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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

High-energy-density-physics measurements in implosions using Bayesian inference

Convergent high-energy-density (HED) experimental platforms are used to study matter under some of the most extreme conditions that can be produced on Earth, comparable to the interior of stars. There are many challenges in using these systems for fundamental measurements currently being addressed by new analysis methods, such as the combination of a reduced physics model and Bayesian inference, allowing a self-consistent inference of physical quantities with a robust error analysis. These methods in combination with simple (as compared to inertial confinement fusion implosions) implosion platforms, which can be modified to show sensitivity to different physical mechanisms of interest, are used to study the physical properties of matter under extreme conditions. This work discusses a subset of implosion targets for studying opacity effects, electron-ion equilibration, and thermal conductivity and, as an example, a system consisting of a thick-shelled, gas-filled laser-direct-drive implosion is used to show how a reduced model and Bayesian inference can help inform experimental design decisions such as diagnostic choice. It is shown that for this system that a combination of neutron and x-ray self-emission diagnostics is critical for constraining the details of the thermodynamic states in the system and that the conductivity exponent in a Spitzer like framework can be constrained to the 30% level in deuterium at gigabar conditions. Furthermore, this process can be applied to many HED systems to make underlying model assumptions explicit and facilitate experimental design and analysis.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Review and Comparison of Different Sensitivity Analysis Techniques in Practice

There exist many methods for sensitivity analysis readily available to the practitioner. While each seeks to help the modeler answer the same general question – How do sources of uncertainty or changes in the model inputs relate to uncertainty in the output? – different methods are associated with different assumptions, constraints, and required resources, leading to conclusions that may vary in interpretability and level of detail. Thus, it is crucial that the practitioner selects the desired sensitivity analysis method judiciously, making sure to match the selected approach to the specifics of their problem and to their desired objectives. In this chapter, we provide a practical overview of a collection of widely used, widely available sensitivity analysis methods. We focus on global sensitivity approaches, which seek to characterize how uncertainty in the model output may be allocated to sources of uncertainty in model inputs across the entire input space. Generally, this will require the practitioner to specify a probability distribution over the input space. On the other hand, methods for local sensitivity analysis do not require this specification but they have more limited utility, providing insight into sources of uncertainty associated only with a particular, specified location in the input space. Our hope is that this chapter may serve as a decision-making tool for practitioners, helping to guide the selection of a sensitivity analysis approach that will best fit their needs. To support this goal, we have selected a suite of approaches to cover, which, while not exhaustive, we believe provides a flexible and robust sensitivity analysis toolkit. All methods included are widely used and available in standard software packages.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1979

Robustness properties of discrete time regulators, LOG regulators and hybrid systems

Robustness properites of sample-data LQ regulators are derived which show that these regulators have fundamentally inferior uncertainty tolerances when compared to their continuous-time counterparts. Results are also presented in stability theory, multivariable frequency domain analysis, LQG robustness, and mathematical representations of hybrid systems.

Stein, G.↗
DOE OSTI2016

TH-EF-207A-04: A Dynamic Contrast Enhanced Cone Beam CT Technique for Evaluation of Renal Functions

Purpose: To develop a simple but robust method for the early detection and evaluation of renal functions using dynamic contrast enhanced cone beam CT technique. Methods: Experiments were performed on an integrated imaging and radiation research platform developed by our lab. Animals (n=3) were anesthetized with 20uL Ketamine/Xylazine cocktail, and then received 200uL injection of iodinated contrast agent Iopamidol via tail vein. Cone beam CT was acquired following contrast injection once per minute and up to 25 minutes. The cone beam CT was reconstructed with a dimension of 300×300×800 voxels of 130×130×130um voxel resolution. The middle kidney slices in the transvers and coronal planes were selected for image analysis. A double exponential function was used to fit the contrast enhanced signal intensity versus the time after contrast injection. Both pixel-based and region of interest (ROI)-based curve fitting were performed. Four parameters obtained from the curve fitting, namely the amplitude and flow constant for both contrast wash in and wash out phases, were investigated for further analysis. Results: Robust curve fitting was demonstrated for both pixel based (with R{sup 2}>0.8 for >85% pixels within the kidney contour) and ROI based (R{sup 2}>0.9 for all regions) analysis. Three different functional regions: renal pelvis, medulla and cortex, were clearly differentiated in the functional parameter map in the pixel based analysis. ROI based analysis showed the half-life T1/2 for contrast wash in and wash out phases were 0.98±0.15 and 17.04±7.16, 0.63±0.07 and 17.88±4.51, and 1.48±0.40 and 10.79±3.88 minutes for the renal pelvis, medulla and cortex, respectively. Conclusion: A robust method based on dynamic contrast enhanced cone beam CT and double exponential curve fitting has been developed to analyze the renal functions for different functional regions. Future study will be performed to investigate the sensitivity of this technique in the detection of radiation induced kidney dysfunction.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Generalized Linear Targeting For Cislunar Flight

An important element of Artemis and NASA’s campaign to explore the Moon is the autonomous onboard two-level targeter (TLT) used during all cislunar flight phases. The function of the TLT is to autonomously recompute the burn targets for the upcoming burn (or multiple burns) in response to navigation and vehicle dispersion providing a solution that meets all of the trajectory constraints. Although the TLT has been utilized previously as a ground-based planning tool, and flown onboard during the Artemis I mission, it’s complexity and iterative nature make is difficult to incorporate into and support rapid analyses such as robust optimal trajectory design applications where speed is essential. In this paper, a set of generalized linear targeting algorithms that mimics many of the properties of the TLT is derived. The generalized algorithms can handle single or multiple impulsive maneuvers, with multiple constraints at multiple fixed or variable times. A linear targeting algorithm for finite burn maneuvers is also derived. The generalized linear targeting algorithms are exceptionally fast and easy to implement in Monte Carlo analysis, linear covariance (LinCov) analysis, and robust optimal trajectory design. Several cislunar flight examples are provided.

Linear Covariance Analysis↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Gaussian Process Enhancement to Linear Parameter Varying Models

Simulation and analysis for modern engineering systems now routinely requires the merging of multiple disciplines, physical-domains, time-scales, and data sets — all at ever increasing levels. These capabilities are especially needed in the domain of Advanced Air Mobility, where rapidly emerging vehicle designs are significantly more complex, while having to be both cost-effective and safe. To meet these engineering challenges, machine learning methods are an attractive option for merging models and data across multiple areas while providing uncertainty quantification and maintaining computational efficiency. This paper examines the use of Gaussian process machine learning to generalize and enhance the commonly used class of quasi-Linear Parameter Varying models for fast full-envelope simulation while also supporting control system design and analysis with model uncertainty. Gaussian process machine learning is selected because it: can fuse multiple data sets, enables an easy trade-off between data fitting and smoothing, provides model uncertainty quantification, scales well with increasing complexity, and does not generally require starting from a large training data set. To demonstrate the benefits of the approach, a robust stability analysis with Gaussian process uncertainty is shown for a NASA reference design of an electric quad-rotor air-taxi concept vehicle with motor parameter uncertainty.

Gaussian Process↗
NASA NTRS2019

Modeling, Simulation, and Robust Design of the TSIS Pointing Controller for ISS Deployment

To ensure high quality TSIS science measurements, stringent requirements were levied on the pointing system performance. Several factors complicated the design of the pointing system controller including uncertainty in knowledge of the ISS base motion jitter, the use of direct drive brushless DC motors for the gimbal system, and the presence of TSIS structure low frequency modes. This paper will describe the modeling, simulation, analysis, and robust design techniques employed to reduce risk resulting in a pointing system that met requirements on-orbit.

Engelmann, Andrew↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian analysis of (3 +1)⁢D relativistic nuclear dynamics with the RHIC beam energy scan data

This work presents a Bayesian inference study for relativistic heavy-ion collisions in the beam energy scan program at the BNL Relativistic Heavy-Ion Collider. The theoretical model simulates event-by-event (3+1)-dimensional [(3+1)⁢D] collision dynamics using hydrodynamics and hadronic transport theory. We analyze the model's 20-dimensional posterior distributions obtained using three model emulators with different accuracy and demonstrate the essential role of training an accurate model emulator in the Bayesian analysis. Our analysis provides robust constraints on the quark-gluon plasma's transport properties and various aspects of (3+1)⁢D relativistic nuclear dynamics. By running full model simulations with 100 parameter sets sampled from the posterior distribution, we make predictions for p T -differential observables and estimate their systematic theory uncertainty. Here, a sensitivity analysis is performed to elucidate how individual experimental observables respond to different model parameters, providing useful physics insights into the phenomenological model for heavy-ion collisions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Framework Using Applied Process Analysis Methods to Assess Water Security in the Vu Gia–Thu Bon River Basin, Vietnam

The Vu Gia–Thu Bon (VG–TB) river basin is facing numerous challenges to water security, particularly in light of the increasing impacts of climate change. These challenges, including salinity intrusion, shifts in rainfall patterns, and reduced water supply in downstream areas, are of great concern. This study comprehensively assessed the current state of water security in the basin using robust statistical analysis methods such as the Process Analysis Method (PAM), SMART principle, and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). This resulted in the development of a comprehensive assessment framework for water security in the VG–TB river basin. This framework identified five key dimensions, with basin development activities (0.32), the ability to meet water needs (0.24), and natural disaster resilience (0.19) being the most crucial and water resource potential being the least crucial (0.11) according to the AHP methodology. The latter also highlighted 15 indicators, four of which are particularly influential, including waste resources (0.54), flood (0.53), water storage capacity (0.45), and basin governance (0.42). Furthermore, 28 variables with high weight factors were identified. This framework aligns with the UN-Water water security definition and addresses the global water sustainability criteria outlined in Sustainable Development Goal 6 (SDG6). It enables the computation of a comprehensive Water Security Index (WSI) for specific regions, providing a strong foundation for decision-making and policy formulation. It aims to enhance water security in the context of climate change and support sustainable basin development, thereby guiding future research and policy decisions in water resource management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2025

Generalized Reference Targeting for Spaceflight

For spaceflight programs to achieve some of the aggressive exploration initiatives such as visiting and landing on other celestial bodies, rendezvousing with other orbiting vehicles, and ultimately returning crew safely to Earth, an assortment of targeting algorithms to compute the necessary burns to strategically maneuver a spacecraft to a variety of destinations are required. Numerous examples exist, but rather than creating and implementing multiple targeting solutions, is it possible to have a general targeting model that can accommodate a variety of applications? Originally motivated for mission design and analysis purposes, this paper outlines a generalized reference targeting algorithm for spaceflight that may also have applications in on-orbit flight software. It accommodates arbitrary flight dynamics and both impulsive and finite burns for either absolute or relative targeting applications. It also allows for an arbitrary number of targeting design parameters such as multiple discrete correction burns or finite thrust parameters to satisfy numerous combinations of targeting constraints that can have fixed or variable time epochs. Given a reference trajectory, this targeting technique provides a general framework to quickly solve an assortment of targeting problems that may be well-defined, over-determined, or under-determined while naturally producing metrics providing insight into the controllability for a given problem formulation. Due to the derivation, speed, and accuracy of the algorithm, it lends to supporting rapid linear covariance analysis and robust trajectory design applications for a variety of flight phases such as rendezvous and docking, cislunar transfer, interplanetary flight, orbit maintenance, de-orbit, and powered descent and landing.

Targeting↗
DOE OSTI2018

Energy Storage Data Submission Guidelines

In order to consider and understand emerging energy storage technologies, data analysis can be executed to ascertain proper operation and performance. The technical benefits of rigorous testing and data analysis are important for the customer, the planner, developer, and system operator: the end-user has a safe, reliable system that performs predictably on a macro level. The test-and-analyze approach to verifying performance of energy storage devices, equipment, and systems integration into the grid improves the understanding of the value of energy storage over time from the economic vantage point. Demonstrating the lifecycle value of energy storage begins with the data the provider supplies for analysis. After review of energy storage data received from several providers, it has become clear that some ESS data is inconsistent and incomplete - thus leading to a question of the inefficacy of the data when it comes time to analyze it. This paper will review and propose general guidelines such as sampling rates and data points that providers must supply in order for robust data analysis to take place. Consistent guidelines are the basis of the proper protocol to (a) reduce time it takes data to reach those who are providing analyses; (b) allow them to better understand the energy storage installations; and (c) provide high quality analysis of the installation. This paper intends to serve as a starting point for what data points should be provided when monitoring. As battery technologies continue to advance and the industry expands, this paper will be updated to remain current.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2018

Towards the Robust Small-Signal Stability Region of Power Systems Under Perturbations Such as Uncertain and Volatile Wind Generation

This paper addresses how to extend the concept of small-signal stability region (SSSR) to that of robust small-signal stability region (RSSSR), within which the system can remain stable even under perturbations caused by uncertain and volatile nodal injections, such as renewable generation. We first employ the structured perturbation theory to formulate the perturbations of nodal injections in state space. Both the intensity and the locations of perturbations can be taken into account. Then, we leverage the stability radius theory and structured singular value theory to define the RSSSR in parameter subspace, enabling a systematic analysis of small-signal stability of power systems under perturbations in a region-wise manner. The hyperplane-approximation method can be employed to construct a linear closed-form approximation of RSSSR boundaries. Case studies on the modified two-area system and New England 39-node system illustrate the new concept of RSSSR and its potential applications.

power system stability analysis↗
DOE OSTI2025

PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative Final Technical Report (FTR)

Improved analysis and reporting of photovoltaic (PV) field performance increases the certainty of owners and financiers that systems will perform as expected. Advanced module technologies (e.g., PERC, HJT, and bifacial) introduce new degradation mechanisms and performance characteristics. This project will leverage data from the ever-increasing PV fleet to develop models and understanding of the field performance of existing and new technologies. Please see our list of public reports at https://www.nrel.gov/pv/fleet-performance-data-initiative.html. Objective 1: Support the global PV industry with scalable, robust data analysis tools that reduce the uncertainty of PV system performance and loss calculation. Objective 2: Reduce perceived risk arising from degradation rate, soiling loss, and system availability by publishing detailed statistics on U.S. fleet performance. Objective 3: Highlight factors leading to system underperformance including module type, climate, mounting configuration, etc. Objective 4: Enable continued high system performance in modern PV systems, as turnover and advances in technology bring new suppliers and high-efficiency modules into the market.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

GeoVision Analysis: Exploration Task Force Report

The GeoVision study effort included ground-breaking, detailed research on current and future market conditions and geothermal technologies in order to forecast and quantify the electric and non-electric deployment potentials under a range of scenarios, in addition to their impacts on the Nation’s jobs, economy and environment. Coordinated by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO), the GeoVision study development relied on the collection, modeling, and analysis of robust datasets through seven national laboratory partners, which were organized into eight technical Task Force groups. The purpose of this report is to provide a central repository for the research conducted by the Exploration Task Force. The Exploration Task Force consists of four individuals representing three national laboratories: Patrick Dobson (task lead) and Christine Doughty of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Anna Wall of National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Travis McLing of Idaho National Laboratory, and Chester Weiss of Sandia National Laboratories. As part of the GeoVision analysis, our team conducted extensive scientific and financial analyses on a number of topics related to current and future geothermal exploration methods. The GeoVision Exploration Task Force complements the drilling and resource technology investigations conducted as part of the Reservoir Maintenance and Development Task Force. The Exploration Task Force however has focused primarily on early stage R&D technologies in exploration and confirmation drilling, along with an evaluation of geothermal financing challenges and assumptions, and innovative “blue-sky” technologies. This research was used to develop geothermal resource supply curves (through the use of GETEM) for use in the ReEDS capacity expansion modeling that determines geothermal technology deployment potential. It also catalogues and explores the large array of early-stage R&D technologies with the potential to dramatically reduce exploration and geothermal development costs, forming the basis of the GeoVision Technology Improvement (TI) scenario. These modeling topics are covered in detail in Potential to Penetration task force report. Most of the research contained herein has been published in peer-reviewed papers or conference proceedings and are cited and referenced accordingly. The sections that follow provide a central repository for all of the research findings of the Exploration and Confirmation Task Force. In summary, it provides a comprehensive discussion of Engineered Geothermal Systems (EGS) and associated technology challenges, the risks and costs of conducting geothermal exploration, a review of existing government efforts to date in advancing early-stage R&D in both exploration and EGS technologies, as well as a discussion of promising and innovative technologies and implementation of blue-sky concepts that could significantly reduce costs, lower risks, and shorten the time needed to explore and develop geothermal resources of all types.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NEUROSPF: A Tool For the Symbolic Analysis of Neural Networks

This paper presents NEUROSPF, a tool for the symbolic analysis of neural networks. Given a trained neural network model, the tool extracts the architecture and model parameters and translates them into a Java representation that is amenable for analysis using the Symbolic PathFinder symbolic execution tool. Notably, NEUROSPF encodes specialized peer classes for parsing the model’s parameters, thereby enabling efficient analysis. With NEUROSPF the user has the flexibility to specify either the inputs or the network internal parameters as symbolic, promoting the application of program analysis and testing approaches from software engineering to the field of machine learning. For instance, NEUROSPF can be used for coverage-based testing and test generation, finding adversarial examples and also constraint-based repair of neural networks, thus improving the reliability of neural networks and of the applications that use them.

neural networks↗
DOE OSTI2017

Uncertainty propagation of p-boxes using sparse polynomial chaos expansions

In modern engineering, physical processes are modelled and analysed using advanced computer simulations, such as finite element models. Furthermore, concepts of reliability analysis and robust design are becoming popular, hence, making efficient quantification and propagation of uncertainties an important aspect. In this context, a typical workflow includes the characterization of the uncertainty in the input variables. In this paper, input variables are modelled by probability-boxes (p-boxes), accounting for both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. The propagation of p-boxes leads to p-boxes of the output of the computational model. A two-level meta-modelling approach is proposed using non-intrusive sparse polynomial chaos expansions to surrogate the exact computational model and, hence, to facilitate the uncertainty quantification analysis. The capabilities of the proposed approach are illustrated through applications using a benchmark analytical function and two realistic engineering problem settings. They show that the proposed two-level approach allows for an accurate estimation of the statistics of the response quantity of interest using a small number of evaluations of the exact computational model. This is crucial in cases where the computational costs are dominated by the runs of high-fidelity computational models.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS1992

Flight-determined stability analysis of multiple-input-multiple-output control systems

Singular value analysis can give conservative stability margin results. Applying structure to the uncertainty can reduce this conservatism. This paper presents flight-determined stability margins for the X-29A lateral-directional, multiloop control system. These margins are compared with the predicted unscaled singular values and scaled structured singular values. The algorithm was further evaluated with flight data by changing the roll-rate-to-aileron-command-feedback gain by +/- 20 percent. Also presented are the minimum eigenvalues of the return difference matrix which bound the singular values. Extracting multiloop singular values from flight data and analyzing the feedback gain variations validates this technique as a measure of robustness. This analysis can be used for near-real-time flight monitoring and safety testing.

Burken, John J.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Flight-determined stability analysis of multiple-input-multiple-output control systems

Singular value analysis can give conservative stability margin results. Applying structure to the uncertainty can reduce this conservatism. This paper presents flight-determined stability margins for the X-29A lateral-directional, multiloop control system. These margins are compared with the predicted unscaled singular values and scaled structured singular values. The algorithm was further evaluated with flight data by changing the roll-rate-to-aileron command-feedback gain by +/- 20 percent. Minimum eigenvalues of the return difference matrix which bound the singular values are also presented. Extracting multiloop singular values from flight data and analyzing the feedback gain variations validates this technique as a measure of robustness. This analysis can be used for near-real-time flight monitoring and safety testing.

Burken, John J.↗