SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “trajectory prediction uncertainty”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 199 records · Page 11

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Features of Afterbody Radiative Heating for Jupiter Entry

In this extended abstract, a preliminary analysis of a trajectory-based heating and ablation study in the afterbody of a Jovian entry probe is presented. The radiative flux in the afterbody impinging on the backshell of the probe is investigated with and without the presence of ablation product gas. The heritage tangent-slab approximation for radiative heating is shown to underpredict the radiative heating by as much as 50% in the afterbody making the highfidelity, yet computationally expensive, ray-tracing approach necessary to accurately predict the radiative heating predictions. An investigation into the merits of employing the ray-tracing approach for the prediction of the divergence of radiative flux in the afterbody flow field will be presented in the final manuscript. Nonequilibrium effects in the afterbody region will be investigated in the final manuscript including the impact of electron-ion recombination rates. To bound the problem based on the best available knowledge, an uncertainty analysis will be performed. Sources of uncertainty are identified in the ablation modeling, radiation modeling, flowfield kinetics, and thermodynamic properties of select species.

Thermophysics↗

NASA NTRS2006

Design and "As Flown" Radiation Environments for Materials in Low Earth Orbit

A conservative design approach was adopted by the International Space Station Program for specifying total ionizing radiation dose requirements for use in selecting and qualifying materials for construction of the International Space Station. The total ionizing dose design environment included in SSP 30512 Space Station Ionizing Radiation Design Environment is based on trapped proton and electron fluence derived from the solar maximum versions of the AE-8 and AP-8 models, respectively, specified for a circular orbit at 500 km altitude and 51.7 degree inclination. Since launch, the range of altitudes utilized for Space Station operations vary from a minimum of approximately 330 km to a maximum of approximately 405 km with a mean operational altitude less than 400 km. The design environment, therefore, overestimates the radiation environment because the particle flux in the South Atlantic Anomaly is the primary contributor to radiation dose in low Earth orbit and flux within the Anomaly is altitude dependent. In addition, a 2X multiplier is often applied to the design environment to cover effects from the contributions of galactic cosmic rays, solar energetic particle events, geomagnetic storms, and uncertainties in the trapped radiation models which are not explicitly included in the design environment. Application of this environment may give radiation dose overestimates on the order of 1OX to 30X for materials exposed to the space environment, suggesting that materials originally qualified for ten year exposures on orbit may be used for longer periods without replacement. In this paper we evaluate the "as flown" radiation environments derived from historical records of the ISS flight trajectory since launch and compare the results with the SSP 30512 design environment to document the magnitude of the radiation dose overestimate provided by the design environment. "As flown" environments are obtained from application of the AE-8/AP-8 trapped particle models along the ISS flight trajectory including variations in altitude due to decay of the vehicle orbit and periodic reboosts to higher altitudes. In addition, an estimate of the AE-8 model to predict low Earth orbit electron flux (because the radiation dose for thin materials is dominated by the electron component of the radiation environment) is presented based on comparisons of the AE-8 model to measurements of electron integral flux at approximately 850 km from the Medium Energy Proton and Electron Detector on board the NOAA Polar Operational Environmental Satellite.

Minow, Joseph↗

NASA NTRS2011

Thoughts Without Content are Empty, Intuitions Without Concepts are Blind - Determinism and Contingency Revisited

Was the emergence of life a predictable outcome of chemical evolution on earth? Could evolution produce life very different from ours? These are one of the oldest questions in the field of the origin of life that not only have broad philosophical implications but also impact how we approach the problem from the methodological standpoint. Framing the issue in terms of the dichotomy between contingency and determinism is not a fortunate because these two terms in their conventional meaning are neither mutually exclusive nor jointly exhaustive. Determinism, represented in natural sciences by Newtonian physics, relies on the assumption that every event is causally determined by a chain of previous events. In the context of the origin of life it means that once the initial conditions on the early earth have been specified further evolution follows inevitably. Considering uncertainties about conditions on the prebiotic earth, many plausible sets of initial conditions can be defined, each followed by a separate deterministic trajectory. This conventional understanding of determinism does not admit contingency. Further, it has no implications for evaluating how many sets of initial conditions lead to the emergence of life. It appears that a better framing of the problem is as follows: given plausible sets of initial conditions on the early earth how probable and broadly spread are evolutionary trajectories that lead to life? Instead of undertaking an impossible task of specifying microscopic initial conditions for all components of the system one uses a reduced representation of this system and specify only a small set of essential macroscopic parameters, values (or ranges of values) of which can be identified, inferred or estimated from experiment, theory or historical record. The following evolutionary trajectories are still governed by laws of physics and chemistry but become probabilistic and "contingency" is admitted as variations in other variables in the system. A similar reasoning is common in other fields of science, for example in statistical mechanics. Some trajectories lead to life, perhaps in different forms, whereas others do not. Of our true interest is the ratio of these two outcomes. The issue of determinism does not directly enter the picture. The debate about the likelihood of the emergence of life is quite old. One view holds that the origin of life is an event governed by chance, and the result of so many random events (contingencies) is unpredictable. This view was eloquently expressed by Monod. In his book "Chance or Necessity" he argued that life was a product of "nature's roulette." In an alternative view, expressed in particular by deDuve and Morowitz, the origin of life is considered a highly probable or even inevitable event (although its details need not be determined in every respect). Only in this sense the origin of life can be considered a "deterministic event".

Pohorille, Andrew↗

NASA NTRS2018

Characterizing Differences in the Aerosol Plume and Cloud Structure over Ascension Island During the 2016 and 2017 Biomass Burning Seasons

Marine boundary layer clouds, including the transition from stratocumulus to cumulus, are poorly represented in numerical weather prediction and general circulation models. In many cases, the complex physical relationships between marine boundary cloud morphology and the environmental conditions in which the clouds exist are not well understood. Such uncertainties arise in the presence of biomass burning carbonaceous aerosol, as is the case over the southeast Atlantic Ocean. It is likely that the absorbing and heating properties of these aerosols influence the microphysical composition and macrophysical arrangement of marine stratocumulus and trade cumulus in this region; however, this has yet to be quantified. The deployment of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Mobile Facility #1 (AMF1) in support of LASIC (Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds) provided a unique opportunity to collect observations of cloud and aerosol properties during two consecutive biomass burning seasons during July through October of 2016 and 2017 over Ascension Island (7.96 S, 14.35 W). Through the use of AMF1 observations, the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), and back trajectories from the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT), it will be demonstrated that differences in the atmospheric circulation during the two years result in varying aerosol conditions over Ascension Island. When the aerosol plume is overhead, the aerosol loading is higher during the 2016 season as a result of a weaker subtropical high-pressure system. Furthermore, the aerosol plume originates from central Africa in 2016, but further south in 2017. Contrasts in the season-to-season and day-to-day aerosol loading are used to categorize boundary layer cloud and sub-cloud turbulence measurements above Ascension Island using the AMF1 Doppler lidar and cloud radar.

Collow, Allison B. Marquardt↗

NASA NTRS2014

Stardust Interstellar Preliminary Examination X: Impact Speeds and Directions of Interstellar Grains on the Stardust Dust Collector

On the basis of an interstellar dust model compatible with Ulysses and Galileo observations, we calculate and predict the trajectories of interstellar dust (ISD) in the solar system and the distribution of the impact speeds, directions, and flux of ISD particles on the Stardust Interstellar Dust Collector during the two collection periods of the mission. We find that the expected impact velocities are generally low (less than 10 km per second) for particles with the ratio of the solar radiation pressure force to the solar gravitational force beta greater than 1, and that some of the particles will impact on the cometary side of the collector. If we assume astronomical silicates for particle material and a density of 2 grams per cubic centimeter, and use the Ulysses measurements and the ISD trajectory simulations, we conclude that the total number of (detectable) captured ISD particles may be on the order of 50. In companion papers in this volume, we report the discovery of three interstellar dust candidates in the Stardust aerogel tiles. The impact directions and speeds of these candidates are consistent with those calculated from our ISD propagation model, within the uncertainties of the model and of the observations.

interstellar↗

NASA NTRS2000

Stardust Navigation Covariance Analysis

The Stardust spacecraft was launched on February 7, 1999 aboard a Boeing Delta-II rocket. Mission participants include the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), Lockheed Martin Astronautics (LMA) and the University of Washington. The primary objective of the mission is to collect in-situ samples of the coma of comet Wild-2 and return those samples to the Earth for analysis. Mission design and operational navigation for Stardust is performed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). This paper will describe the extensive JPL effort in support of the Stardust pre-launch analysis of the orbit determination component of the mission covariance study. A description of the mission and it's trajectory will be provided first, followed by a discussion of the covariance procedure and models. Predicted accuracy's will be examined as they relate to navigation delivery requirements for specific critical events during the mission. Stardust was launched into a heliocentric trajectory in early 1999. It will perform an Earth Gravity Assist (EGA) on January 15, 2001 to acquire an orbit for the eventual rendezvous with comet Wild-2. The spacecraft will fly through the coma (atmosphere) on the dayside of Wild-2 on January 2, 2004. At that time samples will be obtained using an aerogel collector. After the comet encounter Stardust will return to Earth when the Sample Return Capsule (SRC) will separate and land at the Utah Test Site (UTTR) on January 15, 2006. The spacecraft will however be deflected off into a heliocentric orbit. The mission is divided into three phases for the covariance analysis. They are 1) Launch to EGA, 2) EGA to Wild-2 encounter and 3) Wild-2 encounter to Earth reentry. Orbit determination assumptions for each phase are provided. These include estimated and consider parameters and their associated a-priori uncertainties. Major perturbations to the trajectory include 19 deterministic and statistical maneuvers planned for the mission. The spacecraft is three axis stabilized and has unbalanced thrusters for attitude control. Accelerations due to the attitude control system are treated stochastically. The tracking scenario for the study is patterned after the actual schedule employed during the different phases of the mission. Conventional X-band two-way Doppler and SRA range data was simulated and the standard accuracy for these data types was assumed throughout most of the mission. However, a deweighting scheme was used for the Doppler data during times of low Sun-Earth-Probe angles, especially in the case of the DSM. Optical data is assumed to be available starting at 50 days prior to the comet encounter. The optical data will be used to improve the ephemeris of Wild-2, which is considered crucial to properly target the comet flyby. Results of the covariance analysis are presented for all mission phases. Navigation capability will be discussed in terms of the uncertainty in the encounter B-Plane (B.R and B.T) and linearized time of flight. Delivery errors based on the final maneuver prior to the comet encounter will be presented. The most stringent navigation requirement is for the Earth reentry. The uncertainty in the flight path angle must be less than 0.02 degree (orbit determination and maneuver performance) to assure successful recovery of the SRC. Results presented show that this requirement can be met.

Menon, Premkumar R.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Development of the Orion Crew Module Static Aerodynamic Database: Hypersonic - Part 1

The Orion aerodynamic database provides force and moment coefficients given the velocity, attitude, configuration, etc. of the Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV). The database is developed and maintained by the NASA CEV Aerosciences Project team from computational and experimental aerodynamic simulations. The database is used primarily by the Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GNC) team to design vehicle trajectories and assess flight performance. The initial hypersonic re-entry portion of the Crew Module (CM) database was developed in 2006. Updates incorporating additional data and improvements to the database formulation and uncertainty methodologies have been made since then. This paper details the process used to develop the CM database, including nominal values and uncertainties, for Mach numbers greater than 8 and angles of attack between 140deg and 180deg. The primary available data are more than 1000 viscous, reacting gas chemistry computational simulations using both the Laura and Dplr codes, over a range of Mach numbers from 2 to 37 and a range of angles of attack from 147deg to 172deg. Uncertainties were based on grid convergence, laminar-turbulent solution variations, combined altitude and code-to-code variations, and expected heatshield asymmetry. A radial basis function response surface tool, NEAR-RS, was used to fit the coefficient data smoothly in a velocity-angle-of-attack space. The resulting database is presented and includes some data comparisons and a discussion of the predicted variation of trim angle of attack and lift-to-drag ratio. The database provides a variation in trim angle of attack on the order of +/-2deg, and a range in lift-to-drag ratio of +/-0.035 for typical vehicle flight conditions.

Bibb, Karen L.↗

NASA NTRS2014

A Concept of Operations for Far-Term Surface Trajectory-Based Operations (STBO)

The goal of this far-term STBO (Surface Trajectory-Based Operations) ConOps (Concept of Operations) is to increase the efficiency and predictability of airport surface operations, and reduce the environmental impact, by incorporating a time-based component to surface operations. In the far-term NextGen timeframe, airport surface operations will transition from current-day first-come, first-served operations, to strategically scheduled operations in which pilots are recruited as active participants in meeting the precise time-based goals of NextGen surface operations. The far-term STBO concept includes two-phases. Phase 1 introduces time-based traffic flow constraint points, which divide the taxi route into segments with an assigned Required Time of Arrival (RTA). This Phase 1 approach provides temporal certainty only near the traffic flow constraint points, but not in between. Minimal augmentations to the flight deck are required to support required time of arrival (RTA) management. Phase 2 further increases precision and efficiency by introducing full four-dimensional (4D) trajectories, with an x-y location for all times t. This phase assumes adoption of advanced flight deck equipage enabling higher temporal precision sufficient to support aircraft conformance to 4D trajectories. This allows more precision and less temporal uncertainty at all times along the route.

Surface Trajectory-Based Operations (STBO)↗

NASA NTRS2024

Multiple Probe Measurements at Uranus Motivated By Spatial Variability

Predictably, a major motivation for multiple atmospheric probe measurements at Uranus is the understanding of dynamic processes that create and maintain spatial variation in thermal structure, composition, and horizontal winds. But origin questions---regarding the planet's formation and evolution, and conditions in the protoplanetary disk---are also major science drivers for multiprobe exploration. Spatial variation in thermal structure reveals how the atmosphere transports heat from the interior, and measuring compositional variability in the atmosphere is key to ultimately gaining an understanding of the bulk abundances of several heavy elements. We review the current knowledge of spatial variability in Uranus' atmosphere, and we outline how multiple probe exploration would advance our understanding of this variability. The other giant planets are discussed, both to connect multiprobe exploration of those atmospheres to open questions at Uranus, and to demonstrate how multiprobe exploration of Uranus itself is motivated lessons learned about the spatial variation at Jupiter, Saturn, and Neptune. We outline the measurements of highest value from miniature secondary probes (which would complement more detailed investigation by a larger flagship probe), and present the path toward overcoming current challenges and uncertainties in areas including mission design, cost, trajectory, instrument maturity, power, and timeline.

Uranus↗

NASA NTRS2023

Efficient Two-Way Coupled Analysis of Steady-State Particle-Laden Hypersonic Flows

A direct solution approach for surface erosion in particle-laden hypersonic flows is extended for use in low-cost two-way coupled solutions of dilute gas-particle flows. The Trajectory Control Volume method, which uses a sparse set of probe particles to predict surface erosion distributions on general vehicles, is reformulated for the solution of source terms by mean trajectory subdivision and computing a flux differencing. The approach is verified successfully against a boundary layer solution and shown to agree well with experimental measurements. A representative Mars entry case, with conditions and geometry based on the ExoMars Schiaparelli capsule, is solved with the approach to study the impact of two-way coupling on surface heating and erosion. Results indicate that for realistic loading conditions, heating is largely unmodified compared to one-way coupled results at peak heating trajectory conditions, and no measureable difference is observed in the surface erosion rate. At exaggerated loading conditions high enough to observe coupling effects, the worst case collisional heating can increase heating by up to 60%.

Particle Laden Flow↗

NASA NTRS2016

Performance Efficient Launch Vehicle Recovery and Reuse

For decades, economic reuse of launch vehicles has been an elusive goal. Recent attempts at demonstrating elements of launch vehicle recovery for reuse have invigorated a debate over the merits of different approaches. The parameter most often used to assess the cost of access to space is dollars-per-kilogram to orbit. When comparing reusable vs. expendable launch vehicles, that ratio has been shown to be most sensitive to the performance lost as a result of enabling the reusability. This paper will briefly review the historical background and results of recent attempts to recover launch vehicle assets for reuse. The business case for reuse will be reviewed, with emphasis on the performance expended to recover those assets, and the practicality of the most ambitious reuse concept, namely propulsive return to the launch site. In 2015, United Launch Alliance (ULA) announced its Sensible, Modular, Autonomous Return Technology (SMART) reuse plan for recovery of the booster module for its new Vulcan launch vehicle. That plan employs a non-propulsive approach where atmospheric entry, descent and landing (EDL) technologies are utilized. Elements of such a system have a wide variety of applications, from recovery of launch vehicle elements in suborbital trajectories all the way to human space exploration. This paper will include an update on ULA's booster module recovery approach, which relies on Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator (HIAD) and Mid-Air Retrieval (MAR) technologies, including its concept of operations (ConOps). The HIAD design, as well as parafoil staging and MAR concepts, will be discussed. Recent HIAD development activities and near term plans including scalability, next generation materials for the inflatable structure and heat shield, and gas generator inflation systems will be provided. MAR topics will include the ConOps for recovery, helicopter selection and staging, and the state of the art of parachute recovery systems using large parafoils for space asset recovery and high altitude deployment. The next proposed HIAD flight demonstration is called HULA (for HIAD on ULA), and will feature a 6m diameter HIAD. An update for the HULA concept will be provided in this paper. As proposed, this demonstration will fly as a secondary payload on an Atlas mission. The Centaur upper stage provides the reentry pointing, deorbit burn, and entry vehicle spin up. The flight test will culminate with a recovery of the HIAD using MAR. HULA will provide data from a Low Earth Orbit (LEO) return aeroheating environment that enables predictive model correlation and refinement. The resultant reduction in performance uncertainties should lead to design efficiencies that are increasingly significant at larger scales. Relevance to human scale Mars EDL using a HIAD will also be presented, and the applicability of the data generated from both HULA and SMART Vulcan flights, and its value for NASA's human exploration efforts will be discussed. A summary and conclusion will follow.

Reed, John G.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Navigation Performance of the BioSentinel Deep Space CubeSat Mission

The BioSentinel mission was recently launched aboard the SLS launch vehicle (LV) as part of the Artemis- 1 campaign. The BioSentinel navigation team successfully tracked and guided the spacecraft through a lunar gravity assist to its destination Earth-trailing heliocentric orbit. This 6U CubeSat carries live yeast cells to analyze the effects of radiation at large distances from Earth, becoming the first biological payload in Deep Space. Prelaunch activities included mission design updates, orbit determination rehearsals and the development of a tracking schedule in coordination with the Artemis-1 payload office and the Deep Space Network (DSN). An important influence on the trajectories of Artemis I secondaries was the uncertainty associated with deployment from the Interim Cryogenic Propulsion System (ICPS), the upper stage of the SLS LV. The ICPS was rotating at a rate of 1 rpm; there was also an uncertainty in the spin axis attitude, which translated into an unknown clock angle of deployment. The variability in this angle and magnitude of deployment implied the existence of a non-negligible risk of a lunar impact, which was evaluated for various potential launch dates. We present the results of Monte Carlo analyses and compute the pertinent maneuvers to avoid it. In addition, we present a comparison with the actual deployment once the mission launched by reconstructing our trajectory with tracking data. On November 16th 2022 BioSentinel successfully deployed from ICPS and the navigation team started to receive 2-way Doppler and Sequential Ranging data from the DSN. We processed early data to try to obtain a first ephemeris using Initial Orbit Determination (IOD) methods such as the least squares. Soon after deployment, the spacecraft was tumbling and entered safe mode, creating a period where the tracking data were sparse. The mission team recovered the spacecraft and after four tracking passes, we solved for a first ephemeris that was sent to the DSN for better tracking of the spacecraft. After propagating this first ephemeris solution, we determined that we avoided impact with a margin of a few hundred km from the lunar surface. More tracking data over the next few days (from DSN as well as ESA antennas) allowed for a more refined orbit solution predicting a periselene altitude of 406 km and a lunar eclipse lasting 36.5 minutes. Therefore, BioSentinel operators aborted any correction maneuvers. This periselene altitude also gave us the necessary energy to achieve a heliocentric orbit. The next challenge was due to the necessary adjustments in our orbit determination method due to the large energy boost resulting from the lunar flyby. After a series of tracking passes we were able to get a nominal solution that resulted into a stable trajectory. This paper discusses in detail the navigation performance using the X-band IRIS transponder, as well as the challenges and lessons learned prior to and during this deep space, CubeSat mission.

Andres Dono Perez↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparison Between DSMC and CFD for Hypersonic Planetary Entry Simulations

Hypersonic planetary entry flows span a wide range of Knudsen numbers between rarefied and continuum flows. While computational fluid dynamics (CFD) techniques cannot provide an accurate solution for flows in the rarefied regime, the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method is capable of providing accurate solutions for flows in both in the rarefied and continuum regimes but becomes prohibitively expensive as the Knudsen number decreases. For the purpose of thermal protection systems (TPS) design and post-flight reconstruction, various selected points along an entry trajectory are often solved using hypersonic solvers. The quantities of interest that are obtained from that exercise are generally surface quantities, such as pressure, heat flux and enthalpy. Then, material response solvers are used to either design the heat shield to an optimal thickness based on a choice of material, or to provide in-depth heating profiles through the material at various select locations, and compare with flight instrumentation such as the ones that flew on NASA’s two most recent Mars missions, MSL and Mars2020. While most of the heating is generally experienced during the continuum part of the entry, the heating within the rarefied regime is significant for some atmospheres, and hence the flow solutions need to be computed using the DSMC method. Ensuring consistency between hypersonic CFD and the DSMC is crucial so that reliable surface quantities can be passed to material response solvers. Studies were performed to compare the two methods at various select locations, for both non-reacting argon flows as well reacting CO2/N2 flows. Preliminary conclusions show that, for non-reacting flows, the agreement between the two methods for surface heating is excellent (within expected uncertainties) for a freestream Knudsen number of 0.0006, and gets progressively worse as the Knudsen number increases to 0.06. Continuum breakdown analyses were performed and showed that, in general, the Gradient Length Local Knudsen number (KnGLL) from Boyd and associated criterion (KnGLL > 0.05) seems conservative in predicting zones of breakdown in the flow, and associated errors for surface quantities. Updated criteria of KnGLL = 2.0 and 0.5 appear to be more appropriate for surface and flow quantities, respectively. Furthermore, when studying reacting flows, our studies showed that while flow quantities are highly dependent on relaxation parameters and chemistry rates, it is possible to obtain a good agreement for surface heating, as long as the continuum breakdown is minimal.

DSMC↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparison Between DSMC and CFD for Hypersonic Planetary Entry Simulations

Hypersonic planetary entry flows span a wide range of Knudsen numbers between rarefied and continuum flows. While computational fluid dynamics (CFD) techniques cannot provide an accurate solution for flows in the rarefied regime, the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method is capable of providing accurate solutions for flows in both in the rarefied and continuum regimes but becomes prohibitively expensive as the Knudsen number decreases. For the purpose of thermal protection systems (TPS) design and post-flight reconstruction, various selected points along an entry trajectory are often solved using hypersonic solvers. The quantities of interest that are obtained from that exercise are generally surface quantities, such as pressure, heat flux and enthalpy. Then, material response solvers are used to either design the heat shield to an optimal thickness based on a choice of material, or to provide in-depth heating profiles through the material at various select locations, and compare with flight instrumentation such as the ones that flew on NASA’s two most recent Mars missions, MSL and Mars2020. While most of the heating is generally experienced during the continuum part of the entry, the heating within the rarefied regime is significant for some atmospheres, and hence the flow solutions need to be computed using the DSMC method. Ensuring consistency between hypersonic CFD and the DSMC is crucial so that reliable surface quantities can be passed to material response solvers. Studies were performed to compare the two methods at various select locations, for both non-reacting argon flows as well reacting CO2/N2 flows. Preliminary conclusions show that, for non-reacting flows, the agreement between the two methods for surface heating is excellent (within expected uncertainties) for a freestream Knudsen number of 0.0006, and gets progressively worse as the Knudsen number increases to 0.06. Continuum breakdown analyses were performed and showed that, in general, the Gradient Length Local Knudsen number (KnGLL) from Boyd [1] and associated criteria (KnGLL > 0.05) can be accurately used to predict zones of breakdown in the flow, and associated errors for surface quantities. Furthermore, when studying reacting flow, our studies showed that while flow quantities are highly dependent on relaxation parameters and chemistry rates, it is possible to obtain a good agreement for surface heating, as long as the continuum breakdown in minimal (see Fig. 1). Finally, we studied the impact of the grid refinement on the surface quantities in DSMC.

DSMC↗

NASA NTRS2016

Analysis of Multi-Flight Common Routes for Traffic Flow Management

When severe convective weather requires rerouting aircraft, FAA traffic managers employ severe weather avoidance plans (e.g., Playbook routes, Coded Departure Routes, etc.) These routes provide pilots with safe paths around weather-affected regions, and provide controllers with predictable, and often well-established flight plans. However, they often introduce large deviations to the nominal flight plans, which may not be necessary as weather conditions change. If and when the imposed traffic management initiatives (TMIs) become stale, updated shorter path flight trajectories may be found en route, providing significant time-savings to the affected flights. Multiple Flight Common Routes (MFCR) is a concept that allows multiple flights that are within a specified proximity or region, to receive updated shorter flight plans in an operationally efficient manner. MFCR is believed to provide benefits to the National Airspace System (NAS) by allowing traffic managers to update several flight plans of en route aircraft simultaneously, reducing operational workload within the TMUs of all affected ARTCCs. This paper will explore some aspects of the MFCR concept by analyzing multiple flights that have been selected for rerouting by the NAS Constraint Evaluation and Notification Tool (NASCENT). Various methods of grouping aircraft with common or similar routes will be presented, along with a comparison of the efficacy of these methods.

dynamic weather routes↗

NASA NTRS2011

Orbit Determination of Spacecraft in Earth-Moon L1 and L2 Libration Point Orbits

The ARTEMIS mission, part of the THEMIS extended mission, is the first to fly spacecraft in the Earth-Moon Lissajous regions. In 2009, two of the five THEMIS spacecraft were redeployed from Earth-centered orbits to arrive in Earth-Moon Lissajous orbits in late 2010. Starting in August 2010, the ARTEMIS P1 spacecraft executed numerous stationkeeping maneuvers, initially maintaining a lunar L2 Lissajous orbit before transitioning into a lunar L1 orbit. The ARTEMIS P2 spacecraft entered a L1 Lissajous orbit in October 2010. In April 2011, both ARTEMIS spacecraft will suspend Lissajous stationkeeping and will be maneuvered into lunar orbits. The success of the ARTEMIS mission has allowed the science team to gather unprecedented magnetospheric measurements in the lunar Lissajous regions. In order to effectively perform lunar Lissajous stationkeeping maneuvers, the ARTEMIS operations team has provided orbit determination solutions with typical accuracies on the order of 0.1 km in position and 0.1 cm/s in velocity. The ARTEMIS team utilizes the Goddard Trajectory Determination System (GTDS), using a batch least squares method, to process range and Doppler tracking measurements from the NASA Deep Space Network (DSN), Berkeley Ground Station (BGS), Merritt Island (MILA) station, and United Space Network (USN). The team has also investigated processing of the same tracking data measurements using the Orbit Determination Tool Kit (ODTK) software, which uses an extended Kalman filter and recursive smoother to estimate the orbit. The orbit determination results from each of these methods will be presented and we will discuss the advantages and disadvantages associated with using each method in the lunar Lissajous regions. Orbit determination accuracy is dependent on both the quality and quantity of tracking measurements, fidelity of the orbit force models, and the estimation techniques used. Prior to Lissajous operations, the team determined the appropriate quantity of tracking measurements that would be needed to meet the required orbit determination accuracies. Analysts used the Orbit Determination Error Analysis System (ODEAS) to perform covariance analyses using various tracking data schedules. From this analysis, it was determined that 3.5 hours of DSN TRK-2-34 range and Doppler tracking data every other day would suffice to meet the predictive orbit knowledge accuracies in the Lissajous region. The results of this analysis are presented. Both GTDS and ODTK have high-fidelity environmental orbit force models that allow for very accurate orbit estimation in the lunar Lissajous regime. These models include solar radiation pressure, Earth and Moon gravity models, third body gravitational effects from the Sun, and to a lesser extent third body gravitational effects from Jupiter, Venus, Saturn, and Mars. Increased position and velocity uncertainties following each maneuver, due to small execution performance errors, requires that several days of post-maneuver tracking data be processed to converge on an accurate post-maneuver orbit solution. The effects of maneuvers on orbit determination accuracy will be presented, including a comparison of the batch least squares technique to the extended Kalman filter/smoother technique. We will present the maneuver calibration results derived from processing post-maneuver tracking data. A dominant error in the orbit estimation process is the uncertainty in solar radiation pressure and the resultant force on the spacecraft. An estimation of this value can include many related factors, such as the uncertainty in spacecraft reflectivity and surface area which is a function of spacecraft orientation (spin-axis attitude), uncertainty in spacecraft wet mass, and potential seasonal variability due to the changing direction of the Sun line relative to the Earth-Moon Lissajous reference frame. In addition, each spacecraft occasionally enters into Earth or Moon penumbra or umbra and these shadow crossings reduche solar radiation force for several hours. The effects of these events on orbit determination accuracy will be presented. In order to plan for upcoming stationkeeping maneuvers, the maneuver planning team must take the current orbit estimate, propagate it forward to the planned maneuver time, and determine the optimal maneuver to maintain the Lissajous orbit for one or more revolutions. The propagation is performed using a Runge-Kutta 7/8 integrator and typically the position and velocity uncertainty increases with propagation time, increasing the overall uncertainty of the orbit state at the maneuver execution time. The effect of orbit knowledge uncertainty on stationkeeping operations will be presented.

Woodard, Mark↗

NASA NTRS2017

Future ATM Concepts Evaluation Tool (FACET) Interface Control Document

This Interface Control Document (ICD) documents the airspace adaptation and air traffic inputs of NASA's Future ATM Concepts and Evaluation Tool (FACET). Its intended audience is the project manager, project team, development team, and stakeholders interested in interfacing with the system. FACET equips Air Traffic Management (ATM) researchers and service providers with a way to explore, develop and evaluate advanced air transportation concepts before they are field-tested and eventually deployed. FACET is a flexible software tool that is capable of quickly generating and analyzing thousands of aircraft trajectories. It provides researchers with a simulation environment for preliminary testing of advanced ATM concepts. Using aircraft performance profiles, airspace models, weather data, and flight schedules, the tool models trajectories for the climb, cruise, and descent phases of flight for each type of aircraft. An advanced graphical interface displays traffic patterns in two and three dimensions, under various current and projected conditions for specific airspace regions or over the entire continental United States. The system is able to simulate a full day's dynamic national airspace system (NAS) operations, model system uncertainty, measure the impact of different decision-makers in the NAS, and provide analysis of the results in graphical form, including sector, airport, fix, and airway usage statistics. NASA researchers test and analyze the system-wide impact of new traffic flow management algorithms under anticipated air traffic growth projections on the nation's air traffic system. In addition to modeling the airspace system for NASA research, FACET has also successfully transitioned into a valuable tool for operational use. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) traffic flow managers and commercial airline dispatchers have used FACET technology for real-time operations planning. FACET integrates live air traffic data from FAA radar systems and weather data from the National Weather Service to summarize NAS performance. This information allows system operators to reroute flights around congested airspace and severe weather to maintain safety and minimize delay. FACET also supports the planning and post-operational evaluation of reroute strategies at the national level to maximize system efficiency. For the commercial airline passenger, strategic planning with FACET can result in fewer flight delays and cancellations. The performance capabilities of FACET are largely due to its architecture, which strikes a balance between flexibility and fidelity. FACET is capable of modeling the airspace operations for the continental United States, processing thousands of aircraft on a single computer. FACET was written in Java and C, enabling the portability of its software to a variety of operating systems. In addition, FACET was designed with a modular software architecture to facilitate rapid prototyping of diverse ATM concepts. Several advanced ATM concepts have already been implemented in FACET, including aircraft self-separation, prediction of aircraft demand and sector congestion, system-wide impact assessment of traffic flow management constraints, and wind-optimal routing.

FACET↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Advancement of Entry System Modeling to Support Exploration of Giant Planets

This paper describes NASA’s efforts to advance entry system modeling and simulation capabilities to support future exploration of Giant planets. The Giant planets are key destinations of interest to the planetary science community for their potential to provide insight into the formation and evolution of our Solar System, as well as extrasolar planetary systems. To date, the Galileo atmospheric probe is the only purpose-built entry probe to a Giant planet. Post-flight analysis of Galileo’s performance showed that there was significant recession of the thermal protection system (TPS), well beyond what was anticipated on the flank, and this was due in part to insufficiently accurate capability for estimating the flight environment and TPS response. While Galileo ultimately survived its flight, the example serves to highlight the great challenge of designing successful missions for environments that are poorly understood or where models have not yet been validated. An important means to reduce mission risks is the incorporation of physics-based modeling with well-quantified uncertainties. The emphasis on physics-based modeling – in contrast to empirically-driven models – is motivated by the fact that it is impossible to completely replicate entry environments through ground tests and, therefore, extrapolation to the flight environment is required. Basing analysis in fundamental physics removes the bias of ground test limitations, though one must then be careful to properly characterize model inputs, simplifying assumptions, and the limits wherein the model is valid. NASA’s Entry Systems Modeling (ESM) Project is tasked with investigating such considerations for planetary science missions across the Solar System, and in recent years has begun to do so for Giant planets. The most distinctive features of the Giant planets, from an entry system perspective, are the atmospheres composed primarily of hydrogen and helium. The entry velocities of proposed missions are generally very large and can therefore be expected to result in significant convective and radiative heating generated by the vehicle’s shock layer. Yet thermochemical behavior of the hydrogen-helium system is not well understood under such conditions. The ESM project is leading efforts to develop accurate thermochemical databases based on state-of-the-art measurements in the Electric Arc Shock Tube and detailed computational chemistry. The large heat fluxes anticipated by missions has driven interest in new TPS materials, in particular woven materials, which may be enabling but have never been flown before. Consequently, multiscale models are in development to describe properties and performance of the materials from micro- to system-scale. The goal is to not only provide accurate thermal response but also to inform thermostructural reliability predictions for extreme entries. Additionally, new computational models have been developed to evaluate performance of non-destructive evaluation techniques which are vital to establishing acceptance of systems to be free of manufacturing faults like material cracking, voids, and debonding. Finally, in the area of guidance and control, aerocapture has been shown conceptually to provide a number of mission benefits, including reducing transit time and increasing payload fraction. The ESM project is building a launch-to-landing trajectory simulation capability to enable detailed studies of aerocapture maneuvers in the context of Giant planets missions. The final presentation and paper will describe each of these topics in detail, including discussion of specific gaps and the technical approach to solving them. In addition, the final paper will briefly discuss ongoing coordination between ESM project work and an ESA-funded technology development activity comprised of validation testing in the Oxford T6, IRS PWK and IST ESTHER tunnels, as well as state-to-state modeling of the shock layer to better represent non-Boltzmann energy distributions leading to non-equilibrium radiation.

Entry systems↗