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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12

Capturing Inter-Annual Variability of PV Energy Production in South Asia

Long-term variability of solar resource is an important factor in planning a utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) generation plant, and annual generation for a given location can vary significantly from year to year. Based on multiple years of solar irradiance data, an exceedance probability is the amount of energy that could potentially be produced by a power plant in any given year. An exceedance probability accounts for long-term variability and climate cycles (e.g., monsoons or changes in aerosols), which ultimately impact PV energy generation. Study results indicate that a significant bias could be associated with relying solely on typical meteorological year (TMY) resource data to capture long-term variability. While the TMY tends to under-predict annual generation overall compared to the P50, there appear to be pockets of over-prediction as well.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Analysis of the Effects of a Flexible Ramping Ancillary Service Product on Power System Operations: Preprint

The recent increased interest in utilizing variable generation (VG) resources such as wind and solar in power systems has motivated investigations into new operating procedures. Although these resources provide desirable value to a system (e.g., no fuel costs or emissions), interconnecting them provides unique challenges. Their variable, non-controllable nature in particular requires significant attention, because it directly results in increased power system variability and uncertainty. One way to handle this is via new operating reserve schemes. Operating reserves provide upward and downward generation and ramping capacity to counteract uncertainty and variability prior to their realization. For instance, uncertainty and variability in real-time dispatch can be accounted for in the hour-ahead unit commitment. New operating reserve methodologies that specifically account for the increased variability and uncertainty caused by VG are currently being investigated and developed by academia and industry. This paper examines one method inspired by the new operating reserve product being proposed by the California Independent System Operator. The method is based on examining the potential ramping requirements at any given time and enforcing those requirements via a reserve demand curve in the market-clearing optimization as an additional ancillary service product.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Demand Response in Bangalore: Implications for Electricity System Operations

Recent Greening the Grid studies for India highlight the benefits of flexible resources for integrating variable renewable energy onto India’s electricity system. India’s ambitious renewable energy targets, which are particularly focused on renewable resource states such as Karnataka, will face fewer challenges when combined with new planning and operational strategies and technologies. This report explores one such strategy - demand response - by which the system operator shifts load throughout a day to minimize system wide production costs. To explore this strategy, we added demand response resources to Karnataka’s electricity system in a production cost model of India, using load shifting potential analyzed by Lawrence Berkeley National Labs. We then investigated the impacts of increasing demand response capacity under several renewable resource scenarios. Our results show the addition of demand response enables fuel shifting from high-marginal-cost and emissions-intensive subcritical coal and diesel generation to zero-marginal-cost and emissions-free renewable generation. Accordingly, the value that demand response provides to the system increases as the renewable penetration increases. In addition to reducing production costs and emissions, demand response reduces the time that thermal generators spend at their minimum output levels, which typically represents a less efficient and costlier operational state. Agricultural load shifting provides greater value to the system than residential, commercial, or industrial loads. Agricultural demand response is more flexible than other sectors because it is not exposed to subdaily operational constraints and it can operate for more hours per day without impacting customer satisfaction. Further, the first increment of demand response that is added to a system provides the greatest value; further additions provide additional benefits but have a decreasing impact. The insights we discuss could be leveraged by system planners and operators in other jurisdictions, particularly those facing significant renewable energy penetrations, to develop their own demand response programs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Dynamic security assessment of systems powered only by grid-forming power plants with uncertain dispatch using polynomial vectors

A modern challenge in power engineering is to perform the dynamic security assessment (DSA) of grids that are 100% powered by inverter-based resources (IBRs). Addressing this challenge is difficult because: (i) the dispatch of IBRs can be uncertain as a result of the variability of renewable resources and (ii) they have hard current control limits that cannot be neglected, contrasting synchronous machines. To address this problem, this paper sets forth a framework to conduct DSA of bulk power systems that are 100% powered by grid-forming IBRs. Furthermore, the framework considers that IBR operational conditions are unknown but bounded by a zonotope which is also expressed as a polynomial vector for uncertainty propagation via Dormand–Prince integration. The framework is applied to modified versions of the WSCC 9-bus and IEEE 39-bus grids.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Role of Concentrating Solar Power in Integrating Solar and Wind Energy: Preprint

As wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) increase in penetration it is increasingly important to examine enabling technologies that can help integrate these resources at large scale. Concentrating solar power (CSP) when deployed with thermal energy storage (TES) can provide multiple services that can help integrate variable generation (VG) resources such as wind and PV. CSP with TES can provide firm, highly flexible capacity, reducing minimum generation constraints which limit penetration and results in curtailment. By acting as an enabling technology, CSP can complement PV and wind, substantially increasing their penetration in locations with adequate solar resource.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Data Analytics Methods to Measure Plant Outage Resilience

Every 18 or 24 months nuclear power plants (depending on plant configuration, pressurized or boiling water reactor respectively) undergo a period of outage where the plant is taken offline and a large number of maintenance and surveillance activities (that cannot be performed while plant is running) are performed in typically 2–3 weeks. Planning of a plant outage is very challenging since all the activities are required to be performed in the shortest amount of time given available resources (typically contractor crews hired for the duration of the outage). Consequently, plant outages can be costly due the actual loss of power generation and crew costs and, because of it, there is a need to maximize resource usage in the outage planning phase and reduce the risk of outage delays. This paper is addressing these needs by providing a set of analytical methods designed to analyze plant outage schedule and identify critical elements based on available resources (time and crews). These methods are based on natural language processing and optimization algorithms. In this respect, two classes of methods have been developed: one that focuses on the time resource and how variability in the time to complete outage tasks may impact outage delays, and one that minimizes the risk of outage delays by integrating available resources to assess when daily activities should be performed.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Incentivizing Flexibility in System Operations

Defining flexibility has been a challenge that a number of industry members and researchers have attempted to address in recent years. With increased variability and uncertainty of variable generation (VG), the resources on the system will have to be more flexible to adjust output, so that power output ranges, power ramp rates, and energy duration sustainability are sufficient to meet the needs of balancing supply with demand at various operational timescales. This chapter discusses whether existing market designs provide adequate incentives for resources to offer their flexibility into the market to meet the increased levels of variability and uncertainty introduced by VG in the short-term operational time frame. It presents a definition of flexibility and discusses how increased levels of VG require increased needs for flexibility on power systems. Following this introductory material, the chapter examines how existing market designs ensure that resources have the right incentives to provide increased flexibility, and then discusses a number of emerging market design elements that impact flexibility incentives.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Analysis of Variability and Uncertainty in Wind Power Forecasting: An International Comparison: Preprint

One of the critical challenges of wind power integration is the variable and uncertain nature of the resource. This paper investigates the variability and uncertainty in wind forecasting for multiple power systems in six countries. An extensive comparison of wind forecasting is performed among the six power systems by analyzing the following scenarios: (i) wind forecast errors throughout a year; (ii) forecast errors at a specific time of day throughout a year; (iii) forecast errors at peak and off-peak hours of a day; (iv) forecast errors in different seasons; (v) extreme forecasts with large overforecast or underforecast errors; and (vi) forecast errors when wind power generation is at different percentages of the total wind capacity. The kernel density estimation method is adopted to characterize the distribution of forecast errors. The results show that the level of uncertainty and the forecast error distribution vary among different power systems and scenarios. In addition, for most power systems, (i) there is a tendency to underforecast in winter; and (ii) the forecasts in winter generally have more uncertainty than the forecasts in summer.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Toward Mixed Analog-Digital Quantum Signal Processing: Quantum AD/DA Conversion and the Fourier Transform

Signal processing stands as a pillar of classical computation and modern information technology, applicable to both analog and digital signals. Recently, advancements in quantum information science have suggested that quantum signal processing (QSP) can enable more powerful signal processing capabilities. However, the developments in QSP have primarily leveraged digital quantum resources, such as discrete-variable (DV) systems like qubits, rather than analog quantum resources, such as continuous-variable (CV) systems like quantum oscillators. Consequently, there remains a gap in understanding how signal processing can be performed on hybrid CV-DV quantum computers. Here we address this gap by developing a new paradigm of mixed analog-digital QSP. We demonstrate the utility of this paradigm by showcasing how it naturally enables analog-digital conversion of quantum signals—specifically, the transfer of states between DV and CV quantum systems. We then show that such quantum analog-digital conversion enables new implementations of quantum algorithms on CV-DV hardware. This is exemplified by realizing the quantum Fourier transform of a state encoded on qubits via the free-evolution of a quantum oscillator, albeit with a runtime exponential in the number of qubits due to information theoretic arguments. Collectively, this work marks a significant step forward in hybrid CV-DV quantum computation, providing a foundation for scalable analog-digital signal processing on quantum processors.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Sources of biomass feedstock variability and the potential impact on biofuels production

In this study, terrestrial lignocellulosic biomass has the potential to be a carbon neutral and domestic source of fuels and chemicals. However, the innate variability of biomass resources, such as herbaceous and woody materials, and the inconsistency within a single resource due to disparate growth and harvesting conditions, presents challenges for downstream processes which often require materials that are physically and chemically consistent. Intrinsic biomass characteristics, including moisture content, carbohydrate and ash compositions, bulk density, and particle size/shape distributions are highly variable and can impact the economics of transforming biomass into value-added products. For instance, ash content increases by an order of magnitude between woody and herbaceous feedstocks (from ~0.5 to 5 %, respectively) while lignin content drops by a factor of two (from ~30 to 15 %, respectively). This increase in ash and reduction in lignin leads to biofuel conversion consequences, such as reduced pyrolysis oil yields for herbaceous products as compared to woody material. In this review, the sources of variability for key biomass characteristics are presented for multiple types of biomass. Additionally, this review investigates the major impacts of the variability in biomass composition on four conversion processes: fermentation, hydrothermal liquefaction, pyrolysis, and direct combustion. Finally, future research processes aimed at reducing the detrimental impacts of biomass variability on conversion to fuels and chemicals are proposed.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Capacity Markets for Transactive Energy Systems

Capacity markets provide important incentives for resource adequacy in electricity markets and may become more important for providing sufficient revenue and generation capacity with changes to energy market prices driven by increasing levels of zero marginal cost resources. However, current capacity market designs also have important shortfalls that may limit the benefits they can provide to the future grid. Current capacity markets are primarily designed for participation from conventional thermal generators, but markets are evolving with increasing levels of variable renewable energy resources. However, further reforms may be necessary to enable more participation from DERs and demand-side resources. To understand the benefits and shortfalls of current capacity market design, we review the historical reasons electricity markets have needed capacity markets or capacity payments for resource adequacy, and how current capacity market designs may create challenges for incorporating increasing levels of DERs and demand-side resources. We then consider how transactive systems, which allow the coordination of bids and offers for DERs and demand-side resources through a market interaction approach, administered by a Distribution System Operator (DSO), can address traditional resource adequacy problems due to inelastic consumer demand. We also consider the need for a DSO-level capacity market in helping to meet resource adequacy, reliability, and other electricity market objectives. We find that because the missing money in electricity markets is largely driven by incentives to meet resource adequacy goals, and the bulk grid would always supply power to the DSO, that resource adequacy is unlikely to be a determining factor in the need for a DSO-level capacity market. Many current reliability problems could also be addressed by the incorporation of more flexible demand enabled with transactive energy systems. However, other DSO objectives, including resilience, reactive power, voltage control, environmental policies, and energy equity could lead to specific challenges that could be aided by a DSO-level capacity market. We consider the possibility of a DSO-level capacity market in addressing these challenges as well as its potential role in coordinating with the Independent System Operator (ISO) who operates the wholesale market. We conclude with suggestions for future research, including the need to develop analytical models of DSO-level capacity market designs to address these potential objectives and examine their implications for DSOs and consumers.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Introduction to the Special Section on Control and Management of Electric Power Systems With High Shares of Inverter-Based Resources

The growing interest in the integration of variable renewable energy (VRE) and distributed energy resources (DER) on both policy and economic grounds is driving the transformation of electric power systems. The significant deployment of VRE and DER can effectively displace the conventional synchronous generator-based power plants that for decades have been the foundation for power system generation and stability in electric power systems. Inverter-based resources (IBRs) introduce a high-level of uncertainty, variability, and complexity into the operation of electric power networks, and the transformation to IBRs raises a wide range of technical questions and operational challenges. The optimal coordination and control of these resources requires greater interoperability and necessitates significant upgrades of grid automation, including real-time monitoring.

distributed power generation↗

Using Electric Vehicles to Mitigate Imbalance Requirements Associated with an Increased Penetration of Wind Generation

The integration of variable renewable generation sources continues to be a significant area of focus for power system planning. Renewable portfolio standards and initiatives to reduce the dependency on foreign energy sources drive much of the deployment. Unfortunately, renewable energy generation sources like wind and solar tend to be highly variable in nature. To counter the energy imbalance caused by this variability, wind generation often requires additional balancing resources to compensate for the variability in the electricity production. With the expected electrification of transportation, electric vehicles may offer a new load resource for meeting all, or part, of the imbalance created by the renewable generation. This paper investigates a regulation-services-based battery charging method on a population of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles to meet the power imbalance requirements associated with the introduction of 11 GW of additional wind generation into the Northwest Power Pool. It quantifies the number of vehicles required to meet the imbalance requirements under various charging assumptions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Unleashing the Frequency: Multi-Megawatt Demonstration of 100% Renewable Power Systems with Decentralized Communication-Less Control Scheme

Power systems, which range in size from small microgrids to island systems to large regional grids, are typically managed by a central controller that requires complex communication methods and can be unreliable and pose cyber security risks in certain applications, especially when controlling a larger number of nodes. We propose an inherently robust, scalable method of integration using multiple energy storage systems and distributed energy resources, which does not require any means of dedicated communication. This method moves beyond the paradigm of controlling grid frequency at a fixed value (e.g., 60 Hz), instead allowing the frequency to fluctuate within certain limits (e.g., 59.6-60.4 Hz). With a greater operating range, the frequency can carry necessary information from energy storage systems to highly variable distributed energy resources like photovoltaics, wind, hydro, etc.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Liquid Salt Combined-Cycle Pilot Plant Design

The work described in this report is responsive to the Office of Fossil Energy program ‘Energy Storage for Fossil Power Generation.’ This Phase I report has been prepared by Pintail Power LLC, with support from Nexant ECA, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and Southern Company Services as a deliverable for the U.S. Department of Energy for NETL Award DE-FE-00320016. The Liquid Salt Combined Cycle™ (LSCC™) technology provides large-scale energy storage integrated with Fossil Electric Generating Units (FEGUs) to meet critical needs in the energy transition by providing: • the lowest cost large-scale storage for time-shifting of renewable energy, • superior fuel efficiency to reduce GHGs from dispatchable resources, • flexible capacity and ramping to balance variability of wind and solar resources, • essential grid stability services to assure reliability of a low-carbon grid. The LSCC approach: • employs equipment that has already been proven in utility service, • uses safe, non-toxic, non-degrading, perpetual-life storage medium, • leverages and repurposes existing FEGU assets, • expands the value stack of energy storage to reduce market, financing, and commodity risks. Pintail Power has developed the LSCC technology to meet the need for reliable, efficient, and cost-effective integration of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) into a low-carbon electric grid by coupling proven thermal energy storage with proven gas turbines, steam turbines, and heat transfer equipment. This novel approach is intended to address the key issues facing the grid and operators of renewable and fossil generating units including: • Overgeneration and curtailment of renewables, • Need for fast ramping dispatchable resources, • Improved efficiency and flexibility of fossil units, • Additional peaking capacity to support electrification of transportation and heating, • Provision of reliability services to support high penetration of VRE, especially synchronous inertia and fast frequency response. A Technology Readiness assessment by EPRI confirmed that LSCC technology consists of commercially proven hardware used in industrial and utility applications. Although the novel LSCC approach has not yet been demonstrated as a complete system, interfaces between major components have been conservatively specified. A Phase III pilot is planned to demonstrate equipment integration and operation. The patented innovation is removal of the evaporator section from the exhaust heat recovery system, with the evaporation performed by stored energy in a separate steam generator. This arrangement couples renewable and fossil power generation via long-duration energy storage to deliver cost, performance, and operational synergies, including superior charging and discharging flexibility, reduced fuel consumption and lower CO 2 emissions compared to conventional Combined Cycle Power Plants, and low-cost, large-scale energy storage. The LSCC technology is composed of proven equipment integrated with gas turbine exhaust heat in a novel system. During charging, electric heaters raise the salt temperature as it flows from the Cold Salt Tank to the Hot Salt Tank. During discharging, hot salt produces steam from feedwater that is heated with gas turbine exhaust, which also superheats steam to drive a steam turbine. LSCC technology can be added to any combustion-turbine to integrate renewable energy, provide needed grid services, and increase the value of fossil electric generating units based on the technology’s following attributes: • Long-duration storage enables time-shifting of VRE to avoid curtailment and impairment of renewable assets. • Long storage duration combined with fast-charging capability increases arbitrage opportunities by storing more energy when the price is low and discharging more hours when the price is high. • Long storage duration allows resource adequacy to be supplied across multiple days to increase reliability and reduce risk. • The stored energy reduces fuel heat rate and GHG emissions, and increases merit, so the LSCC dispatches earlier and longer to increase the plant’s capacity factor and asset value. • The stored energy enables pre-heating and startup of the steam cycle, without operating the gas turbine, to enable fast startup and ramping when dispatched for discharge. • The steam turbine can operate without the gas turbine so it can provide valuable synchronous inertia during charging without consuming fuel. • Fast frequency response and regulation services can be provided during charging using solid-state heater and pump controls to vary the charge power input in response to grid signals. • The LSCC system can be configured for resilience including black start, islanded/micro-grid operation, and even self-recharging of storage using either gas turbine power or gas turbine exhaust heat. The commercialization plan is to add LSCC technology to existing simple cycle gas turbine power plants with the 50MW GE LM6000 aero-derivative gas turbine as the reference design basis. A Techno-economic assessment of the reference design evaluated the benefits (Levelized Avoided Cost of Energy) and costs (Levelized Cost of Energy). The plant definition included all major systems and budgetary vendor quotes. Pintail Power and NexantECA developed the overall cost estimate for the LSCC plant up to the total plant cost level, following the DOE-NETL cost estimate guidelines at AACE Class 3 (-20%/+30%). This includes the equipment cost, bulk material, direct and indirect labor costs to arrive at the bare erected cost. Engineering costs are factored from the BEC and added to it to arrive at the EPC cost. Process and project contingencies were then factored from the EPC cost and rolled-up to yield the total plant cost of $\$$184 million for 1746 MWh of discharge electricity. • At $\$$105/kWh, the reference plant costs less than any of the Energy Storage Systems evaluated by PNNL in 2020 for the Energy Storage Grand Challenge. Operations and Maintenance cost estimates were scaled from combined cycle practice, assuming that the LSCC unit was co-located with and sharing some labor expense with other units, to arrive at $\$$2.2 million per year. Plant economics were evaluated using prices from the ERCOT Day-Ahead Market for calendar year 2019 (excluding the market disruptions from the COVID pandemic and the February 2020 deep freeze event). Assuming economic dispatch in the ERCOT Day-Ahead market, the reference plant capacity factor would have discharged for 2777 hours at 91.9 MW, a 31.66% capacity factor, with a marginal cost of $\$$25.59/MWh, and a LACE of $\$$82.41/MWh. Fixed charges were calculated according to EIA guidelines to arrive at an LCOE of $\$$83.48. The benefit-to-cost ratio of 0.99 suggests that the reference plant would have been cost-effective and competitive in the market. EPRI interviewed selected utilities to gauge the need for, applicability of and interest in the LSCC system. Several utilities are currently managing increased load growth along with the inclusion of increasing levels of renewable generation, putting pressure on conventional generation by requiring increased turndown requirements and ultimately lower capacity factors. All of the utilities interviewed have CO 2 reduction targets in the 2030-2050 timeframe that will severely limit the participation of fossil generation and require better utilization of carbon free generation. While there is limited opportunity for storage in the current markets, the utilities interviewed stated that there will be a substantial need for long duration energy storage in the future given the expected trends. Utilizing an energy storage system will generally be preferred over new gas capacity in some cases, with the capabilities of the LSCC system being a potential option for retrofit to existing simple cycle gas turbine units, allowing them to deliver greater participation in the market with lower carbon intensity. A technology gap assessment and technology maturation plan identified a pilot-scale demonstration as the final step before commercialization. Key gaps to be addressed during the Phase II FEED (Front-End Engineering Design) are component selection and design, commissioning procedures, and operational procedures and the control system for LSCC charging and discharging. The project team has been expanded to include Wood Group PLC as EPC. The proposed Phase II work leads to a pilot-scale engineering demonstration (TRL 6) to be conducted at Southern Company’s Plant Rowan, where the prototype system will perform “all the functions that will be required of the operational system.” The proposed pilot will facilitate commercialization (TRL-9) by scale-up to utility-scale systems integrated with peaking GTs or directly to facility scale systems using industrial GTs. The conceptual design for the pilot plant focuses on the novel integration aspects of LSCC technology. A slipstream of gas turbine exhaust will feed a waste heat recovery unit coupled to a molten salt steam generator heated by stored energy. The pilot is intended to demonstrate all key operating modes of the LSCC technology during charging, discharging and standby. The pilot equipment will be approximately one-seventh scale of the LM6000 commercial target and is expected to have commercial off-ramp potential for facility-scale applications.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗