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DOE OSTI2025

Abundance and properties of dark radiation from the cosmic microwave background

We study the cosmological signatures of new light relics that are collisionless like standard neutrinos or are strongly interacting. We provide a simple and succinct rephrasing of their physical effects in the cosmic microwave background, as well as the resulting parameter degeneracies with other cosmological parameters, in terms of the total radiation abundance and the fraction thereof that freely streams. In these more general terms, interacting and noninteracting light relics are differentiated by their respective decrease and increase of the free-streaming fraction, and, moreover, the scale-dependent interplay thereof with a common, correlated reduction of the fraction of matter in baryons. We then derive updated constraints on various dark-radiation scenarios with the latest cosmological observations, employing this language to identify the physical origin of the impact of each dataset. The “PR4” reanalyses of Planck CMB data prefer a larger primordial helium yield and therefore also slightly more radiation than the 2018 analysis; we investigate the differences between the two releases that drives these shifts. Smaller free-streaming fractions are disfavored by the excess lensing of the CMB measured in lensing reconstruction data from Planck and the Atacama Cosmology Telescope. On the other hand, baryon acoustic oscillation measurements from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument drive marginal detections of new, strongly interacting light relics due to that data's preference for lower matter fractions. Finally, we forecast measurements from the CMB-S4 experiment.

cosmological parameters from CMBR↗

DOE OSTI2025

Testing the thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich power spectrum of a halo model using hydrodynamical simulations

Statistical properties of large-scale cosmological structures serve as powerful tools for constraining the cosmological properties of our Universe. Tracing the gas pressure, the thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich (tSZ) effect is a biased probe of mass distribution and, hence, can be used to test the physics of feedback or cosmological models. Therefore, it is crucial to develop robust modelling of hot gas pressure for applications to tSZ surveys. Since gas collapses into bound structures, it is expected that most of the tSZ signal is within halos produced by cosmic accretion shocks. Hence, simple empirical halo models can be used to predict the tSZ power spectra. In this study, we employed the HMx halo model to compare the tSZ power spectra with those of several hydrodynamical simulations: the Horizon suite and the Magneticum simulation. We examine various contributions to the tSZ power spectrum across different redshifts, including the one- and two-halo term decomposition, the amount of bound gas, the importance of different masses, and the electron pressure profiles. Our comparison of the tSZ power spectrum reveals discrepancies between the halo model and cosmological simulations that increase with redshift. We find a 20% to 50% difference between the measured and predicted tSZ angular power spectrum over the multipole range ℓ = 10 3 − 10 4 . Our analysis reveals that these differences are driven by the excess of power in the predicted two-halo term at low k and in the one-halo term at high k . At higher redshifts ( z ∼ 3), simulations indicate that more power comes from outside the virial radius than from inside, suggesting a limitation in the applicability of the halo model. We also observe differences in the pressure profiles, despite the fair level of agreement on the tSZ power spectrum at low redshift with the default calibration of the halo model. In conclusion, our study suggests that the properties of the halo model need to be carefully controlled against real or mock data to be proven useful for cosmological purposes.

Ayçoberry, Emma (ORCID:0000000292351195)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Impact of Varying Dark Energy on Future Large-Scale Structure Studies

The cosmos withholds multiple mysteries such as dark forms of matter and energy that are yet beyond human comprehension. In the standard cosmological model, $\Lambda$CDM, the cosmological constant $\Lambda$ is thought to be responsible for the late accelerated expansion of the Universe. However, recent results from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) suggest the possibility of evolving dark energy, which warrants further exploration. Future surveys such as the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will map the large-scale structure (LSS) with unprecedented precision, giving us valuable statistical information about the cosmos. The goal of this research is to investigate the potential impact of an evolving dark energy scenario on cosmological parameters constrained by LSS probes, as will be mapped by the LSST. For this, we examine the power spectra of lens galaxies, source galaxies, and cross-power spectra between lens galaxies and source galaxies. The combination of these statistics is commonly referred to as '3 $\times$ 2 points'. For this investigation, we created a set of simulations resembling LSST data and used them to perform cosmological parameter inference in two scenarios: one in which the simulated data is based on the fiducial model and another on evolving dark energy. We then examined the degeneracy between the cosmological parameters and checked for potential shifts in the parametric space when the data contains dynamical dark energy but the modeling assumes $\Lambda$CDM. Our findings indicate that mismodeling the dark energy equation of state can significantly impact parameter inference, particularly affecting the total matter density, $\Omega_m$, and the growth of structures, as represented by the $S_8$ parameter. These results highlight the importance of further exploring extensions of the $\Lambda$CDM model in future LSS studies.

Yaman Acharya, A.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evidence for large baryonic feedback at low and intermediate redshifts from kinematic Sunyaev-Zel’dovich observations with ACT and DESI photometric galaxies

Recent advances in cosmological observations have provided an unprecedented opportunity to investigate the distribution of baryons relative to the underlying matter. In this work, we show that the gas is more extended than the dark matter, and the amount of baryonic feedback at $z \lesssim 1$ disfavors low-feedback models such as that of state-of-the-art hydrodynamical simulation IllustrisTNG compared with high-feedback models such as that of the original Illustris simulation. This has important implications for bridging the gap between theory and observations and understanding galaxy formation and evolution. Furthermore, a better grasp of the baryon-dark matter link is critical to future cosmological analyses, which are currently impeded by our limited knowledge of baryonic feedback. Here, we measure the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (kSZ) effect from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT), stacked on the luminous red galaxy (LRG) sample of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) imaging survey. This is the first analysis to use photometric redshifts for reconstructing galaxy velocities. Due to the large number of galaxies comprising the DESI imaging survey, this is the highest signal-to-noise stacked kSZ measurement to date: we detect the signal at 13$σ$, finding strong evidence that the gas is more spread out than the dark matter, as well as a preference for larger feedback compared to some commonly used state-of-the-art hydrodynamical simulations. Here, our work opens up the possibility of recalibrating large hydrodynamical simulations using the kSZ effect. In addition, our findings highlight the importance of properly accounting for baryonic feedback with future surveys such as LSST through direct probes such as the kSZ, and shed light on long-standing enigmas in astrophysics, such as the “missing baryon” problem.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Constraints on compact objects from the Dark Energy Survey 5-yr supernova sample

ABSTRACT Gravitational lensing magnification of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) allows information to be obtained about the distribution of matter on small scales. In this paper, we derive limits on the fraction $\alpha$ of the total matter density in compact objects (which comprise stars, stellar remnants, small stellar groupings, and primordial black holes) of mass M > 0.03 ${\rm M}_{\odot }$ over cosmological distances. Using 1532 SNe Ia from the Dark Energy Survey Year 5 sample (DES-SN5YR) combined with a Bayesian prior for the absolute magnitude M, we obtain α < 0.12 at the 95 per cent confidence level after marginalization over cosmological parameters, lensing due to large-scale structure, and intrinsic non-Gaussianity. Similar results are obtained using priors from the cosmic microwave background, baryon acoustic oscillations, and galaxy weak lensing, indicating our results do not depend on the background cosmology. We argue our constraints are likely to be conservative (in the sense of the values we quote being higher than the truth), but discuss scenarios in which they could be weakened by systematics of the order of $\Delta \alpha \sim 0.04$.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Impact of Galactic non-Gaussian foregrounds on CMB lensing measurements

Weak gravitational lensing of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) has been established as a robust and powerful observable for precision cosmology. However, the impact of Galactic foregrounds, which has been studied less extensively than many other potential systematics, could in principle pose a problem for CMB lensing measurements. These foregrounds are inherently non-Gaussian and hence might mimic the characteristic signal that lensing estimators are designed to measure. We present an analysis that quantifies the level of contamination from Galactic dust in lensing measurements, focusing particularly on measurements with the Atacama Cosmology Telescope and the Simons Observatory. We employ a whole suite of foreground models and study the contamination of lensing measurements with both individual frequency channels and multifrequency combinations. We test the sensitivity of different estimators to the level of foreground non-Gaussianity and the dependence on sky fraction and multipole range used. We find that Galactic foregrounds do not present a problem for the Atacama Cosmology Telescope experiment (the bias in the inferred CMB lensing power spectrum amplitude remains below 0.3σ). For Simons Observatory, not all foreground models remain below this threshold. Although our results are conservative upper limits, they suggest that further work on characterizing dust biases and determining the impact of mitigation methods is well motivated, especially for the largest sky fractions.

cosmic microwave background↗

DOE OSTI2026

Robustness of pairwise kinematic Sunyaev–Zel’dovich effect to optical-cluster-selection bias

The pairwise kinematic Sunyaev–Zel’dovich (kSZ) effect measures both the pairwise motion between galaxy groups and clusters and the amount of gas within them, providing a tracer for cosmic growth. To interpret the cosmological information in the kSZ measurements, it is crucial to understand the optical-cluster-selection bias on the kSZ observables. Line-of-sight structures that contribute to both the optical observable (e.g., richness) and the cosmological signal can induce a correlation between these two quantities at a fixed cluster mass. The selection bias arising from this correlation is a key systematic effect for cosmological analyses. For cosmological observables such as cluster abundance and weak lensing, controlling this selection bias may help explain the tension between the DES-Y1 results and the Planck constraints. In order to test for a kSZ effect equivalent of such a bias, we adopted an alternative mock richness based on galaxy counts within cylindrical volumes along the line of sight. We applied the cylindrical count method to hydrodynamical simulations across a wide range of galaxy-selection criteria, assigning richness consistent with DES-Y1 to the mock clusters. When comparing optically selected clusters to mass-selected halos, we find no significant bias on pairwise kSZ signals, pairwise velocities, or optical depth within our uncertainty limits of approximately 16, 10, and 8%, respectively.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

DESI2024: Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey, presentation of Year 1 results

The series of papers included in this special issue represent the first cosmological measurements from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). These papers present the validation of the DESI clustering catalogs, the methodology for the cosmology measurements, and the full cosmology implications. These measurements were derived from a catalog of approximately 6.4 million extragalactic sources in a redshift range of 0.1 < z < 4.2. Owing to advances in fiber positioner technology and to a larger telescope, this sample was acquired in only one year of observation, yet is more than double the size of the galaxy and quasar samples from the first four phases of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) that spanned 20 years. With these new galaxy and quasar catalogs, the DESI collaboration completed percent-level constraints on the cosmic expansion history and the growth of structure. In turn, these new measurements provided a new platform from which to test the equation of state of dark energy, the summed mass of the three neutrino mass eigenstates, global curvature, and General Relativity. By surpassing the precision of the previous generation spectroscopic survey, the results in this special issue mark the transition in the field of cosmology to Stage-IV dark energy science.

baryon acoustic oscillations↗

DOE OSTI2025

A comparison between ShapeFit compression and Full-Modelling method with PyBird for DESI 2024 and beyond

DESI aims to provide one of the tightest constraints on cosmological parameters by analysing the clustering of more than thirty million galaxies. However, obtaining such constraints requires special care in validating the methodology and efforts to reduce the computational time required through data compression and emulation techniques. In this work, we perform a rigorous validation of the PyBird power spectrum modelling code with both a traditional emulated Full-Modelling approach and the model-independent ShapeFit compression approach. By using cubic box simulations that accurately reproduce the clustering and precision of the DESI survey, we find that the cosmological constraints from ShapeFit and Full-Modelling are consistent with each other at the ∼ 0.5σ level for the ΛCDM model. Both ShapeFit and Full-Modelling are also consistent with the true ΛCDM simulation cosmology down to a scale of k max = 0.20 hMpc -1 even after including the hexadecapole. For extended models such as the wCDM and the oCDM models, we find that including the hexadecapole can significantly improve the constraints and reduce the modelling errors with the same k max . While their discrepancies between the constraints from ShapeFit and Full-Modelling are more significant than ΛCDM, they remain consistent within 0.7σ. Lastly, we also show that the constraints on cosmological parameters with the correlation function evaluated from PyBird down to s min = 30h -1 Mpc are unbiased and consistent with the constraints from the power spectrum.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Exploring HOD-dependent systematics for the DESI 2024 Full-Shape galaxy clustering analysis

We analyze the robustness of the DESI 2024 cosmological inference from the full shape of the galaxy power spectrum to uncertainties in the Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD) model of the galaxy-halo connection and the choice of priors on nuisance parameters. We assess variations in the recovered cosmological parameters across a range of mocks populated with different HOD models and find that shifts are often greater than 20% of the expected statistical uncertainties from the DESI data. We encapsulate the effect of such shifts in terms of a systematic covariance term, C HOD , and an additional diagonal contribution quantifying the impact of our choice of nuisance parameter priors on the ability of the effective field theory (EFT) model to correctly recover the cosmological parameters of the simulations. These two covariance contributions are designed to be added to the usual covariance term, C stat , describing the statistical uncertainty in the power spectrum measurement, in order to fairly represent these sources of systematic uncertainty. This novel approach should be more general and robust to the choice of model or additional external datasets used in cosmological fits than the alternative approach of adding systematic uncertainties to the recovered marginalised parameter posteriors. We compare the approaches within the context of a fixed ΛCDM model and demonstrate that our method gives conservative estimates of the systematic uncertainty that nevertheless have little impact on the final posteriors obtained from DESI data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

DESI 2024 V: Full-Shape galaxy clustering from galaxies and quasars

We present the measurements and cosmological implications of the galaxy two-point clustering using over 4.7 million unique galaxy and quasar redshifts in the range 0.1 < z < 2.1 divided into six redshift bins over a ∼ 7,500 square degree footprint, from the first year of observations with the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI Data Release 1). By fitting the full power spectrum, we extend previous DESI DR1 baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements to include redshift-space distortions and signals from the matter-radiation equality scale. For the first time, this Full-Shape analysis is blinded at the catalogue-level to avoid confirmation bias and the systematic errors are accounted for at the two-point clustering level, which automatically propagates them into any cosmological parameter. When analyzing the data in terms of compressed model-agnostic variables, we obtain a combined precision of 4.7% on the amplitude of the redshift space distortion (RSD) signal reaching a similar precision with just one year of DESI data than with twenty years of observation from the previous generation survey. We also analyze the data to directly constrain the cosmological parameters within the ΛCDM model using perturbation theory and combine this information with the reconstructed DESI DR1 galaxy BAO. Using a Big Bang Nucleosynthesis Gaussian prior on the baryon density parameter, ω b , and a weak Gaussian prior on the spectral index, n s , we constrain the matter density is Ω m = 0.296±0.010 and the Hubble constant H 0 = (68.63 ± 0.79)[km s -1 Mpc -1 ]. Additionally, we measure the amplitude of clustering σ 8 = 0.841±0.034. The DESI DR1 galaxy clustering results are in agreement with the ΛCDM model based on general relativity with parameters consistent with those from Planck. The cosmological interpretation of these results in combination with DESI DR1 Ly-α forest data and external datasets are presented in the companion paper [1].

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Joint inference of multiplicative and additive systematics in galaxy density fluctuations and clustering measurements

Galaxy clustering measurements are a key probe of the matter density field in the Universe. With the era of precision cosmology upon us, surveys rely on precise measurements of the clustering signal for meaningful cosmological analysis. However, the presence of systematic contaminants can bias the observed galaxy number density, and thereby bias the galaxy two-point statistics. As the statistical uncertainties get smaller, correcting for these systematic contaminants becomes increasingly important for unbiased cosmological analysis. We present and validate a new method for understanding and mitigating both additive and multiplicative systematics in galaxy clustering measurements (two-point function) by joint inference of contaminants in the galaxy overdensity field (one-point function) using a maximum-likelihood estimator (MLE). We test this methodology with Kilo-Degree Survey-like mock galaxy catalogues and synthetic systematic template maps. We estimate the cosmological impact of such mitigation by quantifying uncertainties and possible biases in the inferred relationship between the observed and the true galaxy clustering signal. Our method robustly corrects the clustering signal to the sub-percent level and reduces numerous additive and multiplicative systematics from 1.5σ to less than 0.1σ for the scenarios we tested. In addition, we provide an empirical approach to identifying the functional form (additive, multiplicative, or other) by which specific systematics contaminate the galaxy number density. Even though this approach is tested and geared towards systematics contaminating the galaxy number density, the methods can be extended to systematics mitigation for other two-point correlation measurements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

DESI 2024: Constraints on physics-focused aspects of dark energy using DESI DR1 BAO data

Baryon acoustic oscillation data from the first year of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) provide near percent-level precision of cosmic distances in seven bins over the redshift range z=0.1–4.2. Here, this paper is the follow-up to the original DESI BAO cosmology paper [A. G. Adame et al. (DESI Collaboration), arXiv:2404.03002], which considered the conventional w 0 w a cold dark matter (CDM) model. We use the novel DESI data, together with other cosmic probes, to constrain the background expansion history using some well-motivated physical classes of dark energy. In particular, we explore three physics-focused behaviors of dark energy from the equation of state and energy density perspectives: the thawing class (matching many simple quintessence potentials), emergent class (where dark energy comes into being recently, as in phase transition models), and mirage class [where phenomenologically the distance to cosmic microwave background (CMB) last scattering is close to that from a cosmological constant Λ despite dark energy dynamics]. All three classes fit the data at least as well as Λ ⁢CDM, and indeed can improve on it by Δ⁢χ 2 ≈ –5 to –17 for the combination of DESI BAO with CMB and supernova data while having one more parameter. The mirage class does essentially as well as w 0 ⁢w a CDM and exhibits moderate to strong Bayesian evidence preference with respect to Λ⁢ CDM. These classes of dynamical behaviors highlight worthwhile avenues for further exploration into the nature of dark energy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Clustering of DESI galaxies split by thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect

The thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich (tSZ) effect is associated with galaxy clusters - extremely large and dense structures tracing the dark matter with a higher bias than isolated galaxies. We propose to use the tSZ data to separate galaxies from redshift surveys into distinct subpopulations corresponding to different densities and biases independently of the redshift survey systematics. Leveraging the information from different environments, as in density-split and density-marked clustering, is known to tighten the constraints on cosmological parameters, like $\Omega_m$, $\sigma_8$ and neutrino mass. We use data from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) and the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) in their region of overlap to demonstrate informative tSZ splitting of Luminous Red Galaxies (LRGs). We discover a significant increase in the large-scale clustering of DESI LRGs corresponding to detections starting from 1-2 sigma in the ACT DR6 + Planck tSZ Compton-$y$ map, below the cluster candidate threshold (4 sigma). We also find that such galaxies have higher line-of-sight coordinate (and velocity) dispersions and a higher number of close neighbors than both the full sample and near-zero tSZ regions. We produce simple simulations of tSZ maps that are intrinsically consistent with galaxy catalogs and do not include systematic effects, and find a similar pattern of large-scale clustering enhancement with tSZ effect significance. Moreover, we observe that this relative bias pattern remains largely unchanged with variations in the galaxy-halo connection model in our simulations. This is promising for future cosmological inference from tSZ-split clustering with semi-analytical models. Thus, we demonstrate that valuable cosmological information is present in the lower signal-to-noise regions of the thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich map, extending far beyond the individual cluster candidates.

Astronomy data analysis↗

DOE OSTI2025

Wino and Real Minimal Dark Matter Excluded by Fermi Gamma-Ray Observations

We show that minimal, fermionic dark matter (DM) models in the $n$-dimensional representation of the weak force with zero hypercharge that make up 100% of the DM under the standard cosmological history are strongly excluded for $n < 9$. This includes the thermal wino, which we show is ruled out even allowing for DM core sizes up to $\sim$6.7 kpc with the preferred local DM density or $\sim$3.7 kpc in addition to the local DM density being half the preferred value, at less than $0.2$ GeV/cm$^3$. We reach these conclusions through dedicated searches with 14 years of Fermi gamma-ray data in the inner Galaxy between 30 GeV and 2 TeV for the continuum gamma-rays produced in the decays of unstable particles produced in DM annihilation and bound-state formation processes. We consider a variety of Milky Way DM profiles in our analyses, including those motivated by modern hydrodynamic cosmological simulations, and show that all the $n < 9$ minimal DM models are disfavored even under the most conservative assumptions for these density profiles. While wino, quintuplet ($n=5$), and $n = 7$ DM models are strongly disfavored by our analyses under the standard cosmology, we discuss how non-standard cosmological histories or DM sub-fractions could still allow for these particles to be realized in nature, with discovery opportunities at next-generation particle colliders and gamma-ray telescopes.

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics (astro-ph.C↗

DOE OSTI2025

Axion Perturbations: A General Analytical Treatment

Cosmological data provides us two key constraints on dark matter (DM): it must have a particular abundance, and it must have an adiabatic spectrum of density perturbations in the early universe. Many different cosmological scenarios have been proposed that establish the abundance of axion DM in qualitatively different ways. In this paper we emphasize that, despite this variety of backgrounds, the perturbations in axion DM can be understood from universal principles. How does a feebly interacting axion field acquire perturbations proportional to those of photons? How do the isocurvature power spectrum and non-Gaussianity depend on the background evolution of the universe? We answer these questions for a completely general choice of cosmological background and temperature-dependent axion potential. We show that the most general solution to the axion field equation on super-horizon scales is entirely determined by the family of background solutions for different initial field values . This holds for both the component in the field perturbation solution contributing to the DM isocurvature perturbation (enhanced at late times by the sensitivity of the DM abundance to the initial condition, , which can be large for initial conditions near the hilltop), and the other component that contributes to the DM curvature perturbation. In particular, we explain that an unperturbed axion field in the early universe evolving into one with nontrivial adiabatic perturbations is guaranteed by Weinberg's theorem on adiabatic modes. These results have been derived before with various assumptions, such as a radiation dominated background or a quadratic potential. Our aim is to give a clear, simple derivation that is manifestly independent of those assumptions, and thus can be applied to any cosmological axion scenario.

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics (astro-ph.C↗

DOE OSTI2024

The quality/cosmology tension for a post-inflation QCD axion

Abstract It is difficult to construct a post-inflation QCD axion model that solves the axion quality problem (and hence the Strong CP problem) without introducing a cosmological disaster. In a post-inflation axion model, the axion field value is randomized during the Peccei-Quinn phase transition, and axion domain walls form at the QCD phase transition. We emphasize that the gauge equivalence of all minima of the axion potential (i.e., domain wall number equals one) is insufficient to solve the cosmological domain wall problem. The axion string on which a domain wall ends must exist as an individual object (as opposed to a multi-string state), and it must be produced in the early universe. These conditions are often not satisfied in concrete models. Post-inflation axion models also face a potential problem from fractionally charged relics; solving this problem often leads to low-energy Landau poles for Standard Model gauge couplings, reintroducing the quality problem. We study several examples, finding that models that solve the quality problem face cosmological problems, and vice versa. This is not a no-go theorem; nonetheless, we argue that it is much more difficult than generally appreciated to find a viable post-inflation QCD axion model. Successful examples may have a nonstandard cosmological history (e.g., multiple types of cosmic axion strings of different tensions), undermining the widespread expectation that the post-inflation QCD axion scenario predicts a unique mass for axion dark matter.

Physics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bounds on galaxy stochasticity from halo occupation distribution modeling

The joint probability distribution of matter overdensity and galaxy counts in cells is a powerful probe of cosmology, and the extent to which variance in galaxy counts at fixed matter density deviates from Poisson shot noise is not fully understood. The lack of informed bounds on this stochasticity is currently the limiting factor in constraining cosmology with the galaxy–matter probability distribution function (PDF). We investigate stochasticity in the conditional distribution of galaxy counts along lines of sight with fixed matter density, and we present a halo occupation distribution (HOD)-based approach for obtaining plausible ranges for stochasticity parameters. To probe the high-dimensional space of possible galaxy–matter connections, we derive a set of HODs that conserve the galaxies’ linear bias and number density to produce RED M A G I C-like galaxy catalogs within the A BACUS S UMMIT suite of N -body simulations. We study the impact of individual HOD parameters and cosmology on stochasticity and perform a Monte Carlo search in HOD parameter space subject to the constraints on bias and density. In mock catalogs generated by the selected HODs, shot noise in galaxy counts spans both sub-Poisson and super-Poisson values, ranging from 80% to 133% of Poisson variance for cells with mean matter density. Nearly all of the derived HODs show a positive relationship between local matter density and stochasticity. For galaxy catalogs with higher stochasticity, modeling galaxy bias to second order is required for an accurate description of the conditional PDF of galaxy counts at fixed matter density. The presence of galaxy assembly bias also substantially extends the range of stochasticity in the super-Poisson direction. This HOD-based approach leverages degrees of freedom in the galaxy–halo connection to obtain informed bounds on nuisance model parameters and can be adapted to study other parametrizations of shot noise in galaxy counts, in particular to motivate prior ranges on stochasticity for cosmological analyses.

Britt, Dylan (ORCID:000000019905601X)↗