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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 235 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Ab initio ultrafast spin dynamics in solids

Spin relaxation and decoherence is at the heart of spintronics and spin-based quantum information science. Currently, theoretical approaches that can accurately predict spin relaxation of general solids including necessary scattering pathways and are capable of nanosecond to millisecond simulation time are urgently needed. We present a first-principles real-time density-matrix approach based on Lindblad dynamics to simulate ultrafast spin dynamics for general solid-state systems. Through the complete first-principles descriptions of pump, probe, and scattering processes including electron-phonon, electron-impurity, and electron-electron scatterings with self-consistent electronic spin-orbit couplings, our method can directly simulate the ultrafast pump-probe measurements for coupled spin and electron dynamics over nanoseconds at any temperatures and doping levels. We first apply this method to a prototypical system GaAs and obtain excellent agreement with experiments. We found that the relative contributions of different scattering mechanisms and phonon modes differ considerably between spin and carrier relaxation processes. In sharp contrast to previous work based on model Hamiltonians, we point out that the electron-electron scattering is negligible at room temperature but becomes dominant at low temperatures for spin relaxation in n-type GaAs. We further examine ultrafast dynamics in novel spin-valleytronic materials: monolayer and bilayer WSe 2 with realistic defects. We find that spin relaxation is highly sensitive to local symmetry and chemical bonds around defects. For the bilayer WSe 2 , we identify the scattering pathways in ultrafast dynamics and determine relevant dynamical properties, essential to its utilization of unique spin-valley-layer locking effects. In conclusion, our work provides a predictive computational platform for spin dynamics in solids, which has potential for designing new materials ideal for spintronics and quantum information technology.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2021

Autonomous reinforcement learning agents for improving predictions and observations of extreme climate events

Primary Focus Area: This proposal addresses focus area 2, “Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques.” Science Challenge: Extreme climate events associated with severe weather, coastal and inland flooding, droughts, heat waves and wildfires are expected to increase in frequency and severity in the future. Due to the complexity and chaotic behavior of the climate system, accurately predicting and observing extreme climate events requires a tremendous amount of human intervention to run predictive climate simulations and deploy measurement systems. Extreme events often unfold very quickly, leaving little time to iterate on simulations or re-position instruments. Through reinforcement learning, autonomous AI agents can be designed to make real-time decisions to characterize extreme climate events more efficiently through adaptive models and targeted observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

IDEAS-Watersheds FY21 Annual Report for July 1, 2020-June 30, 2021

Watersheds play a critical role in our water supply infrastructure and require sustainable management in a changing environment. Sustainable management of watershed systems and their interaction with the built environment rely on understanding the hydrologic and biogeochemical processes that control watershed system dynamics and water availability and quality. The overarching objective of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Environmental System Science (ESS) program is to advance a robust, predictive understanding of how watersheds function and respond to perturbations as integrated hydrobiogeochemical systems. ESS supports a network of watershed testbeds within the United States where national laboratories and university partners work in interdisciplinary teams to advance watershed system science for energy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Poisson Log-Normal Process for Count Data Prediction

Modeling count data is important in physics and other scientific disciplines, where measurements often involve discrete, non-negative quantities such as photon or neutrino detection events. Traditional parametric approaches can be trained to generate integer-count predictions but may struggle with capturing complex, non-linear dependencies often observed in the data. Gaussian process (GP) regression provides a robust non-parametric alternative to modeling continuous data; however, it cannot generate integer outputs. We propose the Poisson Log-Normal (PoLoN) process, a framework that employs GP to model Poisson log-rates. As in GP regression, our approach relies on the correlations between data points captured via GP kernel structure rather than explicit functional parameterizations. We demonstrate that the PoLoN predictive distribution is Poisson-LogNormal and provide an algorithm for optimizing kernel hyperparameters. Furthermore, we adapt the PoLoN approach to the problem of detecting weak localized signals superimposed on a smoothly varying background - a task of considerable interest in many areas of science and engineering. Our framework allows us to predict the strength, location and width of the detected signals. We evaluate PoLoN's performance using both synthetic and real-world datasets, including the open dataset from CERN which was used to detect the Higgs boson at the Large Hadron Collider. Our results indicate that the PoLoN process can be used as a non-parametric alternative for analyzing, predicting, and extracting signals from integer-valued data.

Saha, Anushka [Rutgers U., Piscataway]↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Multicontinuum-Theory-Based Approach to the Analysis of Fiber-Reinforced Polymer Composites with Degraded Stiffness and Strength Properties Due to Moisture Absorption

Marine energy generation technologies such as wave and tidal power have great potential in meeting the need for renewable energy in the years ahead. Yet, many challenges remain associated with marine-based systems because of the corrosive environment. Conventional materials like metals are subject to rapid corrosive breakdown, crippling the lifespan of structures in such environments. Fiber-reinforced polymer composites offer an appealing alternative in their strength and corrosion resistance, but can experience degradation of mechanical properties as a result of moisture absorption. An investigation is conducted to test the application of a technique for micromechanical analysis of composites, known as multicontinuum theory and demonstrated in past works, as a mechanism for predicting the effects of prolonged moisture absorption on the performance of fiber-reinforced composites. Experimental tensile tests are performed on composite coupons with and without prolonged exposure to a salt water solution to obtain stiffness and strength properties. Multicontinuum theory is applied in conjunction with micromechanical modeling to deduce the effects of moisture absorption on the behavior of constituent materials within the composites. The results are consistent with experimental observations when guided by known mechanisms and trends from previous studies, indicating multicontinuum theory as a potentially effective tool in predicting the long-term performance of composites in marine environments.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learning Predicts the Timing and Shear Stress Evolution of Lab Earthquakes Using Active Seismic Monitoring of Fault Zone Processes

Abstract Machine learning (ML) techniques have become increasingly important in seismology and earthquake science. Lab‐based studies have used acoustic emission data to predict time‐to‐failure and stress state, and in a few cases, the same approach has been used for field data. However, the underlying physical mechanisms that allow lab earthquake prediction and seismic forecasting remain poorly resolved. Here, we address this knowledge gap by coupling active‐source seismic data, which probe asperity‐scale processes, with ML methods. We show that elastic waves passing through the lab fault zone contain information that can predict the full spectrum of labquakes from slow slip instabilities to highly aperiodic events. The ML methods utilize systematic changes in P‐wave amplitude and velocity to accurately predict the timing and shear stress during labquakes. The ML predictions improve in accuracy closer to fault failure, demonstrating that the predictive power of the ultrasonic signals improves as the fault approaches failure. Our results demonstrate that the relationship between the ultrasonic parameters and fault slip rate, and in turn, the systematically evolving real area of contact and asperity stiffness allow the gradient boosting algorithm to “learn” about the state of the fault and its proximity to failure. Broadly, our results demonstrate the utility of physics‐informed ML in forecasting the imminence of fault slip at the laboratory scale, which may have important implications for earthquake mechanics in nature.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Laboratory earthquake forecasting: A machine learning competition

Earthquake prediction, the long-sought holy grail of earthquake science, continues to confound Earth scientists. Could we make advances by crowdsourcing, drawing from the vast knowledge and creativity of the machine learning (ML) community? We used Google’s ML competition platform, Kaggle, to engage the worldwide ML community with a competition to develop and improve data analysis approaches on a forecasting problem that uses laboratory earthquake data. The competitors were tasked with predicting the time remaining before the next earthquake of successive laboratory quake events, based on only a small portion of the laboratory seismic data. The more than 4,500 participating teams created and shared more than 400 computer programs in openly accessible notebooks. Complementing the now well-known features of seismic data that map to fault criticality in the laboratory, the winning teams employed unexpected strategies based on rescaling failure times as a fraction of the seismic cycle and comparing input distribution of training and testing data. In addition to yielding scientific insights into fault processes in the laboratory and their relation with the evolution of the statistical properties of the associated seismic data, the competition serves as a pedagogical tool for teaching ML in geophysics. The approach may provide a model for other competitions in geosciences or other domains of study to help engage the ML community on problems of significance.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Earth System Model Improvement Pipeline via Uncertainty Attribution and Active Learning

Primary focal area: 2 (Predictive Modeling via AI): We develop methods to formally quantify uncertainties in Earth System models for the land-atmosphere coupled system. Science Challenge: Earth system models still have significant biases in historical predictions of the intensity and frequency of water cycling extremes (e.g., droughts and flood events), leading to low confidence in future projections. Uncertainties arise from incomplete understanding of land and atmospheric processes, and insufficient observational constraints on model parameters. Many observations, including those from key DOE investments such as ARM and AmeriFlux, are used to evaluate model performance but have not been used to formally quantify model uncertainty because of the expense of running ESM simulations. An efficient pipeline engaging cutting-edge machine learning (ML) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods is needed to improve the predictive understanding of water cycle extremes in the Earth system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reservoir Computing as a Tool for Climate Predictability Studies

Reduced-order dynamical models play a central role in developing our understanding of predictability of climate irrespective of whether we are dealing with the actual climate system or surrogate climate models. In this context, the linear inverse modeling (LIM) approach, by capturing a few essential interactions between dynamical components of the full system, has proven valuable in providing insights into predictability of the full system. We demonstrate that reservoir computing (RC), a form of learning suitable for systems with chaotic dynamics, provides an alternative nonlinear approach that improves on the predictive skill of the LIM approach. We do this in the example setting of predicting sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic in the preindustrial control simulation of a popular earth system model, the Community Earth System Model so that we can compare the performance of the new RC-based approach with the traditional LIM approach both when learning data are plentiful and when such data are more limited. The improved predictive skill of the RC approach over a wide range of conditions—larger number of retained EOF coefficients, extending well into the limited data regime, etc.—suggests that this machine-learning technique may have a use in climate predictability studies. While the possibility of developing a climate emulator—the ability to continue the evolution of the system on the attractor long after failing to be able to track the reference trajectory—is demonstrated in the Lorenz-63 system, it is suggested that further development of the RC approach may permit such uses of the new approach in more realistic predictability studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Multi-Trait Regressor Stacking Increased Genomic Prediction Accuracy of Sorghum Grain Composition

Genomic prediction has enabled plant breeders to estimate breeding values of unobserved genotypes and environments. The use of genomic prediction will be extremely valuable for compositional traits for which phenotyping is labor-intensive and destructive for most accurate results. We studied the potential of Bayesian multi-output regressor stacking (BMORS) model in improving prediction performance over single trait single environment (STSE) models using a grain sorghum diversity panel (GSDP) and a biparental recombinant inbred lines (RILs) population. A total of five highly correlated grain composition traits—amylose, fat, gross energy, protein and starch, with genomic heritability ranging from 0.24 to 0.59 in the GSDP and 0.69 to 0.83 in the RILs were studied. Average prediction accuracies from the STSE model were within a range of 0.4 to 0.6 for all traits across both populations except amylose (0.25) in the GSDP. Prediction accuracy for BMORS increased by 41% and 32% on average over STSE in the GSDP and RILs, respectively. Prediction of whole environments by training with remaining environments in BMORS resulted in moderate to high prediction accuracy. Our results show regression stacking methods such as BMORS have potential to accurately predict unobserved individuals and environments, and implementation of such models can accelerate genetic gain.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improvements of pre-emptive identification of particle accelerator failures using binary classifiers and dimensionality reduction

In this paper we look at the properties of the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) Differential Beam Current Monitor (DCM) data and various methods of data transformation to improve pre-emptive detection of machine trips. In this study, the foundation of the approach is the analysis of new underlying data and understanding various properties with the goal of faster classification, higher precision and higher recall with the aim to reduce false positives as low as required. The result of the research presented in this paper are a binary classifier capable of predicting accelerator failures with millisecond classification time, 96% precision, 58% true positive and 0% false positive rate and optimization techniques enabling real-time implementations.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Understanding and Predictability of Integrated Mountain Hydroclimate (Workshop Report)

Mountainous systems cover approximately 23% of Earth’s land and are distributed across all continents. They can capture and store atmospheric moisture that is then cycled through the terrestrial surface and subsurface system, released to downstream communities, and cycled back to the atmosphere. Mountain hydroclimate—characterized by steep gradients, geological, ecological, and biogeochemical diversity—is influenced by topographic forcing and elevated warming and susceptible to large subseasonal to multidecadal variability and rapid changes. Terrestrial hydrological and biogeochemical cycles also experience cascading effects from global warming impacts, such as multidecadal declines in mountain snowpack, longer growing seasons, and increased frequency and severity of extreme events like droughts and wildfires. However, little is known about the effects of these impacts and their feedbacks on climate systems and surface-subsurface compartments. Also unknown are the full implications of changing hydroclimate and extreme events on hydro biogeochemical cycles across atmosphere, terrestrial, and human systems in mountain regions and beyond. This knowledge gap is critical, given human reliance on mountain systems for stable water supply and quality. Mountain systems’ increasing vulnerability to climate change and human perturbations motivates the need to improve understanding of integrated mountain hydroclimate (IMHC) systems and their feedbacks and impacts on humans across scales. However, due to large heterogeneity and strong gradients, coupled natural-human processes in mountain regions present significant challenges for observations, modeling, predictions, and projections. Motivated by gaps in mountain hydroclimate understanding, observations, and modeling and the need for credible projections of future changes, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Biological and Environmental Research (BER) program organized a virtual workshop on “Understanding and Predictability of Integrated Mountain Hydroclimate.” Sponsored by BER’s Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division (EESSD), the workshop aimed to inform and catalyze EESSD’s growing interests in enhancing predictive understanding of IMHC. Organizers structured the workshop to identify (1) knowledge gaps, (2) observational and modeling challenges, (3) short-term (1 to 3 years) and long-term (10 years and beyond) research opportunities, and (4) strategies for fostering collaboration and coordination. To address the outstanding challenges of IMHC, the workshop included two sessions organized by disciplinary, cross-disciplinary, and crosscutting science topics. The disciplinary and cross-disciplinary topics focused on essential IMHC elements: atmosphere, terrestrial, and human systems and their interactions. Breakout sessions on disciplinary and cross-disciplinary topics facilitated identification of crosscutting topics and central emerging themes. Session 1 focused on connecting existing DOE investments to accelerate progress related to scientific challenges in understanding mountain hydroclimate. In Session 2, participants further explored key Session 1 takeaways through the lens of multiagency collaborations and coordination.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Pyomo.DOE: An open-source package for model-based design of experiments in Python

Predictive mathematical models are a cornerstone of science and engineering. Yet selecting, calibrating, and validating said science-based models often remains an art in practice. Model-based design of experiments (MBDoE) provides a systematic framework to maximize information gain from experiments while minimizing time and resource costs. But MBDoE remains limited to niche application areas, in part because practitioners must integrate expertise in statistics, computational optimization, and modeling. To help reduce this barrier, we introduce Pyomo.DOE, an open-source package for MBDoE. Pyomo.DOE uses a nonlinear sensitivity analysis code k_aug to quickly approximate the Fisher information matrix and leverages a new stochastic programming abstraction. We demonstrate Pyomo.DOE with the first application of MBDoE to fixed-bed breakthrough experiments, which highlights the power of Pyomo.DOE to quantify the value of experimental modifications a priori for large-scale partial differential-algebraic equation (PDAE) models. Here we also provide a mathematical primer on MBDoE targeted at general chemical engineers.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Navigating the Path to Autonomy: Real-World Lessons from an Air-Free Self-Driving Laboratory

While autonomous experimentation has promise to accelerate discovery in physcial sciences, the real-world integration of predictive models and experimentation is non-trivial. Here we describe the genesis of a self-driving laboratory (SDL) for air-sensitive chemistry at Argonne National Laboratory and demonstrate the experimental design considerations needed for high-throughput experiments before predictive models can lead to scientific discovery. Our SDL was designed to explore battery electrolyte stability. Our final SDL utilized plate readers in a glovebox with a nitrogen atmosphere to perform kinetic assays and screen hundreds of battery-relevant solvents. However, the roadmap to autonomy and airfree-friendly experimentation required the complex evaluation of several spectroscopic and chromatographic methods. The greatest experimental challenges were (a) developing long-term sampling methods that remained air-free; (b) accelerating kinetics to advance reactivity projections; and (c) ensuring labware compatibility with nonaqueous solvents used in battery chemistry. Our experiences highlight the practical gap between closed-loop aspirations and the realities of chemical discovery, offering lessons on the challenges of transferring every day laboratory workflows to autonomy. These results suggest a more realistic blueprint for autonomy in chemistry—one that balances thoughtful and realistic experimental formulation.

Robertson, Lily A.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development of uncertainty-aware equation-of-state models: Application to copper

Sophisticated hydrodynamic codes are commonly used to understand and predict events relevant to natural and applied sciences. The degree to which these simulations reflect reality, however, is dependent on how well we understand the materials and underlying physics involved. These research communities need material models that communicate the uncertainty in the physical properties, which at their basest form comes from the uncertainty in the underlying experimental measurements. Additionally, we have constructed a new framework for using both experimental measurements and the associated experimental uncertainties to build equation-of-state models that reflect not only current best measurements but also the accuracy of those measurements. This method had been used to construct an ensemble of equation-of-state models for copper that communicates the experimental uncertainties in the data through the equation-of-state model, which is available for application in any simulation metric of interest.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Selecting durable building envelope systems with machine learning assisted hygrothermal simulations database

Hygrothermal simulations provide insight into the energy performance and moisture durability of building envelope components under dynamic conditions. The inputs required for hygrothermal simulations are extensive, and carrying out simulations and analyses requires expert knowledge. An expert system, the Building Science Advisor (BSA), has been developed to predict the performance and select the energy-efficient and durable building envelope systems for different climates. The BSA consists of decision rules based on expert opinions and thousands of parametric simulation results for selected wall systems. The number of potential wall systems results in millions, too many to simulate all of them. We present how machine learning can help predict durability data, such as mold growth, while minimizing the number of simulations needed to run. The simulation results are used for training and validation of machine learning tools for predicting wall durability. We tested Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Gradient Boosted Decision Trees (GBDT) for their applicability and model accuracy. Models developed with both methods showed adequate prediction performance (root mean square error of 0.195 and 0.209, respectively). Finally, we introduce how the information supports guidance for envelope design via an easy-to-use web-based tool that does not require the end-user to run hygrothermal simulations.

Salonvaara, Mikael↗
DOE OSTI2021

A best-practice guide to predicting plant traits from leaf-level hyperspectral data using partial least squares regression

Partial least squares regression (PLSR) modelling is a statistical technique for correlating datasets, and involves the fitting of a linear regression between two matrices. One application of PLSR enables leaf traits to be estimated from hyperspectral optical reflectance data, facilitating rapid, high-throughput, non-destructive plant phenotyping. This technique is of interest and importance in a wide range of contexts including crop breeding and ecosystem monitoring. The lack of a consensus in the literature on how to perform PLSR means that interpreting model results can be challenging, applying existing models to novel datasets can be impossible, and unknown or undisclosed assumptions can lead to incorrect or spurious predictions. We address this lack of consensus by proposing best practices for using PLSR to predict plant traits from leaf-level hyperspectral data, including a discussion of when PLSR is applicable, and recommendations for data collection. Further, we provide a tutorial to demonstrate how to develop a PLSR model, in the form of an R script accompanying this manuscript. This practical guide will assist all those interpreting and using PLSR models to predict leaf traits from spectral data, and advocates for a unified approach to using PLSR for predicting traits from spectra in the plant sciences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cosmological Hydrodynamics at Exascale: A Trillion-Particle Leap in Capability

Resolving the most fundamental questions in cosmology requires simulations that match the scale, fidelity, and physical complexity demanded by next-generation sky surveys. To achieve the realism needed for this critical scientific partnership, detailed gas dynamics must be treated self-consistently with gravity for end-to-end modeling of structure formation. Exascale computing enables simulations that span survey-scale volumes while incorporating key astrophysical processes that shape complex cosmic structures. We present results from CRK-HACC, a cosmological hydrodynamics code built for extreme scalability. Using separation-of-scale techniques, GPU-resident tree solvers, in situ analysis pipelines, and multi-tiered I/O, CRK-HACCexecuted Frontier-E: a four trillion particle full-sky simulation, over an order of magnitude larger than previous efforts. The run achieved 513.1 PFLOPs peak performance, processing 46.6 billion particles per second and writing more than 100 PB of data in just over one week of runtime. Frontier-E marks a significant advance in predictive modeling for next-generation cosmological science.

Frontiere, Nicholas [Argonne National Laboratory (↗