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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Efficiency and Demand Flexibility in Large Office Buildings: The Potential for Cost Savings and CO 2 Reductions from Lighting and Cooling Measures

This report presents the estimated impact of lighting and cooling efficiency and demand flexibility measures in large office buildings in each state in the contiguous United States. It provides modeled results for three different metrics: bill savings, regional grid operational costs savings, and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions reductions. Lighting efficiency and demand flexibility are estimated to reduce load by up to 80 MWh/yr in a single large office building. These load reductions result in customer bill savings of up to $8,800/yr per building, with the highest savings in southern and midwestern states. Grid operating cost savings are estimated at up to $3,240/yr/building, with greatest benefit in southern and northeastern states. CO 2 emissions reduction potential is highest in the Dakotas, Nebraska, across the Midwest, in West Virginia, and in Mississippi (<48,200 kg/yr/building). Comparatively, cooling measures are found to have less load reduction potential (<28.5 MWh/yr/building), with the greatest potential in southern states including Texas, which ranks top of the list across several of the metrics studied. In numerous states, shifting cooling load to off-peak hours is found to increase costs and CO 2 emissions because precooling results in increased load during high-cost or high-CO 2 emissions periods. In general, focusing on cooling efficiency and load shedding has the potential for more savings. In all cases, the specific rate structure is a significant determinant in actual bill savings, which are up to $4,000/yr/building. To realize the full potential for bill savings through an energy measure, building operators must identify how the measure will change the building load pattern and the interaction of this load change with the applicable rate tariff. To realize CO 2 emissions reductions, industry and state coordination is needed to verify which fuel source is on the margin and then to create incentives for end users to reduce load during high-CO 2 emissions hours. Regular updates to data sets and analyses are critical. Regulators and policymakers are well positioned to facilitate the necessary coordination between the electric industry and building energy managers to develop appropriate price signals and incentives.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Direct Air Reactive Capture and Conversion for Utility-Scale Energy Storage (Final Report)

This final report for FEW0277 summarizes the work performed over the project performance period of October 2021 – March 2025. This project was funded under the “Reactive Capture and Conversion R&D” lab call released in FY2021. The goal of the project was to develop dual-function materials and process for capturing CO 2 from the atmosphere and converting it into CH 4 . The work was organized into four parallel tracks in 1) direct air capture materials synthesis and characterization, 2) catalysts for CO 2 conversion, 3) mechanistic investigations via ab initio simulations, and 4) process modeling, technoeconomic analysis, and lifecycle assessment. The project was split into two budget periods. The first budget period focused on development of amine-based materials, due to their known performance for CO 2 direct air capture and their potential to act synergistically with metal catalysts to enable a low-temperature methanation pathway. The second budget period focused on development of alkali-based materials and a simulated-moving-bed process for high conversion catalytic reduction of captured CO 2 to CH 4 . All project milestones were completed during the project performance period and are summarized in this report. Our work resulted in publication of eight peer-reviewed manuscripts, one patent application, and numerous presentations given at domestic and international conferences and invited academic department seminars.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Constraints on the scalar-field potential in warm inflation

In this work, we quantify the degree of fine-tuning required to achieve an observationally viable period of inflation in the strongly dissipative regime of warm inflation. The “fine-tuning” parameter λ is taken to be the ratio of the change in the height of the potential Δ V to the change in the scalar field (ΔΦ) 4 , i.e., the width of the potential, and therefore measures the requisite degree of flatness in the potential. The best motivated warm inflationary scenarios involve a dissipation rate of the kind Γ ∝ T c with c ≥ 0 , and for all such cases, the bounds on λ are tighter than those for standard cold inflation by at least 3 orders of magnitude. In other words, these models require an even flatter potential than standard inflation. On the other hand for the case of warm inflation with c < 0, we find that in a strongly dissipative regime the bound on λ can significantly weaken with respect to cold inflation. Thus, if a warm inflation model can be constructed in a strongly dissipative, negatively temperature-dependent regime, it accommodates steeper potentials otherwise ruled out in standard inflation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Poly(cyclosilane) Postpolymerization Hydrosilylation

Postpolymerization functionalization is a key strategy in the diversification of polymeric materials for the conferral of tailored properties. Poly(cyclosilane)s are structurally complex polymers with an all-silicon backbone, featuring a periodic array of hydrido (Si–H) side chains that are potentially suitable for postpolymerization functionalization via hydrosilylation. At the same time, classical methods for hydrosilylation employing Pt- or Pd-based catalysts can result in Si–Si bond scission. In this work, we demonstrate borane-catalyzed hydrosilylation reactions between α-olefins and small molecules or three distinct poly(cyclosilane) architectures. We investigate chemoselectivity for end group versus internal Si–H groups and find that 29 Si cross-polarization magic angle spinning can provide insight on site-selectivity in the functionalization of a complex poly(cyclosilane). Furthermore, we show that postpolymerization hydrosilylation, converting oxidatively sensitive Si–H groups to Si–alkyl chains, modulates solubility and physical characteristics, optical properties, pyrolytic reactivity, and air sensitivity.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning prediction of connectivity, biodiversity and resilience in the Coral Triangle

Abstract Even optimistic climate scenarios predict catastrophic consequences for coral reef ecosystems by 2100. Understanding how reef connectivity, biodiversity and resilience are shaped by climate variability would improve chances to establish sustainable management practices. In this regard, ecoregionalization and connectivity are pivotal to designating effective marine protected areas. Here, machine learning algorithms and physical intuition are applied to sea surface temperature anomaly data over a twenty-four-year period to extract ecoregions and assess connectivity and bleaching recovery potential in the Coral Triangle and surrounding oceans. Furthermore, the impacts of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on biodiversity and resilience are quantified. We find that resilience is higher for reefs north of the Equator and that the extraordinary biodiversity of the Coral Triangle is dynamic in time and space, and benefits from ENSO. The large-scale exchange of genetic material is enhanced between the Indian Ocean and the Coral Triangle during La Niña years, and between the Coral Triangle and the central Pacific in neutral conditions. Through machine learning the outstanding biodiversity of the Coral Triangle, its evolution and the increase of species richness are contextualized through geological times, while offering new hope for monitoring its future.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Electric fields near undulating dielectric membranes

Dielectric interfaces are crucial to the behavior of charged membranes, from graphene to synthetic and biological lipid bilayers. Understanding electrolyte behavior near these interfaces remains a challenge, especially in the case of rough dielectric surfaces. A lack of analytical solutions consigns this problem to numerical treatments. Here, we report an analytic method for determining electrostatic potentials near curved dielectric membranes in a two-dimensional periodic “slab” geometry using a periodic summation of Green’s functions. This method is amenable to simulating arbitrary groups of charges near surfaces with two-dimensional deformations. We concentrate on one-dimensional undulations. We show that increasing membrane undulation increases the asymmetry of interfacial charge distributions due to preferential ionic repulsion from troughs. In the limit of thick membranes, we recover results mimicking those for electrolytes near a single interface. Our work demonstrates that rough surfaces generate charge patterns in electrolytes of charged molecules or mixed-valence ions.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deconstructing dynamics of symmetry breaking

The Kibble–Zurek mechanism (KZM) successfully predicts the density of topological defects deposited by the phase transitions, but it is not clear why. Its key conjecture is that, near the critical point of the second-order phase transition, critical slowing down will result in a period when the system is too sluggish to follow the potential that is changing faster than its reaction time. The correlation length at the freeze-out instant $\hat{t}$ when the order parameter catches up with the posttransition broken symmetry configuration is then decisive, determining when the mosaic of broken symmetry domains locks in topological defects. To understand why the KZM works so well, we analyze the Landau–Ginzburg model and show why temporal evolution of the order parameter plays such a key role. In conclusion, the analytical solutions we obtain suggest experimentally accessible observables that can shed light on symmetry-breaking dynamics while testing the conjecture on which the KZM is based.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dose-efficient automatic differentiation for ptychographic reconstruction

Ptychography, as a powerful lensless imaging method, has become a popular member of the coherent diffractive imaging family over decades of development. The ability to utilize low-dose X-rays and/or fast scans offers a big advantage in a ptychographic measurement (for example, when measuring radiation-sensitive samples), but results in low-photon statistics, making the subsequent phase retrieval challenging. Here, we demonstrate a dose-efficient automatic differentiation framework for ptychographic reconstruction (DAP) at low-photon statistics and low overlap ratio. As no reciprocal space constraint is required in this DAP framework, the framework, based on various forward models, shows superior performance under these conditions. It effectively suppresses potential artifacts in the reconstructed images, especially for the inherent periodic artifact in a raster scan. We validate the effectiveness and robustness of this method using both simulated and measured datasets.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2021

Energy Analysis: Ways to Save Energy and Reduce the Emissions in Wastewater Treatment Plants

The key of this study is to explore the primary energy consumers in wastewater treatment plants, which is considered as one of the major energy consumers, and introduces the best solution to save energy and reduce emissions in these facilities. This study is based on the energy assessment and analyses of eleven wastewater treatment plants. Through the investigation, it was found that plants can save up to 44,158 MWh of the energy consumption which is 47% from the total electricity consumption with a 17% reduction in the total utility bills and that about 2.5 million dollars cost savings after reviewing the currently facilitated energy system. Additionally, an average of five years' payback period resulted in most energy-saving recommendations. A vast potential of greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced with a total range reduction between 13 to 35 million kg of CO 2 based on the speed reduction percentage.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Hydrogen Gas Generation and Permeation in the 9979 Type AF Shipping Package

The 9979 Type AF Shipping Packaging is a cost-effective radioactive material package designed by Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) that consists of two primary components: a foamed outer drum for structural protection and an inner containment drum. The packaging was designed to transport Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU), Low Enriched Uranium (LEU), and other isotopes not exceeding a Type A quantity. These contents have the potential to generate flammable hydrogen gas during transport due to the degradation of hydrogenous materials (e.g. water vapor, plastics, etc) by high-energy alpha radiation. Since 10 CFR 71.43(h) prohibits the incorporation of packaging features explicitly designed for continuous venting, alternative justification was required to demonstrate that the requirements of 10 CFR 71.43(d) for negligible reactions between packaging components and contents were satisfied. An analysis was performed to demonstrate that the potential for hydrogen gas generation over a one-year period was limited by the effects of permeation through the packaging materials. The rate of hydrogen collection was evaluated for both the inner containment drum and the outer structural drum under 10 CFR 71.71 Normal Conditions of Transport (NCT). The analysis concludes that the Lower Flammability Limit (LFL) for hydrogen gas will not be reached in a one-year shipping period assuming a minimum void volume is maintained within the drum.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Insights into Methodologies and Stochastic Optimization of Thermal Energy Storage-Coupled Advanced Reactor Systems: A Comparison of Methods for Accessing Long-Term Sub-System Sizing Adequacy

This paper investigates the potential of coupling Thermal Energy Storage (TES) with Advanced Reactors (ARs) to address uncertainties posed by climate change in deep decarbonized power systems. The TES Use-case Team at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has examined the potential of storing thermal energy from ARs during low demand periods and optimizing discharge during peak-priced hours, in both steady-state and transient conditions. Building on this groundwork, this study bridges the gaps in optimal sizing of the sub-system of TES-coupled AR systems using Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) and Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON), INL?s framework for grid optimization. By applying this framework, we present statistically-robust optimal charge, discharge including balance of plant (BOP), and storage sizing for the High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR) with 203 MWth output. To this end, we generated synthetic price samples for 30 years using 2018 ? 2021 real-time market data from ERCOT, PJM and MISO. Our results reveals that the TES-coupled HTGR system is highly effective in maximizing revenue from electricity sales. We observed a substantial increase of 40 % in ERCOT and a noteworthy 15 % increase in PJM and MISO when compared to the conventional BOP without TES. This improvement is achieved through regionally-tailored sub-system sizing, which ranges from 398 to 416 MWth for the discharge system and 610 to 1029 MWth for the TES. We find that the average electricity price directly impacts the overall economics, while price volatility influences storage size. Additional sensitivity analyses were performed to access the impact of key assumptions on system economics and sizing, differentiating the optimization window (i.e., 24 ? 219 hours of chronological observations) and by imposing storage continuity condition in tracking TES cycles. We observed that at the 120-hour of the optimization window, a reasonable balance between computation time and accuracy was achieved. Our analysis also highlights the significance of conducting multi-day cycle analysis (> 120-hour) for TES to capture interaction between electricity prices and storage dynamics, providing a comprehensive understanding of TES behavior that AR developers should integrate into their plant designs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Two Co-occurring Liana Species Strongly Differ in Their Hydraulic Traits in a Water-Limited Neotropical Forest

Lianas are a key growth form in tropical forests. They are believed to be strong competitors for water, thanks to their presumed efficient vascular systems. However, despite being a large polyphyletic group, they are currently often considered as a functionally homogeneous entity. In this study, we challenged this assumption by estimating the variability in hydraulic traits of two common, co-occurring liana species in a water-limited environment, namely, a seasonally dry tropical forest in Costa Rica. We measured vulnerability to embolism at the leaf and branch levels using two different methods (optical and acoustic vulnerability) and found that both species had very different hydraulic properties. Compared to reported P 50 values in literature, we found two extreme P 50 values: a low value for Bignonia diversifolia (−4.30 ± 0.54 MPa at the leaf level; −7.42 ± 0.54 MPa at the branch level) and a high value for Cissus microcarpa (−1.07 ± 0.14 at the leaf level; −1.20 ± 0.05 MPa at the branch level). Furthermore, B. diversifolia had a higher apparent modulus of elasticity in the radial direction (556.6 ± 401.0 MPa) and a variable midday water potential. On the other hand, C. microcarpa had a low apparent modulus of elasticity in the radial direction (37.8 ± 26.3 MPa) and a high branch water content, which enabled the species to keep its water potential stable during the dehydration experiments and during a drought period in the field. This mechanism may enable this species to coexist with species that are more resistant to drought-induced embolisms such as B. diversifolia . Although only two species were studied, considerable overlap was found between the range of hydraulic properties of trees growing in the same location and trees and lianas growing in two forests in Panama. These findings demonstrate that lianas cannot be considered as a homogeneous group and call for further research into the intra-growth form diversity of liana properties.

Coppieters, Kasper↗
DOE OSTI2023

Effect of Split-Injection Strategies on Engine Performance and Emissions under Cold-Start Operation

The recently concluded partnership for advancing combustion engines (PACE) was a US Department of Energy consortium involving multiple national laboratories focused on addressing key efficiency and emission barriers in light-duty engines. Generation of detailed experimental data and modeling capabilities to understand and predict cold-start behavior was a major pillar in this program. Cold-start, as defined by the time between first engine crank and three-way catalyst light-off, is responsible for a large percentage of NOx, unburned hydrocarbon, and particulate matter emissions in light-duty engines. Minimizing emissions during cold-start is a trade-off between achieving faster three-way catalyst light-off, and engine out emissions during that period. In this study, engine performance, emissions, and catalyst warmup potential were monitored while the engine was operated using a single direct injection (baseline case) as well as a two-way-equal-split direct injection strategy. These injection strategies were analyzed at a range of cold-start-operation relevant retarded spark timings of up to 25 degrees after top dead center of firing (dATDCf). A stoichiometric 2-bar NIMEP steady-state condition was used for all cases to simulate cold-start operation. Significant improvement in engine stability was observed with the two-way-split injection strategy at the retarded spark timings allowing for up to 2.5x increase in exhaust heat rate when engine operation is stability constrained. Similar fuel-loss-to-oil trends with exhaust heat rate were observed for both single and two-way-split injection strategies. However, the two-way split injection was observed to produce higher NOx emissions per unit exhaust heat rate. A single data point run with three-way-split direct injection at a very retarded spark-timing of 30 dATDCf pointed to further improvements in engine stability and reduction in fuel-loss-to-oil as compared to single injection strategy. Engine stability decreased as spark timing was initially retarded with a single injection but was observed to plateau and stabilize beyond spark timing of 10 dATDCf. Finally, for the two-way-split-injection strategy, retarding the start of injection (SOI) timing of the second injection led to a decrease in engine stability as well as an increase in soot emissions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

New understanding of inter-ELM pedestal turbulence, transport, and gradient behavior in the DIII-D tokamak

New observations of pedestal localized turbulence in the inter-ELM period of H-mode plasmas in DIII-D show that ion temperature gradient mode scale (ITG-scale) density fluctuation (ñ) increases immediately after each ELM crash and is quickly suppressed during the increase in local E × B shear. This excitation and subsequent suppression of ITG-scale ñ can explain the previously reported anomalous ion heat flux, Qi during the ELM (Viezzer et al 2017 Nucl. Fusion 57 022020). Shorter wavelength trapped electron mode scale (TEM-scale) ñ starts to increase at a critical pedestal temperature gradient (∇Te,ped) and saturates as local E × B shear, ${T}_{\mathrm{i}}^{\mathrm{C}\mathrm{6}+}/{T}_{\mathrm{e}}$ ratio, and ∇Te,ped saturate. This TEM-scale ñ, which has the potential to cause electron (and also ion) heat transport, is consistent with driving an anomalous electron heat flux Qe, where Qe is estimated between ELMs using experimental profiles and power balance. Both ITG- and TEM-scale ñ amplitude variations with background Ti/Te and ∇ne,ped are found to be consistent with theoretical predictions of these measured density fluctuations being ITG and TEM instabilities respectively. Furthermore, these new and unique observations on the nature of turbulence and their potential contributions to electron and ion heat fluxes at different ELM periods (i.e. collapse, recovery, and saturation phases of pedestal gradients) can significantly test and improve our pedestal predictive capabilities for ITER and other future fusion devices.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quasi-periodic travelling gravity–capillary waves

We present a numerical study of spatially quasi-periodic travelling waves on the surface of an ideal fluid of infinite depth. This is a generalization of the classic Wilton ripple problem to the case when the ratio of wavenumbers satisfying the dispersion relation is irrational. We propose a conformal mapping formulation of the water wave equations that employs a quasi-periodic variant of the Hilbert transform to compute the normal velocity of the fluid from its velocity potential on the free surface. We develop a Fourier pseudo-spectral discretization of the travelling water wave equations in which one-dimensional quasi-periodic functions are represented by two-dimensional periodic functions on the torus. This leads to an overdetermined nonlinear least-squares problem that we solve using a variant of the Levenberg–Marquardt method. We investigate various properties of quasi-periodic travelling waves, including Fourier resonances, time evolution in conformal space on the torus, asymmetric wave crests, capillary wave patterns that change from one gravity wave trough to the next without repeating and the dependence of wave speed and surface tension on the amplitude parameters that describe a two-parameter family of waves.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Acute wood smoke exposure is associated with cell-specific hippocampal transcriptomic responses in an accelerated ovarian failure mouse model

Background Wildfire events are increasing in frequency and intensity, and aging individuals demonstrate heightened biological susceptibility to air pollution exposures including increased risk of neurological sequelae. Declining ovarian hormones levels that occur with aging in females along with associated systemic physiological and inflammatory changes may contribute to increased cerebral vulnerability to air pollution, representing a potential but underexplored mechanism. Menopause and the menopausal transition represent a period of profound physiological change that affects cardiovascular, neurological, and immune health. Methods We tested whether peri-menopausal–like hormonal status amplifies hippocampal responses to acute wood smoke (WS) using an ovary-intact, 4-vinylcyclohexene diepoxide (VCD) model of moderate accelerated ovarian failure (AOF) in female C57BL/6 mice. Animals were exposed to HEPA-filtered air (FA) or WS for 4 h/day over 2 consecutive days (∼0.5 mg/m³). Exposure characterization confirmed a complex mixture of combustion products with significant levels of both trace metals and gas release during WS exposure. Results Spatial transcriptomics (10x Visium; n = 4 sections/group) with automated cell-type annotation identified astrocytes, GABAergic and glutamatergic neurons, oligodendrocytes, revealed cell type-specific transcriptional alterations following WS exposure. Distinct transcriptional patterns were observed across all identified neuronal and glial cell populations. Conclusion Together, these findings define a cell-type specific transcriptomic framework describing how WS exposure and ovarian hormone decline interact to influence hippocampal responses and identify potential cellular pathways relevant to hippocampal vulnerability.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Community structure and function during periods of high performance and system upset in a full-scale mixed microalgal wastewater resource recovery facility

Microalgae have the potential to exceed current nutrient recovery limits from wastewater, enabling water resource recovery facilities (WRRFs) to achieve increasingly stringent effluent permits. The use of photobioreactors (PBRs) and the separation of hydraulic retention and solids residence time (HRT/SRT) further enables increased biomass in a reduced physical footprint while allowing operational parameters (e.g., SRT) to select for desired functional communities. However, as algal technology transitions to full-scale, there is a need to understand the effect of operational and environmental parameters on complex microbial dynamics among mixotrophic microalgae, bacterial groups, and pests (i.e., grazers and pathogens) and to implement robust process controls for stable long-term performance. Here, we examine a full-scale, intensive WRRF utilizing mixed microalgae for tertiary treatment in the US (EcoRecover, Clearas Water Recovery Inc.) during a nine-month monitoring campaign. We investigated the temporal variations in microbial community structure (18S and 16S rRNA genes), which revealed that stable system performance of the EcoRecover system was marked by a low-diversity microalgal community (D INVSIMPSON = 2.01) dominated by Scenedesmus sp. (MRA = 55 %-80 %) that achieved strict nutrient removal (effluent TP < 0.04 mg·L -1 ) and steady biomass concentration (TSS monthly avg . = 400–700 mg·L −1 ). Operational variables including pH, alkalinity, and influent ammonium (NH 4 + ), correlated positively (p < 0.05, method = Spearman) with algal community during stable performance. Further, the use of these parameters as operational controls along with N/P loading and SRT allowed for system recovery following upset events. Importantly, the presence or absence of bacterial nitrification did not directly impact algal system performance and overall nutrient recovery, but partial nitrification (potentially resulting from NO 2 − accumulation) inhibited algal growth and should be considered during long-term operation. The microalgal communities were also adversely affected by zooplankton grazers (ciliates, rotifers) and fungal parasites (Aphelidium), particularly during periods of upset when algal cultures were experiencing culture turnover or stress conditions (e.g., nitrogen limitation, elevated temperature). Altogether, the active management of system operation in order to maintain healthy algal cultures and high biomass productivity can result in significant periods (>4 months) of stable system performance that achieve robust nutrient recovery, even in winter months in northern latitudes (WI, USA).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Changing temperature profiles and the risk of dengue outbreaks

As temperatures change worldwide, the pattern and competency of disease vectors will change, altering the global distribution of both the burden of infectious disease and the risk of the emergence of those diseases into new regions. To evaluate the risk of potential summer dengue outbreaks triggered by infected travelers under various climate scenarios, we develop an SEIR-type model, run numerical simulations, and conduct sensitivity analyses under a range of temperature profiles. Our model extends existing theoretical frameworks for studying dengue dynamics by introducing temperature dependence of two key parameters: the mosquito extrinsic incubation period and the lifespan of mosquitoes, which empirical data suggests are both highly temperature dependent. We find that changing temperature significantly alters dengue risk in an inverted U-shape, with temperatures in the range 27-31°C producing the highest risk. As temperatures increase beyond 31°C, the determinants of dengue risk begin to shift from mosquito biting rate and carrying capacity to the duration of the human infectious period, suggesting that changing temperatures not only alter dengue risk but also the potential efficacy of control measures. To illustrate the role of spatial and temporal temperature heterogeneity, we select five US cities where the primary dengue vector, the mosquito Aedes aegypti , has been observed, and which have had dengue cases in the past: Los Angeles, Houston, Miami, Brownsville, and Phoenix. Our analysis suggests that an increase of 3°C leads to an approximate doubling of the risk of dengue in Los Angeles and Houston, but a reduction of risk in Miami, Brownsville, and Phoenix due to extreme heat.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗