Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “constrained estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

255 records · Page 13
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

SILICON CARBIDE THERMOMETRY USING RAMAN SPECTROSCOPY ON IRRADIATED TRISO PARTICLES

Silicon carbide (SiC) passive thermometry has emerged as a promising post-irradiation examination (PIE) technique for estimating irradiation temperature near the end of irradiation. While dilatometry techniques have been traditionally used to analyze prismatic samples after irradiation, Raman spectroscopy has recently been shown to provide comparable results by analyzing Raman-active phonon modes. In this work, Raman spectroscopy has been applied to the SiC layer of cross-sectioned irradiation tristructural isotropic (TRISO) particles from the AGR-5/6/7 experiment to evaluate the feasibility of particle-scale passive thermometry. Two-dimensional Raman mapping was used to measure the position of the SiC longitudinal optical (LO) phonon, which was then converted to an apparent irradiation temperature using a previously established empirical correlation. Particles from AGR-5/6/7 Compacts 2-2-1 and 5-1-3 were selected as their calculated time-averaged, volume-averaged (TAVA) temperatures (828°C and 706°C, respectively) fall within the range of the sensitivity of the experimental approach. The use of SiC thermometry was anticipated to confirm or highlight potential deviations from calculated end-of-life TAVA temperature across compacts. Four particles from Compact 2-2-1 and two particles from Compact 5-1-3 were selected based on 110mAg inventory (either some measurable activity or below the minimum detection limit) which is commonly used as an indicator of in-pile temperature variation of particles within the same compact. Across every particle selected it was determined that the average LO peak position was located around 968 cm-1 to 969 cm-1. Using the previously determined empirical correlation, this corresponds to an irradiation temperature around 950°C to 966°C, which does not align with the reported TAVA temperature values. This discrepancy in apparent irradiation temperatures likely reflects a combination of uncertainties in the calculated particle temperatures and differences in irradiation history between the present specimens and those used to establish the empirical Raman calibration such as neutron flux (damage rate) and SiC microstructure (as fabricated and irradiated).

Vawdrey, Josh [ORNL]↗
DOE OSTI2026

Distributed Mafic Rock Resources for Carbon Mineralization in Arizona

Ex-situ carbon mineralization is a process by which CO2 is reacted with alkaline silicate minerals and rocks to produce stable carbonate materials, which can be used for other industrial processes. Arizona, U.S.A., hosts abundant surficial mafic rocks in three young volcanic fields, Geronimo-San Bernardino, San Francisco, and Springerville, and other distributed locations throughout the state. We created a Mafic Rock Resource Inventory (MRRI) that categorizes geochemical, physical, and textural characteristics of a diverse suite of surficial mafic rock samples and provide a benchmark reaction dataset parameterizing the temperature, pressure, and pH conditions best suited ex-situ mineralization in different rock types. MRRI data is publicly available online via a map-viewer. We establish two reaction condition sets, varied in temperature, pressure, and pH, where crystal-rich and glassy rocks reach maximum reaction extent and different carbonate phases are formed. Systematic ex-situ mineralization experiments on 21 diverse rock types show trends in geochemical, mineralogical, and reactivity behavior and establish maximum effective capture capacity. From this, scoria cones in three Arizona volcanic fields have a ~62 Gt effective CO₂ storage capacity with one of the fields having a ~42 Gt storage capacity in lava flows. Reactivity results have applications to alkaline mafic rock resources exposed globally, including producing additional effective storage capacity estimates and scaled commercialization of mafic rock ex-situ mineralization, should reaction extents be improved through advances in mineralization techniques. MRRI data were used to create a Direct Air Capture to Mineralization (DACM) systems model, technoeconomic analysis, and life-cycle assessment. These documents are presented as three appendices.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impact of Limited Degree of Freedom Drag Coefficients on a Floating Offshore Wind Turbine Simulation

The worldwide effort to design and commission floating offshore wind turbines (FOWT) is motivating the need for reliable numerical models that adequately represent their physical behavior under realistic sea states. However, properly representing the hydrodynamic quadratic damping for FOWT remains uncertain, because of its dependency on the choice of drag coefficients (dimensionless or not). It is hypothesized that the limited degree of freedom (DoF) drag coefficient formulation that uses only translational drag coefficients causes mischaracterization of the rotational DoF drag, leading to underestimation of FOWT global loads, such as tower base fore-aft shear. To address these hydrodynamic modeling uncertainties, different quadratic drag models implemented in the open-source mid-fidelity simulation tool, OpenFAST, were investigated and compared with the experimental data from the Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration, Continued, with Correlation (OC5) project. The tower base fore-aft shear and up-wave mooring line tension were compared under an irregular wave loading condition to demonstrate the effects of the different damping models. Two types of hydrodynamic quadratic drag formulations were considered: (1) member-based dimensionless drag coefficients applied only at the translational DoF (namely limited-DoF drag model) and (2) quadratic drag matrix model (in dimensional form). Based on the results, the former consistently underestimated the 95th percentile peak loads and spectral responses when compared to the OC5 experimental data. In contrast, the drag matrix models reduced errors in estimates of the tower base shear peak load by 7–10% compared to the limited-DoF drag model. The underestimation in the tower base fore-aft shear was thus inferred be related to mischaracterization of the rotational pitch drag and the heave motion/drag by the limited-DoF model.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Preliminary Assessment of the Impact on the V-Band Oxygen Channels From Satellite Communication Uplinks

We calculate the percentage of time that an ATMS-like instrument [1] will be illuminated by the uplink beam of one of the proposed V-band communication system and estimate the damage resulting from such exposure. Using a combination of openly available information and educated guesses about the location and characteristics of the up/down link terminals, we constructed the ground segment of a hypothetical high-speed communication network. The space segment of the network was constructed from the orbital data of the existing Starlink constellation [2] of 6223 communication satellites (comsats) which is used as strawman to represent any other possible constellation of communication satellites. It is shown that without a very delicate balance of frequency allocations (science vs telecommunications), coupled with extremely steep and deep bandpass-defining filters, and strict adherence to the agreed limits (i.e. no out-of-band transmissions) the deployment of the telecommunication network leads to almost-complete loss of some important geophysical data. For the analysis we use the spectral characteristics of the ATMS instrument with the ephemeris for the NOAA-21 satellite [3]. The analysis is conducted for the USA and the simulation covers 8 consecutive days in July 2024. Effective and accurate microwave remote sensing of the atmosphere depends on the availability of interference-free spectrum windows at frequencies which are prescribed by physical processes [e.g. 4]. The family of resonant lines of the oxygen molecule near 60 GHz provides a unique opportunity to sample the vertical distribution of temperature and density from space, and it has been exploited for weather and climate studies from polar-orbiting satellites since 1978 (MSU on TIROS-N [5]). It remains a staple in the payloads operated by Russia, China, USA, Japan, France, India, UK, Ukraine [6] which are built around a common blueprint: a few wide-band (hundreds of MHz) channels around 50 GHz to sample the atmosphere and the surface while several more channels with high spectral resolution (few MHz) sample the individual resonant lines. Accurate retrieval of the environmental parameters depends upon the data provided by both sets of channels, and the their location in frequency space is not arbitrary and cannot be altered at will [7, 8]. The introduction of 5G technology in 2019 has driven telecommunication companies to request more bandwidth to be dedicated to their devices. This additional bandwidth is only available in spectral regions traditionally reserved for environmental and astrophysical research, such as the V-band between 50 and 60 GHz for up/downlink between satellites in low-earth orbits and terminals connected to fiberoptics network for distribution to high-speed local internet services. The power broadcast by the uplink communication leg is many orders of magnitude greater than the natural thermal signal emitted from the Earth scene. If the ground antenna were to perfectly align with the passive instrument’s antenna, the spaceborne receiver would suffer permanent, irreparable damage. While a direct boresight-to-boresight conjunction is extremely unlikely (even with a large constellation of satellites the fraction of the celestial sphere occupied by the satellites remains minuscule) the finite size of the ground station’s antenna beam in the sky suggests that the ATMS will be in the near background (as seen from the ground station) of one of the communication satellites and will be illuminated by either the main lobe or the near sidelobes of the uplink antenna more often than it is desirable. For our analysis we first calculate the position of the ATMS with respect to each of the ground stations at a resolution of 0.2 sec, then calculate the position of each of the comsats which are at least 25 deg above the station’s local horizon; finally we calculate the angle between the line-of-sight of the ATMS and the line-of-sight of the comsat. We assume that the gain pattern of the ground station is circularly symmetric; the angle-off-station-boresight then provides an attenuation of the uplink power which we use to assess the likely effect upon the passive instrument’s operations. We assume that each ground station can communicate with all the comsats in its field of view; this implies that, on average, a ground station can engage with 46 comsats simultaneously. The analysis is repeated for the case when the uplink broadcast within the ATMS passive channels (in-band scenario) and for the case when the uplink is limited to frequencies adjacent to the ATMS channels (out-of-band scenario). The antenna of the ground station is modelled as having a HPBW (Half-Power Beam Width) of 0.16 deg and EIRP (Equivalent Isotropic Radiated Power) of 70 dBW. We account for the geometric dissipation of the signal caused by the satellite orbital altitude, the attenuation induced by atmospheric gasses at 51 GHz and the mismatch between the circular polarization of the ground-based transmitting antenna and the linear polarization of the satellite-borne receiving antenna. The damages on ATMS are estimated from bench-level measurement conducted at the ATMS’ manufacturer facilities [unpublished].

passive microwave↗
DOE OSTI2026

BISON analyses of TRISO fuel performance, its dependence on time-at-temperature, and possible implications for fuel design and qualification

The Advanced Gas Reactor Fuel Development and Qualification (AGR) program has established a substantial technical foundation to support private entry into the U.S. high-temperature gas-cooled reactor market. However, emerging tristructural isotropic (TRISO)-fueled reactor applications include small modular reactors and microreactors with longer fuel residence times, which may expose fuels to higher time-at-temperature (TAT) values than were explored by the AGR program. Increased TAT could affect diffusive and thermomechanical behaviors such as Pd penetration, fission gas release, creep, and fission product transport. In this work, we applied multiscale best-estimate BISON fuel performance modeling to assess these effects within a representative design space based on the AGR-5/6/7 experiment and analyzed trends in predicted particle and compact fuel performance metrics with possible implications for near-term fuel design and qualification. BISON unambiguously predicted that TRISO fuel performance is sensitive to TAT. Increasing TAT was not predicted to increase the magnitude of failure-inducing tangential stresses in particle coating layers. Predictions obtained using a mechanistic model for Pd penetration indicated that penetration depth does not depend strongly on TAT. While these observations suggest that AGR testing provides a conservative upper bound for the steady-state operation of TRISO particles at lower powers and higher residence times, BISON also predicted that the release of poorly retained Ag would increase with TAT. Because these analyses applied models to extrapolate beyond the available experimental data, the authors recommend performing targeted experiments to confirm these predictions. Nevertheless, these predictions may provide reactor developers with enough confidence to make near-term design decisions associated with the potential fuel performance trade-offs of increasing TAT.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS2025

Enhancing Nasa Sounding Rocket Capabilities Through Composite Material Adoption

Sounding rockets are a suborbital research platform employed by NASA for heliophysics, astrophysics, and geospace science investigations, and for technology development. They follow semi-parabolic trajectories and are launched using surplus military, and commercial, solid-propellant rocket motors. NASA sounding rocket payloads are comprised of standard, modular subassemblies, designed to perform specific functions critical to achieving mission success criteria. Since the program’s inception, payload length and mass have trended upwards, limiting the capability of the platform to reach exospheric apogees and decreasing the time above critical altitudes to observe solar and celestial targets. To offset this trend, composite materials may be of use in payload and subsystem design to decrease payload mass. This investigation seeks to understand if there is a practical benefit to introducing composite materials on the NSRP by assessing mission specific impacts to those missions conducted in fiscal year 2024. To accurately estimate the mass of a composites-based payload, a standard subsystem (NIACS) underwent structural reconfiguration. Materials were selected that align with NSRP design, manufacturing, and testing standards. NIACS reconfiguration resulted in a mass reduction of 19.6% which was then applied to the payload system in entirety. Using vehicle performance carpet plots, delta apogee and time above the Kármán line were determined. Performance improvements were then evaluated against that mission’s success criteria to determine if that mission would have benefitted from using composite materials. On average, each mission would have gained 59.8 kilometers apogee and 62.9 seconds above the Kármán line. However, only nine of the seventeen missions would have benefitted from these performance improvements. Two of the missions could have used a lower-impulse launch vehicle to achieve mission success. Upleg stability met programmatic criteria; downleg instability and dynamic pressure improved, showing that ballast would not offset the mass reduction of using composite materials. Cost analysis showed that production costs will increase 39%. For the two missions that could have used a lower-impulse launch vehicle, the cost of the launch vehicle would have offset payload production costs. In summary, composite materials are not recommended for universal use on NASA sounding rocket payloads due to unclear programmatic benefits and added cost. However, they are justified for optical astrophysics and heliophysics missions, high-apogee (exosphere) requirements, or when they reduce payload costs versus higher impulse launch vehicles. Reflown, recoverable subsystems should use composites to enhance apogee and observation time.

Robert Henry Burth↗
DOE OSTI2026

Heliostat sizing methodology for concentrating solar thermal industrial process heat projects

This study presents a method to obtain a heliostat size that minimizes the levelized cost of heat (LCOH) of a heliostat-based concentrating solar thermal system for applications of solar heating for industrial processes at operating temperatures from 565 to 1550°C. The method extends prior work by embedding a routine for system design that obtains near-optimal subsystem sizes, increasing the fidelity of drive cost functions, and adding an optical performance model to supplement the previously developed cost models, which we update to reflect current pricing trends. An illustrative business case is developed for Daggett, California, targeting specified annual thermal energy outputs of 50 to 400 GWh th . Optical performance is modeled using verified estimates from the literature. A surrogate heliostat cost model, derived from commercial heliostat designs and scaled for production volume, installation, and operations and maintenance costs, is used to develop cost functions. Results show that heliostat size strongly affects the LCOH, producing a characteristic U-shaped trend with a robust near-optimal window of 7-20 m 2 ; the heliostat size producing the lowest project cost in our study grows slightly as the project size increases, and is reduced as the operating temperature increases. The findings in this study are consistent with the general trend of smaller heliostats being deployed at existing projects for high-temperature industrial process heat and reflect the significant reduction in power electronics and other per-heliostat costs. The methodology we propose is general and can be tailored to revised cost curves as the technology continues to evolve.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

High Pressure X-ray Diffraction and Equation of State of Hydrazine

Synchrotron X-ray diffraction has been used to investigate the structure and equation of state (EOS) of hydrazine (N 2 H 4 ) up to 54.3 GPa at 298 K. The diffraction patterns could be fit to a monoclinic unit-cell structure and put strong constraints on previously reported phase transitions documented by vibrational spectroscopy over this pressure range. Pressure–volume ( P–V ) data were fit using a Vinet EOS, yielding parameters: V 0 = 45.2 Å 3 /molecule (fixed), K 0 = 11.8(7) GPa, and K 0 ′ = 6.5(2). Previously measured high-pressure vibrational frequency shifts were used to estimate the vibrational free energy and model P–V–T isotherms from 0 to 1200 K. The results of the P–V–T isotherms are compared to existing shock Hugoniot data on hydrazine and 298 K isotherms for assemblages of possible decomposition products. This comparison suggests dissociation at high density under shock loading. Good correspondence was found between the static lattice EOS as calculated by the model and the previously reported EOS as calculated by density functional theory. Finally, these results resolve existing uncertainties about the EOS and crystal symmetry of hydrazine at high pressure and provide valuable baseline information on this important energetic material.

diffraction↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Phosphate Textural Diversity in CI Chondrites and C-Type Asteroids

Introduction: Apatite, Ca 5 (PO 4 ) 3 (CL/F/OH-), is a ubiquitous phosphate found throughout the solar system, including the most primitive solids, CI-chondrites [1,2] and related samples of carbonaceous asteroids Ryugu [3] and Bennu [4], returned by JAXA’s Hayabusa2 and NASA’s OSIRIS-REx missions, respectively. Apatite in these primitive solids is found as individual grains or mineral clusters and has been inferred to form from the hydrothermal sequence during cooling of their respective parent body or bodies. To better understand the formation history and reworking of these early phosphates we have undertaken a highly coordinated study of phosphate microstructures, geochemistry and U/Pb geochronology from a suite of CI meteorites and carbonaceous asteroid samples. These data have identified novel phosphate microstructures and complex relationships across a suite of apatite grains from the early solar system, indicating multiple episodes of growth and modification on the CI parent body(ies). Methods: Samples of CI chondrites, Alais, Ivuna, Orgueil, Oued Chebeika 002, Yamato (Y) 82162, Y980115, Y980134, and two chips of Hayabusa2 Ryugu particles (A0262 and C0263) have been acquired for analysis. The bulk texture of the samples were first scanned by X-ray Computed Tomography (XCT) using the Nikon XT H 320 within the XFACT facility at NASA JSC or the Xradia 620 Versa at the UTCT facility. Based on the identification of petrofabrics or features of interest from the XCT data, samples were chipped, oriented, potted in epoxy and thick sections were prepared. After anhydrously polishing the samples with silicon carbide and dry diamond powder down to 1 µm, the samples were ion polished using a Hitachi ArBlade. Energy dispersive Xray spectrometry (EDS) maps were collected to ID phosphates of interest using a JEOL 7900F SEM. The internal microstructures of identified phosphates were then mapped by electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) using the JEOL 7900F. Based on the EDS and EBSD data, domains of interest were targeted for quantitative chemical analyses using a JEOL 8530 EPMA. Subsequently, in situ U-Pb and 207 Pb/ 206 Pb ages will be collected using a Cameca ims1290 secondary ion mass spectrometer at UCLA across a range of microstructures. Results: Apatite grains are ubiquitous throughout the CI chondrites and carbonaceous asteroid materials, found as individual grains, disseminated clusters or grain aggregates. Apatite grains are associated with serpentine, magnet-ite, and/or carbonate. Of particular interest, we have identified individual and aggregate polycrystalline grains ex-hibiting an internal ‘honeycomb’ texture (Fig. 1). Some of these grains appear overprinted by subsequent alteration while others remain unaltered. Apatite halogen sites are dominated by the missing component, assumed to be OH, and F, comparable to published values from Bennu, Ryugu and CM-chondrites [3-5]. However, the Yamato CI-like meteorites show a broader range of Cl values, and one grain from Alais is dominated by CL. Summary: Apatite growth features indicate a protracted and complex growth history, consistent with precipitation from an evolving fluid system. The ‘honeycomb’ texture identified in some CI meteorites is, to the best of our knowledge, the first report of such a microstructure in meteoritic phosphate. The microtextures and zoning will guide subsequent age analyses, to better constrain the formation and reworking of phosphate in CI(-like) materials. Acknowledgments: We thank the National Institute of Polar Research, Japan for samples of Y82162, 980115 and 980134 meteorites, ASU’s Buseck Center for Meteorite Studies for samples of Ivuna and Alais meteorites, and JAXA curation for chips of Ryugu material. This work was funded by NASA ROSES LARS grant 24-LARS24-0014. References: [1] Morlok et al., 2016, GCA 70:5371-5394. [2] Alfin g et al., 2019, Geochemistry 79:125532. [3] Nakamura et al. (2022) Science 379:1-15. [4] Seifert et al. (2026) MAPS 61:504-521. [5] Piralla et al. (2021) MAPS 56:809-828.

CI chondrites↗
DOE OSTI2026

Weibel-mediated filamentary structures observed in the ICF context

Here, in light of novel and past experimental results, we demonstrate how Weibel-mediated filamentary structures can develop in the expanding plasma plume of a laser-irradiated foil. The transverse ballistic cooling that occurs during the quasi-spherical plasma expansion naturally drives an electron pressure anisotropy, resulting in the growth of electron current filaments. This effect competes with electron–ion Coulomb collisions, which tend to isotropize the electron distribution function. Based on theoretical and particle-in-cell modeling, we provide estimates of the dominant wavelength and amplitude of the self-generated magnetic fluctuations, which are found to explain experimental data obtained at the OMEGA and Laser Megajoule facilities.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Assessing the Impact of a Forest Canopy on Near-Surface Wind Statistics

Representing the forest canopy in atmospheric numerical models should improve simulated winds within and above the canopy up to a few hundred meters above the ground. Here, in this study, we implement a forest canopy parameterization into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model in a large-eddy simulation (LES) mode by applying drag forces across multiple layers within the canopy height. We use unique observations from the Lidar Experiments for Assessing Flow over Forests (LEAFF) field campaign at the Wind River Experimental Forest (WREF) in the U.S. Pacific Northwest to evaluate model performance. In a 2-day case study, the canopy parameterization improved wind predictions both within and above the canopy, particularly during the daytime and at finer grid resolution. Without it, winds were frequently overpredicted above the canopy. Similarly, derived quantities such as the wind shear index also yielded estimates closer to observations with the canopy parameterization implemented. These findings suggest that representing the canopy using drag forces alone can improve simulated mean winds up to 200 m above the surface. Furthermore, second-order statistical moments of wind were more sensitive to canopy density than first-order moments, especially during the daytime. This increased sensitivity and the improved daytime performance in wind speed—evidenced by the lowest bias from observations (3% compared to 20% over diurnal cycle)—imply that winds above the canopy layer are strongly influenced by how well turbulence above the canopy is modeled. The results of this study can serve as a foundation for parameterizing forest canopy effects in coarser weather forecast models.

Energy - Wind↗
DOE OSTI2026

Deep Learning and Photogrammetric Reconstruction for Automated Crack Detection and Dimensional Measurement in Mining Operations

Surface crack detection and dimensional measurement at active mining sites present significant safety and operational challenges. Manual inspection methods are labor-intensive, spatially incomplete, and expose personnel to hazardous environments, while existing automated approaches have been developed primarily for concrete civil infrastructure and have not been validated on the complex, variable surfaces characteristic of mining environments. This dissertation presents an automated pipeline that integrates deep learning semantic segmentation with Structure-from-Motion photogrammetry to detect surface cracks and measure their aperture, length, and vertical displacement from standard RGB imagery acquired during routine Uncrewed Aerial Vehicle (UAV) survey operations, without requiring additional sensor hardware or manual measurement. The pipeline combines a U-Net architecture with an EfficientNet-B0 encoder, pretrained on the SDNET2018 concrete crack dataset and fine-tuned on a mining-specific dataset spanning laboratory concrete specimens, coal refuse impoundment embankments, and post-blast limestone quarry benches. Photogrammetric reconstruction is performed using COLMAP Structure-from-Motion and Multi-View Stereo, with crack segmentation masks projected into the reconstructed point cloud to enable three-dimensional vertical displacement measurement through local plane fitting and bimodal surface detection. The pipeline was validated across 36 controlled laboratory specimens at three imaging distances and four vertical displacement levels, achieving aperture measurement RMSE of 0.047 cm and R² of 0.954, and vertical displacement RMSE of 0.140 cm and R² of 0.966, against independent caliper measurements. Field application at a coal refuse impoundment in southwestern Pennsylvania detected 71 crack components across the embankment crest, with a dominant longitudinal crack exhibiting aperture values reaching 28 cm and a 95th percentile vertical displacement of 35.53 cm, consistent in magnitude and spatial distribution with simultaneously acquired LiDAR-derived estimates. Application across four post-blast limestone quarry bench datasets in California successfully characterized blast-induced fracture networks at ground sampling distances ranging from 0.59 to 1.23 cm/pixel, with detected crack geometries physically consistent with observable surface conditions at each site. The results demonstrate that deep learning-based crack detection and photogrammetric measurement can be integrated into routine UAV inspection workflows at mining sites, providing repeatable, scalable, and quantitative crack characterization across surface types, crack scales, and displacement magnitudes not previously addressed in the literature. The pipeline requires no dedicated surveying equipment beyond the UAV platforms already deployed at mine sites for survey and monitoring purposes, supporting practical adoption within existing operational workflows.

Crack detection, Dimensional Measurement↗
DOE OSTI2026

Linking Community‐Climate Disequilibrium to Ecosystem Function

Turnover in species composition often lags behind the pace of climate change, resulting in mismatches between climate and communities. However, the impact of these community‐climate disequilibria on ecosystem functions is rarely considered, and current methods for measuring disequilibria assume that species ranges were, until recently, in equilibrium with climate. Here, in this work, we develop a simple theoretical model to address both of these problems by linking community‐climate disequilibrium with ecosystem functioning. We show how disequilibrium can impair functioning in the near‐term even when climate change is expected to enhance functioning in the long‐term. Responses are most likely to change over time in communities where turnover is slow, the impact of disequilibrium counteracts the direct effects of climate on ecosystem function, and pre‐existing disequilibrium is large. These findings emphasise the importance of precise and unbiased estimates of community‐climate disequilibria for improving ecological forecasts. By fitting our model to time series of both climate and ecosystem function from a metacommunity simulation, we show the potential for community‐climate disequilibrium to be inferred without direct knowledge about species' distributions or climatic tolerances. We end by outlining a research agenda to apply dynamic disequilibrium concepts and test novel hypotheses across diverse ecosystems.

climate change↗
DOE OSTI2026

Combined dark matter search towards dwarf spheroidal galaxies with Fermi -LAT, HAWC, H.E.S.S., MAGIC, and VERITAS

Dwarf spheroidal galaxies (dSphs) are excellent targets for indirect dark matter (DM) searches using gamma-ray telescopes because they are thought to have high DM content and a low astrophysical background. The sensitivity of these searches is improved by combining the observations of dSphs made by different gamma-ray telescopes. We present the results of a combined search by the most sensitive currently operating gamma-ray telescopes, namely: the satellite-borne Fermi -LAT telescope; the ground-based imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescope arrays H.E.S.S., MAGIC, and VERITAS; and the HAWC water Cherenkov detector. Individual datasets were analyzed using a common statistical approach. Results were subsequently combined via a global joint likelihood analysis. We obtain constraints on the velocity-weighted cross section 〈σv〉 for DM self-annihilation as a function of the DM particle mass. This five-instrument combination allows the derivation of up to 2-3 times more constraining upper limits on 〈σv〉 than the individual results over a wide mass range spanning from 5 GeV to 100 TeV. Depending on the DM content modeling, the 95% confidence level observed limits reach 1.5×10 -24 cm 3 s -1 and 3.2×10 -25 cm 3 s -1 , respectively, in the τ + τ - annihilation channel for a DM mass of 2 TeV.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Thermal Disorder‐Induced Strain and Carrier Localization Activate Reverse Halide Segregation

The reversal of halide ions is studied under various conditions. However, the underlying mechanism of heat-induced reversal remains unclear. This work finds that dynamic disorder-induced localization of self-trapped polarons and thermal disorder-induced strain (TDIS) can be co-acting drivers of reverse segregation. Localization of polarons results in an order of magnitude decrease in excess carrier density (polaron population), causing a reduced impact of the light-induced strain (LIS – responsible for segregation) on the perovskite framework. Meanwhile, exposing the lattice to TDIS exceeding the LIS can eliminate the photoexcitation-induced strain gradient, as thermal fluctuations of the lattice can mask the LIS strain. Under continuous 0.1 W cm -2 illumination (upon segregation), the strain disorder is estimated to be 0.14%, while at 80 °C under dark conditions, the strain is 0.23%. However, in situ heating of the segregated film to 80 °C under continuous illumination (upon reversal) increases the total strain disorder to 0.25%, where TDIS is likely to have a dominant contribution. Therefore, the contribution of entropy to the system's free energy is likely to dominate, respectively. Various temperature-dependent in situ measurements and simulations further support the results. These findings highlight the importance of strain homogenization for designing stable perovskites under real-world operating conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2025

Airports as Energy Nodes Activity Summary

Advanced aircraft concepts that use non-traditional aviation energy storage methods such as batteries or cryogenic hydrogen are in development and expected to enter regular service at airports worldwide within the next decade. The energy needs for these aircraft may quickly overwhelm the existing energy infrastructure at airports, particularly at smaller and more remote facilities. Without energy upgrades, these airports will not be able to host these advanced vehicles, but without the advanced vehicle traffic, these airports will not have the rationale or funding to build up their energy infrastructure. The Airports as Energy Nodes (ÆNodes) activity, a collaboration between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), was executed to understand and model the energy needs that advanced aircraft concepts may levy on these smaller airports, determine cost-effective approaches to enhance the airport energy infrastructure, and demonstrate the enhanced resilience of these energy infrastructure upgrades to the airport and surrounding community via “digital twin” simulation at relevant energy and dynamic time scales. The ÆNodes team also investigated future reference aircraft designs and materials to enable cryogenic hydrogen storage for aircraft. The ÆNodes team conducted analysis at two U.S. airport partner sites — Winchester Regional Airport in Winchester, Virginia, and Tweed/New Haven Airport in New Haven, Connecticut. The goal of this partnership was to develop data and reference infrastructure designs that could accommodate advanced aircraft in the future at these airports while also enhancing the resiliency of the energy supply to the surrounding airport community, which could be used to capture funding to enable the infrastructure upgrades. Over the course of the study, a method was developed to estimate air traffic requiring advanced energy services over the course of a year using a mix of historical data and companion studies on advanced aircraft transportation networks. The study has concluded at NASA but continues at NREL, who will develop a final report discussing the energy infrastructure upgrades and digital twin results. Preliminary results indicate that unrestricted adoption of advanced battery-electric aircraft may double traffic at these airports and increase peak daily power usage by an order of magnitude, while increase electricity energy needs by a factor of two to four. The infrastructure upgrades necessary to accommodate these increased energy needs could be used to provide enhanced energy services to the airport community to offset the cost and increase the utility of the upgrades, which will be described in the NREL final report.

Airports↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Enabling Interoperability in Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT): Integrating Observations, Models, and AI for Actionable Insights Through NASA'S Intelligent Systems Technology Program

NASA’s Intelligent Systems Technology Program (IST) is driving a paradigm shift in Earth science through the development of Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT). These integrated information systems create a dynamic "digital replica" of the Earth by harmonizing continuous, multi-source observations with high-fidelity models and state-of-the-art artificial intelligence (AI) that enable “What now?”, “What next?”, and “What if?” scenario building. These scenarios are reflected in NASA IST’s series of ESDTs, from the Coastal Zone Digital Twin that integrates complex data on the current state of the Chesapeake Bay to the Terrestrial Environmental Rapid-Replication and Assimilation Hydrometeorological (TerraHydro) AI-based ESDT that forecasts water movement across Earth’s surface, to the Agriculture Land Information System (AgLIS) which can be used to assess optimal planting dates and crop yield estimates. By bridging the gap between vast data archives and actionable insights, these projects enable a system-of-systems approach to understanding complex, interacting Earth processes. This poster will highlight recent innovations and future directions from NASA’s ESDT initiatives: Continuous Data Assimilation & Multi-Source Fusion. A core requirement of the ESDT work is the transition from static models to dynamic "living" replicas. This involves creating frameworks for the continual assimilation of near-real-time data from uncoordinated, heterogeneous sources, including satellite observations and airborne assets, and ground-based Internet of Things (IoT) sensors. These systems link design, operational status, and environmental data, ensuring the digital twin accurately reflects the current state of the physical Earth system. High-Fidelity Hybrid Modeling & Computational Acceleration to enable interactive "what-if" explorations, programs are moving beyond traditional, slow physical solvers by developing fast surrogate machine learning models and Deep Generative Models (DGMs). These hybrid approaches use neural networks to emulate complex physics, such as cloud feedback or ocean dynamics, at a fraction of the original computing cost, often leveraging advanced hardware like Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) to achieve the necessary scale. Federated Ecosystems & Interoperable Frameworks rather than building isolated tools, NASA IST is moving toward federated ESDTs and reusable analytic collaborative frameworks. This theme focuses on interoperability standards and common ontologies that allow specialized digital twins to interact and share data. This system-of-systems architecture supports multi-discipline investigations, such as analyzing how upstream watershed changes impact downstream urban flooding or how wildfire emissions affect regional air quality. By leveraging these advancements, ESDTs empower researchers and decision-makers to conduct real-time analysis and run complex hypothetical scenarios, ultimately improving our understanding of Earth’s evolving systems and informing critical real-world applications.

Earth System↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hazard and risk analysis framework for nuclear power plant–based integrated energy systems

Employing integrated energy systems (IESs) with nuclear power plants (NPPs) can improve NPP utilization by leveraging dedicated thermal and electric power delivery, but it may also increase operational safety risks. This paper presents a framework to identify and quantify hazards and risks for such IESs. The framework combines accidentology to review past industrial accidents with failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) to identify potential future incidents. Hydrogen explosion and toxic chemical release hazards are of particular concern. Explosion consequences are quantified using the Bauwens-Dorofeev (Bauwens) and trinitrotoluene equivalent mass (TNT-EM) methods, while chemical release consequences are computed using the Gaussian atmospheric dispersion method. Operational disturbances from direct electrical and thermal integration that may affect NPP safety are modeled using probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). Hazards and risks are then evaluated for regulatory compliance. The framework is applied to IESs comprising pressurized or boiling water reactors supplying three levels of thermal and electrical power to industrial customers. Case studies include high-temperature steam electrolysis hydrogen plants of varying capacities and a synthetic fuel production plant. Sensitivity analysis examines piping component failures in the PRA model as a precursor to cost estimation for thermal extraction line design. Additionally, Fussel-Vessely (FV) and risk increase importance (RII) measures identify risk-informed design improvements for the thermal extraction system. FMEA highlights hazards such as loss of offsite power, prompt loss of electrical load, loss of thermal output, and immediate steam diversion, in addition to hydrogen explosions and toxic chemical releases. Both Bauwens and TNT-EM methods suggest maintaining several hundred meters of separation between the NPP and hydrogen facility to mitigate explosion risks. PRA results show a maximum initiating event frequency increase of 1.15% and an overall risk increase of 0.28%. Importance measure analysis identifies upstream pipe leak isolation components as critical. Evaluating the results against safety regulations, it is concluded that hazards and risks can be managed to comply with regulations through risk-informed thermal and electrical connection designs, component selection, maintenance programs, and safe separation distances between NPPs and integrated industrial facilities.

08 - HYDROGEN↗