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DOE OSTI2025

Strong, ductile, and hierarchical hetero-lamellar-structured alloys through microstructural inheritance and refinement

The strength−ductility trade-off exists ubiquitously, especially in brittle intermetallic-containing multiple principal element alloys (MPEAs), where the intermetallic phases often induce premature failure leading to severe ductility reduction. Hierarchical heterogeneities represent a promising microstructural solution to achieve simultaneous strength−ductility enhancement. However, it remains fundamentally challenging to tailor hierarchical heterostructures using conventional methods, which often rely on costly and time-consuming processing. Here, we report a multiscale microstructural inheritance and refinement strategy to process “structural hierarchy precursors” in as-cast heterogeneous Al 0.7 CoCrFeNi MPEAs, which lead directly to a hierarchical hetero-lamellar structure (HLS) after simple rolling and annealing. Interestingly, it takes only 10 min of annealing time, two orders of magnitude less than that required to render the state-of-the-art properties during conventional processing of Al 0.7 CoCrFeNi, for us to achieve record-high strength−ductility combinations via the hierarchical HLS design that sequentially stimulates multiple unusual deformation and reinforcement mechanisms. In particular, the HLS-enabled high hetero-deformation-induced (HDI) internal stress triggers profuse <111>-type dislocations on over five independent slip systems in the supposedly brittle intermetallic phase and activates extensive stacking faults (SFs) and nanotwinning in the adjoining soft phase with a rather high SF energy. These unexpected, dynamically reinforcing hetero-deformation mechanisms across multiple length scales facilitate high sustained HDI strain hardening, along with a salient microcrack-mediated extrinsic ductilization effect, suggesting that the proposed microstructural inheritance and refinement strategy provides an efficient, fast, and low-cost approach to overcome the strength−ductility trade-off in a broad range of structural materials.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Annihilation-limited long-range exciton transport in high-mobility conjugated copolymer films

A combination of ultrafast, long-range, and low-loss excitation energy transfer from the photoreceptor location to a functionally active site is essential for cost-effective polymeric semiconductors. Delocalized electronic wavefunctions along π-conjugated polymer (CP) backbone can enable efficient intrachain transport, while interchain transport is generally thought slow and lossy due to weak chain–chain interactions. In contrast to the conventional strategy of mitigating structural disorder, amorphous layers of rigid CPs, exemplified by highly planar poly(indacenodithiophene-co-benzothiadiazole) (IDT-BT) donor-accepter copolymer, exhibit trap-free transistor performance and charge-carrier mobilities similar to amorphous silicon. Here, we report long-range exciton transport in HJ -aggregated IDTBT thin-film, in which the competing exciton transport and exciton–exciton annihilation (EEA) dynamics are spectroscopically separated using a phase-cycling-based scheme and shown to depart from the classical diffusion-limited and strong-coupling regime. In the thin film, we find an annihilation-limited mechanism with ≪100% per-encounter annihilation probability, facilitating the minimization of EEA-induced excitation losses. In contrast, excitons on isolated IDTBT chains diffuse over 350 nm with 0.56 cm 2 s −1 diffusivity, before eventually annihilating with unit probability on first contact. We complement the pump–probe studies with temperature-dependent photocurrent and EEA measurements from 295 K to 77 K and find a remarkable correspondence of annihilation rate and photocurrent activation energies in the 140 K to 295 K temperature range.

Shi, Yuping (ORCID:0000000318289415)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Time-tagging data acquisition system for testing superconducting electronics based on an RFSoC and custom analog frontend

Novel electronic devices can often be operated in a plethoraof ways, which makes testing circuits comprised of them difficult.Often, no single tool can simultaneously analyze the operatingmargins, maximum speed, and failure modes of a circuit, particularlywhen the intended behavior of subcomponents of the circuit is notstandardized. This work demonstrates a cost-effective time-domaindata acquisition system for electronic circuits that enables moreintricate verification techniques than are practical withconventional experimental setups. We use high-speeddigital-to-analog converters and real-timemulti-gigasample-per-second waveform processing to push experimentalcircuits beyond their maximum operating speed. Our customtime-tagging data capture firmware reduces memory requirements andcan be used to determine when errors occur. The firmware iscombined with a thermal-noise-limited analog frontend with50 dB of dynamic range. Compared to currentlyavailable commercial test equipment that is seven times moreexpensive, this data acquisition system was able to operate asuperconducting shift register at a nearly three-times-higher clockfrequency (200 MHz vs. 80 MHz).

Foster, Reed A. [MIT] (ORCID:0000000231002127)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Experiments and Simulations of the Dusty Properties of Hypervelocity Impact Plasmas

Hypervelocity impacts, referring to impacts occurring at several times the speed of sound in the target, result in inertial stresses greatly exceeding the material strength and produce behavior that is not fully understood. These impact phenomena are seen in space through impacts of orbital debris and meteoroids on spacecraft and airless natural bodies but can also be produced in laboratory environments using light-gas guns and electrostatic dust accelerators. When a hypervelocity impact occurs, plasma is generated both from thermal ionization and from pressure ionization, producing a wide range of plasma densities depending on the impactor’s velocity. This plasma is initially formed in the warm dense matter (WDM) regime and governed by high energy density (HED) hydrodynamics before it rapidly expands and dissipates, spanning many orders of magnitude in density and length scale. The plasma can also contain a dust component, which is particularly relevant for the lower-velocity range of hypervelocity impacts with parameters that are particularly relevant to Tokamak plasmas. Therefore, the properties and dynamics of these plasmas cannot be fully characterized without considering dusty plasma effects, which are ubiquitous but poorly understood.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

deadtrees.earth — An open-access and interactive database for centimeter-scale aerial imagery to uncover global tree mortality dynamics

Excessive tree mortality is a global concern and remains poorly understood as it is a complex phenomenon. We lack global and temporally continuous coverage on tree mortality data. Ground-based observations on tree mortality, e.g., derived from national inventories, are very sparse, and may not be standardized or spatially explicit. Earth observation data, combined with supervised machine learning, offer a promising approach to map overstory tree mortality in a consistent manner over space and time. However, global-scale machine learning requires broad training data covering a wide range of environmental settings and forest types. Low altitude observation platforms (e.g., drones or airplanes) provide a cost-effective source of training data by capturing high-resolution orthophotos of overstory tree mortality events at centimeter-scale resolution. Here, we introduce deadtrees.earth, an open-access platform hosting more than two thousand centimeter-resolution orthophotos, covering more than 1,000,000 ha, of which more than 58,000 ha are manually annotated with live/dead tree classifications. This community-sourced and rigorously curated dataset can serve as a comprehensive reference dataset to uncover tree mortality patterns from local to global scales using space-based Earth observation data and machine learning models. This will provide the basis to attribute tree mortality patterns to environmental changes or project tree mortality dynamics to the future. The open nature of deadtrees.earth, together with its curation of high-quality, spatially representative, and ecologically diverse data will continuously increase our capacity to uncover and understand tree mortality dynamics.

Citizen science↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning the electric field response of condensed phase systems using perturbed neural network potentials

Abstract The interaction of condensed phase systems with external electric fields is of major importance in a myriad of processes in nature and technology, ranging from the field-directed motion of cells (galvanotaxis), to geochemistry and the formation of ice phases on planets, to field-directed chemical catalysis and energy storage and conversion systems including supercapacitors, batteries and solar cells. Molecular simulation in the presence of electric fields would give important atomistic insight into these processes but applications of the most accurate methods such as ab-initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) are limited in scope by their computational expense. Here we introduce Perturbed Neural Network Potential Molecular Dynamics (PNNP MD) to push back the accessible time and length scales of such simulations. We demonstrate that important dielectric properties of liquid water including the field-induced relaxation dynamics, the dielectric constant and the field-dependent IR spectrum can be machine learned up to surprisingly high field strengths of about 0.2 V Å −1 without loss in accuracy when compared to ab-initio molecular dynamics. This is remarkable because, in contrast to most previous approaches, the two neural networks on which PNNP MD is based are exclusively trained on molecular configurations sampled from zero-field MD simulations, demonstrating that the networks not only interpolate but also reliably extrapolate the field response. PNNP MD is based on rigorous theory yet it is simple, general, modular, and systematically improvable allowing us to obtain atomistic insight into the interaction of a wide range of condensed phase systems with external electric fields.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Abstracts of the 2025 51st Annual NATAS Conference

The North American Thermal Analysis Society (NATAS) is pleased to announce its 51st Annual Conference, held jointly with the IX International Baekeland Symposium. This premier event unites scientists, practitioners, and students from academia, industry, and government to explore the forefront of materials science. The NATAS conference provides a dynamic forum for attendees to delve into the latest advancements in thermal analysis, rheology, and materials characterization. The technical program will highlight new developments in instrumentation and software, alongside practical applications across a wide range of industries. Concurrently, the Baekeland Symposium will showcase cutting-edge scientific, technical, and industrial innovations in the field of high-performance thermosetting polymers. The synergy of this joint meeting creates a unique platform for cross-disciplinary collaboration, fostering the exchange of novel ideas and sparking new research opportunities. Featuring technical presentations, poster sessions, and plenary lectures from renowned experts and emerging graduate students, the conference offers an ideal environment for networking and professional development. We invite you to join us to discover state-of-the-art techniques, discuss groundbreaking research, and connect with peers and leaders in the thermal and materials community.

batteries↗

DOE OSTI2025

Effects of Strain and Strain Rate on Dynamic Grain Growth and Subgrain Evolution During Plastic Deformation of an Interstitial-Free Steel at 850 ° C

Here, the effects of strain and strain rate on dynamic grain growth (DGG) and subgrain evolution are reported for an interstitial-free steel deformed at 850 ° C. Microstructures produced during tension tests at true-strain rates of 10 -4 and to 10 -3 s -1 true strains ranging from 0.02 to 0.2 were preserved following deformation. These were characterized using electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD), including the application of spherical harmonic transform indexing to produce high-angular-resolution EBSD (HR-EBSD) data. HR-EBSD data resolved the small misorientation angles of subgrain boundaries while imaging much larger data fields than possible with previously available techniques. The resulting data confirmed that steady-state flow stress is inversely proportional to the average subgrain size and that subgrain boundary misorientation angle increases with strain. The following new observations are reported. The rate of DGG increased with respect to time but decreased with respect to strain as strain rate increased. This behavior is rationalized through a simple model using separate rate parameters for the effects of time and strain. Subgrain size was not constant during steady-state deformation, but decreased slowly with increasing strain. Subgrain size distributions and subgrain boundary misorientation angle distributions were measured, and both remained approximately log-normal during steady-state deformation. Subgrain evolution demonstrated no dependence on parent grain size, crystallographic orientation, or Taylor factor. These new data suggest that steady-state flow stress is more likely controlled by the dislocation density internal to subgrains than by the spacing between subgrain boundaries.

dynamic grain growth↗

DOE OSTI2024

A possible misaligned orbit for the young planet AU Mic c

ABSTRACT The AU Microscopii planetary system is only 24 Myr old, and its geometry may provide clues about the early dynamical history of planetary systems. Here, we present the first measurement of the Rossiter–McLaughlin effect for the warm sub-Neptune AU Mic c, using two transits observed simultaneously with the European Southern Observatory's (ESO's) Very Large Telescope (VLT)/Echelle SPectrograph for Rocky Exoplanets and Stable Spectroscopic Observations (ESPRESSO), CHaracterising ExOPlanet Satellite (CHEOPS), and Next-Generation Transit Survey (NGTS). After correcting for flares and for the magnetic activity of the host star, and accounting for transit-timing variations, we find the sky-projected spin–orbit angle of planet c to be in the range $\lambda _{\mathrm{c}}=67.8_{-49.0}^{+31.7}$ degrees (1$\sigma$). We examine the possibility that planet c is misaligned with respect to the orbit of the inner planet b ($\lambda _{\mathrm{b}}=-2.96_{-10.30}^{+10.44}$), and the equatorial plane of the host star, and discuss scenarios that could explain both this and the planet’s high density, including secular interactions with other bodies in the system or a giant impact. We note that a significantly misaligned orbit for planet c is in some degree of tension with the dynamical stability of the system, and with the fact that we see both planets in transit, though these arguments alone do not preclude such an orbit. Further observations would be highly desirable to constrain the spin–orbit angle of planet c more precisely.

Yu, H. (ORCID:0000000209716078)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Nitrogen dynamics and physiological N use efficiency in high‐biomass sorghum

Improving nitrogen (N) efficiency is essential for sustainable high-biomass sorghum ( Sorghum bicolor L. Moench) production. This study evaluated leaf and stem N dynamics, canopy N remobilization, and physiological nitrogen use efficiency (pNUE) in two photoperiod-sensitive sorghum hybrids under two N rates (0 and 168 kg-N ha −1 ) across multiple environments in Texas and Illinois. Leaf N concentrations increased with plant height in the canopy with steeper gradients under low-N conditions, indicating enhanced N remobilization when N is limited. Stem tissue showed less variation in N concentration across canopy nodal positions, with within-plant differences ranging from 1.2 to 7.6 g kg −1 , compared to 3.1 to 16.3 g kg −1 in leaves. While pNUE was generally higher under unfertilized conditions, it varied largely by site; however, genotypic differences were minimal within the given year. These results highlight the importance of integrating environmental and management factors into breeding and fertilization strategies to enhance N efficiency in high-biomass sorghum.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Synthetic active liquid crystals powered by acoustic waves.

Active nematic materials combine orientational order with activity at the microscopic level. Current experimental realizations of active nematics include vibrating elongated particles, cell layers, suspensions of elongated bacteria, and a mixture of bio-filaments with molecular motors. The majority of active nematics are of biological origin. The realization of a fully synthetic active liquid crystal comprised of a lyotropic chromonic liquid crystal energized by ultrasonic waves, is reported. This synthetic active liquid crystal is free from biological degradation and variability, exhibits phenomenology associated with active nematics, and enables precise and rapid activity control over a significantly extended range. It is demonstrated that the energy of the acoustic field is converted into microscopic extensile stresses disrupting long-range nematic order and giving rise to an undulation instability and proliferation of topological defects. The emergence of unconventional free-standing persistent vortices in the nematic director field at high activity levels is revealed. The results provide a foundation for the design of externally energized active liquid crystals with stable material properties and tunable topological defect dynamics crucial for the realization of reconfigurable microfluidic systems.

active matter↗

DOE OSTI2026

California Price Response Potential Study

California's energy landscape is undergoing a significant transformation, driven by the increasing integration of renewable energy sources, the increased adoption of distributed energy resources, the electrification of end-use loads, and the growing need for grid efficiency. To address these challenges, recent revisions to the State’s Load Management Standards (LMS) require all of California’s large utilities and community choice aggregators (CCAs) to offer dynamic electricity pricing options to customers by 2027. Dynamic pricing, which involves varying electricity rates based on real-time supply and demand conditions, offers a promising solution for optimizing grid operations, reducing costs, and incentivizing efficient use of grid capacity. Effective implementation of dynamic pricing requires understanding the potential impacts on customer bills, system load, and the cost-effectiveness of automation technologies. This study aims to evaluate the load response of various end-use devices to hourly dynamic prices. The end-uses studied here are space cooling, space heating, water heating, crop irrigation, pool and spa pumps, and electric vehicle (EV) charging, all for both residential and commercial applications, except for crop irrigation. In 2030, these end uses are forecasted to account for 18% of annual electricity demand in the state, but 40% of demand in the peak net load hour. By modeling possible price-responsive load dispatch algorithms and assessing the resulting impacts on both individual bills and the overall grid, we seek to inform policymakers and utilities about the potential benefits and challenges associated with dynamic pricing, and considerations for the design of dynamic pricing tariffs. Additionally, we will explore the cost effectiveness of adopting automation technologies to enable devices to respond more effectively to real-time price signals. This study considers a range of price profiles, accounting for differences across utilities and customer classes, and presents scenarios for dynamic price design via variation in the percentage of total customer electric costs that are allocated dynamically (versus constituting a fixed portion of the hourly volumetric price). We present results focused primarily on 2030, forecasting electricity prices under both low and high-cost scenarios, to inform longer-term tariff design considerations. We design tariffs by starting with 2019 prices that were calculated according to CalFUSE guidance (CPUC, 2022) and that have been used in recent studies; these prices are all-in volumetric rates that vary by utility and are revenue-neutral to each customer class. They are developed by considering six electricity cost components that are allocated hourly based on system load indicators (gross and net load, and wholesale prices). These prices are forecasted to 2030 for low and high cost scenarios, considering recent trends in total electricity costs with and without years of substantial wildfire mitigation investments. These tariffs, which allocate all costs on an hourly basis, are considered our “Full” dynamic tariff design scenario, while two additional scenarios explore allocating a portion of costs as a flat volumetric charge: the “Medium” scenario allocates 50% of revenue dynamically (and keeps 50% flat), while the “Mild” scenario allocates 20% of revenue dynamically. The 20% dynamic allocation on the Mild scenario aims to represent a case where only the marginal operating costs of the grid are included in the dynamic price.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Along-Trajectory Acoustic Signal Variations Observed During the Hypersonic Re-Entry of the OSIRIS-REx Sample Return Capsule

The re-entry of the Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security-Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS-REx) sample return capsule (SRC) on 24 September 2023 presented a rare opportunity to study atmospheric entry dynamics through a dense network of ground-based infrasound sensors. As the first interplanetary capsule to re-enter over the United States since Stardust in 2006, this event allowed for unprecedented observations of infrasound signals generated during hypersonic descent. We deployed 39 single-sensor stations across Nevada and Utah, strategically distributed to capture signals from distinct trajectory points. Infrasound data were analyzed to examine how signal amplitude and period vary with altitude and propagation path for a nonablating hypersonic object with well-defined physical and aerodynamic properties. Raytracing simulations incorporated atmospheric specifications from the ground-2-space model to estimate source altitudes for observed signals. Results confirmed ballistic arrivals at all stations, with source altitudes ranging from 44 to 62 km along the trajectory. Signal period and amplitude exhibited strong dependence on source altitude, with higher altitudes corresponding to lower amplitudes, longer periods, and reduced high-frequency content. Regression analysis demonstrated strong correlations between signal characteristics and both altitude and propagation geometry. Our results suggest, when attenuation is considered, the amplitude is primarily determined by the source, with the propagation path playing a secondary role over the distances examined. These findings emphasize the utility of controlled SRC re-entries for advancing our understanding of natural meteoroid dynamics, refining atmospheric entry models, and improving methodologies for planetary defense. The OSIRIS-REx SRC campaign represents the most comprehensive infrasound study of a hypersonic re-entry to date, showcasing the potential of coordinated geophysical observational networks for high-energy atmospheric phenomena, including space debris re-entries.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mixed gain detector configurations for time-resolved X-ray solution scattering

X-ray detection at X-ray free-electron lasers is challenging in part due to the XFEL's extremely short and intense X-ray pulses. Experimental measurements are further complicated by the large fluctuations inherent to the self-amplified spontaneous emission process producing the X-rays. At the Linac Coherent Light Source the ePix10ka2M detector offers multiple gain modes, and auto-ranging between these, to increase the dynamic range while retaining low noise. For diffuse scattering techniques, such as time-resolved X-ray solution scattering, where the shape of the scattering pattern largely does not change between exposures, a fixed mix of different gain modes offers many of the same advantages as auto-ranging. We find that configuring individual ASICs in separate gain modes does not impact the intensity linearity of the gain response and has a limited effect on the effective dynamic range in regions with different gain mode settings while avoiding the complexities of auto-ranging. Small (<5%) non-linear gain contributions arise when pixels on the same ASIC are configured in different gain modes. We present a configuration scheme that is designed to select the optimal mixed gain configuration to minimize effects of saturation in the high-/medium-gain region, while maximizing the number of pixels with higher gain to improve the signal-to-noise ratio.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of Converter Performance Considering Static and Dynamic Device Part-to-Part Variability

This paper presents a methodology to incorporate and analyze the impact of semiconductor device part-to-part variation on power converter performance. By integrating extensive static and dynamic device characterization data with an automated compact model generation process that reflects manufacturing variability, device models with inherent variability features are utilized in converter simulations for a comprehensive assessment of performance impacts. The traditional converter performance evaluation process typically yields fixed efficiency values, often dismissing the inherent part-to-part variability caused by the manufacturing process of semiconductor devices. To address this limitation, a large population of devices was characterized to capture variations in static parameters-such as transfer, output, and capacitance characteristics-as well as dynamic behaviors, including switching losses. This data-driven approach enables the development of individual compact models, which were then integrated into converter simulations to evaluate efficiency ranges rather than single point estimated values. The converter simulation results show that part-to-part component variation can lead to significant efficiency deviations, exceeding several percentage points in high-power conversion applications. By offering a more accurate representation of converter behavior under real-world manufacturing conditions, this methodology enables designers to anticipate performance variability, improving the robustness of power converter designs.

device characterization↗

DOE OSTI2025

Development and characterization of an aerosol-generated multi-method analytical particle test material

Ceria (CeO 2 ) particles with low to ultra-low loading of nickel dopant were produced using an aerosol-based, droplet-to-particle synthesis via an in-line calcination technique. This aerosol-based synthesis method enables the production of particles with a monodisperse size distribution. These produced and well-characterized, multi-element, ceria-based particles demonstrate a material exemplar for multi-method analytical testing. They were prepared from a cerium nitrate feedstock where low loading nickel dopant was added at target Ni/(Ni + Ce) atomic percents of 1 %, 0.1 %, and 0.01 %, using a nickel nitrate spike. This methodology proved to produce ceria particles doped with a dynamic range of low to ultra-low loadings of nickel over a 24-h period, with consistent size distribution, morphology, and composition. The successful incorporation of nickel was demonstrated with bulk and single particle inductively coupled plasma mass spectroscopy and revealed notable particle-to-particle elemental homogeneity. X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy demonstrated the presence of a high concentration of nickel dopant incorporated preferentially toward the surface of the particles, and that this dopant aided oxidation of surface Ce(III) atoms to Ce(IV). These particle test materials were then validated through X-ray absorption near edge spectroscopy, comparing the ultra-low 0.01 % Ni and low 1 % Ni-doped ceria samples. This revealed a more-reduced oxidation state of the nickel with an increase in dopant concentration. Finally, this work demonstrates a synthesis and systematic characterization scheme to produce multi-method analytical test particulates.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Collective dynamics and long-range order in thermal neuristor networks

Abstract In the pursuit of scalable and energy-efficient neuromorphic devices, recent research has unveiled a novel category of spiking oscillators, termed “thermal neuristors.” These devices function via thermal interactions among neighboring vanadium dioxide resistive memories, emulating biological neuronal behavior. Here, we show that the collective dynamical behavior of networks of these neurons showcases a rich phase structure, tunable by adjusting the thermal coupling and input voltage. Notably, we identify phases exhibiting long-range order that, however, does not arise from criticality, but rather from the time non-local response of the system. In addition, we show that these thermal neuristor arrays achieve high accuracy in image recognition and time series prediction through reservoir computing, without leveraging long-range order. Our findings highlight a crucial aspect of neuromorphic computing with possible implications on the functioning of the brain: criticality may not be necessary for the efficient performance of neuromorphic systems in certain computational tasks.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Storms Are an Important Driver of Change in Tropical Forests

Tropical forest dynamics and composition have changed over recent decades, but the proximate drivers of these changes remain unclear. Investigations into these trends have focused on increasing drought stress, CO 2 , temperature, and fires, whereas convective storms are generally overlooked. We argue that existing literature provides clear support for the importance of storms as drivers of forest change. We reanalyze the largest plot-based study of tropical forest carbon dynamics to show that lightning frequency—an indicator of storm activity—strongly predicts forest carbon storage and residence time, and its inclusion improves model fit and weakens evidence for the effects of high temperatures. Convective storm activity has increased 5%–25% per decade over the past half century. Extrapolating from historic trends, we estimate that storms likely contribute ca. 50% of the reported increases in biomass mortality across Amazonia, with all realistic combinations of assumptions indicating a possible range of 12%–118%. Spatial variation in storm activity shows weak relationships with drought, demonstrating that forests can experience high drought stress, high storm activity, or both. Accordingly, we hypothesise that convective storms are among the most important drivers of tropical forest change, and as such, they require significant research investment to avoid misguiding science, policy, and management.

biomass carbon↗