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DOE OSTI2024

Energy Systems Decarbonization: Perspectives on Electric Vehicles and Grid Integration

The imperative for strong and rapid emissions reductions to mitigate global warming and enhance air quality necessitates a transition to net-zero emissions. This shift requires significant changes throughout the entire energy supply-demand ecosystems, tailored to various sectors. Transportation stands as the least-diversified energy sector and the largest source of U.S. GHG emissions. As the primary catalyst for vehicle decarbonization when paired with clean electricity, electric vehicles (EVs) will play a pivotal role in the future. EVs are poised to drive substantial growth in electricity demand and presents a unique opportunity to provide demand-side flexibility that is crucial for future renewable-dominated electricity systems. Smart integration of EVs can strengthen the grid, reducing costs and enhancing resilience. At NREL, laying the scientific groundwork to actualize this vision: our research is finding ways for EVs to support grid planning and operations across several timescales and to fully exploit the synergies between EVs and renewables.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,POWER TRANSMISSION AND↗

DOE OSTI2022

The Net Zero World Initiative’s Preliminary Analysis of Decarbonization Pathways for Five Countries

Under the Net Zero World Initiative, the United States is mobilizing the capabilities of nine U.S. government agencies, led by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), to partner with philanthropies and multiple countries to cocreate and implement tailored technical and investment pathways to accelerate the decarbonization of global energy systems. In addition, 10 of the DOE national laboratories have built a consortium housed in the Net Zero World Action Center to implement this vision by providing the deep analysis and modeling required to carry out the vision. As a whole-of-government program, the Net Zero World Initiative partners with countries committed to raising their climate ambitions by creating and implementing highly tailored, actionable technical and investment strategies that put a net-zero world within reach. The initiative enables country partners to harness the convening power and technical expertise of U.S. agencies and laboratories, international industry, and technical institutions while providing the United States an opportunity to learn from and deepen U.S. technical cooperation with key countries. This report is the first of a series, with future Phase II work being informed by ongoing consultations with the partner countries to address country pathway analysis priorities. This future work will likely include evaluating detailed technological, policy, and investment options for key sectors and for energy systems holistically. This analysis may examine in greater detail the economic and social benefits of net-zero energy transitions, including quality jobs and health outcomes, the impacts of price and supply volatility on energy investments and decisions, the risk of stranded assets, and related issues.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Design and requirements of a hydrogen component reliability database (HyCReD)

Hydrogen technologies are expected to play a key role in the decarbonization of several sectors including energy storage and transportation. Rigorous investigation and quantification of the risk and reliability issues associated with hydrogen technologies will be critical to ensuring both their wider adoption and safe, economical operations. Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) is an important tool that has been used to enable the safe deployment of many engineering systems, including hydrogen fueling stations and hydrogen storage systems. However, QRA studies require reliability data which is currently lacking for expanding applications of hydrogen systems. Here, to address this gap, we present a new structure for a hydrogen component reliability database (HyCReD) that can be used to generate reliability data to be used in QRA, reliability, safety studies, maintenance planning, and more. Building on our previous work examining four major hydrogen safety data collection tools (West et al., 2022) [1], our approach in this work was to consult scientific literature on reliability data collection as well as a number of existing reliability engineering databases in the oil & gas, chemical processing, and nuclear power plant sectors. The evaluation of these databases led to identifying best practices to be implemented in a data collection framework for a hydrogen component reliability database. Based on these best practices, a set of 24 requirements for the proposed database are presented, covering its characteristics and the types of data to be collected. We define the structure of the HyCReD database and 25 data elements to be collected, spanning system description, failure, shutdown, or near-miss events, and maintenance events. The data elements are then defined according to international standards used in the safety and reliability practice and potential choice lists are provided for each field. Since this database is being piloted for hydrogen fueling stations, a generic station component hierarchy developed by West (2021) [2] is used to standardize system data. Finally, we demonstrate populating the database with information extracted from five narrative reports on hydrogen fueling station incidents.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2022

Storage Futures Study: Key Learnings for the Coming Decades

This report is the final in NREL's Storage Futures Study, a multiyear research project that explored the role and impact of energy storage in the evolution and operation of the U.S. power sector. The SFS examined the potential impact of energy storage technology advancement on the deployment of utility-scale storage and the adoption of distributed storage, and the implications for future power system infrastructure investment and operations. The research findings and supporting data were published across a series of six reports, culminating in this final, seventh publication that draws upon findings from across the study, previous work, and additional analysis to identify eight key learnings about the future of energy storage and its impact on the power system. The key learnings can help policymakers, technology developers, and grid operators prepare for the coming way of energy storage deployment.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Electric Grid Supply Chain Review: Large Power Transformers and High Voltage Direct Current Systems

The report “America’s Strategy to Secure the Supply Chain for a Robust Clean Energy Transition” lays out the challenges and opportunities faced by the United States in the energy supply chain as well as the federal government plans to address these challenges and opportunities. It is accompanied by several issue-specific deep dive assessments, including this one, in response to Executive Order 14017 “America’s Supply Chains,” which directs the Secretary of Energy to submit a report on supply chains for the energy sector industrial base. The Executive Order is helping the federal government to build more secure and diverse U.S. supply chains, including energy supply chains. The need to modernize and increase the capacity of the U.S. power grid is increasing due to growing population, aging infrastructure, grid resilience requirements, operational flexibility needs, and a growing portfolio of renewable energy. As part of the Paris Climate Agreement the United States has committed to reducing its net greenhouse gas emissions by 50 to 52 percent below 2005 levels in 2030 and has set a goal of 100 percent carbon pollution free electricity by 2035 (The United States of America Nationally Determined Contribution, 2021). Meeting these targets will require a significant expansion of the power system to integrate a large amount of new renewable resources (United States Department of State & United States Executive Office of the President, 2021). However, many critical components supporting the power grid have limited to no domestic manufacturing capacity and face complex challenges in supporting a rapid expansion of the grid to meet multiple objectives, including decarbonization goals. This report focuses on two key grid components: large power transformers (LPTs) and high-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Economic Analysis of Integrated Solar Power, Hydrogen Production, and Electricity Markets

Hydrogen is a versatile energy carrier that is used in a wide variety of chemical and industrial processes. Producing hydrogen using electrolysis can enable integration of multiple sectors including electricity, heating, and industrial sectors; however, the cost of producing hydrogen from electrolysis remains a challenge for encouraging greater adoption. To help improve the economics for both solar PV and hydrogen production using electrolyzers, we explore the benefit of combining PV and electrolysis systems. Using the Revenue Operation and Device Optimization Model (RODeO) model, the optimal breakeven hydrogen production cost for six unique market participation configurations is calculated at six candidate locations in California where PV is already installed. Costs include production, storage, and compression in preparation for gaseous delivery trucks. Revenue streams included in the optimization are the sale of hydrogen, Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) credits, renewable electricity sold to the grid, and Renewable Energy Credits (REC). The costs included are the electricity costs, capital and fixed operation and maintenance cost (FOM) for the electrolyzer, PV, and storage and compression systems as well as taxes and financing costs. In addition, cost reductions are achieved through retail and wholesale electricity use optimization, by which electricity is purchased at the lowest price and sold, if possible, at the highest price. For all locations analyzed, the breakeven hydrogen production cost results show that, in order of decreasing cost, the system configurations are islanded (highest), separated, NEM, retail, hybrid retail/wholesale, and wholesale (lowest). This report also explores other aspects of hydrogen systems including optimal renewable sizing and resulting energy mixture to the electrolyzer, value of renewable premiums, competition with incumbent technologies, cost sensitivity to a variety of parameters.

decarbonized economy↗

DOE OSTI2023

Study of Storage Requirements and Costs for Shaping Renewables and Nuclear Energy (FY23 Summary Report)

To decarbonize electricity generation primarily by using wind and solar resources, it is likely that additional low (or zero) carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) alternatives will be required for ensuring a reliable electricity supply. This study extends the work and modeling framework that we consolidated in FY 2022, by assessing the zero-CO 2 pathways of a Texas power system in which the availability of variable renewable energy (VRE), nuclear energy, and energy storage types (i.e., battery and thermal energy storage [TES]) are considered the sole resources available for expansion. Using the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) and Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) frameworks, this study investigates the market of two nuclear energy technologies (i.e., large light-water reactors [LWRs] and LWR-type small modular reactors [SMRs]) under two plausible storage coupling scenarios (i.e., electric coupling and direct thermal coupling). We also explore optimal environments for nuclear energy deployment, and identify key performance characteristics that make nuclear energy economically viable in areas with significant intermittent energy sources. Our analysis encompasses 24 cases. We model the least-cost grid systems, highlight the potential for a coupled LWR-TES approach, and utilize SMRs to achieve deep decarbonization in an affordable, technically feasible manner. We also examine seasonal variations in balancing electricity supply and demand, and account for varying performance, costs, and grid constraints. Overall, the findings of our modeling afford valuable insights for supporting future technology investment decisions in the energy sector.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Towards Prospective LCA Using Life-Cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-Source Numerical Models (LiAISON) Framework for Analyzing Emerging Low-Carbon Technologies

Decarbonizing the industrial sector is a significant challenge in achieving a net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy by 2050 and the Paris Agreement, i.e., a global climate change mitigation target of achieving a maximum average temperature change potential of 1.5 Degrees Celsius or less by 2100 with respect to pre-industrial levels. In the United States (US), the industrial sector accounts for 23% of total GHG emissions and is home to a number of hard-to-electrify activities. The chemicals subsector has the single largest subsector emissions profile after direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion and leakage from fossil fuel distribution systems. Within the chemicals subsector, many processes depend on hydrogen or ammonia precursors. Decarbonizing these two commodities would contribute significantly to decarbonizing the industrial sector as hydrogen could also be used for low carbon steel production (e.g., hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron) and other industrial applications. Emerging technologies require the application of prospective life cycle assessment (LCA), which can account for technology (foreground) scaling and process improvements via learning-by-doing, among others. In many cases, the future system context (background) in which the technologies are assumed to operate in is equally relevant. Background scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAM) can coherently incorporate potential future dynamics of the energy-climate-human-land system. Further, IAM scenarios are harmonized across socioeconomic and climate change mitigation pathways, which facilitates the comparability of prospective LCAs using different IAMs. We introduce an open source prospective LCA framework, the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON), to analyze the non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background across a series of midpoint and resource use metrics The integration of LCA and IAM data is achieved using prospective environmental Impact assessment (PREMISE). We showcase it by assessing two Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) processes, namely Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline of hydrogen production via natural gas-based Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in a US context of multiple energy system and climate change mitigation futures. Besides providing an analysis that specifies the LCA results ranges with temporal and geospatial explicitness across the two technologies, metrics, and impact assessment methods, this research also aims to establish a base framework that can be expanded to use other IAM generated scenarios and US open-source life cycle inventory (LCI) databases. We find that the temporal environmental performance of either technology or their difference to SMR is directly influenced by the underlying background dynamics. Additionally we compare our results by linking two other prospective models with LiAISON - GCAM(Global Change Assessment Model) and ReEDS (Regional Energy Deployment System) to analyze the effect of changing background scenarios using varying predictions in life cycle analysis.

emissions↗

DOE OSTI2023

Modeling Tool Development and Validation for Solar Industry Process Heat Using Particle Thermal Energy Storage

U.S. industry sectors used 26.2 quadrillion Btu and accounted for 33% of total energy consumption in 2021 according to the Energy Information Agency. Industrial process heat accounts for 70% of industrial energy use with application temperatures ranging from 60 degrees -1100 degrees C. Industry processes, heavily relying on fossil fuels of cheap coal or natural gas, differ widely in operating conditions and load requirements which makes them difficult to standardize and imposes great challenges in decarbonization. Industry processes require reliable energy supply and vary widely in temperature ranges. Storing energy from renewable sources is necessary to improve reliability and to mitigate renewable intermittency when replacing carbon fuel-based heat supplies to achieve energy savings and reduce emissions. To this end, we have developed a particle-based thermal energy storage (TES) technology using low-cost and highly stable silica sand as a storage medium. The economic and performance-based analysis is key for renewable energy sources to reliably supply industry process heat and ultimately displace fossil fuels for decarbonization. The diversified industrial processes need case-by-case analysis and design. Therefore, an adaptive modeling tool is key for renewable power with energy storage to meet industry demands. Thus, a modeling tool to simulate a solar industry process heat system using the particle TES has been developed using the object-oriented equation-based language Modelica and the commercial platform of Modelon Impact. The Modelica-based software tool provides a general simulation environment for the design of reliable solar energy sources integrated with TES for various industrial process applications at different temperatures for economic competence with fossil fuels such as coal and natural gases. It uses both customized and standard component modeling modules in Modelon libraries for the flexibility to be adapted to a specific energy demand application. The particle TES system establishes a uniform energy supply platform with an efficient heat exchanger and particle thermal energy reservoir integrated with renewable powers. The particle TES system can provide a wide temperature range and can have a large storage temperature difference that increases storage energy density; therefore, it can be an adaptable energy storage system integrated with renewable power to supply 24/7 heat for industry decarbonization.

concentrated solar thermal↗

DOE OSTI2024

Reviewing Flexibility in Industrial Electrification: U.S. Green Ammonia and Steel Industries [Slides]

The renewable energy transition in the power sector involves a paradigm shift for flexibility. Supply flexibility faces new constraints due to the increased share of variable renewable resources. Increased demand flexibility can allow less use of peaking power plants and delay need for additional capacity and transmission. Industrial customers are larger on average than residential and commercial consumers and have typically provided the largest share of demand response in the United States. We consider industrial demand, studying characteristics of flexible industrial loads. We examine the dynamics of change occurring around industrial load flexibility by focusing on two case studies: green ammonia and steel production via electric arc furnaces. Electric arc furnace steel production is an important component of current demand response programs, whereas green ammonia and green fuels offer new paradigms for flexibility. We analyze the structure and functions of the technological innovation systems of load flexibility in those two industries via interviews with twenty-two stakeholders. We conclude that the technological innovation systems are not well-functioning for flexibility in EAF based steelmaking, but are in the green ammonia space. Explicit connections between scope two greenhouse gas emissions reporting and flexibility are lacking, and industry stakeholders do not appear to make a connection between decarbonization and load flexibility.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Tangible Solutions for Grid Operation Upgrade

Many countries worldwide are setting clean energy targets to decarbonize the energy sector and add higher wind and solar capacities. Given their distributed nature, variable renewable energy (VRE) assets can have unique grid integration considerations, and require grid operation practices to be modernized. When transitioning to higher renewable energy levels, many system operators configure a dedicated renewable energy desk to manage renewable energy resource operation in the system control center. Further, system operation planning is conducted with VRE and load forecasting to enable reliable real-time system operation. NREL has partnered with many system operators in the region to identify appropriate technology and grid modernization solutions. NREL and partners from system operators in the region will present on the challenges and some solutions that have been applied and share best practices such as energy management system upgrades, VRE forecasting framework, grid flexibility improvements, and staff training.

emerging economies↗

DOE OSTI2024

Electric Vehicles, Biofuels, and Transitions in Transportation Energy

The decarbonization of power sources for light duty transportation is moving towards the use of renewable energies, biofuels, and electric vehicles. Currently there are three major light transportation fuels: gasoline (US gasoline is 98% E10), biofuels (E85), and electricity. Currently fuel ethanol in biofuels is obtained principally from corn in the US and sugarcane in Brazil with a small amount from cellulose. The transition to alternative fuels has been occurring since 1980, although light transportation still relies on gasoline. The rise of battery electric vehicles (BEV) is now beginning to offset internal combustion engines (ICE), while recent advances in biotechnology and integrated plant design have enhanced the economic feasibility of cellulosic biofuels. This paper explores the potential role of these fuels in reducing the carbon footprint associated with light transportation. We compare three different cases: Gasoline, E85 and full electric based on the Argonne AFLEET tool to calculate generation of greenhouse gases due to manufacturing and operation of BEV and ICE cars, respectively, in the US assuming an average useful automobile life of 200,000 miles or 12 years. We concluded that significant liquid fuel use (both renewable and non-renewable) will continue for the next 50 years. Here, renewable liquid fuels have an important role to play as the transportation sector transitions from petroleum to other energy sources.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Transportation in net-zero emissions futures: Insights from the EMF-37 model intercomparison study

Transportation is currently the largest source of U.S. anthropogenic CO 2 emissions, at about a third of the total. Achieving net-zero emissions by mid-century will require substantial reductions in transportation emissions across passenger and freight travel. Here we leverage a model intercomparison study to explore the role of transportation in scenarios achieving net-zero economy-wide CO 2 emissions by 2050. We find the transport sector is poised to play the most significant role in reducing demand-side emissions, mostly driven by technology substitution, as modeling results suggest a limited role for mode shifting and for reduced use of personal car travel in the U.S. Among various technology solutions, models show agreement that passenger on-road vehicles will largely transition to electric vehicles (EVs), while solutions to decarbonize heavier travel modes are more diverse and include greater use of liquid biofuels and hydrogen. Research should continue to investigate the evolution of on-road electrification, the role of biofuels and hydrogen across heavier travel modes, and the role of mode shifting and travel behavior change to support personal transportation decarbonization at national and regional scales to temper the rapid growth in clean fuel and electricity demand.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Power market models for the clean energy transition: State of the art and future research needs

As power systems around the world are rapidly evolving to achieve decarbonization objectives, it is crucial that power system planners and operators use appropriate models and tools to analyze and address the associated challenges. This paper provides a detailed overview of the properties of power market models in the context of the clean energy transition. We review common power market model methodologies, their readiness for low- and zero-carbon grids, and new power market trends. Based on the review, we suggest model improvements and new designs to increase modeling capabilities for future grids. The paper highlights key modeling concepts related to power system flexibility, with a particular focus on hydropower and energy storage, as well as the representation of grid services, price formation, temporal structure, and the importance of uncertainty. We find that a changing resource mix, market restructuring, and growing price uncertainty require more precise modeling techniques to adequately capture the new technology constraints and the dynamics of future power markets. In particular, models must adequately represent resource opportunity costs, multi-horizon flexibility, and energy storage capabilities across the full range of grid services. Moreover, at the system level, it is increasingly important to consider sub-hourly time resolution, enhanced uncertainty representation, and introduce co-optimization for dual market clearing of energy and grid services. Likewise, models should capture interdependencies between multiple energy carriers and demand sectors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Life cycle assessment of co-firing biomass at coal-fired power plants with carbon capture and storage toward net-zero emissions

Co-firing biomass with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) offers a technological option to decarbonize coal-fired power plants toward net-zero emissions. This study estimates the life cycle emissions of co-firing biomass at coal-fired power plants with CCS and quantifies its variability and uncertainty. Deployment of co-firing BECCS at coal-fired power plants can significantly reduce the life cycle emissions toward the net-zero target but lower the power plant performance, which vary with numerous factors, including coal type, biomass type, co-firing level, and CO 2 capture rate. The breakeven co-firing levels required for biomass at coal-fired power plants with 90 % CO 2 capture to reach net-zero emissions fall with a range roughly from 15 % to 25 % on an energy basis, depending on coal and biomass types. Increasing the CO 2 capture rate from 90 % to 95 % can lower the breakeven co-firing levels by about 5 to 8 percentage points for the biomass resources of interest, which can lower reliance on biomass resources and facilitate large-scale deployment of co-firing BECCS in fossil-rich regions but with limited biomass resources. Furthermore, findings improve the understanding of the techno-environmental performance of co-firing BECCS and inform strategic planning decisions on net-zero emissions in the coal-fired power sector.

Breakeven co-firing level↗

DOE OSTI2023

Reviewing flexibility in industrial electrification: Focusing on green ammonia and steel in the United States

The renewable energy transition in the power sector involves a paradigm shift for flexibility. Flexible demand is more attainable than before, while supply flexibility faces new constraints due to the increased share of variable renewable resources. Increased demand flexibility can allow less use of peaking power plants and avoid need for additional capacity. Industrial flexibility could be especially interesting in this regard, as industrial customers are larger on average than other customers and have typically provided the largest share of demand response in the United States. We consider industrial demand, studying characteristics of flexible industrial loads. We then examine the dynamics of change occurring around industrial load flexibility by focusing on two case studies: green ammonia and steel production via electric arc furnaces. Electric arc furnace steel production is an important component of current demand response programs, whereas green ammonia and green fuels offer new paradigms for flexibility. We analyze the structure and functions of the technological innovation systems of load flexibility in those two industries via interviews with twenty-two stakeholders. Here, we conclude that in the United States these technological innovation systems are not well-functioning for industry in general or for steel, but do seem to be present for green ammonia. Additionally, explicit connections between scope two greenhouse gas emissions (those from purchased energy) and flexibility are lacking, and likewise industry stakeholders do not appear to make a connection between decarbonization and load flexibility, thus flexible demand is not viewed as a tool in industrial decarbonization.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Solar photovoltaics is ready to power a sustainable future

Thanks to fast learning and sustained growth, solar photovoltaics (PV) is today a highly cost-competitive technology, ready to contribute substantially to CO 2 emissions mitigation. However, many scenarios assessing global decarbonization pathways, either based on integrated assessment models or partial-equilibrium models, fail to identify the key role that this technology could play, including far lower future PV capacity than that projected by the PV community. In this perspective, we review the factors that lie behind the historical cost reductions of solar PV and identify innovations in the pipeline that could contribute to maintaining a high learning rate. We also aim at opening a constructive discussion among PV experts, modelers, and policymakers regarding how to improve the representation of this technology in the models and how to ensure that manufacturing and installation of solar PV- can ramp up on time, which will be crucial to remain in a decarbonization path compatible with the Paris Agreement.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Energy consumption and charging load profiles from long-haul truck electrification in the United States

Abstract The urgent need to decarbonize the transportation sector combined with falling battery prices has spurred industry and policy interest in long-haul truck electrification. The charging behavior and resulting loads from electrified long-haul freight trucks are crucial for the smooth operation of the electric grid and have far-reaching environmental impacts (e.g., greenhouse gas and other air pollutant emissions). However, the aggregate energy impact of a fleetwide shift to electrified long-haul freight trucking has not been explored. This study combines electric truck design scenarios, bottom-up truck weight modeling, vehicle energy modeling, large-scale truck traffic data, and simulation of likely operation and charging behaviors to estimate end-use energy consumption and location-specific hourly charging loads for a national fleet of long-haul electric trucks. Relative to a fleet of future diesel trucks, electrification would reduce direct end-use energy consumption by 0.9 × 10 18 J (0.9 quadrillion BTU), but electrification might increase life cycle energy consumption depending on the electricity source. The electricity required to charge long-haul electric trucks is equivalent to five percent of annual electricity consumption in the United States (US). The simulated truck charging loads peak during the day across the US grid regions, but the charging peaks’ exact timing is sensitive to when trucks are dispatched for operation. The load shapes suggest that electric trucks’ charging loads can coincide with peaks in solar power generation, and planning could enable on- or off-site integration between truck charging stations and renewable electricity generation.

Tong, Fan (ORCID:0000000346613956)↗