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DOE OSTI2021

Markets and Economic Requirements for Fission Batteries and Other Nuclear Systems

Fission Batteries (FBs) are nuclear reactors defined by five characteristics which enable large-scale deployment: cost competitive, standardized sizes for economic mass production, easy installation and removal, secure and safe unattended operation with high reliability. FBs are not defined by technology or power level. Technical and market considerations suggest that most FBs will produce 20 to 30 MWt. This proceedings reports on the outcomes of two workshops that were held in January 2021 to better define markets and economic challenges for FBs. Three major markets were identified. The largest market is the industrial and commercial heat market. There are about 4000 industrial users (excluding utilities) that require more than one megawatt of heat. The number of customers versus size of heat demand was determined. In a low-carbon world there is the potential for many additional customers—including expanded biofuels production and district heat. The second market is for non-grid electricity. This includes co-generation plants that produce heat and electricity for a single customer. The third market is the maritime market with ~100,000 ships worldwide. In the United States, natural gas is the low-cost energy option today and will remain so unless constraints or taxes impact its use. If restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions, the FB competition includes natural gas with carbon capture, biofuels, hydrogen and grid electricity. Natural gas with carbon capture is not economically viable on a small scale. Biofuels may be expensive but may be the economically preferred option for locations with small energy demands of a few megawatts. Hydrogen is a potential competitor with many of the characteristics of natural gas. Grid electricity is not a competitive source of heat. For FBs to be economically competitive, the price of delivered heat must be $20-50/MWh ($6-15/million BTU). The economically competitive range for non-grid electricity is estimated at $70-100/MWh. These electricity prices are competitive with the retail prices of electricity in many parts of the United States for the customer. FBs are not expected to be competitive selling wholesale electricity to the grid. To achieve the aforementioned cost targets for heat and electricity markets, FB designers must (1) maximize the power output within the constraints of a FB (e.g., truck transportability, passive decay heat removal), (2) drastically reduce the size of onsite staff, (3) adopt core designs with low fuel costs (enrichment and fabrication), and (4) develop a system design that is efficiently manufactured in factories. The business case depends upon more than being just a replacement for natural gas. The largest incentives for adoption of FBs is where they create new markets and new sources of revenue. An example is the paper and pulp industry that burns biomass wastes to provide heat and electricity to make paper. An external heat source could meet the demand for heat and electricity by the paper process and enable converting waste biomass into liquid biofuels rather than burning to provide heat. Other markets, such as data centers, are driven by special energy requirements such as extreme reliability. Most customers are not in the energy business but need heat and electricity to produce a product—a manufactured good, education, retail sales (shopping malls), marine transport or some other product. As a consequence, there will be large incentives to lease rather than own FBs. Leasing avoids the regulatory challenges that remain with the owner of the FB. Leasing creates large incentives for FP standardization of sizes and transportability to maintain the value of the FB at the end of the lease—similar to the leasing of jet engines and aircraft. The economic constraints combined with technical constraints suggest competitive FBs will likely have outputs exceeding 10 MWt. There appear to be little incentives for very long-lived reactor cores because such machines require much larger inventories of fuel. Maintenance requirements and the options to provide technology updates may favor shorter lifetimes (~5 years). The assessment is that there is the potential for FBs to be economically viable and play a major role in global decarbonization in three markets: heat, non-grid electricity and maritime applications.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Potential State Regulatory Pathways to Facilitate Low-Carbon Fuels

States and the federal government are increasingly engaged in the challenges around decarbonizing the electric grid. In particular, regulators, consumers, stakeholders, and utilities recognize the need to carefully consider the role natural gas will play in a decarbonized future. A variety of technology and policy options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions associated with natural gas use are available, including energy efficiency programs, demand reduction tools, strategic electrification, and strategies to reduce emissions from natural gas production, transportation, and consumption. Low-carbon fuels – mainly renewable natural gas (RNG) and clean hydrogen – are being considered an important component of decarbonization goals. RNG and hydrogen may be able to meaningfully reduce emissions from processes independent of geologic natural gas, displacing emissions of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas. Although RNG and hydrogen are not cost-competitive today with geologic natural gas and are smaller in scale and potential than other decarbonization options, they can be explored as potential critical tools to decarbonize sectors that are difficult to electrify or shift off of natural gas entirely, such as air travel, industrial processes, maritime transport, long-distance trucking, space heating on cold days, and railroads (Nadel, 2022). The role of this report is to provide informational context for state utility regulators to understand the impacts of and challenges associated with broader integration of low-carbon fuels, followed by examples of state regulatory actions taken to date to facilitate the development of low-carbon fuels. Setting clear guidance to calculate the environmental benefits of low-carbon fuels and continuing federal and state investments in research and development to reduce costs relative to fossil fuels will be important steps to take to signal the desire to grow the market for these fuels. State public utility commissions may play a key role in setting regulatory frameworks for low-carbon fuels and ensuring that ratepayer funds, if utilized, are done so to further the public interest. This report is intended to summarize decisions that states have made to date on low-carbon fuels. In the spirit of understanding the current market and sharing information, this report provides success stories, and lessons learned across states as regulators implement varying strategies to achieve decarbonization objectives while maintaining their focus on affordability, safety, and reliability of the energy system. The report begins with an introduction of the role of natural gas in the U.S. economy (Section I) and background information on natural gas use, decarbonization, and low-carbon fuels (Section II). Next, the report describes the current market by discussing the scale of current production, emissions intensity, resource potential, and costs of low-carbon fuels compared to geologic natural gas (Section III). Following these sections, the report describes four strategies states have employed to facilitate low-carbon fuels: opening exploratory dockets, approving voluntary tariffs for customers, approving interconnection tariffs for producers, and considering portfolio-wide procurement targets (Section IV). This section lists states that have taken actions in each category, citing utility filings, commission decisions, stakeholder comments, and other relevant sources. Finally, the report concludes with suggested questions regulators may wish to consider regarding low-carbon fuels, in the interest of preparing to make decisions in the future (Section V). These questions include: Are there existing regulatory or technical barriers to voluntary purchases of low-carbon fuels? Can customers work with utilities to procure low-carbon fuels; are producers able to interconnect projects without significant barriers to entry? Should the infrastructure and/or commodity costs of low-carbon fuels be socialized among all ratepayers, or borne solely by the large commercial and industrial (C&I) customers currently driving the market? Should regulated natural gas and/or electric utilities own and operate low-carbon fuel production? How should regulators consider the unique decarbonization potential of low-carbon fuels, particularly for hard-to-abate sectors, in decision-making? Is additional direction or clarity from state policymakers needed? What no-regrets approaches can help facilitate both near-term RNG development and long-term development of hydrogen and other zero-carbon fuels? We collectively wish to express our gratitude to the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management, for supporting this report and other technical assistance resources for state regulators on natural gas topics. State regulators operate under a variety of policy environments, and states have vastly different types of energy resources, infrastructure, and customers. While there is no optimal regulatory, policy, or technological solution that will be successful in every state, state regulators can benefit by exchanging lessons learned with their peers across the country. We look forward to continued engagement with our fellow commissioners, commission staff, NARUC, the U.S. Department of Energy, and other stakeholders to develop sound regulation in the public interest.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Effect of Photovoltaic Module Efficiency on Installed System Costs and Markets in Residential Rooftop Installations in the United States

In this report, we analyze how efficiencies influence residential PV system installed system costs and break-even module prices using a bottom-up cost model. We show that the cost savings associated with efficiency are much higher for area-constrained rooftop than those which are usage-constrained. We also show that simplified models of how efficiency impacts costs overestimate the value of efficiency compared to bottom-up models, particularly for usage-constrained scenarios. We also estimate the fraction of area-constrained residential rooftops in the United States today and explore how that fraction could change in future scenarios with high levels of electrification.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

PHEV Distribution Grid Integration and Smart Systems Testing: Cooperative Research and Development Final Report

To continue NREL's mission, which includes preparing technologies and markets with "speed and scale," NREL researchers will collaborate with Toyota on plug-in electric vehicle technology. Toyota will provide a collection of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles ("PHEVs" [and ultimately including PEVs], collectively, the "Vehicles") to conduct infrastructure interaction testing at NREL facilities. NREL will use available resources in the Vehicle Testing and Integration Facility (VTIF), its staff parking garage with numerous commercial Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment ("EVSEs"), and its Energy Systems Integration Facility (ESIF) to safely execute research experiments that highlight potential distribution system power quality challenges related to plug-in electric vehicles. The expected outcome of this project is a better understanding of the correlation of individual vehicle power quality attributes to a system of vehicles on a distribution network. The data collected and the simulations conducted will be used to guide future experiments and project development that aid in the deployment of plug-in electric vehicles ("PEV").

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Pathway to Zero Energy Windows: Advancing Technologies and Market Adoption

Improving the performance of windows has the potential to reduce U.S. annual energy use by 1.7% and CO2 emissions by 1.9% in 2050. Beyond static windows, dynamic technologies could reduce U.S. annual energy use by 1.6 quads and CO2 emissions by 68 million metric tons. In addition, the widespread adoption of static and dynamic technologies would substantially reduce peak electricity demand from buildings. Beyond energy use and CO2 emissions reductions, improving window performance will increase occupant comfort and well-being. In a new report, Pathway to Zero Energy Windows: Advancing Technologies and Market Adoption, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) outlines multiple avenues for technology development, deployment, and adoption to increase the impact that windows can have on decarbonizing America's buildings.

building energy efficiency↗
DOE OSTI2020

Assessment of the Dominican Republic’s Commercial and Industrial Scale Energy Efficiency Sector

In this paper the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) explores the commercial and industrial (C&I) energy efficiency market in the Dominican Republic, including the market’s current status. During NREL’s engagement with its Dominican counterparts, NREL noted market gaps, identified by both public and private sector market actors, that became the focus of this report. The intent is two-fold. First, to assist potential customers, project financing institutions, and various government agencies understand where the energy efficiency sector stands, in August 2020. Second to help them recognize the scope, scale, and opportunity for energy savings from untapped potential large reductions in energy expenditures. This research identified how savings could be captured through improvements to the enabling environment, technical capacity, and level of activity in the sector. Moreover, it determined that through taking action to catalyze energy efficiency investment, the government could make significant progress towards its self-declared NDC goals, and result in tens of millions of dollars in savings across the Dominican economy for both the private and public sectors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Highly Efficient and Affordable Hybrid System for Hydrogen and Electricity Production (Final Project)

The pursuit of clean, secure, and sustainable energy has sparked significant interest in fuel cells for power generation and electrolyzer cells for hydrogen production. Among all types of fuel and electrolyzer cells, solid oxide cells (SOCs) have emerged as promising candidates due to their high efficiency and versatility. However, conventional oxygen-ion conductive SOCs face several challenges related to their performance and durability associated with their high-temperature operation (≥ 800 ºC). This has led to a growing interest in intermediate-temperature (≤ 650 ºC) proton-conducting solid oxide cells (p-SOCs) as potential alternatives. In collaboration between Phillips 66 and Georgia Tech, this project aims to achieve a 1 kW p-SOCs system to demonstrate the commercial viability of efficient SOC systems. This report addresses four primary areas and key challenges we overcame: (1) development of efficient and durable proton-conducting electrolyte (e.g., BaHf 0.1 Ce 0.7 Yb 0.2 O 3-δ ) and electrode/catalyst materials, (2) large area cell fabrication (10 x 10 cm 2 ), (3) scalable stack design and building (250 W and 1 kW), and (4) demonstration of a 1 kW prototype system. Notably, significant challenges faced during the large area cell fabrication process were addressed by achieving cell flatness, improving fabrication yield, and ensuring electrode/electrolyte interfacial adhesion. Stack designs were also developed, focusing on reducing contact resistance and optimizing stack components (e.g., sealants). These efforts resulted in the achievement of high performance and durability with promising outputs of 250 W and 1 kW. Furthermore, the integration of these stacks into a fuel-powered system was explored, with refinements made to heat management, as well as to pressure and heating conditions. The results demonstrated the potential applicability of our p-SOC technology in commercial energy storage and power generation systems. Additionally, the report discusses techno-economic analysis and a market transformation plan, aiming to evaluate and advance the commercial feasibility of this technology.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Defining a Platform Approach and Market Participation: Data Driven Business Models for Solid State Transformer-Based Synthetic Inertia and Voltage Stability Controls (CRADA Final Report, Project 1, Mod 1)

The primary objective of this project is to determine the incremental value created with the medium voltage solid-state transformer (MV SST) technology to different stakeholders in view of the updated DER grid regulations. This includes studying the benefits of the MV SST technology in a range of use cases for EV and DER penetration including (1) “corridor charging” for EVs and (2) solar plus storage (FERC 2222). The potential customers of this technology include utilities for EV charging, DER installers who must meet utility interconnection requirements, balancing authorities, and DER aggregators. The traditional transformers on the grid could be a limiting factor for the EV-grid integration as the distribution transformers were not designed to handle the dynamic and fluctuating EV charging loads. Thus, the issues such as voltage fluctuations, increased losses and reduced efficiency [1] can negatively impact the grid operation. To address these challenges, transformers with flexibility and adaptability become imperative to meet the evolving energy demands. In this regard, the concept of Medium Voltage Solid-State Transformers.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Energy Storage Technologies and U.S. Department of War Requirements

This report offers an overarching primer the energy storage market and assessment of each technology’s suitability for U.S. Department of War applications. We find that battery energy storage is the most promising technology for energy storage applications in terms of energy density and cost. While commercial and advanced Li-ion can satisfy certain electric mobility (e.g., cars, midsized vehicles) and electric flight application (e.g. drones) needs of DoW, next generation technologies like Li metal solid-state batteries, and conversion chemistries (Li-air, Li-CFx) are needed for heavy duty applications like armored vehicles, tanks, airplanes, jets. Batteries should also be supplemented with technologies such as supercapacitors and next-generation flywheels to provide short bursts of high energy for high power needs. Thermal energy storage solutions (sensible and latent heat) and fuel cells (PEMFC and SOFC) are good alternatives for supporting energy storage applications in terms of energy density and cost. Gravity-based energy storage promises the least energy density with high cost and should only be used for niche DoW applications. Of the different gravity energy storage technologies reviewed, pumped-hydro, flywheel, and compressed air energy storage are promising, while solid gravity energy storage appears the least attractive. Military facilities requiring 14 days of energy storage can benefit from flow batteries, especially commercial VFRBs and next generation iron-air systems. While VFRBs are expensive, iron-air batteries have the coupled benefits of low cost and good energy density promising 100+ hours of storage.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Addressing Market Issues in Electrical Power Systems with Large Shares of Variable Renewable Energy

This paper reports recent findings from IEA Wind TCP Task 25, which compiles international experiences and research related to large-scale integration of wind and other renewable energy. In the paper, we address the main challenges for market integration of variable renewable energy, relating to price formation, cost recovery, balancing and other grid services. The paper gives an overview of recent scenario studies on electricity price impacts of (1) various generation, energy storage and demand types in different markets, and (2) different market designs and energy/climate policies. Studying markets with very high shares of variable renewable energy requires an improved set of analysis tools for forecasting market outcomes, estimating flexibility needs and sources, and assessing resource adequacy. Key market features need to be investigated within these improved analytical capabilities for systems transitioning to high shares of variable renewable energy, storage and flexible demand. System services that can be supported by markets will likely need to be revisited. Finally, this paper identifies open questions and suggested future market design work for supporting systems with very high shares of variable renewable energy, which are to be addressed in follow-up work of Task 25 collaborative research.

cost recovery↗
DOE OSTI2024

Driving Uptake for Energy Efficiency Financing Programs: Marketing and Outreach, Partnership Networks, and Program Design Considerations

Many energy efficiency financing programs could achieve greater uptake and impact by more effectively recruiting participants. This report examines some of the primary factors that have contributed to high participant uptake among successful financing programs. We review best practices in partnerships (Chapter 2), direct marketing (Chapter 3), and program design (Chapter 4) that facilitate robust participation. This report is primarily designed for state and local governments that have established energy efficiency financing programs or are considering doing so and are seeking insight into how they can ramp up program participation. In disseminating lessons learned from well-established programs that have experienced success in their target markets, the objective is to help scale up the large number of energy efficiency financing programs that seek to replicate these successes. This report can inform states, local governments, and other entities that will establish or expand clean energy financing programs with funding made available under the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the Inflation Reduction Act.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Storage Futures Study - Distributed Solar and Storage Outlook: Methodology and Scenarios

This presentation discusses the fourth report in NREL’s Storage Futures Study (SFS) publications. The SFS is a multiyear research project that explores the role and impact of energy storage in the evolution and operation of the U.S. power sector. The SFS is designed to examine the potential impact of energy storage technology advancement on the deployment of utility-scale storage and the adoption of distributed storage, and the implications for future power system infrastructure investment and operations. This report describes the expanded capabilities of the Distributed Generation Market Demand (dGen) model to analyze the economics of distributed (behind-the-meter) PV paired with battery storage systems and presents projections of adoption for the contiguous United States out to 2050 under a range of scenarios. These scenarios use technology cost and performance assumptions consistent with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s 2020 Standard Scenarios paired with updated battery cost projections and existing policies. Additional scenarios evaluate sensitivities to the value of backup power and DER compensation mechanisms, collectively characterizing the future potential for behind-the-meter storage and identifying key drivers of adoption. Adoption projections of DER and battery storage at high spatial and temporal resolution, as presented in this report, can enable informed planning of technical infrastructure that can help planners capture the benefits and mitigate challenges to support the ongoing trend toward distributed electricity generation.

backup power↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Comprehensive Scientific Survey of Excipients Used in Currently Marketed, Therapeutic Biological Drug Products

The steady development of biotechnology-derived therapeutic biologics over the last few decades has generated drugs that are now standard medical treatments for a range of indications. While the development of protein products has surged in recent years, the formulation and delivery of these complex molecules have relied on drug-specific studies and, in some instances, data from non-proteinaceous drug products. The commonalities, trends, and gaps in excipient technologies used to support the development of therapeutic proteins largely remain unexplored due to the drug-specific nature of many formulations. Using a comprehensive and relational database approach, we aimed to provide a scientific survey of all approved or licensed biotechnology-derived drug products with the goal of providing evidence-based information on common attributes and trending features in protein product excipients. We examined 665 formulations, and 395 unique formulations based on having unique excipients within them, that supported 211 therapeutic proteins as of June 2020. We report the prevalence of each excipient class and excipient chemical used in eight different drug types including monoclonal antibodies, antibody conjugates, cytokines and growth factors, enzymes, polypeptide hormones, pulmonary surfactants, recombinant fusion proteins, and toxins. We also report the prevalence by excipient type among all therapeutic proteins, in the context of each drug’s recommended pH range, concentration ranges for excipients, and route of administration. The results of our analyses indicate certain excipients common to monoclonal antibodies, cytokines, and polypeptide hormones. We also report on excipients unique to protein drug products, such as amino acids, solubilizers, and lyoprotectants. Overall, our report summarizes the current landscape of excipients used in marketed biotechnology-derived therapeutic biologic products.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Innovating High Throughput Hydrogen Stations: Cooperative Research and Development Final Report, CRADA Number CRD-18-00773

Hydrogen stations today serve the emerging market of light duty fuel cell vehicles, primarily in California with over 30 public retail locations. There has been a steady increase in the number of stations open and hydrogen dispensed, especially in the last two years. From 2015 to 2016, the annual amount of hydrogen dispensed increased from 27,400 kg to 109,200 kg, a nearly fourfold increase in just one year. One station dispensed nearly 12,000 kg in the second quarter of 2017. Despite the significant progress, gaps exist between current infrastructure capabilities and future requirements. For example, fuel cell vehicle applications such as buses, medium-duty, and heavy-duty trucks will gain market share and this must be considered as future customers at hydrogen stations. The expected number of light duty fuel cell vehicles in California alone are expected to grow from approximately 4,000 to over 13,000 by 2020, and 37,000 by 2023. To serve the multiple mobile fuel cell technologies and increased demand, hydrogen stations will have to increase output, decrease cost, and improve reliability. To address these challenges, the project team will demonstrate a hydrogen-focused integrated renewable energy production, storage, and transportation fuel distribution/retailing system. The proposed R&D tasks address key challenges related to light duty station/component reliability and development and validation of high flow rate system models for new applications like medium and heavy-duty truck fueling.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2020

Prefabricated Zero Energy Retrofit Technologies: A Market Assessment

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy’s (EERE’s) mission is to “create and sustain American leadership in the transition to a global clean energy economy.” EERE’s vision is a strong and prosperous America powered by clean, affordable, and secure energy. In support of this vision, one of EERE’s strategic pillars is to stimulate the growth of a thriving domestic clean energy manufacturing industry. This report seeks to identify products in the European and U.S. markets that can enable a more integrated and standardized approach to conducting zero energy retrofits, leveraging off-site construction and manufacturing. Greater integration of energy conservation measures into prefabricated building components will further enable efficiency adoption, while reducing project complexity, risks, and costs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

One Year In: Tracking the Impacts of NEM 3.0 on California’s Residential Solar Market

On December 15, 2022, the California Public Utilities Commission passed an overhaul of the net metering program for the state’s investor-owned utilities. The changes replaced the long-standing net energy metering (NEM) tariffs with a net billing tariff (NBT) structure—colloquially known as “NEM 3.0”—which significantly reduces the compensation for behind-the-meter solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. The NEM tariffs remained open for new interconnection applications until April 15, 2023, but after that date, all new interconnection applications were submitted under NBT. Now, one year later, we have an opportunity to evaluate how the California solar market has evolved under this new compensation regime. As a precursor to its annual Tracking the Sun report, Berkeley Lab has released a short technical brief describing key trends in the California residential solar market since the roll-out of the new NBT structure. The purpose of this analysis is to provide empirical insights into how the market has evolved over the past year, confirming some expectations while also revealing several striking surprises.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Global Market Analysis of Microreactors

Microreactors are smaller and simplified versions of nuclear power plants using current generation and advanced nuclear technology designs. The purpose of this report is to assesses the unique capabilities of microreactors and assess potential deployment in specific global markets in the 2030-2050 timeframe, with consideration for regulatory limits. The methods include developing unique microreactor deployment indicators and matching use cases to define future profile markets. Top-down and bottom-up analysis techniques were used to evaluate emerging market trends, derive a range of possible demands, and rank potential markets in 63 countries including current nuclear users and newcomer countries. Deployment is considered from regulatory and planning perspectives. Results indicate significant potential for global deployment of microreactors, but also significant challenges in achieving the technical capacities, meeting regulatory requirements and international accords, achieving competitive costs, and for gaining public acceptance. Profile microreactor markets were identified that include isolated operations, distributed energy, resilient urban applications, marine propulsion, and disaster relief. Market demands could be strong in Western Europe and possibly even the U.S., but particularly strong across Asia and Eastern Europe in isolated operations and distributed energy applications. Build rates in the hundreds of units by 2040 and thousands by 2050 would be needed to attain market penetration at scale.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Starting with Solar: A Preliminary Assessment of Solar Energy Systems in Residential New Construction [Slides]

New homes provide a ready option for states hoping to reduce energy use, as evidenced by the steady increase in energy efficiency requirements in new home building codes. A less common approach is to specifically encourage or require new homes to produce their own carbon-free energy, through the installation of a solar energy system. Adopting these practices nationwide might significantly reduce new home energy use, but the drivers of the new solar home market have not been well studied. Partly filling this gap, this report looks at historical deployment trends of solar on over 500,000 new homes built through 2020 across 19 states and the District of Columbia, most of which were in California. California is a useful test case because if first incentivized in 2007, and more recently required in 2018, new homes to have solar. The report finds that solar adoption rates at roughly 40% in recent years in California eclipse—by a wide margin—rates in other states, which top out near 4%. The presence of California’s New Solar Home Partnership (NSHP) incentives appear strongly correlated with deployment levels, as do builder market share. The Top-10 builders in California installed solar in recent years at rates almost three times the average of non-Top-10 builders in the state. Interestingly, the authors found the same large builders did not install solar at the same elevated rates outside California, which might be related to the lack of incentives, they hypothesize. The report also investigates the characteristics of new solar homes such as living area (i.e., square feet), solar system size, frequency of battery installations, and use of third-party ownership. The authors also include quotes directly from builders to provide context to the findings.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗