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DOE OSTI2024

High-Temperature Fe-Based Fischer–Tropsch Synthesis: Experimentally Validated Kinetic Models Implemented at Pellet and Reactor Scales

Pellet- and reactor-scale models for Fischer–Tropsch synthesis (FTS) with a Fe–K/silica catalyst were developed to investigate the sensitivity of the hydrocarbon products and carbon dioxide selectivity to process conditions and feed composition at high temperature (350–400 °C), moderate pressure (1–10 bar), and a range of H 2 /CO ratios (3–1). The major objective of this paper is to develop, validate, and evaluate a high-temperature FTS model that is then used to assess the feasibility of process integration with syngas production. Since there is limited kinetic data available, in literature at these conditions, bench-scale reactor tests were conducted to obtain operational data for parameter fitting of kinetic expressions used in the model. This resulting kinetic model demonstrated agreement with the experimental data with an R 2 of 0.97 to the testing data set and, thus, was feasible to apply at pellet and reactor scales. Here, multiple pellet sizes were modeled to detail the role of transport limitations as the sphere’s diameter approached and exceeded 1 mm. Application of the reactor model indicated that hydrocarbon selectivity depended strongly on temperature, whereas the ratio of olefin to paraffin products decreased with increasing temperature, pressure, and H 2 /CO ratio. Product selectivity was not sensitive to the conversion of carbon monoxide. Furthermore, the roles of the pressure and H 2 /CO ratio were closely coupled. At a H 2 /CO ratio of 3, only slight variations in selectivity occurred over a pressure range of 1–20 bar, whereas at a ratio of 1, selectivity could vary by as much as 30% over the same pressure range. At pressures below 5 bar and temperatures above 350 °C, minimal selectivity to heavy hydrocarbons (C 12+ ) is obtained, and selectivity to midrange products (C 5–11 ) rapidly declined as pressure dropped below 5 bar, which indicated that an operational pressure of at least 5 bar is needed to achieve reasonable yields in this temperature range. These results, while tentative, provide guidelines for further experimentation and evaluation of integrated FTS processes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hydropower Black Start: A Guidebook for Retrofitting Grid Dependent Hydropower

Not all United States (US) hydropower plants were designed to provide black start, but they are increasingly needed to uphold resilience in the evolving electric grid. This guidance is designed to help understand the minimal retrofits required for grid dependent hydropower (GDH) plants behind the point of interconnection (POI). For distribution connected hydropower plants or those with dedicated cranking paths, such upgrades can be sufficient for the plant to provide black start. For others, more coordination with the transmission system operator will be needed. This guidebook answers a number of questions relevant to retrofitting hydropower plants with black start capabilities. For example, the guidebook answers: • How flexible do the wicket gate controls need to be? • Who needs to do hydro governor model validation, why, and how? • How robust and flexible do the excitation and AVR controls need to be? • What protection settings need to be adjusted? • What relay(s) will need to be bypassed or overridden and at what risk? • What is the electrical energy demand of the station load or auxiliary power systems? • What should the strategy to energize transformer(s) along cranking path to address inrush currents be? • How should the critical load restoration be sequenced? In addition to outlining the specifications that hydropower plants need to meet for each component to be able to perform black start, this guidebook provides a set of case studies for specific upgrades needed at actual plants. Between the case studies of plants that have already performed black start retrofits and the examples of how this guidebook can be applied to scope future retrofits, five key themes have been identified for retrofit needs. 1. Protection needs “black start” mode: hydropower plants that are not designed with black start capabilities will have protections that prevent them from interconnecting to a “dead bus.” These protections will need to be overridden in every retrofit case and a separate black start mode should be established so that operators can safely switch between black start and grid connected modes, minimizing the risk to the plant. 2. Wicket gates need modern controls: digital governors accelerate the parameter tuning process and gate position sensors improve controllability, so plants with mechanical governors should be upgraded. Furthermore, a black start and islanding mode should be established for controls to maximize plant performance. 3. Robust excitation support: the DC system or excitation generator needs to be reliable enough to form and sustain the rotor electromagnetic field. These systems are typically undersized in plants that were not designed for black start, so they will need to be upgraded. 4. Turbine-governor model validation and operator training: validation of a standard hydro governor model is needed to characterize the dynamic response (i.e., inertial and primary frequency response) of the GDH. This is required for control development and old hydropower plants often have outdated or incorrect models. Operator training is also typically required to ensure the hardware retrofits are utilized correctly during the black start process. 5. Transformer and cranking path energization: any upgradation and control adjustment in front of the POI will depend upon the existing interconnection. Coordination with the transmission or distribution operator may be required.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Validation Assessment of Turbulent Reacting Flow Model Using The Area-Validation Metric on Medium-Scale Methanol Pool Fire Results

Accident analysis and ensuring power plant safety are pivotal in the nuclear energy sector. Significant strides have been achieved over the past few decades regarding fire protection and safety, primarily centered on design and regulatory compliance. Yet, after the Fukushima accident a decade ago, the imperative to enhance measures against fire, internal flooding, and power loss has intensified. Hence, a comprehensive, multilayered protection strategy against severe accidents is needed. Consequently, gaining a deeper insight into pool fires and their behavior through extensive validated data can greatly aid in improving these measures using advanced validation techniques. A model validation study was performed at Sandia National Laboratories in which a 30-cm diameter methanol pool fire was modeled using the SIERRA/Fuego turbulent reacting flow code. This validation study used a standard validation experiment to compare model results against, and conclusions have been published. The fire was modeled with a Large Eddy Simulation (LES) turbulence model with subgrid turbulent kinetic energy closure. Combustion was modeled using a strained laminar flamelet library approach. Radiative heat transfer was accounted for with a model utilizing the gray-gas approximation. In the present study, additional validation analysis is performed using the area validation metric (AVM). These activities are done on multiple datasets involving different variables and temporal/spatial ranges and intervals. In conclusion, the results provide insight into the use of the area validation metric on such temporally varying datasets and the importance of physics-aware use of the metric for proper analysis.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2025

Oklo Sponsored Testing using PELICAN: System, Subchannel, and High-Fidelity Software Validation (Final CRADA Report)

Argonne National Laboratory (the Contractor), located in Lemont IL, and Oklo, Inc., (the Participant), headquartered in Santa Clara, CA, propose to enter into a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) to perform a gap analysis of thermal hydraulic data, perform prototypical fuel assembly pressure drop and cavitation model validation, generate the experimental data as well as the corresponding uncertainties for this matrix and, finally, develop the validation models with the Argonne system level code SAS4A/SASSYS-1, the Argonne subchannel analysis code DASSH, the Argonne high fidelity code Nek5000, and/or the Idaho National Laboratory code Pronghorn Subchannel. The work outlined below will significantly improve the experimental and validation database currently available for liquid metal fast reactors, thus making it a viable part of a comprehensive reactor design and licensing suite to be used by the participant.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Computational modeling and validation of a modified Marple cascade impactor

Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is investigating respirable aerosol fractions from failed high-burnup (HBU) commercial spent nuclear fuel (CSNF) rods (Montgomery et al., 2022). The work aims to characterize the source term of radioactive aerosols that could result from mechanical failure and handling of failed fuel rods during storage and/or transportation. The experiment involves capturing and characterizing aerosols from a four-point bending experiment of fueled rod segments at ORNL’s Irradiated Fuels Examination Laboratory (IFEL). For this, a Marple cascade impactor (Series 290) with the ability to collect particles up to aerodynamic equivalent diameters of ~15 μm was tested for feasibility. The commercially available Marple cascade impactor design was modified for the experiment, where the cascade inlet was replaced with a 3D printed inlet nozzle. Collection efficiency curves were then generated with the modified impactor, and the cascade’s performance was tested using ISO dust capture experiments followed by SEM analysis of the collection and computational modeling. The current work highlights the performance testing and experimental validation of this modified Marple Impactor for spent nuclear fuel aerosol collection.

Kumar, Vineet↗

DOE OSTI2023

Model Based Validation of Intelligent Powertrain Strategies for Connected and Automated Vehicles

Systems incorporating Vehicle to Everything (V2X) and conventional cellular based communication in vehicles can significantly help improve energy consumption via a combination of intelligent powertrain control strategies, smarter routing algorithms and driving in such a way as to minimize fuel economy and the emission of carbon dioxide, known as "eco-driving." In projects led by the Southwest Research Institute (SwRI), large-scale traffic simulations are created to model real-world scenarios with dynamic behavior that is reactive to imposed changes. Coupled with high fidelity powertrain models, the closed loop framework enables research and development of such Connected and Automated Vehicle (CAV) enabled technologies at scale. This paper will discuss a traffic system simulation environment that was built based on the High Street urban corridor in Columbus, Ohio. Eco-driving strategies were tested at scale on a variety of powertrain platforms – internal combustion engines, hybrid electric and fully electric vehicles. Furthermore, the paper will focus on hybrid electric powertrain modeling along with details on how the powertrain model was leveraged to develop a sophisticated clustering scheme to help down-select speed traces from large scale simulation studies for validation on vehicle dynamometer. Nominal energy consumption improvement around 12% was observed with good match between simulation studies and vehicle testing.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Highlighting the Impact of Yaw Control by Parsing Atmospheric Conditions Based on Total Variation: Preprint

Identification of atmospheric conditions within a multivariate atmospheric dataset is a necessary step in the validation of wind plant control strategies. Most often, operating conditions are characterized in terms of aggregated observations and assume that the atmosphere is 'quasi-steady'. Aggregation of observations without regard to covariance between time series discounts the dynamical nature of the atmosphere and is not sufficiently representative of wind plant operating conditions. Identification and characterization of continuous time periods with atmospheric conditions that have a high value for analysis or simulation sets the stage for more advanced model validation and the development of real-time control and operation strategies. Controlling observational data for statistical stationarity highlights significant enhancements to the power production of waked turbines under wake steering wind plant control. Considering the combined energy ratio of the turbine to which yaw offsets are prescribed as well as the waked turbine show only moderate improvements when filtering for total validation. The same quality control that highlights wake steering also serves to underpin the off-nominal operation of the controlled turbine.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

A framework for strategic discovery of credible neural network surrogate models under uncertainty

The widespread integration of deep neural networks in developing data-driven surrogate models for high-fidelity simulations of complex physical systems highlights the critical necessity for robust uncertainty quantification techniques and credibility assessment methodologies, ensuring the reliable deployment of surrogate models in consequential decision-making. Here, this study presents the Occam Plausibility Algorithm for surrogate models (OPAL-surrogate), providing a systematic framework to uncover predictive neural network-based surrogate models within the large space of potential models, including various neural network classes and choices of architecture and hyperparameters. The framework is grounded in hierarchical Bayesian inferences and employs model validation tests to evaluate the credibility and prediction reliability of the surrogate models under uncertainty. Leveraging these principles, OPAL-surrogate introduces a systematic and efficient strategy for balancing the trade-off between model complexity, accuracy, and prediction uncertainty. The effectiveness of OPAL-surrogate is demonstrated through two modeling problems, including the deformation of porous materials for building insulation and turbulent combustion flow for ablation of solid fuels within hybrid rocket motors.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

DEM Modeling and Validation of Pebble Bed Packing Using Chrono::GPU

Accurate prediction of pebble packing structure is important for pebble bed reactors because the spatial distribution of void fraction directly affects coolant flow, pressure drop, heat transfer, and neutronic behavior. However, experimentally validated DEM studies that directly evaluate local void-fraction structure in reactor-relevant pebble beds remain limited. In this work, the pebble bed experiment conducted at Missouri University of Science and Technology is simulated using the graphics processing unit (GPU)-based discrete element method (DEM) code Chrono::GPU. The study focuses on evaluating the ability of Chrono::GPU to reproduce the packing arrangement and void-fraction distribution of a randomly packed spherical pebble bed. The DEM results are first verified against established radial void-fraction correlations, including the Mueller and Vortmeyer-Schuster models, to assess the predicted bulk porosity, near-wall behavior, and oscillatory packing structure. The simulation is then verified against reference DEM data and validated against gamma-ray computed tomography (CT) experimental data at three axial locations. The Chrono::GPU results reproduce the main features of the experimental packing, including the high void fraction near the wall, the first near-wall trough, and the damped oscillatory radial profile caused by wall-induced ordering. Quantitative comparison with DEM data and the CT-based radial profiles shows good agreement, with mean absolute errors on the order of 0.07 and root-mean-square errors below 0.09 for the averaged profiles. These results demonstrate that Chrono::GPU can accurately capture the void-fraction structure of spherical pebble beds and provides a reliable DEM framework for future pebble bed reactor packing, recycling, and thermal-hydraulic studies.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Structural modeling and validation of laminated stacks in magnetic gearing applications

Laminated structures are commonly employed in magnetic gears based on their ability to direct magnetic flux, while inhibiting eddy currents. Unfortunately, the stiffness of the laminated structure is much lower than a solid part, which can lead to unacceptable deflections, given the large magnetic forces and small air gaps in magnetic gears. Finite element analysis of laminations to accurately predict these deflections can be computationally expensive due to the small elements needed to model the thin lamination dimensions. These analyses also have some uncertainty due to the assignment of bonding stiffness. This paper presents a means of accurately modelling the deflection of a laminated stack with reduced complexity and computational time, which is compared to experimental results. Here, the resulting methods are then used to assess the magnetic and mechanical advantages of different designs for the modulating pieces of a magnetic gear.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Multiple Environmental Influences on the Lightning of Cold-Based Continental Cumulonimbus Clouds. Part I: Description and Validation of Model

In this two-part paper, influences from environmental factors on lightning in a convective storm are assessed with a model. In Part I, an electrical component is described and applied in the Aerosol–Cloud model (AC). AC treats many types of secondary (e.g., breakup in ice–ice collisions, raindrop-freezing fragmentation, rime splintering) and primary (heterogeneous, homogeneous freezing) ice initiation. AC represents lightning flashes with a statistical treatment of branching from a fractal law constrained by video imagery. The storm simulated is from the Severe Thunderstorm Electrification and Precipitation Study (STEPS; 19/20 June 2000). The simulation was validated microphysically [e.g., ice/droplet concentrations and mean sizes, liquid water content (LWC), reflectivity, surface precipitation] and dynamically (e.g., ascent) in our 2017 paper. Predicted ice concentrations (~10 L -1 ) agreed—to within a factor of about 2—with aircraft data at flight levels (-10° to -15°C). Here, electrical statistics of the same simulation are compared with observations. Flash rates (to within a factor of 2), triggering altitudes and polarity of flashes, and electric fields, all agree with the coincident STEPS observations. The “normal” tripole of charge structure observed during an electrical balloon sounding is reproduced by AC. It is related to reversal of polarity of noninductive charging in ice–ice collisions seen in laboratory experiments when temperature or LWC are varied. Positively charged graupel and negatively charged snow at most midlevels, charged away from the fastest updrafts, is predicted to cause the normal tripole. Total charge separated in the simulated storm is dominated by collisions involving secondary ice from fragmentation in graupel–snow collisions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Coupling Microstructural Evolution Simulations to Material Property Degradation Predictions for Plasma-Facing Materials

Reliable material performance is required for plasma-facing material (PFM) candidates. Previous research has shown that plasma and neutron radiation exposure induces microstructural changes in PFMs; changes in thermal and electrical conductivities and in material hardening and embrittlement were also observed after neutron irradiation. These material property changes will negatively impact the performance of the PFMs in a fusion reactor. Despite the well-known connection between material microstructure, properties, and performance, there is a need for validated modeling capabilities connecting PFM property degradation with microstructural evolution under fusion-relevant conditions. We are developing a simulation capability to couple plasma-induced microstructural evolution to material property degradation. Our approach relies on deliberate mapping between individual simulation models and experimental characterization for validation. The open-source Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) software was used for this simulation capability development. A MOOSE phase-field model was coupled with the cluster dynamics code, Xolotl, to predict microstructural evolution. Microstructure characterization techniques, including scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), and laser scanning confocal microscopy (LSCM) are used to validate these microstructural evolution simulations. Calculation of thermal and electrical conductivities with first principles simulations was performed for bulk material and for grain boundaries; these results are used within MOOSE models to calculate effective thermal and electrical conductivities as a function of grain characteristics. Thermoreflectance and four-probe techniques were employed to measure the thermal and electrical conductivities, respectively. A MOOSE crystal plasticity model was adapted to predict microstructure-sensitive deformation behavior, and X-ray diffraction (XRD) was used to collect bulk dislocation density data for validation. After individual simulation validation, these models are coupled to predict material property changes resulting from plasma exposure. We focused here on an experimental design to emphasize the separate effects of moderate thermal loads and plasma exposure using tungsten. Annealing of tungsten was performed under a protective environment for temperatures ranging from 500 C to 1500 C. The plasma exposure was completed in the Tritium Plasma Experiment at Idaho National Laboratory under a deuterium flux of 1e22 D/m^2-s. This incremental approach is employed to build confidence in the modeling capability: separate-effects tests ensure that the models capture key mechanisms from single environmental conditions before predicting PFM property degradation under combined loads. We will show our early results from coupling these simulation models to predict PFM property changes from microstructural evolution. Comparisons of the simulation results with preliminary validation data will be discussed.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Connect microstructure evolution to property degradation with validated simulation

Reliable material performance is required for plasma-facing material (PFM) candidates. Previous research has shown that plasma and neutron radiation exposure induces microstructural changes in PFMs; changes in thermal and electrical conductivities and in material hardening and embrittlement were also observed after neutron irradiation. These material property changes will negatively impact the performance of the PFMs in a fusion reactor. Despite the well-known connection between material microstructure, properties, and performance, there is a need for validated modeling capabilities connecting PFM property degradation with microstructural evolution under fusion-relevant conditions. We are developing a simulation capability to couple plasma-induced microstructural evolution to material property degradation. Our approach relies on deliberate mapping between individual simulation models and experimental characterization for validation. The open-source Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) software was used for this simulation capability development. A MOOSE phase-field model was coupled with the cluster dynamics code, Xolotl, to predict microstructural evolution. Microstructure characterization techniques, including scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), and laser scanning confocal microscopy (LSCM) are used to validate these microstructural evolution simulations. Calculation of thermal and electrical conductivities with first principles simulations was performed for bulk material and for grain boundaries; these results are used within MOOSE models to calculate effective thermal and electrical conductivities as a function of grain characteristics. Thermoreflectance and four-probe techniques were employed to measure the thermal and electrical conductivities, respectively. A MOOSE crystal plasticity model was adapted to predict microstructure-sensitive deformation behavior, and X-ray diffraction (XRD) was used to collect bulk dislocation density data for validation. After individual simulation validation, these models are coupled to predict material property changes resulting from plasma exposure. We focused here on an experimental design to emphasize the separate effects of moderate thermal loads and plasma exposure using tungsten. Annealing of tungsten was performed under a protective environment for temperatures ranging from 500$^o$C to 1500$^o$C. The plasma exposure was completed in the Tritium Plasma Experiment at Idaho National Laboratory under a deuterium flux of 1e22 $\frac{D}{m^2s}$. This incremental approach is employed to build confidence in the modeling capability: separate-effects tests ensure that the models capture key mechanisms from single environmental conditions before predicting PFM property degradation under combined loads. We will show our early results from coupling these simulation models to predict PFM property changes from microstructural evolution. Comparisons of the simulation results with preliminary validation data will be discussed.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Representative Phenomena of Cyclic Turbulent Combustion in High-Pressure Fuel Sprays

Abstract Cyclic variations in conventional diesel combustion engines can lead to large differences in engine out emissions even at steady operation. This study uses an optically accessible constant-pressure flow chamber to acquire fuel injections in quick succession to analyze mixing, auto-ignition, and combustion of diesel-surrogate n-heptane using multiple high-speed optical diagnostics. Prior studies have utilized fewer injections and/or they rely on analysis of ensemble average behavior. These approaches do not yield information on injection-to-injection variation or provide confidence in utilizing individual injection measurements for high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics(CFD) model validation. In this study, a large set of 500 injections is used to obtain global parameters including liquid length, vapor penetration length, ignition delay time, and lift-off length. Results for multiple injections are presented to illustrate large injection to injection variations. Potential sources for these variations are analyzed to conclude localized, small scale turbulence and rate of injection variations as the likely sources. Then, a statistical method based on z-scores is proposed and implemented to identify instantaneous injections that best represent the bulk data-set of jet boundaries measured independently by three different diagnostics. This synthesis of statistics-guided screening of data set and ensemble-average analysis offers higher confidence for CFD model validation relying upon both a representative single and average injection results.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multi-decade high-resolution regional hindcasts for wave energy resource characterization in U.S. coastal waters

Long-term, high-resolution, regional wave hindcast datasets were generated using unstructured-grid Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) models for the U.S. coastal waters to support nearshore wave energy development in the U.S. including those bordering U.S. territorial islands. The model domains resolved the entire U.S. exclusive economic zones, with a spatial resolution of approximately 200 m nearshore. The regional SWAN models were driven by the global WAVEWATCH III® model outputs and run for a 42-year period from 1979 to 2020. Extensive model validations were performed using buoy observations and altimeter data. Regional resource characterization was performed based on hindcast data points at 2 km from shore and along the 100 m isobath. Aggregations of wave resource parameters were produced, and spatial and seasonal variations were analyzed for all the regions. Wave resource metrics recommended by international standards, including a 3-hour time series of six resource parameters, hourly frequency- and directionally resolved wave spectra at selected “virtual buoy” locations, and average-annual values of omni-directional wave power, significant wave height, and energy period are publicly disseminated through an Amazon Web Service and a Marine Energy Atlas web application tool to facilitate wave energy research and a wide range of coastal ocean applications.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2022

End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock: Methodology and Results of Model Calibration, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification

The United States is embarking on an ambitious transition to a 100% clean energy economy by 2050, which will require improving the flexibility of electric grids. One way to achieve grid flexibility is to shed or shift demand to align with changing grid needs. To facilitate this, it is critical to understand how and when energy is used. High- quality end-use load profiles (EULPs) provide this information, and can help cities, states, and utilities understand the time-sensitive value of energy efficiency, demand response, and distributed energy resources. Publicly available EULPs have traditionally had limited application because of age and incomplete geographic representation (Frick, Eckman, and Goldman 2017; Frick 2019). To help fill this gap, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded a three-year project - End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock - that culminated in the release of a publicly available dataset1 of simulated EULPs representing residential and commercial buildings across the contiguous United States. The motivation for this work is further detailed in a November 2019 report: Market Needs, Use Cases, and Data Gaps (Mims Frick et al. 2019). This Methodology and Results report provides detailed descriptions of how the dataset was developed, intended for an audience of dataset and model users interested in the technical details. These details include descriptions of all of the model improvements made for calibration and the final comparisons to empirical data sources. A companion report, End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock: Applications and Opportunities, will be published subsequently and will describe example applications and considerations for using the dataset, intended for an audience of general dataset users.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Inclusive cross section measurements in final states with and without protons for charged-current ν μ -Ar scattering in MicroBooNE

A detailed understanding of inclusive muon neutrino charged-current interactions on argon is crucial to the study of neutrino oscillations in current and future experiments using liquid argon time projection chambers. To that end, we report a comprehensive set of differential cross section measurements for this channel that simultaneously probe the leptonic and hadronic systems by dividing the channel into final states with and without protons. Measurements of the proton kinematics and proton multiplicity of the final state are also presented. For these measurements, we utilize data collected with the MicroBooNE detector from 6.4 × 10 20 protons on target from the Fermilab booster neutrino beam at a mean neutrino energy of approximately 0.8 GeV. We present in detail the cross section extraction procedure, including the unfolding, and model validation that uses data to model comparisons and the conditional constraint formalism to detect mismodeling that may introduce biases to extracted cross sections that are larger than their uncertainties. The validation exposes insufficiencies in the overall model, motivating the inclusion of an additional data-driven reweighting systematic to ensure the accuracy of the unfolding. The extracted results are compared to a number of event generators and their performance is discussed with a focus on the regions of phase space that indicate the greatest need for modeling improvements. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Application of machine learning to evaluating and remediating models for energy and environmental engineering

Machine learning (ML) algorithms have been increasingly successful in their applications to solve energy and environmental engineering problems. ML algorithms have the advantage of being able to solve highly nonlinear issues effectively. Furthermore, considering the limited sample size of data collected in energy and environmental engineering, obtaining a ML model with reasonable accuracy is simple. Unfortunately, the vast majority of the current applications of ML algorithms lack effective screening of dominant factors and comprehensive model validation, which weakens the predictive ability of the models. The present study takes the minimum miscible pressure (MMP) of CO 2 - oil systems as an example. It establishes a systematic and robust predictive model to address this issue. Based on 147 sets of slim tube tests, the predictive models of the MMPs are investigated by application of eight ML algorithms. The paper concludes that most of the published ML models in the field of energy and environmental engineering prediction are not reliable. Furthermore, it addresses the main reasons for the poor performance of some predictive models built by ML and provides guidelines on how to make such models robust. Further, to the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to point out the defects of current ML modeling methods and propose countermeasures for their application in energy and environmental engineering problems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗