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This viewgraph presentation reviews the radiation exposures and risks associated with long-term spaceflight on the International Space Station. NASA's risk model of cancer mortality is also presented.
These slides describe the data analysis methods that are used to determine inputs for probabilistic risk models supporting the Space Shuttle Program. Other applications can follow a similar path probably using different data sources. Statistical approaches are different and not addressed here. Topics included here: 1) Prior Distribution; 2) Likelihood Data; 3) Bayesian Updating; and 4) Uncertainty and Error. Note: This is a high-level discussion and is not intended to be a tutorial.
Raytheon, in partnership with NASA, is leading the way in ensuring that the future air transportation continues to be a key driver of economic growth and stability and that this system provides an environmentally friendly, safe, and effective means of moving people and goods. A Raytheon-led team of industry and academic experts, under NASA contract NNA08BA47C, looked at the potential issues and impact of introducing four new classes of advanced aircraft into the next generation air transportation system -- known as NextGen. The study will help determine where NASA should further invest in research to support the safe introduction of these new air vehicles. Small uncrewed or unmanned aerial systems (SUAS), super heavy transports (SHT) including hybrid wing body versions (HWB), very light jets (VLJ), and supersonic business jets (SSBJ) are the four classes of aircraft that we studied. Understanding each vehicle's business purpose and strategy is critical to assessing the feasibility of new aircraft operations and their impact on NextGen's architecture. The Raytheon team used scenarios created by aviation experts that depict vehicles in year 2025 operations along with scripts or use cases to understand the issues presented by these new types of vehicles. The information was then mapped into the Joint Planning and Development Office's (JPDO s) Enterprise Architecture to show how the vehicles will fit into NextGen's Concept of Operations. The team also identified significant changes to the JPDO's Integrated Work Plan (IWP) to optimize the NextGen vision for these vehicles. Using a proven enterprise architecture approach and the JPDO s Joint Planning Environment (JPE) web site helped make the leap from architecture to planning efficient, manageable and achievable. Very Light Jets flying into busy hub airports -- Supersonic Business Jets needing to climb and descend rapidly to achieve the necessary altitude Super-heavy cargo planes requiring the shortest common flight path -- are just a few of the potential new operations in the future National Airspace System. To assess the impact of these new scenarios on overall national airspace operations, the Raytheon team used the capabilities of a suite of tools such as NASA's Airspace Concepts Evaluation System (ACES), the Flight Optimization System (FLOPS), FAA's Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT), Intelligent Automations Kinematic Trajectory Generator (KTG) and the Aviation Safety Risk Model (ASRM). Detailed metroplex modeling, surface delay models for super heavy transports, prioritized routing and corridors for supersonics business jets, and VLJ demand models are some of the models developed by the Raytheon team to study the effect of operating these new vehicles in the future NAS. Using this suite of models, several trade studies were conducted to evaluate these effects in terms of delays, equity in access, safety, and the environment. Looking at the impact of each vehicle, a number of critical issues were identified. The Raytheon team concluded that strict compliance to NextGen's 4-dimensional trajectory (4DT) management will be required to accommodate these vehicles unique operations and increased number of flights in the future air space system. The next section provides a discussion of this and the other key findings from our study.
Topics include: Test Waveform Applications for JPL STRS Operating Environment; Pneumatic Proboscis Heat-Flow Probe; Method to Measure Total Noise Temperature of a Wireless Receiver During Operation; Cursor Control Device Test Battery; Functional Near-Infrared Spectroscopy Signals Measure Neuronal Activity in the Cortex; ESD Test Apparatus for Soldering Irons; FPGA-Based X-Ray Detection and Measurement for an X-Ray Polarimeter; Sequential Probability Ratio Test for Spacecraft Collision Avoidance Maneuver Decisions; Silicon/Carbon Nanotube Photocathode for Splitting Water; Advanced Materials and Fabrication Techniques for the Orion Attitude Control Motor; Flight Hardware Packaging Design for Stringent EMC Radiated Emission Requirements; RF Reference Switch for Spaceflight Radiometer Calibration; An Offload NIC for NASA, NLR, and Grid Computing; Multi-Scale CNT-Based Reinforcing Polymer Matrix Composites for Lightweight Structures; Ceramic Adhesive and Methods for On-Orbit Repair of Re-Entry Vehicles; Self-Healing Nanocomposites for Reusable Composite Cryotanks; Pt-Ni and Pt-Co Catalyst Synthesis Route for Fuel Cell Applications; Aerogel-Based Multilayer Insulation with Micrometeoroid Protection; Manufacturing of Nanocomposite Carbon Fibers and Composite Cylinders; Optimized Radiator Geometries for Hot Lunar Thermal Environments; A Mission Concept: Re-Entry Hopper-Aero-Space-Craft System on-Mars (REARM-Mars); New Class of Flow Batteries for Terrestrial and Aerospace Energy Storage Applications; Reliability of CCGA 1152 and CCGA 1272 Interconnect Packages for Extreme Thermal Environments; Using a Blender to Assess the Microbial Density of Encapsulated Organisms; Mixed Integer Programming and Heuristic Scheduling for Space Communication; Video Altimeter and Obstruction Detector for an Aircraft; Control Software for Piezo Stepping Actuators; Galactic Cosmic Ray Event-Based Risk Model (GERM) Code; Sasquatch Footprint Tool; and Multi-User Space Link Extension (SLE) System.
Permissible exposure limits (PELs) for short-term and career astronaut exposures to space radiation have been set and approved by NASA with the goal of protecting astronauts against health risks associated with ionizing radiation exposure. Short term PELs are intended to prevent clinically significant deterministic health effects, including performance decrements, which could threaten astronaut health and jeopardize mission success. Career PELs are implemented to control late occurring health effects, including a 3% risk of exposure induced death (REID) from cancer, and dose limits are used to prevent cardiovascular and central nervous system diseases. For radiation protection, meeting the cancer PEL is currently the design driver for galactic cosmic ray and solar particle event shielding, mission duration, and crew certification (e.g., 1-year ISS missions). The risk of cancer development is the largest known long-term health consequence following radiation exposure, and current estimates for long-term health risks due to cardiovascular diseases are approximately 30% to 40% of the cancer risk for exposures above an estimated threshold (Deep Space one-year and Mars missions). Large uncertainties currently exist in estimating the health risks of space radiation exposure. Improved understanding through radiobiology and physics research allows increased accuracy in risk estimation and is essential for ensuring astronaut health as well as for controlling mission costs, optimization of mission operations, vehicle design, and countermeasure assessment. We will review the Space Radiation Program Element's research strategies to increase accuracy in risk models and to inform development and validation of the permissible exposure limits.
For decades, NASA and international partners have conducted biological experiments in space to understand effects of spaceflight and address potential hazards. To enable spaceflight back to the Moon, and then to Mars and beyond, it is imperative to further understand basic science and health risks associated with spaceflight, along with developing countermeasures. The sending of experiments and organisms into space is a costly endeavor. To maximize scientific return, sharing with the scientific community both space-flown biospecimens and data from completed experiments is essential. New fundamental, applied, and bioinformatic science insights can be gained from specimen and data sharing efforts. Data reuse enables spaceflight health risk modeling, analyzing adverse outcomes across spaceflight hazards, and deep space autonomous support for the flight medical officer. Space-flown biospecimens not required by mission Principal Investigators are regularly archived and made available for scientific request. The largest biorepository of these samples are found within NASA’s Institutional Scientific Collection at Ames Research Center (ISC-ARC), which stores over 32,000 specimens mostly from Shuttle and International Space Station (ISS) missions, but also some ground-based analog samples. The Ames Life Sciences Data Archive manages the ISC-ARC. Tissues are predominantly from mice and rats, though samples are also available from bacteria and quail. Only a handful of other similar collections exist worldwide. Rodent biospecimens exposed to simulated space radiation at Brookhaven National Laboratory are archived under the purview of NASA HRP Space Radiation Element. Microbial collection and analyses from 20 years of routine environmental monitoring of air, surfaces, and water systems of the ISS were performed to ensure a safe environment for astronauts. Samples from the ISC-ARC, space radiation and microbial collections are searchable and requestable through the NASA Life Sciences Data Archive (LSDA). Decades of planetary protection microbial isolates derived from spacecraft bioburden are archived in JPL’s microbial collection. Rodent biospecimens from spaceflight investigations conducted by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) are archived and available at the JAXA Biorepository at Tsukuba Space Center. The Russian Institute of Biomedical Problems also has a collection of animal, microbial, cellular, and fungi available for research from ground analog experiments. Several data repositories exist for scientists to utilize. The LSDA is the primary NASA source of life sciences research data and information. It contains decades of spaceflight and ground-analog research involving human, microbial, cellular, plant, and animal subjects. Data is collected from NASA-funded investigations through the Human Research Program and the Space Biology Program. The NASA Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health collects and grants access to clinical and occupational health monitoring data from astronauts, with a list and description of data collected available for request through the LSDA. NASA GeneLab at ARC collects genomic, transcriptomic, proteomic, and metabolomic data from any species. It is a repository and platform for collaborative open-science bioinformatic approaches. JAXA is establishing an ‘omics-based repository in collaboration with the Tohoku Medical Megabank (ToMMo), called the JAXA-ToMMo Integrated Biobank for Space Life Science. Overall, the sharing of these biospecimen and data resources can assist researchers worldwide in understanding spaceflight effects on biology, along with enabling next generation data science applications for space exploration platforms. Websites: https://lsda.jsc.nasa.gov/ ; https://www.nasa.gov/ames/research/space-biosciences/isc-bsp ; https://www.nasa.gov/ames/research/space-biosciences/alsda
For decades, NASA and international partners have conducted biological experiments in space to understand effects of spaceflight and address potential hazards. To enable spaceflight back to the Moon, and then to Mars and beyond, it is imperative to further understand basic science and health risks associated with spaceflight, along with developing countermeasures. The sending of experiments and organisms into space is a costly endeavor. To maximize scientific return, sharing with the scientific community both space-flown biospecimens and data from completed experiments is essential. New fundamental, applied, and bioinformatic science insights can be gained from specimen and data sharing efforts. Data reuse enables spaceflight health risk modeling, analyzing adverse outcomes across spaceflight hazards, and deep space autonomous support for the flight medical officer.
Wildfires in Chile in the last decade were the worst on record, destroying homes and livelihoods, polluting the air, and displacing whole towns. To predict locations where wildfires were likely to start, the Corporación Nacional Forestal (CONAF) created a wildfire risk model within ArcGIS Pro and Google Earth Engine (GEE) that utilized the NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) and the NASA Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (STRM) 90-meter datasets. The previous CONAF model was very resource-heavy and time-intensive to run. NASA DEVELOP, in partnership with CONAF, automated the previous model and transferred it fully into GEE where all Earth observation datasets could be used without downloading. The new model substantially reduced the runtime. The final model was used to create a near real-time wildfire monitoring application as well as fire severity maps. The end products will be used by CONAF for wildfire prediction and management to prevent more destruction in the future.
Increased biomedical risks associated with deep space crewed missions (cis-Lunar, Mars transit/surface) require development of health countermeasures, novel ecosystem support, risk modeling, and fundamental space biological knowledge discovery. Molecular-omics, physiological-phenotypic-behavioral, and environmental-radiation telemetry data from space biological and health studies are needed for reuse by scientists to address these tasks. The data as well as space-relevant biospecimens are being made more findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable through NASA’s Open Science Data Repository (OSDR). This new OSDR umbrella grouping includes NASA GeneLab, the NASA Ames Life Sciences Data Archive (ALSDA), and the NASA Biological Institutional Scientific Collection. The OSDR system design appropriately handles metadata and processed-tabular results from ALSDA studies collected from space experiments. But raw and processed ALSDA bioimage and video datasets require an expansion of OSDR’s data architecture to handle ingestion, curation, and egress. The academic-industry bioimaging field saw a scientific renaissance in the past several years through leveraging open-source software, international collaborations, machine learning, and other open science/programming approaches. As crewed missions and more biological experiments are on the deep space horizon, OSDR is embracing data stewardship through listening to feedback from subject matter experts and designing an expanded architecture which is appropriate for NASA’s goals to enable analysis and reuse of bioimaging and video data for the public science community.Discovery Through Image and Video Data Sharing
This presentation provides an introductory overview of key factors involved in the asteroid impact threat assessment and risk modeling performed for the Planetary Defense Conference hypothetical impact exercises.
Long duration spaceflight missions will require crew to become more autonomous in conducting extravehicular activities (EVA) without direct communication with Mission Control for biomedical support. To enable such autonomy, we are developing a Crew State and Risk Model (CSRM) as a collection of key physiology domains that drive EVA crew capabilities and workloads. One model component of CSRM is human thermal regulation. In this paper, customized development of a baseline model to predict core body temperature is presented using physiology inputs of heart rate and metabolic rate. The model development dataset included a baseline study where participants (n=6, equal male and female) performed a 5-hour EVA in a two-part session while wearing a hybrid space suit simulator (HS3). The first session included an end-to-end EVA traversing 1500 meters to a geology site and traversing back to a habitat conducting geology, payload relocation, and maintenance operations every 500 meters. The second session included standalone tasks of a 2000-meter traverse followed by geology tasks. Thermal measures of core body temperature, local skin temperature, liquid cooling garment temperature, heart rate, and metabolic rate were collected through the test duration. Multiple regression was used to build a linear equation to predict core body temperature from inputs of heart rate and metabolic rate. Heat storage was calculated via predicted core body temperature plus LCG and skin temperatures. The model was tested against a dataset from a pressurized suited test (n=6, equal male and female) in the NASA Active Response Gravity Offload System (ARGOS) conducting similar end-to-end EVA and standalone tasks. Predicted error of the model against the raw test cases was 0.2±0.15 °C. The baseline prediction of core body temperature using heart rates and metabolic rates allows for simple real-time tracking from data collected in-flight to monitor crew consumables and thermal flight limits during EVA.
The NASA Twins Genome Study investigates the effects of spaceflight on somatic mutation accumulation by comparing genome-wide sequence data from a spaceflight astronaut and his Earth-bound twin. Utilizing advanced computational software on high performance computers, this study identifies and maps somatic mutations, with implications for understanding spaceflight-associated health risks, including cancer, neurodegeneration, and cardiovascular disease. The findings aim to bridge rodent and human space research, offering insights into tissue-specific pathophysiology, risk models, and potential therapeutic interventions.
Because of serious concerns about global warming, manufacturers have started phasing out high global warming potential (GWP) refrigerants in commercial refrigeration equipment (e.g., R-134a). As a potential replacement, propane (R-290) is an environmentally friendly refrigerant for commercial refrigeration equipment because its GWP is only three. However, propane is flammable and is therefore classified as a Class A3 refrigerant per ASHRAE Standards, so safety is a very important consideration when propane-based equipment is designed and deployed in buildings. In the event of a refrigerant leak, flammability of the refrigerant depends on the refrigerant’s local concentration, which is highly affected by the indoor air environment, including temperature and air flow. In this study, a ventilation system attached to a commercial R-290 refrigeration device was designed to eliminate the flammability risk. Moreover, a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was developed to investigate the refrigerant leak, thereby evaluating effects of the ventilation system. The CFD model can visualize the flammable zones owing to the leak.
A statistical model for cumulative solar proton event fluences and for worst-case flux during space missions is presented. New features include the solar minimum time period and proton energy spectra that extend to higher energies.
A statistical model for cumulative solar proton event fluences during space missions is presented that covers both the solar minimum and solar maximum phases of the solar cycle. It is based on data from the IMP and GOES series of satellites that is integrated together to allow the best features of each data set to be taken advantage of. This allows fluence-energy spectra to be extended out to energies of 327 MeV.
Prior to any human space flight, calculations of radiation risks are used to determine the acceptable scope of astronaut activity. Using the supercomputing facilities at NASA Ames Research Center, Ames researchers have determined the damage probabilities of DNA functional groups by space radiation. The data supercede those used in the current Monte Carlo model for risk assessment. One example is the reaction of DNA with hydroxyl radical produced by the interaction of highly energetic particles from space radiation with water molecules in the human body. This reaction is considered an important cause of DNA mutations, although its mechanism is not well understood.
A software quality model and its associated attributes are defined and used as the model for the basis for a discussion on risk. Specific quality goals and attributes are selected based on their importance to a software development project and their ability to be quantified. Risks that can be determined by the model's metrics are identified. A core set of metrics relating to the software development process and its products is defined. Measurements for each metric and their usability and applicability are discussed.
Most Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) underrepresent dynamic feedbacks from climate-driven disturbances such as wildfires, potentially overestimating the permanence of land-based carbon sinks. In particular, representing the impacts of forest fires is becoming increasingly important, as these are expected to intensify in the coming years. We introduce IAM-FIRE (Integrated Assessment Model – Fire Impacts & Risks Emulator), a novel framework that enables the projection of wildfire burned area (BA) and carbon emissions (CE) directly from IAM outputs. IAM-FIRE combines a spatial climate emulator, land-use downscaling, vegetation productivity modelling, and an empirical fire model to generate global annual wildfire impacts for arbitrary socioeconomic and emissions scenarios at 0.5° resolution for the period 2020–2100. Calibrated against GFEDv5 observations and using inputs from the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), we report projections BA and CE derived from IAM-FIRE for four scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-6.6 and SSP5-7.6. The model reproduces historical global trends for total BA, including the observed global decline since the early 2000s, and for forest BA. Projected fire trajectories differ strongly among scenarios: total BA range from declines under SSP1-2.6 (-3.36 Mha yr-1) to increases under SSP3-6.6 (+1.6 Mha yr-1). Corresponding total CE show a similar divergence ranging from -15 to +10.6 TgC yr-1. Socioeconomic development exerts a dominant suppressing effect on wildfire impacts while climate change and CO2-driven increases in vegetation productivity amplify fire risk, particularly under high-emissions pathways. Compared with CMIP6 fire-enabled Earth System Models, IAM-FIRE exhibits greater sensitivity to radiative forcing and a stronger role for human-driven fire suppression, highlighting substantial structural uncertainties in future fire projections. By providing a computationally efficient and internally consistent approach to represent wildfire impacts within IAMs, IAM-FIRE enables systematic exploration of fire–climate–land feedbacks and supports improved assessments of mitigation permanence and climate risks in future integrated scenarios.