SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Normal Distribution”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 235 records · Page 13

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2024

Emittance preservation for the electron arm in a single PWFA-LC stage using quasi-adiabatic plasma density ramp matching sections

Plasma-based acceleration (PBA) is being considered for a next generation linear collider (LC). In some PBA-LC designs for the electron arm, the extreme beam parameters are expected to trigger background ion motion within the witness beam, which can lead to longitudinally varying nonlinear focusing forces and result in an unacceptable emittance growth of the beam. To mitigate this, we propose to use quasi-adiabatic plasma density ramps as matching sections at the entrance and exit of each stage. We match the witness electron beam to the low density plasma entrance, where the beam initially has a large matched spot size so the ion motion effects are relatively small. As the beam propagates in the plasma density upramp, it is quasi-adiabatically focused, and its distribution maintains a non-Gaussian equilibrium distribution in each longitudinal slice throughout the process, even when severe ion collapse has occurred. This only causes small amounts of slice emittance growth. The phase mixing between slices with different betatron frequencies leads to additional projected emittance growth within the acceleration stage. A density downramp at the exit of an acceleration section can eliminate much of the slice and projected emittance growth as the beam and ion motion adiabatically defocuses and decreases, respectively. Simulation results from QuickPIC with Azimuthal Decomposition show that within a single acceleration stage with a 25 GeV energy gain, this concept can limit the projected emittance growth to only ∼2% for a 25 GeV, 100 nm emittance witness beam and ∼20% for a 100 GeV, 100 nm normalized emittance witness beam. The trade-off between the adiabaticity of the plasma density ramp and the initial ion motion at the entrance for a given length of the plasma density ramp is also discussed.

Physics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Detecting Unclassified Electromagnetic Signals for Secure Wireless Communication Using Open Set Recognition

We developed multiple machine learning methods for the detection and classification of new wireless communication waveforms, which is critical for targeted attacks in wireless networks and electronic warfare. Our machine learning models are capable of dynamically detecting security threats in near real time through our advanced open set recognition (OSR) approach. This model has demonstrated significant improvements in the detection of unknown waveforms, thereby enhancing the security and reliability of mission critical communications. Our approach to detecting uncertain security threats is novel; we advanced OSR techniques by incorporating domain knowledge of wireless signals. Specifically, we combined time and frequency domain model features to enhance the model’s performance. Utilizing an OSR approach eliminates the need for training data to be distributed similarly to the deployment environment and removes the requirement for the training set to contains all possible threat classes. This is crucial because it is often infeasible to determine and characterize all potential security threats in advance. Our model were trained on simulated data, generated in partnership with the University at Albany, State of New York. The data set contained a diverse array of wireless signals, including those with additive white Gaussian noise and multipath signals, with and without line of sight. This comprehensive training set allowed us to optimize our models to detect unknown waveforms under various challenging scenarios, such as low signal-to-noise ratios. By training on various waveforms, varying signal-to-noise ratio, and different sample sizes under normal conditions, our models were fine tuned to perform effectively in challenging environments.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2025

An Experimental and Theoretical Study of the Valence Shell Electronic Structure of Nitromethane

Vibrationally resolved CH 3 NO 2 and CD 3 NO 2 photoelectron spectra and angular distribution parameters, β, have been measured in the photon energy range 20–80 eV. This allows a comprehensive investigation of conflicting literature interpretations of the two outermost photoelectron bands, complemented by high-level calculations characterizing the three O lone-pair-based orbital ionizations expected in this region. Franck–Condon simulations allow the regular vibrational progressions observed at the beginning of the first and second bands to be assigned as predominantly modes v 5 and v 6 of the D 0 and D 2 cation states, respectively. Irregular structuring observed midband in both bands is attributed to avoided crossings between the adiabatic D 0 /D 1 and D 1 /D 2 states as identified in potential surface cuts taken along the v 5 and v 6 normal mode coordinates. The associated D 0 /D 1 and D 1 /D 2 conical intersections were located and characterized, allowing possible vibronic coupling and its impact on the photoelectron spectra of the D 0 , D 1 , and D 2 states to be discussed. This helps rationalize the apparently missing D 1 ionization in this region, although some contribution by this state may be identifiable in the β-parameter spectra. Theoretical analysis of the complete valence region spectrum identifies the early breakdown of the independent electron model beyond these first two bands.

Powis, Ivan [University of Nottingham (United King↗

DOE OSTI2025

Adoption of AI in the Utility T&D Sector: Use Cases, Consequence, Assessment and Benefits

Digital transformation and utilization of artificial intelligence (AI) in the electric grid are fundamentally changing the industry’s approach to common problems and enabling a broader paradigm shift in grid planning and operations. The change in approach is circularly both enabling and driving modernization, with load growth and reliable management of data center and AI infrastructure shifting away from planning approaches with relatively predictable behaviors and toward a mix of consumer and industrial choices that surpass human cognitive abilities to process. This movement has potential to condition humans to not understand the system on which the AI depends, while requiring it for development of the necessary infrastructure. Approaches which would address most likely grid conditions and events, such as faults, aging of equipment, and weather, now must also account for large loads which shift not based upon weather or time of day, but the computational load. Quantifying computational load is independent of the traditional grid forecasting variables, where a data center’s aggregate load is determined by user and AI system behavior and decoupled from normal grid planning and operations. AI is both the cause and solution for these challenges, with new grid planning tools integrating massive amounts of decisions into frameworks.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

State Spotlight on Resilience: The Michigan Public Service Commission and Data Informed Accountability

Resilience activities are an emerging area within regulatory utility policy. As resilience frameworks develop, many Public Utility Commissions (PUCs) are looking to initiate resilience activities and have identified enhancing grid reliability as a practical starting point. Reliability describes the grid’s ability to deliver electricity steadily and without interruptions under normal or “blue sky” conditions. Reliability is measured using industry standard metrics such as outage frequency (SAIFI) and outage duration (SAIDI). Resilience is broader, reflecting the grid’s ability to both withstand and recover from disruptions, particularly those caused by extreme events such as severe storms. A reliable grid minimizes routine disruptions; a resilient grid ensures the system can recover quickly when disruptions occur, preventing them from escalating into widespread or prolonged crises.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

X‑ray Coherent Diffractive Imaging of Large Helium Nanodroplets Doped with Small Molecules

We report the first X-ray coherent diffractive imaging experiment on molecule-doped helium nanodroplets. It complements previous work, where we reported single-shot X-ray coherent diffractive imaging studies of Xe dopant clusters formed in 4He and 3He droplets. These noble gas clusters were used to visualize the impact of rotational excitation of the droplets on the spatial distribution of atomic dopants within the droplets, and to study the differences and connections between quantum and classical droplet rotational motion. Here, we expand our studies to the molecular dopants CF4, CHF3, CH3CN, and SF6, imaged with 1.5 keV photons. We find multiple Bragg spots in the diffraction patterns of molecule-doped droplets with radii of approximately 600 nm, which provide evidence that molecules form elongated clusters with preferential alignment along the angular momentum axis of the 4He droplets, in agreement with our previous results on the aggregation of Xe clusters on quantum vortices. Real-space reconstructions of molecular dopant cluster density profiles are obtained for droplets with smaller radii of approximately 300 nm. The diffuse images suggest the formation of low-density, potentially porous, molecular clusters upon aggregation at T = 0.4 K in 4He droplets. In the normal fluid 3He droplets, molecules aggregate into loose clusters on the droplets' equator, similar to previous observations for Xe atoms. Time-of-flight mass spectra reveal that the doped helium nanodroplet moieties fragment extensively into constituent atomic ions, producing only a small fraction of molecular fragment ions. The findings are discussed in the context of previously proposed schemes to use He droplets as potential tamper materials for ultrafast X-ray imaging experiments.

Feinberg, AlexandraJ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Long range energy-energy correlator at the LHC

We study the forward-backward azimuthal angular correlations of hadrons in association with multiparticle production in the central rapidity region in proton-proton collisions at the LHC. We apply the nucleon energy-energy correlator framework, where the spinning gluon distribution introduces a nontrivial cos⁡(2⁢𝜙) asymmetries. We will demonstrate that the fundamental helicity structure of quantym chromodynamics (QCD) amplitudes predicts a unique power counting rule: cos⁡(2⁢𝜙) asymmetry starts at 𝒪⁡(𝛼$^{2}_{s}$) order for dijet, 𝒪⁡(𝛼 𝑠 ) for three jet and 𝒪⁡(1) for four (and more) jet productions. Our results will help us to understand the longstanding puzzle of nearside ridge behavior observed in high multiplicity events of 𝑝⁢𝑝 collisions at the LHC.

Quantum chromodynamics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Evolution of chirality from transverse wobbling in 135 Pr

Chirality is a distinct signature that characterizes triaxial shapes in nuclei. We report the first observation of chirality in the nucleus 135 Pr using a high-statistics Gammasphere experiment with the 123 Sb( 16 O, 4n) 135 Pr reaction. Two chiral-partner bands with the configuration π(1h11/2 )1 ⊗ ν(1h 11/2 ) −2 have been identified in this nucleus. Angular distribution analyses of the ΔI = 1 transitions connecting the two bands reveal a dominant dipole character, and quasiparticle triaxial rotor model calculations show good agreement with the data. Since the simultaneous observation of chirality and transverse wobbling in 135 Pr relies critically on these angular distribution results, we also address and refute the experimental and theoretical criticisms raised in a recent work by Lv et al., presenting additional evidence that further strengthens our interpretation. Furthermore, this marks the first observation of both hallmarks of triaxiality—chirality and wobbling—in the same nucleus.

90 ≤ A ≤ 149↗

DOE OSTI2025

From Structure to Function: Zn/Mn-Modified Maghemite as an Advanced Nanoplatform for Magnetic Hyperthermia and Radionuclide Therapy

The development of nanoplatforms capable of efficient heat generation and stable radionuclide delivery is essential for effective bimodal cancer therapy. Here, in this study, binary (Fe–M) and ternary (Fe–M–M′) metal oxide nanoparticles were synthesized via a polyol method optimized to produce flower-like γ-Fe 2 O 3 (maghemite) structures, with M and M′ representing Zn and/or Mn. Comprehensive structural and magnetic characterization was conducted to explain the relationship between composition, defect structure, and hyperthermic performance. The analyses revealed that cation substitution induced an Fe-site vacancy, primarily at octahedral positions, leading to local structural distortions, as confirmed by powder X-ray diffraction and pair distribution function analysis. The optimized composition, with Zn/Mn/Fe = 0.040:0.182:1, exhibited the highest concentration of vacancies and structural disorder. These vacancies altered the bonding environment, enhancing magnetic interactions at tetrahedral sites while weakening those at the octahedral positions. The resulting multicore nanoflowers (20–63 nm; core size 13–18 nm) displayed strong heating performance, with intrinsic loss power ranging from 0.34 to 5.77 nHm 2 kg –1 . The optimized sample achieved a temperature increase of 30 °C within 2 min and a specific absorption rate of 369 W g –1 . This composition was further coated with citrate (CA) and successfully radiolabeled with 177 Lu, achieving a radiolabeling yield of 92.7% and excellent stability, thus forming a robust nanoplatform for combined magnetic hyperthermia and radionuclide therapy. Biological evaluation of the optimized S5 composition revealed selective cytotoxicity toward HeLa and LS174 cells, while toxicity was significantly lower to A549, A375, and normal MRC-5 cells. Citrate coating of S5 nanoparticles (S5@CA) drastically reduced their cytotoxicity across all tested cell lines (IC 50 > 200 μg mL –1 ), confirming their enhanced biocompatibility for therapeutic applications. In HeLa cells subjected to magnetic hyperthermia, the viability decreased to approximately 84% after 30 min and 61% after 60 min of treatment, demonstrating the sustained hyperthermic effect at a controlled working temperature of 48 °C. These results underscore the effectiveness of cation substitution and vacancy engineering in tailoring the functional properties of maghemite-based nanomaterials for advanced multimodal cancer therapies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Effect of Strength of Soluble and Solid Acid Catalysts on Selectivity in Aldol Reactions

Aldol reactions can follow the classical condensation path and produce an α,β-unsaturated carbonyl compound and water, however in some cases, aldol chemistry may be steered towards a fission that gives an olefin and a carboxylic acid. This investigation examines how the strength of Brønsted acid sites—both in homogeneous and heterogeneous catalysis—controls these two pathways and their kinetics. The cross-aldol reaction between benzaldehyde and 3-pentanone served as test case. Batch reactions, conducted in toluene as solvent at a temperature of 140 °C under autogenous pressure, were analyzed by GC and in situ ATR-FTIR spectroscopy to determine product distributions and rate constants for condensation and fission pathways. A series of soluble acids including a family of sulfonic acids mostly favored the condensation pathway, with formic acid as the weakest in the series by its pKa being inactive for aldol chemistry. Significant amounts of fission products were rare except for the known selectivity of phosphoric acid, and the circumstances were difficult to delineate. For the sulfonic acid family, the logarithm of the first-order condensation rate constants scaled only roughly with pKa (water) values, whereas a good correlation was obtained with calculated deprotonation Gibbs energies in toluene. A series of H-forms of isomorphously substituted beta zeolites, HESiBEA with E = Al, Ga, Fe, or B, favored the fission pathway. Site density and site strength were characterized by calorimetric measurements of the heats of adsorption of isopropylamine, which decreased in the order Al > Ga, Fe > B. The logarithm of the site-normalized first-order fission rate constants scaled roughly with the heats of adsorption and correlated excellently with reported deprotonation energies. In conclusion, acid strength mainly affects activity and can be seen as a pre-requisite for either aldol condensation or fission chemistry, whereas additional, yet to be full clarified catalyst properties and reaction conditions are required to steer aldol chemistry towards fission selectivity.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Impact of QCD energy evolution on observables in heavy-ion collisions

Here, we study how the inclusion of energy dependence as dictated by quantum chromodynamic (QCD) small-x evolution equations affects key observables in ultra-relativistic heavy-ion collisions. Specifically, we incorporate JIMWLK evolution into the IP-Glasma framework, which serves as the initial condition for a simulation pipeline that includes viscous relativistic hydrodynamics and a hadronic afterburner. This approach enables a consistent modeling of highly energetic nuclei across varying Bjorken-x values, which are relevant for different collision energies and rapidity regions. In comparison to the standard IP-Glasma setup without small-x evolution, we observe pronounced changes in particle multiplicities and spectral distributions, especially in smaller systems and at the highest available energies. We further explore effects on anisotropic flow observables and correlations between mean transverse momentum and elliptic flow. Our findings underscore the critical role of nonlinear QCD evolution in accurately modeling the early stages of heavy-ion collisions, as well as its implications for extracting transport properties of the quark-gluon plasma.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Laser Powder Directed Energy Deposition of Steels for Nuclear Applications

This comprehensive investigation examines the structure–property relationships in two nuclear alloy systems—Alloy 709 (A709) austenitic stainless steel and Grade 92 (G-92) ferritic/martensitic (F/M) steel—manufactured via directed energy deposition (DED) for sodium-cooled fast reactor applications. This study establishes the fundamental mechanisms for controlling microstructures for optimizing the mechanical performance of additively manufactured nuclear materials through systematic heat treatment optimization and multiscale characterization. As-deposited A709 steel develops a complex multiscale strengthening architecture consisting of a fine cellular solidification structure with diameter of 2-3 µm within10–50 µm grains, elevated dislocation densities from rapid thermal cycling, and grain boundary precipitates that activate concurrent Hall–Petch, dislocation, and precipitation hardening mechanisms to achieve exceptional properties [yield strength (YS): 603 MPa, ultimate tensile strength (UTS): 844 MPa, Vickers hardness: 220 HV] that achieve a 44% superior strength compared to that of the wrought material. Heat treatments produce different results. Solution annealing (SA) dissolves the cellular structure and reduces the hardness to 190 HV. Precipitation treatment (PT) keeps the cellular structure but adds carbides, allowing the hardness to reach 205 HV. The best approach combines both treatments (SA+PT) and creates uniform precipitate distributions with M 23 C 6 carbides at the grain boundaries and MX carbonitrides in the matrix, achieving a hardness of 195 HV. However, directional differences persist, with a 12%–15% strength variation between orientations due to the inherited layered microstructural architecture that survives aggressive heat treatment. While tensile testing at 550°C demonstrates 40%–50% thermal softening with dynamic strain aging, DED A709 steel still maintains a 71% higher YS than that of the wrought material. Ion irradiation studies (100–400 dpa) of DED A709 steel reveal progressive radiation damage with increasing void density and radiation-induced segregation causing nickel enrichment and chromium depletion, which will ultimately compromise mechanical properties. As-deposited G-92 exhibits exceptional strength (UTS: 1650–1700 MPa, 430 HV) through a complex microstructure containing both ferrite and martensite phases, a high geometrically necessary dislocation (GND) density (17.04×10 14 /m 2 ), and fine carbides. Heat treatments create distinct changes. Normalizing produces fresh martensite with the highest hardness (460 HV) and an increased GND density (20.23×10 14 /m 2 ). Tempering develops dual precipitation systems and reduces the hardness to 290 HV. The optimal approach uses sequential normalizing plus tempering, achieving balanced properties with the lowest hardness (250 HV) and a reduced GND density (11.01×10 14 /m 2 ). A processing-dependent anisotropy is observed: horizontal specimens achieve superior ductile behavior, while vertical specimens exhibit brittle failure. A tempering heat treatment successfully mitigates this anisotropic behavior by transforming the hard martensitic as-deposited structure into tempered martensite enabling both horizontal and vertical specimens to exhibit similar stress–strain characteristics with visible necking behavior. Remarkably, testing at 550°C reveals a reversal in the anisotropy, where as-deposited specimens achieve near isotropy with superior thermal stability (a 15%–20% strength reduction), while tempered specimens develop an orientation dependence with a 25%–30% strength reduction. Both alloy systems demonstrate that DED processing creates specimens with a superior strength through refined microstructural features, though with distinct strengthening mechanisms—austenitic through cellular structures and precipitates versus F/M through phase transformations and precipitates. Heat treatment optimization requires alloy-specific approaches, with A709 benefiting from controlled precipitation while G-92 requires careful phase transformation control. The results show that DED manufacturing can produce nuclear materials with exceptional performance, but directional effects and temperature-dependent behavior must be carefully considered for reactor component design and qualification.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Extreme Longitudinal Compression of Optimized Beams for MEV Ultrafast Electron Diffraction (Final Technical Report)

We worked out the design of a high repetition rate MeV energy ultrafast electron diffraction instrument based on the existing Cornell photoinjector, which can readily be applied to the presented findings. This example is a blueprint of other similarly arranged UED setups. Using particle tracking simulations in conjunction with multiobjective genetic algorithm optimization, we explored the smallest bunch lengths, emittance, and probe spot sizes achievable. As two limits, we defined stroboscopic conditions (with single electrons per pulse) and operation with 10 5 electrons per bunch which may be suitable for single-shot diffraction images. In the stroboscopic case, the flexibility provided by the many cavity bunching and acceleration allows for longitudinal phase space linearization without a higher harmonic field, providing sub-fs bunch lengths at the sample. Given low emittance photoemission conditions, these small bunch lengths can be maintained with probe transverse sizes at the single micron (1 μm) scale and below. In the case of 10 5 electrons per pulse, we simulated state-of-the-art 5D brightness conditions: rms bunch lengths of 10 fs with 3-nm normalized emittances, while permitting repetition rates as high as 1.3 GHz. We showed that in conjunction with collimating apertures, a novel focusing scheme achieves very high-quality emittance compensation for the central core of the beam composing 40% of particles, for a resulting beam size of 5 μm (rms). Finally, to aid in the design of new SRF-based ultrafast electron diffraction machines, we simulated the trade-off between the number of cavities used and achievable bunch length and emittance. In the longitudinal dimension, we made use of the fact that MeV UED requires much lower energy than the 15-MeV maxi mum energy of Cornell’s CBETA injector, and we may therefore use several of the SRF cavities for bunch length compression. In practice, we used a genetic optimization algorithm to choose the phases and amplitudes of the cavities appropriately for optimal bunching. In the zero space charge case, we found that bunching and acceleration are distributed across the six cavities in a way that produces a linearizing effect. And we showed that the ultimate bunch length can be limited by time-of-flight differences arising from transverse size and transverse momentum spread. The space charge code developed and used for this development is now permanent part of the Bmad accelerator simulation code and has already contributed to other developments, e.g., for the EIC electron cooler design.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Thermodynamic stability of a spin microemulsion in Rashba spin-orbit-coupled bosons

Recent finite-temperature numerical simulations have unveiled a quantum “spin” microemulsion analog, found by raising the temperature of a stripe supersolid phase in a Rashba spin-orbit coupled Bose gas. This microemulsion state is a highly correlated, isotropic normal fluid where atoms self-arrange based on their internal pseudospin into patterns that resemble bicontinuous microemulsions. This finding leaves several open questions regarding the broader accessibility of this phase in experiments. Here, we use equilibrium finite-temperature numerical simulations based on a coherent-state path integral representation to perform a computational investigation into the thermodynamic stability of the spin microemulsion state. Numerical simulations emphasize the requirement of a nearly, but not perfectly, isotropic spin-orbit coupling in order to achieve the microemulsion phase in cold-atom experiments. Moreover, the microemulsion state exists independent of miscibility of the pseudospin components and for a wide range of pseudospin population imbalance, suggesting a high degree of flexibility in choosing the atom and hyperfine states in an experimental realization. Lastly, we demonstrate this feasibility by mimicking a Rashba spin-orbit-coupled 87 Rb experiment in an isotropic harmonic trap, where we confirm the microemulsion's existence via its density profile and equilibrium quasimomentum distribution.

Complex Langevin dynamics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Evaluating Protection System Performance for a Real-World Weak Grid Area With High Inverter-Based Resources

This paper evaluates an existing protection scheme implemented in a real-world weak grid area with a high penetration of inverter-based resources (IBRs). The study aims to assess the reliability and adequacy of protection schemes originally designed for traditional synchronous machine systems and determine whether they can continue to operate reliably in systems with high levels of IBRs. Hardware relays are tested using a controller-hardware-in-the-loop setup. PSCAD electromagnetic transient simulation with an IBR original equipment manufacturer black-box model is used to perform fault studies and generate COMTRADE data, which are replayed by a realtime digital simulator (RTDS) to feed input to the hardware relays. Three scenarios are analyzed: normal operation, an N-1 contingency, and an IBR-only scenario. The evaluation results reveal the following: 1) the protection scheme remains reliable under normal conditions and N-1 contingencies and 2) in IBRonly scenarios, differential protection (87L) continues to operate reliably, whereas local protection elements, such as distance and directional elements, fail because of the lack of regulated negative sequence current contributed by IBRs. These findings provide utilities with valuable insights for improving their protection systems in high-IBRs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Integration of GOES Data for Solar Resource Assessment of the Contiguous United States

The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), produced by the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR), provides high-resolution solar resource data for the contiguous United States (CONUS) using Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) East and West observations. This study evaluates the integration of multi-satellite data within the GOES-East/West overlap regions, where conventional longitude-based selection methods often produce an artificial boundary seam. Our results demonstrate that an advanced blending algorithm, which incorporates sun-satellite scattering angles and satellite viewing zenith angles, improves NSRDB accuracy and creates a spatially continuous dataset. Validation against ground-based irradiance measurements reveals reductions in both percentage error (PE) and normalized Root Mean Square Error (nRMSE), particularly in the central United States. The dynamical integration of multi-satellite data provides a robust foundation for more precise modeling of solar resource and improved spatiotemporal analysis of solar ramp across the CONUS.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Integrating very-high-resolution imagery, Sentinel-2 time-series data, and machine learning to map shrub fractional abundance across arid and semi-arid ecosystems in China

Shrub fractional abundance (SFA), the proportion of shrub cover per unit area, serves as a critical indicator of environmental aridity and ecosystem health in arid and semi-arid regions, particularly across the Mongolian steppe. However, large-scale SFA mapping in Mongolian steppe ecosystems remains challenging due to the small crown size of shrubs, their sparse distribution, and spectral overlap with coexisting low vegetation (e.g., grasses and herbs), which hinders accurate detection using coarser-resolution satellite data or traditional field surveys. To address these challenges, we developed a two-step approach that integrates very-high-resolution (VHR) imagery, time-series Sentinel-2 data, and deep learning techniques. First, we generated high-accuracy benchmark maps of individual shrub crowns from 0.5 m VHR imagery by combining manual segmentation with a hybrid deep learning framework (Dino V2 and convolutional neural networks). Second, we used these shrub crown maps as training data to build an XGBoost model for predicting SFA from 20 m Sentinel-2 time-series data, leveraging phenological information to improve estimation. We validated our approach across 70 sites (1km 2 each) in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, which is representative of Mongolian steppe ecosystems. From VHR imagery, we mapped 1.31 million shrub crowns with an accuracy of R 2 = 0.92. Scaling up with Sentinel-2 data yielded regional SFA maps with an R 2 = 0.60. Further SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis on the developed XGBoost model revealed that phenological metrics (particularly observations in early-May, mid-July, and late-September), which distinguish shrub phenology from that of other land cover types (e.g., grasses and bare soil), were the most influential predictors of SFA. Finally, our regional SFA maps uncovered unimodal relationships between shrub distribution and climate variables, peaking at mean annual minimum temperatures near 0 °C and annual precipitation around 200 mm. Collectively, these findings demonstrate how the integration of multi-source remote sensing and machine learning can overcome historical limitations in SFA mapping, enabling accurate, spatially continuous assessments across vast Inner-Mongolian steppe ecosystems. Our framework has the potential to be applied to other steppe ecosystems and dryland ecosystems across the Mongolian steppe and beyond, offering a foundation for improved monitoring and ecological impact assessments in the face of global climate changes.

Arid and semi-arid landscapes↗

DOE OSTI2025

Calculating Methane Emissions from Offshore Facilities Using Bottom-Up Methods

With changing demands in regulation, understanding methane emissions from offshore oil and gas production infrastructure has become increasingly important. Reported emissions from facilities in the Gulf of Mexico range from zero to thousands of tons of methane per hour, but these is currently no clear understanding of how this range compares to expected emissions from normally operating facilities. To generate realistic emission estimates, we create two bottom-up models that simulate emissions from facilities operating in the Gulf of Mexico. We estimate type 1 prototypical facilities (typically unmanned, older, lower-producing platforms in shallow water with little processing equipment, compressors, or storage tanks) to emit an average of 13 kg CH 4 h −1 , which corresponds to a loss of 2.7% of the average facility production. Type 2 prototypical facilities (continuously manned, higher production and operate in deeper water with processing equipment, oil storage tanks, compressors and power generation) emit an average of 88 kg CH 4 h −1 , which corresponds to a loss of 2.5% of production. The average measured emission from type 1 facilities was 18 kg CH 4 h −1 with a median production loss estimated at 8%. The average measured emission from type 2 facilities was 36 kg CH 4 h −1 with a median production loss estimated at 2.4%. Using emission factors that consider the long-tail emission distribution partly reconciles the difference between modelled and measured emission estimates, but we suggest the current the fugitive emission estimate may be an underestimate and more data on the number and size of fugitive emissions could explain differences between the modelled and measured emission estimate. We suggest the bottom-up approach described here that uses production data coupled with facility equipment could be used to identify facilities that have abnormally large measured emissions, caused by methodological failure or larger than expected fugitive emissions, which should be targeted for further evaluation resulting in remeasurement or identification of source type so that a more accurate estimates can be made on the absolute emission.

bottom-up↗