Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Space Safety”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Thermal analyses of high-power advanced thermoacoustic radioisotope power system for future space exploration missions

This paper presents the results of 3-D thermal analyses of the heat source assembly of a 440 We advanced radioisotope power system (RPS) for future space exploration missions. This high thermal efficiency RPS employs a heat source assembly of eight Step 2 General Purpose Heat Source (GPHS) modules and four Thermoacoustic Power Converter (TAPC) units. Each unit is thermally coupled to two GPHS modules. Here, the analyses investigated the temperatures of the Iridium (Ir) alloy cladding of the 238 PuO 2 fuel pellets and the surface of the Fine Weave Pierced Fabric (FWPF) aeroshell in the GPHS modules to ensure reliable operation and safety in case of an unlikely reentry. Conductive coupling of the GPHS modules to the heater heads of the TAPC units produces relatively uniform axial and azimuthal distributions of heat flux and temperature. However, for this case the temperature of the Ir alloy cladding is lower than the desired values of 1173 K to maintain sufficient ductility. Adding a 5 mm wide He filled gap and decreasing the thickness of the graphite sleeve to 10 mm increased Ir cladding temperature to 1197–1174 K, which are in the desired range. The maximum surface temperatures of the FWPF graphite aeroshell of 1022–1131 K is well below the NASA specified limit of 1373 K. In addition, the total mass of the heat source assembly decreased by 19.6 kg, ~43% saving compared to original design.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Expansion of Machine-Learning Method for Classifying Neutron Resonances

The understanding of astrophysics processes and the performance of nuclear reactors and other nuclear systems depend on a precise description of the neutron interaction cross sections for materials and nuclei present in these environments. At low neutron energies, these cross sections exhibit resonance structure represented by sharp enhancements when the neutron energy is sufficiently close to excited levels in a compound nucleus. Such resonances can be characterized by their quantum numbers relative to angular momenta, which are often deduced in an ad hoc and irreproducible manner from the shape of the cross sections. The correct assignment of the quantum numbers of neutron resonances is therefore of paramount importance. To address this we have developed a machine-learning method to automate the identification and correction of these spin assignments. The algorithm is trained from simulated data, generated from statistical properties of resonance data for a given nucleus, to mimic the errors found in real data. In this project we describe five independent approaches to further develop and expand the applicability of the machine-learning spin classifier: i) Feature impact; ii) Integration with the Atlas; iii) Training optimization; iv) Spacings systematics; and v) Validation with polarized data. The premises, methods, results, and future perspectives are discussed.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Municipal Adaptation to Changing Curbside Demands: Findings from Semi-Structured Interviews with Ten U.S. Cities

Emerging mobility services (e.g. ride-hailing, e-commerce, micro-mobility, etc.), are generating novel and rapidly growing demands to use curbside space, with potentially large impacts on mobility, energy consumption, and related outcomes. This presents both opportunities and challenges to municipal agencies responsible for managing this interface between the road network and adjacent land uses, as legacy practices require updating. In this study, we employ a semi-structured interviewing approach to establish how municipalities are adapting to these new pressures on their curbside. We interviewed senior staff responsible for curbside policy of ten large U.S. municipalities, with populations ranging from ~250,000 to ~5,000,000 (and the majority of which are the central city of their metropolitan region). We document a trend of organizational restructuring to more formally include curbside management teams, with the majority of interviewees also reporting increased staffing. Respondents reported that operational failures at their curbside (e.g. demand in excess of capacity) have impacts on safety, capacity, and emergency vehicle mobility, with impacts highly concentrated spatially and temporally (e.g. late evenings in nightlife districts). We document a diversity of data flows between ride-hailing operators (e.g. Uber, Lyft) and municipalities, with some cities reporting obtaining types of data that other cities report not receiving, despite requesting such data. Finally, respondents consistently expressed a desire for new data streams and methodologies to help manage the curbside of the future. It is hoped that establishing the state of practice in this rapidly changing context will be of use to practitioners facing similar pressures as those of our interviewees.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

A software package for plasma facing component analysis and design: the Heat flux Engineering Analysis Toolkit (HEAT)

The engineering limits of plasma facing components (PFCs) constrain the allowable operational space of tokamaks. Poorly managed heat fluxes that push the PFCs beyond their limits not only degrade core plasma performance via elevated impurities, but can also result in PFC failure due to thermal stresses or melting. Simple axisymmetric assumptions fail to capture the complex interaction between 3D PFC geometry and 2D or 3D plasmas. This results in fusion systems that must either operate with increased risk or reduce PFC loads, potentially through lower core plasma performance, to maintain a nominal safety factor. High precision 3D heat flux predictions are necessary to accurately ascertain the state of a PFC given the evolution of the magnetic equilibrium. A new code, the Heat flux Engineering Analysis Toolkit (HEAT), has been developed to provide high precision 3D predictions and analysis for PFCs. HEAT couples many otherwise disparate computational tools together into a single open source python package. Magnetic equilibrium, engineering CAD, finite volume solvers, scrape off layer plasma physics, visualization, high performace computing, and more, are connected in a single web-based user interface. Linux users may use HEAT without any software prerequisites via an appImage. This manuscript introduces HEAT, discusses the software architecture, presents first HEAT results, and outlines physics modules in development.

divertor physics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Regulating Li Nucleation and Growth Heterogeneities via Near-Surface Lithium-Ion Irrigation for Stable Anode-Less Lithium Metal Batteries

The inhomogeneous nucleation and growth of Li dendrite combined with the spontaneous side reactions with the electrolytes dramatically challenge the stability and safety of Li metal anode (LMA). Despite tremendous endeavors, current success relies on the use of significant excess of Li to compensate the loss of active Li during cycling. Herein, a near-surface Li + irrigation strategy is developed to regulate the inhomogeneous Li deposition behavior and suppress the consequent side reactions under limited Li excess condition. The conformal polypyrrole (PPy) coating layer on Cu surface via oxidative chemical vapor deposition technique can induce the migration of Li + to the interregional space between PPy and Cu, creating a near-surface Li + -rich region to smooth diffusion of ion flux and uniform the deposition. Moreover, as evidenced by multiscale characterizations including synchrotron high-energy X-ray diffraction scanning, a robust N-rich solid-electrolyte interface (SEI) is formed on the PPy skeleton to effectively suppress the undesired SEI formation/dissolution process. Strikingly, stable Li metal cycling performance under a high areal capacity of 10 mAh cm -2 at 2.0 mA cm -2 with merely 0.5 × Li excess is achieved. The findings not only resolve the long-standing poor LMA stability/safety issues, but also deepen the mechanism understanding of Li deposition process.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Status of the KRUSTY Benchmark Modeling and Uncertainty Analysis

The U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) desire for a small nuclear reactor for space applications led to a prototype assembly, Kilopower Reactor Using Stirling Technology (KRUSTY). The KRUSTY experiments included four phases: component critical, cold critical, warm critical, and high temperature. The KRUSTY benchmark described in this paper includes five configurations from the component critical experiments that were performed at the National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC) beginning in November 2017. Preliminary results have been reported. The benchmark is now nearing completion (although it is still preliminary until formally accepted by the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project [ICSBEP] working group). In this paper, we present the updated benchmark and its uncertainties. These results were computed using MCNP6.2 ® with ENDF/B-VIII.0 cross sections.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Laboratory Study of the Torus Instability Threshold in Solar-relevant, Line-tied Magnetic Flux Ropes

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) occur when long-lived magnetic flux ropes (MFRs) anchored to the solar surface destabilize and erupt away from the Sun. This destabilization is often described in terms of an ideal magnetohydrodynamic instability called the torus instability. It occurs when the external magnetic field decreases sufficiently fast such that its decay index, ${n}_{}=-z\,\partial (\mathrm{ln}{B}_{})/\partial z$, is larger than a critical value, $n\gt {n}_{\mathrm{cr}}^{}$, where ${n}_{\mathrm{cr}}^{}=1.5$ for a full, large aspect ratio torus. However, when this is applied to solar MFRs, a range of conflicting values for ${n}_{\mathrm{cr}}^{}$ is found in the literature. To investigate this discrepancy, we have conducted laboratory experiments on arched, line-tied flux ropes and applied a theoretical model of the torus instability. Our model describes an MFR as a partial torus with foot points anchored in a conducting surface and numerically calculates various magnetic forces on it. This calculation yields better predictions of ${n}_{\mathrm{cr}}^{}$ that take into account the specific parameters of the MFR. Here, we describe a systematic methodology to properly translate laboratory results to their solar counterparts, provided that the MFRs have a sufficiently small edge safety factor or, equivalently, a large enough twist. After this translation, our model predicts that ${n}_{\mathrm{cr}}^{}$ in solar conditions falls near ${n}_{\mathrm{cr}}^{\mathrm{solar}}\sim 0.9$ and within a larger range of ${n}_{\mathrm{cr}}^{\mathrm{solar}}\sim (0.7,1.2)$, depending on the parameters. The methodology of translating laboratory MFRs to their solar counterparts enables quantitative investigations of CME initiation through laboratory experiments. These experiments allow for new physics insights that are required for better predictions of space weather events but are difficult to obtain otherwise.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Electrostatic dust remediation for future exploration of the Moon

Dust accumulation is one of the critical issues that must be mitigated on in-situ lunar explorations because an in-situ probe is exposed to small dust particles, which are easily attached to it, during its operations. The Lunar Dust Science Definition Team is organized by the Jet Propulsion Lab/California Institute of Technology through NASA’s Biological and Physical Sciences Division to define key science questions and assess dust remediation techniques. Here, we assess three electrostatic remediation technology concepts: electrostatic dust shield; surface electrostatically collecting dust, later called attractive surface; and electron beam — plasma jet inducing electrostatic dust lofting from a surface. We qualitatively investigate their maturity by defining six operational factors: Time and location; Amount of dust removal; Contamination of target surfaces; Operation duration; Installation; and Safety. In addition to these techniques, we discuss a supporting system that loads dust particles onto a test article to examine dust removal efficiency. Here, the results show that further development increases the maturity of all the technologies. While laboratory and theoretical demonstrations reported whether each technology robustly work on the Moon, which hosts a complex, heterogeneous dust environment, we find that it is still uncertain if this is the case because none has been tested in the lunar environment. Particularly, operation duration and safety are critical to be addressed further on both laboratory and spaceflight scales.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Anion and cation co-doping of Na 4 SnS 4 as sodium superionic conductors

Na based all-solid-state batteries are one of the most promising candidates for large-scale electrochemical energy storage owing to their low cost and outstanding safety properties. The key enabler of this technology is solid electrolyte with sufficiently high ionic conductivity at room temperature. In this work, the design, synthesis, characterization and testing of a series of novel fast Na-ion conductors, Na 4-x-y Sn 1-x A x S 4-y X y with aliovalent cation (P 5+ /Sb 5+ ) and anion substitutions (Cl - /Br - ) of the parent compound Na 4 SnS 4 are reported. The doped samples crystalize in a new phase with space group I4 1 /acd and show ionic conductivities that are one to four orders of magnitude higher than that of undoped Na 4 SnS 4 . R. t. conductivity of 0.64 mS cm -1 is achieved in Na 3.7 Sn 0.8 Sb 0.2 S 3.9 Cl 0.1 with a low activation energy of 0.26 eV. Furthermore, Rietveld refinement against high resolution synchrotron X-ray powder diffraction data reveals that the distribution of the doping ions and the resulted Na vacancies are underlying cause of the enhanced conductivity.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Composite Solid Ion Conductor with Engineered Lithium Interface

Successful widespread commercialization of electric vehicles is contingent upon development of safe high energy density batteries capable of long cycle life. Lithium metal affords the highest theoretical capacity (3,860 mAh/g) and lowest electrochemical potential (-3.04V vs SHE), which offers the highest specific energy density of anode materials today. While Li-ion batteries are capable of delivering energy densities of 400-600 Wh/kg, the development of lithium metal batteries such as Li-S and Li-air may boost this number up to 650 and 950 Wh/kg, respectively. However, significant progress towards the passivation of lithium metal must occur before the energy density benefit can be realized. Issues with lithium dendrite formation, anode volume expansion, and continuous solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) build-up often result in significant safety concerns, high cell resistance, and poor cycle life. The intrinsic high reactivity between lithium metal with conventional lithium ion electrolytes (organic carbonate-based solvents) makes it extremely difficult to overcome these problems. In this project, Wildcat performed focused, fundamental research and development on composite polymer/ceramic electrolytes and protected lithium metal anodes to develop an all solid state lithium metal battery targeting the DOE requirements to enable commercialization. Wildcat successfully leveraged its high throughput battery platform and explored a broad composite electrolyte compositional space. Additionally, Wildcat screened large numbers of inorganic and organic coatings for lithium metal protection using in situ liquid methods and translated the best results to all solid cells. The proposed composite polymer/ceramic electrolyte and a protected lithium metal anode enabled a solid-state lithium metal battery. The ultimate targets from this effort will deliver a safe all solid-state lithium metal pouch cell with over 350 Wh/kg and over 1,000 cycles (C/3) with the cost estimate below $100/kWh. During the course of the project, we demonstrated stable cycling of 10’s of cycles with the composite SSE and our protected lithium. The work has continued after the conclusion of the DOE funding, demonstrating further improvements in catholyte composition and thinner composite solid electrolytes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimization Algorithm for Criticality Experiment Design Using Whisper

Many criticality experiments performed to aid in nuclear data evaluation are designed to maximize the sensitivity of the system’s effective neutron multiplication factor to a certain nuclide reaction pair over an energy region of interest. This is typically done by evaluating possible designs in a transport code such as MCNP and selecting the one with the highest desired sensitivity. A designer has many tools to try to maximize this sensitivity such as different moderators, reflectors, fuels, and geometries. This balancing act of identifying a critical and maximally sensitive system become very computationally expensive as more variables are added and higher precisions are desired. In order to identify these optimal configurations more efficiently a Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm coupled with MCNP has been developed by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). This algorithm has been used to design two upcoming criticality experiments that will be performed at the National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC), located at the Nevada National Security Site, and operated by LANL, the only general-purpose critical experiments laboratory in the United States. PSO uses a population (swarm) of candidate solutions (particles) on a search space of dimensions such as moderator and reflector thicknesses or enrichments and concentrations. These particles move around the search space from generation to generation according to simple rules. Eventually, the swarm converges on the configuration that is both critical and maximally sensitive to a piece of nuclear data. PSO is well suited for criticality experiments as the algorithm is agnostic to the underlying physics, meaning it is effective on many different experimental setups. This algorithm has been modified to maximize the nuclear data similarity coefficient between an application case and an experiment aimed at replicating the application case using WHISPER, a nuclear criticality safety analysis tool. This allows for the efficient design of critical experiments informed by nuclear data sensitives.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Investigation of neutron noise in a micro-scale, natural circulation molten salt fission battery system

The Molten Salt Reactor (MSR) concept is a rapidly evolving Generation IV design that has recently attracted favorable attention due to the potential for reducing waste generation, realizing passive safety features, and seizing on the opportunity for cost effective economics. A specific novel micro-MSR, natural circulation, battery design concept involves placing all primary components within a single reactor vessel containment without the need of primary forced pumping. This small modular, integral design presents potential cost savings while producing safety, reliable, and transportable carbon-free power for decades. This investigation evaluates the neutron noise induced by density and flow fluctuations in a natural circulation MSR battery concept being developed at the University of Idaho. This study finds numerical solutions to the one-dimensional, one-group, coupled diffusion equations for a bare, homogeneous core, and evaluates neutron flux and delayed neutron precursor concentration noise due to core flow and fuel salt density perturbation sources. Noise analysis shows both point kinetic and space-dependent behavior is present despite the small size, low-flow, closely-coupled nature of the natural circulation MSR concept. Analysis shows that the low flow of the convective system results in noise behavior typically representative of a larger forced-circulation MSR system. Finally, noise techniques may also be useful in MSR core diagnostics as a non-invasive, low-cost radiological option to traditional monitoring schemes.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Knowledge Management: FY22 Los Alamos National Laboratory Hydrothermal Lab for Spent Fuel Campaign R&D

The use of Engineered Barrier Systems (EBS) for spent nuclear fuel disposal is being investigated by the U.S. Department of Energy as a part of the Spent Fuel and Waste Disposition (SFWD) Campaign. Such dry spent fuel canisters would be loaded with fuel bundles, and then transported and stored at a nuclear waste repository. Once the canisters are in place underground, the space between the canister and the wall rock will be filled with bentonite clay. Recent research has prioritized high temperature interactions of EBS materials, including phase transitions in bentonite clay, in order to reduce worker dose and repository cost. Higher temperature (i.e., 200ºC) thermal limits are a new area of investigation by the U.S. and international repository science programs. The hydrothermal experimental laboratory at Los Alamos, consisting of rocking autoclaves and cold seal assemblies, is critical to the campaign and presents a significant temperature / pressure safety hazard. Therefore, working competently and safely with these systems is very important to the knowledge management procedures developed at this laboratory. Therefore, the operation of these two systems (rocking autoclaves and cold seal assemblies) will be discussed first.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2026

Degradation science: Integrating modeling and experiments to predict localized corrosion processes (Annual Progress Report)

Additively manufactured (AM) eutectic high-entropy alloys (EHEAs), such as nano-lamellar AlCoCrFeNi 2.1 , have excellent strength, ductility, and wear resistance even at elevated temperatures, but their corrosion behavior in aggressive acids at different length scales remain poorly understood. This work investigates the corrosion behavior of laser powder bed–fused (L-PBF) AlCoCrFeNi 2.1 as a function of annealing temperatures, probing degradation mechanisms from nanoscopic to macroscopic length scales. The alloy is dual phase consisting of a ductile FCC L1 2 phase and a high-strength BCC B2 phase. Rapid solidification during L-PBF produces a far-from-equilibrium nano-lamellar structure with nearly homogeneous elemental distribution, which tends to evolve upon annealing toward Cr/Co/Fe-enriched FCC and Al/Ni-enriched B2. Three conditions were studied: as-printed, 600 °C/5 h, and 1000 °C/1 h, over which B2 lamellae coarsen, lamellar spacing increases, and elemental segregation becomes more prominent. Microstructure and chemistry were characterized by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and energy-dispersive spectroscopy (EDS), while in-situ electrochemical atomic force microscopy (EC-AFM) was used to link early (<5 h) local dissolution to microstructure after exposure in sulfuric acid. EC-AFM highlights preferential dissolution of the BCC/B2 phase where the surrounding matrix is Cr-depleted and directly quantifies the dissolution rates within individual phases, tracks the transition from early nano-scale attack to partial repassivation, to correlate height differences with current and impedance responses. To monitor longer-term behavior (up to 96 h), ex-situ AFM, SEM, and confocal imaging were combined with conventional bulk electrochemical tests, bridging nanoscale observations to micro/meso-scale damage morphologies. At the meso-scale, the deepest dissolution channels align with the build-direction lamellae and melt-pool boundaries, indicating that printing directionality guides the propagation of these localized corrosion sites. Annealing modifies corrosion by restructuring BCC/FCC phase fractions, lamellar spacing, and Cr/Al segregation, thereby changing the cathode/anode ratio and passive film stability. The results clarify how as-printed and annealed nano-lamellar architectures differ in their susceptibility to selective dissolution; how elemental segregation competes with residual stresses along the build direction. With these insights, future work will use CALPHAD-guided alloy modification to stabilize higher Cr contents in the B2 phase while retaining a dominant FCC+B2/BCC microstructure, with the goal of designing mechanically robust, corrosion-resistant EHEAs for safety-critical applications to leverage the LLNL’s broader national and global security mission.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

A robust framework for frictional fault contact in geological formations using a stabilized augmented Lagrangian approach

Numerical simulations are essential to evaluate the performance and safety of engineered subsurface systems such as geological carbon storage sites, enhanced geothermal fields, and oil and gas reservoirs. A key challenge lies in accurately modeling the frictional contact behavior along fault surfaces. This problem involves inequality constraints that arise from the physics of frictional slip, requiring specialized numerical methods to handle the resulting highly nonlinear and path-dependent behavior. Here, in this work, we address this challenge using an Augmented Lagrangian Method (ALM) implemented via the Uzawa algorithm. The formulation employs mixed finite element spaces, combining low-order piecewise linear displacements within the 3D domain cells with piecewise constant tractions defined on the fault surfaces. Furthermore, to ensure stability and satisfy the inf-sup condition, the discrete displacement space is enriched with face bubble functions on both sides of the contact interfaces. This approach offers several advantages over other stabilization techniques that rely on additional terms, and it integrates naturally in the Uzawa framework.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

SAS4A/SASSYS-1 Lead Verification Test Suite

SAS4A/SASSYS-1 is a simulation tool used to perform deterministic analyses of anticipated events as well as design basis and beyond design basis accidents for advanced liquid-metal-cooled nuclear reactors. With its origin as SAS1A in the late 1960s, the SAS series of codes has been under continuous use and development for over forty-five years and represents a critical investment in safety analysis capabilities for the U.S. Department of Energy. Although SAS4A/SASSYS-1 was developed to support the analysis of any liquid-metal-cooled nuclear reactor, it has primarily been utilized to design and analyze Sodium Fast Reactors (SFRs). As a result, most of the verification basis for SAS4A/SASSYS-1 utilizes sodium as a coolant and geometry descriptions that are typical of a SFR facility. In this work, new verification problems are defined to extend the applicability of the SAS4A/SASSYS-1 verification basis into Lead Fast Reactor (LFR) design space. A review of the existing SAS4A/SASSYS-1 SFR verification test suite is performed to determine the number of test cases that are SFR specific. SFR specific test cases are replicated using lead as a coolant and system layouts that are representative of LFRs. This report provides definitions and reference solutions for seven new test cases that scope lead-specific features and capabilities of the software. For a verification test to be considered acceptable, comparisons of analytical solutions to SAS4A/SASSYS-1 predictions must produce negligible or justifiable errors. All LFR specific test cases are found to be acceptable.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Variable-spectrum mode control of high poloidal beta discharges

DIII-D experiments demonstrate that high pressure, broad current profile equilibria can be accessed in the high poloidal beta regime by optimizing the MHD mode control poloidal spectrum. A novel, variable spectrum (VS) magnetic feedback scheme implemented using the DIII-D internal non-axisymmetric coils (I-coils) facilitated access to reduced internal inductance $l$ i operation above the no-wall beta limit compared with both no feedback and fixed spectrum feedback. In addition, the VS feedback helped avoid beta collapses caused by marginally unstable resistive wall mode activity. The lower and upper I-coil rows were configured in two independent feedback loops, allowing the feedback field's poloidal spectrum to vary and track changes in the plasma mode structure as the edge safety factor q 95 varied from 11 to 6 during the discharges. The q 95 dependence of the measured phase difference between the lower and upper I-coil rows during VS feedback is qualitatively compatible with ideal MHD simulations of the least-stable plasma kink mode and with plasma response simulations that included kinetic modifications to ideal MHD. The VS feedback approach is a straightforward way to improve resilience to variations in mode structure that occur as plasma parameters change. The demonstrated expansion of the operating space to lower $l$ i is expected to improve the coupling of the plasma kink mode to external fields and beneficial wall eddy currents, and is compatible with high bootstrap fraction operation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Roadmap for a Lightning Modeling Grand Challenge

This document is a roadmap for building an interconnected model of the physical processes that produce a lightning discharge, and its observable optical and radio signals. We call this a Lightning Modeling Grand Challenge, recognizing that significant effort and coordination of human and financial resources is required to realize the capability. The roadmap serves to outline the coordination of resources necessary to enable stitching together existing knowledge and model components to make a lightning prediction, and to test these predictions with observations. Such a capability does not currently exist. The roadmap is motivated not only by a spirit of scientific inquiry, but by practical challenges faced by US Federal and societal stakeholders. Advancements in lightning observations have outpaced our tests of integrated understanding, leaving many stakeholders unsure how to design their missions to properly detect and discriminate lightning, and unsure how to apply the sometimes-disagreeing lightning signals from diverse instruments. The time is right to connect existing theories and models to support stakeholders in understanding the signals they observe, for needs as diverse as climate monitoring, national security, weather forecasting, public safety, and protection of natural and built environments. The roadmap’s two main technical sections describe the components of a linked physical model, followed by a description of models of lightning signals and sensors that are driven by outputs from the physical model. The goal is to predict the time-varying physical properties of lightning that are self-consistent with the thunderstorm’s structure and dynamics. These lightning signals then propagate through the storm, with realistic dispersion and attenuation, to receivers on the ground or in space. At a high level, the model begins with weather (cloud) model output, including explicit prediction of the electrification of cloud particles. The cloud’s electrical structure drives a model of lightning physics, from initiation, through channel development, and discharges along those channels. Key lightning parameters, such as the temperature and currents in the channel, and their space and time distribution, are then used to produce optical and electromagnetic signal sources that propagate to modeled receivers. This architecture therefore generates a dataset suitable for comparison to existing and envisioned observing systems. The need for additional measurements and field campaigns to support model development is described. In each model sub-component, inputs, outputs, uncertainties, evaluation methods, and next steps are summarized, interleaved with references to the scientific literature. Identifying boundaries between the model sub-components aids in segmenting an integrated, complex model into practical work packages and system sub-components, allowing a diverse team to contribute and maintain the system. We estimate that at least five years of effort and a $\$$10M initial investment is necessary to make a significant step forward. Mechanisms to facilitate community coordination, including annual workshops and open-source code repositories, are described.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗