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Status of SAS4A/SASSYS-1 Software Development and Application (FY2024)

SAS4A/SASSYS-1 is a simulation tool used to perform deterministic analysis of anticipated events as well as design basis and beyond design basis accidents for advanced liquid-metal-cooled nuclear reactors. With its origin as SAS1A in the late 1960s, the SAS series of codes has been under continuous use and development for over fifty years. It has been identified as a critical element of safety analysis capabilities for the U.S. Department of Energy and is utilized within industry to perform the transient safety analyses required to support the licensing of Liquid Metal-cooled Fast Reactors (LMFRs). This report summarizes the code development and update activities carried out during FY2024. In FY2024, programmatic activities focused on key improvements to software useability, such as enhanced user interfaces for reactivity feedback modeling, improvements in stability/useability of the Code Manual, and improvements to the acceptance testing infrastructure, including automation of acceptance testing and generation of the Acceptance Testing Report. To support end user applications, an open training was held, a semi-public forum was maintained, and a practical benchmarking and validation matrix was developed which allowed limitations of existing testing capabilities to be assessed. The existing fuel models were also enhanced with improved modeling capabilities and testing for the oxide and annular fuel models.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Report for LANSCE Futures Spring 2021 Workshop Series

The Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE) has a long and successful history of delivering high-impact science for NNSA missions. The breadth of science LANSCE delivers is enabled by a unique combination of beam power, flexibility, and authorization basis. Though LANSCE is entering its 50th year of operations, current plans for the stockpile require LANSCE capabilities beyond 2050. These requirements demand a technical conversation about the accelerator and the long-term scientific vision for the facility, so we convened a set of workshops to initiate that conversation. The LANSCE Futures workshops spanned three capability areas of LANSCE: dynamic radiography, scattering science, and nuclear science. Participants included the relevant experts from the programs sponsoring LANSCE, the experimentalists utilizing the end-stations, and accelerator systems experts. A final workshop combined the three focus areas to begin the conversation about capabilities that could meet future mission needs.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

High-Burnup BWR LOCA Burst Analysis Using High-Fidelity Multiphysics Simulations

The US nuclear industry is looking to improve on the operating economics of the current fleet of light-water reactors (LWRs). One way of achieving this is by operating fuel to higher burnup. In pressurized water reactors (PWRs), relaxing the current burnup limit will allow for cycle length extensions and power uprates; in boiling water reactors (BWRs) it may allow for improved fuel utilization and reduced feed assemblies, as well as more efficient power uprates and increased capacity factors that will support the Administration’s Executive Order to facilitate 5 GW of power uprates at existing nuclear facilities. However, one of the key limitations to operating fuel to higher burnup is the risk of fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersal (FFRD). Recognizing the high interest in extending burnup limits, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has issued Draft Regulatory Guide DG-1434, which defines an approach that would be acceptable to the NRC for addressing FFRD risk. The approach defined will require better understanding of the phenomena leading to FFRD as well as best-estimate simulation methods to understand FFRD risk in high-burnup cores. The Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program is supporting the FFRD industry challenge problem through development of state-of-the-art, high-fidelity modeling and simulation LWR analysis capabilities; namely, the BISON fuel performance code and the VERA core simulator software. These tools, along with the US NRC TRACE system analysis code, have been utilized for analysis of FFRD risk in both PWR and BWR cores in recent years. The work documented in this report addresses the lack of high-fidelity research for BWRs and builds on a previous activity where the framework has been applied to Cycles 16 through 18 of Limerick Unit 1, a BWR/4, with introduction of 8 high-burnup lead use assemblies (HBLUAs) that were representative of the 8 HBLUAs loaded into Limerick Unit 2 in 2021. VERA was used in this previous activity to model rod-by-rod depletion in these cycles, and its solution was used to initialize a TRACE simulation of a large-break loss-of-coolant accident (LBLOCA) at the end of Cycle 18. In the work documented in this report, the TRACE model was improved by refining the core mesh and utilizing a new feature that allows for capturing the full 3D VERA power distribution in the model. This allows for a more detailed solution for setting BISON boundary conditions. Furthermore, the solutions from VERA and TRACE were used to set up and perform BISON simulations of about 1,000 rods sampled from the core, including all burnup levels. Utilizing two cladding burst models, it was shown that no fuel rods were predicted to burst during the postulated LBLOCA transient. Additionally, a sensitivity study was performed by artificially increasing linear heat rate during the postulated LBLOCA to identify parameters that correlate with rod burst susceptibility. Burnup, fission gas release, and hoop strain were all found to be positively correlated with rod burst susceptibility. Small-break loss-of-coolant accident (SBLOCA) analyses were also performed; these analyses predicted cladding temperature increases that were bounded by the LBLOCA cladding temperatures for all small break sizes studied for this plant. However, future refinements to the plant response assumptions during the SBLOCA could impact the predicted cladding response. Finally, a benchmark study was performed between CTF and TRACE for LOCA conditions to better qualify CTF for BWR LOCA modeling.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Developing Metrics to Evaluate the Skill and Credibility of Downscaling

In this project, our overarching goal was to evaluate the skill and credibility of statistical and dynamical downscaling techniques for reconstructing the historical climate record and projecting future climate change. This report summarizes our approach and accomplishments. In the first year of the project, the priority was to generate new data sets. For Year 2, the overall goal was to focus comparisons during the historical period and for a subset of variables, especially temperature and precipitation. In Year 3 and beyond, the focus was mainly on comparisons and metrics for future climate change simulations. To quantify the uncertainty associated with gridded dataset choice, the UCLA group compared eight gridded temperature datasets, examining climatologies, variability, and trends. The Scripps group completed statistical downscaling of NARR with the LOCA method, and UCLA and Scripps collaborated on a comparison of historical and end-of-century temperature and precipitation patterns over California from WRF, LOCA-WRF, and LOCA-Livneh. In addition to downscaling temperature and precipitation, the Scripps group has spent considerable time working on near-surface wind and humidity downscaling. The Santa Clara group assembled the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) for nine snow-dominated river basins draining the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada range and assessed the role of snow albedo feedback in their VIC simulations. The results will help inform future downscaling studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Developing Metrics to Evaluate the Skill and Credibility of Downscaling (Final Report)

In this project, our overarching goal was to evaluate the skill and credibility of statistical and dynamical downscaling techniques for reconstructing the historical climate record and projecting future climate change. This report summarizes our approach and accomplishments. In the first year of the project, the priority was to generate new data sets. For Year 2, the overall goal was to focus comparisons during the historical period and for a subset of variables, especially temperature and precipitation. In Year 3 and beyond, the focus was mainly on comparisons and metrics for future climate change simulations. To quantify the uncertainty associated with gridded dataset choice, the UCLA group compared eight gridded temperature datasets, examining climatologies, variability, and trends. The Scripps group completed statistical downscaling of NARR with the LOCA method, and UCLA and Scripps collaborated on a comparison of historical and end-of-century temperature and precipitation patterns over California from WRF, LOCA-WRF, and LOCA-Livneh. In addition to downscaling temperature and precipitation, the Scripps group has spent considerable time working on near-surface wind and humidity downscaling. The Santa Clara group assembled the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) for nine snow-dominated river basins draining the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada range and assessed the role of snow albedo feedback in their VIC simulations. The results will help inform future downscaling studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

New England Aqua Ventus I: 100% Hull Design (Final Technical Report)

This report serves as the final technical report for the US Department of Energy (DOE) award DE-EE0006713 (Award 6713). The project is titled “New England Aqua Ventus I Offshore Wind Advanced Technology Demonstration Project 100% Front-End Engineering and Design (FEED)”. The New England Aqua Ventus I (NEAV) project demonstrates a unique prestressed concrete semi-submersible floating hull technology, called VolturnUS. The technology is applicable to harness nearly 60% of the US offshore wind resource within 50 miles of the coast. The hull will be demonstrated at full-scale with a commercial scale wind turbine connected to the grid in the Northeast US off Monhegan Island, Maine for 20 years.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Chemically and mechanically recyclable polyester-based multilayer plastics

Approximately 100 million tons of multilayered plastics (MLPs) are produced each year worldwide but are not recycled due to their complex structure. Here, this work aims to design polyester-based multilayer plastics (80–100 % polyester) that provide barrier performance comparable to typical 9–12-layer commercial MLPs, while also enabling both chemical recycling (back to parent monomer) and mechanical recycling (grind-and-melt reprocessing). Such dual recyclability is not achievable with non-polyester multilayers, such as all-polyolefin systems. Furthermore, we emphasize how the multilayer architecture was tailored to balance barrier properties, mechanical integrity, and end-of-life recyclability for both flexible and rigid packaging applications. Two main categories of polyester-based MLPs are reported; in the first type, poly(butylene adipate-co-terephthalate) (PBAT)-70 % polyglycolic acid (PGA) is used as middle barrier layer, while in second type, middle barrier layer is Ethylene-vinyl alcohol (EVOH) copolymers. Polyethylene terephthalate (PET) was used as a structural layer, while either PBAT or poly(butylene succinate) (PBS) was used to enable thermal sealing and serve as the product contact layer. These MLPs are recycled by both chemical and mechanical recycling processes. Techno-economic analysis (TEA) shows that MLPs incorporating EVOH as barrier layer have similar or lower selling costs (0.32 $\$$/m 2 ) than commercial MLPs. Life cycle assessment (LCA) indicates EVOH-based MLPs have a lower carbon footprint and lower energy consumption relative to commercial MLP benchmarks. This work offers simplified MLPs that are easy to manufacture and ready to recycle, which will significantly reduce environmental impact of MLP packaging while also providing a cost-effective and practical solution for industry.

Barrier properties↗

TEAL Output Visualization

Tool for Economic Analysis (TEAL) is an open-source economics calculation package written and maintained by Idaho National Laboratory (INL). As a plugin of the Risk Analysis Virtual ENvironment (RAVEN), TEAL provides economics analysis models to RAVEN workflow users. In addition, TEAL is used in other RAVEN plugins such as LOGOS and the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) to complement other analyses with economic calculations. This report documents the efforts in developing the capability of TEAL output visualization for users to better understand and investigate TEAL simulation results. In the past, outputs (e.g., various cash flows) were generated and printed to screen. According to the need and purpose for visualization, users can select various bar charts and donut charts to visualize the cash flows including inflows, outflows, and net cash flows in each year or in a selected time range, in addition to observing data stored in comma-separated value files (CSVs). The visualization capability is flexible and user-friendly by introducing several user-defined parameters, for instance, the start and the end project year of interest and the type of colors to be assigned to the cash flows.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

High Yield Xray Imager Final Design Review

The High Yield Xray Imager (HYXI) is a new NIF target diagnostic system currently under development. The goal of HYXI is to provide high-fidelity, high temporal resolution x-ray imaging capability on high yield NIF implosions at 10MJ and above. The HYXI instrument design concept is based on the combination of two technologies that have been successfully utilized at the NIF on previous instruments, electron pulse-dilation and hybrid-CMOS sensor imaging. The combination of these two techniques will give HYXI sufficient data quality to ascertain differences in hot spot formation dynamics between high and low yield implosions. This information will highlight the critical hot spot conditions needed for ignition and burn. The HYXI design leverages the successful operation of the PDIXI x-ray imager at the NIF on multi MJ yield shots. A new radiation tolerant CMOS imaging array (HYPERION) is being developed to eliminate the significant background noise which limits the data quality of PDIXI. We successfully placed the contract with Advanced hCMOS Systems (AHS) to develop the HYPERION sensor, which fulfils our criteria to place long lead time item procurements by end of FY24. The HYXI Final Design Review was completed at the end of Q4 FY24 (Sep 24 th and Sep 30 th ). The HYXI project is a multi-year effort with a phased approach to be bring up system functionality over time in parallel with the development and fabrication effort of the HYPERION CMOS imaging array. In Phase 1, time-integrated x-ray images on NIF DT experiments will be collected starting in Q3 FY25. In Phase 2 of the project, time-resolved imaging with HYXI utilizing a spare microchannel plate detector back-end will begin in Q3 FY26. Phase 3 concludes the project with the installation of the HYPERION sensor array and the final performance qualification of the HYXI instrument which is scheduled for Q3 FY27 as discussed in the PDR and MRT report on this project in FY23.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Low-temperature (< 200 °C) degradation of electronic nicotine delivery system liquids generates toxic aldehydes

Electronic cigarette usage has spiked in popularity over recent years. The enhanced prevalence has consequently resulted in new health concerns associated with the use of these devices. Degradation of the liquids used in vaping have been identified as a concern due to the presence of toxic compounds such as aldehydes in the aerosols. Typically, such thermochemical conversions are reported to occur between 300 and 400 °C. Herein, the low-temperature thermal degradation of propylene glycol and glycerol constituents of e-cigarette vapors are explored for the first time by natural abundance 13 C NMR and 1 H NMR, enabling in situ detection of intact molecules from decomposition. The results demonstrate that the degradation of electronic nicotine delivery system (ENDS) liquids is strongly reliant upon the oxygen availability, both in the presence and absence of a material surface. When oxygen is available, propylene glycol and glycerol readily decompose at temperatures between 133 and 175 °C over an extended time period. Among the generated chemical species, formic and acrylic acids are observed which can negatively affect the kidneys and lungs of those who inhale the toxin during ENDS vapor inhalation. Further, the formation of hemi- and formal acetals is noted from both glycerol and propylene glycol, signifying the generation of both formaldehyde and acetaldehyde, highly toxic compounds, which, as a biocide, can lead to numerous health ailments. The results also reveal a retardation in decomposition rate when material surfaces are prevalent with no directly observed unique surface spectator or intermediate species as well as potentially slower conversions in mixtures of the two components. The generation of toxic species in ENDS liquids at low temperatures highlights the dangers of low-temperature ENDS use.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Algal Biomass Production via Open Pond Algae Farm Cultivation: 2020 State of Technology and Future Research

The annual State of Technology (SOT) assessment is an essential activity for platform research conducted under the Bioenergy Technologies Office. It allows for the impact of research progress to be quantified in terms of economic improvements in the overall biofuel production process for a particular biomass processing pathway, whether based on terrestrial or algal biomass feedstocks. As such, initial benchmarks can be established for currently demonstrated performance, and progress can be tracked towards out-year goals to ultimately demonstrate economically viable biofuel technologies. NREL's algae state of technology benchmarking efforts focus both on front-end algal biomass production and separately on back-end conversion to fuels through NREL's "combined algae processing" (CAP) pathway. The production model is based on outdoor long-term cultivation data, enabled by comprehensive algal biomass production trials conducted under Development of Integrated Screening, Cultivar Optimization, and Verification Research (DISCOVR) consortium efforts, driven by data furnished by Arizona State University (ASU) at the Arizona Center for Algae Technology and Innovation (AzCATI) testbed site. The CAP model is based on experimental efforts conducted under NREL research and development projects. This report focuses on front-end algal biomass production, documenting the pertinent algal biomass cultivation parameters that were input to the NREL open pond algae farm model based on the latest DISCOVR cultivation performance data. Relative to prior 2019 benchmarks, the 2020 algae farm SOT achieved further reductions in modeled minimum biomass selling price of approximately $70/ton (roughly 10%), primarily attributable to a 16% demonstrated improvement in annual average cultivation productivity rates.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

2022 Summer Resource Adequacy in the ERCOT Region

This report is a 2022 update to the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) report that examined the potential system performance of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system during the summer of 2021. Anticipated summer reserve margins in ERCOT have risen year-over-year from the 15.7 percent reported in ERCOT’s Final Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) for Summer 2021 to 22.8 percent in the Final SARA for Summer 2022, driven mostly by increases in wind and solar generation. Using data from ERCOT’s 2022 Summer SARA, Capacity, Demand and Reserves (CDR) reports, and historical performance data obtained from ERCOT and Hitachi Energy Velocity Suite, six economic dispatch scenarios using PROMOD were developed to assess the risk to ERCOT of a load shedding event for Summer 2022. The results suggests that ERCOT may be facing a very tight resource adequacy situation, with the potential for a serious shortfall during the summer peak, usually the end of July through mid-August, if demand and generator outage rates significantly exceed peak levels. Under these conditions, ERCOT will need to call on its operating tools, including Energy Emergency Alerts (EEA) and calls to conserve electricity, to maintain reliability and continue serving load. Those measures alone may not be sufficient to avert a shedding of load.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Algal Biomass Production via Open Pond Algae Farm Cultivation: 2022 State of Technology and Future Research

The annual State of Technology (SOT) assessment is an essential activity for platform research conducted under the Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO). It allows for the impact of research progress (both directly achieved in-house at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory [NREL] and furnished by partner organizations) to be quantified in terms of economic improvements in the overall biofuel production process for a particular biomass processing pathway, whether based on terrestrial or algal biomass feedstocks. As such, initial benchmarks can be established for currently demonstrated performance, and progress can be tracked toward out-year goals to ultimately demonstrate economically viable biofuel technologies. NREL's algae SOT benchmarking efforts focus both on front-end algal biomass production and separately on back-end conversion to fuels through NREL's "combined algae processing" (CAP) pathway. The production model is based on outdoor long-term cultivation data, enabled by comprehensive algal biomass production trials conducted under the Development of Integrated Screening, Cultivar Optimization, and Verification Research (DISCOVR) consortium efforts, driven by data furnished by Arizona State University (ASU) at the Arizona Center for Algae Technology and Innovation (AzCATI) testbed site. The CAP model is based on experimental efforts conducted primarily under NREL research and development projects. This report focuses on front-end algal biomass production, documenting the pertinent algal biomass cultivation parameters that were input to the NREL open pond algae farm model. Through partnerships under DISCOVR, collaborators at ASU furnished details on cultivation performance metrics including biomass productivity and harvest densities for recent growth trials done at the AzCATI site. The resulting biomass productivity was calculated at 18.5 g/m2/day (ash-free dry weight [AFDW], annual average) for seasonal cultivation of Picochlorum celeri, Tetraselmis striata LANL1001, and Monoraphidium minutum 26B-AM biomass strains at the ASU site. Picochlorum celeri achieved the best productivity from May to September, with Monoraphidium minutum 26B-AM being used in October, November, March, and April, and Tetraselmis striata employed during winter months (December through February). Beyond the standard SOT models, in Appendix C of this report we also present an industry case study evaluating several scenarios reflective of outdoor cultivation data furnished by an industry collaborator. This case study provides a supplementary datapoint on work being performed elsewhere achieving comparable cultivation productivity with more favorable compositional quality, producing biomass enriched in lipids as may be more optimal for conversion upgrading to fuels and products.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Algal Biomass Conversion to Fuels via Combined Algae Processing (CAP): 2020 State of Technology and Future Research

The annual State of Technology (SOT) assessment is an essential activity for platform research conducted under the Bioenergy Technologies Office. It allows for the impact of research progress to be quantified in terms of economic improvements in the overall biofuel production process for a particular biomass processing pathway, whether based on terrestrial or algal biomass feedstocks. As such, initial benchmarks can be established for currently demonstrated performance, and progress can be tracked towards out-year goals to ultimately demonstrate economically viable biofuel technologies. NREL's algae state of technology benchmarking efforts focus both on front-end algal biomass production and separately on back-end conversion to fuels through NREL's "combined algae processing" (CAP) pathway. The production model is based on outdoor long-term cultivation data, enabled by comprehensive algal biomass production trials conducted under the Development of Integrated Screening, Cultivar Optimization, and Verification Research consortium (DISCOVR) efforts, driven by data furnished by Arizona State University (ASU) at the Arizona Center for Algae Technology and Innovation (AzCATI) testbed site. The CAP model is based on experimental efforts conducted under NREL research and development projects. This report focuses on back-end conversion of algal biomass through the CAP pathway, highlighting the 2020 updates to minimum fuel selling price (MFSP). Notably, this analysis marks the first time that polyurethane (PU) is included as a value-added coproduct in the SOT case. Relative to prior 2019 benchmarks, the 2020 CAP SOT achieved further MFSP reductions of over $4/gallon gasoline equivalent, reflective of (a) the inclusion of PU co-production, (b) reduced SOT biomass production costs, and (c) higher pretreatment sugar yield data.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Algal Biomass Conversion to Fuels via Combined Algae Processing (CAP) (2021 State of Technology and Future Research)

The annual State of Technology (SOT) assessment is an essential activity for platform research conducted under the Bioenergy Technologies Office. It allows for the impact of research progress to be quantified in terms of economic improvements in the overall biofuel production process for a particular biomass processing pathway, whether based on terrestrial or algal biomass feedstocks. As such, initial benchmarks can be established for currently demonstrated performance, and progress can be tracked towards out-year goals to ultimately demonstrate economically viable biofuel technologies. NREL's algae state of technology benchmarking efforts focus both on front-end algal biomass production and separately on back-end conversion to fuels through NREL's "combined algae processing" (CAP) pathway. The production model is based on outdoor long-term cultivation data, enabled by comprehensive algal biomass production trials conducted under the Development of Integrated Screening, Cultivar Optimization, and Verification Research consortium (DISCOVR) efforts, driven by data furnished by Arizona State University (ASU) at the Arizona Center for Algae Technology and Innovation (AzCATI) testbed site. The CAP model is based on experimental efforts conducted under NREL research and development projects. This report focuses on back-end conversion of algal biomass through the CAP pathway, highlighting the 2021 updates to minimum fuel selling price (MFSP). This update maintains an important recent inclusion of polyurethane (PU) previously incorporated in the 2020 SOT as a value-added coproduct. Relative to the 2020 SOT case, this indicates a minimal increase of $0.10-$0.14/GGE (roughly 2%) for both the acids and BDO pathways, attributed to minimal increases in upstream algal biomass costs from slightly lower demonstrated cultivation productivities in the 2021 SOT.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Queued Up: 2025 Edition – Characteristics of Power Plants Seeking Transmission Interconnection As of the End of 2024 [Slides]

Electric transmission system operators (ISOs, RTOs, or utilities) require proposed power plants seeking to connect to the transmission grid to undergo a series of impact studies before they can be built. This process establishes what new transmission equipment or upgrades may be needed before a project can connect to the system and assigns the costs of that equipment. The lists of projects in this process are known as “interconnection queues”. In collaboration with interconnection.fyi, Berkeley Lab compiled, aggregated, and cleaned interconnection queue data from >50 transmission grid operators (7 ISO/RTOs and 49 non-ISO balancing areas), which collectively represent ~97% of currently installed U.S. electric generating capacity. The dataset includes requests submitted to queues through the end of 2024, and only includes requests seeking to connect to the transmission grid (not distribution-connected or behind-the-meter projects). The files below include both a PDF report and an Excel data file. The PDF report analyzes interconnection data and metrics through the end of 2024. The Excel data file includes (a) the full project-level interconnection queue dataset through 2024, (b) a codebook (data dictionary) describing each data field, and (c) 35 additional tabs featuring tables summarizing a range of interconnection metrics. Key highlights from the Queued Up: 2025 Edition (featuring data through 2024) include: • As of the end of 2024, there were ~10,300 projects actively seeking grid interconnection in the U.S., representing 1,400 GW of generation and approximately 890 GW of storage. • Historic withdrawal rates alongside relatively fewer new requests resulted in a 12% decrease in total active queue volume compared to the prior year. • Active natural gas capacity (136 GW, +72% year-over-year) increased in 2024, while solar (956 GW, -12%), storage (890 GW, -13%), and wind (271 GW, -26%) capacity decreased. • 408 GW of capacity already has a draft or executed interconnection agreement (IA) but has not yet reached commercial operations. • The time projects spend in queues before reaching COD is increasing. For the regions with available data, the median duration from IR to COD has doubled from <2 years for projects built in 2000-2007 to over 4 years for those built in 2018-2024. • Ultimately, most of this proposed capacity will not be built. Only 13% of capacity that submitted interconnection requests from 2000-2019 had reached commercial operations by the end of 2024; 77% of that capacity had been withdrawn and 10% was still active. • FERC Order 2023 and various other reforms are being implemented. These are important measures to reduce interconnection bottlenecks and enhance grid system reliability, but it is too early to measure and assess their full impact. • New additions for the 2025 edition include: (a) additional detail on data processing and gaps; (b) updates on interconnection reforms; (c) new analysis on interconnection agreements, and more.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Overview of research completed with funding from the SciDAC CSPM project (Final Technical Report)

The Center for the Study of Plasma Microturbulence was a SciDAC project managed by the Office of Fusion Energy Sciences in the US Department of Energy. Funding for the University of Maryland was initially modest (40k/year) for the first two years. The remaining four years were funded at 201k/year, with a single $50k supplemental in 2015, and a no-cost extension that ran through March, 2018. The CSPM involved several institutions whose efforts are documented separately. At UMD, the CSPM supported two graduate students (Kanekar and Wilkie), two post-doctoral fellows (Landreman and TenBarge), and summer salary for the UMD PI (Dorland). The supplemental in 2015 provided additional salary for a sabbatical by Dorland in 2015/16. Landreman and TenBarge both transitioned to separately funded research staff positions at Maryland at the ends of their post-doctoral, CSPM-supported, positions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Major Drivers of Long-Term Distribution Transformer Demand

Distribution transformers, used to step-down medium voltage to service-voltage level for end-use electrical consumption, are currently experiencing major shortages. Utilities are experiencing extended lead times for transformers of up to 2 years (a 4x increase on lead times pre-2022) and prices have gone up by as much as 5-6 times in the past 2 years. Current shortages have been attributed to pent-up post-pandemic demand, workforce shortages and low retention rates, component supply chain challenges, and materials shortages (grain-oriented electrical steel, aluminum, and copper). The supply of this equipment is critical for the reliability and growth of the power system, and in meeting administration climate goals in terms of electrification of demand and the growth of renewable energy. This report details some of the initial analysis conducted by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Electricity and Office of Policy, in assessing the long-term demand trends for distribution transformers. Expected increased demand is due to a confluence of not only electrification and renewable energy growth, but also in the context of aging electric infrastructure, increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events, and utility-driven investments in reliability and resiliency of the electricity distribution system.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗