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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Data Assimilation with Machine Learning Surrogate Models: A Case Study with FourCastNet

Modern data-driven surrogate models for weather forecasting provide accurate short-term predictions but inaccurate and nonphysical long-term forecasts. This paper investigates online weather prediction using machine learning surrogates supplemented with partial and noisy observations. We empirically demonstrate and theoretically justify that, despite the long-time instability of the surrogates and the sparsity of the observations, filtering estimates can remain accurate in the long-time horizon. As a case study, we integrate the Fourier Forecasting Neural Network (FourCastNet), a weather surrogate model, within a variational data assimilation framework using partial, noisy ERA5 global reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Here, our results show that filtering estimates remain accurate over a year-long assimilation window and provide effective initial conditions for forecasting tasks, including extreme event prediction.

Data assimilation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Are Atmospheric Models Too Cold in the Mountains? The State of Science and Insights from the SAIL Field Campaign

Mountains play an outsized role in water resource availability, and the amount and timing of water they provide depend strongly on temperature. To that end, we ask the question: How well are atmospheric models capturing mountain temperatures? We synthesize results showing that high-resolution, regionally relevant climate models produce 2-m air temperature (T2m) measurements colder than what is observed (a “cold bias”), particularly in snow-covered midlatitude mountain ranges during winter. We find common cold biases in 44 studies across global mountain ranges, including single-model and multimodel ensembles. We explore the factors driving these biases and examine the physical mechanisms, data limitations, and observational uncertainties behind T2m. Our analysis suggests that the biases are genuine and not due to observation sparsity or resolution mismatches. Cold biases occur primarily on mountain peaks and ridges, whereas valleys are often warm biased. Our literature review suggests that increasing model resolution does not clearly mitigate the bias. By analyzing data from the Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) field campaign in the Colorado Rocky Mountains, we test various hypotheses related to cold biases and find that local wind circulations, longwave (LW) radiation, and surface-layer parameterizations contribute to the T2m biases in this particular location. We conclude by emphasizing the value of coordinated model evaluation and development efforts in heavily instrumented mountain locations for addressing the root cause(s) of T2m biases and improving predictive understanding of mountain climates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Are Atmospheric Models Too Cold in the Mountains? The State of Science and Insights from the SAIL Field Campaign

Mountains play an outsized role in water resource availability, and the amount and timing of water they provide depend strongly on temperature. To that end, we ask the question: How well are atmospheric models capturing mountain temperatures? We synthesize results showing that high-resolution, regionally relevant climate models produce 2-m air temperature (T2m) measurements colder than what is observed (a “cold bias”), particularly in snow-covered midlatitude mountain ranges during winter. We find common cold biases in 44 studies across global mountain ranges, including single-model and multimodel ensembles. We explore the factors driving these biases and examine the physical mechanisms, data limitations, and observational uncertainties behind T2m. Our analysis suggests that the biases are genuine and not due to observation sparsity or resolution mismatches. Cold biases occur primarily on mountain peaks and ridges, whereas valleys are often warm biased. Our literature review suggests that increasing model resolution does not clearly mitigate the bias. By analyzing data from the Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) field campaign in the Colorado Rocky Mountains, we test various hypotheses related to cold biases and find that local wind circulations, longwave (LW) radiation, and surface-layer parameterizations contribute to the T2m biases in this particular location. We conclude by emphasizing the value of coordinated model evaluation and development efforts in heavily instrumented mountain locations for addressing the root cause(s) of T2m biases and improving predictive understanding of mountain climates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Towards a robust out-of-the-box neural network model for genomic data

The accurate prediction of biological features from genomic data is paramount for precision medicine and sustainable agriculture. For decades, neural network models have been widely popular in fields like computer vision, astrophysics and targeted marketing given their prediction accuracy and their robust performance under big data settings. Yet neural network models have not made a successful transition into the medical and biological world due to the ubiquitous characteristics of biological data such as modest sample sizes, sparsity, and extreme heterogeneity. Here, we investigate the robustness, generalization potential and prediction accuracy of widely used convolutional neural network and natural language processing models with a variety of heterogeneous genomic datasets. Mainly, recurrent neural network models outperform convolutional neural network models in terms of prediction accuracy, overfitting and transferability across the datasets under study. While the perspective of a robust out-of-the-box neural network model is out of reach, we identify certain model characteristics that translate well across datasets and could serve as a baseline model for translational researchers.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

RegularizedOptimization.jl: A Julia framework for regularized and nonsmooth optimization

RegularizedOptimization.jl is a Julia package that implements families of quadratic regularization and trust-region methods for solving the nonsmooth optimization problem $^{\textrm{minimize}}_{𝑥∈ℝ^𝑛}$ 𝑓(𝑥) + ℎ(𝑥) subject to 𝑐(𝑥) = 0, (1) where 𝑓 ∶ ℝ 𝑛 → ℝ and 𝑐 ∶ ℝ 𝑛 → ℝ 𝑚 are continuously differentiable, and ℎ ∶ ℝ 𝑛 → ℝ∪{+∞} is lower semi-continuous. The nonsmooth objective ℎ can be a regularizer, such as a sparsity inducing penalty, model simple constraints, such as 𝑥 belonging to a simple convex set, or can be a combination of both. All 𝑓, ℎ, and 𝑐 can be nonconvex. RegularizedOptimization.jl provides a modular and extensible framework for solving (1), and developing novel solvers. Currently, the following solvers are implemented: • Trust-region solvers TR and TRDH (Aravkin et al., 2022; Leconte & Orban, 2025) • Quadratic regularization solvers R2, R2DH and R2N (Aravkin et al., 2022; Diouane, Habiboullah, et al., 2024) • Levenberg-Marquardt solvers LM and LMTR (Aravkin et al., 2024) used when 𝑓 is a least-squares residual. • Augmented Lagrangian solver AL (De Marchi et al., 2023). All solvers rely on first derivatives of 𝑓 and 𝑐, and optionally on their second derivatives in the form of Hessian-vector products. If second derivatives are not available, quasi-Newton approximations can be used. In addition, the proximal mapping of the nonsmooth part ℎ, or adequate models thereof, must be evaluated. At each iteration, a step is computed by solving a subproblem of the form (1) inexactly, in which 𝑓, ℎ, and 𝑐 are replaced with appropriate models around the current iterate. The solvers R2, R2DH, and TRDH are particularly well suited to solve the subproblems, though they are general enough to solve (1). All solvers are allocation-free, so re-solves incur no additional allocations. To illustrate our claim of extensibility, a first version of the AL solver was implemented by an external contributor. Furthermore, a nonsmooth penalty approach, described in Diouane, Gollier, et al. (2024), is currently being developed, that relies on the library to efficiently solve the subproblems.

Gollier, Maxence [Polytechnique Montréal, QC (Cana↗
DOE OSTI2021

"Spectrally gapped" random walks on networks: a Mean First Passage Time formula

We derive an approximate but explicit formula for the Mean First Passage Time of a random walker between a source and a target node of a directed and weighted network. The formula does not require any matrix inversion, and it takes as only input the transition probabilities into the target node. It is derived from the calculation of the average resolvent of a deformed ensemble of random sub-stochastic matrices H=\langle H\rangle +\delta H H = ⟨ H ⟩ + δ H , with \langle H\rangle ⟨ H ⟩ rank- 1 1 and non-negative. The accuracy of the formula depends on the spectral gap of the reduced transition matrix, and it is tested numerically on several instances of (weighted) networks away from the high sparsity regime, with an excellent agreement.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sivers extraction with Neural Network

Pseudo-data with simulated experimental errors can be generated to train an ensemble of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) implemented on a regression to extract Transverse Momentum-dependent Distributions (TMDs). A preliminary analysis is presented on the reliability in extraction of the Sivers function imposed in the pseudo-data given the bounds on the experimental errors, data sparsity, and complexity of phase-space.

Fernando, Ishara↗
DOE OSTI2021

Locating Seismic Events with Local-Distance Data

As the seismic monitoring community advances toward detecting, identifying, and locating ever-smaller natural and anthropogenic events, the need is constantly increasing for higher resolution, higher fidelity data, models, and methods for accurately characterizing events. Local-distance seismic data provide robust constraints on event locations, but also introduce complexity due to the significant geologic heterogeneity of the Earth’s crust and upper mantle, and the relative sparsity of data that often occurs with small events recorded on regional seismic networks. Identifying the critical characteristics for improving local-scale event locations and the factors that impact location accuracy and reliability is an ongoing challenge for the seismic community. Using Utah as a test case, we examine three data sets of varying duration, finesse, and magnitude to investigate the effects of local earth structure and modeling parameters on local-distance event location precision and accuracy. We observe that the most critical elements controlling relocation precision are azimuthal coverage and local-scale velocity structure, with tradeoffs based on event depth, type, location, and range.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Compressed Natural Gas Component Leak Frequency Estimation

The frequency of unintended releases in a compressed natural gas system is an important aspect of the system quantitative risk assessment. The frequencies for possible release scenarios, along with engineering models, are utilized to quantify the risks for compressed natural gas facilities. This report documents component leakage frequencies representative of compressed natural gas components that were estimated as a function of the normalized leak size. A Bayesian statistical method was used which results in leak frequency distributions for each component which represent variation and uncertainty in the leak frequency. The analysis shows that there is high uncertainty in the estimated leak frequencies due to sparsity in compressed natural gas data. These leak frequencies may still be useful in compressed natural gas system risk assessments, as long as this high uncertainty is acknowledged and considered appropriately.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Final Technical Report for "Cloud-based Low-Scaling Quantum Chemistry Simulations for Materials"

The objective of phase I was to develop the basic infrastructure for performing efficient hybrid DFT calculations on solid materials with a turnaround time amenable to the use in large-scale data-driven approaches. To fulfill the goal we have developed a novel algorithm that significantly reduces the cost of exchange matrix formation. The algorithm does so by making use of three ingredients (a) interpolative decomposition of the electron integrals (b) robust pseudospectral method and (c) occ-RI approach. Our published work demonstrates that the algorithm is orders of magnitude faster than any other hybrid-DFT method and is on the order of only 3-4 times slower than pure DFT. All steps of the algorithm developed during phase I can be accelerated to the point that, for large enough systems, the diagonalization of the Fock matrix will become the most expensive step. To treat such large systems we have created an interface to the ASCR-funded PEXSI library. The PEXSI method is used to compute the density matrix directly from the Fock matrix in a manner that preserves the sparsity of the local representation.

Shiozaki, Toru↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparison of Supervised and Un-Supervised Machine Learning Algorithms for Threat Detection and Scintillator Performance for Radiation Portal Monitoring

Following the events of September 11, 2001, international border crossing have been equipped with radiation portal monitors (RPMs) to identify illicit radioactive material. Polyvinyl toluene (PVT) scintillators are commonly used due to their low cost and reasonable maintainability, however they offer low spectral resolution. Despite the fact that over twenty years has transpired since this event, radioisotopes are still typically identified by hand-crafted classification algorithms, e.g., total counts or energy windowing, and exhibit relatively poor performance in detecting threats at the low false alarm rates required to support the stream of commerce. While some improvement to performance has been realized via the use of supervised machine learning, these classification algorithms typically utilize simulations in lieu of real data due to the sparsity of data for one or more classes. Accordingly, the performance of these algorithms is somewhat less than optimal when examining experiments or simulations with model mismatch. Consequently, in this work, we examine the application of a number of unsupervised machine learning, anomaly detection based algorithms, to circumvent the inverse crime when analyzing spectroscopy data for RPMs. We also compare anomaly detection results with those obtained via the use of supervised classification detection ML algorithms when model mismatch is introduced between the simulated threat items utilized for training/testing. Finally, we compared the performance of the PVT scintillators to those obtained with higher resolution detectors using both anomaly detection and supervised classification algorithms.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2023

Enabling Cybersecurity, Situational Awareness and Resilience in Distribution Grids with High Penetration of Photovoltaics (CARE-PV) (Final Report)

Since legacy distribution systems have very limited visibility beyond the substation, high penetration of PV at the grid edge presents some unique operational challenges. One approach to address these challenges is to use information from advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) and µPMUs. However, exploiting this information is impacted by a number of factors, including multi-timescale measurements, volume of data generated, communication network impairments (e.g., information loss and latency) and susceptibility to cyber-attacks. Therefore, one of the critical tasks involved in the management of a distribution grid is to develop complete situational awareness by integrating cyber-security mechanisms with state estimation strategies and leveraging this situational awareness to assure energy services at strategic locations while exploiting AMI/PV inverter/ µPMU data. This CARE-PV project addresses the fundamental challenges in situational awareness and resilience to cyber and physical vectors by exploiting the synergy between innovative modeling, estimation, data analytics, testing and validation using smart PV inverters designed at K-State and facilities at NREL. Specifically, the project involved the development, testing and validation of the following novel enabling technologies: (Thrust 1) Resilience to cyber vectors that impact data integrity was addressed via a two-level defense strategy that combines cyber intrusion detection using self-learning, cooperative smart PV inverters, and a novel moving target defense framework to combat data integrity attacks. (Thrust 2) Resilience to cyber-physical vectors that impact situational awareness by limiting data availability was addressed via novel centralized and decentralized, sparsity-based static and dynamic state estimation approaches that enhance observability even when the underlying system is unobservable. (Thrust 3) Leveraging a unique probabilistic sensitivity analysis approach accompanied by one-of-a-kind dominant influencer set computation, the vulnerability of critical infrastructure at strategic locations was evaluated so that proactive PV-based control strategies can be used to support operations under normal/outage scenarios. These CARE-PV project innovations were demonstrated on both small-scale IEEE and larger utility-scale testbeds (Thrust 4). Feedback from Industry Advisory Board members was used to formulate a commercialization pathway for a subset of CARE-PV technologies. These CARE-PV technologies will ultimately lead to reliable and secure, large-scale integration of renewable energy and mitigate the risk of energy disruption resulting from cyber incidents and other emerging threats within the energy environment.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exploration with Scalable Gaussian Process Reinforcement Learning

Exploration is a challenging problem in reinforcement learning (RL), especially in environments with sparse rewards. Quantifying and utilizing the parametric uncertainty has been shown to be paramount for successful exploration [Osband et al., 2018]. Bayesian, or approximately Bayesian, methods present a principled means of estimating the parametric uncertainty in RL problems. Gaussian processes, nonparametric Bayesian models, are often impractical due to poor scalability and computational bottlenecks. We introduce a scalable Gaussian process RL (GPRL) method which directly induces sparsity in the covariance matrix to facilitate faster computation. This is a departure from previous GPRL methods which instead rely on data reduction and subsampling. We compare various covariance-based exploration techniques (Thompson sampling, upper confidence bound, and probabilistic maximum variance) which leverage our scalable GP framework in sparse reward environments. Finally, we show favorable comparison against the bootstrapped deep Q-Network.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Efficient Dimension Reduction of Complex Three-dimensional CO2 Saturation using Deep Learning Models

In the domain of deep learning (DL), dimension reduction is crucial for enhancing training efficiency and mitigating overfitting, particularly when managing complex data such as three-dimensional (3D) saturation data. The 3D saturation data in the context of geological carbon storage (GCS) presents unique challenges due to its inherent sparsity and the abrupt transitions at plume boundaries, known as shock fronts. To address the challenges, we proposed a novel DL framework that integrates dimension reduction with advanced 3D reconstruction techniques. Our model leveraged latent variables derived from 2D average saturation data, offering a robust and efficient solution tailored to the intricate dynamics of 3D saturation fields. The proposed framework can extract the critical features of the high-dimensional data while reducing the variable numbers, which is more tractable for DL models and enhances the model robustness and accuracy. Therefore, it provides a novel approach for modeling and analyses in complex geological scenarios, which finds great potential applications in environmental monitoring and energy storage.

Wang, Hongsheng↗
DOE OSTI2024

AEOLUS: Advances in Experimental Design, Optimal Control, and Learning for Uncertain Complex Systems

Sustained advances in the mathematics of modeling and simulation have resulted in the capability today for routine simulation of a number of large scale complex DOE-relevant systems. As remarkable as this capability for solving the so-called forward problem is, it is typically only the first step-an inner loop within an outer loop that explores the simulation model's parameter space and decision space to characterize uncertainty in the model's predictions, learn unknown model parameters from data, design the most informative experiments, determine optimal control strategies, and create optimal designs. Broadly, what unifies all of these outer loop problems is that they are, in one form or another, optimization problems over parameter/control/design space that are constrained by complex uncertain models. To fully realize the power of scientific simulation as a basis for scientific discovery, technological innovation, and rational decision-making, it is imperative to move beyond simulation to tackle the outer loop of optimization for learning from data, experimental design, and control with complex uncertain models. When the models under consideration are large-scale and complex, and when the optimization variable and uncertain parameter spaces are high (or infinite) dimensional, this constitutes a grand challenge of the highest order, and is intractable with conventional methods. To overcome these challenges, the AEOLUS Center was established to develop a unified mathematical, computational, and statistical framework for (1) Learning predictive models from complex data via Bayesian inference and optimization, and (2) Optimizing experiments, processes, and designs using the resulting uncertain models. These problems are intractable with conventional methods, for several reasons: (1) The simulation problems that govern the inner loops of the optimization problems are expensive to execute (due to severe nonlinearity, heterogeneity, multiphysics/multiscale coupling); (2) The optimization variable and uncertain parameter spaces are high dimensional, often stemming from discretizations of infinite dimensional fields such as initial conditions, sources, or material properties. We argue that the key to overcoming these challenges is to develop new mathematical, computational, and statistical methods that exploit the structure of the Bayesian inference and optimization problems mediated by their underlying complex uncertain models. This structure includes the regularity, sparsity, geometry, low intrinsic dimensionality, and multifidelity nature of the maps from uncertain parameter/optimization variable spaces to the specific objectives targeted: Bayesian inference, optimal experimental design, and optimal control design. Black box methods developed as generic tools are incapable of exploiting this structure. To be successful, we must create, integrate, and cross-fertilize ideas across multiple areas of applied math--including approximation theory, Bayesian inference, data science, experimental design, information theory, machine learning, model reduction, optimal control theory, parallel algorithms, PDE-constrained optimization, randomized algorithms, stochastic optimization, and uncertainty quantification--all while exploiting the structure of the problems at hand. With this goal in mind, we have marshaled a team of leading authorities in these areas. While the methods we develop will be broadly applicable across a wide spectrum of DOE problems in which experiments inform models and the systems those models describe must be optimized under uncertainty, we have chosen a specific area, advanced manufacturing and materials, to drive our work. AMM is characterized by complex models across multiple scales, and is a rich source of challenging problems in inference, experimental design, and optimal control, requiring multifaceted and integrated advances in applied mathematics. As such, AMM serves as an excellent vehicle to motivate and demonstrate the advances in applied mathematics developed by our center.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Compressed sensing methods with applications to advanced air sampling

Environmental sampling methods developed by the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) employ collectors with sorbent media tubes set at various locations to collect airborne emissions. Laboratory analyses of these tubes results in one-dimensional signals regarding what chemicals are being released and transported within the atmosphere. The analysis process is time consuming especially when analyzing a full year’s worth of tubes (hourly sample collection results in nearly 9,000 tubes per year). Using a signal processing method such as compressed sensing allows for recreation of the full signal while greatly reducing the number of analyzed samples required. Due to the sparsity of data retrieved from the air tubes, it is possible to use measurements a fraction of the size of the original data to gain much of the same information. This would improve the overall time and cost of analysis when modeling one-dimensional sampling signals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

NEAMS Technical Area Support in MOOSE

The Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) framework is a foundational capability used by the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program to create over 15 different simulation tools for advanced nuclear reactors. Due to this ubiquity, improvements to the framework in support of modeling and simulation goals are critical to the program. These improvements can take many forms, including optimization, improved user experience, streamlined application programming interfaces (APIs), parallelism, and other new capabilities. The work described in this report was conducted in direct support of the simulation tools and has already been deployed. The capabilities outlined in this report include implementing hash table matrix assembly for efficient sparsity pattern construction for contact in BISON, developing re-step testing infrastructure for ensuring the viability of overlapping domain coupling between SAM and Pronghorn, allowing unique preconditioners for single-input multi-system solves, supporting multi-system in MOOSE’s workhorse executioners, and many more smaller feature enhancements and bug fixes.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Compressed Sensing Methods with Applications to Advanced Air Sampling [Poster]

Environmental sampling methods developed by the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) employ collectors with sorbent media tubes set at various locations to collect airborne emissions. Laboratory analyses of these tubes results in one-dimensional signals regarding what chemicals are being released and transported within the atmosphere. The analysis process is time consuming especially when analyzing a full year’s worth of tubes (hourly sample collection results in nearly 9,000 tubes per year). Using a signal processing method such as compressed sensing allows for recreation of the full signal while greatly reducing the number of analyzed samples required. Due to the sparsity of data retrieved from the air tubes, it is possible to use measurements a fraction of the size of the original data to gain much of the same information. This would improve the overall time and cost of analysis when modeling one-dimensional sampling signals.

Campbell, Cassidy [Savannah River National Laborat↗