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At least 217 records · Page 12

Atmospheric electrical modeling in support of the NASA F106 Storm Hazards Project

With the use of composite (non-metallic) and microelectronics becoming more prevalent in the construction of both military and commercial aircraft, the control systems have become more susceptible to damage or failure from electromagnetic transients. One source of such transients is the lightning discharge. In order to study the effects of the lightning discharge on the vital components of an aircraft, NASA Langley Research Center has undertaken a Storm Hazards Program in which a specially instrumented F106B jet aircraft is flown into active thunderstorms with the intention of being struck by lightning. One of the specific purposes of the program is to quantify the environmental conditions which are conductive to aircraft lightning strikes.

Helsdon, J. H.↗

Development, Implementation, and Pilot Evaluation of a Model-Driven Envelope Protection System to Mitigate the Hazard of In-Flight Ice Contamination on a Twin-Engine Commuter Aircraft

Fatal loss-of-control accidents have been directly related to in-flight airframe icing. The prototype system presented in this report directly addresses the need for real-time onboard envelope protection in icing conditions. The combination of prior information and real-time aerodynamic parameter estimations are shown to provide sufficient information for determining safe limits of the flight envelope during inflight icing encounters. The Icing Contamination Envelope Protection (ICEPro) system was designed and implemented to identify degradations in airplane performance and flying qualities resulting from ice contamination and provide safe flight-envelope cues to the pilot. The utility of the ICEPro system for mitigating a potentially hazardous icing condition was evaluated by 29 pilots using the NASA Ice Contamination Effects Flight Training Device. Results showed that real time assessment cues were effective in reducing the number of potentially hazardous upset events and in lessening exposure to loss of control following an incipient upset condition. Pilot workload with the added ICEPro displays was not measurably affected, but pilot opinion surveys showed that real time cueing greatly improved their awareness of a hazardous aircraft state. The performance of ICEPro system was further evaluated by various levels of sensor noise and atmospheric turbulence.

simulation training↗

Experimental Validation of a Forward Looking Interferometer for Detection of Clear Air Turbulence due to Mountain Waves

The Forward-Looking Interferometer (FLI) is an airborne sensor concept for detection and estimation of potential atmospheric hazards to aircraft. The FLI concept is based on high-resolution Infrared Fourier Transform Spectrometry technologies that have been developed for satellite remote sensing. The FLI is being evaluated for its potential to address multiple hazards, during all phases of flight, including clear air turbulence, volcanic ash, wake vortices, low slant range visibility, dry wind shear, and icing. In addition, the FLI is being evaluated for its potential to detect hazardous runway conditions during landing, such as wet or icy asphalt or concrete. The validation of model-based instrument and hazard simulation results is accomplished by comparing predicted performance against empirical data. In the mountain lee wave data collected in the previous FLI project, the data showed a damped, periodic mountain wave structure. The wave data itself will be of use in forecast and nowcast turbulence products such as the Graphical Turbulence Guidance and Graphical Turbulence Guidance Nowcast products. Determining how turbulence hazard estimates can be derived from FLI measurements will require further investigation.

Schaffner, Philip R.↗

Stereo Vision Based Terrain Mapping for Off-Road Autonomous Navigation

Successful off-road autonomous navigation by an unmanned ground vehicle (UGV) requires reliable perception and representation of natural terrain. While perception algorithms are used to detect driving hazards, terrain mapping algorithms are used to represent the detected hazards in a world model a UGV can use to plan safe paths. There are two primary ways to detect driving hazards with perception sensors mounted to a UGV: binary obstacle detection and traversability cost analysis. Binary obstacle detectors label terrain as either traversable or non-traversable, whereas, traversability cost analysis assigns a cost to driving over a discrete patch of terrain. In uncluttered environments where the non-obstacle terrain is equally traversable, binary obstacle detection is sufficient. However, in cluttered environments, some form of traversability cost analysis is necessary. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) has explored both approaches using stereo vision systems. A set of binary detectors has been implemented that detect positive obstacles, negative obstacles, tree trunks, tree lines, excessive slope, low overhangs, and water bodies. A compact terrain map is built from each frame of stereo images. The mapping algorithm labels cells that contain obstacles as no-go regions, and encodes terrain elevation, terrain classification, terrain roughness, traversability cost, and a confidence value. The single frame maps are merged into a world map where temporal filtering is applied. In previous papers, we have described our perception algorithms that perform binary obstacle detection. In this paper, we summarize the terrain mapping capabilities that JPL has implemented during several UGV programs over the last decade and discuss some challenges to building terrain maps with stereo range data.

passive perception↗

Low-speed wind-tunnel investigation of forward-located spoilers and trailing splines as trailing-vortex hazard-alleviation devices on an aspect-ratio-8 wing model

An investigation was made in the Langley V/STOL tunnel in order to determine, by the trailing-wing sensor technique, the effectiveness of either a forward-mounted spoiler or a tip-mounted spline as trailing-vortex attenuation devices on an unswept aspect-ratio-8 wing model. The trailing-wing rolling-moment data taken in the tunnel diffuser section show good agreement with the data taken in the tunnel test section. This agreement indicates that reasonable results may be obtained in the Langley V/STOL tunnel in experimental investigations of the trailing-vortex hazard at relatively great distances behind aircraft models.

Croom, D. R.↗

Uncovering Hazards Using a Multi-Objective Optimization to Explore the Faulty State-Space

Considering resilience when designing complex engineered systems is crucial to ensure the system is safe under unexpected hazardous scenarios. Traditional risk-based approaches, such as Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) are useful for designing the system to mitigate hazardous scenarios that can be identified by the designer, but often require experience or prior knowledge of system failures to generate. More recently, researchers have developed simulation tools that enable the designer to model large sets of hazardous scenarios (driven by both internal faults and external factors) through simulation. While these tools enable a wider scope of fault modes to be evaluated (e.g., by injecting combined set of fault modes or injecting modes at different times), the resulting assessments (like FMEA) still require knowledge of the specific modes to be evaluated. However, failure to analyze a wide variety of fault scenarios can lead to an incomplete picture of the system resilience, especially to "surprise events'' which may be difficult for the designer to identify and predict beforehand. To overcome this challenge, previous work developed a fault sampling approach for resilience simulations which would procedurally-generate a wide variety of potential faults by systematically perturbing the health states of the system. While the resulting fault modes generated covered a much larger space hazards than would be otherwise considered (and identified many unique failure trajectories which would not have otherwise been identified), it also significantly increased the computational cost of the analysis and resulted in the simulation and analysis of a large set of essentially duplicate scenarios. Additionally, as the number of dimensions in the faulty state-space increases, the full elaboration of possible modes becomes computationally infeasible, justifying the use of a more targeted search. To resolve this limitation, this work proposes the use of a multiobjective optimization algorithm to search the health state space for potential fault modes that are both (1) hazardous and (2) unique. To solve this type of problem, this work proposes the use of a cooperative co-evolutionary algorithm. To demonstrate this approach, it will be applied to a model of an autonomous rover which uses line markings to navigate, focusing on potential hazards in the drive system which could cause the rover to crash. To determine the merit of the approach, it will further be compared with the previously-presented range elaboration approach and a random mode generation approach on the basis of computational efficiency and found modes.

Resilience↗

Debris hazard for the Earth Observing System

The scientific mission of the Earth Observing System (EOS) is modeled to analyze the potential hazard of space debris and its impact on the effectiveness of the program. Specific attention is given to the hazard posed by untrackable debris and the velocities and impact rates of such debris. The NASA Debris Flux Model (DFM) is utilized, and the results are compared to those of the Frag model which predicts the background environment from known parameters and the Screen model for estimating collision probabilities. The probability of damaging impacts is shown to be significant and to increase over time; an EOS spacecraft has a 10 percent chance of being struck by a 1-cm object traveling at 14 km/s. The present analyses demonstrate the need to design the EOS spacecraft for a LEO environment in which collisions with debris are very likely.

Madler, Ronald A.↗

Environmentally induced discharges on satellites

The problem of assessing hazards to geosynchronous satellite systems from geomagnetic substorm encounters is investigated. The available space flight data, coupled with analytical modeling studies, show that only relatively low differential charging is possible from environmental encounters. Using an analytical study of a discharge event on SCATHA, a discharge process is postulated where a small amount of charge is lost to space. These characteristics could then be used as inputs to a coupling model to determine the hazard to a spacecraft. The procedure is applied to a three axis stabilized satellite design.

Stevens, N. J.↗

Effect of Thrustor Arcing on Ion Rocket System Design

Arcing between the electrodes of an ion rocket thrustor is investigated for the effect it will have on the overall design of ion rocket systems. The effect of generator, transformer, and inserted impedances on system stability and efficiency, and on operating lifetime of thrustor components are considered. Rate of arcing, preferential arc paths, speed of arc interruption, and response of thrustors to voltage transients are also discussed. The study indicates that arcing is a system hazard and that arcing rates are of prime importance in the design and development of thrustors, thrustor arrays, and system components. Two system models for reducing the hazard are proposed, based on principles developed herein, published data, and experience available from operation of nine-module electron-bombardment thrustor array. Experimental investigation of these models is presently underway.

THRUSTOR↗

Lithium-thionyl chloride battery safety

Primary lithium cells which use LiAlCl4/SOCl2 electrolyte exhibit high energy density and long life. Currently these cells pose a safety problem since they have been found to vent or explode. This paper summarizes experiments to resolve the safety problem of Li-SOCl2 cells by thermal modeling and identification of possibly hazardous intermediates formed during discharge of these cells. A thermal model and mechanism for the reduction of SOCl2 are presented, as well as a discussion of their application to Li-SOCl2 cell safety.

Carter, B.↗

From Ensemble Climate to Ensemble Impacts

Many climate-risk tools rely on ensemble mean projections or endpoint climate snapshots to characterize future hazards. Although convenient for communication, these representations remove the statistical, temporal, and physical information that real infrastructure systems respond to. Infrastructure degradation and failure arise from extremes, sequences, cumulative stress, compound hazards, and nonlinear fragility relationships, none of which survive ensemble averaging or temporal compression. Power-system failure statistics and cascading failure models further show that infrastructure risk is dominated by tail events and path-dependent dynamics rather than by mean conditions. This paper demonstrates why ensemble mean or endpoint-only climate representations are mathematically and physically inconsistent with engineering-grade risk analysis. We outline a model-resolved, time-series-based workflow that preserves extremes, variability, and sequencing by propagating each climate-model realization independently through hazard formation, exposure, fragility, and cascading failure mechanisms. Taking the ensemble of impacts—rather than the ensemble of climate—provides a defensible, physically coherent foundation for infrastructure resilience planning, regulatory compliance, and long-term investment decisions.

54 - ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES/GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ↗

Investigating the potential of a global precipitation forecast to inform landslide prediction

Extreme rainfall events within landslide-prone areas can be catastrophic, resulting in loss of property, infrastructure, and life. A global Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) model provides routine near-real time estimates of landslide hazard using Integrated Multi-Satellite Precipitation Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Mission (IMERG). However, it does not provide information on potential landslide hazard in the future. Forecasting potential landslide events at a global scale presents an area of open research. This study compares a global precipitation forecast provided by NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) with near-real time satellite precipitation estimates. The Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor gauge corrected (MRMS-GC) reference is used to assess the performance of both satellite and model-based precipitation products over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The forecast lead time of 24hrs is considered, with a focus on extreme precipitation events. The performance of IMERG and GEOS-Forecast products is assessed in terms of the probability of detection, success ratio, critical success index and hit bias as well as continuous statistics. The results show that seasonality influences the performance of both satellite and model-based precipitation products. Comparison of IMERG and GEOS-Forecast globally as well as in several event case studies (Colombia, southeast Asia, and Tajikistan) reveals that GEOS-Forecast detects extreme rainfall more frequently relative to IMERG for these specific analyses. For recent landslide points across the globe, the 24hr accumulated precipitation forecast >100 mm corresponds well with near-real time daily accumulated IMERG precipitation estimates. GEOS-Forecast and IMERG precipitation match more closely for tropical cyclones than for other types of storms. The main intention of this study is to assess the viability of using a global forecast for landslide predictions and understand the extent of the variability between these products to inform where we would expect the landslide modeling results to most prominently diverge. Results of this study will be used to inform how forecasted precipitation estimates can be incorporated into the LHASA model to provide the first global predictive view of landslide hazards.

S. Khan↗

Investigating the Potential of A Global Precipitation Forecast to Inform Landslide Prediction

Extreme rainfall events within landslide-prone areas can be catastrophic, resulting in loss of property, infra-structure, and life. A global Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) model provides routine near-real time estimates of landslide hazard using Integrated Multi-Satellite Precipitation Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Mission (IMERG). However, it does not provide information on potential landslide hazard in the future. Forecasting potential landslide events at a global scale presents an area of open research. This study compares a global precipitation forecast provided by NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) with near-real time satellite precipitation estimates. The Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor gauge corrected (MRMS-GC) reference is used to assess the performance of both satellite and model-based precipitation products over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The forecast lead time of 24hrs is considered, with a focus on extreme precipitation events. The performance of IMERG and GEOS-Forecast products is assessed in terms of the probability of detection, success ratio, critical success index and hit bias as well as continuous statistics. The results show that seasonality influences the performance of both satellite and model-based precipitation products. Comparison of IMERG and GEOS-Forecast globally as well as in several event case studies (Colombia, southeast Asia, and Tajikistan) reveals that GEOS-Forecast detects extreme rainfall more frequently relative to IMERG for these specific analyses. For recent landslide points across the globe, the 24hr accumulated precipitation forecast >100 mm corresponds well with near-real time daily accumulated IMERG precipitation estimates. GEOS-Forecast and IMERG precipitation match more closely for tropical cyclones than for other types of storms. The main intention of this study is to assess the viability of using a global forecast for landslide predictions and understand the extent of the variability between these products to inform where we would expect the landslide modeling results to most prominently diverge. Results of this study will be used to inform how forecasted precipitation estimates can be incorporated into the LHASA model to provide the first global predictive view of landslide hazards.

S. Khan↗

Mortality among workers at the Rocky Flats Plant, 1951–2017

The Rocky Flats (RFs) Plant operated from 1951–1989 as part of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear complex. Its primary mission was weapons component fabrication, whereby workers were potentially exposed to radioactive and non-radioactive hazards. RF worker mortality was compared to the general population, and dose-response relationships between mortality and radiation organ doses were examined. RF workers first employed between 1951 and 1979 for ⩾30 d were identified (n = 9397). Vital status was determined using national and state death records up to 2017. Organ doses from external photons and neutrons irritation and internalised plutonium (Pu), americium (Am), and uranium (U) were modelled as cumulative lagged total doses per year. Beryllium exposure was evaluated as an effect modifier using data from the DOE Nationwide Beryllium Medical Program. Statistical analyses included standardised mortality ratios (SMRs), Cox proportional hazard models, and excess relative risk (ERR) models. Approximately 53.2% of workers were deceased by the end of the study. Nearly 90% were monitored for radiation exposure, with a mean weighted absorbed dose of 59.0 mGy for the lungs. Nearly 45% of workers had intakes of alpha-particle emitting radionuclides, and 46.7% were monitored for neutrons. Leading causes of death included ischemic heart disease (n = 999) and lung cancer (n = 361). The highest SMRs were observed for berylliosis (SMR: 176.9; 95% CI: 76.2, 348.7; n < 10) and asbestosis (SMR: 4.65; 95% CI: 2.23, 8.55; n = 10). Dose-response analyses showed no statistical increase in risk from low-dose radiation including lung cancer (ERR per 100 mGy: −0.02; 95% CI: −0.11, 0.08; n = 361) and Parkinson’s disease (ERR per 100 mGy: 0.13; 95% CI: −0.26, 0.31; n = 57). Approximately 45% of workers were monitored for beryllium, with a weak non-significant indication of effect modification for lung cancer risk. The RF cohort showed no evidence of a statistically significant increase in mortality from occupational radiation exposure. However, this study was limited by low statistical power, which inhibits the ability to detect effects. Future pooling of Million Person Study (MPS) cohorts will provide further insights, particularly regarding Pu as a carcinogen.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Machine Learning for the Prediction of Local Asteroid Damages

Risk assessment studies of local asteroid hazards traditionally simulate the physics of meteors with engineering models tailored to analyze tens-of-millions of scenarios. However, these simplified approaches still need to solve time-dependent ODEs to model the entry process and the resulting ground damage. With a computational cost of O(0.01 CPU.s) per scenario, simulating these large numbers of potential entry conditions in risk assessment studies can take several days on local computers. To improve computational efficiency, we propose in this paper an orthogonal approach based on machine learning models to predict the size of damaged areas given a list of entry parameters. We train 5 machine learning methods and compare the predictions to the outputs of the PAIR model, first only with primitive entry condition variables, and then with more advanced features. We find that complex models like neural networks are well-suited to estimate blast hazards, while simpler linear models can accurately assess thermal damage. For both types of hazards, the radii of damaged areas can be predicted with around 10% average errors and a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.99. The CPU time is decreased by a factor O(10 3 ) compared to the PAIR model, which enables the simulation of millions of scenarios in minutes, on a local computer. We then use the same machine learning approaches for a classification task where the models are trained to predict if an asteroid will produce a given level of damage. Results show that complex models like the gradient boosting classifier and the neural network can perform this task with 98% accuracy. Beyond surrogate models, we finally incorporate the machine learning algorithms to the state-of-the-art Shapley sensitivity analysis and present a ranking of the entry parameters based on their contributions to ground damages.

SMD↗

Dust Hazard Management in the Outer Solar System

Most robotic missions to the outer solar system must grapple with the hazards posed by the dusty rings of the gas giants. Early assessments of these hazards led simply to ring avoidance due to insufficient data and high uncertainties on the dust population present in such rings. Recent approaches, principal among them the Cassini dust hazard management strategy, provide useful results from detailed modeling of spacecraft vulnerabilities and dust hazard regions, which along with the range of mission trajectories are used to to assess the risks posed by each passage through a zone of potential hazard. This paper shows the general approach used to implement the analysis for Cassini, with recommendations for future outer planet missions.

mission hazards↗

Bayesian characterization of uncertainties surrounding fluvial flood hazard estimates

Fluvial floods drive severe risk to riverine communities. There is strong evidence of increasing flood hazards in many regions around the world. The choice of methods and assumptions used in flood hazard estimates can impact the design of risk management strategies. In this study, we characterize the expected flood hazards conditioned on the uncertain model structures, model parameters, and prior distributions of the parameters. We construct a Bayesian framework for river stage return level estimation using a nonstationary statistical model that relies exclusively on the Indian Ocean Dipole Index. We show that ignoring uncertainties can lead to biased estimation of expected flood hazards. We find that the considered model parametric uncertainty is more influential than model structures and model priors. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating uncertainty in extreme flood stage estimates, and are of practical use for informing water infrastructure designs in a changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Positive Voltage Hazard to EMU Crewman from Currents through Plasma

This paper describes the model of the EMU with a human body in the circuit that has been used by NASA to evaluate the low positive voltage hazard. The model utilizes the electron collection characterization from on orbit Langmuir probe data as representative of electron collection to a positive charged surface with a wide range of on orbit plasma temperature and density conditions. The data has been unified according to non-linear theoretical temperature and density variation of the electron saturated probe current collection theory and used as a model for the electron collection at EMU surfaces. Vulnerable paths through the EMU connecting through the crewman s body have been identified along with electrical impedance of the exposed body parts. The body impedance information is merged with the electron collection characteristics in circuit simulation software (SPICE). The assessment shows that currents can be on the order of 20 mA for a 15 V exposure and of order 4 mA at 3V. These currents formally violate NASA protocol for electric current exposures however the human factors associated with subjective consequences of noxious stimuli from low voltage exposure during the stressful conditions of EVA are an area of active inquiry.

Koontz, Steven L.↗