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At least 199 records · Page 11

Vegetation forcing modulates global land monsoon and water resources in a CO 2 -enriched climate

The global monsoon is characterised by transitions between pronounced dry and wet seasons, affecting food security for two-thirds of the world’s population. Rising atmospheric CO 2 influences the terrestrial hydrological cycle through climate-radiative and vegetation-physiological forcings. How these two forcings affect the seasonal intensity and characteristics of monsoonal precipitation and runoff is poorly understood. Here we use four Earth System Models to show that in a CO 2 -enriched climate, radiative forcing changes drive annual precipitation increases for most monsoon regions. Further, vegetation feedbacks substantially affect annual precipitation in North and South America and Australia monsoon regions. In the dry season, runoff increases over most monsoon regions, due to stomatal closure-driven evapotranspiration reductions and associated atmospheric circulation change. Our results imply that flood risks may amplify in the wet season. However, the lengthening of the monsoon rainfall season and reduced evapotranspiration will shorten the water resources scarcity period for most monsoon regions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Fingerprints of external forcings on Sahel rainfall: aerosols, greenhouse gases, and model-observation discrepancies

Over the 20th and 21st centuries, both anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases and changes in anthropogenic aerosols have affected rainfall in the Sahel. Using multiple characteristics of Sahel precipitation, we construct a multivariate fingerprint that allows us to distinguish between the model-predicted responses to greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols. Models project the emergence of a detectable signal of aerosol forcing in the middle of the 20th century and a detectable signal of greenhouse gas forcing at the beginning of the 21st. However, the signals of both aerosol and greenhouse gas forcing in observations emerge earlier and are stronger than in the models, far stronger in the case of aerosols. The similarity between the response to aerosol forcing and the leading mode of internal variability makes it difficult to attribute this model-observation discrepancy to errors in the forcing, errors in the forced response, model inability to capture the amplitude of internal variability, or some combination of these. For greenhouse gases, however, the forced response is distinct from internal variability as estimated by models, and the observations are largely commensurate with the model projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Aerosol size distribution properties associated with cold-air outbreaks in the Norwegian Arctic

The aerosol particles serving as cloud condensation and ice nuclei contribute to key cloud processes associated with cold-air outbreak (CAO) events but are poorly constrained in climate models due to sparse observations. Here we retrieve aerosol number size distribution modes from measurements at Andenes, Norway, during the Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (COMBLE) and at Zeppelin Observatory, approximately 1000 km upwind from Andenes at Svalbard. During CAO events at Andenes, the sea-spray-mode number concentration is correlated with strong over-ocean winds with a mean of 8±4 cm −3 that is 71 % higher than during non-CAO conditions. Additionally, during CAO events at Andenes, the mean Hoppel minimum diameter is 6 nm smaller than during non-CAO conditions, though the estimated supersaturation is lower, and the mean number concentration of particles that likely activated in-cloud is 109±61 cm −3 with no statistically significant difference from the non-CAO mean of 99±66 cm −3 . For CAO trajectories between Zeppelin Observatory and Andenes, the upwind-to-downwind change in number concentration is the largest for the accumulation mode with a mean decrease of 93±95 cm −3 , likely attributable primarily to precipitation scavenging. These characteristic properties of aerosol number size distributions during CAO events provide guidance for evaluating CAO aerosol–cloud interaction processes in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Systematic and objective evaluation of Earth system models: PCMDI Metrics Package (PMP) version 3

Systematic, routine, and comprehensive evaluation of Earth system models (ESMs) facilitates benchmarking improvement across model generations and identifying the strengths and weaknesses of different model configurations. By gauging the consistency between models and observations, this endeavor is becoming increasingly necessary to objectively synthesize the thousands of simulations contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) to date. The Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) Metrics Package (PMP) is an open-source Python software package that provides quick-look objective comparisons of ESMs with one another and with observations. The comparisons include metrics of large- to global-scale climatologies, tropical inter-annual and intra-seasonal variability modes such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), extratropical modes of variability, regional monsoons, cloud radiative feedbacks, and high-frequency characteristics of simulated precipitation, including its extremes. The PMP comparison results are produced using all model simulations contributed to CMIP6 and earlier CMIP phases. An important objective of the PMP is to document the performance of ESMs participating in the recent phases of CMIP, together with providing version-controlled information for all datasets, software packages, and analysis codes being used in the evaluation process. Among other purposes, this also enables modeling groups to assess performance changes during the ESM development cycle in the context of the error distribution of the multi-model ensemble. Quantitative model evaluation provided by the PMP can assist modelers in their development priorities. In this paper, we provide an overview of the PMP, including its latest capabilities, and discuss its future direction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Scientific challenges to characterizing the wind resource in the marine atmospheric boundary layer

Abstract. With the increasing level of offshore wind energy investment, it is correspondingly important to be able to accurately characterize the wind resource in terms of energy potential as well as operating conditions affecting wind plant performance, maintenance, and lifespan. Accurate resource assessment at a particular site supports investment decisions. Following construction, accurate wind forecasts are needed to support efficient power markets and integration of wind power with the electrical grid. To optimize the design of wind turbines, it is necessary to accurately describe the environmental characteristics, such as precipitation and waves, that erode turbine surfaces and generate structural loads as a complicated response to the combined impact of shear, atmospheric turbulence, and wave stresses. Despite recent considerable progress both in improvements to numerical weather prediction models and in coupling these models to turbulent flows within wind plants, major challenges remain, especially in the offshore environment. Accurately simulating the interactions among winds, waves, wakes, and their structural interactions with offshore wind turbines requires accounting for spatial (and associated temporal) scales from O(1 m) to O(100 km). Computing capabilities for the foreseeable future will not be able to resolve all of these scales simultaneously, necessitating continuing improvement in subgrid-scale parameterizations within highly nonlinear models. In addition, observations to constrain and validate these models, especially in the rotor-swept area of turbines over the ocean, remains largely absent. Thus, gaining sufficient understanding of the physics of atmospheric flow within and around wind plants remains one of the grand challenges of wind energy, particularly in the offshore environment. This paper provides a review of prominent scientific challenges to characterizing the offshore wind resource using as examples phenomena that occur in the rapidly developing wind energy areas off the United States. Such phenomena include horizontal temperature gradients that lead to strong vertical stratification; consequent features such as low-level jets and internal boundary layers; highly nonstationary conditions, which occur with both extratropical storms (e.g., nor'easters) and tropical storms; air–sea interaction, including deformation of conventional wind profiles by the wave boundary layer; and precipitation with its contributions to leading-edge erosion of wind turbine blades. The paper also describes the current state of modeling and observations in the marine atmospheric boundary layer and provides specific recommendations for filling key current knowledge gaps.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Precipitation criteria guidelines for use in aerospace vehicle development

Guidelines are presented on probable precipitation extremes and characteristics, applicable for NASA space vehicles and associated equipment development. Information is provided on probability of rainfall rates, drop size, drop rate of fall, associated wind speeds with rainfall, snow loads, hail, laboratory test simulation, and rain erosion.

Daniels, G. E.↗

Echo movement and evolution from real-time processing.

Preliminary experimental data on the effectiveness of conventional radars in measuring the movement and evolution of meteorological echoes when the radar is connected to a programmable real-time processor are examined. In the processor programming is accomplished by conceiving abstract machines which constitute the actual programs used in the methods employed. An analysis of these methods, such as the center of gravity method, the contour-displacement method, the method of slope, the cross-section method, the contour crosscorrelation method, the method of echo evolution at each point, and three-dimensional measurements, shows that the motions deduced from them may differ notably (since each method determines different quantities) but the plurality of measurement may give additional information on the characteristics of the precipitation.

Schaffner, M. R.↗

The auroral oval - A reevaluation.

The auroral oval represents a region of auroral occurrence where particular spectral features have sufficient integrated intensity to exceed all-sky camera thresholds. It has been argued that this is not a good representation of the characteristics of particle precipitation or of energy deposition. Consequently, the auroral oval concept may not be a good one to use to order diverse auroral data on a 24-hour basis. Rather, the precipitation patterns for specific energy classes of protons and electrons should form the basis for the interpretation of high-latitude geophysical measurements.

Eather, R. H.↗

Multiple contrail streamers observed by radar

An unusual case of multiple streamers or filaments with the characteristic mare's tail pattern in vertical section has been observed by radar where the generating elements were condensation trails laid by high-altitude aircraft. The contrails were laid perpendicular to the wind, and, as they drifted, a multitude of streamers formed along each trail. The streamers extended from 9 km to the ground. RHI and PPI photographs at X and S band taken over a 2-hr period show the three-dimensional shape of the streamers due to the wind shear. Doppler measurements were also taken. The resulting velocity spectra are very narrow indicating little or no turbulence. Reflectivity factors were measured at various altitudes and show a decrease in reflectivity with distance from the generating line. Fall velocities based on the slopes of the streamer patterns varied from 0.4 to 1.4 m/sec. In general, the characteristics of the precipitation streamers were quite similar to those previously measured in naturally occurring cloud forms such as cirrus uncinus.

Konrad, T. G.↗

Rocket measurement of auroral electron fluxes associated with field-aligned currents

A rocket-borne experiment using an electron and proton energy spectrometer is described, with particular reference to calibration and data reduction procedures. An upper limit of the measured proton flux is found to be 1,000,000 protons per sq cm sec sr keV. The characteristics of particle precipitation observed during flight over the auroral band are evaluated. The electron flux in regions of maximum flux tends to be the most field-aligned in the energy interval with the highest intensity.

Pazich, P. M.↗

Initialization of a mesoscale model for April 10, 1979, using alternative data sources

A 35 km grid limited area mesoscale model was initialized with high density SESAME radiosonde data and high density TIROS-N satellite temperature profiles for April 10, 1979. These data sources were used individually and with low level wind fields constructed from surface wind observations. The primary objective was to examine the use of satellite temperature data for initializing a mesoscale model by comparing the forecast results with similar experiments employing radiosonde data. The impact of observed low level winds on the model forecasts was also investigated with experiments varying the method of insertion. All forecasts were compared with each other and with mesoscale observations for precipitation, mass and wind structure. Several forecasts produced convective precipitation systems with characteristics satisfying criteria for a mesoscale convective complex. High density satellite temperature data and balanced winds can be used in a mesoscale model to produce forecasts which verify favorably with observations.

Kalb, M. W.↗

Persistent Nature of Secondary Diurnal Modes of Precipitation over Oceanic and Continental Regimes

This investigation seeks a better understanding of the assorted mechanisms controlling the global distribution of precipitation diurnal variability based on the use of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) microwave radiometer and radar data. The horizontal distributions of precipitation's diurnal cycle are derived from eight years of TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and Precipitation Radar (PR) measurements involving three TRMM standard rain rate retrieval algorithms -- the resultant distributions analyzed at various spatiotemporal scales. The results reveal the prominent and expected late-evening to early-morning (LE-EM) precipitation maxima over oceans and the counterpart prominent and expected mid- to late-afternoon (MLA) maxima over continents. Moreover, and not generally recognized, the results reveal a widespread distribution of secondary maxima occurring over both oceans and continents -- maxima which generally mirror their counterpart regime's behavior. That is, many ocean regions exhibit clearcut secondary MLA precipitation maxima while many continental regions exhibit just as evident secondary LE-EM maxima. This investigation is the first comprehensive study of these globally prevalent secondary maxima and their widespread nature, a type of study only made possible when the analysis procedure is applied to a high-quality global-scale precipitation dataset. The characteristics of the secondary maxima are mapped and described on global grids using an innovative clock-face format, while a current study to be published at a later date provides physically-based explanations of the seasonal-regional distributions of the secondary maxima. In addition to an "explicit" maxima identification scheme, a "Fourier decomposition" maxima identification scheme is used to examine the amplitude and phase properties of the primary and secondary maxima -- as well as tertiary and quaternary maxima. Accordingly, the advantages, ambiguities, and pitfalls resulting from use of Fourier harmonic analysis are explained.

Yang, S.↗

Fingerprints of External Forcing Agents on Sahel Rainfall: Aerosols, Greenhouse Gases, and Model-Observation Discrepancies

Over the 20th and 21st centuries, both anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases and changes in anthropogenic aerosols have affected rainfall in the Sahel. Using multiple characteristics of Sahel precipitation, we construct a multivariate fingerprint that allows us to distinguish between the model-predicted responses to greenhouse gases and anthropogenic aerosols. Models project the emergence of a detectable signal of aerosol forcing in the middle of the 20th century and a detectable signal of greenhouse gas forcing at the beginning of the 21st. However, the signals of both aerosol and greenhouse gas forcing in observations emerge earlier and are stronger than in the models, far stronger in the case of aerosols. The similarity between the response to aerosol forcing and the leading mode of internal variability makes it difficult to attribute this model-observation discrepancy to errors in the forcing, errors in the forced response, model inability to capture the amplitude of internal variability, or some combination of these. For greenhouse gases, however, the forced response is distinct from internal variability as estimated by models, and the observations are largely commensurate with the model projections.

Sahel↗

Cloud-Precipitation Hybrid Regimes and their Projection onto IMERG Precipitation Data

We extend and enhance the concept of the Cloud Regimes (CRs) developed from two-dimensional joint histograms of cloud optical thickness and cloud top pressure from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), by adding precipitation information in order to better understand cloud-precipitation relationships. Taking advantage of the high-resolution Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) precipitation dataset, cloud-precipitation “hybrid” regimes are derived by implementing the k-means clustering algorithm with advanced initialization and objective measures to determine the most optimal clusters. By expressing precipitation rates within 1-degree grid cell as histograms and making choices on the relative weight of cloud and precipitation, we could obtain several editions of hybrid cloud-precipitation regimes (CPRs), and examine their characteristics. In the deep tropics, when precipitation is weighted weakly, the cloud part of the hybrid entroids resembles the centroid of cloud-only regimes, but still tightens the cloud-precipitation relationship by decreasing the precipitation variability of each regime. As precipitation weight progressively increases, the shape of the cloudy part of the hybrid centroids becomes blunter, while the precipitation part of the centroids sharpens. In the case where cloud and precipitation are weighted equally, the CPRs representing high clouds with intermediate to heavy precipitation exhibit distinct features in the precipitation parts of the centroids, which allows us to project them onto the 30-minly IMERG domain. Such a projection can be used to overcome the temporal sparseness of MODIS cloud observations, which leads to great application potential for various convection-focused studies, including diurnal cycle analysis.

cloud-precipitation↗

Aerosol Size Distribution Properties Associated With Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Norwegian Arctic

The aerosol particles serving as cloud condensation and ice nuclei contribute to key cloud processes associated with cold-air outbreak (CAO) events but are poorly constrained in climate models due to sparse observations. Here we retrieve aerosol number size distribution modes from measurements at Andenes, Norway, during the Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (COMBLE) and at Zeppelin Observatory, approximately 1000 km upwind from Andenes at Svalbard. During CAO events at Andenes, the sea-spray-mode number concentration is correlated with strong over-ocean winds with a mean of 8±4 cm−3 that is 71 % higher than during non-CAO conditions. Additionally, during CAO events at Andenes, the mean Hoppel minimum diameter is 6 nm smaller than during non-CAO conditions, though the estimated supersaturation is lower, and the mean number concentration of particles that likely activated in-cloud is 109±61 cm−3 with no statistically significant difference from the non-CAO mean of 99±66 cm−3. For CAO trajectories between Zeppelin Observatory and Andenes, the upwind-to-downwind change in number concentration is the largest for the accumulation mode with a mean decrease of 93±95 cm−3, likely attributable primarily to precipitation scavenging. These characteristic properties of aerosol number size distributions during CAO events provide guidance for evaluating CAO aerosol–cloud interaction processes in models.

accumulation mode particle scavenging↗

Impact of a Merged Precipitation Data on Global Soil Moisture Variability

Accurate soil moisture information has proved to be important to climate simulations and climate and weather forecasts. However, many difficulties exist that limit our understanding of soil moisture distribution and variability. One of them is the lack of accurate precipitation with appropriate spatial and temporal resolution. Precipitation as an input forcing to the land surface greatly influences soil moisture characteristics and variability. To improve precipitation data quality, an algorithm has been developed to generate a spatially and temporally continuous 3-hourly global precipitation data for the period of 1987 to present. This precipitation product is a combination of the precipitation from Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI) with the Goddard Earth Observing System-1 Data Assimilation System (GEOS-1 DAS) employing a Physical-space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS). In this study we investigate the impact of this merged/analyzed precipitation data on the global soil moisture variability using an Off-line Land-surface GEOS Assimilation (OLGA) system. Two OLGA integrations starting from 1987 to 1993 are performed forced with the analyzed and GEOS-1 DAS precipitation respectively. We examine the spatial and temporal characteristics of soil moisture variability in response to the analyzed precipitation. The influence of this merged precipitation on the soil moisture variability and regional hydrological budget is estimated throughout the comparison with the results forced with the GEOS-1 DAS precipitation only. In the OLGA the sut@-grid scale horizontal heterogeneity is explicitly represented on the tile space. This provides a means to assess the role of the surface moisture heterogeneity in the interaction with the surface atmosphere and surface hydrological budget, and to validate OLGA results at tile space with in situ observation. ABRACOS (Anglo-Brazilian Amazonian Climate Observation Study), FIFE (First ISLSCP Field Experiment) I and HAPEX data will be used in the validation.

Yang, Runhua↗

Mesoscale Convective Systems Tracking Method Intercomparison (MCSMIP): Application to DYAMOND Global km‐Scale Simulations

Abstract Global kilometer‐scale models represent the future of Earth system modeling, enabling explicit simulation of organized convective storms and their associated extreme weather. Here, we comprehensively evaluate tropical mesoscale convective system (MCS) characteristics in the DYAMOND (DYnamics of the atmospheric general circulation modeled on non‐hydrostatic domains) simulations for both summer and winter phases. Using 10 different feature trackers applied to simulations and satellite observations, we assess MCS frequency, precipitation, and other key characteristics. Substantial differences (a factor of 2–3) arise among trackers in observed MCS frequency and their precipitation contribution, but model‐observation differences in MCS statistics are more consistent across trackers. DYAMOND models are generally skillful in simulating tropical mean MCS frequency, with multi‐model mean biases ranging from −2%–8% over land and −8%–8% over ocean (summer vs. winter). However, most DYAMOND models underestimate MCS precipitation amount (23%) and their contribution to total precipitation (17%). Biases in precipitation contributions are generally smaller over land (13%) than over ocean (21%), with moderate inter‐model variability. While models better simulate MCS diurnal cycles and cloud shield characteristics, they overestimate MCS precipitation intensity and underestimate stratiform rain contributions (up to a factor of 2), particularly over land, albeit observational uncertainties exist. Additionally, models exhibit a wide range of precipitable water in the tropics compared to reanalysis and satellite observations, with many models showing exaggerated sensitivity of MCS precipitation intensity to precipitable water. The MCS metrics developed here provide process‐oriented diagnostics to guide future model development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Understanding the Global Three-Dimensional Distribution of Precipitation Mean Particle Size with the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission

This study addresses the global distribution of precipitation mean particle size using data from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. The mass-weighted mean diameter Dm is a characteristic parameter of the precipitation particle size distribution (PSD), estimated from the GPM Combined Radar–Radiometer Algorithm (CORRA) using data from GPM’s dual-frequency precipitation radar and microwave imager. We examine Dm in individual precipitation systems in different climate regimes and investigate a 6-yr (2014–20) global climatology within 70°N–70°S. The vertical structure of Dm is demonstrated with cases of deep convection, frontal rain and snow, and stratocumulus light rain. The Dm values, detectable by GPM, range from ~0.7 mm in stratocumulus precipitation to >3.5 mm in the ice layers of intense convection. Within the constraint of the 12-dBZ detectability threshold, the smallest annual mean Dm (~0.8 mm) are found in the eastern oceans, and the largest values (~2 mm) occur above the melting levels in convection over land in summer. The standard deviation of the annual mean is generally <0.45 mm below 6 km. Climate regimes are characterized with Dm annual/seasonal variations, its convective/stratiform components, and vertical variabilities (2–10 km). The U.S. Central Plains and Argentina are associated with the largest Dm in a deep layer. Tropical Africa has larger Dm and standard deviation than Amazon. Large convective Dm occurs at high latitudes of Eurasia and North America in summer; the Southern Hemisphere high latitudes have shallower systems with smaller Dm. Oceanic storm tracks in both hemispheres have relatively large Dm, particularly for convective Dm in winter. Relatively small Dm occurs over tropical oceans, including ITCZ, requiring further investigation.

Mei Han↗