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At least 217 records · Page 12

$\overline{TKE}$ Parameterization and $\bar{v}$ Uncertainty Analysis for CGMF

Previous work was performed on tuning CGMF parameters for 235 U, 238 U, and Plutonium isotopes. Now work is being done to tune minor uranium isotopes. However, uranium isotopes like 232 U and 236 U have almost no experimental data. We are applying cross-isotope models to extrapolate and tune CGMF on isotopes that lack experimental data. There exist several internal CGMF physics quantities that affect the output of CGMF—multi-chance fission probability, excitation energy sharing, spin-cutoff factor, spin scaling, and fragment total kinetic energy to name a few. The mean fragment total kinetic energy, $\overline{TKE}$, is particularly interesting because of its strong anti-correlation with $\bar{v}$. We are most interested in the mean fragment total kinetic energy before neutron emissions. $\overline{TKE}$ is assumed to be pre-neutron emission unless otherwise stated. Currently in CGMF, the $\overline{TKE}$ model for 233,234,235,238 U are tuned independently to reproduce ν for the associated isotopes. In this report, we will tune a cross-isotope $\overline{TKE}$ model to experimental $\overline{TKE}$ data for 232,233,234,235,236,238 U. Because of the unreliable and sparse nature of $\overline{TKE}$ experimental data, future work will use more reliable experimental $\bar{v}$ data to infer the $\overline{TKE}$ model (and likely other internal CGMF parameters) for uranium isotopes. Such work has been performed previously using a sensitivity analysis and Kalman filter methods.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES

Optical Time Transfer for Bistatic SAR Spacecraft

A spacecraft-to-spacecraft optical time-transfer simulation has been developed as a tool for informing NASA’s Surface Deformation and Change (SDC) mission architecture. The SDC mission will combine radar images from multiple spacecraft to improve understanding of the Earth’s sea-level and landscape changes. Spacecraft must be precisely synchronized in order to create sharp radar images. Simulation of multiple spacecraft time-synchronizing via laser communication can inform technology choices of a mission by providing a picosecond-precision level estimate of clock error. This timing and ranging simulation has been combined with a radar system performance analysis pipeline. The simulated timing errors are used to predict performance of bistatic SAR systems in the presence of oscillator noise and time synchronization in accuracy. This analysis includes both analytic approximation equations from existing literature, and a numerical radar simulation to extract key system performance parameters like phase error and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR)degradation. Precision time-transfer techniques facilitate the accurate synchronization of clocks between any combination of terminals. Most time-transfer technology for comparing two clocks at different terminals use radio frequencies (RF) to measure the time delay between the sending and receiving of signals. Laser technology offers the capability to transmit high data rates with systems that are of smaller size and lower power than comparable RF systems. The clocks on independent spacecraft will have some phase and frequency errors between them that result in clock drift. The two clock models that are included in this bi-directional MATLAB simulation are a cesium-based Chip-Scale Atomic Clock (CSAC) and a rubidium-based Miniature Atomic Clock (MAC). The CSAC has flown as hardware for small satellite missions such as the University of Florida’s CHOMPTT mission. A study of example orbits, including that of NASA NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar Mission (NISAR) mission, and lasing rates demonstrate the impact of flight configuration parameters on the synchronization error between two spacecraft. The MATLAB timing simulation uses a Runge-Kutta 4th-order method to propagate spacecraft orbits and computes the light-travel time estimate between them. The simulation outputs the estimated range and estimated clock error based on a user-defined spacecraft cluster configuration. The radar simulation and analytic approximations are applied to evaluate a potential future NASA bistatic SAR constellation architecture. In the proposed architecture, satellites follow each other in the same orbit at 800 km altitude, with a 210 km baseline. We also baseline the CSAC as an ultra stable oscillator, and use NASA’s NISAR for baseline radar system parameters to compute a clock-system introduced phase error of 5.6 degrees without synchronization by frequent time transfer. We build on this base case with a sensitivity analysis of radar performance over a proposed range of constellation and radar system parameters. With this analysis pipeline, we comment on which radar parameters should or should not be changed to minimize synchronization requirements. This analysis technique could be extended or modified to evaluate the timing requirements of other geometries for other future multistatic SAR missions, or other interferometric satellite missions.

Surface Deformation and Change

Sensitivity Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification of a Mars Ascent Vehicle Concept

The design of a conceptual Mars ascent vehicle is a challenging problem. In order to aid the vehicle and mission concept design it is important to understand the driving design parameters and the expected performance in the presence of model errors and uncertainties. An existing six degree of freedom simulation model is analyzed on a statistical basis using the methods available in the Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications toolkit. The methods utilized include conventional Monte Carlo techniques, metamodeling via polynomial chaos expansions, and global variance-based sensitivity analyses. Two additional analysis methods referred to as “Monte Carlo filtering” and ”Classification trees” are used to determine which uncertain parameters are driving the performance of the vehicle. Monte Carlo filtering provides a methodology to determine which parameters cause qualitatively different behavior while the classification trees use heuristics to partition the input space and assign probabilities to each partition. These methods serve as qualitative descriptors of model sensitivity while variance-based global sensitivity analysis seeks a quantitative mapping from total output variance to the variance of individual inputs. Application of these techniques to several outputs of a Mars ascent vehicle concept simulation indicates that only a select few input factors dominate their variance.

Noyes, Connor

Instrumental variables algorithm for modal parameter identification in flutter testing

The paper is concerned with the task of estimating modal parameters from system response measurement in aircraft flutter testing. A frequency-domain derivation of an instrumental-variables algorithm is presented for a linear time-invariant dynamic system of order n. Basically, this algorithm fits a set of poles and zeros to the measured transfer function. An illustrative example is provided regarding the application of the algorithm to aeroelasticity testing. It is shown that the algorithm can be implemented for on-line data reduction with a microcomputer-based analysis system. By using instrumental variables the sensitivity of the modal parameter estimates to noise in the system-response measurements is reduced greatly. The algorithm is expected to be a powerful and valuable tool for on-line estimation of modal parameters in flutter testing and should be useful in control system and structural dynamics tests.

Johnson, W.

New technology for an ancient fish: A lamprey life cycle modeling tool with an R Shiny application

Lampreys (Petromyzontiformes) are an ancient group of fishes with complex life histories. We created a life cycle model that includes an R Shiny interactive web application interface to simulate abundance by life stage. This will allow scientists and managers to connect available demographic information in a framework that can be applied to questions regarding lamprey biology and conservation. We used Pacific lamprey ( Entosphenus tridentatus ) as a case study to highlight the utility of this model. We applied a global sensitivity analysis to explore the importance of individual life stage parameters to overall population size, and to better understand the implications of existing gaps in knowledge. We also provided example analyses of selected management scenarios (dam passage, fish translocations, and hatchery additions) influencing Pacific lamprey in fresh water. These applications illustrate how the model can be applied to inform conservation efforts. This tool will provide new capabilities for users to explore their own questions about lamprey biology and conservation. Simulations can hone hypotheses and predictions, which can then be empirically tested in the real world.

Gomes, Dylan G. E. (ORCID:0000000226423728)

Conceptual design and analysis of an infared horizon sensor with compensation for atmospheric variability

A horizon detection logic, based on a ratio-of-integrated-radiance concept, which detects the earth's horizon at a relatively stable height under all geographic and meteorological conditions was evaluated by computer simulation on a body of synthesized radiance profiles. An error-sensitivity analysis of the concept was performed, and optimum design parameter values for a sensor were determined. A conceptual design for an improved 15 micron sensor based on this analysis is discussed.

Jalink, A., Jr.

The Voyager Cosmic Ray Experiment

The Voyager Cosmic Ray Experiment includes seven dE/dx-E telescopes to measure the energy and charge of particles with atomic numbers from 1 to 26 in the energy range 1-500 MeV/nucleon and to measure electron energy in the range from 3 to 110 MeV. Isotopic composition of hydrogen through sulfur in the range up to 75 Mev/nucleon can also be resolved. The electronic systems include a dual-gain, charge sensitive preamplifier, 4096-channel pulse height analyzers for three parameter analysis of selected events, and an event type readout polling scheme to maximize the use of available telemetry space and to enhance the occurrence of rare events in the data. Details of the detector, electronic and mechanical design are presented.

Stilwell, D. E.

Analysis of a parallel-arrayed power regulating system

A power regulation system incorporating n-parallel power supplies employing PWM switching regulators is studied. Analysis of individual unit operation and coupled-system parameter sensitivity is considered from an operations viewpoint. A detailed example is included to illustrate parallel system operation for 18 such units powered by solar-cell banks.

Colburn, B. K.

Simulation Modeling of Software Development Processes

A simulation modeling approach is proposed for the prediction of software process productivity indices, such as cost and time-to-market, and the sensitivity analysis of such indices to changes in the organization parameters and user requirements. The approach uses a timed Petri Net and Object Oriented top-down model specification. Results demonstrate the model representativeness, and its usefulness in verifying process conformance to expectations, and in performing continuous process improvement and optimization.

Calavaro, G. F.

Intrinsic Dimensionality as a Metric for the Impact of Mission Design Parameters

High-resolution space-based spectral imaging of the Earth's surface delivers critical information for monitoring changes in the Earth system as well as resource management and utilization. Orbiting spectrometers are built according to multiple design parameters, including ground sampling distance (GSD), spectral resolution, temporal resolution, and signal-to-noise ratio. Different applications drive divergent instrument designs, so optimization for wide-reaching missions is complex. The Surface Biology and Geology component of NASA's Earth System Observatory addresses science questions and meets applications needs across diverse fields, including terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, natural disasters, and the cryosphere. The algorithms required to generate the geophysical variables from the observed spectral imagery each have their own inherent dependencies and sensitivities, and weighting these objectively is challenging. Here, we introduce intrinsic dimensionality (ID), a measure of information content, as an applications-agnostic, data-driven metric to quantify performance sensitivity to various design parameters. ID is computed through the analysis of the eigenvalues of the image covariance matrix, and can be thought of as the number of significant principal components. This metric is extremely powerful for quantifying the information content in high-dimensional data, such as spectrally resolved radiances and their changes over space and time. We find that the ID decreases for coarser GSD, decreased spectral resolution and range, less frequent acquisitions, and lower signal-to-noise levels. This decrease in information content has implications for all derived products. ID is simple to compute, providing a single quantitative standard to evaluate combinations of design parameters, irrespective of higher-level algorithms, products, applications, or disciplines.

Intrinsic dimensionality

Sensitivity analysis for large-deflection and postbuckling responses on distributed-memory computers

A computational strategy is presented for calculating sensitivity coefficients for the nonlinear large-deflection and postbuckling responses of laminated composite structures on distributed-memory parallel computers. The strategy is applicable to any message-passing distributed computational environment. The key elements of the proposed strategy are: (1) a multiple-parameter reduced basis technique; (2) a parallel sparse equation solver based on a nested dissection (or multilevel substructuring) node ordering scheme; and (3) a multilevel parallel procedure for evaluating hierarchical sensitivity coefficients. The hierarchical sensitivity coefficients measure the sensitivity of the composite structure response to variations in three sets of interrelated parameters; namely, laminate, layer and micromechanical (fiber, matrix, and interface/interphase) parameters. The effectiveness of the strategy is assessed by performing hierarchical sensitivity analysis for the large-deflection and postbuckling responses of stiffened composite panels with cutouts on three distributed-memory computers. The panels are subjected to combined mechanical and thermal loads. The numerical studies presented demonstrate the advantages of the reduced basis technique for hierarchical sensitivity analysis on distributed-memory machines.

Watson, Brian C.

Senstitivity analysis of horizontal heat and vapor transfer coefficients for a cloud-topped marine boundary layer during cold-air outbreaks

The effects of external parameters on the surface heat and vapor fluxes into the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) during cold-air outbreaks are investigated using the numerical model of Stage and Businger (1981a). These fluxes are nondimensionalized using the horizontal heat (g1) and vapor (g2) transfer coefficient method first suggested by Chou and Atlas (1982) and further formulated by Stage (1983a). In order to simplify the problem, the boundary layer is assumed to be well mixed and horizontally homogeneous, and to have linear shoreline soundings of equivalent potential temperature and mixing ratio. Modifications of initial surface flux estimates, time step limitation, and termination conditions are made to the MABL model to obtain accurate computations. The dependence of g1 and g2 in the cloud topped boundary layer on the external parameters (wind speed, divergence, sea surface temperature, radiative sky temperature, cloud top radiation cooling, and initial shoreline soundings of temperature, and mixing ratio) is studied by a sensitivity analysis, which shows that the uncertainties of horizontal transfer coefficients caused by changes in the parameters are reasonably small.

Chang, Y. V.

Satellite on-board processing for earth resources data

Results of a survey of earth resources user applications and their data requirements, earth resources multispectral scanner sensor technology, and preprocessing algorithms for correcting the sensor outputs and for data bulk reduction are presented along with a candidate data format. Computational requirements required to implement the data analysis algorithms are included along with a review of computer architectures and organizations. Computer architectures capable of handling the algorithm computational requirements are suggested and the environmental effects of an on-board processor discussed. By relating performance parameters to the system requirements of each of the user requirements the feasibility of on-board processing is determined for each user. A tradeoff analysis is performed to determine the sensitivity of results to each of the system parameters. Significant results and conclusions are discussed, and recommendations are presented.

Bodenheimer, R. E.

Large Area Scene Selection Interface (LASSI). Methodology of Selecting Landsat Imagery for the Global Land Survey 2005

The Global Land Survey (GLS) 2005 is a cloud-free, orthorectified collection of Landsat imagery acquired during the 2004-2007 epoch intended to support global land-cover and ecological monitoring. Due to the numerous complexities in selecting imagery for the GLS2005, NASA and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) sponsored the development of an automated scene selection tool, the Large Area Scene Selection Interface (LASSI), to aid in the selection of imagery for this data set. This innovative approach to scene selection applied a user-defined weighting system to various scene parameters: image cloud cover, image vegetation greenness, choice of sensor, and the ability of the Landsat 7 Scan Line Corrector (SLC)-off pair to completely fill image gaps, among others. The parameters considered in scene selection were weighted according to their relative importance to the data set, along with the algorithm's sensitivity to that weight. This paper describes the methodology and analysis that established the parameter weighting strategy, as well as the post-screening processes used in selecting the optimal data set for GLS2005.

Franks, Shannon

Operational and Technical Updates to the Object Reentry Survival Analysis Tool

The Object Reentry Survival Analysis Tool (ORSAT) has been used in the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office for over 25 years to estimate risk due to uncontrolled reentry of spacecraft and rocket bodies. Development over the last 3 years has included: a major change to the treatment of carbon fiber- and glass fiber-reinforced plastics (CFRP and GFRP, respectively); an updated atmospheric model; a new model for computing casualty area around an impacting debris object; and a newly-implemented scheme to determine the breakup altitude of a reentry object. Software also was written to automatically perform parameter sweeps in ORSAT to allow for uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis for components with borderline demisability. These updates have improved the speed and fidelity of the reentry analysis performed using ORSAT, and have allowed for improved engineering understanding by estimating the uncertainty for each component’s survivability. A statistical model for initial conditions captures the latitude bias in population density, a large improvement over the previous inclination-based latitude-averaged models. A sample spacecraft has been analyzed with standard techniques using ORSAT 6.2.1 and again using all the updated models; we will demonstrate the variation in the total debris casualty area and overall expectation of casualty.

Ostrom, C.

Sensitivity analysis of the add-on price estimate for the silicon web growth process

The web growth process, a silicon-sheet technology option, developed for the flat plate solar array (FSA) project, was examined. Base case data for the technical and cost parameters for the technical and commercial readiness phase of the FSA project are projected. The process add on price, using the base case data for cost parameters such as equipment, space, direct labor, materials and utilities, and the production parameters such as growth rate and run length, using a computer program developed specifically to do the sensitivity analysis with improved price estimation are analyzed. Silicon price, sheet thickness and cell efficiency are also discussed.

Mokashi, A. R.

Sensitivity of Mission Energy Consumption to Turboelectric Distributed Propulsion Design Assumptions on the N3-X Hybrid Wing Body Aircraft

In a previous study by the authors it was shown that the N3-X, a 300 passenger hybrid wing body (HWB) aircraft with a turboelectric distributed propulsion (TeDP) system, was able to meet the NASA Subsonic Fixed Wing (SFW) project goal for N+3 generation aircraft of at least a 60% reduction in total energy consumption as compared to the best in class current generation aircraft. This previous study combined technology assumptions that represented the highest anticipated values that could be matured to technology readiness level (TRL) 4-6 by 2030. This paper presents the results of a sensitivity analysis of the total mission energy consumption to reductions in each key technology assumption. Of the parameters examined, the mission total energy consumption was most sensitive to changes to total pressure loss in the propulsor inlet. The baseline inlet internal pressure loss is assumed to be an optimistic 0.5%. An inlet pressure loss of 3% increases the total energy consumption 9%. However changes to reduce inlet pressure loss can result in additional distortion to the fan which can reduce fan efficiency or vice versa. It is very important that the inlet and fan be analyzed and optimized as a single unit. The turboshaft hot section is assumed to be made of ceramic matrix composite (CMC) with a 3000 F maximum material temperature. Reducing the maximum material temperature to 2700 F increases the mission energy consumption by only 1.5%. Thus achieving a 3000 F temperature in CMCs is important but not central to achieving the energy consumption objective of the N3-X/TeDP. A key parameter in the efficiency of superconducting motors and generators is the size of the superconducting filaments in the stator. The size of the superconducting filaments in the baseline model is assumed to be 10 microns. A 40 micron filament, which represents current technology, results in a 200% increase in AC losses in the motor and generator stators. This analysis shows that for a system with 40 micron filaments the higher stator losses plus the added weight and power of larger cryocoolers results in a 4% increase in mission energy consumption. If liquid hydrogen is used to cool the superconductors the 40 micron fibers results in a 200% increase in hydrogen required for cooling. Each pound of hydrogen used as fuel displaces 3 pounds of jet fuel. For the N3-X on the reference mission the additional hydrogen due to the increase stator losses reduces the total fuel weight 10%. The lighter fuel load and attendant vehicle resizing reduces the total energy consumption more than the higher stator losses increase it. As a result with hydrogen cooling there is a slight reduction in mission energy consumption with increasing stator losses. This counter intuitive result highlights the need to consider the full system impact of changes rather than just at the component or subsystem level.

Felder, James L.

Sensitivity Analysis in the Presence of Intrinsic Stochasticity for Discrete Fracture Network Simulations

Abstract Large‐scale discrete fracture network (DFN) simulators are standard fare for studies involving the sub‐surface transport of particles since direct observation of real world underground fracture networks is generally infeasible. While these simulators have successfully been used in several engineering applications, estimates of output quantities of interest (QoI) — such as breakthrough time of particles reaching the edge of the system — suffer from two distinct types of uncertainty. A run of a DFN simulator requires several parameters to be set that dictate the placement and size of fractures, the density of fractures, and the overall permeability of the system; uncertainty on the proper parameters will lead to uncertainty in the QoI, called epistemic uncertainty. Furthermore, since these input settings to DFN simulators control the stochastic processes which place fractures and govern flow, understanding how this randomness affects the QoI requires several runs of the simulator at distinct random seeds. The uncertainty in the QoI attributed to different realizations (i.e., different seeds) of the same random process (i.e., identical input parameters) leads to a second type of uncertainty, called aleatoric uncertainty. In this paper, we perform a Sensitivity Analysis, which directly attributes the uncertainty observed in the QoI to the epistemic uncertainty from each input parameter and to the aleatoric uncertainty. Beyond the specific takeaways on which input variables influence uncertainty in the QoI the most, a major contribution of this paper is the introduction of a statistically rigorous workflow for characterizing the uncertainty in DFN flow simulations that exhibit heteroskedasticity.

58 GEOSCIENCES