Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “scenario design”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 235 records · Page 13

Biochemical Conversion of Herbaceous Biomass to Renewable Diesel: Net Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollutant Trade-offs

This study examines greenhouse gas (GHG) and criteria air pollutant (CAP) emissions trade-offs for renewable diesel across 12 scenarios, involving different biochemical conversion designs, biorefinery scales, and feedstocks. A conventional design uses lignin for on-site heat and power, which exports excess power to the grid. An alternative design exports lignin pellets, offsetting other pellet production methods but requiring grid electricity to meet biorefinery power demands. Net emissions were quantified in Iowa and Georgia, selected considering feedstock availability, coproduct displacement, and regional power grids, assuming grid-exported power avoids coal or low-carbon electricity. Results for the conventional design remained consistent across the electricity displacement scenarios. When comparing lignin utilization strategies, pelletizing lignin reduces sulfur dioxide, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and volatile organic compounds (net emissions –0.66 mg MJ –1 , 25 mg MJ –1 , 25 mg MJ –1 , 7.8 mg MJ –1 , respectively). However, lignin pelletization increases net particulate matter (fine and coarse) and ammonia (net emissions of 4.7 mg MJ –1 , 13 mg MJ –1 , and 0.26 mg MJ –1 , respectively), alongside indirect GHG emissions due to grid electricity dependence. Additionally, processing 2000 tonnes corn stover daily minimizes emissions for both designs. Only lignin pelletization with renewable electricity and additional particulate matter and ammonia controls reduces all CAP and GHG emissions simultaneously.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

A Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) of Human Space Missions for the Advanced Integration Matrix (AIM)

The Advanced Integration Matrix (AIM) Project u7ill study and solve systems-level integration issues for exploration missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO), through the design and development of a ground-based facility for developing revolutionary integrated systems for joint human-robotic missions. This paper describes a Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) of human space missions that was developed to help define the direction and priorities for AIM. Risk analysis is required for all major NASA programs and has been used for shuttle, station, and Mars lander programs. It is a prescribed part of early planning and is necessary during concept definition, even before mission scenarios and system designs exist. PRA cm begin when little failure data are available, and be continually updated and refined as detail becomes available. PRA provides a basis for examining tradeoffs among safety, reliability, performance, and cost. The objective of AIM's PRA is to indicate how risk can be managed and future human space missions enabled by the AIM Project. Many critical events can cause injuries and fatalities to the crew without causing loss of vehicle or mission. Some critical systems are beyond AIM's scope, such as propulsion and guidance. Many failure-causing events can be mitigated by conducting operational tests in AIM, such as testing equipment and evaluating operational procedures, especially in the areas of communications and computers, autonomous operations, life support, thermal design, EVA and rover activities, physiological factors including habitation, medical equipment, and food, and multifunctional tools and repairable systems. AIM is well suited to test and demonstrate the habitat, life support, crew operations, and human interface. Because these account for significant crew, systems performance, and science risks, AIM will help reduce mission risk, and missions beyond LEO are far enough in the future that AIM can have significant impact.

Jones, Harry W.↗

James Webb Space Telescope Initial Mid-Course Correction Monte Carlo Implementation using Task Parallelism

The James Webb Space Telescope will be launched into a highly elliptical orbit that does not possess sufficient energy to achieve a proper Sun-Earth/Moon L2 libration point orbit. Three mid-course correction (MCC) maneuvers are planned to rectify the energy deficit: MCC-1a, MCC-1b, and MCC-2. To validate the propellant budget and trajectory design methods, a set of Monte Carlo analyses that incorporate MCC maneuver modeling and execution are employed. The first analysis focuses on the effects of launch vehicle injection errors on the magnitude of MCC-1a. The second on the spread of potential V based on the performance of the propulsion system as applied to all three MCC maneuvers. The final highlights the slight, but notable, contribution of the attitude thrusters during each MCC maneuver. Given the possible variations in these three scenarios, the trajectory design methods are determined to be robust to errors in the modeling of the flight system.

James Webb Space Telescope↗

James Webb Space Telescope Initial Mid-Course Correction Monte Carlo Implementation using Task Parallelism

The James Webb Space Telescope will be launched into a highly elliptical orbit that does not possess sufficient energy to achieve a proper Sun-Earth L2 libration point orbit. Three mid-course correction (MCC) maneuvers are planned to rectify the energy deficit: MCC-1a, MCC-1b, and MCC-2. To validate the propellant budget and trajectory design methods, a set of Monte Carlo analyses that incorporate MCC maneuver modeling and execution are employed. The first analysis focuses on the effects of launch vehicle injection errors on the magnitude of MCC-1a. The second on the spread of potential V based on the performance of the propulsion system as applied to all three MCC maneuvers. The final highlights the slight, but notable, contribution of the attitude thrusters during each MCC maneuver. Given the possible variations in these three scenarios, the trajectory design methods are determined to be robust to errors in the modeling of the flight system.

Libration Point Orbit↗

Servicing and Deployment of National Resources in Sun-Earth Libration Point Orbits

Spacecraft travel between the Sun-Earth system, the Earth-Moon system, and beyond has received extensive attention recently. The existence of a connection between unstable regions enables mission designers to envision scenarios of multiple spacecraft traveling cheaply from system to system, rendezvousing, servicing, and refueling along the way. This paper presents examples of transfers between the Sun-Earth and Earth-Moon systems using a true ephemeris and perturbation model. It shows the (Delta)V costs associated with these transfers, including the costs to reach the staging region from the Earth. It explores both impulsive and low thrust transfer trajectories. Additionally, analysis that looks specifically at the use of nuclear power in libration point orbits and the issues associated with them such as inadvertent Earth return is addressed. Statistical analysis of Earth returns and the design of biased orbits to prevent any possible return are discussed. Lastly, the idea of rendezvous between spacecraft in libration point orbits using impulsive maneuvers is addressed.

Folta, David C.↗

Multi-Mission Suitability of the NASA Ames Modular Common Bus

The obvious advantages of small spacecraft - their lower cost structure and the rapid development schedule - have enabled a large number of missions in the past. However, most of these missions have been focused on Earth observation from low Earth orbits. In 2006, the Small Spacecraft Division at the NASA Ames Research Center began the development of the Modular Common Bus, a spacecraft capable of delivering scientifically and technically useful payloads to a variety of destinations within 0.1 AU around the Earth. The core technologies used in the Common Bus design are a composite structure with body-mounted solar cells, an integrated avionics unit, and a high performance bipropellant propulsion system. Due to its modular approach, the Common Bus can be adapted to fit specific mission needs while still using a standardized and qualified set of components. Additionally a number of low cost launch vehicles are supported, resulting in overall mission costs of around $150M including the launch vehicle but excluding the science payloads. This significant reduction in cost and the shorter development time would enable NASA to conduct more frequent exploration missions within its budget and timeframe constraints, compared to the status quo. In this paper the suitability of the Common Spacecraft Bus for four different exploration scenarios is analyzed. These scenarios include a lunar orbiter, a lunar lander, a mission to a Sun-Earth Libration Point, and a rendezvous mission to a Near Earth Object. For each scenario, a preliminary design reference mission is developed and key design parameters for the spacecraft are determined.

Tietz, Sascha↗

Resilient NdFeB magnet recycling under the impacts of COVID-19 pandemic: Stochastic programming and Benders decomposition

Neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnets are the most powerful magnets per unit volume sold in the commercial market. Despite the increasing demand for clean energy applications such as electric vehicles and wind turbines, disruptive events including the COVID-19 pandemic have caused significant uncertainties in the supply and demand for NdFeB magnets. Therefore, this study aims to alleviate the risk of supply shortage for NdFeB magnets and the containing critical materials, rare-earth elements (REEs), through the development of a resilient reverse supply chain and logistics network design. We develop scenarios to model the unique impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the proposed business, incorporating both disruption intensity and recovery rate. We formulate a chance-constrained two-stage stochastic programming model to maximize the profit while guaranteeing the network resiliency against disruption risks. To solve the problem in large-scale instances, we develop an efficient Benders decomposition algorithm that reduces the computational time by 98.5% on average compared to the default CPLEX algorithm. When applied to the United States, the model suggests the optimal facility locations, processing capacities, inventory levels, and material flows for NdFeB magnet recyclers that could meet 99.7% of the demand. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to incorporate the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic to design a resilient NdFeB magnet recycling supply chain and logistics network, leveraging risk-averse stochastic programming.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Passive Thrust Oscillation Mitigation for the CEV Crew Pallet System

The Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) was intended to be the next-generation human spacecraft for the Constellation Program. The CEV Isolator Strut mechanism was designed to mitigate loads imparted to the CEV crew caused by the Thrust Oscillation (TO) phenomenon of the proposed Ares I Launch Vehicle (LV). The Isolator Strut was also designed to be compatible with Launch Abort (LA) contingencies and landing scenarios. Prototype struts were designed, built, and tested in component, sub-system, and system-level testing. The design of the strut, the results of the tests, and the conclusions and lessons learned from the program will be explored in this paper.

Sammons, Matthew↗

DIOGENES: Expert system for extraction of data system requirements

AA The initial operations concept expresses information about system objectives, and defines the system users, system interfaces, and operational performance constraints. We have developed a prototype expert system which has established the feasibility of automating a scenario-driven methodology for deriving top-level specifications and preliminary designs for user data systems. This scenario-driven methodology uses an initial design, an initial operations concept, and user scenarios as the starting point for system definition. The top-level initial design is a functional description of the system in the form of an annotated data flow diagram. The initial operations concept expresses informationabout system objectives, and defines the system users, system interfaces, and operational performance constraints. The user scenarios are detailed time-lined descriptions of user activities, developed by prospective end users. These scenarios, along with the initial design and operations concept, are analyzed and iterated by the expert system to form a consistent set. The resulting User Scenario-Operation Set plays a key role in the development of requirements and system tests.

Hobbs, Robert W.↗

Decayheatml

This code is designed to predict and analyze the decay heat generated in molten salt reactors (MSRs) using a hybrid approach that combines machine learning and segmented polynomial fitting. The accurate prediction of decay heat is essential for reactor safety and the optimization of spent fuel storage. The code operates through several key components: 1) Data Architecture: It incorporates a modular data architecture that handles various MSR-specific operational parameters such as power density, humidity content, and air ingress. These parameters are sampled using Sobol sequences to ensure comprehensive coverage of operational uncertainties. 2) Machine Learning Framework: The code employs a diverse set of machine learning models, including polynomial regression, decision trees, random forests, gradient boosting, support vector regression, k-nearest neighbors, multi-layer perceptrons, and symbolic regression. These models are trained to predict decay heat over a wide temporal range, from immediate shutdown up to 10,000 years. 3) Region-Optimized Training: The temporal domain is divided into multiple regions, each modeled separately to capture distinct decay heat characteristics across different time scales. This approach significantly improves the accuracy and interpretability of predictions. 4) Segmented Polynomial Interpretation (SPI): The SPI method translates machine learning predictions into piecewise polynomial equations. These equations are physically interpretable and can be directly integrated into existing engineering workflows and safety analyses. 5) Front-End Interfaces: The code includes both a Jupyter notebook interface for research development and a Streamlit web application for operational deployment. These interfaces allow users to interactively explore decay heat predictions, adjust operational parameters, and visualize results in real-time. 6) Applications: The framework supports various applications, including safety system validation and spent fuel container optimization. It enables real-time evaluation of worst-case decay heat scenarios, informing the design of passive safety systems and optimizing container designs for long-term storage. Overall, this code provides a robust, accurate, and user-friendly tool for predicting decay heat in MSRs, enhancing reactor safety, and optimizing spent fuel management.

Retamales, Mauricio Eduardo Tano [Idaho National L↗

Probabilistic Modeling of the Renal Stone Formation Module

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a probabilistic tool, used in mission planning decision making and medical systems risk assessments. The IMM project maintains a database of over 80 medical conditions that could occur during a spaceflight, documenting an incidence rate and end case scenarios for each. In some cases, where observational data are insufficient to adequately define the inflight medical risk, the IMM utilizes external probabilistic modules to model and estimate the event likelihoods. One such medical event of interest is an unpassed renal stone. Due to a high salt diet and high concentrations of calcium in the blood (due to bone depletion caused by unloading in the microgravity environment) astronauts are at a considerable elevated risk for developing renal calculi (nephrolithiasis) while in space. Lack of observed incidences of nephrolithiasis has led HRP to initiate the development of the Renal Stone Formation Module (RSFM) to create a probabilistic simulator capable of estimating the likelihood of symptomatic renal stone presentation in astronauts on exploration missions. The model consists of two major parts. The first is the probabilistic component, which utilizes probability distributions to assess the range of urine electrolyte parameters and a multivariate regression to transform estimated crystal density and size distributions to the likelihood of the presentation of nephrolithiasis symptoms. The second is a deterministic physical and chemical model of renal stone growth in the kidney developed by Kassemi et al. The probabilistic component of the renal stone model couples the input probability distributions describing the urine chemistry, astronaut physiology, and system parameters with the physical and chemical outputs and inputs to the deterministic stone growth model. These two parts of the model are necessary to capture the uncertainty in the likelihood estimate. The model will be driven by Monte Carlo simulations, continuously randomly sampling the probability distributions of the electrolyte concentrations and system parameters that are inputs into the deterministic model. The total urine chemistry concentrations are used to determine the urine chemistry activity using the Joint Expert Speciation System (JESS), a biochemistry model. Information used from JESS is then fed into the deterministic growth model. Outputs from JESS and the deterministic model are passed back to the probabilistic model where a multivariate regression is used to assess the likelihood of a stone forming and the likelihood of a stone requiring clinical intervention. The parameters used to determine to quantify these risks include: relative supersaturation (RS) of calcium oxalate, citrate/calcium ratio, crystal number density, total urine volume, pH, magnesium excretion, maximum stone width, and ureteral location. Methods and Validation: The RSFM is designed to perform a Monte Carlo simulation to generate probability distributions of clinically significant renal stones, as well as provide an associated uncertainty in the estimate. Initially, early versions will be used to test integration of the components and assess component validation and verification (V&V), with later versions used to address questions regarding design reference mission scenarios. Once integrated with the deterministic component, the credibility assessment of the integrated model will follow NASA STD 7009 requirements.

kidney stones↗

Process-oriented stochastic perturbations applied to the parametrization of turbulence and shallow convection for ensemble prediction

Weather forecasting nowadays often requires some estimation of uncertainties associated with the output of meteorological models, in order to better inform decision making, especially in the context of intense weather events. Ensemble prediction systems provide such information through sets of possible scenarios which are designed to represent various uncertainty sources, including model uncertainties. A wide variety of methods have been proposed to estimate model uncertainties, among which perturbation methods targeting uncertain processes are a promising research field. Here, we focus on the representation of small-scale variability by process-oriented perturbation schemes applied to two key physical processes, namely turbulence and shallow convection. The perturbations are applied to a single-column version of the convection-permitting AROME model, in three idealized boundary-layer cases. Large-eddy simulations (LESs) of the same cases serve as a reference for the subgrid variability that has to be represented, and the results are also compared to those given by the Stochastically Perturbed Parametrization Tendencies (SPPT) method, which is a method commonly used by weather forecast centres to represent model uncertainty. The spread produced by our process-oriented perturbations of turbulence and shallow convection does not represent all the small-scale variability implied by the LESs for temperature and humidity. However, it is of a similar order of magnitude for the wind, thanks to perturbations generated by the stochastic turbulence scheme. The dispersion is structurally different from what is obtained with SPPT. It is non-negligible in the lower levels, where SPPT perturbations are usually suppressed because of numerical instabilities, indicating a possible complementarity between the schemes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evolution of Microstructure and Surface Characteristics of FeCrAl alloys when Subjected to Flow Boiling Testing

FeCrAl alloys are candidate materials for manufacturing accident-tolerant fuel (ATF) cladding intended for light water reactors to increase fuel reliability and safety during design-basis and beyond-design-basis accident scenarios. The evolution of the materials' surface characteristics, microstructure, and mechanical properties when exposed to the Critical Heat Flux (CHF) in flow boiling testing is crucial for safety analysis while providing insights into their thermal-hydraulic performance in nuclear reactors. After CHF, the surface chemistry of two FeCrAl alloys, APMT and C26M, was studied to understand their evolution at the early stage of high-temperature excursions in short time periods. The results indicated a thin layer composed of oxides and hydroxides of Al, Cr, and Fe with varying proportions at different depths in the layer, as indicated by X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and depth profiling. The cross-sections prepared by focused ion beam (FIB) revealed the growth of an oxide layer, in the range of 90-180 nm thick, on the alloys' surfaces. The evolution of the materials' surface chemistry also led to a noticeable post CHF excursion increase in their wettability, with a slight increase in roughness. Further, the investigation of the materials' mechanical properties indicated a modest increase in hardness by 10-15% as well as an increase in their yield strength, as evidenced by the microindentation and ring compression tests conducted before and after CHF testing. Scanning electron Microscopy (SEM) and X-ray diffraction (XRD) were used to investigate microstructural features of the materials and their changes after CHF treatment.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Computational model development and validation of fuel dispersal phenomena

As the US nuclear industry is renewing efforts to extend the rod average burnup limits in existing pressurized water reactors, it becomes imperative to investigate the safety implications associated with high burnup fuel fragmentation and the potential dispersal of fragmented fuel into the reactor coolant system. Additionally, as there is a growing interest in transitioning to new nuclear fuel designs to accommodate higher fuel burnup levels, it becomes essential to conduct studies on fuel behavior during design basis accident scenarios, particularly during a postulated loss-of-coolant accident, in order to ensure the safe operation of light-water reactors. The present study develops a computational model to simulate the complex three-phase flow of the fuel dispersal phenomena that occur following a breach in the cladding, when the stream of solid fuel particles and carrier fission gas stream may interact with the surrounding liquid medium. Furthermore, the proposed framework considers the solid phase as discrete Lagrangian particles while the interpenetrating gas–liquid continuum is modeled using a Eulerian framework. The developed simulation framework is validated with experimental results performed in a separate-effect test facility by comparing predicted particle settlement locations with the experimental observations reported in the literature. Key highlights of this study include the interpretation of the high-pressure boundary conditions and the three-phase flow coupling strategy. Also discussed are the gas–liquid hydrodynamics and the behavior of particles as they are transported through the gas and liquid phases.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Integrated Effects of Site Hydrology and Vegetation on Exchange Fluxes and Nutrient Cycling at a Coastal Terrestrial‐Aquatic Interface

Abstract The complex interactions among soil, vegetation, and site hydrologic conditions driven by precipitation and tidal cycles control the biogeochemical transformations and bi‐directional exchange of carbon and nutrients across the terrestrial–aquatic interfaces (TAIs) in coastal regions. This study uses a highly mechanistic model, Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS)‐PFLOTRAN, to explore how these interactions affect exchanges of materials and carbon and nitrogen cycling. We used a transect in the Chesapeake Bay region that spans zones of open water, coastal wetland, transition, and upland forest. We designed several simulation scenarios to parse the effects of the individual controlling factors and the sensitivity of carbon cycling to reaction rate parameters derived from laboratory experiments. Our simulations reveal an active zone for carbon cycling under the transition zones between the wetland and the upland. Evapotranspiration is found to enhance the exchange fluxes between the surface and subsurface domains, resulting in a higher dissolved oxygen concentration in the TAIs. The transport of organic carbon derived from plant leaves and roots provide an additional source of organic carbon needed for the aerobic respiration and denitrification processes in the TAIs. The variability in reaction rate parameters associated with microbial activities is also found to play a dominant role in controlling the heterogeneity and dynamics of the simulated redox conditions. This modeling‐focused exploratory study enabled us to better understand the complex interactions among soil, water and microbes that govern the hydro‐biogeochemical processes at the TAIs, which is an important step toward representing coastal ecosystems in larger‐scale Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Achievement of highly radiating plasma in negative triangularity and effect of reactor-relevant seeded impurities on confinement and transport

The first achievement of highly radiating plasmas in negative triangularity (NT) is shown with an operational space featuring high core radiation at high Greenwald fraction obtained with the injection of reactor-relevant seeded gases. These NT shape diverted discharges reach high values of normalized plasma pressure ( β N > 2) at high radiation fraction with no edge localized modes (ELMs) and a simultaneous reduction of the divertor heat flux. Here, we demonstrate that as long as the impurity level in the core is kept low to avoid excessive fuel dilution and impurity accumulation, integration of NT configuration with high radiation fraction not only is achievable but it can lead to confinement improvement with stabilization effects originating from collisionality, E × B shear and profiles changes due to impurity radiation cooling. The underlying physics mechanism is robust and reproducible and holds for a variety of impurity species. The absence of the requirement to stay in H-mode translates in a higher core radiation fraction potentially allowed in NT shape effectively mitigating the power exhaust issue. The results presented here demonstrate a path to high performance, ELM free and highly radiative regime with reactor-relevant seeding gases making this regime a potential new scenario for reactor design.

confinement improvement↗

Saturation of fishbone instability through zonal flows driven by energetic particle transport in tokamak plasmas

Gyrokinetic and kinetic-MHD simulations are performed for the fishbone instability in the DIII-D discharge #178631, chosen for validation of first-principles simulations to predict the energetic particle (EP) transport in an ITER prefusion baseline scenario. Fishbone modes are found to generate zonal flows, which dominate the fishbone saturation. The underlying mechanisms of the two-way fishbone-zonal flows nonlinear interplay are discussed in details. Numerical and analytical analyses identify the fishbone-induced EP redistribution as the dominant generation mechanism for zonal flows. The zonal flows modify the nonlinear dynamics of phase space zonal structures, which reduces the amount of EPs able to resonate with the mode, leading to an early fishbone saturation. Simulation results including zonal flows agree quantitatively with DIII-D experimental measurements of the fishbone saturation amplitude and EP transport, supporting this novel saturation mechanism by self- generated zonal flows. Moreover, the wave-particle mode-locking mechanism is shown to determine quantitatively the fishbone frequency down-chirping, as evident in GTC simulation results in agreement with predictions from analytical theory. Finally, the
fishbone-induced zonal flows are possibly responsible for the formation of an ion-ITB in the DIII-D discharge. Based on the low EP transport and the large zonal flow shearing rates associated with the fishbone instability in gyrokinetic simulations of the ITER scenario, it is conjectured that high performance scenarios could be designed in ITER burning plasmas through fishbone-induced ITBs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The Value of Increased HVDC Capacity Between Eastern and Western U.S. Grids: The Interconnections Seam Study

The Interconnections Seam Study examines the potential economic value of increasing electricity transfer between the Eastern and Western Interconnections using high-voltage direct-current (HVDC) transmission and cost-optimizing both generation and transmission resources across the United States, proposing, assessing, justifying, and illustrating a major infrastructure change involving two of the worlds largest power grids. The study conducted a multi-model analysis that used co-optimized generation and transmission expansion planning and production cost modeling. Four transmission designs under eight scenarios were developed and studied to estimate costs and potential benefits. The results show benefit-to-cost ratios that reach as high as 2.5, indicating significant value to increasing the transmission capacity between the interconnections under the cases considered, realized through sharing generation resources and flexibility across regions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗