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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2013

Large-Scale Features of Pliocene Climate: Results from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project

Climate and environments of the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.264 to 3.025 Ma) have been extensively studied.Whilst numerical models have shed light on the nature of climate at the time, uncertainties in their predictions have not been systematically examined. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project quantifies uncertainties in model outputs through a coordinated multi-model and multi-mode data intercomparison. Whilst commonalities in model outputs for the Pliocene are clearly evident, we show substantial variation in the sensitivity of models to the implementation of Pliocene boundary conditions. Models appear able to reproduce many regional changes in temperature reconstructed from geological proxies. However, data model comparison highlights that models potentially underestimate polar amplification. To assert this conclusion with greater confidence, limitations in the time-averaged proxy data currently available must be addressed. Furthermore, sensitivity tests exploring the known unknowns in modelling Pliocene climate specifically relevant to the high latitudes are essential (e.g. palaeogeography, gateways, orbital forcing and trace gasses). Estimates of longer-term sensitivity to CO2 (also known as Earth System Sensitivity; ESS), support previous work suggesting that ESS is greater than Climate Sensitivity (CS), and suggest that the ratio of ESS to CS is between 1 and 2, with a "best" estimate of 1.5.

mathematical models↗
DOE OSTI2020

AEROICESTUDY-Colorado State University Ice Spectrometer

The dataset comprises measures, using Colorado State University's Ice Spectrometer (IS, an immersion freezing device with a range from 0 °C down to -26 to -29 °C) of atmospheric ice nucleating particle (INP) concentrations taken at ARM's Southern Great Plains (SGP) Site Guest Instrument Facility (GIF), in Lamont, Oklahoma, during the Aerosol-Ice Formation Closure Pilot Study (AEROICESTUDY). A filter sampler was mounted approximately 6 m above ground level atop the GIF rooftop platform. Single-use filter units open to the atmosphere fitted with pre-cleaned and pre-sterilized, 47-mm diameter Nuclepore polycarbonate filters were used. Filters were typically drawn for either a full day period (9AM-5PM CDT) or broken up into morning (9AM-12PM CDT) and afternoon (1PM-5PM CDT) periods. Additionally, 4 overnight filters were taken (6PM-8AM CDT). The volume of air filtered was typically between 3000 and 8000 standard liters for daily samples. After collection, filters were stored at -20 °C until processed. Initial processing to obtain spectra of INP number concentration active via the immersion freezing mechanism versus temperature was conducted using CSU's IS instrument (McCluskey et al., 2018). For measurement of INPs, collected aerosol particles were re-suspended in 8 mL of 0.1 µm-filtered deionized (DI) water. Aliquots of each suspension, and serial dilutions, were dispensed into trays which were fit into aluminum blocks in the IS. Samples were cooled at 0.33 °C per min and the freezing temperatures of wells recorded automatically. Cumulative INP concentrations were determined by first calculating the INPs per mL of suspension based on Vali (1971) and then converting to concentration per standard liter of air using the proportion of the total liquid sample dispensed and the air sample volumes. Two-tailed, 95% confidence intervals for binomial sampling were based on Equation 2 from Agresti and Coull (1998). Aliquots of suspensions from selected samples were also heat treated (95 °C for 20 min) to denature and deactiv

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Relationship of Hydrology in the Green River to Colorado Pikeminnow Populations

The Federally listed Colorado Pikeminnow (CP) (Ptychocheilus Lucius) has been declining in the Green River Basin over the last 20 years. Muth et al. (2000) recommended flows and temperatures to benefit endangered fish species downstream of Flaming Gorge Dam on the Green River. The recommendations identified a range of flows during the base flow period (flows that occur after the annual snowmelt runoff period, usually from early summer to the following spring) that were intended to benefit CP. The recommendations indicated that the mean flow for the summer–winter period should be established each year on the basis of anticipated hydrologic conditions, but adjustments could be made if hydrologic conditions change. Flow should gradually decline from peak flow to base flow, with the base flow reached by early to middle summer (depending on hydrologic conditions) and maintained through February. The rate of decline should depend on rates of decline in Yampa River flows and the recommended rates of decline for dam releases. No specific recommendations were made for base flow variation in Reach 1, but variation around the annual mean base flow should be restricted to achieve recommended levels of variation in Reach 2 (middle Green River) (Table 5.5 in Muth et al. 2000). Implementation of the flow and temperature recommendations served as the proposed action for an EIS on Flaming Gorge Dam operations. A Biological Assessment of the impacts on endangered species of implementing the recommendations was prepared and a Biological Opinion that called for development of a study plan to examine the effects of implementation. Projects to address this evaluation were identified in the Green River Study Plan and have been conducted since then. The purpose of the Study Plan was to identify and recommend to the Recovery Program those monitoring or research projects necessary for implementation and evaluation of the flow and temperature recommendations. Those projects included studies to evaluate the anticipated effects of implementing the recommendations (including potential adverse effects identified in the 2006 Biological Opinion) and studies to examine recognized uncertainties of the recommendations. A new recovery program summer base flow study plan was approved in September of 2020 to evaluate stable and elevated summer base flows below Flaming Gorge Dam intended to benefit CP spawning and rearing success. Anecdotal observations suggest CP production may have been higher in years prior to flow restrictions for endangered fish. Based on long-term CP monitoring data in the Green River, Bestgen and Hill (2016) concluded that CP would benefit from higher summer baseflows (1,700-3,000 ft 3 /sec) with flows above or below associated with lower abundance of age-0 CP. Therefore, flexibility in the ROD is currently being utilized to establish higher stable summer base flows in an attempt create more advantageous conditions for spawning and rearing CP. These fish recovery flows are restrictive to WAPA in the summer months, therefore it is necessary to conduct an analysis of historic river data relationships to CP abundance to better understand if the recommended fish flows (elevated and stable base flows) are necessary for fish recovery.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2011

Evaluation of Cloud-Resolving Model Intercomparison Simulations Using TWP-ICE Observations: Precipitation and Cloud Structure

The Tropical Warm Pool.International Cloud Experiment (TWP ]ICE) provided extensive observational data sets designed to initialize, force, and constrain atmospheric model simulations. In this first of a two ]part study, precipitation and cloud structures within nine cloud ]resolving model simulations are compared with scanning radar reflectivity and satellite infrared brightness temperature observations during an active monsoon period from 19 to 25 January 2006. Seven of nine simulations overestimate convective area by 20% or more leading to general overestimation of convective rainfall. This is balanced by underestimation of stratiform rainfall by 5% to 50% despite overestimation of stratiform area by up to 65% because of a preponderance of very low stratiform rain rates in all simulations. All simulations fail to reproduce observed radar reflectivity distributions above the melting level in convective regions and throughout the troposphere in stratiform regions. Observed precipitation ]sized ice reaches higher altitudes than simulated precipitation ]sized ice despite some simulations that predict lower than observed top ]of ]atmosphere infrared brightness temperatures. For the simulations that overestimate radar reflectivity aloft, graupel is the cause with one ]moment microphysics schemes whereas snow is the cause with two ]moment microphysics schemes. Differences in simulated radar reflectivity are more highly correlated with differences in mass mean melted diameter (Dm) than differences in ice water content. Dm is largely dependent on the mass ]dimension relationship and gamma size distribution parameters such as size intercept (N0) and shape parameter (m). Having variable density, variable N0, or m greater than zero produces radar reflectivities closest to those observed.

Varble, Adam↗
DOE OSTI2024

A deep learning-based battery sizing optimization tool for hybridizing generation plants

Hybrid generation and energy storage systems offer the ability to increase flexibility of the combined asset. This flexibility can be used to increase provision of services already provided by the generation asset, such as timing sale of electricity to the energy market during high price periods, and also enable provision of additional services, such as ancillary services or contribute to resource adequacy. From a generation asset owner perspective, the decision to hybridize includes selecting an energy storage system that, among other factors, maximizes financial performance of the energy storage investment. Yet, existing tools to optimize energy storage sizing are either too rudimentary (i.e., based on “rules of thumb”) or too complex to implement (i.e., require specialized engineering and software knowledge and a high-performance computer to run). This work presents a novel deep learning-based battery sizing optimization tool that is designed to help generation asset owners easily assess preliminary sizing considerations for potential battery investments to hybridize their generation facility. The tool uses deep learning to predict revenue over a broad search space of potential battery sizes, estimates capital and operating costs (including accounting for battery degradation), and computes financial performance of each potential battery system investment, recommending a system with maximum financial performance. The tool is tested and validated for hydropower assets. Finally, this tool will help a greater cross-section of industry consider investments in battery systems, increasing their revenue and helping them compete in rapidly evolving electrify markets.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

SECARB Semi-Annual Field Review Reports - Early Test

The Southern States Energy Board (SSEB) managed the overall Southeast Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (SECARB) Phase III project and The Bureau of Economic Geology (BEG), at the University of Texas at Austin, managed all activities associated with the Early Test field site near Cranfield, Mississippi (the Early Test or Cranfield Project). BEG was assisted in the management of site activities by Sandia Technologies (Sandia). BEG and Sandia implemented reporting procedures that included monthly and quarterly technical progress reports, as well as periodic reporting on key field activities. Subsequent sections of this report catalog the field activities and are organized in a semiannual chronology. The Cranfield Project was located approximately 12 miles east of Natchez, Mississippi. Denbury Onshore, LLC, began operating a commercial CO 2 flood of the field (using the subsurface injection of CO 2 for EOR) in June 2008. Carbon dioxide from the Jackson Dome, a natural source near Jackson, Mississippi, was delivered to the Cranfield oilfield via pipeline. Beginning in October 2008, the SECARB Early Test team characterized the surface and subsurface of the Cranfield site. During the field test CO 2 was injected into the lower Tuscaloosa Formation, a regionally extensive saline formation with the potential to hold millions of tons of CO 2 emissions. By January 2015, the team injected more than 11 million metric tons of CO 2 and monitored a total stored CO 2 mass of 5,326,975 metric tons. SECARB’s study operations occurred in four integrated research program areas within Cranfield field: (1) the High Volume Injection Test area (HiVIT); (2) the Detailed Area of Study (DAS); (3) the Geomechanical area; and (4) the near-surface observatory, also called the “P-site.” Carbon dioxide injection activities were conducted at the HiVIT and the DAS. Figure 1.1-1 provides a depiction of the DAS.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
NASA NTRS2014

Evaluating the Dominant Components of Warming in Pliocene Climate Simulations

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) is the first coordinated climate model comparison for a warmer palaeoclimate with atmospheric CO2 significantly higher than pre-industrial concentrations. The simulations of the mid-Pliocene warm period show global warming of between 1.8 and 3.6 C above pre-industrial surface air temperatures, with significant polar amplification. Here we perform energy balance calculations on all eight of the coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations within PlioMIP Experiment 2 to evaluate the causes of the increased temperatures and differences between the models. In the tropics simulated warming is dominated by greenhouse gas increases, with the cloud component of planetary albedo enhancing the warming in most of the models, but by widely varying amounts. The responses to mid-Pliocene climate forcing in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes are substantially different between the climate models, with the only consistent response being a warming due to increased greenhouse gases. In the high latitudes all the energy balance components become important, but the dominant warming influence comes from the clear sky albedo, only partially offset by the increases in the cooling impact of cloud albedo. This demonstrates the importance of specified ice sheet and high latitude vegetation boundary conditions and simulated sea ice and snow albedo feedbacks. The largest components in the overall uncertainty are associated with clouds in the tropics and polar clear sky albedo, particularly in sea ice regions. These simulations show that albedo feedbacks, particularly those of sea ice and ice sheets, provide the most significant enhancements to high latitude warming in the Pliocene.

climate models↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spatially Patterned Architectures to Modulate CO 2 Reduction Cascade Catalysis Kinetics

Electrochemical CO 2 reduction using renewable sources of electrical energy holds promise for converting CO 2 into fuels and chemicals. The complex interactions among chemical/electrochemical reactions and mass transport make it difficult to analyze the effect of an individual process on electrode performance based only on experimental methods. Here, we developed a generalized steady-state simulation to describe an electrode surface in which sequential cascade catalysts are patterned in a periodic trench design. If appropriately constructed, this trench geometry is hypothesized to be able to yield a higher net current density for a CO 2 reduction (CO 2 R) cascade reaction. We have used realistic experimental reaction kinetics to investigate the role of trench geometry in mass transport, local microenvironments, and selectivity for a model CO 2 R cascade reaction. The model considers local concentration gradients of bicarbonate species at quasi-equilibrium and catalytic surface reactions based on concentration-dependent Butler–Volmer kinetics. Our results suggest that varying the spatial distribution of active sites plays a significant role in facilitating effective mass transport between active sites, modulating selectivity for the cascade reaction, and enhancing the yield of desirable cascade products. Moreover, we observe that this trench geometry significantly alters the cascade reaction rate by affecting the local pH, which can cause inadvertent depletion of available aqueous CO 2 to limit the CO 2 R cascade kinetics and modest suppression of the hydrogen evolution reaction (HER). The results highlight the trade-offs between mass transport, pH, and reaction kinetics that become apparent only when considering the coupled physics of all processes at the electrode surface. Here, this model can thus serve as a primary tool to build more selective and efficient patterned architectures for the CO 2 R cascade catalysis.

CO2 reduction↗
DOE OSTI2020

SECARB 2020 Semi-Annual Field Review Reports - Anthropogenic Test

The Southern States Energy Board (SSEB) managed the overall Southeast Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnership (SECARB) Phase III project and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) managed all activities associated with the Anthropogenic Test site. Advanced Resources International, Inc. (ARI) assisted EPRI with the management of site activities. EPRI and ARI followed reporting procedures that included monthly and quarterly technical progress reports, as well as periodic reporting on key field activities. Subsequent sections of this report catalog the field activities and are organized in a semi-annual chronology. The SECARB Anthropogenic Test was the largest demonstration of a fully integrated, pulverized coal-fueled carbon capture and storage (CCS) project in the United States as of 2012 and supports a commercial prototype of CO 2 capture; transportation; subsurface storage; and monitoring, verification, and accounting (MVA); and assessment. The demonstration-scale, post-combustion CO 2 capture facility at Alabama Power Company’s Plant Barry diverted flue gas (25MW equivalent) from its Unit #5 coal burning facility and captured the CO 2 using Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) KM-CDRTM advanced amine technology. The captured CO2 was compressed at Plant Barry and transported by pipeline to the injection location southeast of Citronelle, Alabama. The Citronelle Project’s geologic storage and MVA sites were located on the flanks of the Citronelle Dome, approximately three miles southeast of the city of Citronelle. The injection zone, the Paluxy Formation, a saline formation that occurs at approximately 9,400 feet and overlies the oil production horizon of the Citronelle oilfield, presents a favorable injection reservoir in terms of areal extent and petrophysical characteristics. The confining zone, the basal shale of the overlying Washita-Fredericksburg Formation, is persistent throughout the Citronelle area and possesses the appropriate criteria to act as an effective CO 2 seal.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
NASA NTRS2006

Heliosheath Space Environment Interactions with Icy Bodies in the Outermost Solar System

The Voyager 1 and 2 spacecraft are exploring the space environment of the outermost solar system at the same time that earth-based astronomy continues to discover new icy bodies, one larger than Pluto, in the transitional region outward from the Classical Kuiper Belt to the Inner Oort Cloud. Some of the Scattered Disk Objects in this region periodically pass through the heliosheath, entered by Voyager 1 in Dec. 2004 and later expected to be reached by Voyager 2, and out even beyond the heliopause into the Very Local Interstellar Medium. The less energetic heliosheath ions, important for implantation and sputtering processes, are abundant near and beyond the termination shock inner boundary, but the source region of the more penetrating anomalous cosmic ray component has not yet been found. Advantageous for modeling of icy body interactions, the measured heliosheath flux spectra are relatively more stable within this new regime of isotropic compressional magnetic turbulence than in the upstream heliospheric environment. The deepest interactions and resultant radiation-induced chemistry arise from the inwardly diffusing component of the galactic cosmic ray ions with significant intensity modulation also arising in the heliosheath beyond Voyager 1. Surface gardening by high-velocity impacts of smaller bodies (e.g., fragments of previous KBO collisions) and dust is a further space weathering process setting the time scales for long term exposure of different regolith layers to the ion irradiation. Sputtering and ionization of impact ejecta grains may provide a substantial feedback of pickup ions for multiple cycles of heliosheath acceleration and icy body interaction. Thus the space weathering interactions are potentially of interest not only for effects on sensible surface composition of the icy bodies but also for evolution of the heliosheath plasma energetic ion, and neutral emission environment.

Cooper, John F.↗
NASA NTRS2021

TESS-Keck Survey. V. Twin Sub-Neptunes Transiting the Nearby G Star HD 63935

We present the discovery of two nearly identically sized sub-Neptune transiting planets orbiting HD 63935, abright(V=8.6 mag), Sun-like(Teff=5560 K)star at 49 pc. TESS identified thefirst planet, HD 63935 b(TOI-509.01), in Sectors 7 and 34. We identified the second signal(HD 63935 c)in Keck High Resolution EchelleSpectrometer and Lick Automated Planet Finder radial velocity data as part of our follow-up campaign. It wassubsequently confirmed with TESS photometry in Sector 34 as TOI-509.02. Our analysis of the photometric andradial velocity data yielded a robust detection of both planets with periods of 9.0600±0.007 and 21.40±0.0019days, radii of 2.99±0.14 and 2.90±0.13R⊕, and masses of 10.8±1.8 and 11.1±2.4M⊕. We calculated densities for planets b and c consistent with a few percent of the planet mass in hydrogen/helium envelopes. Wealso describe our survey’s efforts to choose the best targets for James Webb Space Telescope atmospheric follow-up. These efforts suggest that HD 63935 b has the most clearly visible atmosphere of its class. It is the best targetfor transmission spectroscopy(ranked by the transmission spectroscopy metric, a proxy for atmosphericobservability)in the so far uncharacterized parameter space comprising sub-Neptune-sized(2.6R⊕<Rp<4R⊕),moderately irradiated(100F⊕<Fp<1000F⊕)planets around G stars. Planet c is also a viable target fortransmission spectroscopy, and given the indistinguishable masses and radii of the two planets, the system servesas a natural laboratory for examining the processes that shape the evolution of sub-Neptune planets.

Nicholas Scarsdale↗
DOE OSTI2022

Integrating data types to estimate spatial patterns of avian migration across the Western Hemisphere

For many avian species, spatial migration patterns remain largely undescribed, especially across hemispheric extents. Recent advancements in tracking technologies and high-resolution species distribution models (i.e., eBird Status and Trends products) provide new insights into migratory bird movements and offer a promising opportunity for integrating independent data sources to describe avian migration. Here, we present a three-stage modeling framework for estimating spatial patterns of avian migration. First, we integrate tracking and band re-encounter data to quantify migratory connectivity, defined as the relative proportions of individuals migrating between breeding and nonbreeding regions. Next, we use estimated connectivity proportions along with eBird occurrence probabilities to produce probabilistic least-cost path (LCP) indices. In a final step, we use generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) both to evaluate the ability of LCP indices to accurately predict (i.e., as a covariate) observed locations derived from tracking and band re-encounter data sets versus pseudo-absence locations during migratory periods and to create a fully integrated (i.e., eBird occurrence, LCP, and tracking/band re-encounter data) spatial prediction index for mapping species-specific seasonal migrations. To illustrate this approach, we apply this framework to describe seasonal migrations of 12 bird species across the Western Hemisphere during pre- and postbreeding migratory periods (i.e., spring and fall, respectively). We found that including LCP indices with eBird occurrence in GAMMs generally improved the ability to accurately predict observed migratory locations compared to models with eBird occurrence alone. Using three performance metrics, the eBird + LCP model demonstrated equivalent or superior fit relative to the eBird-only model for 22 of 24 species–season GAMMs. In particular, the integrated index filled in spatial gaps for species with over-water movements and those that migrated over land where there were few eBird sightings and, thus, low predictive ability of eBird occurrence probabilities (e.g., Amazonian rainforest in South America). This methodology of combining individual-based seasonal movement data with temporally dynamic species distribution models provides a comprehensive approach to integrating multiple data types to describe broad-scale spatial patterns of animal movement. Further development and customization of this approach will continue to advance knowledge about the full annual cycle and conservation of migratory birds.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2012

Long-Term Monitoring of the High-Energy Gamma-Ray Emission from LS I +61 deg 303 and LS 5039

The Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) reported the first definitive gigaelectron volts detections of the binaries LS I +61 deg 303 and LS 5039 in the first year after its launch in 2008 June. These detections were unambiguous as a consequence of the reduced positional uncertainty and the detection of modulated gamma-ray emission on the corresponding orbital periods. An analysis of new data from the LAT, comprising 30 months of observations, identifies a change in the gamma-ray behavior of LS I +61 deg 303. An increase in flux is detected in 2009 March and a steady decline in the orbital flux modulation is observed. Significant emission up to 30 gigaelectron volts is detected by the LAT; prior data sets led to upper limits only. Contemporaneous terraelectron volt observations no longer detected the source, or found it-in one orbit-close to periastron, far from the phases at which the source previously appeared at terraelectron volt energies. The detailed numerical simulations and models that exist within the literature do not predict or explain many of these features now observed at gigaelectron volt and terraelectron volt energies. New ideas and models are needed to fully explain and understand this behavior. A detailed phase-resolved analysis of the spectral characterization of LS I +61 deg 303 in the gigaelectron volt regime ascribes a power law with an exponential cutoff spectrum along each analyzed portion of the system's orbit. The on-source exposure of LS 5039 is also substantially increased with respect to our prior publication. In this case, whereas the general gamma-ray properties remain consistent, the increased statistics of the current data set allows for a deeper investigation of its orbital and spectral evolution.

High-energy↗
NASA NTRS2015

Using Results from the PlioMIP Ensemble to Investigate the Greenland Ice Sheet During the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period

During an interval of the Late Pliocene, referred to here as the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP; 3.264 to 3.025 million years ago), global mean temperature was similar to that predicted for the end of this century, and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations were higher than preindustrial levels. Sea level was also higher than today, implying a significant reduction in the extent of the ice sheets. Thus, the mPWP provides a natural laboratory in which to investigate the long-term response of the Earth's ice sheets and sea level in a warmer-than-present-day world. At present, our understanding of the Greenland ice sheet during the mPWP is generally based upon predictions using single climate and ice sheet models. Therefore, it is essential that the model dependency of these results is assessed. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) has brought together nine international modeling groups to simulate the warm climate of the Pliocene. Here we use the climatological fields derived from the results of the 15 PlioMIP climate models to force an offline ice sheet model. We show that mPWP ice sheet reconstructions are highly dependent upon the forcing climatology used, with Greenland reconstructions ranging from an ice-free state to a near modern ice sheet. An analysis of the surface albedo variability between the climate models over Greenland offers insights into the drivers of inter-model differences. As we demonstrate that the climate model dependency of our results is high, we highlight the necessity of data-based constraints of ice extent in developing our understanding of the mPWP Greenland ice sheet.

sea level↗
NASA NTRS1958

Lightning Hazards to Aircraft Fuel Tanks

The hazards of lightning strokes to aircraft fuel tanks have been investigated in artificial-lightning-generation facilities specifically constructed to duplicate closely the natural lightning discharges to air­ craft determined through flight research programs and analysis of lightning-damaged aircraft over a period of many years. Explosion studies were made in an environmental explosion chamber using small fuel tanks under various simulated flight conditions. The results showed that there is a primary hazard whenever there is direct puncture of the fuel-tank wall, whereas the ignition of fuel by hot spots on tank walls due to lightning strikes is unlikely. Punctures of fuel-tank walls by artificial-lightning discharges produced explosions of the fuel in the mixture range from excessively lean to rich mixtures. None of the aluminum alloys, 0.081 inch thick or over, were punctured by the laboratory discharges representative of natural-lightning discharges to aircraft; however, reliance on this wall thickness for complete pro­tection would not be justified, because occasional strokes are known to be of greater magnitude and because statistics reveal variations in the damage pattern. Data gathered by the Lightning and Transients Research Institute on lightning strokes to aircraft show that 90 percent of the strokes recorded have occurred in the temperature range of -10° to +10° C, where many of the jet fuels are flammable but where aviation gasoline is overrich. Also, 10 percent of the strokes recorded have been to the wings, which are the principal fuel-storage areas for modern aircraft. Thus, there is a hazard, particularly for jet fuels. Certain protective measures are indicated by the studies to date, such as the use of lightning diverter rods, thickening of the wing skin in areas near the most probable stroke paths, and the use of fuel-tank liners in critical areas.

Robb, J. D.↗
NASA NTRS2020

SAGE III ISS Contamination Monitoring Package: Observations in Orbit

The Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (SAGE III) telescope and instrument assembly employ the methods of solar occultation and lunar occultation to retrieve near-global vertical profiles of atmospheric ozone, water vapor, nitrogen dioxide, aerosol extinctions, and other gaseous species and atmospheric state parameters. The SAGE III grating spectrometer measures light within the spectral range of 280 nm to 1037 nm at approximately 1 nm resolution, but retrievals in the Ultraviolet (UV) are particularly sensitive to contamination of the optical train. Therefore, a contamination door that contains a quartz optical window can be closed over the telescope aperture during periods of enhanced external contaminant flux. This optically transparent window permits continued science event acquisition at an acceptably diminished signal-to-noise ratio, which is expected to decline with ongoing accretion of contaminant material. To date, this impact has been short term, and science quality through the window returns to baseline performance after a contamination source is removed and spontaneous desorption removes material from the low-affinity quartz surface. Two Contamination Monitoring Packages (CMPs) consisting of eight Thermoelectric Quartz Crystal Microbalances (TQCMs) from QCM Research provide characterization and redundant monitoring of contaminant deposition from the 2π steradian solid angle on the payload side of the Expedite the Processing of Experiments to the Space Station (ExPRESS) Payload Adapter. CMP data are closely examined by the SAGE III team to determine when the contamination door should remain closed during science events and in what direction the instrument assembly scan head should stow when not acquiring science measurements. Additionally, should the CMPs indicate an unacceptable accretion rate, the ight computer will close the contamination door as part of the automatic fault detection system. Along with spectrometer measurements of the quartz window's transmission, the payload CMPs enable auditing of the mission contamination budget. The process of Thermogravimetric Analysis (TGA) can be used to help identify chemical constituents accreted on the CMP sensors. To be presented here along with an explanation of the CMP systems are the first two and a half years of observations of the contaminant deposition environment around the payload in quiescence and during special events like docking vehicles.

Tyler T Dawson↗
NASA NTRS2020

SAGE III/ISS Contamination Monitoring Package: Observations in Orbit

The Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (SAGE III) telescope and instrument assembly employ the methods of solar occultation and lunar occultation to retrieve near-global vertical profiles of atmospheric ozone, water vapor, nitrogen dioxide, aerosol extinctions, and other gaseous species and atmospheric state parameters. The SAGE III grating spectrometer measures light within the spectral range of 280 nm to 1037 nm at approximately 1 nm resolution, but retrievals in the Ultraviolet (UV) are particularly sensitive to contamination of the optical train. Therefore, a contamination door that contains a quartz optical window can be closed over the telescope aperture during periods of enhanced external contaminant flux. This optically transparent window permits continued science event acquisition at an acceptably diminished signal-to-noise ratio, which is expected to decline with ongoing accretion of contaminant material. To date, this impact has been short term, and science quality through the window returns to baseline performance after a contamination source is removed and spontaneous desorption removes material from the low-affinity quartz surface. Two Contamination Monitoring Packages (CMPs) consisting of eight Thermoelectric Quartz Crystal Microbalances (TQCMs) from QCM Research provide characterization and redundant monitoring of contaminant deposition from the 2pi steradian solid angle on the payload side of the Expedite the Processing of Experiments to the Space Station (ExPRESS) Payload Adapter. CMP data are closely examined by the SAGE III team to determine when the contamination door should remain closed during science events and in what direction the instrument assembly scan head should stow when not acquiring science measurements. Additionally, should the CMPs indicate an unacceptable accretion rate, the flight computer will close the contamination door as part of the automatic fault detection system. Along with spectrometer measurements of the quartz window's transmission, the payload CMPs enable auditing of the mission contamination budget. The process of Thermogravimetric Analysis (TGA) can be used to help identify chemical constituents accreted on the CMP sensors. To be presented here along with an explanation of the CMP systems are the first two and a half years of observations of the contaminant deposition environment around the payload in quiescence and during special events like docking vehicles.

Tyler T Dawson↗
DOE OSTI2024

Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020–2021

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub ( https://covid19forecasthub.org ). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1–4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗