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NASA NTRS2004

Development and Evaluation of an Airborne Separation Assurance System for Autonomous Aircraft Operations

NASA Langley Research Center is developing an Autonomous Operations Planner (AOP) that functions as an Airborne Separation Assurance System for autonomous flight operations. This development effort supports NASA s Distributed Air-Ground Traffic Management (DAG-TM) operational concept, designed to significantly increase capacity of the national airspace system, while maintaining safety. Autonomous aircraft pilots use the AOP to maintain traffic separation from other autonomous aircraft and managed aircraft flying under today's Instrument Flight Rules, while maintaining traffic flow management constraints assigned by Air Traffic Service Providers. AOP is designed to facilitate eventual implementation through careful modeling of its operational environment, interfaces with other aircraft systems and data links, and conformance with established flight deck conventions and human factors guidelines. AOP uses currently available or anticipated data exchanged over modeled Arinc 429 data buses and an Automatic Dependent Surveillance Broadcast 1090 MHz link. It provides pilots with conflict detection, prevention, and resolution functions and works with the Flight Management System to maintain assigned traffic flow management constraints. The AOP design has been enhanced over the course of several experiments conducted at NASA Langley and is being prepared for an upcoming Joint Air/Ground Simulation with NASA Ames Research Center.

Barhydt, Richard↗

DOE OSTI2020

2018 Renewable Energy Grid Integration Data Book

The 2018 Renewable Energy Grid Integration Data Book identifies the status, key trends, challenges, and solutions of renewable energy grid integration in a highly visual format. It provides an overview of selected key grid integration metrics that represent complex interactions among generation characteristics, market rules, and environmental and safety factors, which may vary by geography, season, and time of day; and the data book presents metrics that either indicate how much variable renewable energy (VRE) is currently being integrated onto the grid or measure factors that may increase or decrease the challenges associated with integrating VRE generation onto the grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2000

A signal detection model predicts the effects of set size on visual search accuracy for feature, conjunction, triple conjunction, and disjunction displays

Recently, quantitative models based on signal detection theory have been successfully applied to the prediction of human accuracy in visual search for a target that differs from distractors along a single attribute (feature search). The present paper extends these models for visual search accuracy to multidimensional search displays in which the target differs from the distractors along more than one feature dimension (conjunction, disjunction, and triple conjunction displays). The model assumes that each element in the display elicits a noisy representation for each of the relevant feature dimensions. The observer combines the representations across feature dimensions to obtain a single decision variable, and the stimulus with the maximum value determines the response. The model accurately predicts human experimental data on visual search accuracy in conjunctions and disjunctions of contrast and orientation. The model accounts for performance degradation without resorting to a limited-capacity spatially localized and temporally serial mechanism by which to bind information across feature dimensions.

Non-NASA Center↗

DOE OSTI2024

Spatial-Temporal PV Hosting Capacity Estimation and Evaluation

Evaluating Photovoltaic Hosting Capacity (PVHC) is an essential step in the process of integrating solar energy into power grids, particularly when focusing on the distribution network (DN) as the primary integration target. PVHC needs to be investigated, especially in cases where the grids are unbalanced, and their operational conditions vary spatially and temporally. This motivation prompted us to propose a scalable model tailored to this application. In this paper, we applied linearization to the alternating current optimal power flow (AC-OPF) and solar inverters, transforming the original problem into a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) problem. Additionally, we accounted for the battery energy storage system (BESS) as a time-coupling factor for calculating PVHC. We then compared the PVHC results between the IEEE-13 bus and SMART-DS San Francisco (SFO) cases and discussed the extent to which BESS can enhance the PVHC of a DN. Furthermore, we designed a web-based graphical visualization for the SFO case, enabling user interaction with raw data and simulation results on a map through a graphical user interface (GUI). In summary, our results and findings provide valuable insights for future three-phase unbalanced AC-OPF PVHC practices and their visualization.

AC-optimal power flow↗

DOE OSTI2025

CERF: IM3 Projected Western US Power Plant Locations

Overview The Capacity Expansion Regional Feasibility (CERF) model is an open-source geospatial python package that provides new power plant locations at a 1km resolution. The model ingests U.S. state or regional-scale electricity system capacity expansion plans, such as those produced by the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM-USA), and identifies feasible, site-specific locations for individual new power plants (renewable and non-renewable). CERF combines high-resolution geospatial suitability analyses with an economic algorithm that selects individual plant siting locations based on grid interconnection costs and the locational marginal value of new generation. The model incorporates a wide range of dynamic constraints and opportunities, such as protected lands, population density, existing infrastructure, and water availability. This dataset provides CERF power plant siting results for IM3 Phase 2 simulations across eight different scenarios for the Western US through 2055. The scenarios include combinations of two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP3 and SSP5) with four high-resolution climate projections specific to the United States (see, https://tgw-data.msdlive.org/). These climate projections include "hotter" and "cooler" variants for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The resulting eight simulations are: rcp45cooler_ssp3 rcp45cooler_ssp5 rcp45hotter_ssp3 rcp45hotter_ssp5 rcp85cooler_ssp3 rcp85cooler_ssp5 rcp85hotter_ssp3 rcp85hotter_ssp5 CERF siting results in this dataset correspond to capacity expansion plans in the GCAM-USA IM3 Phase 2 simulation data and are available for each of the above scenarios. Data Details Temporal Range: 2015-2055 in 5-year timesteps. Note that 2015 is the experiment base year and 2020 and beyond represent model simulation years. Spatial Range: Plant locations are provided for the eleven states in the Western US including Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, New Mexico, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming. Spatial Resolution: 1 km-squared, provided in x and y coordinates Geospatial Projection: Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) File Type: csv The dataset contains subdirectories for each of the eight scenarios described in the overview. Each scenario folder contains two subfolders with the following information: 1. Power Plant Data This directory contains a single .csv file of power plant locations for both pre-existing (non-CERF sited plants in operation in 2015) and new (CERF-sited) power plants across the temporal range along with additional CERF model output parameters for CERF-sited plants. Plant with a siting year earlier than 2020 correspond to facilities that are operational leading into the first timestep CERF simulation. For a more detailed description of CERF model output parameters, see the CERF model documentation. Note that the cerf_plant_id parameter is unique within each scenario file but not across scenario files. Parameter Descriptions scenario - Name of scenario cerf_plant_id - Unique siting identifier cerf_sited - If True, indicates that plant was sited by CERF model. If False, indicates pre-existing facility region_name - Name of region (state) tech_id - Technology ID tech_name - Full generation technology name inclusive of cooling type (if applicable) and additional characteristics tech_simple - Simplified generation technology type unit_size_mw - Power plant unit size (MW) xcoord - X coordinate in the default CRS (meters) ycoord - Y coordinate in the default CRS (meters) index - Index position in the flattend 2D array buffer_in_km - Exclusion buffer around site (km) sited_year - Year of siting retirement_year - Year of retirement lmp_zone - Locational marginal price (LMP) zone ID locational_marginal_price_usd_per_mwh - Locational marginal price ($/MWh) generation_mwh_per_year - Generation output (MWh/yr) operating_cost_usd_per_year - Cost of plant operations ($/yr) net_operational_value - Net operational value based on LMP and and operating costs ($/yr) interconnection_cost - Cost of interconnection for transmission & gas pipeline (if applicable) net_locational_cost -- Difference of interconnection cost and operating value ($/yr) capacity_factor_fraction - Capacity factor (fraction) carbon_capture_rate_fraction - Carbon capture rate (fraction) fuel_co2_content_tons_per_btu - Fuel CO2 content (tons/Btu) fuel_price_usd_per_mmbtu - Fuel price ($/MMBtu) fuel_price_esc_rate_fraction - Fuel price escalation rate (fraction) heat_rate_btu_per_kWh - Heat rate (Btu/kWh) lifetime_yrs - Technology lifetime for annuity (years) operational_life_yrs - Operational lifetime for retirement (years) variable_om_usd_per_mwh - Variable operation and maintenance costs of yearly capacity use ($/MWh) variable_om_esc_rate_fraction - Variable operation and maintenance costs escalation rate (fraction) carbon_tax_usd_per_ton - Carbon tax ($/ton) carbon_tax_esc_rate_fraction - Carbon tax escalation rate (fraction) 2. Storage Data This directory contains information on new and pre-existing energy storage facilities operational in each timestep along with various storage operational parameters. The 2015 timestep provides pre-existing energy storage data and corresponds with facilities that are operational leading into the first model simulation timestep. Note that coordinates in the storage files correspond to the interconnection point on the grid (substation location), not individual energy storage locations. Energy storage is added in a cumulative process at each given interconnection point. That is, each individual file provides the total operational storage capacity interconnected to the specified substation for the given timestep, inclusive of previously installed storage at that location and new storage installed in that timestep at that location. Parameters scenario - Name of scenario timestep - Simulation timestep name - Unique storage identifier s_typ - Type of energy storage technology (battery or pumped storage hydro) s_node - Node ID of interconnecting substation xcoord - X coordinate in the default CRS (meters) ycoord - Y coordinate in the default CRS (meters) charge_rate - Maximum charge rate (power capacity) of storage system (MW) discharge_rate - Maximum discharge rate (power capacity) of storage system (MW) duration - Duration of storage system (hours) max_SoC - Allowed maximum state of charge (energy capacity) of storage system (MWh) min_SoC -Allowed minimum state of charge (energy capacity) of storage system (MWh) charge_eff - Efficiency of charge (fraction between 0 and 1) discharge_eff - Efficiency of discharge (fraction between 0 and 1) Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program.

CERF↗

NASA NTRS2006

High-Capacity Communications from Martian Distances Part 4: Assessment of Spacecraft Pointing Accuracy Capabilities Required For Large Ka-Band Reflector Antennas

Improved surface accuracy for deployable reflectors has brought with it the possibility of Ka-band reflector antennas with extents on the order of 1000 wavelengths. Such antennas are being considered for high-rate data delivery from planetary distances. To maintain losses at reasonable levels requires a sufficiently capable Attitude Determination and Control System (ADCS) onboard the spacecraft. This paper provides an assessment of currently available ADCS strategies and performance levels. In addition to other issues, specific factors considered include: (1) use of "beaconless" or open loop tracking versus use of a beacon on the Earth side of the link, and (2) selection of fine pointing strategy (body-fixed/spacecraft pointing, reflector pointing or various forms of electronic beam steering). Capabilities of recent spacecraft are discussed.

Hodges, Richard E.↗

NASA NTRS2006

High-capacity communications from Martian distances part 4 : assessment of spacecraft pointing accuracy capabilities required for large Ka-band reflector antennas

Bassily, Samir (Sam)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Maintaining Microstructure – The Path to Successful Technology Maturation in Fluidized Systems

Scaling circulating fluidized bed risers has been a point of contention for nearly a century. There have been numerous attempts to define various methodologies. These have all fallen short of providing a robust approach, primarily due to a lack of maintaining microstructure dynamics – a key factor in maintain interphase heat and mass transfer. Recent work by the author put forward an approach based up maintaining dynamic similarity at different scales by ensuring that the microstructure remained similar by maintaining statistical and chaotic parameters across the scale. That work relied on a dimensionless regime map in which the x-axis was defined by the ratio of the solids flux to the saturation carrying capacity. This latter property was only good within the range of the data and it became evident that extrapolation beyond the limits of the data could induce unrealistic conditions. Therefore, literature was reviewed to develop a better correlation for the saturation carrying capacity. In doing so, a critical diameter concept was developed and applied to the correlations for both Geldart Group A and B materials. The critical diameter for Geldart Group A and B materials is 0.2 m and 0.3 m, respectively. The paper then gives examples on how to use the scaling approach to maintain dynamic similarity across the scales.<br>

Breault, Ronald↗

DOE OSTI2022

Reducing Uncertainty of Fielded Photovoltaic Performance (Final Technical Report)

Improved analysis and reporting of photovoltaic (PV) field performance increases the certainty of owners and financiers that systems will perform as expected. Advanced module technologies (e.g., PERC, HJT, and bifacial) introduce new degradation mechanisms and performance characteristics. The FY19-21 Reducing Uncertainty project leveraged data from the ever-increasing PV fleet to develop models and understanding of the field performance of existing and new technologies. Specifically, we accomplished: report on field performance and degradation rates for high-efficiency silicon (HJT, PERC, IBC) and more conventional technologies; developed automated analysis techniques to quantify system performance (performance ratio, energy yield) and production shortfalls (soiling, degradation, availability); refined the RdTools software toolkit to bring standard, validated analysis techniques to bear on third-party data; analyzed and reported on large datasets including Treasury data and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory's Utility-Scale dataset to expand the high-quality degradation-rate histogram published previously; worked with industry partners and the DuraMAT data hub to enable private parties to share and aggregate PV production data anonymously, leveraging cloud-based data analysis infrastructure and publishing on US fleet-scale performance comprising over 7GW of operating systems. (https://www.nrel.gov/pv/fleet-performance-data-initiative.html). Through our industry collaborations we have engaged in NDA-covered data transfer with twelve PV fleet owners as of January 2022, with more agreements in negotiation. Our scalable cloud-based time series database contains over 30 billion rows (20TB) of PV time series data, representing over 1700 commercial and utility-scale systems, and over 7.2 GW of DC capacity (Fig 1). Initial field performance results have been distributed in several public reports. Because our fleet composition and data quality methods are continually improving, annual updates to these results are published to our PV Fleet webpage [ https://www.nrel.gov/pv/fleet-performance-data-initiative.html ] and DuraMAT data hub [DOI: 10.21948/1842958]. Another existing dissemination channel used for observed soiling losses is a map we maintain for soiling losses. Additional products developed include a report detailing fleet-wide performance index, availability, startup loss and snow loss factors, a detailed report on the 1603 grant dataset comprising over 100,000 PV systems with failure and performance details and a utility-scale report coauthored with LBNL on 31 GW of system performance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Masking of photovoltaic system performance problems by inverter clipping and other design and operational practices

We describe how performance problems can be “masked,” or not readily evident by several causes: by photovoltaic (PV) system configuration (such as the size of the PV array capacity relative to the size of the inverter and the resultant clipped operating mode); by instrumentation design, installation, and maintenance (such as a misaligned or dirty pyranometer); by contract clauses (when operational availability is transformed to contractual availability, which excludes many factors); and by identified management and operational practices (such as reporting on a portfolio of plants rather than individually). A simple method based on a duration curve is introduced to overcome shortcomings of Performance Ratio based on nameplate capacity and Performance Index based on hourly simulation when quantifying masking effects, and inverter clipping and pyranometer soiling are presented as two examples of the new method. With a better understanding of the non-transparency of masking issues, stakeholders can better interpret performance data and deliver improved AC and DC plant conditions through PV system operation and maintenance (O&M) for improved performance, reduced O&M costs, and a more consistently delivered, and reduced, levelized cost of energy (LCOE).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Chitosan-Based Scaffolds for the Treatment of Myocardial Infarction: A Systematic Review

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD), such as myocardial infarction (MI), constitute one of the world’s leading causes of annual deaths. This cardiomyopathy generates a tissue scar with poor anatomical properties and cell necrosis that can lead to heart failure. Necrotic tissue repair is required through pharmaceutical or surgical treatments to avoid such loss, which has associated adverse collateral effects. However, to recover the infarcted myocardial tissue, biopolymer-based scaffolds are used as safer alternative treatments with fewer side effects due to their biocompatibility, chemical adaptability and biodegradability. For this reason, a systematic review of the literature from the last five years on the production and application of chitosan scaffolds for the reconstructive engineering of myocardial tissue was carried out. Seventy-five records were included for review using the “preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses” data collection strategy. It was observed that the chitosan scaffolds have a remarkable capacity for restoring the essential functions of the heart through the mimicry of its physiological environment and with a controlled porosity that allows for the exchange of nutrients, the improvement of the electrical conductivity and the stimulation of cell differentiation of the stem cells. In addition, the chitosan scaffolds can significantly improve angiogenesis in the infarcted tissue by stimulating the production of the glycoprotein receptors of the vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) family. Therefore, the possible mechanisms of action of the chitosan scaffolds on cardiomyocytes and stem cells were analyzed. For all the advantages observed, it is considered that the treatment of MI with the chitosan scaffolds is promising, showing multiple advantages within the regenerative therapies of CVD.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Cooperative Transmission Expansion Planning Experiment Data and Results

GO WEST is an open-source power grid modeling framework for U.S. Western Interconnection, which allows users to tailor the model depending on their research study and science questions. It covers 28 balancing authorities (BA) and 12 states in U.S. Western Interconnection. GO WEST allows users to select different number of nodes and come up with a simplified network by utilizing 10,000 nodal topology of U.S. Western Interconnection created by Texas A&M University. Users can try and select different number of nodes, mathematical formulations (linear programming vs. mixed-integer linear programming), transmission line limit scaling factors, and hurdle rate scaling factors. GO WEST offers a unit commitment and economic dispatch (UC/ED) module to simulate grid operations on an hourly scale. In this sense, users can calibrate and validate their model versions by comparing model outputs to historical datasets. TEP is an open-source transmission capacity expansion model, built on GO WEST framework. It utilizes linear programming to optimize transmission capacity addition investment on existing lines within GO WEST framework. In this sense, TEP model only increases the thermal capacity of existing transmission lines and does not add new lines to the system, which leaves the topology preserved. TEP minimizes the total cost of the system which comprises the operational cost of satisfying electricity demand (i.e., generation cost), cost of loss of load (i.e., unserved energy), cost of power flow, and cost of new transmission capacity additions (i.e., investment cost). In order to use TEP model, users need to create scenarios with GO WEST framework. In this analysis, outputs from several models are used to create future inputs to GO WEST and TEP models, including GCAM-USA, TELL, CERF and reV. This dataset includes experiment inputs and outputs from three different transmission expansion scenarios (cooperative, intermediate, and individual) for 2019 and 2059. For 2019, a base scenario to illustrate the default (i.e., historical) power grid operations is also included. This study utilizes rcp45hotter_ssp3 scenario from a previous version of GCAM-USA simulations. Sources of the shapefiles in supplementary data are HIFLD Open and U.S. Energy Atlas. Please see the README file for a detailed description of the main and supplementary data.

Capacity Expansion Model↗

NASA NTRS1979

Surface temperature variations as measured by the Heat Capacity Mapping Mission

The AEM-1 satellite, the Heat Capacity Mapping Mission, has acquired high-quality thermal infrared data at times of day especially suited for studying the earth's surface and the exchange of heat and moisture with the atmosphere. Selected imagery illustrates the considerable variability of surface temperature in and around cities, in the dry southwestern United States, in the Appalachian Mountains, and in agricultural areas. Through simplifying assumptions, an analytic experience is derived that relates day/night temperature differences to the near-surface layer (thermal inertia) and to meteorological factors. Analysis of the result suggests that, in arid regions, estimates of relative thermal inertia may be inferred, whereas, in agricultural areas, a hydrologic interpretation is possible.

Price, J. C.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Co-Adsorption of Ammonia and Formaldehyde on Regenerable Carbon Sorbents for the Primary Life Support System (PLSS)

Results are presented on the development of a reversible carbon sorbent for trace-contaminant (TC) removal for use in Extravehicular Activities (EVAs), and more specifically in the Primary Life Support System (PLSS). The current TC-control technology involves the use of a packed bed of acid-impregnated granular charcoal, which is deemed non-regenerable, while the carbon-based sorbent under development in this project can be regenerated by exposure to vacuum at room temperature. Data on concurrent sorption and desorption of ammonia and formaldehyde, which are major TCs of concern, are presented in this paper. A carbon sorbent was fabricated by dry impregnation of a reticulated carbon-foam support with polyvinylidene chloride, followed by carbonization and thermal oxidation in air. Sorbent performance was tested for ammonia and formaldehyde sorption and vacuum regeneration, with and without water present in the gas stream. It was found that humidity in the gas phase enhanced ammonia-sorption capacity by a factor larger than two. Co-adsorption of ammonia and formaldehyde in the presence of water resulted in strong formaldehyde sorption (to the point that it was difficult to saturate the sorbent on the time scales used in this study). In the absence of humidity, adsorption of formaldehyde on the carbon surface was found to impair ammonia sorption in subsequent runs; in the presence of water, however, both ammonia and formaldehyde could be efficiently removed from the gas phase by the sorbent. The efficiency of vacuum regeneration could be enhanced by gentle heating to temperatures below 60 deg.

Wojtowicz, Marek A.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Utility-Scale Solar, 2024 Edition: Empirical Trends in Deployment, Technology, Cost, Performance, PPA Pricing, and Value in the United States [Slides]

Berkeley Lab’s “Utility-Scale Solar, 2024 Edition” presents analysis of empirical plant-level data from the U.S. fleet of ground-mounted photovoltaic (PV), PV+battery, and concentrating solar-thermal power (CSP) plants with capacities exceeding 5 MWAC (PV plants of 5 MWAC or less, including residential rooftop systems, are covered separately in Berkeley Lab’s companion annual report, Tracking the Sun). Key findings from this year’s report include: -18.5 GWAC of new utility-scale PV capacity came online in 2023, bringing cumulative installed capacity to more than 80.2 GWAC across 47 states. Installed costs continued to fall in 2023. Relative to 2022, capacity-weighted averages decreased by 8% to -$\$1.43$/WAC (or $\$1.08$/WDC). Costs, based on a 7.1 GWAC sample of 76 plants completed in 2023, have fallen by 75% (averaging 10% annually) since 2010. Plant-level capacity factors vary widely, from 6% to 36% (on an AC basis), with a sample median of 24%. -Levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of new 2023 projects increased slightly to $\$46$/MWh prior to the application of tax credits but continued to fall to $\$31$/MWh when accounting for federal incentives. PPA prices have largely followed the decline in solar’s LCOE over time, but newly signed longer-term PPA prices have increased since 2021, to an average of $\$35$/MWh (levelized, in 2023 dollars). -Solar’s average energy and capacity value (i.e., ability to offset costs of other power generation sources) across the U.S. was $\$45$/MWh in 2023. Solar’s average market value was lowest in CAISO ($\$27$/MWh), the market with the greatest solar generation share, and highest in ERCOT ($\$67$/MWh). -Newer solar projects had greater market value in 2023 than their generation costs, yielding $\$1.1$ billion in benefits. Projects built in 2022 delivered on average $\$15$/MWh more market value than their costs in 2023. -Solar’s combined value from wholesale electricity markets, public health and climate damage reduction were greater than generation costs and incentives, yielding $\$13.7$ billion in net benefits in 2023. We estimate U.S. health benefits of $\$24$/MWh and reduced global climate damages of $\$101$/MWh. -Adding battery storage is one way to increase the value of solar. Deployment of 52 new PV+battery hybrid plants set a record with 5.3 GW installed in 2023. Our public data file tracks metadata and PPA prices from more than 100 PV+battery hybrid projects that are already online or that have secured offtake arrangements. -Looking ahead, a massive pipeline of at least 1,085 GW of solar capacity dominates the nation’s interconnection queues at the end of 2023. Nearly 571 GW, or 53%, of that total was paired with a battery – in CAISO it was a staggering 98%. Historically only 10% of the requested solar capacity is built. -For more information, and to explore related interactive data visualizations, go to utilityscalesolar.lbl.gov.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Drivers of Future Physical Water Scarcity and Its Economic Impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean

Future water scarcity is a global concern with significant impacts on the energy, water, and land (EWL) sectors. Countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are significant producers of agricultural goods consumed around the world, so disruptions resulting from land and water scarcity in LAC are a source of global supply chain risk. Understanding where water scarcity in LAC could occur and what could drive that scarcity to emerge is critical for strategic resource management and planning, both regionally and globally. Assessing future water scarcity impacts in LAC is challenging given the multisector dynamic interactions among the EWL sectors and the multiple uncertainties acting across different spatial scales. We use scenario discovery to explore the drivers of future water scarcity, considering assumptions related to climate, socioeconomics, and the EWL sectors. Understanding what factors drive uncertainty across outcomes can help stakeholders in targeting long-term solutions and future data collection efforts. To illuminate these dynamics, we use a database consisting of a large ensemble of scenarios representing diverse worlds simulated using the Global Change Analysis Model. We quantify future water scarcity and its economic impacts across the scenarios using three metrics: (1) physical water scarcity, (2) water price, and (3) crop profit. We find that physical water scarcity and water price are driven primarily by reservoir storage capacity assumptions, highlighting the importance of strategic water infrastructure development in maintaining future water availability and accessibility. Crop profit is driven by a combination of water supply and demand assumptions, which emphasizes the complex nature of EWL multisector dynamics. While most of LAC is poised to have abundant land and water resources available for development, water basins in Mexico and along the Pacific coast of South America experience high levels of severity and uncertainty across the future scenarios for at least one of the metrics. We find that the drivers of extreme scarcity vary spatially and across the metrics, further highlighting the heterogeneity of the region and the importance of considering multiple metrics to assess water scarcity vulnerability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1972

Quantifying parameters influencing the spacing of geostationary satellites.

Parameters affecting satellite spacing must be investigated to fully exploit the limited capacity of the geostationary orbit. The usefulness of laboratory experiments, analytic methods, and space environment experiments in quantifying these factors is discussed. It is concluded that space environment experiments are required to evaluate the effects of operationally related parameters including antenna gain patterns, polarization, and antenna instabilities. A unique method of measuring the time-variant effects of the earth station antenna characteristics on satellite spacing is described as a possible space environment experiment. The proposed experiment uses a single satellite to obtain the required data.

Henry, V. F.↗

NASA NTRS2003

'Heat from Above' Heat Capacity Measurements in Liquid He-4

We have made heat capacity measurements of superfluid He-4 at temperatures very close to the lambda point, T(sub lambda) , in a constant heat flux, Q, when the helium sample is heated from above. In this configuration the helium enters a self-organized (SOC) heat transport state at a temperature T(sub SOC)(Q), which for Q greater than or = 100 nW/sq cm lies below T(sub lambda). At low Q we observe little or no deviation from the bulk Q = 0 heat capacity up to T(sub SOC)(Q); beyond this temperature the heat capacity appears to be sharply depressed, deviating dramatically from its bulk behaviour. This marks the formation and propagation of a SOC/superfluid two phase state, which we confirm with a simple model. The excellent agreement between data and model serves as an independent confirmation of the existence of the SOC state. As Q is increased (up to 6 micron W/sq cm) we observe a Q dependant depression in the heat capacity that occurs just below T(sub SOC)(Q), when the entire sample is still superfluid. This is due to the emergence of a large thermal resistance in the sample, which we have measured and used to model the observed heat capacity depression. Our measurements of the superfluid thermal resistivity are a factor of ten larger than previous measurements by Baddar et al.

Lee, R. A. M.↗