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Near-Term Reliability and Resilience (NTRR) (Final Report)

The Near-Term Reliability and Resiliency (NTRR) was awarded in December 2020 as an inter-lab project to examine the reliability and resilience of the electricity grid and natural gas transportation availability. The project builds on studies conducted by The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and other non-governmental research and operational focused on reliability and resilience analyses challenges. The research was conceived to address near-term scenarios (within 10 years), when many local and regional policy transitions could begin to impact grid reliability, resilience, and supporting infrastructure availability. To integrate the natural gas interdependency, the team began with the generating capacity and demand projections from the 2020 NERC Long-Term Reliability Assessment and the Bulk Electric System (BES) transmission topologies defined in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) Anchor Data Set, Eastern Interconnection Reliability Assessment Group Multi-Regional Modeling Working Group (ERAG/MMWG) Data Set, the team calculated baseline regional power sector gas demands from present electricity delivery year through the end of delivery year 2030/31 by applying security constrained economic dispatch. This demand was compiled along with demand projections for regional residential, commercial, and industrial natural gas demands from the most recent Energy Information Administration (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook Reference Case into Deloitte’s MarketBuilder® North American Gas Model. Through the application of these demands, MarketBuilder® was projected the topology of natural gas flows in the natural gas pipeline network across the interconnected North American system along with regional natural gas prices that may be seen by market participants in future years Additionally, contingencies and sensitivities focused on the built models of the Eastern Interconnection (EI) and Western Interconnection (WI). They address challenges from the following with the outcomes being an identification of performance under the extreme conditions and an identification of potential grid weaknesses that should be addressed to mitigate the reduced performance and improve the resilience and reliability of the specific regions as well as the National Grid: • Weather events including extreme heat, extreme cold, high wind, no wind, wind and solar forecasting errors, and wildfires. • Gas availability, factoring in supply disruption (contractual and physical), seasonal availability constraints, and infrastructure limitations; and • Transmission availability and congestion.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Liquid Salt Combined-Cycle Pilot Plant Design

The work described in this report is responsive to the Office of Fossil Energy program ‘Energy Storage for Fossil Power Generation.’ This Phase I report has been prepared by Pintail Power LLC, with support from Nexant ECA, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and Southern Company Services as a deliverable for the U.S. Department of Energy for NETL Award DE-FE-00320016. The Liquid Salt Combined Cycle™ (LSCC™) technology provides large-scale energy storage integrated with Fossil Electric Generating Units (FEGUs) to meet critical needs in the energy transition by providing: • the lowest cost large-scale storage for time-shifting of renewable energy, • superior fuel efficiency to reduce GHGs from dispatchable resources, • flexible capacity and ramping to balance variability of wind and solar resources, • essential grid stability services to assure reliability of a low-carbon grid. The LSCC approach: • employs equipment that has already been proven in utility service, • uses safe, non-toxic, non-degrading, perpetual-life storage medium, • leverages and repurposes existing FEGU assets, • expands the value stack of energy storage to reduce market, financing, and commodity risks. Pintail Power has developed the LSCC technology to meet the need for reliable, efficient, and cost-effective integration of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) into a low-carbon electric grid by coupling proven thermal energy storage with proven gas turbines, steam turbines, and heat transfer equipment. This novel approach is intended to address the key issues facing the grid and operators of renewable and fossil generating units including: • Overgeneration and curtailment of renewables, • Need for fast ramping dispatchable resources, • Improved efficiency and flexibility of fossil units, • Additional peaking capacity to support electrification of transportation and heating, • Provision of reliability services to support high penetration of VRE, especially synchronous inertia and fast frequency response. A Technology Readiness assessment by EPRI confirmed that LSCC technology consists of commercially proven hardware used in industrial and utility applications. Although the novel LSCC approach has not yet been demonstrated as a complete system, interfaces between major components have been conservatively specified. A Phase III pilot is planned to demonstrate equipment integration and operation. The patented innovation is removal of the evaporator section from the exhaust heat recovery system, with the evaporation performed by stored energy in a separate steam generator. This arrangement couples renewable and fossil power generation via long-duration energy storage to deliver cost, performance, and operational synergies, including superior charging and discharging flexibility, reduced fuel consumption and lower CO 2 emissions compared to conventional Combined Cycle Power Plants, and low-cost, large-scale energy storage. The LSCC technology is composed of proven equipment integrated with gas turbine exhaust heat in a novel system. During charging, electric heaters raise the salt temperature as it flows from the Cold Salt Tank to the Hot Salt Tank. During discharging, hot salt produces steam from feedwater that is heated with gas turbine exhaust, which also superheats steam to drive a steam turbine. LSCC technology can be added to any combustion-turbine to integrate renewable energy, provide needed grid services, and increase the value of fossil electric generating units based on the technology’s following attributes: • Long-duration storage enables time-shifting of VRE to avoid curtailment and impairment of renewable assets. • Long storage duration combined with fast-charging capability increases arbitrage opportunities by storing more energy when the price is low and discharging more hours when the price is high. • Long storage duration allows resource adequacy to be supplied across multiple days to increase reliability and reduce risk. • The stored energy reduces fuel heat rate and GHG emissions, and increases merit, so the LSCC dispatches earlier and longer to increase the plant’s capacity factor and asset value. • The stored energy enables pre-heating and startup of the steam cycle, without operating the gas turbine, to enable fast startup and ramping when dispatched for discharge. • The steam turbine can operate without the gas turbine so it can provide valuable synchronous inertia during charging without consuming fuel. • Fast frequency response and regulation services can be provided during charging using solid-state heater and pump controls to vary the charge power input in response to grid signals. • The LSCC system can be configured for resilience including black start, islanded/micro-grid operation, and even self-recharging of storage using either gas turbine power or gas turbine exhaust heat. The commercialization plan is to add LSCC technology to existing simple cycle gas turbine power plants with the 50MW GE LM6000 aero-derivative gas turbine as the reference design basis. A Techno-economic assessment of the reference design evaluated the benefits (Levelized Avoided Cost of Energy) and costs (Levelized Cost of Energy). The plant definition included all major systems and budgetary vendor quotes. Pintail Power and NexantECA developed the overall cost estimate for the LSCC plant up to the total plant cost level, following the DOE-NETL cost estimate guidelines at AACE Class 3 (-20%/+30%). This includes the equipment cost, bulk material, direct and indirect labor costs to arrive at the bare erected cost. Engineering costs are factored from the BEC and added to it to arrive at the EPC cost. Process and project contingencies were then factored from the EPC cost and rolled-up to yield the total plant cost of $\$$184 million for 1746 MWh of discharge electricity. • At $\$$105/kWh, the reference plant costs less than any of the Energy Storage Systems evaluated by PNNL in 2020 for the Energy Storage Grand Challenge. Operations and Maintenance cost estimates were scaled from combined cycle practice, assuming that the LSCC unit was co-located with and sharing some labor expense with other units, to arrive at $\$$2.2 million per year. Plant economics were evaluated using prices from the ERCOT Day-Ahead Market for calendar year 2019 (excluding the market disruptions from the COVID pandemic and the February 2020 deep freeze event). Assuming economic dispatch in the ERCOT Day-Ahead market, the reference plant capacity factor would have discharged for 2777 hours at 91.9 MW, a 31.66% capacity factor, with a marginal cost of $\$$25.59/MWh, and a LACE of $\$$82.41/MWh. Fixed charges were calculated according to EIA guidelines to arrive at an LCOE of $\$$83.48. The benefit-to-cost ratio of 0.99 suggests that the reference plant would have been cost-effective and competitive in the market. EPRI interviewed selected utilities to gauge the need for, applicability of and interest in the LSCC system. Several utilities are currently managing increased load growth along with the inclusion of increasing levels of renewable generation, putting pressure on conventional generation by requiring increased turndown requirements and ultimately lower capacity factors. All of the utilities interviewed have CO 2 reduction targets in the 2030-2050 timeframe that will severely limit the participation of fossil generation and require better utilization of carbon free generation. While there is limited opportunity for storage in the current markets, the utilities interviewed stated that there will be a substantial need for long duration energy storage in the future given the expected trends. Utilizing an energy storage system will generally be preferred over new gas capacity in some cases, with the capabilities of the LSCC system being a potential option for retrofit to existing simple cycle gas turbine units, allowing them to deliver greater participation in the market with lower carbon intensity. A technology gap assessment and technology maturation plan identified a pilot-scale demonstration as the final step before commercialization. Key gaps to be addressed during the Phase II FEED (Front-End Engineering Design) are component selection and design, commissioning procedures, and operational procedures and the control system for LSCC charging and discharging. The project team has been expanded to include Wood Group PLC as EPC. The proposed Phase II work leads to a pilot-scale engineering demonstration (TRL 6) to be conducted at Southern Company’s Plant Rowan, where the prototype system will perform “all the functions that will be required of the operational system.” The proposed pilot will facilitate commercialization (TRL-9) by scale-up to utility-scale systems integrated with peaking GTs or directly to facility scale systems using industrial GTs. The conceptual design for the pilot plant focuses on the novel integration aspects of LSCC technology. A slipstream of gas turbine exhaust will feed a waste heat recovery unit coupled to a molten salt steam generator heated by stored energy. The pilot is intended to demonstrate all key operating modes of the LSCC technology during charging, discharging and standby. The pilot equipment will be approximately one-seventh scale of the LM6000 commercial target and is expected to have commercial off-ramp potential for facility-scale applications.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Advances in Energy Hybridization for Resilient Supply: A Sustainable Approach to the Growing World Demand

Energy poverty, defined as a lack of access to reliable electricity and reliance on traditional biomass resources for cooking, affects over a billion people daily. The World Health Organization estimates that household air pollution from inefficient stoves causes more premature deaths than malaria, tuberculosis, and HIV/AIDS. Increasing demand for energy has led to dramatic increases in emissions. The need for reliable electricity and limiting emissions drives research on Resilient Hybrid Energy Systems (RHESs), which provide cleaner energy through combining wind, solar, and biomass energy with traditional fossil energy, increasing production efficiency and reliability and reducing generating costs and emissions. Microgrids have been shown as an efficient means of implementing RHESs, with some focused mainly on reducing the environmental impact of electric power generation. The technical challenges of designing, implementing, and applying microgrids involve conducting a cradle-to-grave Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) to evaluate these systems’ environmental and economic performance under diverse operating conditions to evaluate resiliency. A sample RHES was developed and used to demonstrate the implementation in rural applications, where the system can provide reliable electricity for heating, cooling, lighting, and pumping clean water. The model and findings can be utilized by other regions around the globe facing similar challenges.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The Role of Fuels in Transforming Energy End-Use in Buildings and Industrial Processes

This book examines what role fuels have in the transformation of end-use in buildings and industrial processes. Energy efficient technologies are necessary to lower the carbon footprint for a transition towards clean energy in a sustainable manner. Efficient utilization of primary energy resources including renewables to support the current and future energy needs while targeting grid resiliency, energy and environmental security, at an affordable cost is of significant value. Analysis of configurations consisting of heat pumps, fuel driven thermal providers and power systems is presented. Sensitivity of electrical grid's carbon intensity towards carbon footprint in comparison with fuel driven technologies is necessary to recognize the true value proposition of currently available energy solutions for different end consumers. Similarly, the role of low carbon, zero carbon, and carbon negative fuels such as power to gas, power to liquid, hydrogen, biogas, etc. in conjunction with polygeneration technologies are discussed. Transformation of the primary energy resources from conventional fossil fuels to renewable fuels or electricity will have a significant impact on the overall carbon footprint of various end use sectors, including buildings. Hence, this book also examines two different scenarios focused on sensitivity of the pace of decarbonization of electrical grid and fuel supply on operational energy related carbon emissions.

Cheekatamarla, Praveen↗

ALD-Derived WO 3– x Leads to Nearly Wake-Up-Free Ferroelectric Hf 0.5 Zr 0.5 O 2 at Elevated Temperatures

Breaking the memory wall in advanced computing architectures will require complex 3D integration of emerging memory materials such as ferroelectrics─either within the back-end-of-line (BEOL) of CMOS front-end processes or through advanced 3D packaging technologies. Achieving this integration demands that memory materials exhibit high thermal resilience, with the capability to operate reliably at elevated temperatures, such as 125°C, due to the substantial heat generated by front-end transistors. However, silicon-compatible HfO 2 -based ferroelectrics tend to exhibit antiferroelectric-like behavior in this temperature range, accompanied by a more pronounced wake-up effect, posing significant challenges to their thermal reliability. Here, we report that by introducing a thin tungsten oxide (WO 3–x ) layer─known as an oxygen reservoir─and carefully tuning its oxygen content, ultrathin Hf 0.5 Zr 0.5 O 2 (5 nm) films can be made robust against the ferroelectric-to-antiferroelectric transition at elevated temperatures. This approach not only minimizes polarization loss in the pristine state but also effectively suppresses the wake-up effect, reducing the required wake-up cycles from 10 5 to only 10 at 125°C, a qualifying temperature for back-end memory integrated with front-end logic, as defined by the JEDEC standard. First-principles density functional theory (DFT) calculations reveal that WO 3 enhances the stability of the ferroelectric orthorhombic phase (o-phase) at elevated temperatures by increasing the tetragonal-to-orthorhombic phase energy gap and promoting favorable phonon mode evolution, thereby supporting o-phase formation under both thermodynamic and kinetic constraints.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Copper foil provides uniform heat sink path

Thermal path prevents voids and discontinuities which make heat sinks in electronic equipment inefficient. The thermal path combines the high thermal conductivity of copper with the resiliency of silicone rubber.

Phillips, I. E., Jr.↗

LAVA Pressure Transducer Trade Study

The Regolith and Environment Science and Oxygen and Lunar Volatile Extraction (RESOLVE) payload will transport the (LAVA) subsystem to hydrogen-rich locations on the moon supporting NASA's in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) programs. There, the LAVA subsystem will analyze volatiles that evolve from heated regolith samples in order to quantify how much water is present. To do this, the system needs resilient pressure transducers (PTs) to calculate the moles in the gas samples. The PT trade study includes a comparison of newly-procured models to a baseline unit with prior flight history in order to determine the PT model with the best survivability in flight-forward conditions.

Trade Study↗

Role of On-Site Generation in Carbon Emissions and Utility Bill Savings under Different Electric Grid Scenarios

Energy-efficient and sustainable technologies are necessary to lower energy and carbon footprints. Many technologies are being pursued to meet the increasing energy demand in buildings. An attractive option is efficient utilization of available energy resources, including renewables, to support current and future building energy needs while targeting grid resiliency, energy, and environmental security at an affordable cost via on-site cogeneration-based approaches. This must include energy-efficient technologies with lower greenhouse gas emissions and optimized cost, performance, and reliability. This paper presents the economic and environmental benefits associated with power technologies such as thermionics and solid oxide fuel cells. Hybrid configurations consisting of heat pumps, power systems, and renewable photovoltaics in cogeneration and trigeneration modes of operation are presented. The role of such technologies in lowering CO2 emissions while improving energy resiliency and serving the needs of underprivileged communities is discussed. The key barriers of affordability and potential solutions for large-scale implementation of these promising technologies are reviewed. Case studies demonstrating the influence of power rating, electrical efficiency, design configuration, carbon dioxide intensity of the grid, and fuel on annual greenhouse gas emissions are presented for residential and commercial buildings.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Financing and Implementing Resilience Products

This fact sheet defines common resilience improvements and provides key considerations for identifying, prioritizing, and implementing these improvements across a commercial building portfolio. It also discusses common barriers to resilience improvements and reviews various third-party financing solutions that can help overcome these barriers.

CHP↗

Rudder/Fin Seals Investigated for the X-38 Re-Entry Vehicle

NASA is developing the X-38 vehicle that will demonstrate the technologies required for a potential crew return vehicle for the International Space Station. This vehicle would serve both as an ambulance for medical emergencies and as an evacuation vehicle for the space station. Control surfaces on the X-38 (body flaps and rudder/fin assemblies) require high temperature seals to limit hot gas ingestion and the transfer of heat to underlying low temperature structures. Working with the NASA Johnson Space Center, the Seals Team at the NASA Glenn Research Center completed a series of tests to further characterize baseline seal designs for the rudder/fin interfaces of the X-38. The structures of the rudder/fin assembly and its associated seals are shown in the the preceding illustration. Tests performed at Glenn indicated that exposure of the seals in a compressed state at simulated seal re-entry temperatures resulted in a large permanent set and loss of seal resiliency. This could be of concern because the seals are required to maintain contact with the sealing surfaces while the vehicle goes through the maximum re-entry heating cycle to prevent hot gases from leaking past the seals and damaging interior low-temperature structures. To simulate conditions in which the seals may become unloaded during use, such as when they take on a large permanent set, Glenn researchers performed room temperature flow and compression tests to determine seal flow rates, resiliency, and unit loads under minimal loads. Flow rates through an unloaded (i.e., 0-percent compression) double seal arrangement were twice those of a double seal compressed to the 20-percent design compression level. These flow rates are being used in thermal analyses to predict the effect of flow through the seals on over-all seal temperatures. Compression test results showed that seal unit loads and contact pressures were below the limits that Johnson had set as goals for the seals. In the rudder/fin seal location, the seals are in contact with shuttle thermal tiles and are moved across the tiles as the rudder is rotated during re-entry. Low seal unit loads and contact pressures are required to limit the loads on these tiles and minimize any damage that the seals could cause. A series of tests were performed on these seals in NASA Ames Research Center's arc jet facility. The arc jet facility approximates relevant thermal environments that a seal or other structure would be subjected to during extreme heating conditions such as those experienced during space vehicle re-entry. Eleven tests were completed, including one test in which no seal was installed in the gap to examine the flow of heat down into the gap. The seal was compressed between stationary insulation tiles and a movable elevon that was rotated during the test to deflect the arc jet exhaust into the seal gap. Peak seal temperatures as high as 2000 F were reached during the 5-min tests. Results of these tests indicate satisfactory performance of the seal for single-use (e.g., X-38) applications. The results of these tests were shared with the NASA Johnson Space Center and are being used to validate aerothermostructural analysis codes that predict seal temperatures under these conditions. The tests performed at Glenn have provided valuable information to Johnson about the performance of the seals that they are considering using in the rudder/fin location of the X-38 vehicle. Glenn and Johnson are currently defining what additional work needs to be done to develop the final rudder/fin seal design for the X-38 vehicle.

Dunlap, Patrick H., Jr.↗

Jet Fuel Production at the Pittsburgh Airport: GTL via Fischer-Tropsch Synthesis

The Pittsburgh International Airport (PIT)—with the Allegheny County Airport Authority (which manages PIT)—has established itself as a leader in resiliency by becoming the first major United States (U.S.) airport to have a self-sustaining microgrid, providing electricity, heating, and cooling for airport operations. The microgrid is powered by natural gas and solar power produced on the airport property and was completed in Summer 2021. This study examines the feasibility of producing jet fuel at the airport to provide a secure supply of aviation fuel, furthering PIT’s ability to weather supply disruptions and operate self-sufficiently. Gas-to-liquids (GTL) is a commercially available technology that converts natural gas to liquid hydrocarbons, including synthetic jet fuel. A GTL facility at PIT could convert natural gas from onsite wells to jet fuel, effectively doubling the onsite fuel stores in the event of a supply disruption. Moreover, GTL provides a pathway to renewable jet fuel production and reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the aviation sector, particularly if renewable natural gas (RNG) is used as a feedstock or other renewable energy sources are used for energy inputs. This study has found that it would be technically feasible to construct and operate a GTL facility on PIT’s property. The approximately 6,000-barrel per day (BPD) facility evaluated would produce nearly 70 million (MM) gallons (gal) of synthetic jet fuel per year, which could supplant nearly all (85 percent) current jet fuel consumption at PIT. Given the current blend limitation of 50 percent Fischer-Tropsch fuels by volume, the plant would have excess production capacity available for the United States Air Force (USAF) Pittsburgh Air Reserve Station and the USAF 171st Air Refueling Wing co-located at the airport.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Distributed clean energy opportunities for US oil refinery operations

The oil and gas industry is increasingly seeking operational improvements to reduce costs and emissions while improving resilience. This study describes techno-economic analysis of opportunities for distributed energy resources that could be integrated to support oil and gas companies’ economic, environmental, and energy resiliency goals. Specifically, the analysis evaluates solar photovoltaics, wind turbines, battery energy storage, landfill gas, biomass, municipal solid waste-to-energy, solar steam for process heat, combined heat and power, and electrolyzers for hydrogen production at two hypothetical refineries, one located in Louisiana and the other in southern California. These technologies could reduce the sites’ consumption of grid electricity and/or natural gas and thus can help reduce emissions. This study employs the ReOPT tool and System Advisor Model to evaluate the techno-economic potential for clean energy technologies to support refineries in achieving energy goals, including energy cost savings, resiliency, and emissions reductions. Results indicate that the associated costs of emissions reductions via several distributed clean energy technologies are competitive with other emissions reduction strategies such as energy efficiency, reducing flaring, direct carbon capture and sequestration, and markets under certain conditions. There are also cost beneficial opportunities for the use of renewable energy for refining, especially for resilience, depending on local conditions such as resources and utility costs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Learning-Based Building Flexibility Estimation and Control to Improve Microgrid Economics and Resilience: Preprint

This paper proposes a learning-based building flexibility estimation and control framework to improve system economics and resilience. A data-driven building load flexibility model consisting of weather forecasting and estimating load consumption is proposed to quantify building heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) load flexibility. A reinforcement learning-based microgrid controller is proposed to dispatch distributed generators, distributed energy resources, and build HVAC loads while taking flexibility information as one of the inputs. Simulation analysis is conducted on the model of a real microgrid in California. The effectiveness of the proposed learning-based building flexibility estimation and control in reducing microgrid energy costs and improving the sustainability of critical loads is demonstrated.

building load flexibility↗

Oilwell Conversion (Well API 121913310501) to Geothermal Heat Storage Well for Flexible Electricity Storage

Geothermal growth is limited by a lack of geographically dispersed high-temperature thermal resources and high initial upfront investment in characterization and well construction. This project intended to address the challenges of energy supply intermittency and enhance grid resilience, reliability, and energy security by storing energy provided from currently available renewable resources in the subsurface to harvest it a later time during at-peak energy demand. This project intended to improve geothermal adoption, reduce initial project risk, and improve price competitiveness through utilizing existing oil and gas infrastructure such as non-productive wells, non-economic fields, dry holes, and orphaned wells. The project also intended to address the lack of geographically dispersed thermal resources and enhance grid resilience, reliability, and energy security by introducing an economical method for storing energy from currently available renewable resources in the subsurface for usage during at-peak energy demand. During this research, the project furthered the understanding of the feasibility of utilizing abandoned oil and gas wells as geothermal heat storage wells. The project team investigated the heat storage and hydrogeological characteristics of subsurface reservoirs in the Illinois Basin to evaluate their response to heat injection for determining the evolution of temperature profiles and heat losses over time using existing and available data sets. The project team then performed modeling and simulation to evaluate the heat losses of returning fluids during heat extraction. The outputs were used to select an optimal candidate reservoir and location in Southern Illinois. The team designed and performed a small-scale field test in an existing oil well to refine the model and to demonstrate the permitting and regulatory pathways necessary for the conversion of oil and gas assets to geothermal use. The field test also serves as a proof of concept and can guide the procedures for future research and implementation. Additionally, the project team, conducted initial market research and customer discovery to develop a go to market strategy for an Advanced Geothermal Energy Storage (AGES) system. The project team in this research also identified the parameters to be refined in future research, to improve the current go to market strategy economic model. To this end several subject matter experts were also identified to assist in future research with geothermal infrastructure setup, energy storage policy and law, energy storage market demand, potential siting based on demand etc. Future research will involve further sophistication of the site commercial modeling, implementing a larger-scale test, and further refinement of the thermodynamic modeling/simulation process. The output will be lifecycle costs and economics suitable for comparison to alternative approaches from a validated full-scale demonstration for venture capital investment into this technology. The project successfully demonstrated the ability to leverage existing oilfield infrastructure, permits, and land access and leasing agreements, to enable geothermal storage projects to come online faster and cheaper than a greenfield development could. This technology could allow for greater energy independence and security through long-term energy storage solutions. The longer duration allows for greater storage for renewables currently limited by hours-long storage durations of lithium-ion. The AGES system would support the growth of renewable energy farms, and provide greater opportunities for a cleaner energy infrastructure.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Heat-Related Mortality in a Warming Climate: Projections for 12 U.S. Cities

Heat is among the deadliest weather-related phenomena in the United States, and the number of heat-related deaths may increase under a changing climate, particularly in urban areas. Regional adaptation planning is unfortunately often limited by the lack of quantitative information on potential future health responses. This study presents an assessment of the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality in 12 cities using 16 global climate models, driven by two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. Although the magnitude of the projected heat effects was found to differ across time, cities, climate models and greenhouse pollution emissions scenarios, climate change was projected to result in increases in heat-related fatalities over time throughout the 21st century in all of the 12 cities included in this study. The increase was more substantial under the high emission pathway, highlighting the potential benefits to public health of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Nearly 200,000 heat-related deaths are projected to occur in the 12 cities by the end of the century due to climate warming, over 22,000 of which could be avoided if we follow a low GHG emission pathway. The presented estimates can be of value to local decision makers and stakeholders interested in developing strategies to reduce these impacts and building climate change resilience.

heat-related mortality↗

Energy efficiency and thermal resilience analysis for row houses using representative building energy models

Row houses, a prevalent medium-density urban archetype, were popularized during industrial era to accommodate the working class in the U.S. cities. Today, many of these structures are deteriorating, exacerbating the energy cost for residents with limited economic resources. Moreover, many households that lack Air Conditioning (AC) are vulnerable to extreme summer heat, an issue expected to worsen in the future. Energy-efficient retrofits can help mitigate these challenges. However, current literature provides limited insight into how existing building energy codes impact the energy efficiency and thermal resilience of row houses in current and future weather scenarios. This study provides a detailed method to address this gap by employing calibrated representative energy models of row houses as a baseline, and evaluating the annual energy savings and summertime thermal safety improvements from code compliant retrofits under current and future typical weather conditions. Using Baltimore City as a case study, results show that under current weather, retrofitting row houses yields significant energy savings along with notable thermal resilience improvements. The end unit row house realizes higher energy savings, whereas the interior unit experiences greater thermal resilience improvement after retrofitting. In future, retrofitted row houses can still save energy, but residents will face numerous hours of fatal indoor temperatures without AC in summer. Additionally, findings reveal stark zone-wise variations in thermal safety, and elevated humidity risks in certain zones post-retrofit, emphasizing the need for zonal retrofit strategies and better natural ventilation strategies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Development of Ceramic Fibers for Reinforcement in Composite Materials

Refinements of the vertical arc fiberizing apparatus resulted in its ability to fiberize very different refractory glasses having wide ranges of properties. Although the apparatus, was originally designed as a laboratory research tool for the evaluation of many compositions daily, up to one quarter pound of fibers of a single composition could be produced in an 8-hour day. Fibers up to six and a half feet long were produced with the apparatus. Studies were conducted of two methods of fiberizing refractory glasses requiring rapid freezing from the melt. The first method consisted of fiberizing droplets of molten glass passing through an annular nozzle. The second method consisted of reconstructing the annular nozzle in. the shape of a horseshoe to achieve a shorter delay in blasting a molten droplet from the tip of a rod. Both methods were judged feasible for producing fibers of glasses requiring rapid freezing. The first method would be more amenable to volume fiber production. Studies of induction heating for fiber formation did not lead to its designation as a very efficient heating method. Problems. remain to be solved, in the design of a suitable susceptor for a higher heating rate, in protecting the susceptor from oxidation with an inert gas, in contamination of the melt from a refractory crucible, and in the protective radiation shielding of the induction concentrator coil. It is not considered practical to continue studies of this heating method. In the course of this program 151 refractory glass compositions were evaluated for fiber, forming characteristics. Of the various types of materials studied, the following showed promise in producing acceptable refractory fibers: sIlica- spinel (magnesium aluminate), silica- spinel-zirconia, silica-zirconia, silica-zinc spinel, aluminum phosphate glasses, and fluoride glasses. Compositions which did not produce acceptable fibers were high zirconia materials, barium spinels, and calcium aluminates. Improvements in the. testing apparatus for single fiber tensile strength increased the precision. of tests conducted on nine fibers. The highest mean tensile strength, a value of 295,000 pounds per square inch, was obtained with R-141 fibers. Treatment of R-74 fibers with anhydrous Linde A-1100 silane finish improved its mean fiber tensile strength by 25 percent. The lapse of time after fiber formation had no measurable effect on tensile strength. A static heating test conducted with various high melting fibers indicated that Fiberfrax and R-108 underwent no significant changes in bulk volume or resiliency on exposure to 2750 degrees Fahrenheit (1510 degrees Centigrade) in an oxidizing atmosphere. For fiber-resin composition fabrication, ten fiber materials were selected on the bases of high fiber yield, fusion temperature, and type of composition. Fiberfrax, a commercial ceramic fiber, was included for comparison. A new, more effective method of removing pellets from blown fibers was developed. The de-pelletized fibers were treated with a silane finish and felted into ten-inch diameter felts prior to resin impregnation. Composites containing 30 percent by weight of CTL 91-LD phenolic resin were molded under high pressure from the impregnated felts and post-cured to achieve optimum properties. Flexural strength, flexural modules of elasticity, and punch shear strength tests were conducted on the composite specimens. The highest average flexural strength obtained was 19,958 pounds per square inch with the R-74-fiber-resin composite. This compares very favorably with the military specification of 13,000 pounds per square inch flexural strength for randomly oriented fiber reinforced composites. The highest punch shear strength (11,509 pounds per square inch) was obtained with the R-89 fiber-resin composite. The effects of anhydrous fiber finishes on composite strength were not clearly indicated. Plasma arc tests at a heat flux of 550 British Thermal Units per square foot per second on eight composite materials indicated ablation rates generally equivalent to Fiberglas-Micarta No. 259-2. The composite reinforced with R-99 fibers had an average ablation rate of 0.008 inch per second and appears quite promising on the basis of these tests. Preliminary studies for processing fibers into yarn and fabric were conducted with R-99 fibers. The use of certain organic gums aided in 2 fabricating by hand several relatively strong yarns and a crude fabric swatch. This indicated the practicality of developing techniques for processing these fibers into yarn and fabric without significant damage to the fibers.

Gates, L. E.↗