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NASA NTRS1999

Approximation for Horizontal Photon Transport in Cloud Remote Sensing Problems

The effect of horizontal photon transport within real-world clouds can be of consequence to remote sensing problems based on plane-parallel cloud models. An analytic approximation for the root-mean-square horizontal displacement of reflected and transmitted photons relative to the incident cloud-top location is derived from random walk theory. The resulting formula is a function of the average number of photon scatterings, and particle asymmetry parameter and single scattering albedo. In turn, the average number of scatterings can be determined from efficient adding/doubling radiative transfer procedures. The approximation is applied to liquid water clouds for typical remote sensing solar spectral bands, involving both conservative and non-conservative scattering. Results compare well with Monte Carlo calculations. Though the emphasis is on horizontal photon transport in terrestrial clouds, the derived approximation is applicable to any multiple scattering plane-parallel radiative transfer problem. The complete horizontal transport probability distribution can be described with an analytic distribution specified by the root-mean-square and average displacement values. However, it is shown empirically that the average displacement can be reasonably inferred from the root-mean-square value. An estimate for the horizontal transport distribution can then be made from the root-mean-square photon displacement alone.

Plantnick, Steven↗

NASA NTRS2000

Sampling Errors of SSM/I and TRMM Rainfall Averages: Comparison with Error Estimates from Surface Data and a Sample Model

Quantitative use of satellite-derived maps of monthly rainfall requires some measure of the accuracy of the satellite estimates. The rainfall estimate for a given map grid box is subject to both remote-sensing error and, in the case of low-orbiting satellites, sampling error due to the limited number of observations of the grid box provided by the satellite. A simple model of rain behavior predicts that Root-mean-square (RMS) random error in grid-box averages should depend in a simple way on the local average rain rate, and the predicted behavior has been seen in simulations using surface rain-gauge and radar data. This relationship was examined using satellite SSM/I data obtained over the western equatorial Pacific during TOGA COARE. RMS error inferred directly from SSM/I rainfall estimates was found to be larger than predicted from surface data, and to depend less on local rain rate than was predicted. Preliminary examination of TRMM microwave estimates shows better agreement with surface data. A simple method of estimating rms error in satellite rainfall estimates is suggested, based on quantities that can be directly computed from the satellite data.

Bell, Thomas L.↗

NASA NTRS2011

The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Mission: Overview

The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission is one of the first Earth observation satellites being developed by NASA in response to the National Research Council?s Decadal Survey [1]. Its mission design consists of L-band radiometer and radar instruments sharing a rotating 6-m mesh reflector antenna to provide high-resolution and high-accuracy global maps of soil moisture and freeze/thaw state every 2-3 days. The combined active/passive microwave soil moisture product will have a spatial resolution of 10 km and a mean latency of 24 hours. In addition, the SMAP surface observations will be combined with advanced modeling and data assimilation to provide deeper root zone soil moisture and net ecosystem exchange of carbon. SMAP is expected to launch in the late 2014 - early 2015 time frame.

O'Neill, Peggy↗

NASA NTRS2012

Determination of Ice Cloud Models Using MODIS and MISR Data

Representation of ice clouds in radiative transfer simulations is subject to uncertainties associated with the shapes and sizes of ice crystals within cirrus clouds. In this study, we examined several ice cloud models consisting of smooth, roughened, homogeneous and inhomogeneous hexagonal ice crystals with various aspect ratios. The sensitivity of the bulk scattering properties and solar reflectances of cirrus clouds to specific ice cloud models is investigated using the improved geometric optics method (IGOM) and the discrete ordinates radiative transfer (DISORT) model. The ice crystal habit fractions in the ice cloud model may significantly affect the simulations of cloud reflectances. A new algorithm was developed to help determine an appropriate ice cloud model for application to the satellite-based retrieval of ice cloud properties. The ice cloud particle size retrieved from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data, collocated with Multi-angle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) observations, is used to infer the optical thicknesses of ice clouds for nine MISR viewing angles. The relative differences between view-dependent cloud optical thickness and the averaged value over the nine MISR viewing angles can vary from −0.5 to 0.5 and are used to evaluate the ice cloud models. In the case for 2 July 2009, the ice cloud model with mixed ice crystal habits is the best fit to the observations (the root mean square (RMS) error of cloud optical thickness reaches 0.365). This ice cloud model also produces consistent cloud property retrievals for the nine MISR viewing configurations within the measurement uncertainties.

MODIS↗

NASA NTRS2015

A Photometric Machine-Learning Method to Infer Stellar Metallicity

Following its formation, a star's metal content is one of the few factors that can significantly alter its evolution. Measurements of stellar metallicity ([Fe/H]) typically require a spectrum, but spectroscopic surveys are limited to a few x 10(exp 6) targets; photometric surveys, on the other hand, have detected > 10(exp 9) stars. I present a new machine-learning method to predict [Fe/H] from photometric colors measured by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). The training set consists of approx. 120,000 stars with SDSS photometry and reliable [Fe/H] measurements from the SEGUE Stellar Parameters Pipeline (SSPP). For bright stars (g' < or = 18 mag), with 4500 K < or = Teff < or = 7000 K, corresponding to those with the most reliable SSPP estimates, I find that the model predicts [Fe/H] values with a root-mean-squared-error (RMSE) of approx.0.27 dex. The RMSE from this machine-learning method is similar to the scatter in [Fe/H] measurements from low-resolution spectra..

machine learning↗

NASA NTRS2022

Detailing Cloud Property Feedbacks with a Regime-Based Decomposition

Diagnosing the root causes of cloud feedback in climate models and reasons for inter-model disagreement is a necessary first step in understanding their wide variation in climate sensitivities. Here we bring together two analysis techniques that illuminate complementary aspects of cloud feedback. The first quantifies feedbacks from changes in cloud amount, altitude, and optical depth, while the second separates feedbacks due to cloud property changes within specific cloud regimes from those due to regime occurrence frequency changes. We find that in the global mean, shortwave cloud feedback averaged across ten models comes solely from a positive within-regime cloud amount feedback countered slightly by a negative within-regime optical depth feedback. These within-regime feedbacks are highly uniform: In nearly all regimes, locations, and models, cloud amount decreases and cloud albedo increases with warming. In contrast, global-mean across-regime components vary widely across models but are very small on average. This component, however, is dominant in setting the geographic structure of the shortwave cloud feedback: Thicker, more extensive cloud types increase at the expense of thinner, less extensive cloud types in the extratropics, and vice versa at low latitudes. The prominent negative extratropical optical depth feedback has contributions from both within- and across-regime components, suggesting that thermodynamic processes affecting cloud properties as well as dynamical processes that favor thicker cloud regimes are important. The feedback breakdown presented herein may provide additional targets for observational constraints by isolating cloud property feedbacks within specific regimes without the obfuscating effects of changing dynamics that may differ across timescales.

climate sensitivity↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

PM 2.5 Concentrations over Major Metropolitan Regions Inferred from Airborne High Spectral Resolution Lidar Measurements Using Machine Learning Regression

We use measurements of near-surface aerosol backscatter, extinction, and depolarization acquired by four NASA Langley Research Center airborne High Spectral Resolution Lidars (HSRLs) to develop a machine learning regression methodology to infer PM2.5 concentrations at the surface and aloft. These airborne HSRL measurements were acquired over major metropolitan regions in the United States and Asia during more than 170 flights since 2010. Hourly surface PM2.5 measurements from the EPA air quality system and similar networks in other countries acquired within 10 km and 15 minutes of these near-surface HSRL measurements are used to train models that compute PM2.5 concentrations from the HSRL measurements. We examine several regression methods and find that exponential Gaussian Process algorithms consistently give the best performance in terms of the lowest root-mean-square (RMS) errors and the highest correlations. Model performance varies significantly depending on various combinations of HSRL aerosol measurements (e.g., aerosol backscatter, extinction, depolarization, backscatter color ratios, lidar ratios, aerosol optical thickness) and retrievals (e.g., mixed layer height, aerosol type) used in the regressions. Models that use near-surface measurements of aerosol backscatter and aerosol intensive properties such as depolarization, backscatter color ratio, and lidar ratio typically give the best performance with RMS errors around 4 mg/m3 and correlation coefficients above 0.9. HSRL measurements were often acquired when the aircraft flew systematic “raster-scan” patterns for several hours over these cities. These flight patterns enabled measurements of the spatial, temporal, and vertical variabilities in the distributions of aerosol backscatter and aerosol intensive properties and allowed us to derive the corresponding variabilities in PM2.5 concentrations. We present examples of such variabilities over urban areas in the United States as well as Asia. We describe also how the distribution of surface PM2.5 varies with aerosol type and use these retrievals to examine model simulations of surface PM2.5 in these metropolitan regions. We also discuss how this methodology may be applied to measurements from satellite lidars such as CALIOP on CALIPSO and ATLID on EarthCARE.

lidar↗

NASA NTRS2011

Command Process Modeling & Risk Analysis

Commanding Errors may be caused by a variety of root causes. It's important to understand the relative significance of each of these causes for making institutional investment decisions. One of these causes is the lack of standardized processes and procedures for command and control. We mitigate this problem by building periodic tables and models corresponding to key functions within it. These models include simulation analysis and probabilistic risk assessment models.

functional analysis↗

NASA NTRS2011

Test-Anchored Vibration Response Predictions for an Acoustically Energized Curved Orthogrid Panel with Mounted Components

rich body of vibroacoustic test data was recently generated at Marshall Space Flight Center for component-loaded curved orthogrid panels typical of launch vehicle skin structures. The test data were used to anchor computational predictions of a variety of spatially distributed responses including acceleration, strain and component interface force. Transfer functions relating the responses to the input pressure field were generated from finite element based modal solutions and test-derived damping estimates. A diffuse acoustic field model was applied to correlate the measured input sound pressures across the energized panel. This application quantifies the ability to quickly and accurately predict a variety of responses to acoustically energized skin panels with mounted components. Favorable comparisons between the measured and predicted responses were established. The validated models were used to examine vibration response sensitivities to relevant modeling parameters such as pressure patch density, mesh density, weight of the mounted component and model form. Convergence metrics include spectral densities and cumulative root-mean squared (RMS) functions for acceleration, velocity, displacement, strain and interface force. Minimum frequencies for response convergence were established as well as recommendations for modeling techniques, particularly in the early stages of a component design when accurate structural vibration requirements are needed relatively quickly. The results were compared with long-established guidelines for modeling accuracy of component-loaded panels. A theoretical basis for the Response/Pressure Transfer Function (RPTF) approach provides insight into trends observed in the response predictions and confirmed in the test data. The software developed for the RPTF method allows easy replacement of the diffuse acoustic field with other pressure fields such as a turbulent boundary layer (TBL) model suitable for vehicle ascent. Structural responses using a TBL model were demonstrated, and wind tunnel tests have been proposed to anchor the predictions and provide new insight into modeling approaches for this environment. Finally, design load factors were developed from the measured and predicted responses and compared with those derived from traditional techniques such as historical Mass Acceleration Curves and Barrett scaling methods for acreage and component-loaded panels.

Frady, Gregory P.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Test-Anchored Vibration Response Predictions for an Acoustically Energized Curved Orthogrid Panel with Mounted Components

A rich body of vibroacoustic test data was recently generated at Marshall Space Flight Center for a curved orthogrid panel typical of launch vehicle skin structures. Several test article configurations were produced by adding component equipment of differing weights to the flight-like vehicle panel. The test data were used to anchor computational predictions of a variety of spatially distributed responses including acceleration, strain and component interface force. Transfer functions relating the responses to the input pressure field were generated from finite element based modal solutions and test-derived damping estimates. A diffuse acoustic field model was employed to describe the assumed correlation of phased input sound pressures across the energized panel. This application demonstrates the ability to quickly and accurately predict a variety of responses to acoustically energized skin panels with mounted components. Favorable comparisons between the measured and predicted responses were established. The validated models were used to examine vibration response sensitivities to relevant modeling parameters such as pressure patch density, mesh density, weight of the mounted component and model form. Convergence metrics include spectral densities and cumulative root-mean squared (RMS) functions for acceleration, velocity, displacement, strain and interface force. Minimum frequencies for response convergence were established as well as recommendations for modeling techniques, particularly in the early stages of a component design when accurate structural vibration requirements are needed relatively quickly. The results were compared with long-established guidelines for modeling accuracy of component-loaded panels. A theoretical basis for the Response/Pressure Transfer Function (RPTF) approach provides insight into trends observed in the response predictions and confirmed in the test data. The software modules developed for the RPTF method can be easily adapted for quick replacement of the diffuse acoustic field with other pressure field models; for example a turbulent boundary layer (TBL) model suitable for vehicle ascent. Wind tunnel tests have been proposed to anchor the predictions and provide new insight into modeling approaches for this type of environment. Finally, component vibration environments for design were developed from the measured and predicted responses and compared with those derived from traditional techniques such as Barrett scaling methods for unloaded and component-loaded panels.

Frady, Gregory P.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Methods and models for predicting fatigue crack growth under random loading

Papers are presented in the volume summarizing the baseline data, methodology, procedures, and results of a round-robin analysis which was conducted to predict the fatigue crack growth in 2219-T851 aluminum center-cracked specimens subjected to flight loading in random cycle-by-cycle format. The objective of the analysis was to assess whether data from constant-amplitude fatigue crack growth tests on center-cracked specimens can be used to predict fatigue crack growth lives under random loading. The following approaches are discussed in detail: a root-mean-square approach, a crack-closure model, a multi-parameter yield zone model, and a load-interaction model.

Chang, J. B.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Aeroservoelastic Testing of Free Flying Wind Tunnel Models Part 1: A Sidewall Supported Semispan Model Tested for Gust Load Alleviation and Flutter Suppression

of a two part document. Part 2 is titled: "Aeroservoelastic Testing of Free Flying Wind Tunnel Models, Part 2: A Centerline Supported Fullspan Model Tested for Gust Load Alleviation." A team comprised of the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL), Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, and the NASA Langley Research Center conducted three aeroservoelastic wind tunnel tests in the Transonic Dynamics Tunnel to demonstrate active control technologies relevant to large, flexible vehicles. In the first of these three tests, a semispan, aeroelastically scaled, wind tunnel model of a flying wing SensorCraft vehicle was mounted to a force balance to demonstrate gust load alleviation. In the second and third tests, the same wing was mated to a new, multi-degree of freedom, sidewall mount. This mount allowed the half-span model to translate vertically and pitch at the wing root, allowing better simulation of the full span vehicle's rigid body modes. Gust load alleviation (GLA) and Body freedom flutter (BFF) suppression were successfully demonstrated. The rigid body degrees-of-freedom required that the model be flown in the wind tunnel using an active control system. This risky mode of testing necessitated that a model arrestment system be integrated into the new mount. The safe and successful completion of these free flying tests required the development and integration of custom hardware and software. This paper describes the many systems, software, and procedures that were developed as part of this effort.

Scott, Robert C.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Scaling Observation Error for Optimal Assimilation of CCI SST Data into a Regional HYCOM EnOI System

South Africa currently possesses no operational ocean forecasting system for the purpose of predicting ocean state variables including temperature,salinity and velocity. Substantial initial efforts towards this goal have been made and resulted in a system using a regional Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) along with the Ensemble Optimal Interpolation (EnOI)assimilation scheme. Assimilating only sea surface temperature (SST) observations from the Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis (OSTIA) product into the system resulted in a degraded forecast. Aiming to address this, Climate Change Initiative (CCI) SSTs are assimilated into the system in an effort to improve the forecast skill. Observation errors in the assimilated product are used in the EnOI to determine whether more confidence should be placed in the model or observations in producing the analysis, but overconfidence in observations can shock the model and result in failure. To tweak the impact of the assimilation, a scaling factor is applied in the assimilation code. A scaling factor of 25 was found to produce a favourable result with lowest mean root mean square error (RMSE;1.098°C) between the model and observations over time. Postulating the error to be overconfident, a floor value is introduced in order to set a minimum value for the observation error thereby reducing confidence in the observations. These experiments fared less favourably with a floor value of 0.5 and a scaling factor of 15 producing the best mean RMSE (1.118°C).

Luyt, Hermann↗

NASA NTRS2006

Another Approach to Enhance Airline Safety: Using Management Safety Tools

The ultimate goal of conducting an accident investigation is to prevent similar accidents from happening again and to make operations safer system-wide. Based on the findings extracted from the investigation, the "lesson learned" becomes a genuine part of the safety database making risk management available to safety analysts. The airline industry is no exception. In the US, the FAA has advocated the usage of the System Safety concept in enhancing safety since 2000. Yet, in today s usage of System Safety, the airline industry mainly focuses on risk management, which is a reactive process of the System Safety discipline. In order to extend the merit of System Safety and to prevent accidents beforehand, a specific System Safety tool needs to be applied; so a model of hazard prediction can be formed. To do so, the authors initiated this study by reviewing 189 final accident reports from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) covering FAR Part 121 scheduled operations. The discovered accident causes (direct hazards) were categorized into 10 groups Flight Operations, Ground Crew, Turbulence, Maintenance, Foreign Object Damage (FOD), Flight Attendant, Air Traffic Control, Manufacturer, Passenger, and Federal Aviation Administration. These direct hazards were associated with 36 root factors prepared for an error-elimination model using Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), a leading tool for System Safety experts. An FTA block-diagram model was created, followed by a probability simulation of accidents. Five case studies and reports were provided in order to fully demonstrate the usefulness of System Safety tools in promoting airline safety.

Lu, Chien-tsug↗

NASA NTRS2008

Aeroservoelastic Testing of a Sidewall Mounted Free Flying Wind-Tunnel Model

A team comprised of the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL), Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, and the NASA Langley Research Center conducted three j wind-tunnel tests in the Transonic Dynamics Tunnel to demonstrate active control technologies relevant to large, exible vehicles. In the rst of these three tests, a semispan, aeroelastically scaled, wind-tunnel model of a ying wing SensorCraft vehi- cle was mounted to a force balance to demonstrate gust load alleviation. In the second and third tests, the same wing was mated to a new, multi-degree-of-freedom, sidewall mount. This mount allowed the half-span model to translate vertically and pitch at the wing root, allowing better simulation of the full span vehicle's rigid-body modes. Gust Load Alleviation (GLA) and Body Freedom Flutter (BFF) suppression were successfully demonstrated. The rigid body degrees-of-freedom required that the model be own in the wind tunnel using an active control system. This risky mode of testing necessitated that a model arrestment system be integrated into the new mount. The safe and successful completion of these free-flying tests required the development and integration of custom hardware and software. This paper describes the many systems, software, and procedures that were developed as part of this effort.

Scott, Robert C.↗

NASA NTRS2010

The SMAP Level 4 Surface and Root-zone Soil Moisture (L4_SM) Product

The Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP) mission is being developed by NASA for launch in 2013 as one of four first-tier missions recommended by the U.S. National Research Council Committee on Earth Science and Applications from Space in 2007. The primary science objectives of SMAP are to enhance understanding of land surface controls on the water, energy and carbon cycles, and to determine their linkages. Moreover, the high resolution soil moisture mapping provided by SMAP has practical applications in weather and seasonal climate prediction, agriculture, human health, drought and flood decision support. In this paper we describe the assimilation of SMAP observations for the generation of the planned SMAP Level 4 Surface and Root-zone Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product. The SMAP mission makes simultaneous active (radar) and passive (radiometer) measurements in the 1.26-1.43 GHz range (L-band) from a sun-synchronous low-earth orbit. Measurements will be obtained across a 1000 km wide swath using conical scanning at a constant incidence angle (40 deg). The radar resolution varies from 1-3 km over the outer 70% of the swath to about 30 km near the center of the swath. The radiometer resolution is 40 km across the entire swath. The radiometer measurements will allow high-accuracy but coarse resolution (40 km) measurements. The radar measurements will add significantly higher resolution information. The radar is however very sensitive to surface roughness and vegetation structure. The combination of the two measurements allows optimal blending of the advantages of each instrument. SMAP directly observes only surface soil moisture (in the top 5 cm of the soil column). Several of the key applications targeted by SMAP, however, require knowledge of root zone soil moisture (approximately top 1 m of the soil column), which is not directly measured by SMAP. The foremost objective of the SMAP L4_SM product is to fill this gap and provide estimates of root zone soil moisture that are informed by and consistent with SMAP observations. Such estimates are obtained by merging SMAP observations with estimates from a land surface model in a soil moisture data assimilation system. The land surface model component of the assimilation system is driven with observations-based surface meteorological forcing data, including precipitation, which is the most important driver for soil moisture. The model also encapsulates knowledge of key land surface processes, including the vertical transfer of soil moisture between the surface and root zone reservoirs. Finally, the model interpolates and extrapolates SMAP observations in time and in space. The L4_SM product thus provides a comprehensive and consistent picture of land surface hydrological conditions based on SMAP observations and complementary information from a variety of sources. The assimilation algorithm considers the respective uncertainties of each component and yields a product that is superior to satellite or model data alone. Error estimates for the L4_SM product are generated as a by-product of the data assimilation system.

Reichle, Rolf↗

NASA NTRS2014

Addressing the Hard Factors for Command File Errors by Probabilistic Reasoning

Command File Errors (CFE) are managed using standard risk management approaches at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Over the last few years, more emphasis has been made on the collection, organization, and analysis of these errors for the purpose of reducing the CFE rates. More recently, probabilistic modeling techniques have been used for more in depth analysis of the perceived error rates of the DAWN mission and for managing the soft factors in the upcoming phases of the mission. We broadly classify the factors that can lead to CFE's as soft factors, which relate to the cognition of the operators and hard factors which relate to the Mission System which is composed of the hardware, software and procedures used for the generation, verification & validation and execution of commands. The focus of this paper is to use probabilistic models that represent multiple missions at JPL to determine the root cause and sensitivities of the various components of the mission system and develop recommendations and techniques for addressing them. The customization of these multi-mission models to a sample interplanetary spacecraft is done for this purpose.

Meshkat, Leila↗

NASA NTRS2005

Loads Model Development and Analysis for the F/A-18 Active Aeroelastic Wing Airplane

The Active Aeroelastic Wing airplane was successfully flight-tested in March 2005. During phase 1 of the two-phase program, an onboard excitation system provided independent control surface movements that were used to develop a loads model for the wing structure and wing control surfaces. The resulting loads model, which was used to develop the control laws for phase 2, is described. The loads model was developed from flight data through the use of a multiple linear regression technique. The loads model input consisted of aircraft states and control surface positions, in addition to nonlinear inputs that were calculated from flight-measured parameters. The loads model output for each wing consisted of wing-root bending moment and torque, wing-fold bending moment and torque, inboard and outboard leading-edge flap hinge moment, trailing-edge flap hinge moment, and aileron hinge moment. The development of the Active Aeroelastic Wing loads model is described, and the ability of the model to predict loads during phase 2 research maneuvers is demonstrated. Results show a good match to phase 2 flight data for all loads except inboard and outboard leading-edge flap hinge moments at certain flight conditions. The average load prediction errors for all loads at all flight conditions are 9.1 percent for maximum stick-deflection rolls, 4.4 percent for 5-g windup turns, and 7.7 percent for 4-g rolling pullouts.

Allen, Michael J.↗