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DOE OSTI2024

Identifying Robust Decarbonization Pathways for the Western U.S. Electric Power System Under Deep Climate Uncertainty

Climate change threatens the resource adequacy of future power systems. Existing research and practice lack frameworks for identifying decarbonization pathways that are robust to climate-related uncertainty. We create such an analytical framework, then use it to assess the robustness of alternative pathways to achieving 60% emissions reductions from 2022 levels by 2040 for the Western U.S. power system. Our framework integrates power system planning and resource adequacy models with 100 climate realizations from a large climate ensemble. Climate realizations drive electricity demand; thermal plant availability; and wind, solar, and hydropower generation. Among five initial decarbonization pathways, all exhibit modest to significant resource adequacy failures under climate realizations in 2040, but certain pathways experience significantly less resource adequacy failures at little additional cost relative to other pathways. By identifying and planning for an extreme climate realization that drives the largest resource adequacy failures across our pathways, we produce a new decarbonization pathway that has no resource adequacy failures under any climate realizations. This new pathway is roughly 5% more expensive than other pathways due to greater capacity investment, and shifts investment from wind to solar and natural gas generators. Our analysis suggests modest increases in investment costs can add significant robustness against climate change in decarbonizing power systems. Our framework can help power system planners adapt to climate change by stress testing future plans to potential climate realizations, and offers a unique bridge between energy system and climate modeling.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS2013

Towards Real-time, On-board, Hardware-Supported Sensor and Software Health Management for Unmanned Aerial Systems

Unmanned aerial systems (UASs) can only be deployed if they can effectively complete their missions and respond to failures and uncertain environmental conditions while maintaining safety with respect to other aircraft as well as humans and property on the ground. In this paper, we design a real-time, on-board system health management (SHM) capability to continuously monitor sensors, software, and hardware components for detection and diagnosis of failures and violations of safety or performance rules during the flight of a UAS. Our approach to SHM is three-pronged, providing: (1) real-time monitoring of sensor and/or software signals; (2) signal analysis, preprocessing, and advanced on the- fly temporal and Bayesian probabilistic fault diagnosis; (3) an unobtrusive, lightweight, read-only, low-power realization using Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs) that avoids overburdening limited computing resources or costly re-certification of flight software due to instrumentation. Our implementation provides a novel approach of combining modular building blocks, integrating responsive runtime monitoring of temporal logic system safety requirements with model-based diagnosis and Bayesian network-based probabilistic analysis. We demonstrate this approach using actual data from the NASA Swift UAS, an experimental all-electric aircraft.

System & Software Health Management↗

NASA NTRS1992

Digital tracking loops for a programmable digital modem

In this paper, an analysis and hardware emulation of the tracking loops for a very flexible programmable digital modem (PDM) will be presented. The modem is capable of being programmed for 2, 4, 8, 16-PSK, 16-QAM, MSK, and Offset-QPSK modulation schemes over a range of data rates from 2.34 to 300 Mbps with programmable spectral occupancy from 1.2 to 1.8 times the symbol rate; these operational parameters are executable in burst or continuous mode. All of the critical processing in both the modulator and demodulator is done at baseband with very high-speed digital hardware and memory. Quadrature analog front-ends are used for translation between baseband and the IF center frequency. The modulator is based on a table lookup approach, where precomputed samples are stored in memory and clocked out according to the incoming data pattern. The sample values are predistorted to counteract the effects of the other filtering functions in the link as well as any transmission impairments. The demodulator architecture was adapted from a joint estimator-detector (JED) mathematical analysis. Its structure is applicable to most signalling formats that can be represented in a two-dimensional space. The JED realization uses interdependent, mutually aiding tracking loops with post-detection data feedback. To expedite and provide for more reliable synchronization, initial estimates for these loops are computed in a parallel acquisition processor. The cornerstone of the demodulator realization is the pre-averager received data filter which allows operation over a broad range of data rates without any hardware changes and greatly simplifies the implementation complexity. The emulation results confirmed tracking loop operation over the entire range of operational parameters listed above, as well as the capability of achieving and maintaining synchronization at BER's in excess of 10(exp -1). The emulation results also showed very close agreement with the tracking loop analysis, and validated the resolution apportionment of the various hardware elements in the tracking loops.

Poklemba, John J.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Ares I-X In-Flight Modal Identification

Operational modal analysis is a procedure that allows the extraction of modal parameters of a structure in its operating environment. It is based on the idealized premise that input to the structure is white noise. In some cases, when free decay responses are corrupted by unmeasured random disturbances, the response data can be processed into cross-correlation functions that approximate free decay responses. Modal parameters can be computed from these functions by time domain identification methods such as the Eigenvalue Realization Algorithm (ERA). The extracted modal parameters have the same characteristics as impulse response functions of the original system. Operational modal analysis is performed on Ares I-X in-flight data. Since the dynamic system is not stationary due to propellant mass loss, modal identification is only possible by analyzing the system as a series of linearized models over short periods of time via a sliding time-window of short time intervals. A time-domain zooming technique was also employed to enhance the modal parameter extraction. Results of this study demonstrate that free-decay time domain modal identification methods can be successfully employed for in-flight launch vehicle modal extraction.

Bartkowicz, Theodore J.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Large Scale Transcriptional Analysis of Legacy Spaceflight Tissues from the NASA Institutional Scientific Collection

The NASA Institutional Scientific Collection (ISC) has amassed a collection of valuable space biology samples spanning from early Space Shuttle missions to recent missions on the International Space Station (ISS). However, the full potential of this archive has not been realized, with many samples having been stored for decades without being re-accessed. Given the pace of analytical advancement since the ISC began accumulating samples, we undertook a systematic transcriptional analysis of these samples to reveal additional patterns that may have been missed during the original investigations. We selected 93 mouse and rat samples from 5 separate Space Shuttle, ISS and ground-analogue studies with a focus on muscle, spleen and thymus tissues to allow identification of important changes related to musculoskeletal unloading and immune function. RNA extracted from these tissues was consistently of a quality and we are now generating transcriptional profiling data from sample set. This resulting data will be immediately released through the GeneLab data systems for open analysis by the space biology community. While this study will stand on its own, it will also serve as a model for future, comprehensive, analyses of the ISC.

Rodent↗

NASA NTRS1989

Performance analysis of fault-tolerant systems in parallel execution of conversations

The execution overhead inherent in the conversation scheme, which is a scheme for realizing fault-tolerant cooperating processes free of the domino effect, is analyzed. Multiprocessor/multicomputer systems capable of parallel execution of conversation components are considered and a queuing network model of such systems is adopted. Based on the queuing model, various performance indicators, including system throughput, average number of processors idling inside a conversation due to the synchronization required, and average time spent in the conversation, have been evaluated numerically for several application environments. The numeric results are discussed and several essential performance characteristics of the conversation scheme are derived. For example, when the number of participant processes is not large, say less than six, the system performance is highly affected by the synchronization required on the processes in a conversation, and not so much by the probability of acceptance-test failure.

Kim, K. H.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Enhanced realization identification of physical modes

Physical structures are often sufficiently complicated to preclude constructing an accurate mathematical model of the system dynamics from simple analysis using the laws of physics. Consequently, determination of an accurate model requires utilization of (generally noisy) output measurements from dynamic tests. In this paper, a robust method for constructing accurate, structural-dynamic models from discrete time-domain measurements is presented. The method processes the measurements in order to determine the number of modes present, the damping and frequency of each mode, and the mode shape. The structure may be highly damped. Although the mode-shape identification is more sensitive to measurement noise than the order, frequency, and damping identification, the method is considerably less sensitive to noise than other leading methods. Accurate detection of the modal parameters and mode shapes is demonstrated for modes with damping ratios exceeding 15 percent.

Roemer, Michael J.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Control of a flexible bracing manipulator: Integration of current research work to realize the bracing manipulator

All research results about flexible manipulator control were integrated to show a control scenario of a bracing manipulator. First, dynamic analysis of a flexible manipulator was done for modeling. Second, from the dynamic model, the inverse dynamic equation was derived, and the time domain inverse dynamic method was proposed for the calculation of the feedforward torque and the desired flexible coordinate trajectories. Third, a tracking controller was designed by combining the inverse dynamic feedforward control with the joint feedback control. The control scheme was applied to the tip position control of a single link flexible manipulator for zero and non-zero initial condition cases. Finally, the contact control scheme was added to the position tracking control. A control scenario of a bracing manipulator is provided and evaluated through simulation and experiment on a single link flexible manipulator.

Kwon, Dong-Soo↗

NASA NTRS1979

Programs for high-speed Fourier, Mellin and Fourier-Bessel transforms

Several FORTRAN program modules for performing one-dimensional and two-dimensional discrete Fourier transforms, Mellin, and Fourier-Bessel transforms are described along with programs that realize the algebra of high speed Fourier transforms on a computer. The programs can perform numerical harmonic analysis of functions, synthesize complex optical filters on a computer, and model holographic image processing methods.

Ikhabisimov, D. K.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Earth rotation from a simultaneous reduction of LLR and LAGEOS laser ranging data

As the techniques of lunar and artificial satellite laser ranging mature, emphasis is being placed upon the use of these observations to monitor the earth's rotation. It is important to note, however, that at the present time neither technique alone can furnish all three components of this rotation to an accuracy which surpasses those results obtained from classical techniques. The present study represents the first stages of an investigation which has the objective to combine Lageos satellite and lunar laser ranging observations. It is hoped that the proper implementation of such a process might eliminate the shortcomings inherent in each technique, while accentuating the advantages of each. Attention is given to data and model compatibilities, analysis techniques, and numerical results. The presented results are indicative of the great progress which has been realized recently concerning an appropriate combination of Lageos and lunar laser ranging results

Shelus, P. J.↗

NASA NTRS1986

An Eigensystem Realization Algorithm in Frequency Domain for modal parameter identification

This paper demonstrates the close conceptual relationships between time domain and frequency domain approaches to identification of modal parameters for linear systems. A frequency domain eigensystem realization algorithm, via transfer functions, is developed using a known procedure formulated for a time domain eigensystem realization algorithm, via free decay measurement data. An important feature is the capability of windowing to concentrate analysis on the frequency range of interest. The procedure of overlap averaging is used to produce smoother spectra to reduce the effect of noise on identified modal parameters. Examples from simulation and experiments are given to illustrate the validity of formulations derived in the paper.

Juang, J.-N.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Simulation experiments for testing the assimilation of geostationary satellite temperature retrievals into a numerical prediction model

A simulation experiment is presented which tests a procedure that assimilates temperature soundings from geostationary satellites using a method developed by Gal-Chen (1983). The simulation is used to decide whether the increased temporal resolution of geostationary satellite data can be used to improve numerical simulation of a baroclinically unstable wave, and to assess the impact of gaps in the satellite sounding fields on the model simulations. Background information on the simulation experiment is presented, including discussion of the variational approach utilized, the numerical model, updating procedures, and control run. The simulation results indicate that, for the case of a baroclinically unstable wave, considerable improvements in the short-range forecast may be realized if geostationary satellite data are inserted with a frequency near 1 hr during a 6 hr analysis cycle compared with a single insertion.

Gal-Chen, T.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Sparse distributed memory prototype: Principles of operation

Sparse distributed memory is a generalized random access memory (RAM) for long binary words. Such words can be written into and read from the memory, and they can be used to address the memory. The main attribute of the memory is sensitivity to similarity, meaning that a word can be read back not only by giving the original right address but also by giving one close to it as measured by the Hamming distance between addresses. Large memories of this kind are expected to have wide use in speech and scene analysis, in signal detection and verification, and in adaptive control of automated equipment. The memory can be realized as a simple, massively parallel computer. Digital technology has reached a point where building large memories is becoming practical. The research is aimed at resolving major design issues that have to be faced in building the memories. The design of a prototype memory with 256-bit addresses and from 8K to 128K locations for 256-bit words is described. A key aspect of the design is extensive use of dynamic RAM and other standard components.

Flynn, Michael J.↗

NASA NTRS1994

On the dynamics of small-scale vorticity in isotropic turbulence

It was previously shown that the strong vorticity in isotropic turbulence is organized into tubular vortices ('worms') whose properties were characterized through the use of full numerical simulations at several Reynolds numbers. At the time most of the observations were kinematic, and several scaling laws were discovered for which there was no theoretical explanation. In the meantime, further analysis of the same fields yielded new information on the generation of the vortices, and it was realized that even if they had to be formed by stretching, they were at any given moment actually compressed at many points of their axes. This apparent contradiction was partially explained by postulating axial inertial waves induced by the nonuniformity of the vortex cores, which helped to 'spread' the axial strain and allowed the vortices to remain compact even if not uniformly stretched. The existence of such solutions was recently proved numerically. The present report discusses a set of new numerical simulations of isotropic turbulence, and a reanalysis of the old ones, in an effort to prove or disprove the presence of these waves in actual turbulent flows and to understand the dynamics, as opposed to the kinematics, of the vortices.

Jimenez, Javier↗

NASA NTRS2006

Trade Space Assessment for Human Exploration Mission Design

Many human space exploration mission architecture assessments have been performed over the years by diverse organizations and individuals. Direct comparison of metrics among these studies is extremely difficult due to widely varying assumptions involving projected technology readiness, mission goals, acceptable risk criteria, and socio-political environments. However, constant over the years have been the physical laws of celestial dynamics and rocket propulsion systems. A finite diverse yet finite architecture trade space should exist which captures methods of human exploration - particularly of the Moon and Mars - by delineating technical trades and cataloging the physically realizable options of each. A particular architectural approach should then have a traceable path through this "trade tree". It should be pointed out that not every permutation of paths will result in a physically realizable mission approach, but cataloging options that have been examined by past studies should help guide future analysis. This effort was undertaken in two phases by multi-center NASA working groups in the spring and summer of 2004 using more than thirty years of past studies to "flesh out" the Moon-Mars human exploration trade space. The results are presented, not as a "trade tree", which would be unwieldy, but as a "menu" of potential technical options as a function of mission phases. This is envisioned as a tool to aid future mission designers by offering guidance to relevant past analyses.

Joosten, B. Kent↗

NASA NTRS2007

A Return to Innovative Engineering Design, Critical Thinking and Systems Engineering

I believe we are facing a critical time where innovative engineering design is of paramount importance to the success of our aerospace industry. However, the very qualities and attributes necessary for enhancing, educating, and mentoring a creative spirit are in decline in important areas. The importance of creativity and innovation in this country was emphasized by a special edition of the Harvard Business Review OnPoint entitled: "The Creative Company" which compiled a series of past and present articles on the subject of creativity and innovation and stressed its importance to our national economy. There is also a recognition of a lack of engineering, critical thinking and problem-solving skills in our education systems and a trend toward trying to enhance those skills by developing K-12 educational programs such as Project Lead the Way, "Science for All Americans", Benchmarks 2061 , etc. In addition, with respect to spacecraft development, we have a growing need for young to mid-level engineers with appropriate experience and skills in spacecraft design, development, analysis, testing, and systems engineering. As the Director of Engineering at NASA's Johnson Space Center, I realized that sustaining engineering support of an operational human spacecraft such as the Space Shuttle is decidedly different than engineering design and development skills necessary for designing a new spacecraft such as the Crew Exploration Vehicle of the Constellation Program. We learned a very important lesson post Columbia in that the Space Shuttle is truly an experimental and not an operational vehicle and the strict adherence to developed rules and processes and chains of command of an inherently bureaucratic organizational structure will not protect us from a host of known unknowns let alone unknown unknowns. There are no strict rules, processes, or procedures for understanding anomalous results of an experiment, anomalies with an experimental spacecraft like Shuttle, or in the conceptual design of a spacecraft. Engineering design is as much an art as it is a science. The critical thinking skills necessary to uncover lurking problems in an experimental design and creatively develop solutions are some of the same skills necessary to design a new spacecraft. Thus, I believe engineers unfamiliar with or removed from design and development need time to transition and develop the required skill set to be effective spacecraft designers. I believe the creative process necessary in design can be enhanced and even taught as early as grades K-12 and should continue to be nurtured and developed at the university level and beyond. I am going to present a strategy for developing learning teams to address complex multidisciplinary problems and to creatively develop solutions to those problems rapidly at minimal cost. I will frame a real problem, the development of on-orbit thermal protection system repair of the Space Shuttle, and step through the series of skills necessary to enhance the creative process. The case study I will illustrate is based on a real project, the R&D Reinforced Carbon-Carbon (RCC) Repair Team's development of on-orbit repair concepts for damaged Space Shuttle RCC nose cap and/or leading edges.

Camarda, Charles J.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Feasibility of a Networked Air Traffic Infrastructure Validation Environment for Advanced NextGen Concepts

Abstract-Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) applications reliant upon aircraft data links such as Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) offer a sweeping modernization of the National Airspace System (NAS), but the aviation stakeholder community has not yet established a positive business case for equipage and message content standards remain in flux. It is necessary to transition promising Air Traffic Management (ATM) Concepts of Operations (ConOps) from simulation environments to full-scale flight tests in order to validate user benefits and solidify message standards. However, flight tests are prohibitively expensive and message standards for Commercial-off-the-Shelf (COTS) systems cannot support many advanced ConOps. It is therefore proposed to simulate future aircraft surveillance and communications equipage and employ an existing commercial data link to exchange data during dedicated flight tests. This capability, referred to as the Networked Air Traffic Infrastructure Validation Environment (NATIVE), would emulate aircraft data links such as ADS-B using in-flight Internet and easily-installed test equipment. By utilizing low-cost equipment that is easy to install and certify for testing, advanced ATM ConOps can be validated, message content standards can be solidified, and new standards can be established through full-scale flight trials without necessary or expensive equipage or extensive flight test preparation. This paper presents results of a feasibility study of the NATIVE concept. To determine requirements, six NATIVE design configurations were developed for two NASA ConOps that rely on ADS-B. The performance characteristics of three existing in-flight Internet services were investigated to determine whether performance is adequate to support the concept. Next, a study of requisite hardware and software was conducted to examine whether and how the NATIVE concept might be realized. Finally, to determine a business case, economic factors were evaluated and a preliminary cost-benefit analysis was performed.

McCormack, Michael J.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Central Africa Energy: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Explore Flared Gas as an Energy Source Alternative to Biomass in Central Africa

Much of Central Africa's economy is centered on oil production. Oil deposits lie below vast amounts of compressed natural gas. The latter is often flared off during oil extraction due to a lack of the infrastructure needed to utilize it for productive energy generation. Though gas flaring is discouraged by many due to its contributions to greenhouse emissions, it represents a waste process and is rarely tracked or recorded in this region. In contrast to this energy waste, roughly 80% of Africa's population lacks access to electricity and in turn uses biomass such as wood for heat and light. In addition to the dangers incurred from collecting and using biomass, the practice commonly leads to ecological change through the acquisition of wood from forests surrounding urban areas. The objective of this project was to gain insight on domestic energy usage in Central Africa, specifically Angola, Gabon, and the Republic of Congo. This was done through an analysis of deforestation, an estimation of gas flared, and a suitability study for the infrastructure needed to realize the natural gas resources. The energy from potential natural gas production was compared to the energy equivalent of the biomass being harvested. A site suitability study for natural gas pipeline routes from flare sites to populous locations was conducted to assess the feasibility of utilizing natural gas for domestic energy needs. Analyses and results were shared with project partners, as well as this project's open source approach to assessing the energy sector. Ultimately, Africa's growth demands energy for its people, and natural gas is already being produced by the flourishing petroleum industry in numerous African countries. By utilizing this gas, Africa could reduce flaring, recuperate the financial and environmental loss that flaring accounts for, and unlock a plentiful domestic energy source for its people. II. Introduction Background Africa is home to numerous burgeoning economies; a significant number rely on oil production as their primary source of revenue. Relative to its size and population density, the continent has a wealth of natural resources, including oil and natural gas deposits. The exploration of these resources is not a new endeavor, but rather one that spans decades, up to a century in some places. Their resources, if realized, could provide a great means of economic and social mobility for the people of Africa. Currently, Africa represents about 12 % of the energy market, yet at the same time, consumes only 3 % of the world's energy (Kasekende 2009). The higher

Jones, Amber↗