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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Climate Change Risks to Freshwater Subsistence Fisheries in Arctic Alaska: Insights and Uncertainty from Broad Whitefish Coregonus nasus

Arctic freshwater ecosystems and fish populations are largely shaped by seasonal and long-term watershed hydrology. In this paper, we hypothesize how changing air temperature and precipitation will alter freeze and thaw processes, hydrology, and instream habitat to assess potential indirect effects, such as the change to the foraging and behavioral ecology, on Arctic fishes, using Broad Whitefish Coregonus nasus as an indicator species. Climate change is expected to continue to alter hydrologic pathways, flow regimes, and, therefore, habitat suitability, connectivity, and availability for fishes. Warming and lengthening of the growing season will likely increase fish growth rates; however, the exceedance of threshold stream temperatures will likely increase physiological stress and alter life histories. We expect these changes to have mixed effects on Arctic subsistence fishes and fisheries. Management and conservation approaches focused on preserving the processes that create heterogeneity in aquatic habitats, genes, and communities will help maintain the resilience of Broad Whitefish and other important subsistence fisheries. Long-term effects are uncertain, so filling scientific knowledge gaps, such as identifying important habitats or increasing knowledge of abiotic variables in priority watersheds, is key to understanding and potentially mitigating likely impacts to Arctic fishes in a rapidly changing landscape.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Developing a roadmap for carbon capture, and storage in Oklahoma by assessing the viability of stacked storage

Abstract The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concludes that CO 2 capture and storage (CCS) is critical for climate‐stabilizing energy transitions. In CCS, captured CO 2 is sequestered in saline aquifers within sedimentary basins. The CO 2 storage capacity and the rate of injection are functions of the geology of the saline aquifer, which is uncertain. To minimize impacts of this uncertainty, CCS projects could include backup plans, such as co‐locating geologic CO 2 storage (GCS) sites with or near existing CO 2 ‐enhanced oil recovery (CO 2 ‐EOR) operations. These “stacked storage” projects could hedge against uncertainty in the saline formation performance because captured CO 2 could be injected into either location in the event of unexpected events (e.g., the injectivity decreases). Here, we investigate the possibility and ramifications of developing CCS networks in Oklahoma that are amendable to stacked storage. We find that stacked storage is possible in Oklahoma but the counties with the lowest‐cost saline storage resources do not have existing CO 2 ‐EOR operations. At the systems level, we find it is slightly more expensive (e.g., $1/tCO 2 to $5/tCO 2 ) to site GCS in counties with CO 2 ‐EOR projects. This increased expense is largely due to increased CO 2 transportation costs because hundreds of km of additional pipeline is required to capture CO 2 from the lowest‐cost sources. Overall, our results suggest that it is optimal to build more pipelines and avoid injecting CO 2 in some of the lowest‐cost saline storage resources, to enable capturing CO 2 from the least‐cost sources. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enterprise: Exploration of Concepts, Perspectives and Implications for Systems Engineering

The purpose of this paper is to explore the concept of ‘enterprise’ in the context of Systems Engineering (SE). The term ‘enterprise’ has been used extensively to generally describe large complex entities that have an extensive scope of operations. However, a deeper examination of ‘enterprise’ significance for SE can provide insights as our challenges continue with increasingly complex, uncertain, ambiguous, and integrated entities struggling to thrive in the future. The paper explores three central topics. First, the concept of enterprise is introduced as a central aspect of the future focus for SE, as recognized in the INCOSE SE Vision 2035. Second, a more detailed examination of the enterprise concept is developed in relationship to SE. The thrust of this examination is to understand the nature and role of ‘enterprise’ across a broad spectrum of literature and knowledge, ultimately providing a more informed perspective of enterprise for SE. As part of this exploration, a bibliometric analysis of the term ‘enterprise’ is performed. This exploration extracts key themes (clusters) in the ‘enterprise’ literature. Third, challenges for further development and inculcation of ‘enterprise’ within the SE discipline and support for realization of the SE 2035 Vision are suggested. These challenges point out the need to ‘think differently’ about ‘enterprise’ within the SE context. ‘Enterprise’ is proposed as a central, albeit different, perspective for the SE discipline. Finally, the paper closes with a first–generation perspective for ‘enterprise’ in pursuit of the SE Vision 2035.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Assessment of rainfall variability and future change in Brazil across multiple timescales

Abstract Rainfall variability change under global warming is a crucial issue that may have a substantial impact on society and the environment, as it can directly impact biodiversity, agriculture, and water resources. Observed precipitation trends and climate change projections over Brazil indicate that many sectors of society are potentially highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The purpose of this study is to assess model projections of the change in rainfall variability at various temporal scales over sub‐regions of Brazil. For this, daily data from 30 CMIP5 models for historical (1900–2005) and future (2050–2100) experiments under a high‐emission scenario are used. We assess the change in precipitation variability, applying a band‐pass filter to isolate variability on daily, weekly, monthly, intra‐seasonal, and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) time scales. For historical climate, simulated precipitation is evaluated against observations to establish model reliability. The results show that models largely agree on increases in variability on all timescales in all sub‐regions, except on ENSO timescales where models do not agree on the sign of future change. Brazil will experience more rainfall variability in the future that is, drier or more frequent dry periods and wetter wet periods on daily, weekly, monthly, and intra‐seasonal timescales, even in sub‐regions where future changes in mean rainfall are currently uncertain. This may provide useful information for climate change adaptation across, for example, the agriculture and water resource sectors in Brazil.

Alves, Lincoln M.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainty analysis of correlated parameters in automated reaction mechanism generation

Abstract Uncertainty analysis is a useful tool for inspecting and improving detailed kinetic mechanisms because it can identify the greatest sources of model output error. Owing to the very nonlinear relationship between kinetic and thermodynamic parameters and computed concentrations, model predictions can be extremely sensitive to uncertainties in some parameters while uncertainties in other parameters can be irrelevant. Error propagation becomes even more convoluted in automatically generated kinetic models, where input uncertainties are correlated through kinetic rate rules and thermodynamic group values. Local and global uncertainty analyses were implemented and used to analyze error propagation in Reaction Mechanism Generator (RMG), an open‐source software for generating kinetic models. A framework for automatically assigning parameter uncertainties to estimated thermodynamics and kinetics was created, enabling tracking of correlated uncertainties. Local first‐order uncertainty propagation was implemented using sensitivities computed natively within RMG. Global uncertainty analysis was implemented using adaptive Smolyak pseudospectral approximations as implemented in the MIT Uncertainty Quantification Library to efficiently compute and construct polynomial chaos expansions to approximate the dependence of outputs on a subset of uncertain inputs. Cantera was used as a backend for simulating the reactor system in the global analysis. Analyses were performed for a phenyldodecane pyrolysis model. Local and global methods demonstrated similar trends; however, many uncertainties were significantly overestimated by the local analysis. Both local and global analyses show that correlated uncertainties based on kinetic rate rules and thermochemical groups drastically reduce a model's degrees of freedom and have a large impact on the determination of the most influential input parameters. These results highlight the necessity of incorporating uncertainty analysis in the mechanism generation workflow.

Gao, Connie W.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Biogeochemical control points of connectivity between a tidal creek and its floodplain

As global climates shift, coastal systems experience changes that alter function within the tidal zone. However, it remains uncertain how changes in tidal extent and magnitude will alter coastal biogeochemical cycling. We present high-frequency data collected in-situ along two transects across a tidal creek and floodplain to capture how changes in vertical and lateral connectivity act as biogeochemical control points. Using wavelet analysis, we identified short periods of strong vertical connectivity during spring tides followed by extended periods of floodplain isolation from tides. During a drier period, neap tides were linked to lateral creek-floodplain connectivity, detected by discharge of saline, oxygen-depleted groundwater to the creek on ebb tides. We estimate up to half of creek water throughout the tidal cycle was associated with floodplain drainage. From point measurements of carbon, nitrogen, and greenhouse gases along the creek-floodplain transect, we infer that lateral connectivity functions as a biogeochemically significant control point.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Summertime methane and carbon dioxide emission rates and associated variables from a national‐scale survey of 146 reservoirs in the United States

Reservoirs are globally important sources of greenhouse gases, but the magnitude of their emissions is highly uncertain. Here, we present data for 146 reservoirs from two surveys of reservoir methane and carbon dioxide emissions, one at the regional scale in the midwestern United States and one at the national scale in the United States, plus data from two hand‐picked sites in Washington and Puerto Rico. At all reservoirs, ebullitive and diffusive emissions and basic physicochemistry were measured at 15–55 locations during one 22 to 64‐h period during the summers of 2016–2023, with four reservoirs revisited a second time. Contemporaneous water chemistry measurements were made at one or two locations in each reservoir. The dataset consists of two geospatial files and seven CSV files containing greenhouse gas emissions, water chemistry, morphology, and other relevant data. To date, these data comprise the largest multi‐reservoir emissions dataset assembled using consistent measurement methods.

Beaulieu, Jake J. [US Environmental Protection Age↗
DOE OSTI2026

Seasonal variation in methane ebullition in a temperate hydropower reservoir impacts annualized estimates

Estimates of ebullitive methane (CH4) emissions from reservoirs are highly uncertain, often based on spatial and temporal upscaling from a limited number of sampling sites and periods. While some of these estimates may adjust for seasonal variation in temperature, they rarely account for drawdown and the resulting changes in site depth and the areal extent of the reservoir. In Douglas Reservoir (Tennessee, USA), we conducted monthly sampling of 20 sites over 1 year to capture temporal and spatial variation in CH4 ebullition. We then compared various approaches for obtaining annualized, whole-reservoir ebullition estimates. CH4 ebullition fluxes were zero-inflated and highly skewed, with fluxes rising appreciably above zero in July and peaking in autumn. Estimates that did not account for drawdown overestimated annualized rates by 20%, though with high uncertainty. Seasonal variability and hotspots strongly influence annualized ebullition estimates and are important to account for in inventories and global upscaling.

Cardall, Anna [Brigham Young University]↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating Cryo–TEM Reconstruction Accuracy of Self–Assembled Polymer Nanostructures

Cryogenic transmission electron microscopy (cryo–TEM) combined with single particle analysis (SPA) is an emerging imaging approach for soft materials. However, the accuracy of SPA–reconstructed nanostructures, particularly those formed by synthetic polymers, remains uncertain due to potential packing heterogeneity of the nanostructures. In this study, the combination of molecular dynamics (MD) simulations and image simulations is utilized to validate the accuracy of cryo–TEM 3D reconstructions of self–assembled polypeptoid fibril nanostructures. Using CryoSPARC software, image simulations, 2D classifications, ab initio reconstructions, and homogenous refinements are performed. By comparing the results with atomic models, the recovery of molecular details is assessed, heterogeneous structures are identified, and the influence of extraction location on the reconstructions is evaluated. In conclusion, these findings confirm the fidelity of single particle analysis in accurately resolving complex structural characteristics and heterogeneous structures, exhibiting its potential as a valuable tool for detailed structural analysis of synthetic polymers and soft materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Estimating posterior quantity of interest expectations in a multilevel scalable framework

Scalable approaches for uncertainty quantification are necessary for characterizing prediction confidence in large-scale subsurface flow simulations with uncertain permeability. To this end we explore a multilevel Monte Carlo approach for estimating posterior moments of a particular quantity of interest, where we employ an element-agglomerated algebraic multigrid (AMG) technique to generate the hierarchy of coarse spaces with guaranteed approximation properties for both the generation of spatially correlated random fields and the forward simulation of Darcy's law to model subsurface flow. In both these components (sampling and forward solves), we exploit solvers that rely on state-of-the-art scalable AMG. To illustrate the applicability of this approach, numerical tests are performed on two 3D examples-a unit cube and an egg-shaped domain with an irregular boundary-where the scalability of each simulation as well as the scalability of the overall algorithm are demonstrated.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Grassmannian diffusion maps based surrogate modeling via geometric harmonics

Abstract A novel surrogate model based on the Grassmannian diffusion maps (GDMaps) and utilizing geometric harmonics (GH) is developed for predicting the response of complex physical phenomena. The method utilizes GDMaps to obtain a low‐dimensional representation of the underlying behavior of physical/mathematical systems with respect to uncertain input parameters. Using this representation, GH, an out‐of‐sample extension technique, is employed to create a global map from the input parameter space to a Grassmannian diffusion manifold. GH is further employed to locally map points on the diffusion manifold onto the tangent space of a Grassmann manifold. The exponential map is then used to project the points in the tangent space onto the Grassmann manifold, where reconstruction of the full solution is performed. The performance of the proposed surrogate model is verified with three examples. The first problem is a toy example used to illustrate the technique. In the second example, errors associated with the various mappings are assessed by studying response predictions of the electric potential of a dielectric cylinder in a homogeneous electric field. The last example applies the method for uncertainty prediction in the strain field evolution in a model amorphous material using the shear transformation zone theory of plasticity.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Anthromes and forest carbon responses to global change

Human effects on ecosystems date back thousands of years, and anthropogenic biomes—anthromes—broadly incorporate the effects of human population density and land use on ecosystems. Forests are integral to the global carbon cycle, containing large biomass carbon stocks, yet their responses to land use and climate change are uncertain but critical to informing climate change mitigation strategies, ecosystem management, and Earth system modeling. Using an anthromes perspective and the site locations from the Global Forest Carbon (ForC) Database, we compare intensively used, cultured, and wildland forest lands in tropical and extratropical regions. We summarize recent past (1900-present) patterns of land use intensification, and we use a feedback analysis of Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 to estimate the sensitivity of forest carbon stocks to CO 2 and temperature change for different anthromes among regions. Modeled global forest carbon stock responses are positive for CO 2 increase but neutral to negative for temperature increase. Across anthromes (intensively used, cultured, and wildland forest areas), modeled forest carbon stock responses of temperate and boreal forests are less variable than those of tropical forests. Tropical wildland forest areas appear especially sensitive to CO 2 and temperature change, with the negative temperature response highlighting the potential vulnerability of the globally significant carbon stock in tropical forests. The net effect of anthropogenic activities—including land-use intensification and environmental change and their interactions with natural forest dynamics—will shape future forest carbon stock changes. These interactive effects will likely be strongest in tropical wildlands.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Process-oriented stochastic perturbations applied to the parametrization of turbulence and shallow convection for ensemble prediction

Weather forecasting nowadays often requires some estimation of uncertainties associated with the output of meteorological models, in order to better inform decision making, especially in the context of intense weather events. Ensemble prediction systems provide such information through sets of possible scenarios which are designed to represent various uncertainty sources, including model uncertainties. A wide variety of methods have been proposed to estimate model uncertainties, among which perturbation methods targeting uncertain processes are a promising research field. Here, we focus on the representation of small-scale variability by process-oriented perturbation schemes applied to two key physical processes, namely turbulence and shallow convection. The perturbations are applied to a single-column version of the convection-permitting AROME model, in three idealized boundary-layer cases. Large-eddy simulations (LESs) of the same cases serve as a reference for the subgrid variability that has to be represented, and the results are also compared to those given by the Stochastically Perturbed Parametrization Tendencies (SPPT) method, which is a method commonly used by weather forecast centres to represent model uncertainty. The spread produced by our process-oriented perturbations of turbulence and shallow convection does not represent all the small-scale variability implied by the LESs for temperature and humidity. However, it is of a similar order of magnitude for the wind, thanks to perturbations generated by the stochastic turbulence scheme. The dispersion is structurally different from what is obtained with SPPT. It is non-negligible in the lower levels, where SPPT perturbations are usually suppressed because of numerical instabilities, indicating a possible complementarity between the schemes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Decision-making Framework to Support the End-of-Life Management of High-Activity Radioactive Sources

Sealed radioactive sources are used for an extremely wide range of purposes, including as radiation sources in various nuclear facilities, universities, hospitals, biomedical and industrial applications, as well as for geological prospecting and exploration. The proper management of these sealed radioactive sources once they have reached their end-of-life is still a global challenge. Very few field-tested Mobile Hot Cells (MHC) exist in the world to support the end-of-life management of disused high-activity radioactive sources. One of the critical challenges that a source recovery team encounters on each site is to find adequate space, and access to that space to complete the staging and recapture process with a MHC; this process is tedious, uncertain, and time-consuming. Therefore, it is essential to understand the planning and management of the MHC setup and takedown. Currently, there isn't an single capable planning tool that will provide an effective medium to plan, inform, educate, and communicate knowledge about the environment where the MHC will be deployed. We present a novel approach for the planning and management of the deployment of the MHC to several different sites that relies on technology. Furthermore, this planning tool will support collaboration, promote information sharing, and foster better decision making processes, resulting in a more efficient, and reliable setup and source recovery with the MHC.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integrating Aquatic Metabolism and Net Ecosystem CO2 Balance in Short- and Long-Hydroperiod Subtropical Freshwater Wetlands

Abstract How aquatic primary productivity influences the carbon (C) sequestering capacity of wetlands is uncertain. We evaluated the magnitude and variability in aquatic C dynamics and compared them to net ecosystem CO 2 exchange (NEE) and ecosystem respiration ( R eco ) rates within calcareous freshwater wetlands in Everglades National Park. We continuously recorded 30-min measurements of dissolved oxygen (DO), water level, water temperature ( T water ), and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). These measurements were coupled with ecosystem CO 2 fluxes over 5 years (2012–2016) in a long-hydroperiod peat-rich, freshwater marsh and a short-hydroperiod, freshwater marl prairie. Daily net aquatic primary productivity (NAPP) rates indicated both wetlands were generally net heterotrophic. Gross aquatic primary productivity (GAPP) ranged from 0 to − 6.3 g C m −2 day −1 and aquatic respiration ( R Aq ) from 0 to 6.13 g C m −2 day −1 . Nonlinear interactions between water level, T water , and GAPP and R Aq resulted in high variability in NAPP that contributed to NEE. Net aquatic primary productivity accounted for 4–5% of the deviance explained in NEE rates. With respect to the flux magnitude, daily NAPP was a greater proportion of daily NEE at the long-hydroperiod site (mean = 95%) compared to the short-hydroperiod site (mean = 64%). Although we have confirmed the significant contribution of NAPP to NEE in both long- and short-hydroperiod freshwater wetlands, the decoupling of the aquatic and ecosystem fluxes could largely depend on emergent vegetation, the carbonate cycle, and the lateral C flux.

Malone, Sparkle L.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Groundwater characterization and monitoring at a complex industrial waste site using electrical resistivity imaging

A contaminated industrial waste site in Washington State (USA) containing buried, metallic-waste storage tanks, pipes, and wells, was evaluated to determine the feasibility of monitoring groundwater remediation activities associated with an underlying perched aquifer system using electrical resistivity tomography. The perched aquifer, located ~65 m below ground surface and ~10 m above the regional water table, contains high concentrations of nitrate, uranium, and other contaminants of concern from past tank leaks and intentional releases of wastes to surface disposal sites. The extent of the perched water aquifer is not well known, and the effectiveness of groundwater extraction for contaminant removal is uncertain, so supplemental characterization and monitoring technologies are being evaluated. Numerical simulations of subsurface flow and contaminant transport were performed with a highly resolved model of the hydrogeologic system and waste site infrastructure, and these simulations were used as the physical basis for electrical resistivity tomography modeling. The modeling explicitly accounted for metallic infrastructure at the site. The effectiveness of using surface electrodes versus surface and horizontal subsurface electrodes, for imaging groundwater extraction from the perched water aquifer, was investigated. Although directional drilling is a mature technology, its use for electrode emplacement in the deep subsurface under a complex industrial waste site via horizontal wells has not yet been demonstrated. Results from this study indicate that using horizontal subsurface electrode arrays could significantly improve the ability of electrical resistivity tomography to image deep subsurface features and monitor remediation activities under complex industrial waste sites.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multistage distributionally robust mixed-integer programming with decision-dependent moment-based ambiguity sets

We study multistage distributionally robust mixed-integer programs under endogenous uncertainty, where the probability distribution of stage-wise uncertainty depends on the decisions made in previous stages. We first consider two ambiguity sets defined by decision-dependent bounds on the first and second moments of uncertain parameters and by mean and covariance matrix that exactly match decision-dependent empirical ones, respectively. For both sets, we show that the subproblem in each stage can be recast as a mixed-integer linear program (MILP). Moreover, we extend the general moment-based ambiguity set in to the multistage decision-dependent setting, and derive mixed-integer semidefinite programming (MISDP) reformulations of stage-wise subproblems. We develop methods for attaining lower and upper bounds of the optimal objective value of the multistage MISDPs, and approximate them using a series of MILPs. We deploy the Stochastic Dual Dynamic integer Programming (SDDiP) method for solving the problem under the three ambiguity sets with risk-neutral or risk-averse objective functions, and conduct numerical studies on multistage facility-location instances having diverse sizes under different parameter and uncertainty settings. Furthermore, our results show that the SDDiP quickly finds optimal solutions for moderate-sized instances under the first two ambiguity sets, and also finds good approximate bounds for the multistage MISDPs derived under the third ambiguity set. We also demonstrate the efficacy of incorporating decision-dependent distributional ambiguity in multistage decision-making processes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

A primal–dual algorithm for risk minimization

In this paper, we develop an algorithm to efficiently solve risk-averse optimization problems posed in reflexive Banach space. Such problems often arise in many practical applications as, e.g., optimization problems constrained by partial differential equations with uncertain inputs. Unfortunately, for many popular risk models including the coherent risk measures, the resulting risk-averse objective function is nonsmooth. Here, this lack of differentiability complicates the numerical approximation of the objective function as well as the numerical solution of the optimization problem. To address these challenges, we propose a primal–dual algorithm for solving large-scale nonsmooth risk-averse optimization problems. This algorithm is motivated by the classical method of multipliers and by epigraphical regularization of risk measures. As a result, the algorithm solves a sequence of smooth optimization problems using derivative-based methods. We prove convergence of the algorithm even when the subproblems are solved inexactly and conclude with numerical examples demonstrating the efficiency of our method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗