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At least 253 records · Page 14

Stockpile Stewardship and Nuclear Testing: A Technical Assessment

Since 1992, the United States has retained confidence in its nuclear weapon stockpile without performing any tests that produce nuclear yield. Instead, it has invested in a stockpile stewardship program (SSP) based on the same approach that was validated through fifty years of experience during the nuclear testing era. As the test moratorium continues and new information becomes available, it is both necessary and appropriate to periodically revisit the question of whether or not nuclear testing should resume. In a recent article by Dr. Mark Schneider, he asserts that the United States should return to nuclear testing to address the issues that negatively affect our country’s nuclear deterrent. A serious, technically informed evaluation of the most significant of the issues Dr. Schneider has raised is provided in this paper. The conclusion of this evaluation is that the strategy of a well-funded SSP coupled with rigorous assessments to identify if there is a specific need for a nuclear test is sound and cost-effective approach. Any decision otherwise needs to take into careful consideration all the classified SSP successes and data pertaining to the particular issues in question.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Watching for light: An enterprise roadmap for trustworthy laser threat warning (LTW) to protect national assets

Comprehensive space force protection must include effective and trustworthy laser threat warning (LTW). Effective LTW will detect and characterize threats to space assets and thus enhance space deterrence. LTW must be trustworthy: able to categorize threats and non-threats by being both sensitive to true events and resistant to false alarms. Outside of the laboratory, the statistics and even the roles of lasers become unclear. In the chain of events leading to an attack, the laser may be the last link to be understood. Human situational awareness and informal reasoning must blend statistics with circumstantial evidence to visualize these chains before they are clear. This paper sets out an industrial model for an enterprise that will routinely produce trustworthy LTW. By incorporating psychology and economics, this enterprise can overcome the difficulties and perils of cooperation in networked defense and intelligence. This roadmap suggests how the enterprise can incentivize distracted actors with different goals to share what they know and coordinate what they do.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Risks to the DOW Mission From Global Advanced Energy Adoption

Advanced energy technologies have the potential to enhance energy security and resilience; however, they can introduce new vulnerabilities even as they mitigate existing ones. This dichotomy highlights that both action and inaction carry strategic risks in a contested and logistically complex operating environment. Regardless of U.S. civilian or military adoption of such technologies, key allies and adversaries are on adoption paths that will impact the U.S. military at the tactical, operational, and strategic level. The global adoption of advanced energy technologies presents the potential for both positive and negative consequences for U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) missions in the next 10-20 years. Three categories of risk drivers are presented in this analysis: infrastructure-related, adoption-related, and response-related. Each risk type can generate consequences for DOD, including power disruptions, suboptimal DOD mission performance and operational effectiveness, higher costs and shortages for both legacy and advanced energy technologies, and loss of U.S. influence and strategic deterrent value. Specific impacts could include tactical impacts, operational impacts, and strategic impacts. Mitigation strategies could include energy resource and technology planning, cybersecurity, supply chain resilience, workforce development, exercises and simulations, investments in commercialized technology, operational testing and pilot programs, research into emerging technologies, partnerships and working groups, common standards, budget planning, and repurposing infrastructure.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A User-Centered Design Exploration of Factors That Influence the Rideshare Experience

The rise of real-time information communication through smartphones and wireless networks enabled the growth of ridesharing services. While personal rideshare services (individuals riding alone or with acquaintances) initially dominated the market, the popularity of pooled ridesharing (individuals sharing rides with people they do not know) has grown globally. However, pooled ridesharing remains less common in the U.S., where personal vehicle usage is still the norm. Vehicle design and rideshare services may need to be tailored to user preferences to increase pooled rideshare adoption. Based on a large, national U.S. survey (N = 5385), the results of exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses suggested that four key factors influence riders’ willingness to consider pooled ridesharing: comfort/ease of use, convenience, vehicle technology/accessibility, and passenger safety. A binomial logistic regression was conducted to determine how the four factors influence one’s willingness to consider pooled ridesharing. The two factors that positively influence riders’ willingness to consider pooled ridesharing are vehicle technology/accessibility (B = 1.10) and convenience (B = 0.94), while lack of passenger safety (B = –0.63) and comfort/ease of use (B = –0.17) are pooled ridesharing deterrents. Understanding user-centered design and service factors are critical to increase the use of pooled ridesharing services in the future.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Women as a Force Multiplier for Bringing Nuclear Forensic Capabilities to the International Stage

In 2009, the US Department of Energy National Nuclear Security Administration’s (NNSA’s) Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation Program initiated a new nuclear forensics outreach effort under its Confidence Building Measures Program. Little did they know that the timing could not have been better. This article focuses on the early years (2009–2015) of the NNSA’s international nuclear forensics outreach, specifically the efforts and experiences of the women who helped establish this program, building it from a fledgling, bilateral effort into an enduring technical capacity provider engaging with dozens of countries and multilateral organizations. At the onset of the program, nuclear forensics was an emerging priority within the US Government and receiving increased focus from international organizations through high-level diplomatic efforts such as the Nuclear Security Summit and Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism. Additionally, working-level initiatives were gaining traction through the International Atomic Energy Agency and the Nuclear Forensics International Technical Working Group. Over the next 6 years, a small team comprising a uniquely large number of women NNSA federal, contract, and national laboratory staff served as key leaders engaging with the international community to strengthen global technical nuclear forensics capacity and best practices. The program continues today under the Nuclear Smuggling Detection and Deterrence Program as Investigation Support. The experiences shared here detail a unique time period when the new technical discipline of nuclear forensics was beginning to mature and gain international traction. The authors have made every effort to remember history correctly and be as inclusive as possible. A wealth of training, guidance, and exercise documentation was developed in the 2009–2015 time frame, much of which still serves as the foundation for today’s even more extensive program and community of dedicated technical and diplomatic practitioners.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

MORS Phalax Ad for Systems Analysis

At Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, applying cutting-edge science and technology to challenging security questions is an everyday thing. Systems Analysis is one way we solve problems—by bringing analytic rigor to missions like strategic deterrence and critical infrastructure defense. Working with the brightest minds in science, technology, and engineering, systems analysts at LLNL bring state-of-the-art analytic tools to bear on problems of national importance. From ensuring the safety, security, and effectiveness of our nation’s nuclear stockpile to shaping the future of inertial fusion energy—if you have a penchant for problem-solving using modeling and analysis tools—we have a place for you.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Composites - Lighter and cheaper.

Composite engineering materials have two distinct parts, including the load-bearing filaments and the matrix. Fibers can range from glass to boron and graphite. Matrix constituents include epoxies for lower temperatures and metals for higher temperatures. Composites appear as tape or combined with metal in structural shapes. The increased use of composites will reduce over-all per pound manufacturing costs. Two major deterrents to further application of composites in advanced commercial transports include a shortage of cost-effective structural design concepts and a lack of confidence in the life characteristics. A program has been outlined by NASA that will, if implemented, provide considerable in-service life experience with structural components on commercial transports.

Goble, R. L.↗

The application of ERTS imagery to mapping snow cover in the western United States

The author has identified the following significant results. In much of the western United States a large part of the utilized water comes from accumulated mountain snowpacks; thus, accurate measurements of snow distributions are required for input to streamflow prediction models. The application of ERTS-1 imagery for mapping snow has been evaluated for two geographic areas, the Salt-Verde watershed in central Arizona and the southern Sierra Nevada in California. Techniques have been developed to identify snow and to differentiate between snow and cloud. The snow extent for these two drainage areas has been mapped from the MSS-5 (0.6 - 0.7 microns) imagery and compared with aerial survey snow charts, aircraft photography, and ground-based snow measurements. The results indicate that ERTS imagery has substantial practical applications for snow mapping. Snow extent can be mapped from ERTS-1 imagery in more detail than is depicted on aerial survey snow charts. Moreover, in Arizona and southern California cloud obscuration does not appear to be a serious deterrent to the use of satellite data for snow survey. The costs involved in deriving snow maps from ERTS-1 imagery appear to be very reasonable in comparison with existing data collection methods.

Barnes, J. C.↗

The effect of Be/+/ ion implanted exponential and uniform impurity profiles on the electrical characteristics of GaAs solar cells

The high surface recombination velocity is the major deterrent to obtaining efficient GaAs solar cells. If, however, an electric field is built in at the surface, the carriers will be swept away from the surface thus minimizing the surface recombination velocity problem. It has been previously shown theoretically that an exponential impurity distribution in the doped region of the cell results in a built-in electric field. Ion implantation was used to produce solar cells with an exponential impurity profile and cells with uniform profiles. It is shown that cells with an exponential impurity profile have higher open-circuit voltage, fill factors, and spectral response than those with a uniform impurity profile.

Vaidyanathan, K. V.↗

Transportation and the handicapped

Some statistics on the handicapped in relation to transportation are considered, and some of the major deterrents to travel in our existing systems are outlined. Some of the benefits of enhanced mobility are identified and examples are given of minimizing travel barriers. Finally, some of DOT's activities that are directed toward improving transportation for the handicapped are outlined.

Richardson, H. H.↗

Program on State Agency Remote Sensing Data Management (SARSDM)

A planning study for developing a Missouri natural resources information system (NRIS) that combines satellite-derived data and other information to assist in carrying out key state tasks was conducted. Four focal applications -- dam safety, ground water supply monitoring, municipal water supply monitoring, and Missouri River basin modeling were identified. Major contributions of the study are: (1) a systematic choice and analysis of a high priority application (water resources) for a Missouri, LANDSAT-based information system; (2) a system design and implementation plan, based on Missouri, but useful for many other states; (3) an analysis of system costs, component and personnel requirements, and scheduling; and (4) an assessment of deterrents to successful technological innovation of this type in state government, and a system management plan, based on this assessment, for overcoming these obstacles in Missouri.

Eastwood, L. F., Jr.↗

Volcanism and soil mercury on Mars - Consequences for terrestrial microorganisms

An earth-Mars depletion formula proposed by Anders and Owen for volatiles is used to calculate a range of putative Hg levels for Martian volcanic soils based upon analyzed samples from Hawaii. The range is about 50-150 microgram per kg. When applied either in conventional or special media (e.g., basalt powder), these levels of Hg are effective inhibitors of the growth of earth microorganisms. Taken together with other hostile chemical and physical factors, volcanic toxicants would appear to provide a further deterrent to the accidental establishment of terrestrial microbiota on Mars.

Siegel, B. Z.↗

Chemicals from biomass - The U.S. prospects for the turn of the century

Historically, chemicals from biomass have been and are expected to be economical in three major areas: byproducts, specialty items and polymers. Assessments of producing major chemicals from biomass in a processing plant based on the available conversion techniques indicate that they are not economically attractive, with the possible exception of conversion to ammonia and ethanol. The deterrents are the heavy capital investments, dependability of raw material supply and transportation costs for large plants, lack of operation experience, inadaptability of market variations, and competition from petroleum and coal. More importantly, it is also shown that even if chemicals from biomass were economical today, the resultant savings in petroleum would be far less than those achieved through other options available for the utilization of biomass as fuel and structural material. Thus, it is concluded that near-term research and development must be toward improved conversion processes, recovery of valuable products from waste streams at existing plants, more efficient use of biomass of energy and more efficient production of superior material products.

Sarbolouki, M. N.↗

Freeze/Thaw Properties of Cellular Glass

Without moisture, temperature cycles do no harm. Experiments described in new report indicate inherent material variability greater deterrent to application of material than freeze/thaw effects.

Frickland, P. O.↗

Is structural interface standardization beneficial?

Factors applicable to fixed angle, large field and fixed angle, large building flat plate photovoltaic (PV) generator arrays are discussed in the context of standardization. It is concluded that structural interface standardization may be highly desirable in any one major project, but not at this time in the overall PV industry. Attempts to mandate such standardization will act as a deterrent to long-range improvements. In specific projects, structural standardization should be defined at the largest practical interface, leaving the maximum possible freedom to the module and array manufacturer. There is a corollary area, however, where detailed standards would benefit the industry; the matter of Standard Practices. Work being done towards definition of acceptable/desirable practices in materials, finishes, fastening and locking methods, grounding techniques, lightning protection, etc., and in handling the environmental ranges, should be continued.

Dombert, W. E.↗

The cost of landing man on Mars

In a period where the space program budget is generally static at about 1/3 of the level reached during the Apollo program, manned planetary flight is not considered by NASA planners to be a realistic near term goal. Much of NASA's current planning is based on the perception that manned planetary flight would be more costly than the Apollo lunar landing. This paper demonstrates that with current technological improvements in avionics, structure, and space transportation, the landing of an American on Mars would cost only 1/3 to 2/3 of the lunar landing; on a per capita basis such a program would cost less than $200, compared to Apollo's $325 (all dollars in 1981 base). Given the fact that a manned Mars landing is the last such exploration feat left to this generation, the cost should clearly not be a major deterrent.

Mandell, H. C., Jr.↗

Stellar lyman alpha emission and the local interstellar medium

Under the auspices of this ADP program, a systematic study was made of IUE archival images in order to extract spectra of the Lyman alpha region and to measure the stellar Lyman alpha flux for as many late-type stars as possible. The Lyman alpha resonance line is a powerful cooling channel for the hot chromospheres of solar-type stars, but has not been studied before in any systematic fashion across the H-R diagram. A major deterrent which has limited the use of Lyman alpha in the study of stellar chromospheres is the contamination of this spectral feature caused by the scattering of solar Lyman alpha photons in the Earth's exosphere. This scattered light is monochromatically imaged through the entrance slot of the IUE telescope and is superposed onto the stellar spectrum. In all but the shortest exposures with IUE, this 'geocoronal emission' overwhelms the stellar flux and makes it impossible to directly measure the strength of the stellar chromospheric feature. The IUESIPS processing contains no provision for correcting standard G.O. output products for this contamination. The first task was to develop a scheme for removing the geocoronal flux, specifically from low-dispersion spectra taken with the Short-Wavelength Camera of IUE. The strategy adopted was to fit a 'sky model' to the spatially-resolved geocoronal emission observed through the large science aperture of the telescope, using the spectral orders on either side of the central ones where the stellar emission is concentrated. The model emission was then subtracted from the observed image, leaving behind the corrected stellar Lyman alpha emission. The details of this fitting procedure are described. Having devised a successful method for removing the unwanted geocoronal emission, the correction procedure was applied to 366 archival images which, from inspection of the photowrites in the IUE browse file, seemed especially promising. In this survey, Lyman alpha emission were eventually detected in the spectra of 227 stars representing a wide range in age, temperature, and luminosity throughout the cool half of the H-R diagram. Previously fewer than 30 such stars had been measured, and an order of magnitude increase in the numbers of stars having Lyman alpha flux measurements is provided. Multiple measurements were made for 52 stars and upper limits on chromospheric flux were derived for another 48 stars.

Simon, Theodore↗

Advances in direct oxidation methanol fuel cells

Fuel cells that can operate directly on fuels such as methanol are attractive for low to medium power applications in view of their low weight and volume relative to other power sources. A liquid feed direct methanol fuel cell has been developed based on a proton exchange membrane electrolyte and Pt/Ru and Pt catalyzed fuel and air/O2 electrodes, respectively. The cell has been shown to deliver significant power outputs at temperatures of 60 to 90 C. The cell voltage is near 0.5 V at 300 mA/cm(exp 2) current density and an operating temperature of 90 C. A deterrent to performance appears to be methanol crossover through the membrane to the oxygen electrode. Further improvements in performance appear possible by minimizing the methanol crossover rate.

Surampudi, S.↗