Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “future trends”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 235 records · Page 13

Joint Assimilation of the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder and Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite Limb Profiler Data: Towards a Reanalysis of Stratospheric Ozone for Trend Studies

The future trajectory of the stratospheric ozone recovery will be sensitive to greenhouse gas concentrations through thermal control of chemical loss and via stratospheric circulation changes. The latter in particular is subject to considerable uncertainty meriting continuing monitoring of the evolution of ozone throughout the depth of the stratosphere. Atmospheric reanalyses utilize the data assimilation methodology to obtain comprehensive representations of the state of the atmosphere, including its composition, on multidecadal scales by combining diverse measurements from satellite-borne and conventional data sources. Systematic biases among these various data types pose a challenge for assimilation by introducing spurious discontinuities that affect the utility of reanalyses for studies of long-term variability and trends.In this presentation we will outline an approach, developed at NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO), that allows joint assimilation of stratospheric ozone profiles from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on EOS Aura and the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite Limb Profiler (OMPS-LP) currently flying on the Suomi-NPP satellite with future missions projected into the 2030s. We will demonstrate that a simple offline correction significantly reduces biases between MLS and OMPS-LP ozone data providing a strategy for generating a long-term vertically resolved homogenized representation of stratospheric ozone in future reanalyses. One novel element of our approach compared to previous GMAO reanalysis is the use of a version of the Goddard Earth Observing System model with full stratospheric chemistry. We will show selected comparisons of MLS and OMPS-LP assimilation experiments with independent ozonesonde and satellite data as well as two examples of process-based evaluation focused on the 2016 QBO disruption and Arctic winter ozone loss focusing on the relative performance of the MLS and OMPS-LP analyses.

Wargan, K.↗

Aviation Trends Related to Atmospheric Environment Safety Technologies Project Technical Challenges

Current and future aviation safety trends related to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Atmospheric Environment Safety Technologies Project's three technical challenges (engine icing characterization and simulation capability; airframe icing simulation and engineering tool capability; and atmospheric hazard sensing and mitigation technology capability) were assessed by examining the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) accident database (1989 to 2008), incidents from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) accident/incident database (1989 to 2006), and literature from various industry and government sources. The accident and incident data were examined for events involving fixed-wing airplanes operating under Federal Aviation Regulation (FAR) Parts 121, 135, and 91 for atmospheric conditions related to airframe icing, ice-crystal engine icing, turbulence, clear air turbulence, wake vortex, lightning, and low visibility (fog, low ceiling, clouds, precipitation, and low lighting). Five future aviation safety risk areas associated with the three AEST technical challenges were identified after an exhaustive survey of a variety of sources and include: approach and landing accident reduction, icing/ice detection, loss of control in flight, super density operations, and runway safety.

Reveley, Mary S.↗

NASA trend analysis procedures

This publication is primarily intended for use by NASA personnel engaged in managing or implementing trend analysis programs. 'Trend analysis' refers to the observation of current activity in the context of the past in order to infer the expected level of future activity. NASA trend analysis was divided into 5 categories: problem, performance, supportability, programmatic, and reliability. Problem trend analysis uncovers multiple occurrences of historical hardware or software problems or failures in order to focus future corrective action. Performance trend analysis observes changing levels of real-time or historical flight vehicle performance parameters such as temperatures, pressures, and flow rates as compared to specification or 'safe' limits. Supportability trend analysis assesses the adequacy of the spaceflight logistics system; example indicators are repair-turn-around time and parts stockage levels. Programmatic trend analysis uses quantitative indicators to evaluate the 'health' of NASA programs of all types. Finally, reliability trend analysis attempts to evaluate the growth of system reliability based on a decreasing rate of occurrence of hardware problems over time. Procedures for conducting all five types of trend analysis are provided in this publication, prepared through the joint efforts of the NASA Trend Analysis Working Group.

Source record↗

Impact of flight systems integration on future aircraft design

Integrations trends in aircraft are discussed with an eye to manifestations in future aircraft designs through interdisciplinary technology integration. Current practices use software changes or small hardware fixes to solve problems late in the design process, e.g., low static stability to upgrade fuel efficiency. A total energy control system has been devised to integrate autopilot and autothrottle functions, thereby eliminating hardware, reducing the software, pilot workload, and cost, and improving flight efficiency and performance. Integrated active controls offer reduced weight and larger payloads for transport aircraft. The introduction of vectored thrust may eliminate horizontal and vertical stabilizers, and location of the thrust at the vehicle center of gravity can provide vertical takeoff and landing capabilities. It is suggested that further efforts will open a new discipline, aeroservoelasticity, and tests will become multidisciplinary, involving controls, aerodynamics, propulsion and structures.

Hood, R. V.↗

Human Influence on Tropical Cyclone Intensity

Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical trends in tropical cyclone intensity.We interpret future and recent historical trends by using the theory of potential intensity, which predicts the maximum intensity achievable by a tropical cyclone in a given local environment. Although greenhouse gas-driven warming increases potential intensity, climate model simulations suggest that aerosol cooling has largely canceled that effect over the historical record. Large natural variability complicates analysis of trends, as do poleward shifts in the latitude of maximum intensity. In the absence of strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, future greenhouse gas forcing of potential intensity will increasingly dominate over aerosol forcing, leading to substantially larger increases in tropical cyclone intensities.

Human influence on climate↗

Nickel hydrogen batteries: An overview

This paper on nickel hydrogen batteries is an overview of the various nickel hydrogen battery design options, technical accomplishments, validation test results and trends. There is more than one nickel hydrogen battery design, each having its advantage for specific applications. The major battery designs are individual pressure vessel (IPV), common pressure vessel (CPV), bipolar and low pressure metal hydride. State-of-the-art (SOA) nickel hydrogen batteries are replacing nickel cadmium batteries in almost all geosynchronous orbit (GEO) applications requiring power above 1 kW. However, for the more severe low earth orbit (LEO) applications (greater than 30,000 cycles), the current cycle life of 4000 to 10,000 cycles at 60 percent DOD should be improved. A LeRC innovative advanced design IPV nickel hydrogen cell led to a breakthrough in cycle life enabling LEO applications at deep depths of discharge (DOD). A trend for some future satellites is to increase the power level to greater than 6 kW. Another trend is to decrease the power to less than 1 kW for small low cost satellites. Hence, the challenge is to reduce battery mass,volume, and cost. A key is to develop a light weight nickel electrode and alternate battery designs. A common pressure vessel (CPV) nickel hydrogen battery is emerging as a viable alternative to the IPV design. It has the advantage of reduced mass, volume and manufacturing costs. A 10 Ah CPV battery has successfully provided power on the relatively short lived Clementine Spacecraft. A bipolar nickel hydrogen battery design has been demonstrated (15,000 LEO cycles, 40 percent DOD). The advantage is also a significant reduction in volume, a modest reduction in mass, and like most bipolar designs, features a high pulse power capability. A low pressure aerospace nickel metal hydride battery cell has been developed and is on the market. It is a prismatic design which has the advantage of a significant reduction in volume and a reduction in manufacturing cost.

Smithrick, John J.↗

A review of nickel hydrogen battery technology

This paper on nickel hydrogen batteries is an overview of the various nickel hydrogen battery design options, technical accomplishments, validation test results and trends. There is more than one nickel hydrogen battery design, each having its advantage for specific applications. The major battery designs are individual pressure vessel (IPV), common pressure vessel (CPV), bipolar and low pressure metal hydride. State-of-the-art (SOA) nickel hydrogen batteries are replacing nickel cadmium batteries in almost all geosynchronous orbit (GEO) applications requiring power above 1 kW. However, for the more severe low earth orbit (LEO) applications (greater than 30,000 cycles), the current cycle life of 4000 to 10,000 cycles at 60 percent DOD should be improved. A NASA Lewis Research Center innovative advanced design IPV nickel hydrogen cell led to a breakthrough in cycle life enabling LEO applications at deep depths of discharge (DOD). A trend for some future satellites is to increase the power level to greater than 6 kW. Another trend is to decrease the power to less than 1 kW for small low cost satellites. Hence, the challenge is to reduce battery mass, volume and cost. A key is to develop a light weight nickel electrode and alternate battery designs. A common pressure vessel (CPV) nickel hydrogen battery is emerging as a viable alternative to the IPV design. It has the advantage of reduced mass, volume and manufacturing costs. A 10 Ah CPV battery has successfully provided power on the relatively short lived Clementine Spacecraft. A bipolar nickel hydrogen battery design has been demonstrated (15,000 LEO cycles, 40 percent DOD). The advantage is also a significant reduction in volume, a modest reduction in mass, and like most bipolar designs, features a high pulse power capability. A low pressure aerospace nickel metal hydride battery cell has been developed and is on the market. It is a prismatic design which has the advantage of a significant reduction in volume and a reduction in manufacturing cost.

Smithrick, John J.↗

Nickel-Hydrogen Batteries - An Overview

This article on nickel-hydrogen batteries is an overview of the various nickel-hydrogen battery design options, technical accomplishments, validation test results, and trends. There is more than one nickel-hydrogen battery design, each having its advantage for specific applications. The major battery designs are Individual Pressure Vessel (IPV), Common Pressure Vessel (CPV), bipolar, and low-pressure metal hydride. State-of-the-art nickel-hydrogen batteries are replacing nickel-cadmium batteries in almost all geosynchronous Earth orbit applications requiring power above 1 kW. However, for the more severe Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) applications (greater than 30,000 cycles), the current cycle life of 4000-10,000 cycles at 60 - 80 % DOD should be improved. A NASA Lewis Research Center innovative advanced design IPV nickel-hydrogen cell led to a breakthrough in cycle life enabling LEO applications at deep Depths of Discharge (DOD). A trend for some future satellites is to increase the power level to greater than 6 kW. Another trend is to decrease the power to less than 1 kW for small low-cost satellites. Hence, the challenge is to reduce battery mass, volume, and cost. A key is to develop a lightweight nickel electrode and alternate battery designs. A CPV nickel-hydrogen battery is emerging as a viable alternative to the IPV design. It has the advantage of reduced mass, volume, and manufacturing costs. A 10-A-h CPV battery has successfully provided power on the relatively short-lived Clementine spacecraft. A bipolar nickel -hydrogen battery design has been demonstrated (15,000 LEO cycles, 40 % DOD). The advantage is also a significant reduction in volume, a modest reduction in mass, and like most bipolar designs, features a high-pulse power capability. A low-pressure aerospace nickel-metal-hydride battery cell has been developed and is on the market. It is a prismatic design that has the advantage of a significant reduction in volume and a reduction in manufacturing cost.

Smithrick, John J.↗

Engineering in the 21st century

A description is presented of the nature of the aerospace technology system that might be expected by the 21st century from a reasonable evolution of the current resources and capabilities. An aerospace employment outlook is provided. The years 1977 and 1978 seem to be marking the beginning of a period of stability and moderate growth in the aerospace industry. Aerospace research and development employment increased to 70,000 in 1977 and is now occupying a near-constant 18% share of the total research and development work force. The changing job environment is considered along with the future of aerospace education. It is found that one trend is toward a more interdisciplinary education. Most trend setters in engineering education recognize that the really challenging engineering problems invariably require the judicious exercise of several disciplines for their solution. Some future trends in aerospace technology are discussed. By the year 2000 space technology will have achieved major advances in four areas, including management of information, transportation, space structures, and energy.

Mccarthy, J. F., Jr.↗

Spacecraft technology trends - A view from the past

Future spacecraft will be sent on missions to complete the exploration of the solar system, to return samples from celestial bodies, record the process of creation of stars, galaxies, and the universe itself, to provide a continuous record of earth processes, and to maintain vital space communications. A key ingredient to projecting the future is to comprehend the historic record and to understand the significance of trends. This paper focuses on spacecraft cost and life trends, as well as those of the major subsystems. Throughout the history of the 'space age' there has been significant progress in the performance of spacecraft and their subsystems. However, various aspects of spacecraft performance lag behind what is technically feasible by a considerable margin. In addition, examination of the historical trend implies that future spacecraft will likely continue to be relatively unique in their design features. This is in contrast to the technically realizable future attributes such as large space platforms, modularity, system autonomy and on-orbit repair and servicing.

Hudson, Wayne R.↗

NASA and COTS Electronics: Past Approach and Successes - Future Considerations

NASA has a long history of using commercial grade electronics in space. In this talk, a brief history of NASAâ's trends and approaches to commercial grade electronics focusing on processing and memory systems will be presented. This will include providing summary information on the space hazards to electronics as well as NASA mission trade space. We will also discuss developing recommendations for risk management approaches to Electrical, Electronic and Electromechanical (EEE) parts and reliability in space. The final portion of the talk will discuss emerging aerospace trends and the future for Commercial Off The Shelf (COTS) usage.

LaBel, Kenneth A.↗

How Do UTLS Jet and Tropopause Dynamics Influence Ozone Variability? Investigations Supporting the SPARC OCTAV-UTLS Activity

Understanding changes in UTLS ozone is exceptionally challenging because of large spatial and temporal variability and because of the difficulty of satellite measurements in the UTLS. It is also exceptionally important: for example, to understand climate impacts of radiatively active substances and to understand physical and biological effects of pollution transport and stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE). Multi-decadal global observations of UTLS ozone are now available from numerous satellite platforms, as well as local and regional observations from aircraft, balloons, and lidar. The upper tropospheric (UT) jets and tropopauses are important drivers of composition variability in the UTLS, acting as transport barriers and controlling STE and long-range transport. We report here on investigations of relationships between extratropical UTLS ozone variability and dynamical diagnostics of mixing / transport barriers, Rossby Wave breaking, and stratosphere-troposphere exchange. We will view these relationships in the context of ozone mapped into dynamical coordinates with respect to the UTLS jets and / or the tropopause. This work will help provide direction for analyses within the Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) Observed Composition Trends and Variability in the UTLS (OCTAV-UTLS) activity, which aims to use dynamical coordinate mapping to help detect and attribute observed UTLS composition trends, and to project future data needs to better quantify those trends. The work we report on here will focus on satellite ozone observations (primarily from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder, additionally from ACE-FTS and OSIRIS) and assimilated ozone and dynamical fields (from multiple reanalyses); we will also provide some examples of comparisons with aircraft and balloon observations.

Manney, Gloria L.↗

The Temperature of the Earth in 2020

In spite of the confusion in the public discourse about global warming, there is no doubt that the Earth has been warming for the past century. The chemistry of the Earth's atmosphere is complex, and it is sometimes difficult to claim cause-and-effect with certainty. Nevertheless, the evidence seems clear that CO2 and non-CO2 forcings such as methane and air pollution are causally related to this warming trend. Our dependence on fossil fuels make it difficult to expect that massive reductions in CO2 will be feasible in the near-term, however. In this talk I will consider the evidence for global warming, the extent to which we can extrapolate current trends into the future if no changes in global policy are introduced, and those near-term policies that might be realistically introduced to significantly affect those trends.

Hansen, James↗

Indian Ocean warming as key driver of long-term positive trend of Arctic Oscillation

Arctic oscillation (AO), which is the most dominant atmospheric variability in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) during the boreal winter, significantly affects the weather and climate at mid-to-high latitudes in the NH. Although a climate community has focused on a negative trend of AO in recent decades, the significant positive trend of AO over the last 60 years has not yet been thoroughly discussed. By analyzing reanalysis and Atmospheric Model Inter-comparison Project (AMIP) datasets with novel pacemaker experiments, we found that sea surface temperature warming in the Indian Ocean is conducive to the positive trend of AO from the late 1950s. The momentum flux convergence by stationary waves due to the Indian Ocean warming plays an important role in the positive trend of AO, which is characterized by a poleward shift of zonal-mean zonal winds. In addition, the reduced upward propagating wave activity flux over the North Pacific due to Indian Ocean warming also plays a role to strengthen the polar vortex, subsequently, it contributes to the positive trend of AO. Our results imply that the respective warming trend of tropical ocean basins including Indian Ocean, which is either anthropogenic forcing or natural variability or their combined effect, should be considered to correctly project the future AO’s trend.

Indian Ocean↗

Global temperature monitoring from space

Global and regional temperature variations in the lower troposphere and lower stratosphere are examined for the period 1979-92 from Microwave Sounder Unit (MSU) data obtained by the Television Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS)-N series of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) operational satellites. In the lower troposphere, globally-averaged temperature variations appear to be dominated by tropical El Nino (warm) and La Nina (cool) events and volcanic eruptions. The Pinatubo volcanic eruption in June 1991 appears to have initiated a cooling trend which persisted through the most recent data analyzed (July, 1992), and largely overwhelmed the warming from the 1991-92 El Nino. The cooling has been stronger in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. The temperature trend over the 13.5 year satellite record is small (+0.03 C) compared to the year-to-year variability (0.2-0.4 C), making detection of any global warming signal fruitless to date. However, the future global warming trend, currently predicted to be around 0.3 C/decade, will be much easier to discern should it develop. The lower stratospheric temperature record is dominated by warm episodes from the Pinatubo eruption and the March 1982 eruption of El Chichon volcano.

Spencer, R. W.↗

Emerging Aviation Trends in ATD-2 and Vector for Future Innovation

This briefing discusses the constraints of the Northeast Corridor (NEC), the increasing predictability that can be achieved by leveraging digital assets (e.g., EOBT), and the challenges of a multi-airport scenario and the use of TOS alternative routes. It further describes the potential of near-term digital asset expansion and near real-time predictive analytics to generate innovative solutions.

Capps, Al↗

Coherent Doppler lidars: Current US 9-11 micrometer systems

To gain a proper perspective of the potential of coherent Doppler lidars for global wind sensing sometime in the future, we need to examine where we are, how we got here, and the expectations for future lidar system development. First we give a brief review of lidar developments leading to our present technology. Next we survey present U.S. infrared systems with particular attention to the pulsed systems since they are the ones that will have sufficient range to operate from satellites. Finally we comment on trends and probable future developments. Only unclassified lidars are considered. The considerable DoD support for classified applications certainly enhances future developments in components and subsystems.

Hall, Freeman F., Jr.↗