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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Stochastic Analysis for Long Term Capital Structures, Systems, and Components Refurbishment and Replacement

As commercial Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) pursue extended plant operation in the form of Second License Renewal (SLR), opportunities exist for these plants to provide capital investments to ensure long-term safe and economic performance. At the current time, several utilities have announced an intention to pursue extended operation for one or more of their NPPs via SLR . The goal of this research is to develop a risk-informed approach to evaluate and prioritize plant capital investments made in preparation for, and during the period of, extended plant operations to support decisions for NPP operations. Since the capital investments are influenced by various factors, such as markets, safety and regulatory, the decision-making process of NPP operations should take into account relevant factors for balancing risks, costs and profits. The traditional method of capital budgeting is based on the priority list of candidate projects using economic measures such as benefit-investment ratio, net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return. In the literatures, the problem of capital budgeting or the variant can be represented by an appropriate knapsack problem. The knapsack approach to capital budgeting takes as input as investment, along with the cost and profit of each project. The objective of capital budgeting is to find the combination of the binary decisions for every investment such that the overall profit is as large as possible. The output is a collection of projects to be carried out, and we refer this selected collection of projects as a project portfolio. One limitation of traditional optimization models for capital budgeting is that they do not account for risk/uncertainty in profit and cost streams associated with individual projects, they do not account for risk in resource availability in future years [1,2,3]. Projects can incur cost over-runs, especially when projects are large, performed infrequently, and when there is risk regarding technical viability, external contractors, and/or suppliers of requisite parts and materials. Occasionally, projects are performed ahead of schedule and with cost savings. Planned budgets for capital improvements can be cut and key personnel may be lost. Or, there may be surprise windfalls in budgets for maintenance activities due to decreased costs for “unplanned” maintenance. In these cases, how should we resolve capital budgeting when we have risk forecasts for costs, profits and budgets? One approach we proposed in this summary is to re-solve the optimization models based on assumed statistical distributions of given parameters. If these distributions were not available, a two-stage stochastic optimization approach can be used to provide priority lists to decision-makers to support better risk-informed decisions [4, 5]. In this summary, we will only focus on the first approach.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optimization-Driven Scenario Grouping

Scenario decomposition algorithms for stochastic programs compute bounds by dualizing all nonanticipativity constraints and solving individual scenario problems independently. Here, we develop an approach that improves on these bounds by reinforcing a carefully chosen subset of nonanticipativity constraints, effectively placing scenarios into groups. Specifically, we formulate an optimization problem for grouping scenarios that aims to improve the bound by optimizing a proxy metric based on information obtained from evaluating a subset of candidate feasible solutions. We show that the proposed grouping problem is NP-hard in general, identify a polynomially solvable case, and present two formulations for solving the problem: a matching formulation for a special case and a mixed-integer programming formulation for the general case. We use the proposed grouping scheme as a preprocessing step for a particular scenario decomposition algorithm and demonstrate its effectiveness in solving standard test instances of two-stage 0–1 stochastic programs. Using this approach, we are able to prove optimality for all previously unsolved instances of a standard test set. Additionally, we implement this scheme as a preprocessing step for PySP, a publicly available and widely used implementation of progressive hedging, and compare this grouping approach with standard grouping approaches on large-scale stochastic unit commitment instances. Finally, the idea is extended to propose a finitely convergent algorithm for two-stage stochastic programs with a finite feasible region.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reliability Analysis of Power Grids Considering Component Failures of Variable Energy Resources

This paper proposes an improved model for the reliability assessment of power systems considering component failures of variable energy resources (VER). The inherent intermittency of VER such as solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind farms, along with their susceptibility to component failures, present significant challenges to reliable system operation. These issues, combined with power grid operation and network constraints, complicate the reliable operation of VER-integrated power systems. Here, to address these concerns, this paper introduces a reliability assessment framework that considers VER input variability, its impact on component availability, and their resulting impact on overall system reliability. Stochastic models based on discrete Markov processes are developed to incorporate variable irradiance, wind speeds, and their effects on PV and wind component failure rates. A next-event and state transition-based approach is then developed to integrate the stochastic models into a mixed-timing sequential Monte Carlo simulation framework for composite reliability assessment. Case studies on the RTS-GMLC system demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model in evaluating the reliability of VER-integrated systems.

Pandit, Dilip [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-N↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data-Driven Unit Commitment Refinement - a Scalable Approach for Complex Modern Power Grids

Integration of renewable generation, which is often intermittent and decentralized, substantially increases the stochasticity and complexity of power grid operations. Future power systems planning will require significant computational capability to evaluate balance between demand and supply under varying conditions, both temporally and spatially. The standard approach for generation unit commitment is to use mixed-integer linear programming to find the optimal generation schedule considering ramping and generator constraints. In the future grid this poses computational scalability challenges because generation and demand are not known with certainty due to stochasticity in weather and complexity of the grid. To address this challenge, we present a data-driven unit commitment approach that can efficiently include stochastic weather impacts and contingency considerations to improve unit commitment. Our approach uses graph-based data analytics techniques on solutions to the security constrained (and possibly stochastic) economic dispatch problem to identify potential improvements to a given unit commitment. Recent breakthroughs in fully-parallel stochastic economic dispatch software allow this approach to be scalably deployed. Simulations on synthetic South Carolina and Texas grids show this method can improve grid reliability with security constraints over a set of contingencies, while also meaningfully lowering total generation cost.

Holt, Timothy↗
DOE OSTI2024

Random coordinate descent: A simple alternative for optimizing parameterized quantum circuits

Variational quantum algorithms rely on the optimization of parameterized quantum circuits in noisy settings. The commonly used back-propagation procedure in classical machine learning is not directly applicable in this setting due to the collapse of quantum states after measurements. Thus, gradient estimations constitute a significant overhead in a gradient-based optimization of such quantum circuits. This paper introduces a random coordinate descent algorithm as a practical and easy-to-implement alternative to the full gradient descent algorithm. This algorithm only requires one partial derivative at each iteration. Motivated by the behavior of measurement noise in the practical optimization of parameterized quantum circuits, this paper presents an optimization problem setting that is amenable to analysis. Under this setting, the random coordinate descent algorithm exhibits the same level of stochastic stability as the full gradient approach, making it as resilient to noise. The complexity of the random coordinate descent method is generally no worse than that of the gradient descent and can be much better for various quantum optimization problems with anisotropic Lipschitz constants. Theoretical analysis and extensive numerical experiments validate our findings. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Ding, Zhiyan (ORCID:000000018863403X)↗
DOE OSTI2025

The tensor-train stochastic finite volume method for uncertainty quantification

The stochastic finite volume method offers an efficient one-pass approach for assessing uncertainty in hyperbolic conservation laws. Still, it struggles with the curse of dimensionality when dealing with multiple stochastic variables. Here, we introduce the stochastic finite volume method within the tensor-train framework to counteract this limitation. This integration, however, comes with its own set of difficulties, mainly due to the propensity for shock formation in hyperbolic systems. To overcome these issues, we have developed a tensor-train-adapted stochastic finite volume method that employs a global WENO reconstruction, making it suitable for such complex systems. This approach represents the first step in designing tensor-train techniques for hyperbolic systems and conservation laws involving shocks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Revisiting a Drag Partition Model For Canopy-Like Roughness Elements

Turbulent flows over a large surface area (S) covered by n obstacles experience an overall drag due to the presence of the ground and the protruding obstacles into the flow. The drag partition between the roughness obstacles and the ground is analyzed using an analytical model proposed by Raupach (Boundary-Layer Meteorol 60:375-395, 1992) and is hereafter referred to as R92. The R92 is based on the premise that the wake behind an isolated roughness element can be described by a shelter area A and a shelter volume V. The individual sizes of A and V without any interference from other obstacles can be determined from scaling analysis for the spread of wakes. To upscale from an individual roughness element to n/S elements where wakes may interact, R92 adopted a background stress re-normalizing instead of reducing A or V with each element addition. This work demonstrates that R92’s approach results in a linear background stress reduction in A and V only when the ratio of n/S is small, due to a low probability of wake interactions. This probabilistic nature suggests that up-scaling from individual to multiple roughness elements can be re-formulated using stochastic averaging methods proposed here. The two approaches are shown to recover R92 under plausible conditions. An alternative scaling for the shelter volume is also proposed here using thermodynamic arguments of work and dissipation though the final outcome remains similar to R92. Comparisons between R92 and available data spanning more than two decades after R92 on blocks and vegetation-like roughness elements confirm the practical utility of R92. The agreement between R92 and this updated databases of experiments and simulations confirm the potential use of R92 in large-scale models provided that the relevant parameters accommodate certain features of the roughness element type (cube versus vegetation-like) and, to a lesser extent, their configuration throughout S. Last, a comparison between R92 and models based on first-order closure principles with constant mixing length suggests that R92 can outperform such models when evaluated across a wide range of roughness densities.

canopy turbulence↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dynamic Probabilistic Safety Assessment Studies for Advanced Reactor Using RAVEN

Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is used extensively to evaluate the risks associated with complex engineering systems like Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). Current PSA models are based on the Event-Tree/Fault-Tree (ET/FT) methodology. ET and FT models are static and are based on Boolean logic approaches. In the past, concerns have been raised in the literature regarding the capability of the traditional static modelling approaches to adequately account for the impact of process, hardware, software, firmware and human interactions on the stochastic system behaviour. To overcome the limitations of the traditional approach to PSA, several dynamic PSA methodologies have been proposed. One of the dynamic PSA methodologies used for dynamic evaluations is Dynamic Event Tree (DET) framework which can be used to assess the impact of the parameter variability and scenario dynamics on the PSA model for the initiating event. The DET framework couples the stochastic model (number of component/trains that start on demand, operator action timing, etc.) with a Thermal-Hydraulic (TH) model of the plant. This paper explores the use of DET along with a case study on advanced reactor. The initiating event selected for the study was Class IV power supply failure event. The TH analysis considering uncertainty in various parameters was performed using RELAP5 and Reactor Analysis and Virtual control ENvironment (RAVEN) tool. Based on the uncertainty analysis, it is concluded that the peak clad temperatures (PCT) are within the limits in all the code runs implying a high-degree of safety margin. However, variation in time to reach the PCT was observed among the code runs and the mean time to reach the PCT was found to be around 8590sec (approximately 2.4 hours). Hence, sufficient time margin is available for human intervention and the operator might have a relatively stress-free state during such an accident scenario. Due to the static nature of the traditional PSA models, the safety margin available was lesser, whereas, with the help of dynamic PSA models, one can demonstrate that the actual available safety margin is more in the present case study and is valuable input from the design point of view.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sparse Control Synthesis for Uncertain Responsive Loads With Stochastic Stability Guarantees

In this report, recent studies have demonstrated the potential of flexible loads in providing frequency response services, predominantly due to their availability and cost-effectiveness. However, uncertainty and variability in various weather-related and end-use behavioral factors often impact the reliability of demand-side control performance. This work addresses this problem with the design of a demand-side control to achieve frequency response under load uncertainties. Our approach involves modeling the load uncertainties via stochastic processes that appear as both multiplicative and additive in the power system dynamics. Recently developed mean square exponential stability (MSES) results for continuous-time linear stochastic systems are applied to pose the control synthesis problem which results in an LMI-based optimization problem. Additional costs and constraints are added to the LMI-based controller synthesis to ensure MSES, improve closed-loop transient performance, maximize tolerable uncertainties, and promote sparsity in the controller. Additionally, the fundamental limitations between the tolerable uncertainties and control efforts while ensuring MSES are discussed. Further, the control synthesis problem for the case of the full-state measurement is generalized to the case of partial-state measurements. The proposed control synthesis is illustrated on an IEEE 39 bus system with rigorous studies to demonstrate the role of sparsity, closed-loop transient performance, tolerable uncertainties, and control efforts while ensuring MSES and achieving frequency response.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Current-based metrology with two-terminal mesoscopic conductors

The traditional approach to quantum parameter estimation focuses on the quantum state, deriving fundamental bounds on precision through the quantum Fisher information. In most experimental settings, however, performing arbitrary quantum measurements is highly unfeasible. In open quantum systems, an alternative approach to metrology involves the measurement of stochastic currents flowing from the system to its environment. However, the present understanding of current-based metrology is mostly limited to Markovian master equations. Considering a parameter estimation problem in a two-terminal mesoscopic conductor, we identify the key elements that determine estimation precision within the Landauer-Büttiker formalism. Crucially, this approach allows us to address arbitrary coupling and temperature regimes. Furthermore, we obtain analytical results for the precision in linear-response and zero-temperature regimes. For the specific parameter estimation task that we consider, we demonstrate that the boxcar transmission function is optimal for current-based metrology in all parameter regimes.

Landauer formula↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analysis of leading edge protection application on wind turbine performance through energy and power decomposition approaches

Abstract Wind power production is driven by, and varies with, the stochastic yet uncontrollable wind and environmental inputs. To compare a wind turbine's performance, a direct comparison on power outputs is always confounded by the stochastic effect of weather inputs. It is therefore crucial to control for the weather and environmental influence. Toward that objective, our study proposes an energy decomposition approach. We start with comparing the change in the total energy production and refer to the change in total energy as delta energy. On this delta energy, we apply our decomposition method, which is to separate the portion of energy change due to weather effects from that due to the turbine itself. We derive a set of mathematical relationships allowing us to perform this decomposition and examine the credibility and robustness of the proposed decomposition approach through extensive cross‐validation and case studies. We then apply the decomposition approach to Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition data associated with several wind turbines to which leading‐edge protection was carried out. Our study shows that the leading‐edge protection applied on blades may cause a small decline to the power production efficiency in the short term, although we expect the leading‐edge protection to benefit the blade's reliability in the long term.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optimal experimental design for prediction based on push-forward probability measures

Incorporating experimental data is essential for increasing the credibility of simulation-aided decision making and design. This paper presents a method which uses a computational model to guide the optimal acquisition of experimental data to produce data-informed predictions of quantities of interest (QoI). Many strategies for optimal experimental design (OED) select data that maximize some utility that measures the reduction in uncertainty of uncertain model parameters, for example the expected information gain between prior and posterior distributions of these parameters. In this paper, we seek to maximize the expected information gained from the pushforward of an initial (prior) density to the push-forward of the updated (posterior) density through the parameter-to-prediction map. The formulation presented is based upon the solution of a specific class of stochastic inverse problems which seeks a probability density that is consistent with the model and the data in the sense that the push-forward of this density through the parameter-to-observable map matches a target density on the observable data. While this stochastic inverse problem forms the mathematical basis for our approach, we develop a one-step algorithm, focused on push-forward probability measures, that leverages inference-for-prediction to bypass constructing the solution to the stochastic inverse problem. A number of numerical results are presented to demonstrate the utility of this optimal experimental design for prediction and facilitate comparison of our approach with traditional OED.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Surrogate Hessian accelerated structural optimization for stochastic electronic structure theories

In this work, we present an efficient energy-based method for structural optimization with stochastic electronic structure theories, such as diffusion quantum Monte Carlo (DMC). This method is based on robust line-search energy minimization in reduced parameter space, exploiting approximate but accurate Hessian information from a surrogate theory, such as density functional theory. The surrogate theory is also used to characterize the potential energy surface, allowing for simple but reliable ways to maximize statistical efficiency while retaining controllable accuracy. We demonstrate the method by finding the minimum DMC energy structures of the selected flake-like aromatic molecules, such as benzene, coronene, and ovalene, represented by 2, 6, and 19 structural parameters, respectively. In each case, the energy minimum is found within two parallel line-search iterations. The method is near-optimal for a line-search technique and suitable for a broad range of applications. It is easily generalized to any electronic structure method where forces and stresses are still under active development and implementation, such as diffusion Monte Carlo, auxiliary-field Monte Carlo, and stochastic configuration interaction, as well as deterministic approaches such as the random-phase approximation. Accurate and efficient means of geometry optimization could shed light on a broad class of materials and molecules, showing high sensitivity of induced properties to structural variables.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Challenges and opportunities in verification and validation of low temperature plasma simulations and experiments

This paper describes the verification and validation (V&V) framework developed for the stochastic Particle-in-Cell, Direct Simulation Monte Carlo code Aleph. An ideal framework for V&V from the viewpoint of the authors is described where a physics problem is defined, and relevant physics models and parameters to the defined problem are assessed and captured in a Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT). Furthermore, numerous V&V examples guided by the PIRT for a simple gas discharge are shown to demonstrate the V&V process applied to a real-world simulation tool with the overall goal to demonstrably increase the confidence in the results for the simulation tool and its predictive capability. Although many examples are provided here to demonstrate elements of the framework, the primary goal of this work is to introduce this framework and not to provide a fully complete implementation, which would be a much longer document. Comparisons and contrasts are made to more usual approaches to V&V, and techniques new to the low-temperature plasma community are introduced. Specific challenges relating to the sufficiency of available data (e.g., cross sections), the limits of ad hoc validation approaches, the additional difficulty of utilizing a stochastic simulation tool, and the extreme cost of formal validation are discussed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimal Zeno Dragging for Quantum Control: A Shortcut to Zeno with Action-Based Scheduling Optimization

The quantum Zeno effect asserts that quantum measurements inhibit simultaneous unitary dynamics when the “collapse” events are sufficiently strong and frequent. This applies in the limit of strong continuous measurement or dissipation. It is possible to implement a dissipative control that is known as “Zeno dragging” by dynamically varying the monitored observable, and hence also the eigenstates, which are attractors under Zeno dynamics. This is similar to adiabatic processes, in that the Zeno-dragging fidelity is highest when the rate of eigenstate change is slow compared to the measurement rate. We demonstrate here two theoretical methods for using such dynamics to achieve control of quantum systems. The first, which we shall refer to as “shortcut to Zeno,” is analogous to the shortcuts to adiabaticity (counterdiabatic driving) that are frequently used to accelerate unitary adiabatic evolution. In the second approach, we apply the Chantasri-Dressel-Jordan stochastic action [PRA 88, 042110 (2013)], and demonstrate that the extremal-probability readout paths derived from this are well suited to setting up a Pontryagin-style optimization of the Zeno-dragging schedule. A fundamental contribution of the latter approach is to show that an action suitable for measurement-driven control optimization can be derived quite generally from statistical arguments. Implementing these methods on the Zeno dragging of a qubit, we find that both approaches yield the same solution, namely, that the optimal control is a unitary that matches the motion of the Zeno-monitored eigenstate. We then show that such a solution can be more robust than a unitary-only operation and we comment on solvable generalizations of our qubit example embedded in larger systems. These methods open up new pathways toward systematically developing dynamic control of Zeno subspaces to realize dissipatively stabilized quantum operations. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Microgrid energy scheduling under uncertain extreme weather: Adaptation from parallelized reinforcement learning agents

Microgrids are useful solutions for integrating renewable energy resources and providing seamless green electricity to minimize carbon footprint. In recent years, extreme weather events happened often worldwide and caused significant economic and societal losses. Such events bring uncertainties to the microgrid energy scheduling problems and increase the challenges of microgrid operation. Traditional optimization approaches suffer from the inaccuracy of the uncertain microgrid model and the unseen events. Existing reinforcement learning (RL) - based approaches are also hampered by the limited generalization and the increasing computational burden when stochastic formulations are required to accommodate the uncertainties. This paper proposes a new parallelized reinforcement learning (PRL) method based on the probabilistic events to handle the microgrid energy uncertainties. Specifically, several local learning agents are employed to interact with pertinent microgrid environments in a distributed manner and report outcomes to the global agent, which will optimize microgrid energy resources online during extreme events. The stochastic microgrid energy optimization problem is reformulated to include all possible scenarios with probabilities. The advantage estimate functions of learning agents are designed with a backward sweep to transfer the outcomes to the value function updating process. Two simulation studies, stochastic optimization and online testing, are performed to compare with several existing RL approaches. Results substantiate that the proposed PRL method can achieve up to 20% optimization performance improvement with 4 and 28 times less computation cost than Q-learning with experience replay and multi-agent Q-learning approaches, respectively.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Model data for Flood Frequency Analysis using Stochastic Storm Transposition and an Integrated Surface-Subsurface Hydrological Model

This archived provides scripts and input files used for the implementation of a novel approach to conduct process-based Flood Frequency Analysis using a Stochastic Storm Transposition (SST) and an Integrated Surface-Subsurface Hydrological Model (ISSHM). As a proof-of-concept, this study uses the ISSHM, Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (Amanzi-ATS) model, and the SST model, RainyDay, to conduct flood frequency analysis by simulating the flood response to 5,000 annual synthetic storm events in a ~2000 km2 Southeast Texas watershed.The Watershed Workflow package is implemented in Python3. The Jupyter notebooks can be executed through multiple open-source tools, for example, Anaconda Jupyter Lab, VS Studio Code, etc. Other data files include TXT, CSV, DAT, SBATCH, SHP, TIF, NetCDF, and HDF5 files, which can be read through Python scripts. The input files for the ATS model and RainyDay model have .XML and .SST extensions, respectively, and can be edited in any commonly used text editors.This archive contains:* Scripts and data files essential for generating the ATS model input. It uses the Watershed Workflow package to produce both mesh and ATS input files. * Jupyter notebooks designated for the ATS model evaluation, covering both long-term simulations and 40 rainfall-runoff events.* Input files required to simulate SST storm events using RainyDay.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

DECOVALEX-2023: Task F1 Final Report

DECOVALEX-2023 Task F is a comparison of models and methods for post-closure performance assessment (PA) of a deep geologic repository for radioactive waste. The general aims of Task F are to build confidence in the models, methods, and software used for PA and to stimulate additional research and development in PA methodologies. The task objectives are to motivate development of PA modelling skills and capabilities, to examine the influence of model choices on calculated repository performance, and to compare the uncertainties introduced by model choices to other sources of uncertainty. Task F involves no actual experiment or site. It is a PA modelling exercise that requires the conceptual development of hypothetical repository designs and geologic settings. Because three of the teams were interested in salt and the rest of the teams were interested in crystalline rock, Task F was split into two branches: Task F1 for crystalline rock and Task F2 for salt. This report is for Task F1, crystalline rock. Teams from seven countries (Canada, Czech Republic, Germany, Korea, Sweden, Taiwan, and United States) participated in Task F1. The teams worked together to define the features, events, and processes of the reference case repository and established a set of performance measures. In addition, they defined a set of benchmark problems designed to test and compare modelling capabilities for fracture flow and transport at different scales. The repository design and benchmark problems are documented in a Task Specification that evolved over time as the group honed the specifications. The benchmark problems verified that each team can aptly model flow and transport in fractured media in 1-, 2-, and 3-dimensions. Two general approaches were used for the 3-dimensional benchmarks: discrete fracture network (DFN) and equivalent continuous porous medium (ECPM). DFN modelling involves explicit meshing of each fracture while ECPM modelling aims to capture the effective porosity and directional permeability of each cell in a space-filling mesh as affected by intersecting fractures. In some models, a combination of the two is used, i.e., DFN for large known fractures and ECPM for the rest of the domain. Transport is solved by using either the advection-dispersion equation or particle tracking. Although some variation is observed among model breakthrough curves in the benchmark problems, there is strong agreement in breakthrough behaviour up to at least the 75 th percentile for all benchmarks. At the 90 th percentile, breakthrough results show larger differences, suggesting several models retain substantially higher fractions of tracer in regions of slower moving water. In addition to the flow and transport benchmarks, several teams completed the source term benchmark, verifying capabilities for modelling radionuclide decay and ingrowth, waste package breach, instant release fractions, fuel matrix degradation rates, and radionuclide solubility limitations. The reference case is conceptualized as a generic spent fuel repository at a depth of 450 m in fractured crystalline rock. The repository has 50 parallel backfilled drifts, each with 50 deposition holes 6 m apart. Each deposition hole contains a 4-PWR waste package and bentonite buffer. The rock domain is 5 km in length, 2 km in width, and 1 km in depth. It has 6 deterministic fractured deformation zones and a multitude of stochastic fractures. Teams generally used the ECPM approach for the entire rock or a hybrid approach in which the deterministic fracture zones are modelled with a DFN and the rest of the rock is modelled by ECPM. Of the reference case problems specified, only the results of the initial reference case problem are compared in this report. The initial problem focuses on transport from the deposition holes to the surface, i.e., it neglects waste package performance. Tracers are released at all waste package locations at time zero and tracked for their releases to the near field and ground surface. The water fluxes calculated at the ground surface entry and exit regions of the domain are similar for all models except for two that have considerably lower fluxes. For tracer transport, large differences are observed among models in the magnitude of tracer transported. Much of the difference appears to be due to how the repository is implemented and hence the different degrees of repository simplification. Models that exclude the drifts, buffer, and backfill from the domain tend to show greater release of tracers and radionuclides from the repository. The initial study presented here indicates that major differences in modelling important processes within the repository (e.g., diffusion through buffer and backfill) can produce broadly different release and transport results, especially when those processes are excluded. Even for the models that included all specified features, events, and processes, the results show significant differences and demonstrate the importance of examining multiple modelling approaches in performance assessment. The differences in results observed in this study are expected to motivate teams to either increase complexity in future versions of the reference case models or to improve methods to account for the effects of simplified features and processes. Either way, future improvements in these models are expected to produce results that more closely agree.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗