Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “optimization under uncertainty”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

481 records · Page 11
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

A Python Tool for Aqueous Plutonium Nitrate Density Law Input Preprocessing in MCNP6

Here, this work develops a predictive density tool in Python, named Plutonium Nitrate Solutions (PuNS), to reduce bias and uncertainty in nuclear criticality safety calculations for plutonium nitrate systems. The Pitzer method and an empirical method were implemented into the PuNS tool to generate atom densities for use in MCNP6 material cards. These material cards are directly prepared into an MCNP6 input text file and are calculated based on customizable user inputs of plutonium content, nitric acid content, temperature, and plutonium isotope weight percentages. The PuNS tool is validated and verified against the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project Handbook experiments and is observed to predict densities within a root mean square error of 0.89% for the Pitzer method and 1.82% for the empirical method. These errors in density lead to up to 1569 pcm difference in MCNP6 calculated k eff for the Pitzer method and up to a 1751 pcm difference for the empirical method when compared to experimental benchmarks. Simultaneous work is also being performed at Los Alamos National Laboratory and the University of New Mexico to create a similar tool for plutonium chloride solutions, named Plutonium Chloride Solution, which aims to provide the accreditation of the chlorine absorption. These capabilities will not only provide more accurate models but also facilitate an improved understanding of solution systems and a potential relaxation in the conservatism of current aqueous plutonium processing criticality safety limits.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2026

Cost-effective valorization of 2,3-butanediol to high-value chemicals and jet fuel

Here, this work outlines an optimized process for converting 2,3-butanediol (BDO) into sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and C4 chemicals. BDO is reactively separated from fermentation broth by forming dioxolanes, which are converted to isobutyraldehyde, methyl ethyl ketone (MEK), and 1,3-butadiene. These intermediates are reduced and dehydrated over Cu/ZSM-5 to form alkenes, which can be oligomerized and hydrotreated to jet-range alkanes. Previous BDO-dioxolane-alkene processes are limited by the requirement for a continuous aldehyde source for dioxolane formation. Brønsted acidic zeolites catalyze dioxolane deacetalization to form isobutyraldehyde and MEK in a >2:1 molar ratio, providing an internal, recyclable aldehyde source. Dioxolane formation optimization was performed to achieve >95% dioxolane yields over Amberlyst-15 and minimize isobutyraldehyde recycle. The overall BDO-dioxolane-fuel process yields an alkane mixture that enables at least a 50% v/v blend with Jet-A. Techno-economic analyses and life cycle assessments for this BDO-dioxolane-fuel process yield scenarios with <$2.50 per gallon gas equivalent and >58% reduction in CO2 emissions.

2,3-butanediol↗
DOE OSTI2023

Photoelectrochemical materials for solar energy conversion

Research and development on semiconductors for applications in solar energy conversion has witnessed rapid growth over the past several decades. With the aim of producing chemical fuels from sunlight, intense research efforts have focused on the discovery of semiconductors with crystalline structures and chemical compositions that have the potential to satisfy the complex set of required photoelectrochemical properties. This chapter focuses on the foundational structure-property relationships of selected oxide and nitride semiconductors relevant to their uses as n-/p-type photoelectrodes and as photocatalysts. Their solid-state structures and compositions are described, with a special emphasis on strategies proven effective at targeting suitable band gaps with strong visible-light absorption, efficient charge separation and diffusion of charge carriers, and optimal band edge energies for driving surface redox reactions for water splitting.

O’Donnell, Shaun↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Phenazine‐Based Two‐Dimensional Covalent Organic Framework for Photochemical CO 2 Reduction with Increased Selectivity for Two‐Carbon Products

Abstract The reduction of carbon dioxide (CO₂) into valuable products will contribute to sustainable carbon use. Here we report the photocatalytic reduction of CO₂ to carbon monoxide, formate, and oxalate ions using a redox‐active phenazine‐based 2D covalent organic framework (Phen‐COF) and its phenazine monomer. Under similar irradiation conditions,Phen‐COFproduced 2.9 times more CO, 11 times more formate, and 13 times more oxalate compared to equimolar amounts of the monomeric phenazine, demonstrating that the COF architecture enhances catalytic performance (TOF COF : 10 −7 s −1 CO, 10 −8 s −1 formate, and 10 −11 s −1 oxalate). Structural analysis, including X‐ray diffraction and N₂ porosimetry, confirmed the COF's long‐range order and porosity. Mechanistic studies suggest a sequential formate‐to‐oxalate pathway, with CO and formate acting as intermediates. These results demonstrate the potential of the COF architecture to improve the performance of metal‐free, redox‐active aromatic systems such as phenazines to facilitate efficient and selective CO₂ conversion under mild conditions.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2026

Mitigating Hydrogen-Induced Degradation of Iridium Anodes in Proton Exchange Membrane Water Electrolyzers

One promising method for reducing precious metal usage in proton exchange membrane water electrolysis is lowering iridium (Ir) loading at the anode. However, low-loading Ir catalysts often suffer from poor stability under high current densities. In this study, hydrogen (H2) crossover from the cathode to the anode is identified as a key degradation pathway. Temperature-programmed reduction confirms the reduction of IrO2 at 80 °C in a hydrogen environment, highlighting the vulnerability of IrO2-based catalysts to H2 exposure. To mitigate this effect, palladium (Pd) is introduced as an anode additive, acting as an H2 oxidation catalyst and mitigating IrO2 reduction. This protective role is verified by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectroscopy and in situ X-ray absorption spectroscopy, showing significantly suppressed Ir dissolution at 80 °C under H2 flow when an O-covered Pd surface is present at oxygen evolution reaction potentials. Results from the current study identify a new strategy in improving activity and durability of catalysts in electrolyzers.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Heliostat sizing methodology for concentrating solar thermal industrial process heat projects

This study presents a method to obtain a heliostat size that minimizes the levelized cost of heat (LCOH) of a heliostat-based concentrating solar thermal system for applications of solar heating for industrial processes at operating temperatures from 565 to 1550°C. The method extends prior work by embedding a routine for system design that obtains near-optimal subsystem sizes, increasing the fidelity of drive cost functions, and adding an optical performance model to supplement the previously developed cost models, which we update to reflect current pricing trends. An illustrative business case is developed for Daggett, California, targeting specified annual thermal energy outputs of 50 to 400 GWh th . Optical performance is modeled using verified estimates from the literature. A surrogate heliostat cost model, derived from commercial heliostat designs and scaled for production volume, installation, and operations and maintenance costs, is used to develop cost functions. Results show that heliostat size strongly affects the LCOH, producing a characteristic U-shaped trend with a robust near-optimal window of 7-20 m 2 ; the heliostat size producing the lowest project cost in our study grows slightly as the project size increases, and is reduced as the operating temperature increases. The findings in this study are consistent with the general trend of smaller heliostats being deployed at existing projects for high-temperature industrial process heat and reflect the significant reduction in power electronics and other per-heliostat costs. The methodology we propose is general and can be tailored to revised cost curves as the technology continues to evolve.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

The impact of aerosol mixing state on immersion freezing: insights from classical nucleation theory and particle-resolved simulations

Immersion freezing, initiated by ice-nucleating particles (INPs) in supercooled aqueous droplets, plays an important role in the formation of ice crystals within clouds. The efficiency of immersion freezing depends strongly on INP composition and, crucially, on the mixing state – how chemical species are distributed across the particle population. Here, we quantify the impact of aerosol mixing state on immersion freezing using a combined theoretical and particle-resolved modeling approach. We derive analytical expressions for the frozen fraction of internally and externally mixed INP populations based on classical nucleation theory, showing that the frozen fraction is sensitive to whether ice-active species are present in all particles or only in a subset of the population. We introduce a multi-species immersion freezing scheme into the particle-resolved model PartMC, using the water activity-based immersion freezing model (ABIFM) to compute freezing probabilities for mixed-composition particles. To improve computational efficiency, we implement a Binned Tau-Leaping algorithm and demonstrate an order-of-magnitude speedup with minimal accuracy loss. Simulations reproduce the analytical trends in limiting cases and extend the analysis to more general aerosol populations, where mixing state continues to exert a substantial control on frozen fraction. Sensitivity analyses across particle size, species type, and cooling condition reveal that the mixing state effect is most pronounced when small amounts of highly efficient INPs are mixed with less efficient materials. These findings underscore the need to represent aerosol mixing state explicitly in models of heterogeneous ice nucleation to reduce uncertainty in cloud-phase partitioning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Socio-Techno-Economic Feasibility of Deep Geothermal with EGS for Residential District Heating in the Northeastern United States

In this paper, we present socio-techno-economic simulation results for enhanced geothermal system (EGS) district heating systems in the northeastern United States. We applied the geospatial Distributed Geothermal Market Demand (dGeo) tool coupled with GEOPHIRES to evaluate the feasibility of geothermal deep direct-use, utilizing EGS reservoirs for providing residential heating with district heating systems. The results were combined with JEDI results to assess social impacts. Simulation results assuming doublet EGS reservoirs with target production temperature of 80 degrees C and newly constructed district heating systems indicate a wide range in system levelized cost of heat (LCOH) values ranging from ~$15/MMBtu to over $1,000/MMBtu, with most the attractive regions urban areas with high total thermal demand and high thermal demand density. We estimate about 60 GWth in potential installed capacity with LCOH values under $50/MMBtu and 100 GWth in potential capacity with LCOH values under $100/MMBtu, respectively.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Electrically Accelerated Mechanochemical Film Formation by a Phosphonium Phosphate Ionic Liquid: An In Situ Chemical Kinetics Investigation

Powertrains in electric vehicles are exposed to stray currents that accelerate wear and cause failure of mechanical components. These durability issues are further aggravated when using low-viscosity lubricants, which are desired for energy efficiency but create harsher contact conditions at sliding interfaces. This study investigates a phosphonium phosphate ionic liquid as a performance-enhancing additive in a low-viscosity base oil for lubricating electrified sliding interfaces. Ionic liquids can adsorb and react on contact interfaces via stress-assisted chemical reactions, generating nanometric tribofilms that provide protection against wear. However, the effect of electric fields on the mechanochemistry of ionic liquids is poorly understood, hindering their adoption in lubricants for electrified powertrains. This article reports an in situ optical interferometry study of ionic liquid derived tribofilm growth kinetics at stressed sliding/rolling interfaces under direct currents. The application of electric currents accelerated tribofilm formation up to a critical current density (∼1.4 A/mm 2 ), beyond which pitting-induced wear dominated. The tribofilms were composed of iron phosphates, iron oxides, and carbon species, with iron oxides becoming predominant under applied currents. These tribofilms prevented the scuffing failure of steel surfaces under electrified conditions. Based on the results, a kinetic model is proposed that integrates electric current effect into the classical stress-assisted thermal activation framework to allow prediction of tribofilm growth at electrified sliding contacts. This framework provides crucial guidance for designing next-generation lubricants for electrified transportation and power generation systems.

additives↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hydrogen Production and Li-Ion Battery Performance with MoS2-SiNWs-SWNTs@ZnONPs Nanocomposites

This study explores the hydrogen generation potential via water-splitting reactions under UV-vis radiation by using a synergistic assembly of ZnO nanoparticles integrated with MoS2, single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWNTs), and crystalline silicon nanowires (SiNWs) to create the MoS2-SiNWs-SWNTs@ZnONPs nanocomposites. A comparative analysis of MoS2 synthesized through chemical and physical exfoliation methods revealed that the chemically exfoliated MoS2 exhibited superior performance, thereby being selected for all subsequent measurements. The nanostructured materials demonstrated exceptional surface characteristics, with specific surface areas exceeding 300 m2 g−1. Notably, the hydrogen production rate achieved by a composite comprising 5% MoS2, 1.7% SiNWs, and 13.3% SWNTs at an 80% ZnONPs base was approximately 3909 µmol h−1g−1 under 500 nm wavelength radiation, marking a significant improvement of over 40-fold relative to pristine ZnONPs. This enhancement underscores the remarkable photocatalytic efficiency of the composites, maintaining high hydrogen production rates above 1500 µmol h−1g−1 even under radiation wavelengths exceeding 600 nm. Furthermore, the potential of these composites for energy storage and conversion applications, specifically within rechargeable lithium-ion batteries, was investigated. Composites, similar to those utilized for hydrogen production but excluding ZnONPs to address its limited theoretical capacity and electrical conductivity, were developed. The focus was on utilizing MoS2, SiNWs, and SWNTs as anode materials for Li-ion batteries. This strategic combination significantly improved the electronic conductivity and mechanical stability of the composite. Specifically, the composite with 56% MoS2, 24% SiNWs, and 20% SWNTs offered remarkable cyclic performance with high specific capacity values, achieving a complete stability of 1000 mA h g−1 after 100 cycles at 1 A g−1. These results illuminate the dual utility of the composites, not only as innovative catalysts for hydrogen production but also as advanced materials for energy storage technologies, showcasing their potential in contributing to sustainable energy solutions.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2026

Thermal property characterization of phase change materials in building applications: A systematic review of fundamentals, recent progress, and future directions

Phase change materials (PCMs) can reduce building peak loads and enable demand-responsive thermal energy storage (TES), but their deployment depends on reliable measurement and interpretation of thermal properties across laboratory, intermediate, and application scales. Here, this review systematically examines characterization methods, testing protocols, and recent advances for neat PCMs and PCM composites, emphasizing thermal conductivity, enthalpy-related properties (phase change temperature, latent heat, specific heat), and cycling stability. For thermal conductivity, we compare steady-state and transient techniques and note limitations when phase transition and contact resistance affect measurements. For enthalpy–temperature characterization, we discuss differential scanning calorimetry together with intermediate- and bulk-scale methods, including T-history, heat flow meter testing, and three-layer calorimetry (3LC), to generate application-relevant enthalpy–temperature profiles. Cycling stability is organized into four experimental families: thermoelectric–air, fully thermoelectric, water-bath, and in situ chamber approaches, with attention to separating reversible supercooling from true degradation such as phase segregation. We highlight emerging noncontact diagnostics, including infrared thermography and embedded sensing, for spatially resolved validation and multiscale interpretation. Finally, we review the growing use of AI and machine learning for property prediction, inverse characterization from experimental signals, and real-time state estimation in building-integrated TES. Key needs include harmonized protocols, interlaboratory benchmarking, uncertainty reporting, and metadata-rich datasets to accelerate reproducible PCM qualification for grid-flexible buildings.

AI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Intensified atomic utilization efficiency of single-atom catalysts for nitrate conversion via electrified nanoporous membrane

Conventional electrochemical reactors for nitrate reduction typically suffer from limited reaction efficiency when applied for real-world water treatment due to poor utilization of electrocatalytic active sites. Here, we applied nanoporous electrofiltration to intensify atomic utilization by incorporating single-atom catalysts into an electrified membrane for reducing low-concentration nitrate to ammonia under realistic water conditions. We enhance the exposure of single atoms in nanopores by coating the catalysts on a carbon nanotube–interwoven membrane framework. Electrofiltration intensifies the transport and adsorption of nitrate in confined nanopores with highly exposed single-atom active sites to enhance reduction. The membrane enables a superior ammonia turnover frequency of 15.1 grams of nitrogen per gram of metal per hour, up to four orders of magnitude higher than that reported in the literature, under both high removal efficiency and Faradaic efficiency of over 86% when treating influents with a low nitrate concentration of 100 milligrams of nitrogen per liter in a residence time on the order of seconds.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bridging Additive Manufacturing and Electronics Printing in the Age of AI

Printing techniques have been instrumental in developing flexible and stretchable electronics, including organic light-emitting diode displays, organic thin film transistor arrays, electronic skins, organic electrochemical transistors for biosensors and neuromorphic computing, as well as flexible solar cells with low-cost processes such as inkjet printing, ultrasonic nozzle, roll-to-roll coating. The rise of additive manufacturing provides even more opportunities to print electronics in automated and customizable ways. In this work, we will review the current technologies of printing electronics (including printed batteries, supercapacitors, fuel cells, and sensors), especially with 3D printing. In this age of ongoing AI revolution, the application of AI algorithms is discussed in terms of combining them with 3D printing and electronics printing for a future with automated optimization, sustainable design, and customizable and scalable manufacturing.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2026

SILICON CARBIDE THERMOMETRY USING RAMAN SPECTROSCOPY ON IRRADIATED TRISO PARTICLES

Silicon carbide (SiC) passive thermometry has emerged as a promising post-irradiation examination (PIE) technique for estimating irradiation temperature near the end of irradiation. While dilatometry techniques have been traditionally used to analyze prismatic samples after irradiation, Raman spectroscopy has recently been shown to provide comparable results by analyzing Raman-active phonon modes. In this work, Raman spectroscopy has been applied to the SiC layer of cross-sectioned irradiation tristructural isotropic (TRISO) particles from the AGR-5/6/7 experiment to evaluate the feasibility of particle-scale passive thermometry. Two-dimensional Raman mapping was used to measure the position of the SiC longitudinal optical (LO) phonon, which was then converted to an apparent irradiation temperature using a previously established empirical correlation. Particles from AGR-5/6/7 Compacts 2-2-1 and 5-1-3 were selected as their calculated time-averaged, volume-averaged (TAVA) temperatures (828°C and 706°C, respectively) fall within the range of the sensitivity of the experimental approach. The use of SiC thermometry was anticipated to confirm or highlight potential deviations from calculated end-of-life TAVA temperature across compacts. Four particles from Compact 2-2-1 and two particles from Compact 5-1-3 were selected based on 110mAg inventory (either some measurable activity or below the minimum detection limit) which is commonly used as an indicator of in-pile temperature variation of particles within the same compact. Across every particle selected it was determined that the average LO peak position was located around 968 cm-1 to 969 cm-1. Using the previously determined empirical correlation, this corresponds to an irradiation temperature around 950°C to 966°C, which does not align with the reported TAVA temperature values. This discrepancy in apparent irradiation temperatures likely reflects a combination of uncertainties in the calculated particle temperatures and differences in irradiation history between the present specimens and those used to establish the empirical Raman calibration such as neutron flux (damage rate) and SiC microstructure (as fabricated and irradiated).

Vawdrey, Josh [ORNL]↗
DOE OSTI2026

Revolutionizing thermal Management in Next-Generation AI data centers: Challenges and breakthrough innovations

Data centers (DCs) serve as critical infrastructure for powering the growth and evolution of AI. Next-generation AI DCs present unique challenges in thermal management driven by unprecedented computational demands. This paper provides a comprehensive summary of key stakeholder perspectives on technology gaps, infrastructure requirements, test bed needs, emerging opportunities, and preliminary solutions related to thermal management for AI DCs. It establishes six strategic pillars of thermal management for next generation AI DC: reliability, deployability, efficiency, resilience, measurability, and valorization. The discussion spans a range of critical topics, including advanced cooling technologies, thermal strategies for emerging modular and edge DCs, system-level optimization and control frameworks, infrastructure planning and grid integration designs, benchmarking approaches, and pathways for waste heat recovery and reuse. The proposed research, development, and demonstration efforts are aimed at accelerating the deployment of AI DCs while ensuring energy efficiency, reliability, safety, and regulatory compliance.

Wang, Pengtao [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000214713429)↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Role of Nuclear Data Sensitivities in Prompt α-Eigenvalue Predictions of Delayed Critical Benchmarks

Alpha (α) eigenvalues, which describe the logarithmic time derivative of the neutron population in a multiplying system, are integral to time-dependent behavior and diagnostic applications. However, uncertainties in the evaluated nuclear data can significantly impact the accuracy of transport simulations for such quantities. This work explores the use of machine learning models to predict two key outputs, α-eigenvalues and keff bias, using input features derived from α-eigenvalue sensitivities to nuclear data. The criticality safety benchmark models used in this study come from the International Handbook of Evaluated Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiments. Three models, random forest, XGBoost, and NGBoost, are trained on both energy-resolved and energy-summed α sensitivities. For the α-eigenvalue bias prediction, NGBoost achieved the highest R 2 (0.9476) using energy-resolved features, while XGBoost performed best using summed sensitivities. In contrast, when predicting the keff bias, all the models showed moderate predictive capability (best R 2 ≈ 0.72), as the mapping from the static α-sensitivities to the static keff bias was less direct. SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis was used to interpret the model predictions. Across both prediction tasks, the features associated with neutron capture [H-1 (n, γ)], uranium scattering reactions (such as 235 U elastic/inelastic), and actinide capture/fission reactions (such as 239 Pu and 234 U) were consistently identified as the most impactful. This highlights the key role of specific nuclear reactions and energy ranges in shaping both time-dependent and steady-state criticality behavior. These results demonstrated that α-sensitivities, despite being computed for time-dependent metrics, can provide valuable insights for predicting both α-eigenvalues and the keff bias. Moreover, machine learning models offer a promising pathway for uncovering important nuclear data dependencies and guiding future data evaluation efforts.

Nuclear data↗
DOE OSTI2026

Divergent trait controls on soluble sugars and starch underlie global strategies of tree carbohydrate storage

Nonstructural carbohydrate (NSC) stores buffer tree metabolism, osmotic regulation, and defense, thereby mediating tolerance and survival under climate extremes. Yet, the functional and evolutionary determinants of interspecific variation in NSC remain elusive, limiting understanding and prediction of forest carbon allocation and mortality under global change. Here, we present a cross-species synthesis of NSC concentrations across multiple organs for 281 woody species from 102 mixed forest communities worldwide, where we quantified species-specific deviations from community means to disentangle intrinsic trait effects from environmental and methodological variation. We found phylogenetic signals in NSC deviations, with coniferous gymnosperms and evergreen species consistently maintaining lower stem soluble sugars and starch concentrations than co-occurring angiosperms and deciduous species, respectively. A global pattern emerged where greater stomatal sensitivity to leaf water potential was associated with declines in the relative concentrations of both sugars and starch. In contrast, xylem hydraulic safety traits showed weak and organ-dependent relationships with NSC concentrations. Sugars increased with photosynthetic capacity and declined with wood density, whereas starch showed the reverse pattern, which aligned with the distinct functional-metabolic roles of sugars and starch. By integrating trait-based ecology with a community-centered framework, our study provides global evidence that stomatal regulation, photosynthetic capacity, specific leaf area, and wood density jointly govern interspecific NSC variation, through contrasting effects on sugars and starch. These are among the most broadly measured traits globally, thus the emergent carbohydrate–trait relationships can have broad applications toward understanding and predicting forest growth and survival under climate change.

tropic system↗