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At least 235 records · Page 13

Conditional Pseudo-Reversible Normalizing Flow for Surrogate Modeling in Quantifying Uncertainty Propagation

We introduce a conditional pseudo-reversible normalizing flow (PR-NF) that directly learns conditional probability distributions from noisy physical models to efficiently quantify both forward and inverse uncertainty propagation. Traditional surrogate modeling approaches approximate only the deterministic component of physical models, requiring separate noise characterization and computationally expensive sampling methods for inverse problems. Here, in this work, we develop the conditional PR-NF model to directly learn and efficiently generate samples from the conditional probability density functions (PDFs). The training process utilizes dataset consisting of input-output pairs without requiring prior knowledge about the noise and the function. Once trained, our model efficiently generates samples from conditional PDFs for any input within the training domain. Moreover, the pseudo-reversibility feature allows for the use of fully connected neural network architectures, which simplifies the implementation and enables theoretical analysis. We provide a rigorous convergence analysis of the conditional PR-NF model, showing its ability to converge to the target conditional PDF using the Kullback−Leibler divergence. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, we apply it to several benchmark tests and a real-world geologic carbon storage problem.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Mesoscale Simulations of a Florida Sea Breeze Using the PLACE Land Surface Model Coupled to a 1.5-Order Turbulence Parameterization

A sophisticated land-surface model, PLACE, the Parameterization for Land Atmospheric Convective Exchange, has been coupled to a 1.5-order turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) turbulence sub-model. Both have been incorporated into the Penn State/National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) mesoscale model MM5. Such model improvements should have their greatest effect in conditions where surface contrasts dominate over dynamic processes, such as the simulation of warm-season, convective events. A validation study used the newly coupled model, MM5 TKE-PLACE, to simulate the evolution of Florida sea-breeze moist convection during the Convection and Precipitation Electrification Experiment (CaPE). Overall, eight simulations tested the sensitivity of the MM5 model to combinations of the new and default model physics, and initialization of soil moisture and temperature. The TKE-PLACE model produced more realistic surface sensible heat flux, lower biases for surface variables, more realistic rainfall, and cloud cover than the default model. Of the 8 simulations with different factors (i.e., model physics or initialization), TKE-PLACE compared very well when each simulation was ranked in terms of biases of the surface variables and rainfall, and percent and root mean square of cloud cover. A factor separation analysis showed that a successful simulation required the inclusion of a multi-layered, land surface soil vegetation model, realistic initial soil moisture, and higher order closure of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). These were needed to realistically model the effect of individual, joint, and synergistic contributions from the land surface and PBL on the CAPE sea-breeze, Lake Okeechobee lake breeze, and moist convection.

Lynn, Barry H.

Holodeck Testbed Project

The main objective of the Holodeck Testbed is to create a cost effective, realistic, and highly immersive environment that can be used to train astronauts, carry out engineering analysis, develop procedures, and support various operations tasks. Currently, the Holodeck testbed allows to step into a simulated ISS (International Space Station) and interact with objects; as well as, perform Extra Vehicular Activities (EVA) on the surface of the Moon or Mars. The Holodeck Testbed is using the products being developed in the Hybrid Reality Lab (HRL). The HRL is combining technologies related to merging physical models with photo-realistic visuals to create a realistic and highly immersive environment. The lab also investigates technologies and concepts that are needed to allow it to be integrated with other testbeds; such as, the gravity offload capability provided by the Active Response Gravity Offload System (ARGOS). My main two duties were to develop and animate models for use in the HRL environments and work on a new way to interface with computers using Brain Computer Interface (BCI) technology. On my first task, I was able to create precise computer virtual tool models (accurate down to the thousandths or hundredths of an inch). To make these tools even more realistic, I produced animations for these tools so they would have the same mechanical features as the tools in real life. The computer models were also used to create 3D printed replicas that will be outfitted with tracking sensors. The sensor will allow the 3D printed models to align precisely with the computer models in the physical world and provide people with haptic/tactile feedback while wearing a VR (Virtual Reality) headset and interacting with the tools. Getting close to the end of my internship the lab bought a professional grade 3D Scanner. With this, I was able to replicate more intricate tools at a much more time-effective rate. The second task was to investigate the use of BCI to control objects inside the hybrid reality ISS environment. This task looked at using an Electroencephalogram (EEG) headset to collect brain state data that could be mapped to commands that a computer could execute. On this Task, I had a setback with the hardware, which stopped working and was returned to the vendor for repair. However, I was still able to collect some data, was able to process it, and started to create correlation algorithms between the electrical patterns in the brain and the commands we wanted the computer to carry out. I also carried out a test to investigate the comfort of the headset if it is worn for a long time. The knowledge gained will benefit me in my future career. I learned how to use various modeling and programming tools that included Blender, Maya, Substance Painter, Artec Studio, Github, and Unreal Engine 4. I learned how to use a professional grade 3D scanner and 3D printer. On the BCI Project I learned about data mining and how to create correlation algorithms. I also supported various demos including a live demo of the hybrid reality lab capabilities at ComicPalooza. This internship has given me a good look into engineering at NASA. I developed a more thorough understanding of engineering and my overall confidence has grown. I have also realized that any problem can be fixed, if you try hard enough, and as an engineer it is your job to not only fix problems but to embrace coming up with solutions to those problems.

Arias, Adriel

Simulation of Ultra-Small MOSFETs Using a 2-D Quantum-Corrected Drift-Diffusion Model

The continued down-scaling of electronic devices, in particular the commercially dominant MOSFET, will force a fundamental change in the process of new electronics technology development in the next five to ten years. The cost of developing new technology generations is soaring along with the price of new fabrication facilities, even as competitive pressure intensifies to bring this new technology to market faster than ever before. To reduce cost and time to market, device simulation must become a more fundamental, indeed dominant, part of the technology development cycle. In order to produce these benefits, simulation accuracy must improve markedly. At the same time, device physics will become more complex, with the rapid increase in various small-geometry and quantum effects. This work describes both an approach to device simulator development and a physical model which advance the effort to meet the tremendous electronic device simulation challenge described above. The device simulation approach is to specify the physical model at a high level to a general-purpose (but highly efficient) partial differential equation solver (in this case PROPHET, developed by Lucent Technologies), which then simulates the model in 1-D, 2-D, or 3-D for a specified device and test regime. This approach allows for the rapid investigation of a wide range of device models and effects, which is certainly essential for device simulation to catch up with, and then stay ahead of, electronic device technology of the present and future. The physical device model used in this work is the density-gradient (DG) quantum correction to the drift-diffusion model [Ancona, Phys. Rev. B 35(5), 7959 (1987)]. This model adds tunneling and quantum smoothing of carrier density profiles to the drift-diffusion model. We used the DG model in 1-D and 2-D (for the first time) to simulate both bipolar and unipolar devices. Simulations of heavily-doped, short-base diodes indicated that the DG quantum corrections do not have a large effect on the IN characteristics of electronic devices without heteroj unction s. On the other hand, ultra-small MOSFETs certainly exhibit important quantum effects that the DG model will include: quantum repulsion of the inversion and gate charges from the oxide interfaces, and quantum tunneling through thin gate oxides. We present initial results of 2-D DG simulations of ultra-small MOSFETs. Subtle but important issues involving the specification of the model, boundary conditions, and interface constraints for DG simulation of MOSFETs will also be illuminated.

Biegal, Bryan A.

Satellite freeze forecast system: Executive summary

A satellite-based temperature monitoring and prediction system consisting of a computer controlled acquisition, processing, and display system and the ten automated weather stations called by that computer was developed and transferred to the national weather service. This satellite freeze forecasting system (SFFS) acquires satellite data from either one of two sources, surface data from 10 sites, displays the observed data in the form of color-coded thermal maps and in tables of automated weather station temperatures, computes predicted thermal maps when requested and displays such maps either automatically or manually, archives the data acquired, and makes comparisons with historical data. Except for the last function, SFFS handles these tasks in a highly automated fashion if the user so directs. The predicted thermal maps are the result of two models, one a physical energy budget of the soil and atmosphere interface and the other a statistical relationship between the sites at which the physical model predicts temperatures and each of the pixels of the satellite thermal map.

Martsolf, J. D.

Opportunities for Breakthroughs in Large-Scale Computational Simulation and Design

Opportunities for breakthroughs in the large-scale computational simulation and design of aerospace vehicles are presented. Computational fluid dynamics tools to be used within multidisciplinary analysis and design methods are emphasized. The opportunities stem from speedups and robustness improvements in the underlying unit operations associated with simulation (geometry modeling, grid generation, physical modeling, analysis, etc.). Further, an improved programming environment can synergistically integrate these unit operations to leverage the gains. The speedups result from reducing the problem setup time through geometry modeling and grid generation operations, and reducing the solution time through the operation counts associated with solving the discretized equations to a sufficient accuracy. The opportunities are addressed only at a general level here, but an extensive list of references containing further details is included. The opportunities discussed are being addressed through the Fast Adaptive Aerospace Tools (FAAST) element of the Advanced Systems Concept to Test (ASCoT) and the third Generation Reusable Launch Vehicles (RLV) projects at NASA Langley Research Center. The overall goal is to enable greater inroads into the design process with large-scale simulations.

Alexandrov, Natalia

Calibration, Data Acquisition, and Post Analysis of Turbulent Fluid Flow in a Calibration Jet Using Hot-wire Anemometry

The Turbine Branch concentrates on the following areas: Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), and implementing experimental procedures to obtain physical modeling data. Hot-wire Anemometry is a valuable tool for obtaining physical modeling data. Hot-wire Anemometry is likely to remain the principal research tool for most turbulent air/gas flow studies. The Hot-wire anemometer consists of a fine wire heated by electric current. When placed in a fluid stream, the hot-wire loses heat to the fluid by forced convection. In forced convection, energy transfer is due to molecular motion imposed by an extraneous force moving fluid parcels. When the hot-wire is in "equilibrium", the rate of heat input to the wire is equal to the rate of heat loss at the wire ends. The equality between heat input and heat loss is the basis for King s equation, which relates the electrical parameters of the hot-wire to the flow parameters of the fluid. Hot-wire anemometry is based on convective heat transfer from a heated wire element placed in a fluid flow. Any change in the fluid flow condition that affects the heat transfer from the heated element will be detected virtually instantaneously by a constant-temperature Hot-wire anemometry system. The system implemented for this research is the IFA 300. The system is a fully-integrated, thermal anemometer-based system that measures mean and fluctuating velocity components in air, water, and other fluids. It also measures turbulence and makes localized temperature measurements. A constant-temperature anemometer is a bridge and amplifier circuit that controls a tiny wire at constant temperature. As a fluid flow passes over the heated sensor, the amplifier senses the bridge off-balance and adjusts the voltage to the top of the bridge, keeping the bridge in balance. The voltage on top of the bridge can then be related to the velocity of the flow. The bridge voltage is sensitive to temperature as well as velocity and so the built-in thermocouple circuit can be attached to a thermocouple that can measure the fluid temperature. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Moreno, Michelle

Improved Intraseasonal Variability in the NASA GEOS AGCM with 2-moment Microphysics and a Shallow Cumulus Parameterization

Weather and climate models have long struggled to realistically simulate the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Here we present a significant improvement in MJO simulation in NASA's GEOS atmospheric model with the implementation of 2-moment microphysics and the UW shallow cumulus parameterization. Comparing ten-year runs (2007-2016) with the old (1mom) and updated (2mom+shlw) model physics, the updated model has increased intra-seasonal variance with increased coherence. Surface fluxes and OLR are found to vary more realistically with precipitation, and a moisture budget suggests that changes in rain reevaporation and the cloud longwave feedback help support heavy precipitation. Preliminary results also show improved MJO hindcast skill.

Madden-Julian Oscillatio

Medium-Range River Flood Forecasts Using a Long Short-Term Memory Network

River flooding and the impacts are a concern for decision makers throughout the United States. Accurate medium-range forecasts (~3-7 days) are critical for providing advanced outlooks to emergency management officials. Unfortunately, accurately forecasting rainfall-runoff and the subsequent rise and fall within rivers remain a challenge in hydrological modeling. While complex physical modeling systems are the standard for representing the hydrological processes, they are computationally demanding and can require extensive calibration. Further, uncertainties remain in the model parameters and input data. The use of machine learning can reduce some of the computational demand while maintaining high accuracy. Therefore, this project makes use of a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network which explicitly accounts for the time-dependent nature of rainfall-runoff modeling. The developed LSTM was trained to predict river gauge height, or stage height, based on time-lagged input features which include: gauge height to initialize the model, the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center’s instance of the Land Information System (SPoRT-LIS) relative soil moisture to describe the rainfall infiltration rate, and 6-hr Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor quantitative precipitation estimate (MRMS QPE). The developed LSTM based system is then used to produce 7-day forecasts with a 6-hr temporal resolution using three different quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) from the NWS’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC), the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) model and the National Blend of Models (NBM). This trained modeling system has been implemented as an experimental product at over 100 different rivers in collaboration with at multiple National Weather Service (NWS) Forecast Offices and River Forecast Centers (RFC) across the eastern half of the United States. The developed LSTM model achieved average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) 0.89 higher than the equivalent medium-range National Water Model ensemble member forecast over a 7-day forecast. In addition to the initial development and evaluation, this project has continued to expand. While the initial model was developed for precipitation dominated basins, expansion of the project has taken it to basins effected by snow melt. This presentation will provide an overview of the project with focus on recent developments on incorporating snow melt processes into the model.

Andrew T. White

Aerothermodynamics of a MESUR Martian entry

Computational fluid dynamics models for the thermodynamics and transport properties used in an equilibrium version of the Langley Aerothermodynamics Upwind Relaxation Algorithm (LAURA) for Martian Atmospheric entries are described. In addition, the physical models used in a nonequilibrium version of LAURA for Martian-entry flows are described. Uncertainties exist in defining constants used in the transport properties for the equilibrium model and in many of the physical models for the nonequilibrium version. Solutions from the two codes using the best available constants are examined at the Martian-entry conditions characteristic of the Mars Environmental Survey (MESUR) mission. While the flowfields are near thermal equilibrium, chemical nonequilibrium effects are present in the entry cases examined. Convective heating at the stagnation point for these flows (assuming fully catalytic wall boundary conditions) is approximately 100 W/sq cm. Radiative heating is negligible.

Mitcheltree, R. A.

Designing observables for measurements with deep learning

Many analyses in particle and nuclear physics use simulations to infer fundamental, effective, or phenomenological parameters of the underlying physics models. When the inference is performed with unfolded cross sections, the observables are designed using physics intuition and heuristics. We propose to design targeted observables with machine learning. Unfolded, differential cross sections in a neural network output contain the most information about parameters of interest and can be well-measured by construction. The networks are trained using a custom loss function that rewards outputs that are sensitive to the parameter(s) of interest while simultaneously penalizing outputs that are different between particle-level and detector-level (to minimize detector distortions). We demonstrate this idea in simulation using two physics models for inclusive measurements in deep inelastic scattering. We find that the new approach is more sensitive than classical observables at distinguishing the two models and also has a reduced unfolding uncertainty due to the reduced detector distortions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS

Toward a Climate OSSE Framework for Satellite Mission Design

The rich history of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) does not yet include a well-established framework for using climate models. The need for a climate OSSE is triggered by the need to quantify the value of a particular measurement for reducing the uncertainty in climate predictions, which differ from numerical weather predictions in that they depend on future atmospheric composition rather than the current state of the weather. However, both weather and climate modeling communities share a need for motivating major observing system investments. Here, we outline a new framework for climate OSSEs that leverages the use of machine learning to calibrate climate model physics against existing satellite data. We demonstrate its application using NASA’s GISS-E3 model to objectively quantify the value of potential future improvements in spaceborne measurements of Earth’s planetary boundary layer. A mature climate OSSE framework should be able to quantitatively compare the ability of proposed observing system architectures to answer a climate-related question, thus offering added value throughout the mission design process, which is subject to increasingly rapid advances in instrument and satellite technology. Technical considerations include selection of observational benchmarks and climate projection metrics, approaches to pinpoint the sources of model physics uncertainty that dominate uncertainty in projections, and the use of instrument simulators. Community and policy-making considerations include the potential to interface with an established culture of model intercomparison projects and a growing need to economically assess the value-driven efficiency of social spending on Earth observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Physical & Cyber Security Modeling Interfacing Through Dante and ARCADE

Physical security is increasingly facing new threats from cyber attackers, for which there is little research in the way of characterizing this threat. This report discusses the efforts to combine cyber and physical security modeling tools to investigate this novel combinatorial threat space. To accomplish this, the Dante force-on-force modeling and simulation software and the Advanced Reactor Cyber Analysis and Development Environment (ARCADE) were integrated. Dante provides a 3D environment which models the physical world, while ARCADE provides the cyber and control systems world.

42 ENGINEERING

Correlating rainfall with remotely sensed microwave radiation using physically based models

This simulation study evaluates the response of a 21-cm radiometer, measuring the radiation emitted by a bare soil, to varying accumulations of rain. It is shown that correlations between the decrease in emissivity after a rain storm and the total accumulation depend strongly on the physical characteristics of the soil which affect its capacity to hold water. These are primarily soil texture and pre-rain soil moisture. A method is also discussed which would use the numerical models with remotely sensed microwave brightness and surface physical temperatures, along with conventional weather data, to estimate the total accumulation.

Camillo, P. J.

Selection of Sampling and Surrogate Modeling Methods for State-Point Evaluations of an AGN-201M Reactor

Nuclear reactor digital twins (DTs) have been proposed for use as a safeguards technology to efficiently monitor new and novel reactors as they come online. A safeguards DT needs to be capable of detecting misuse and diversion as they occur, requiring physics models to be accurate and efficient. Mathematical surrogate models are capable of achieving the necessary efficiency and can largely maintain the accuracy of higher-order models given a quality training sample. The Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) code framework is specifically equipped to generate training samples and create surrogate models using full-order reactor physics models. Utilizing an operational AGN-201M reactor’s specifications, two surrogate types were trained on samples of variable size, and using Cartesian products, Latin hypercube sampling, and quadrature sampling, each was compared and evaluated on accuracy when compared to a full-order Monte Carlo model. Both surrogate types were able to capture reactivity changes within 0.05 $ of the Monte Carlo model while reducing the computation costs by eight orders of magnitude.

MOOSE

Numerical modeling tools for chemical vapor deposition

Development of general numerical simulation tools for chemical vapor deposition (CVD) was the objective of this study. Physical models of important CVD phenomena were developed and implemented into the commercial computational fluid dynamics software FLUENT. The resulting software can address general geometries as well as the most important phenomena occurring with CVD reactors: fluid flow patterns, temperature and chemical species distribution, gas phase and surface deposition. The physical models are documented which are available and examples are provided of CVD simulation capabilities.

Jasinski, Thomas J.

Radiation physics and modelling for off-nadir satellite-sensing of non-Lambertian surfaces

The primary objective of this paper is to provide a deeper understanding of the physics of satellite remote-sensing when off-nadir observations are considered. Emphasis is placed on the analysis and modeling of atmospheric effects and the radiative transfer of non-Lambertian surface reflectance characteristics from ground-level to satellite locations. The relative importance of spectral, spatial, angular, and temporal reflectance characteristics for satellite-sensed identification of vegetation types in the visible and near-infrared wavelength regions is evaluated. The highest identification value is attributed to angular reflectance signatures. Using radiative transfer calculations to evaluate the atmospheric effects on angular reflectance distributions of vegetation surfaces, atmosphere-invariant angular reflectance features such as the 'hot spot' and the 'persistent valley' are identified. A new atmospheric correction formalism for complete angular reflectance distributions is described. A sample calculation demonstrates that a highly non-Lambertian measured surface reflectance distribution can be retrieved from simulated satellite data in the visible and near infrared to within about 20 percent accuracy for almost all view directions up to 60 deg off-nadir. Thus the high value of angular surface reflectance characteristics (the 'angular signature') for satellite-sensed feature identification is confirmed, which provides a scientific basis for future off-nadir satellite observations.

Gerstl, S. A.

Can general circulation models (GCMs) represent cloud liquid water path adjustments to aerosol–cloud interactions?

Abstract. General circulation models (GCMs), unlike other lines of evidence, indicate that anthropogenic aerosols cause a global-mean increase in cloud liquid water path (ℒ) and thus a negative adjustment to radiative forcing of the climate by aerosol–cloud interactions. In part 1 of this series of papers, we showed that this is true even in models that reproduce the negative correlation observed in present-day internal variability in ℒ and cloud droplet number concentration (Nd). We studied several possible confounding mechanisms that could explain the noncausal cloud–aerosol correlations in GCMs and that possibly contaminate observational estimates of radiative adjustments. Here, we perform single-column and full-atmosphere GCM experiments to investigate the causal model-physics mechanisms underlying the model radiative adjustment estimate. We find that both aerosol–cloud interaction mechanisms thought to be operating in real clouds – precipitation suppression and entrainment evaporation enhancement – are active in GCMs and behave qualitatively in agreement with physical process understanding. However, the modeled entrainment enhancement has a negligible global-mean effect. This raises the question of whether the GCM estimate is incorrect due to parametric or base-state representation errors or whether the process understanding gleaned from a limited set of canonical cloud cases is insufficiently representative of the diversity of clouds in the real climate. Regardless, even at limited resolution, the GCM physics appears able to parameterize the small-scale microphysics–turbulence interplay responsible for the entrainment enhancement mechanism. We suggest ways to resolve tension between current and future (storm-resolving) global modeling systems and other lines of evidence in synthesis climate projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES