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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Mechanistic definition and prediction of the mass exchange coefficient between rivers and hyporheic zones: The $α$ of two $Ω$s

Solute transport in interconnected rivers and hyporheic zones is typically modeled through dual-domain models where first-order solute mass transfer between the two domains, Ω R and Ω HZ , is represented by a coefficient α. The transient storage model (TSM) is an example of such an approach. In practice, α is determined by fitting the tails of solute tracer breakthrough curves using a TSM. This approach has led to ambiguity regarding α’s physical meaning and transferability. Here, in this work, we investigated the physical basis for α and tested it with virtual experiments through the fully coupled multiphysics model hyporheicFoam for the Ω R – Ω HZ system. hyporheicFoam explicitly simulated coupled flow and solute transport over a kilometer with centimeter-scale resolution. Model results were analyzed to calculate α following its theoretical definition directly. Using the determined α within a TSM enables accurate reproduction of solute transport, underscoring α’s physical relevance and precision.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A phase-field fracture formulation for generalized standard materials: The interplay between thermomechanics and damage

Accurately modeling fracture of ductile materials poses open challenges in the field of computational mechanics due to the multiphysics nature of their failure processes. Integrating the interplay between thermodynamics and damage into ductile fracture models is vital for predicting critical failure modes. Here, in this paper, we develop a versatile phase-field (PF) framework for modeling ductile fracture, taking into account finite-strain elasto-plasticity. The framework stems from a variational formulation of constitutive relations for generalized standard materials (GSMs), whose response is described by a Helmholtz free energy and a dissipation pseudo-potential. Its variational structure is based on a minimum principle for a functional that expresses the sum of power densities for reversible and irreversible processes. By minimizing this functional with a constraint on a von Mises yield function, we derive the evolution equation for the equivalent plastic strain and an associative flow rule. This constrained optimization problem is analytically solved for a wide class of thermo-viscoplasticity models. The key innovations of the current work include (i) a cubic plastic degradation function that accounts for a non-vanishing damage-dependent yield stress, (ii) closed-form expressions of the Helmholtz free energy and dissipation pseudo-potential for three thermo-viscoplasticity models, (iii) an extended Johnson–Cook plasticity model with a nonlinear hardening law, and (iv) a plastic work heat source that depends on the plastic degradation function and a variable Taylor–Quinney (TQ) coefficient. The capabilities of the proposed framework are tested with the aid of four ductile fracture problems, including the Sandia Fracture Challenge. In each of these problems, we examine the evolution of relevant field variables such as the PF order parameter, the equivalent plastic strain, the temperature, and the internal power dissipation density, in addition to the overall structural response quantified by the force–displacement curve. These numerical studies demonstrate that the proposed framework effectively represents ductile fracture, yielding computational results that exhibit good agreement with experimental data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Implications of point defect accumulation on UO 2 thermal conductivity and fission gas release under accelerated fuel irradiation

Evaluation of thermal properties is a crucial factor for nuclear fuel performance. During reactor operation, the accumulation of fission products and irradiation-induced lattice defects are responsible for degradation in thermal conductivity. Consequently, it affects fuel temperature and fission gas release (FGR) among other Multiphysics processes important for economics and safety analysis. We analyze the implications of point defects (PD) accumulation described using a rate theory (RT) Model on lattice thermal conductivity of UO 2 . Here, we demonstrate that fission rate-dependent point defect concentrations have the largest impact on in-pile thermal conductivity in the periphery of light water reactor fuels below a temperature threshold governed by the migration barrier of defects. Our analysis provides a mechanistic description of this phenomena which current fuel performance codes treat empirically. The reduction of thermal conductivity in the low -temperature rim region acts as additional thermal resistance and leads to a temperature notably larger than suggested by Lucuta thermal conductivity correlation. These effects are anticipated to have notable impacts when fuels are exposed to accelerated radiation. The impact of such point defect-informed treatment of thermal conductivity on fuel performance is evaluated by a detailed analysis of fission gas behavior and its release. We consider several models capturing different stages of fission gas bubble evolution and fission gas release (FGR). Finally, a new fission rate-dependent correction to the Lucuta correlation is proposed. The results show a significant reduction in thermal conductivity at the fuels’ periphery and an increase in fuel centerline temperature specifically at low burnups. Ultimately a modified LC shows a higher FGR compared to the original LC, while the acceleration process results in a reduction in overall FGR.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Gas-driven short disconnection mitigates thermal runaway in Li-ion batteries under mechanical abuse

Mechanical abuse poses a critical safety risk to Li-ion batteries by inducing internal short circuits that initiate thermal runaway. Remarkably, voltage recovery frequently emerges during thermal runaway initiation, a phenomenon that conventional theories fail to explain. Here, our study develops a new multiphysics mechanism to explain voltage recovery, termed gas-driven short disconnection, whereby internal gas pressure mechanically disengages short-circuit contacts and causes the cell voltage to rebound. This mechanism incorporates gas generation and its structural impact on the short circuit. Real-time optical and thermal imaging and X-ray computed tomography reveal fluid-structure interaction between internal gas flow and adjacent shorting contacts. We establish a mechanistic framework linking gas-driven short disconnection to cell-level voltage and temperature responses, elucidating the extension–truncation pattern of voltage recovery. Furthermore, thermal regime maps show that a voltage recovery duration exceeding 5 s correlates with limited temperature rise below 150 °C, indicating that sustained short-circuit disconnection suppresses Joule heating. Additionally, a dimensionless criterion is deduced from scaling analysis for physical plausibility of gas-driven short disconnection in mechanically abused cells. This finding inspires smart venting control, which regulates gas release to maintain the internal pressure while dissipating gas enthalpy, thereby providing a device-level strategy for thermal runaway mitigation.

Gas-driven short disconnection↗
DOE OSTI2026

Material-dependent photon ionizing radiation effects in Si and GaAs PIN diodes: A numerical investigation

We present a finite-element drift-diffusion-Poisson model in the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) framework to compare the radiation response of silicon (Si) and gallium arsenide (GaAs) PIN diodes under high-energy photon irradiation. The model solves coupled carrier continuity and Poisson’s equations with Shockley-Read-Hall recombination, and is verified against standard analytical J-V behavior. Using a simplified 1D geometry with ideal Ohmic contacts, we quantify device response under forward and reverse bias with a 100 MeV photon flux. Under forward bias, Si exhibits markedly greater radiation sensitivity than GaAs, including larger increases in current density, stronger local field and carrier-product perturbations, and higher recombination. Under reverse bias, GaAs shows larger radiation-induced photocurrent and broader current-density peaks near junctions, indicating an advantage for photodetection. Integrated steady-state recombination is consistently higher in Si across voltages. Under periodic photon pulses, GaAs produces higher-amplitude photoresponse and settles more rapidly than Si. These results highlight material-dependent trade-offs for radiation-tolerant, high-speed optoelectronics and provide guidance for selecting PIN architectures in aerospace, nuclear, and high-energy physics environments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Highly-detailed neutronic and thermal-hydraulic coupled calculations for OPAL reactor using diverse codes and approaches

The industry-standard approach for designing and operating research reactors cores relies on well-established methodologies that consider uncoupled neutronic calculations and a subchannel analysis of the Thermal-Hydraulic (TH) associated problem. Advancements in computing power and codes allow detailed Multiphysics approaches to be implemented, thereby reducing conservatism. In this study, a comparative analysis of results from diverse detailed neutronic-TH coupled core approaches is developed. To address a realistic application case, the comparison is made for a reported critical configuration from the Open Pool Australian Lightwater research reactor (OPAL) at Hot Full Power (HFP) and low burnup. Both cell-core and stochastic methodologies for neutronics are evaluated, whereas two different subchannel codes are considered for TH. In conclusion, the convergence of the coupled schemes, and the consistency of the main parameters are discussed, showing the compatibility of the alternative methods and their ability to offer critical insights not captured by standard practices.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Porous Flow Modeling of Axial Gas Redistribution in Fragmented LWR Fuel Rods using MOOSE

Understanding how gas axially redistributes within fragmented fuel pellets is crucial for predicting the behavior of Light Water Reactor (LWR) fuel rods, particularly during transient and accidental scenarios. The time scale of this phenomenon plays a fundamental role in determining the progression and hazard of a Loss Of Coolant Accident (LOCA), especially when high burn-up fuel in a severe state of fragmentation is involved. Here, this study presents a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model developed within the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) to predict the time-scale of plenum depressurization in Light-Water Reactor (LWR) fuel rods driven by axial gas transport through fragmented pellets. The model examines the effects of incorporating non-linearities in the friction term by comparing the results with experimental data. The experiment employed surrogate fuel rods containing pellets subjected to mechanical and/or thermal loadings to simulate various severity of cracking, and aimed at studying the influence of fuel conditions on axial gas redistribution. The results of this analysis indicate that under certain flow regime conditions - determined by the value of an equivalent Reynolds number - accounting for the non-linear friction term in Navier-Stokes equations guarantees better predictions for the time-scale of plenum depressurization. Also, the model enabled the simulation of the pressure decay by assigning distinct permeability values to each pellet instead of a single uniform value. Multiple simulations were run across all possible pellet position combinations, having each pellet assigned with values of permeability extracted from the experimental data. This allows to quantify the impact of the considering various non-uniform distributions of permeability on the dynamics of axial gas redistribution. The present work findings enhance the understanding of axial gas transport, and provide valuable insights for the integration of a model for predicting the axial gas redistribution during a LOCA scenario into the BISON fuel performance code.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Refinement and demonstration of a coupled BISON-Griffin workflow for designing targeted TRISO transient experiments in TREAT

The U.S. nuclear industry is expected to deploy tristructural isotropic (TRISO) particle fuel technologies for commercial reactors within the next decade. In previous work, we defined a preliminary transient design space for TRISO fuels, identified potential gaps in the available data, and began to develop multiphysics modeling tools that could be applied to design targeted Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT) experiments to fill these gaps. Here, this work builds on that foundation by (1) updating BISON fuel performance and Griffin reactor physics models to reflect the current TREAT experiment tube and capsule designs, (2) coupling the codes to improve the accuracy and usability of the transient design analyses, and (3) demonstrating their use over an expanded design space that includes fuel burnup. The simulated mechanical responses of the TRISO particles were complex functions of fission product accumulation, fission gas release, and irradiation-induced dimensional change in the pyrolytic carbon layers. The predicted tangential stresses in the particles' silicon carbide layers were least compressive for preheated tests involving fresh fuels but remained compressive throughout the ranges of temperature, heat rate, and burnup considered in this work. Finally, comparisons between the potential TREAT transients and historical test reactor irradiations showed that the TREAT tests would produce significantly lower average energy deposition rates, yielding less severe transients with greater relevance to near-term commercial applications. The use of these predictive capabilities has the potential to increase the value of each test, improving the overall efficiency and cost-effectiveness of transient testing for TRISO and other advanced fuels.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Understanding the impact of the gas diffusion layer structure on catalyst utilization in the PEM water electrolyzer

A multiphysics half-cell model of a polymer electrolyte membrane water electrolyzer (PEMWE) was developed to probe impacts of the detailed 3-dimensional pore structure of the gas diffusion layer (GDL) on performance characteristics. We show that pores in the titanium GDL mesh led to significant underutilization of the catalyst layer (CL), with only 45% of the catalyst effectively utilized. This contradicts the assumption of uniform electron flow across the CL, as shown in graphical abstract (a), as near-zero current was observed near GDL pore regions and the current distribution in CL was influenced by GDL structure, as shown in graphical abstract (b). Instead, oxygen generation was primarily concentrated under the solid titanium regions, diffusing out around the pore walls. High current density peaks were also noted at the GDL-catalyst contact, correlating with degradation hotspots that were directly observed in companion experiments, as shown in graphical abstract (c). Collectively, these findings point to the critical importance of the heterogeneous GDL porous architecture not only for PEMWE efficiency but also for uneven degradation of the CL.

COMSOL↗
DOE OSTI2026

Recent progress on coarse graining simulations

We focus on coarse graining simulations based on the primary conservation equations, effectively codesigned physics and algorithms, and low-Mach-number corrected (LMC) hydrodynamics. Simulation methods involve LANL’s x-Radiation-Adaptive-Grid-Eulerian Large-Eddy Simulation, Besnard-Harlow-Rauenzahn (BHR) Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) approach, and Dynamic BHR – a paradigm bridging RANS and LES. A relevant question addressed relates to whether 3D RANS and RANS/LES hybrids – the industry standards for aerospace and automotive research, are presently relevant for practical variable-density applications involving shocked and accelerated interface instabilities. Furthermore, recent simulations of the GaTECH inclined mixing-layer shock-tube and NIF ICF-capsule experiments are used to demonstrate issues, challenges, and potential for 3D coarse grained LMC simulation strategies for robustly simulating complex transitional and coupled hydrodynamics-multiphysics with coarser resolution. Present LES readiness to provide accurate predictions at scale is demonstrated – whereas 3D RANS and RANS/LES bridging do not appear impactful in this context.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty estimation of bifurcated solutions in the Rayleigh–Bénard problem for advanced nuclear reactors applications

Multiphysics models of nuclear reactors frequently comprise nonlinear systems of equations. The nonlinear nature of these models could lead to solution bifurcations, where a small change in a certain parameter, e.g., the thermophysical properties of the coolant, can lead to a sudden change in the system’s behavior. At the point in parameter space where this happens, called a critical point, the Jacobian matrix of the model’s nonlinear operator becomes singular potentially permitting multiple solutions to coexist. In this paper, we perform uncertainty estimation (UE) in a parameter range that includes bifurcated solutions within the context of Rayleigh–Bénard problem. We perform this analysis assuming uncertain temperature difference, and tilt angle for the iterative solution algorithm with a unit Prandtl number (Pr = 1). Also, we perform this analysis under uncertain thermophysical properties for both FLiBe molten salt and liquid sodium as working fluid. We deploy two approaches to compute statistical moments for the resulting distributions of selected flow-field variables. The first approach is the blind computation of the mean and the standard deviation without any consideration of solution bifurcation, while the second approach utilizes k-means clustering to cluster each branch’s solutions together and compute separate statistical moments for each branch. The statistical distributions are obtained by perturbing the selected parameters about nominal values that correspond to a solution on one of the valid branches, and that solution is used as initial guess for the iterative solution algorithm. We found that perturbation of any parameter when its nominal value is close to its critical point always leads to branch jumping, i.e., the iterations converge to a solution on a branch different from the branch of the initial guess. This produces a statistical ensemble comprised of fundamentally different solutions leading to wrong mean values and uncertainty estimates, whereas clustering provides an efficient way to deal with this type of computation. This work is important for developing Gen IV nuclear systems because many of these systems rely on natural convection for cooling especially in accident conditions.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fourier-MIONet: Fourier-enhanced multiple-input neural operators for multiphase modeling of geological carbon sequestration

Geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) is a safety-critical technology that aims to reduce the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which also places high demands on reliability. Multiphase flow in porous media is essential to understand CO 2 migration and pressure fields in the subsurface associated with GCS. However, numerical simulation for such problems in 4D is computationally challenging and expensive, due to the multiphysics and multiscale nature of the highly nonlinear governing partial differential equations (PDEs). It prevents us from considering multiple subsurface scenarios and conducting real-time optimization. Here, we develop a Fourier-enhanced multiple-input neural operator (Fourier-MIONet) to learn the solution operator of the problem of multiphase flow in porous media. Fourier-MIONet utilizes the recently developed framework of the multiple-input deep neural operators (MIONet) and incorporates the Fourier neural operator (FNO) in the network architecture. Once Fourier-MIONet is trained, it can predict the evolution of saturation and pressure of the multiphase flow under various reservoir conditions, such as permeability and porosity heterogeneity, anisotropy, injection configurations, and multiphase flow properties. Compared to the enhanced FNO (U-FNO), the proposed Fourier-MIONet has 90% fewer unknown parameters, and it can be trained in significantly less time (about 3.5 times faster) with much lower CPU memory (<15%) and GPU memory (<35%) requirements, to achieve similar prediction accuracy. In addition to the lower computational cost, Fourier-MIONet can be trained with only 6 snapshots of time to predict the PDE solutions for 30 years. Furthermore, we observed that Fourier-MIONet can maintain good accuracy when predicting out-of-distribution (OOD) data. The excellent generalizability of Fourier-MIONet is enabled by its adherence to the physical principle that the solution to a PDE is continuous over time. Furthermore, the developed Fourier-MIONet makes it possible to solve the long-time evolution of geological carbon sequestration in a large-scale three-dimensional space accurately and efficiently.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Reactor Scale-Up Methodology from Lab-Scale to Pilot-Scale Operations: Numerical Modeling of THFA Dehydration to DHP in Packed-Bed Reactors

This manuscript discusses developing a model-based scale-up methodology for a successful technology transfer of gas-phase catalytic reactors from a lab-scale to a pilot-scale operation. The manuscript demonstrates the methodology for gas-phase dehydration of tetrahydrofurfuryl alcohol (THFA) to dihydropyran (DHP) process over commercial Al 2 O 3 catalysts. A two-dimensional reactor model was developed using COMSOL Multiphysics 6.1 software. The model solves heat and mass transport equations in bed-scale and particle scales simultaneously. This powerful feature enables accurate prediction of the heat and mass transfer limitations in pilot-scale reactors, if any exists. Further, the model uses isothermal lab-scale experimental data to derive and validate the reaction chemistry, flow fields and boundary conditions. The model was then scaled-up to project conversion, selectivity, yield and formation rate of DHP in a pilot-scale reactor. The results highlight the complex nature of chemistry, heat, and mass transfer effects in lab-scale and pilot-scale reactors. The model results inform the possible operational limitations of the pilot-scale reactor and design strategies to improve process efficiency. Although the scale-up approach is explained through the THFA dehydration process, the methodology is applicable to any catalytic packed-bed reactor models for a successful process scale-up.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Models and Measurements Quantify Photon Recycling, Charge-Carrier Diffusion and Photon Scattering Contributions to Photoluminescence in InP Nanowire Arrays

Nanowire arrays present many unique advantages for solar-to-chemical energy conversion. One possible advantage is that photon recycling between neighboring nanowires has the potential to increase solar energy conversion efficiencies. Here, in this work, we explore three underlying mechanisms of optical and electronic coupling between neighboring nanowires─incident photon scattering, photon recycling, and charge-carrier transport from the photoexcited nanowire to the neighboring nanowire via the underlying substrate─using single nanowire-level microscopy and spectroscopy measurements. We present a comprehensive analysis of light absorption and emission of a single nanowire at open circuit, and subsequent re-absorption and re-emission by a neighboring nanowire. We developed a novel correlated single nanowire microspectroscopy and widefield imaging methodology to spatially resolve photon communication pathways between neighboring nanowires and selectively image re-emitted and reflected photons. We developed unique multiphysics models to couple wave optics and semiconductor photophysics to especially isolate contributions from photon recycling and electronic transport to photon emission from neighboring nanowires. By systematically varying the morphologies of the nanowires modeled, we identified pathways to maximize photon recycling between neighboring nanowires. We concluded that the measured photoluminescence is more strongly influenced by the diffusion of charge carriers as compared to photon recycling in materials with moderate-to-large charge-carrier mobilities (>10 cm 2 V –1 s –1 ), and that photon recycling dictates photoluminescence intensity only when the charge-carrier mobility is low (<1 cm 2 V –1 s –1 ). The experimental and simulation platforms developed herein for photon management strategies can be leveraged by the semiconductor photocatalysis community to enhance solar-to-chemical conversion efficiencies in semiconductor nanowire arrays.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Materials Engineering for High Performance and Durability Proton Exchange Membrane Water Electrolyzers

Proton exchange membrane water electrolyzers (PEMWEs) are expected to play a crucial role in the global green energy transition during the 21st century. They provide a versatile and sustainable solution for generating hydrogen with very high purity in combination with renewable energies, such as solar and wind. Despite their promise, PEMWEs face several critical problems, including high costs, performance limitations, and durability challenges, particularly at low iridium (Ir) loading on the anode. Advancing next-generation PEMWEs requires extensive work on materials engineering of all cell components, including the catalyst layer (CL), membrane, porous transport layer (PTL), bipolar plate (BPP), and gasket. This task must be performed with the complementary contribution of different modeling and characterization techniques. This review presents a critical perspective from academia, research centers, and industry, mapping main developments, remaining gaps, and strategic pathways to advance PEMWE technology. A focus is devoted to key aspects, such as operation at low Ir loading, membrane durability, multiscale transport layers, porous and non-porous flow fields, multiphysics modeling, and multipurpose characterization techniques, which are thoroughly discussed. By unifying these topics, this review provides readers with the essential knowledge to grasp current developments and tackle tomorrow's challenges in PEMWE engineering.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

X-ray Micro-Computed Tomography for Structural Analysis of All-Solid-State Battery at Pouch Cell Level

Characterizing the microstructure of all-solid-state batteries (ASSBs) during fabrication and operation is vital for their advancement, particularly as scaling to pouch cell levels introduces challenges in probing large-scale microstructural evolution. This work highlights the potential of synchrotron X-ray micro-computed tomography (sXCT) as a nondestructive, rapid (<30 min), and high-resolution technique for visualizing and quantifying key microstructural features, including overhang, porosity, contact loss, active surface area, and tortuosity, in all-solid-state pouch cells. The large field of view (up to millimeters) of sXCT enables detailed analysis at an industry-relevant scale, bridging the gap between laboratory research and commercial applications. Furthermore, integrating realistic sXCT-derived 3D models into multiphysics simulations could provide insights into chemo-mechanical degradation, particularly at the edges of the pouch cells, offering a pathway for designing robust, high-performance ASSBs. This perspective establishes sXCT as an indispensable tool for advancing both the understanding and the engineering of next-generation energy storage systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Pulsed Electrolysis Promotes Catalyst Activity in Dilute CO 2 Streams

Industrial CO 2 streams vary widely in composition, from pure to as low as 3%, posing challenges for purification or direct conversion. Electrochemical reduction offers a route for converting dilute CO 2 streams but faces severe mass transport limitations. This study demonstrates that pulsed electrolysis effectively overcomes these limitations, enhancing CO 2 electroreduction across variable feed compositions and current densities, particularly at low CO 2 concentrations and high current densities. At 25% CO 2 and 400 mA cm −2 , pulsing improved selectivity from 25.6 to 78.6%, production rate from 13.7 to 21.0 mol m −2 h −1 , and energy productivity from 0.77 to 2.59 mol kWh −1 . A dynamic, multiphysics continuum model confirms a 64% increase in CO 2 concentration within the catalyst layer during pulsing, resolving the transient chemical microenvironment. These findings establish pulsed electrolysis as a viable strategy for converting dilute industrial CO 2 streams into valuable feedstocks, bypassing costly pre-separation.

Orfali, Dania Muhieddine [New York University (NYU↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dual‐Transformer Deep Learning Framework for Seasonal Forecasting of Great Lakes Water Levels

Abstract The Great Lakes of North America form one of the largest freshwater systems on Earth, and their lake‐wide average water levels (lake levels) can fluctuate by more than 0.5 m on a seasonal scale. These fluctuations pose substantial challenges for coastal resilience, flood risk management, and navigation planning. Accurate seasonal forecasting of lake levels using traditional mechanistic models is challenging due to the complex physical mechanisms and coupled hydroclimatic processes involved. Recently, deep learning has gained prominence in geoscience applications for its ability to recognize intricate patterns within multiphysical data sets. Here, we introduce a novel Dual‐Transformer deep learning framework, tested on the Great Lakes. This architecture integrates two modified Transformer models: the Prophet, which predicts underlying trends, and the Critic, which refines the Prophet's predictions. The final lake level prediction is derived by weighting the outputs of both models through a multi‐layer perceptron, jointly trained with the Prophet and Critic to enhance overall accuracy. Our results demonstrate that the innovative learning framework achieves the highest prediction accuracy compared to established deep learning models when using identical input features. It attains a root mean square error of 4–7 cm in predicting lake levels up to 6 months in advance across the lakes. Additionally, the Dual‐Transformer model runs six orders of magnitude faster than conventional mechanistic models, producing results in less than one second on a typical personal computer. These findings suggest that our deep learning framework has strong potential to advance lake level prediction and carries important implications for water management and disaster mitigation, thereby enhancing the quality of life in coastal regions.

Chen, Yi [Great Lakes Research Center Michigan Tec↗