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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Author Correction: US oil and gas system emissions from nearly one million aerial site measurements

Correction to: Naturehttps://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-07117-5 Published online 13 March 2024 In the version of the article initially published, several errors were present and have been corrected in the HTML and PDF versions of the article and Supplementary Information. The main results, conclusions, and our interpretations of the data remain unchanged. See the new Supplementary Information Section S15 for a more detailed description of the errors corrected and the resulting effects on the analysis. Data processing and methods corrections Overflight count correction: We previously used pre-computed source coverage data for some Carbon Mapper campaigns that was computed differently than was required for our analysis. We have re-computed Carbon Mapper source coverage based on flightline polygons and source coordinates. Transition point computation, well sites: The updated version now correctly compares the cumulative emissions distribution of simulated well site emissions with that of aerially detected sources (rather than plumes) when computing the transition point. Transition point computation, midstream: Additionally, the transition point calculation has been corrected to exclude aerially detected midstream emissions below the transition point, which was previously leading to double counting of these emissions. This error was not present for upstream (well site) emissions. Calculation errors Unit error: We corrected a specific unit conversion error affecting well site emissions in the Kairos Fort Worth dataset. Across all datasets, we also correct the conversion factor for converting from standard volume to mass for midstream emissions. Sorting error: We correct code that was applying incorrect sorting when computing correction factors to account for partial detection at well sites. Small typographical corrections were made in Fig. 1b and SI Section S4.1. Data processing and methods corrections Overflight count correction: We previously used pre-computed source coverage data for some Carbon Mapper campaigns that was computed differently than was required for our analysis. We have re-computed Carbon Mapper source coverage based on flightline polygons and source coordinates. Transition point computation, well sites: The updated version now correctly compares the cumulative emissions distribution of simulated well site emissions with that of aerially detected sources (rather than plumes) when computing the transition point. Transition point computation, midstream: Additionally, the transition point calculation has been corrected to exclude aerially detected midstream emissions below the transition point, which was previously leading to double counting of these emissions. This error was not present for upstream (well site) emissions. Calculation errors Unit error: We corrected a specific unit conversion error affecting well site emissions in the Kairos Fort Worth dataset. Across all datasets, we also correct the conversion factor for converting from standard volume to mass for midstream emissions. Sorting error: We correct code that was applying incorrect sorting when computing correction factors to account for partial detection at well sites. Small typographical corrections were made in Fig. 1b and SI Section S4.1. The following practices may help researchers conducting similar analyses avoid making similar errors: 1, Clear, accessible documentation explaining the interpretation of all columns in data input tables and all internal variables within the model, 2, Simple cross-check calculations computed before and after unit conversions.

Sherwin, Evan D↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quasiprobabilistic Readout Correction of Midcircuit Measurements for Adaptive Feedback via Measurement Randomized Compiling

Quantum measurements are a fundamental component of quantum computing. However, on present-day quantum computers, measurements can be more error prone than quantum gates and are susceptible to nonunital errors as well as nonlocal correlations due to measurement crosstalk. While readout errors can be mitigated in postprocessing, this is inefficient in the number of qubits due to a combinatorially large number of possible states that need to be characterized. In this work, we show that measurement errors can be tailored into a simple stochastic error model using randomized compiling, enabling the efficient mitigation of readout errors via quasiprobability distributions reconstructed from the measurement of a single preparation state in an exponentially large confusion matrix. We demonstrate the scalability and power of this approach by correcting readout errors without matrix inversion on a large number of different preparation states applied to a register of eight superconducting transmon qubits. Moreover, we show that this method can be extended to midcircuit measurements used for active feedback via quasiprobabilistic error cancellation, and we demonstrate the correction of measurement errors on an ancilla qubit used to detect and actively correct bit-flip errors on an entangled memory qubit. Our approach enables the correction of readout errors on large numbers of qubits and offers a strategy for correcting readout errors in adaptive circuits in which the results of midcircuit measurements are used to perform conditional operations on nonlocal qubits in real time.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Investigating Resilience of Loops in HPC Programs: A Semantic Approach with LLMs

Soft errors have become one of the major concerns for the error resilience of the HPC applications as those errors may cause HPC applications to generate serious outcomes such as silent data corruptions (SDCs). Protecting the applications from soft errors is an essential while challenging task. Among different approaches, obtaining a profound understanding of the resilience proneness of an application is very important to devise efficient error detection and recovery strategies. Given the scale of the HPC applications both in the code size and execution time, there are often cases that the error propagation analysis on such applications would produce a massive volume of unstructured data, which requires a significant amount of efforts, to process and to obtain indicating actions towards error protection. In this paper, we present a control-flow based visual analysis framework to help the users conduct error propagation analysis and identify the critical sections of a program that may have a higher likelihood of leading to erroneous outcomes when affected by the control flow related errors. We also design and implement the scalable visualization framework - ResilienceVis that efficiently and effectively visualizes the affected program states under errors and the propagation traces for an application in a user-friendly manner, and eventually, we combine the analysis and visualization to exhibit the error-proneness of the different sections of applications.

Jiang, Hailong↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimising the processing and storage of visibilities using lossy compression

The next-generation radio astronomy instruments are providing a massive increase in sensitivity and coverage, largely through increasing the number of stations in the array and the frequency span sampled. The two primary problems encountered when processing the resultant avalanche of data are the need for abundant storage and the constraints imposed by I/O, as I/O bandwidths drop significantly on cold storage. An example of this is the data deluge expected from the SKA Telescopes of more than 60 PB per day, all to be stored on the buffer filesystem. While compressing the data is an obvious solution, the impacts on the final data products are hard to predict. In this paper, we chose an error-controlled compressor – MGARD – and applied it to simulated SKA-Mid and real pathfinder visibility data, in noise-free and noise-dominated regimes. As the data have an implicit error level in the system temperature, using an error bound in compression provides a natural metric for compression. MGARD ensures the compression incurred errors adhere to the user-prescribed tolerance. To measure the degradation of images reconstructed using the lossy compressed data, we proposed a list of diagnostic measures, exploring the trade-off between these error bounds and the corresponding compression ratios, as well as the impact on science quality derived from the lossy compressed data products through a series of experiments. We studied the global and local impacts on the output images for continuum and spectral line examples. We found relative error bounds of as much as 10%, which provide compression ratios of about 20, have a limited impact on the continuum imaging as the increased noise is less than the image RMS, whereas a 1% error bound (compression ratio of 8) introduces an increase in noise of about an order of magnitude less than the image RMS. For extremely sensitive observations and for very precious data, we would recommend a 0.1% error bound with compression ratios of about 4. These have noise impacts two orders of magnitude less than the image RMS levels. At these levels, the limits are due to instabilities in the deconvolution methods. We compared the results to the alternative compression tool DYSCO, in both the impacts on the images and in the relative flexibility. MGARD provides better compression for similar error bounds and has a host of potentially powerful additional features.

Techniques: interferometric↗
DOE OSTI2024

Should We Conserve Entropy or Energy when Computing CAPE with Mixed-Phase Precipitation Physics?

Abstract The rapidly increasing resolution of global atmospheric reanalysis and climate model datasets necessitates finding methods for computing convective available potential energy (CAPE) both efficiently and accurately. To this end, this article compares two common methods for computing CAPE which conserve either energy or entropy. Inaccuracies in these computations arise from both physical and numerical errors. For instance, computing CAPE with entropy conserved results in physical errors from nonequilibrium phase transitions but minimizes numerical errors because solutions are analytic at each height. In contrast, computing CAPE with energy conserved avoids these physical errors, but accumulates numerical errors that are grid-resolution-dependent because the numerical integration of a differential equation is required. Analysis of CAPE computed with large databases of soundings from the tropical Amazon and midlatitude storm environments shows that physical errors from the entropy method are typically 1%–3% as large as CAPE, which is comparable to the numerical errors from conserving energy with grid spacing of 25 and 250 m using explicit first-order and second-order integration schemes, respectively. Errors in entropy-based CAPE calculations are also insensitive to vertical grid spacing, in contrast to energy-based calculations whose error strongly scales with the grid spacing. It is shown that entropy-based methods are advantageous when intercomparing datasets with differing vertical resolution because they produce accurate and reasonably fast results that are insensitive to grid resolution, whereas a second-order energy-based method is advantageous when analyzing data with a consistent vertical resolution because of its superior computational efficiency. Significance Statement Convective available potential energy (CAPE) is a measure of instability in the atmosphere that helps forecasters and researchers understand when and where thunderstorms will form. The purpose of this article is to identify the most efficient and accurate methods for computing CAPE. Two methods are considered here, one that relates to the entropy (a measure of thermodynamic disorder) of an air parcel and one that relates to the energy of an air parcel. Results indicate that the entropy method is most accurate and insensitive to the resolution of the data used for the calculation (which can vary considerably), whereas the energy method uses the least computation time.

Peters, John M.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Leveraging Qubit Loss Detection in Fault-Tolerant Quantum Algorithms

Qubit loss errors constitute a dominant source of noise in many quantum hardware systems, particularly in neutral-atom quantum computers. We develop a theoretical framework to effectively detect and correct loss errors in logical algorithms and leverage such loss information in decoding. Considering general quantum error correction codes and logical circuits, we introduce a delayed-erasure decoder for experimentally motivated error models which leverages information from delayed loss detection to accurately correct loss errors, even when the precise moment of the error is unknown. Using this decoder, we identify strategies for detecting and correcting loss errors based on the logical circuit structure. For deep circuits prior to logical measurement, we explore methods to integrate loss detection into syndrome extraction with minimal overhead, identifying optimal strategies depending on the qubit loss fraction in the noise and hardware capabilities. In contrast, we find that many key algorithmic subroutines involve frequent gate teleportation, shortening the circuit depth before logical measurement and naturally replacing qubits with no additional experimental overhead. We simulate this setting using a toy model algorithm for small-angle synthesis and find a significant performance improvement as the loss fraction increases. These results provide a path forward for advancing large-scale fault-tolerant quantum computation in systems with loss error detection.

atoms↗
DOE OSTI2025

Using Eye Tracking to Elucidate the Mechanisms Underlying Stimulation-Enhanced Visual Target Detection

Transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) is a noninvasive form of brain stimulation that involves passing a weak electrical current between electrodes on the scalp to modulate underlying neural tissue. TDCS has been shown to modulate cognition in a variety of domains, including memory, attention, and visual processing. Prior work from our laboratory has shown positive effects of tDCS on learning to detect target objects hidden in complex naturalistic visual scenes and learn rules for categorizing images, though the mechanism for these benefits remains unknown. One possibility is that tDCS optimizes visual search by modulating visual attention or via the reduction in search errors. One method of quantifying visual attention is to use eye tracking to record search patterns to determine if and how visual search is adjusted under verum stimulation conditions. Eye tracking data allows classification of errors into error types, including sampling errors (failing to look in the relevant region), recognition errors (looking at the critical portion of a scene, but failing to recognize it as such as evidenced by visual fixation), and decision-making errors (fixating on the relevant portion of a scene, but making the wrong determination). Our results indicate that the benefit tDCS confers on visual search for targets stems from the reduction in decision-making errors when targets are present (Cohen’s d = 0.86). Also reported is a replication of previous findings showing a tDCS-dependent improvement in learning this task, learning score (Cohen’s d = 0.88); d’ (Cohen’s d = 1.00). This provides support for moving tDCS into the application space by pairing it with analysts who are concerned with the type of search error that is corrected via stimulation.

attention↗
DOE OSTI2025

MS25: Materials Science-Focused Benchmark Data Set for Machine Learning Interatomic Potentials

Here, we present MS25, a benchmark data set for evaluating machine learning interatomic potentials (MLIPs) across diverse materials-relevant systems including MgO surfaces, liquid water, zeolites, a catalytic Pt surface reaction, high-entropy alloys (HEAs), and disordered Zr-oxides. Five MLIP architectures (MACE, NequIP, Allegro, MTP, and Torch-ANI) are trained and tested, focusing not only on traditional metrics (energies, forces, and stresses) but also explicitly validating derived physical observables such as lattice constants, volumes, and reaction barriers. We find that most models reach comparable accuracy on standard error metrics across the simple systems, although equivariant MLIPs offer 1.5–2× improvements over nonequivariant MLIPs in energy and force error for structurally complex or compositionally disordered environments such as HEAs and Zr–O systems. Our analysis highlights that low errors in energy and force predictions do not guarantee reliable observables, emphasizing the necessity of explicit validation. We demonstrate limitations in cross-framework transferability, as models trained on one zeolite framework (CHA) fail to reliably generalize to predictions of structurally distinct frameworks (e.g., MFI). Size-extensive tests show some dependence on system size for MgO, resulting from forced periodicity. The HEA and Zr–O data sets are identified as challenging tests for future benchmarks and MLIP model architecture developments as they show significant differentiation in error between MLIP architectures and are still relatively difficult at 1000 training images. Moving forward, we recommend that benchmarking efforts shift their focus from marginal accuracy improvements in energy and force errors toward identifying and understanding model failure modes, rigorously assessing transferability, and evaluating how their errors affect observable predictions. For researchers looking to choose an MLIP architecture, we suggest selecting equivariant MLIP architectures if the complexity of the system is a challenge. For simple materials problems, auxiliary features such as integration with molecular dynamics engines, trade-offs between computational data set generation cost vs MLIP inference speed, and framework integration may play a more important decision factor than small differences in error metrics that are unlikely to matter for production-level research.

chemical structure↗
DOE OSTI2025

LTAU-FF: Loss Trajectory Analysis for Uncertainty in atomistic Force Fields

Model ensembles are effective tools for estimating prediction uncertainty in deep learning atomistic force fields. However, their widespread adoption is hindered by high computational costs and overconfident error estimates. In this work, we address these challenges by leveraging distributions of per-sample errors obtained during training and employing a distance-based similarity search in the model latent space. Our method, which we call LTAU (Loss Trajectory Analysis for Uncertainty), efficiently estimates the full probability distribution function of errors for any test point using the logged training errors, achieving speeds that are 2–3 orders of magnitudes faster than typical ensemble methods and allowing it to be used for tasks where training or evaluating multiple models would be infeasible. We apply LTAU towards estimating parametric uncertainty in atomistic force fields (LTAU-FF), demonstrating that it produces well-calibrated confidence intervals and predicts errors that correlate strongly with the true errors for data near the training domain. Furthermore, we show that the errors predicted by LTAU-FF can be used in practical applications for detecting out-of-domain data, tuning model performance, and predicting failure during simulations. We believe that LTAU will be a valuable tool for uncertainty quantification in atomistic force fields and is a promising method that should be further explored in other domains of machine learning.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning-Based Process Control for Injection Molding of Recycled Polypropylene

The increased interest in artificial intelligence in manufacturing has driven the adoption of machine learning to optimize processes and improve efficiency. A key challenge in injection molding is the variability of recycled materials, which affects part quality and processing stability. This study presents a novel closed-loop process control approach for injection molding, leveraging machine learning to adaptively predict processing inputs and quality outcomes. The methodology was tested on five blends of recycled polypropylene (rPP), using artificial neural networks (ANNs), linear regression, and polynomial regression to model the relationships between material properties and process parameters. The dataset was split 80/20 into training and testing sets. The ANN model was implemented using TensorFlow and Keras, with six hidden layers of 32 neurons per layer, ReLU activation, and an Adam optimizer. Empirical tuning and early stopping were used to optimize performance and prevent overfitting. Predictions were evaluated based on mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), and percentage error. The results showed that yield stress, ultimate elongation, and part weight were accurately predicted within a 5% error for linear and polynomial regression models and within a 10% error for the ANN. However, modulus predictions were less reliable, with errors of ~11% for ANN and linear regression and ~40% for polynomial regression, reflecting the inherent variability of this property in rPP blends. Predictions of processing inputs had errors ranging from 3% to 25%, depending on the model and response variable. No single modeling approach was consistently superior across all responses, highlighting the complexity of the relationship between material properties, process parameters, and quality metrics. Overall, the work demonstrates that closed-loop process control, powered by machine learning, can effectively predict key quality parameters in injection molding of recycled materials. The proposed approach can improve process stability and material utilization, facilitating increased adoption of sustainable materials.

Krantz, Joshua↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulation Evaluation of a Large-Scale Implementation of Virtual-Phase Link-Based Model Predictive Control

Traffic congestion is a serious problem in the US, and traffic signal control is one of the effective solutions to congestion. Previous research on model predictive control (MPC)-based traffic signal control showed substantial benefits over conventional methods. This study focused on implementing MPC over a large-scale network with complex intersections and the impact of cycle length, network size, and imperfect state estimation on performances. This study implemented a virtual phase link (VPL)-based model predictive control method which used the number of vehicles in each VPL as input state variables and was suitable for National Electrical Manufacturing Association (NEMA) ring-barrier control. To test the impact of network size, the performance of distributed MPC (36 intersections in the network are divided into five subnetworks) was compared with that of MPC over the full network for a set of cycle lengths. To test the impact of imperfect state estimation, we synthetically infused estimation error and developed two scenarios, MPC-error and MPC-error narrow, which had higher and lower estimation errors, respectively. The performance of these MPC methods was compared with that of the existing time-of-day (TOD) method and an offline method that used Webster's method for split and MULTIBAND for cycle length and offset optimization. Trajectory and linkwise signal performance measures were collected from the simulation to evaluate performance. The distributed MPC method with perfect state estimation had the lowest delay and highest energy efficiency of all the methods. The performance of MPC decreased as the prediction inaccuracy increased. MPC-error had 7% and 11% more delay than MPC-error narrow in the morning and evening peaks, respectively. Overall, simulation results suggest that even with imperfect state estimation, MPC methods will outperform offline methods significantly.

large-scale simulation↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Nonintrusive Optical Approach to Characterize Heliostats in Utility-Scale Power Tower Plants: Camera Position Sensitivity Analysis

Optics plays a major role in the effectiveness of concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies. The nonintrusive optical (NIO) approach developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory uses uncrewed aircraft system (UAS)-based imaging to survey heliostats in a commercial-scale power tower CSP plant and characterize their optical errors. The image processing algorithm uses photogrammetry to calculate the camera position for each image frame, and the accuracy of the estimated optical errors is highly sensitive to the calculated camera position accuracy. In this study, we simulate a series of case studies in python to examine the impact of different parameters of the sensitivity of the camera calculation, including the number of facet corners used as control points for the photogrammetric calculation, precision error in the detected pixel locations of the facet corners in the image, and precision error of the canting and mounting positions of the facets of the heliostat. The case studies consider heliostat geometry based on three commercial designs to serve as representative examples of different possible sizes of heliostats that the NIO method could be applied to. The results show that increasing the number of control points can improve accuracy for heliostats with many facets, pixel precision has a significantly larger impact on camera calculation accuracy than facet canting and mounting errors, and the camera distance and focal length must be chosen to ensure adequate pixel accuracy on the heliostat surface depending on the size of heliostat. In conclusion, based on the results, recommendations for the allowable values of each parameter are provided to achieve the required NIO optical error estimation accuracy depending on the size of heliostat.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Getting brighter: Impacts of improved day-ahead solar forecasts in high-solar, high-storage electricity systems

This paper analyzes the impacts of improved day-ahead solar forecasts on costs and dispatch in the solar-rich Southeast U.S. It uses an optimized high-solar, high-storage resource portfolio in which solar generation capacity accounts for 45 % of total installed capacity (34 %–36 % of generation) and energy storage capacity (43 GW) is equivalent to 33 % of peak demand. In a base scenario, improved day-ahead solar forecasts reduce production costs by $\$87$ million per year ($\$0.13$ per MWh load, $2023$$). This level of savings is within the range or lower than earlier studies of solar forecast improvements at lower levels of solar generation (<25 % of total generation). In this study, solar expansion was accompanied by two important sources of flexibility for managing solar forecast error: energy storage and day-ahead solar curtailment. Furthermore, the analysis finds that regional coordination complements day-ahead solar forecast improvements while natural gas commitment flexibility is a substitute for forecast improvements, as the improved solar forecast leads to sub-optimal commitment of thermal units. Day-ahead solar forecast improvements reduce reserves required to manage forecast error by 30 %. Fewer reserves to manage large, infrequent solar forecast errors could be an important benefit of improved solar forecasts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

How Does HF-DFT Achieve Chemical Accuracy for Water Clusters?

Bolstered by recent calculations of exact functional-driven errors (FEs) and density-driven errors (DEs) of semilocal density functionals in the water dimer binding energy , we investigate approximate FEs and DEs in neutral water clusters containing up to 20 monomers, charged water clusters, and alkali- and halide-water clusters. Our proxy for the exact density is r 2 SCAN 50, a 50% global hybrid of exact exchange with r 2 SCAN, which may be less correct than r 2 SCAN for the compact water monomer but importantly more correct for long-range electron transfers in the noncompact water clusters. We show that SCAN makes substantially larger FEs for neutral water clusters than r 2 SCAN, while both make essentially the same DEs. Unlike the case for barrier heights, these FEs are small in a relative sense and become large in an absolute sense only due to an increase in cluster size. SCAN@HF, short for SCAN evaluated on the Hartree–Fock (HF) density, produces a cancellation of errors that makes it chemically accurate for predicting the absolute binding energies of water clusters. Likewise, adding a long-range dispersion correction to r 2 SCAN@HF, as in the composite method HF-r 2 SCAN-DC4, makes its FE more negative than in r 2 SCAN@HF, permitting a near-perfect cancellation of FE and DE. r 2 SCAN by itself (and even more so, r 2 SCAN evaluated on the r 2 SCAN 50 density), is almost perfect for the energy differences between water hexamers, and thus probably also for liquid water away from the boiling point. Thus, the accuracy of composite methods like SCAN@HF and HF-r 2 SCAN-DC4 is not due to the HF density being closer to the exact density, but to a compensation of errors from its greater degree of localization. We also give an argument for the approximate reliability of this unconventional error cancellation for diverse molecular properties. Lastly, we confirm this unconventional error cancellation for the SCAN description of the water trimer via Kohn–Sham inversion of the CCSD(T) density.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantum Time Dynamics Mediated by the Yang–Baxter Equation and Artificial Neural Networks

Quantum computing shows great potential, but errors pose a significant challenge. This study explores new strategies for mitigating quantum errors using artificial neural networks (ANNs) and the Yang–Baxter equation (YBE). Unlike traditional error mitigation methods, which are computationally intensive, we investigate artificial error mitigation. We developed a novel method that combines ANNs for noise mitigation combined with the YBE to generate noisy data. This approach effectively reduces noise in quantum simulations, enhancing the accuracy of the results. The YBE rigorously preserves quantum correlations and symmetries in spin chain simulations in certain classes of integrable lattice models, enabling effective compression of quantum circuits while retaining linear scalability with the number of qubits. This compression facilitates both full and partial implementations, allowing the generation of noisy quantum data on hardware alongside noiseless simulations using classical platforms. By introducing controlled noise through the YBE, we enhance the data set for error mitigation. We train an ANN model on partial data from quantum simulations, demonstrating its effectiveness in mitigating errors in time-evolving quantum states, providing a scalable framework to enhance quantum computation fidelity, particularly in noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) systems. We demonstrate the efficacy of this approach by performing quantum time dynamics simulations using the Heisenberg XY Hamiltonian on real quantum devices.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multiresolution Quantum Chemistry: Nonlinear Response Properties at the Basis Set Limit

We benchmark the accuracy of Dunning correlation-consistent Gaussian basis sets for computing frequencydependent second-order hyperpolarizabilities relevant to second-harmonic generation (SHG), using multiresolution analysis (MRA) as a reference. Basis set errors are analyzed using a unit-sphere representation of the effective hyperpolarizability vector, enabling direct assessment of directional error structure. We introduce a relative RMS total error metric that integrates directional deviations over the unit sphere and complement it with signed projection errors that distinguish over- and underestimation. Unsupervised clustering based on these signed directional metrics reveals four distinct convergence behaviors across a set of 68 molecules. Unitsphere visualizations of representative systems show that basis set errors are often highly anisotropic and localized along specific bond directions, even when global error measures appear small. Doubly augmented basis sets consistently outperform singly augmented ones, and core-polarization functions are required for uniform convergence in second-row systems. Overall, this work demonstrates that directional analysis combined with clustering provides a robust framework for understanding basis set convergence in nonlinear optical response properties.

Basis sets↗
DOE OSTI2025

Navigating the Noise: Bringing Clarity to ML Parameterization Design With O $\boldsymbol{\mathcal{O}}$(100) Ensembles

Abstract Machine‐learning (ML) parameterizations of subgrid processes (here of turbulence, convection, and radiation) may one day replace conventional parameterizations by emulating high‐resolution physics without the cost of explicit simulation. However, uncertainty about the relationship between offline and online performance (i.e., when integrated with a large‐scale general circulation model) hinders their development. Much of this uncertainty stems from limited sampling of the noisy, emergent effects of upstream ML design decisions on downstream online hybrid simulation. Our work rectifies the sampling issue via the construction of a semi‐automated, end‐to‐end pipeline for size ensembles of hybrid simulations, revealing important nuances in how systematic reductions in offline error manifest in changes to online error and online stability. For example, removing dropout and switching from a Mean Squared Error to a Mean Absolute Error loss both reduce offline error, but they have opposite effects on online error and online stability. Other design decisions, like incorporating memory, converting moisture input from specific humidity to relative humidity, using batch normalization, and training on multiple climates do not come with any such compromises. Finally, we show that ensemble sizes of may be necessary to reliably detect causally relevant differences online. By enabling rapid online experimentation at scale, we can empirically settle debates regarding subgrid ML parameterization design that would have otherwise remained unresolved in the noise.

Lin, Jerry [Department of Earth System Sciences Un↗
DOE OSTI2025

Low-overhead transversal fault tolerance for universal quantum computation

Fast, reliable logical operations are essential for realizing useful quantum computers. By redundantly encoding logical qubits into many physical qubits and using syndrome measurements to detect and correct errors, we can achieve low logical error rates. However, for many practical quantum error correction codes such as the surface code, owing to syndrome measurement errors, standard constructions require multiple extraction rounds—of the order of the code distance d—for fault-tolerant computation, particularly considering fault-tolerant state preparation. Here we show that logical operations can be performed fault-tolerantly with only a constant number of extraction rounds for a broad class of quantum error correction codes, including the surface code with magic state inputs and feedforward, to achieve ‘transversal algorithmic fault tolerance’. Through the combination of transversal operations7 and new strategies for correlated decoding, despite only having access to partial syndrome information, we prove that the deviation from the ideal logical measurement distribution can be made exponentially small in the distance, even if the instantaneous quantum state cannot be made close to a logical codeword because of measurement errors. We supplement this proof with circuit-level simulations in a range of relevant settings, demonstrating the fault tolerance and competitive performance of our approach. Furthermore, our work sheds new light on the theory of quantum fault tolerance and has the potential to reduce the space–time cost of practical fault-tolerant quantum computation by over an order of magnitude.

Zhou, Hengyun [QuEra Computing, Boston, MA (United↗