a 16-meter telescope on the moon. The workshop closed with a panel discussion focused mainly on the scientific case, siting, and the programmatic approach needed to bring NGST into being. The essential points of this panel discussion have been incorporated into a series of recommendations that represent the conclusions of the workshop. Speakers were asked to provide manuscripts of their presentation. Those received were reproduced here with only minor editorial changes. The few missing papers have been replaced by the presentation viewgraphs. The discussion that follows each speaker's paper was derived from the question and answer sheets, or if unavailable, from the tapes of the meeting. In the latter case, the editors have made every effort to faithfully represent the discussion.

Bely, Pierre-Yves↗
NASA NTRS1989

Considerations for a Next Generation UV/Optical Space Telescope

During the past 25 years, a remarkable scientific revolution, has occurred in astrophysics as a result of convergence on two advancing fronts. First, instruments and telescopes have been developed to make sensitive measurements throughout the entire electromagnetic spectrum. Secondly, access to space has permitted observations above the obscuring and distorting "dirty window" of our atmosphere. Beginning around the middle of the next decade, a third major path - the availability of the permanently manned Space Station Freedom - will join with the earlier two capabilities, to not only continue this revolution, but to accelerate the quest for answers about the universe that have puzzled mankind for centuries. Beyond Earth-orbit, NASA is actively studying the possibility of a return to the Moon, which would provide a valuable platform for astrophysics observations during the next century. The studies discussed in this paper indicate that the technology requirements associated with the transportation to orbit and the assembly of these telescopes in orbit are major driving forces in the selection of generic design concepts. Ultimately, optical advances which are now becoming available through advanced manufacturing must be matched by technology advances in orbital operations, system modularization, and assembly by man and machine.

Nein, M. E.↗
NASA NTRS1998

New Space Industries for the Next Millennium

New Space Industries For the Next Millennium is a final report of the findings from the New Space Industries Workshop held in Washington, DC, in February 1998. The primary purpose of this workshop was to identify what must be done to develop new markets, and to generate plans, milestones and new organizational relationships designed to facilitate the goal of space development. This document provides a summary report on the results of that workshop and is not intended as a statement of NASA or government policy. Previous studies had shown great potential for the development of new markets in space (e.g., travel and entertainment, space solar power, satellite and space transfer services, research and development in space, space manufacturing, and space resources), and a great need for coordination and formation of infrastructures (e.g., space transportation, space business parks, and space utilities), to facilitate the growth of new space businesses. The New Space Industries Workshop brought together government, academia, and industry participants from several previous studies and other professionals interested in the development of space for commercial purposes. Their participation provided input into the role of government and industry in space development as well as the technology needs that will enable space development. The opening of the frontier of space, not just to government missions but to private individuals and commercial business, is a challenge of overarching importance. It is our hope that the workshop and this final report continue in earnest the process of identifying and overcoming the barriers to large-scale public access and development of space in the early years of the next century.

Smitherman, D. V., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1999

NASA/NOAA: Earth Science Electronic Theater 1999. Earth Science Observations, Analysis and Visualization: Roots in the 60s - Vision for the Next Millennium

The Etheater presents visualizations which span the period from the original Suomi/Hasler animations of the first ATS-1 GEO weather satellite images in 1966, to the latest 1999 NASA Earth Science Vision for the next 25 years. Hot off the SGI-Onyx Graphics-Supercomputer are NASA''s visualizations of Hurricanes Mitch, Georges, Fran and Linda. These storms have been recently featured on the covers of National Geographic, Time, Newsweek and Popular Science. Highlights will be shown from the NASA hurricane visualization resource video tape that has been used repeatedly this season on National and International network TV. Results will be presented from a new paper on automatic wind measurements in Hurricane Luis from 1-min GOES images that appeared in the November BAMS. The visualizations are produced by the NASA Goddard Visualization & Analysis Laboratory, and Scientific Visualization Studio, as well as other Goddard and NASA groups using NASA, NOAA, ESA, and NASDA Earth science datasets. Visualizations will be shown from the Earth Science ETheater 1999 recently presented in Tokyo, Paris, Munich, Sydney, Melbourne, Honolulu, Washington, New York, and Dallas. The presentation Jan 11-14 at the AMS meeting in Dallas used a 4-CPU SGI/CRAY Onyx Infinite Reality Super Graphics Workstation with 8 GB RAM and a Terabyte Disk at 3840 X 1024 resolution with triple synchronized BarcoReality 9200 projectors on a 60ft wide screen. Visualizations will also be featured from the new Earth Today Exhibit which was opened by Vice President Gore on July 2, 1998 at the Smithsonian Air & Space Museum in Washington, as well as those presented for possible use at the American Museum of Natural History (NYC), Disney EPCOT, and other venues. New methods are demonstrated for visualizing, interpreting, comparing, organizing and analyzing immense HyperImage remote sensing datasets and three dimensional numerical model results. We call the data from many new Earth sensing satellites, HyperImage datasets, because they have such high resolution in the spectral, temporal, spatial, and dynamic range domains. The traditional numerical spreadsheet paradigm has been extended to develop a scientific visualization approach for processing HyperImage datasets and 3D model results interactively. The advantages of extending the powerful spreadsheet style of computation to multiple sets of images and organizing image processing were demonstrated using the Distributed Image SpreadSheet (DISS). The DISS is being used as a high performance testbed Next Generation Internet (NGI) VisAnalysis of: 1) El Nino SSTs and NDVI response 2) Latest GOES 10 5-min rapid Scans of 26 day 5000 frame movie of March & April 198 weather and tornadic storms 3) TRMM rainfall and lightning 4)GOES 9 satellite images/winds and NOAA aircraft radar of hurricane Luis, 5) lightning detector data merged with GOES image sequences, 6) Japanese GMS, TRMM, & ADEOS data 7) Chinese FY2 data 8) Meteosat & ERS/ATSR data 9) synchronized manipulation of multiple 3D numerical model views; etc. will be illustrated. The Image SpreadSheet has been highly successful in producing Earth science visualizations for public outreach.

Hasler, A. Fritz↗
NASA NTRS1999

Next Generation Remote Agent Planner

In May 1999, as part of a unique technology validation experiment onboard the Deep Space One spacecraft, the Remote Agent became the first complete autonomous spacecraft control architecture to run as flight software onboard an active spacecraft. As one of the three components of the architecture, the Remote Agent Planner had the task of laying out the course of action to be taken, which included activities such as turning, thrusting, data gathering, and communicating. Building on the successful approach developed for the Remote Agent Planner, the Next Generation Remote Agent Planner is a completely redesigned and reimplemented version of the planner. The new system provides all the key capabilities of the original planner, while adding functionality, improving performance and providing a modular and extendible implementation. The goal of this ongoing project is to develop a system that provides both a basis for future applications and a framework for further research in the area of autonomous planning for spacecraft. In this article, we present an introductory overview of the Next Generation Remote Agent Planner. We present a new and simplified definition of the planning problem, describe the basics of the planning process, lay out the new system design and examine the functionality of the core reasoning module.

Jonsson, Ari K.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Assimilation of Cloud- and Land-Affected TOVS/ATOVS Level 1B Radiances in DAO's Next Generation Finite-Volume Data Assimilation System

The Physical-space/Finite-volume Data Assimilation System (fvDAS) is the next generation global atmospheric data assimilation system in development at the Data Assimilation Office (DAO) at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. It is based on a new finite-volume general circulation model jointly developed by NASA and NCAR, and on the Physical-Space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS) developed at the DAO. In this talk we will focus on the assimilation of data from the (Advanced) TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (ATOVS), with emphasis on the impact of cloud- and land-affected level 1B radiances. Recently, it has been shown that the use of observations from satellite-borne microwave and infrared radiometers in data assimilation systems consistently increases forecast skill. Considerable effort has been expended over the past two decades, particularly with the (Advanced) TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (ATOVS), to achieve this result. The positive impact on forecast skill has resulted from improvements in quality control algorithms, systematic error correction schemes, and more sophisticated data assimilation algorithms. Despite these advances, there are still many issues regarding the use of satellite data in data assimilation systems that remain unresolved. In particular, most operational centers still do not assimilate cloud- and land-affected TOVS data. In this study, we evaluate the impact of assimilating cloud-and land-affected TOVS/ATOVS level 1B data in DAO's next generation fvDAS, using a 1D variational scheme. We will discuss the impact of these data on both tropospheric and stratospheric forecasts, as well as on the general aspects of the earth climate system.

Joiner, J.↗
NASA NTRS2001

DAO's Next Generation Physical-Space/Finite-Volume Data Assimilation System: Formulation and Initial Evaluation

The Physical-space/Finite-volume Data Assimilation System (fvDAS) is the next generation global atmospheric data assimilation system in development at the Data Assimilation Office at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. It is based on a new finite-volume general circulation model jointly developed by NASA and NCAR, and on the Physical-Space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS) developed at the DAO. In this talk we will describe the general system formulation, the adaptive quality control and general aspects of the error covariance modeling. The NASA-NCAR GCM is a completely new model which replaces the CEOs GCM used in the previous GEOS-1/2/3 Data Assimilation systems. A particular configuration of adaptive Statistical Quality Control and the Physical-space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS) are currently implemented in DAO's operational Data Assimilation System. However, the unique finite-volume formulation of the NASA-NCAR GCM, combined with the generality of the observation-space formulation of PSAS, provides for a very simple and accurate model-analysis interface. The system assimilates a variety of conventional and satellite observations. In particular, TOVS Level 1B radiances are assimilated using a 1-D variational scheme, both in clear sky and cloudy conditions. Computationally, the fvDAS runs approximately 10 times faster than the operational GEOS-Terra system. We will show that the next-generation fvDAS has much improved observation-minus-6hr forecast (O-F) statistics, as well as 5-day forecast skills. Top of the atmosphere radiation fields are in closer agreement with CERES measurements, with realistic precipitation and moisture fields. We will also show that the finite-volume formulation of the fvDAS produce assimilated fields which are more suitable for driving constituent transport models.

daSilva, A.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Performance Evaluation of 40 cm Ion Optics for the NEXT Ion Engine

The results of performance tests with two 40 cm ion optics sets are presented and compared to those of 30 cm ion optics with similar aperture geometries. The 40 cm ion optics utilized both NSTAR and TAG (Thick-Accelerator-Grid) aperture geometries. All 40 cm ion optics tests were conducted on a NEXT (NASA's Evolutionary Xenon Thruster) laboratory model ion engine. Ion optics performance tests were conducted over a beam current range of 1.20 to 3.52 A and an engine input power range of 1.1 to 6.9 kW. Measured ion optics' performance parameters included near-field radial beam current density profiles, impingement-limited total voltages, electron backstreaming limits, screen grid ion transparencies, beam divergence angles, and start-up transients. Impingement-limited total voltages for 40 cm ion optics with the NSTAR aperture geometry were 60 to 90 V lower than those with the TAG aperture geometry. This difference was speculated to be due to an incomplete burn-in of the TAG ion optics. Electron backstreaming limits for the 40 cm ion optics with the TAG aperture geometry were 8 to 19 V higher than those with the NSTAR aperture geometry due to the thicker accelerator grid of the TAG geometry. Because the NEXT ion engine provided beam flatness parameters that were 40 to 63 percent higher than those of the NSTAR ion engine, the 40 cm ion optics outperformed the 30 cm ion optics.

Soulas, George C.↗