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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2023

CERESMIP: A Climate Modeling Protocol to Investigate Recent Trends in the Earth's Energy Imbalance

The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project has now produced over two decades of observed data on the Earth's Energy Imbalance (EEI) and has revealed substantive trends in both the reflected shortwave and outgoing longwave top-of-atmosphere radiation components. Available climate model simulations suggest that these trends are incompatible with purely internal variability, but that the full magnitude and breakdown of the trends are outside of the model ranges. Unfortunately, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 6) (CMIP6) protocol only uses observed forcings to 2014 (and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) projections thereafter), and furthermore, many of the ‘observed' drivers have been updated substantially since the CMIP6 inputs were defined. Most notably, the sea surface temperature (SST) estimates have been revised and now show up to 50% greater trends since 1979, particularly in the southern hemisphere. Additionally, estimates of short-lived aerosol and gas-phase emissions have been substantially updated. These revisions will likely have material impacts on the model-simulated EEI. We therefore propose a new, relatively low-cost, model intercomparison, CERESMIP, that would target the CERES period (2000-present), with updated forcings to at least the end of 2021. The focus will be on atmosphere-only simulations, using updated SST, forcings and emissions from 1990 to 2021. The key metrics of interest will be the EEI and atmospheric feedbacks, and so the analysis will benefit from output from satellite cloud observation simulators. The Tier 1 request would consist only of an ensemble of AMIP-style simulations, while the Tier 2 request would encompass uncertainties in the applied forcing, atmospheric composition, single and all-but-one forcing responses. We present some preliminary results and invite participation from a wide group of models.

CMIP6↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Climate Fingerprinting Sounder Product (ClimFiSP) Skin Temperature Trends Analysis

Climate fingerprinting Sounder Product (ClimFiSP) has been developed at NASA Langley Research Center which includes daily skin temperature, surface emissivity, air temperature, H2O, trace gases, and cloud properties on 0.5x0.5 grid. Those properties are derived from IR hyper-spectral radiance measured by AIRS on Aqua and CrIS on SNPP and JPSS series. Global skin temperature trends have been derived using more than 20 years of monthly mean skin temperature data from ClimFiSP. The ClimFiSP algorithm use the spectral fingerprinting methodology that allows a low latency procession of more than two decades long satellite data record. The computational cost can be reduced by more than two orders of magnitude as compared with traditional Level-Level2-Level3 retrieval algorithms. In this presentation the global skin temperature trend from ClimFiSP will be compared with skin temperature trend derived from CLIMCAPS, ERA5, GISTEMP, HadCRUT5, and IASI data products, and the results show that pattern of ClimFiSP global skin temperature trends overall matches well with other datasets. The zonally averaged skin temperature anomaly will also be validated using those datasets. It is expected that ClimFiSP surface temperature data can serve as an important complement for surface-based estimates, especially in the regions where the spatial coverage of the surface-based observations is scarce.

Liqiao Lei↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Variability and Trends in Dates of the Last Spring Freeze and the First Fall Freeze over the United States

The timing of the last freeze of the spring and the first freeze in the fall have implications for agriculture and ecosystems in a region, and changes in theses dates are expected with a changing climate. In this study, indices used to represent these dates are computed from the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). The indices are analyzed over the United States to assess the climatology, trends, and variability over 1980-2023. In general, the last spring freeze date has trended earlier, and the first fall freeze date has trended later over this period; regional variations in these trends are investigated. We explore drivers of interannual variability in the timing of the last spring freeze and first fall freeze for different regions of the United States.

Natalie Thomas↗
NASA NTRS2006

Future Mission Trends and their Implications for the Deep Space Network

Planning for the upgrade and/or replacement of Deep Space Network (DSN) assets that typically operate for forty or more years necessitates understanding potential customer needs as far into the future as possible. This paper describes the methodology Deep Space Network (DSN) planners use to develop this understanding, some key future mission trends that have emerged from application of this methodology, and the implications of the trends for the DSN's future evolution. For NASA's current plans out to 2030, these trends suggest the need to accommodate: three times as many communication links, downlink rates two orders of magnitude greater than today's, uplink rates some four orders of magnitude greater, and end-to-end link difficulties two-to-three orders of magnitude greater. To meet these challenges, both DSN capacity and capability will need to increase.

future mission needs↗
NASA NTRS2008

Anomaly Trends for Missions to Mars: Mars Global Surveyor and Mars Odyssey

The long term flight operations of the Mars Global Surveyor and Mars Odyssey spacecraft give us an excellent chance to examine the operations of two long lived spacecraft in orbit around Mars during overlapping time periods. This study examined the anomalies for each mission maintained for NASA at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. By examining the anomalies each mission encountered during their multiyear missions, trends were identified related to when anomalies occurred during each mission, the types of anomalies encountered, and corrective actions taken to mitigate the effects of the anomalies. As has been discovered in previous studies the numbers of anomalies directly correlate with mission activity and show a decreasing trend with elapsed mission time. Trend analysis also identified a heavy emphasis on software as the source or solution to anomalies for both missions.

Mars↗
NASA NTRS2014

Management and Climate Contributions to Satellite-Derived Active Fire Trends in the Contiguous United States

Fires in croplands, plantations, and rangelands contribute significantly to fire emissions in the United States, yet are often overshadowed by wildland fires in efforts to develop inventories or estimate responses to climate change. Here we quantified decadal trends, interannual variability, and seasonality of Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations of active fires (thermal anomalies) as a function of management type in the contiguous U.S. during 2001-2010. We used the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity database to identify active fires within the perimeter of large wildland fires and land cover maps to identify active fires in croplands. A third class of fires defined as prescribed/other included all residual satellite active fire detections. Large wildland fires were the most variable of all three fire types and had no significant annual trend in the contiguous U.S. during 2001-2010. Active fires in croplands, in contrast, increased at a rate of 3.4 percent per year. Cropland and prescribed/other fire types combined were responsible for 77 percent of the total active fire detections within the U.S and were most abundant in the south and southeast. In the west, cropland active fires decreased at a rate of 5.9 percent per year, likely in response to intensive air quality policies. Potential evaporation was a dominant regulator of the interannual variability of large wildland fires, but had a weaker influence on the other two fire types. Our analysis suggests it may be possible to modify landscape fire emissions within the U.S. by influencing the way fires are used in managed ecosystems.

Satellite-derived↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluating Twenty-Year Trends in Earth’s Energy Flows from Observations

Recent satellite and ocean in-situ observations indicate a doubling of Earth’s Energy Imbalance (EEI) since 2005 that is a consequence of anthropogenic forcing, internal variability, and climate feedbacks. In this study, we follow-up with an assessment of how other components of Earth’s energy budget have changed since 2000 and how well these can be tracked. Specifically, we use top-of-atmosphere and surface observations from the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) and calculations of atmospheric divergence of energy transport from ERA-5 to determine the change in total surface flux along with its radiative and turbulent heat flux components. We also assess trends in ocean heat uptake for different ocean layers using various ocean reanalysis datasets. We compare trends derived using various observational and modeling approaches to assess how robust the derived trends are. Our analysis is restricted to global, hemispheric and regional spatial scales and annual mean and seasonal timescales.

CERES↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Footprints of 16 Year Trends of Arctic Springtime Cloud and Radiation Properties on September Sea Ice Retreat

The most prominent September Arctic sea ice decline over the period of 2000–2015 occurs over the Siberian Sea, Laptev Sea, and Kara Sea. The satellite observed and retrieved sea ice concentration (SIC) and cloud/radiation properties over the Arctic (70°–90°N) have been used to investigate the impact of springtime cloud and radiation properties on September SIC variation. Positive trends of cloud fractions, cloud water paths, and surface downward longwave flux at the surface over the September sea ice retreat areas are found over the period of 1 March to 14 May, while negative trends are found over the period of 15 May to 28 June. The spatial distributions of correlations between springtime cloud/radiation properties and September SIC have been calculated, indicating that increasing cloud fractions and downward longwave flux during springtime tend to enhance sea ice melting due to strong cloud warming effect. Surface downward and upward shortwave fluxes play an important role from May to June when the onset of sea ice melting occurs. The comparison between linearly detrended and nondetrended of each parameter indicates that significant impact of cloud and radiation properties on September sea ice retreat occurs over the Chukchi/Beaufort Sea at interannual time scale, especially over the period of 31 March to 29 April, while strongest climatological trends are found over the Laptev/Siberian Sea.

Arctic sea ice trend↗
DOE OSTI2024

Blind QC trend presentation

Blind testing is used to evaluate performance of the radiobioassay laboratory. DOE-STD-1112-2019 requires a radiobioassay program to perform blind testing at a documented frequency including accuracy, false positive, false negative, and sensitivity evaluations. INL trends accuracy determinations over time for bias, agreement, and precision. Trends have been identified for certain isotopes in urine and feces that have not been fully explained. This presentation will review those identified trends and discuss possible causes and solutions.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2024

Counterintuitive Trend of Intrusion Pressure with Temperature in the Hydrophobic Cu 2 (tebpz) MOF

Liquid porosimetry experiments reveal a peculiar trend of the intrusion pressure of water in hydrophobic Cu 2 (3,3',5,5'-tetraethyl-4,4'-bipyrazolate) MOF. At lower temperature (T) range, the intrusion pressure (P i ) increases with T. For higher T values, P i first reaches a maximum and then decreases. This is at odds with the Young–Laplace law, which for systems showing a continuous decrease of contact angle with T predicts a corresponding reduction of the intrusion pressure. Though the Young–Laplace law is not expected to provide quantitative predictions at the subnanoscale of Cu 2 (tebpz) pores, the physical intuition suggests that to a reduction of their hydrophobicity corresponds a reduction of the P i . Molecular dynamics simulations and sychrothron experiments allowed to clarify the mechanism of the peculiar trend of P i with T. At increasing temperatures the vapor density within the MOF’ pores grows significantly, bringing the corresponding partial pressure to ≈5 MPa. This pressure, which is consistent with the shift of P i observed in liquid porosimetry, represents a threshold to be overcame before intrusion takes place. Beyond some value of temperature, the phenomenon of reduction of hydrophobicity (and water surface tension) dominated over the opposite effect of increase of vapor pressure and P i inverts its trend with T.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Unique Temperature Trend Pattern Associated With Internally Driven Global Cooling and Arctic Warming During 1980–2022

Abstract Diagnosing the role of internal variability over recent decades is critically important for both model validation and projections of future warming. Recent research suggests that for 1980–2022 internal variability manifested as Global Cooling and Arctic Warming (i‐GCAW), leading to enhanced Arctic Amplification (AA), and suppressed global warming over this period. Here we show that such an i‐GCAW is rare in CMIP6 large ensembles, but simulations that do produce similar i‐GCAW exhibit a unique and robust internally driven global surface air temperature (SAT) trend pattern. This unique SAT trend pattern features enhanced warming in the Barents and Kara Sea and cooling in the Tropical Eastern Pacific and Southern Ocean. Given that these features are imprinted in the observed record over recent decades, this work suggests that internal variability makes a crucial contribution to the discrepancy between observations and model‐simulated forced SAT trend patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Recent Increasing Trend in October–November Caribbean Tropical Cyclone Activity

October–November Caribbean tropical cyclone (TC) activity has significant impacts for both the Caribbean islands and Central America (e.g., Hurricanes Eta and Iota in 2020). October–November Caribbean TCs can also track northward and make continental United States landfall, resulting in substantial damage and fatalities (e.g., Hurricane Michael in 2018 and Delta and Zeta in 2020). We find significant increasing trends in October–November Caribbean hurricanes, rapidly intensifying hurricanes (winds increasing by ≥15 m s −1 within 24 hr), and landfalling hurricanes during the global satellite era (1979–present). Since 1979, we also observe significant warming trends in the western Atlantic Warm Pool and anomalous relative cooling in the eastern Pacific during October–November. These trends yield a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for Caribbean TCs, including reductions in Caribbean vertical wind shear, increases in Caribbean potential intensity, and a more TC-conducive African easterly jet.

Klotzbach, P. J. [Colorado State Univ., Fort Colli↗
DOE OSTI2026

Long-term socioeconomic trends and climate variability as drivers of virtual water scarcity in China

Water scarcity can have far-reaching sectoral impacts beyond its physical location through the propagation of virtual water flows. Socioeconomic and hydroclimatic changes affect local and virtual water scarcity by altering availability and demand. Yet most studies of this phenomenon focus on volumetric footprints, and the few on water scarcity risk have not examined hydroclimatic variability beyond long-term trends. In this study, we ask how gross domestic product (GDP) and population changes, long-term meteorological trends, sea surface temperature (SST) patterns, and interannual meteorological variability affect water scarcity in China, both locally (through the local water scarcity risk index, LWSR) and remotely (through the virtual water scarcity risk index, VWSR). Counterfactual scenarios were compared in a regression-and-simulation framework, with the socioeconomic and meteorological drivers varying over 1923–2019 and the multi-regional input–output structure staying fixed at 2017. Relative to a 5 year baseline centered on 2017, GDP and population changes have induced a cumulative 17%–50% increase in LWSR and 13%–21% increase in VWSR, outweighing the effect of long-term meteorological trends. phase change in one of two examined SST patterns induce 4%–13% differences in LWSR and 1%–4% differences in VWSR. Interannual meteorological variability induces 10%–20% standard deviations in LWSR and 3%–7% in VWSR. The findings highlight the importance of using longer time series to accurately assess local and virtual water scarcity situations. Water scarcity management should prioritize socioeconomic factors when planning at century-long timescales and prioritize hydroclimatic factors at multidecadal or shorter timescales. water managers should consider interannual variabilities in LWSR and VWSR and plan for potential occurrences of extreme conditions.

climate variability↗
DOE OSTI2025

Substituent effect on napthodithiophene-fused porphyrins: Understanding the unusual trend of fluorescence quantum yield quenching

A series of π-extended porphyrins containing thiophene units was prepared to investigate an unusual trend observed in the fluorescence quantum yield of naphtho[2,1-b:3,4-b']dithiophene-fused porphyrins. Monobenzoporphyrins carrying 2-thiophenyl (vinyl thiophene porphyrin) groups (2VTP, 2VTBr and Br2VTP) (numbering 2 and 3 refers to the position of sulfur on the thiophene ring) were synthesized through a Heck-based cascade reaction followed by a newly developed bromination method. These were converted to naphtho[2,1-b:3,4-b']dithiophene-fused porphyrin derivatives (FBr2VTP and F2VTBr) via ring closure with an intramolecular Scholl reaction. Increasingly larger Stokes shifts with a higher number of bromo groups were observed in the unfused π-extended molecular systems, reflecting the heavy atom effect. Fluorescence spectroscopy further confirmed the unusual trend seen in the previous work: structural rigidification in naphtho[2,1-b:3,4-b']dithiophene-fused porphyrins leads to longer fluorescence lifetimes but unexpectedly lowers the quantum yield. Adding one bromo group to the naphtho[2,1-b:3,4-b']dithiophene unit does not change this trend. Furthermore, the presence of two bromo groups prevents the quantum yield from dropping. DFT, TDDFT, and NICS analyses suggest a drastic change in aromaticity in the pyrrole ring where the naphtho[2,1-b:3,4-b']dithiophene is fused in FBr2VTP, which might contribute to the quantum yield reductions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Contrasting Trends in Colorado Fire Weather Index from Reanalysis and Observations

Recent wildfires in Colorado raise the question of whether rising global temperatures have increased fire weather occurrences in Colorado. The U.S. National Weather Service defines fire weather as when “forecast weather conditions will result in a significant threat for the ignition and/or spread of wildfires.” We use two datasets to address the question: “How has the occurrence of fire weather changed in Colorado?” Using 22 years of observed weather conditions from a meteorological tower at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and 67 years of ERA5 reanalysis data, we assess changing trends in Colorado fire weather as defined by hot, dry, and windy conditions. Additionally, we explore if the difference in recorded wind speeds between observational data and reanalysis data can be explained by differences in spatial and temporal resolution and what are the implications in the context of quantifying fire weather occurrences. The observational data are limited in temporal extent and spatial representativeness, but they capture exact real-world conditions at a location in complex terrain. The reanalysis data are available for an extended period of time and for the entire state, but the data are of relatively coarse spatial and temporal resolution and may fail to capture extremes. To quantify fire risk, we calculate the hot–dry–windy index (HDWI), which relies on wind speed and vapor pressure deficit. No statistically significant trend in the HDWI appears in the observational dataset. However, according to the reanalysis data, strong increasing trends in HDWI values emerge across all of Colorado. This apparent conflict between observational and reanalysis data suggests that reanalysis data may not be representative. Further, more long-term observational datasets are required to assess fire risk.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tracking the Sun: Pricing and Design Trends for Distributed Photovoltaic Systems in the United States, 2024 Edition [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s annual Tracking the Sun report describes trends among grid-connected, distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) and paired PV+storage systems in the United States. For the purpose of this report, distributed solar includes residential systems, roof-mounted non-residential systems, and ground-mounted systems up to 5 MW-AC. Ground-mounted systems larger than 5 MW-AC are covered in Berkeley Lab’s companion annual report, Utility-Scale Solar. The latest edition of the report is based on 3.7 million systems installed through year-end 2023, representing close to 80% of systems installed to date. The report describes and discusses key trends related to: -Project characteristics, including system size, module efficiencies, roof-coverage ratios, prevalence of paired PV with storage, use of module-level power electronics, third-party ownership, mounting configurations, panel orientation, and customer segmentation -Median installed-price trends, both nationally and by state -Variability in pricing according to system size, state, installer, equipment type, and other factors, relying on both descriptive analysis and a multi-variate regression to estimate the effects of key pricing drivers for residential systems installed in 2023.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Futureproofing through 2035 for the AI and HPC Power Density Trend

HPC and AI are businesses necessitating growth for providing performance improvement with increased power and cooling. As HPC and AI computers and their supporting facilities approach utility scale with a frequency of technology innovation outpacing utility and construction timelines, understanding and designing for this trend has become critical. This paper will provide historical trend data for facilities and compute racks, relate power trend data to cooling technology capabilities, and reason through constraints impacting anticipated future power densities to aid the reader in futureproofing a facility’s power and cooling systems through the mid-2030’s.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hydropower Capacity Factor Trends & Analytics for the United States

This data repository contains all code, input data, and data generated for Turner et al. (2024)—“Hydropower capacity factors trending down in the United States”. File descriptions: – hydro-cf-trends-inputs.zip: Full set of input data used in this study, organized for direct entry into “/data” directory of hydro-cf-trends data processing pipeline. – hydro-cf-trends.zip: Full data processing pipeline, coded using the R {targets} framework. This is a snapshot release (v1.0) of the code repository stored at https://code.ornl.gov/turnersw/hydro-cf-trends/. – hydro-cf-trends-results.zip: Provides all dam level results required to reproduce results and graphics in Turner et al. (2024). Dams are identified by the “complxID” (root of the hydropower plant ID in the Existing Hydropower Assets Database, inherited from HILARRI). Results include: • dam_CF_trends.csv: Table of long-term trends in annualized capacity factors for 610 dams and modeled annualized capacity factors for 362 modeled dams (naturalized and assimilated flows). • dam_annualized_CF_gen.csv: Annualized time series of the following variables for each of 610 hydropower dams with nameplate > 5MW – Reported nameplate capacity (MW) – Implied maximum annual generation (MWh) – Reported net generation (MWh) – Computed annual capacity factor – Modeled annual capacity factor (362 modeled plants only)

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗