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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2016

Sensitivity Analysis of the Integrated Medical Model for ISS Programs

Sensitivity analysis estimates the relative contribution of the uncertainty in input values to the uncertainty of model outputs. Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient (PRCC) and Standardized Rank Regression Coefficient (SRRC) are methods of conducting sensitivity analysis on nonlinear simulation models like the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The PRCC method estimates the sensitivity using partial correlation of the ranks of the generated input values to each generated output value. The partial part is so named because adjustments are made for the linear effects of all the other input values in the calculation of correlation between a particular input and each output. In SRRC, standardized regression-based coefficients measure the sensitivity of each input, adjusted for all the other inputs, on each output. Because the relative ranking of each of the inputs and outputs is used, as opposed to the values themselves, both methods accommodate the nonlinear relationship of the underlying model. As part of the IMM v4.0 validation study, simulations are available that predict 33 person-missions on ISS and 111 person-missions on STS. These simulated data predictions feed the sensitivity analysis procedures. The inputs to the sensitivity procedures include the number occurrences of each of the one hundred IMM medical conditions generated over the simulations and the associated IMM outputs: total quality time lost (QTL), number of evacuations (EVAC), and number of loss of crew lives (LOCL). The IMM team will report the results of using PRCC and SRRC on IMM v4.0 predictions of the ISS and STS missions created as part of the external validation study. Tornado plots will assist in the visualization of the condition-related input sensitivities to each of the main outcomes. The outcomes of this sensitivity analysis will drive review focus by identifying conditions where changes in uncertainty could drive changes in overall model output uncertainty. These efforts are an integral part of the overall verification, validation, and credibility review of IMM v4.0.

medical equipment↗
NASA NTRS2017

Balloon Thermal Model Design Parameters and Sensitivities

This presentation describes the thought process for determining balloon thermal model design parameters, including environmental parameters taken form NASA's top-of-atmosphere (TOA) database, and shows the sensitivity of an example model's key temperature results to those input parameters.

Balloon Thermal Model Design Paremeters and Sensit↗
NASA NTRS1989

Sensitivity of actively damped structures to imperfections and modeling errors

The sensitivity of actively damped response of structures with respect to errors in the structural modeling is studied. Two ways of representing errors are considered. The first approach assumes errors in the form of spatial variations (or imperfections) in the assumed mass and stiffness properties of the structures. The second approach assumes errors due to such factors as unknown joint stiffnesses, discretization errors, and nonlinearities. These errors are represented here as discrepancies between experimental and analytical mode shapes and frequencies. The actively damped system considered here is a direct-rate feedback regulator based on a number of colocated velocity sensors and force actuators. The response of the controlled structure is characterized by the eigenvalues of the closed-loop system. The effects of the modeling errors are thus presented as the sensitivity of the eigenvalues of the closed-loop system. Results are presented for two examples: (1) a three-span simply supported beam controlled by three sensors and actuators, and (2) a laboratory structure consisting of a cruciform beam supported by cables.

Haftka, Raphael T.↗
DOE OSTI2025

A stress-sensitive precipitate nucleation model beyond classical nucleation theory

The dynamic evolution of precipitates and second phases dictates the strength and stability of most engineering alloys. By design, or as a consequence of thermo-mechanical aging, engineering metals and alloys often form precipitates of second phases when subjecting to diverse thermal and mechanical loads. Precipitation is governed by several factors, including the alloy’s composition, processing/operating temperature, and stresses — either as a result of external loads or from residual stresses. However, state-of-the-art models for precipitate nucleation (i.e., classical nucleation theory) typically lacks consistent method to capture the effects of externally applied and/or internal stresses on nucleation; thereby severely limiting the applicability of these models to complex materials systems and to representative loading scenarios. Here, in this work, we extend upon classical nucleation theory to account for the effect of stresses on precipitation kinetics and thermodynamics. This is achieved via the use of an Eshelbian micromechanics framework keeping track of (i) the stress build up resulting from second phase formation as a function of mechanical load and, (ii) the effects of dislocations on precipitate formation. This new model is applied to σ precipitate in Fe–Cr binary alloys and M 23 C 6 precipitate in 316H stainless steel (SS). Simulations demonstrate the important role of both the remotely applied loads and dislocation pile ups on precipitate nucleation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sensitivity of mesoscale modeling to urban morphological feature inputs and implications for characterizing urban sustainability

We examine the differences in meteorological output from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model run at 270 m horizontal resolution using 10 m, 100 m and 1 km resolution 3D neighborhood morphological inputs and with no morphological inputs. We find that the spatial variability in temperature, humidity, and other meteorological variables across the city can vary with the resolution and the coverage of the 3D urban morphological input, and that larger differences occur between simulations run without 3D morphological input and those run with some type of 3D morphology. We also find that the inclusion of input-building-defined roughness length calculations would improve simulation results further. We show that these inputs produce different patterns of heat wave spatial heterogeneity across the city of Washington, DC. These findings suggest that understanding neighborhood level urban sustainability under extreme heat waves, especially for vulnerable neighborhoods, requires attention to the representation of surface terrain in numerical weather models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1989

Mathematical models for film sensitivity measurements

The quality of the pictorial record developed from photographic material depends on the composition of the material, the procedures used in its exposure and processing, as well as, the nature of the physical and temporal environment extant during the creation of the record. By holding many of the variables fixed, the effect of the two environmental parameters, namely temperature and aging are examined on the characteristic curve of a given film. Polynomial and exponential functions are evaluated as empirical formulas for the characteristic curve, and the sensitivity of derived coefficients to the selected parameters is assessed.

Hammond, Ernest C., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Quantifying PM2.5-Meteorology Sensitivities in a Global Climate Model

Climate change can influence fine particulate matter concentrations (PM2.5) through changes in air pollution meteorology. Knowledge of the extent to which climate change can exacerbate or alleviate air pollution in the future is needed for robust climate and air pollution policy decision-making. To examine the influence of climate on PM2.5, we use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model version 3 (GFDL CM3), a fully-coupled chemistry-climate model, combined with future emissions and concentrations provided by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). For each of the RCPs, we conduct future simulations in which emissions of aerosols and their precursors are held at 2005 levels while other climate forcing agents evolve in time, such that only climate (and thus meteorology) can influence PM2.5 surface concentrations. We find a small increase in global, annual mean PM2.5 of about 0.21 micro-g/cu m3 (5%) for RCP8.5, a scenario with maximum warming. Changes in global mean PM2.5 are at a maximum in the fall and are mainly controlled by sulfate followed by organic aerosol with minimal influence of black carbon. RCP2.6 is the only scenario that projects a decrease in global PM2.5 with future climate changes, albeit only by -0.06 micro-g/cu m (1.5%) by the end of the 21st century. Regional and local changes in PM2.5 are larger, reaching upwards of 2 micro-g/cu m for polluted (eastern China) and dusty (western Africa) locations on an annually averaged basis in RCP8.5. Using multiple linear regression, we find that future PM2.5 concentrations are most sensitive to local temperature, followed by surface wind and precipitation. PM2.5 concentrations are robustly positively associated with temperature, while negatively related with precipitation and wind speed. Present-day (2006-2015) modeled sensitivities of PM2.5 to meteorological variables are evaluated against observations and found to agree reasonably well with observed sensitivities (within 10e50% over the eastern United States for several variables), although the modeled PM2.5 is less sensitive to precipitation than in the observations due to weaker convective scavenging. We conclude that the hypothesized "climate penalty" of future increases in PM2.5 is relatively minor on a global scale compared to the influence of emissions on PM2.5 concentrations.

PM2.5↗
NASA NTRS1984

A global low order spectral model designed for climate sensitivity studies

A two level, global, spectral model using pressure as a vertical coordinate is developed. The system of equations describing the model is nonlinear and quasi-geostrophic. A moisture budget is calculated in the lower layer only with moist convective adjustment between the two layers. The mechanical forcing of topography is introduced as a lower boundary vertical velocity. Solar forcing is specified assuming a daily mean zenith angle. On land and sea ice surfaces a steady state thermal energy equation is solved to calculate the surface temperature. Over the oceans the sea surface temperatures are prescribed from the climatological average of January. The model is integrated to simulate the January climate.

Hanna, A. F.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Can Simulation Credibility Be Improved Using Sensitivity Analysis to Understand Input Data Effects on Model Outcome?

Model and simulation (MS) credibility is defined as, the quality to elicit belief or trust in MS results. NASA-STD-7009 [1] delineates eight components (Verification, Validation, Input Pedigree, Results Uncertainty, Results Robustness, Use History, MS Management, People Qualifications) that address quantifying model credibility, and provides guidance to the model developers, analysts, and end users for assessing the MS credibility. Of the eight characteristics, input pedigree, or the quality of the data used to develop model input parameters, governing functions, or initial conditions, can vary significantly. These data quality differences have varying consequences across the range of MS application. NASA-STD-7009 requires that the lowest input data quality be used to represent the entire set of input data when scoring the input pedigree credibility of the model. This requirement provides a conservative assessment of model inputs, and maximizes the communication of the potential level of risk of using model outputs. Unfortunately, in practice, this may result in overly pessimistic communication of the MS output, undermining the credibility of simulation predictions to decision makers. This presentation proposes an alternative assessment mechanism, utilizing results parameter robustness, also known as model input sensitivity, to improve the credibility scoring process for specific simulations.

Credibility↗
NASA NTRS2000

Application of Pressure-Sensitive Paint to Ice-Accreted Wind Tunnel Models

Pressure-sensitive paint (PSP) has been successfully used to measure global surface pressures on an ice-accreted model in an icing wind tunnel at NASA Glenn Research Center. Until now, the PSP technique has been limited to use in normal wind tunnels and clear flight environments. This is the first known application of PSP directly to ice in subfreezing conditions. Several major objectives were achieved in these tests. The procedure for applying the coating in the subfreezing tunnel environment was verified. Inspection of the painted ice surface revealed that the paint did not alter the original ice shape and adhered well over the entire coated area. Several procedures were used to show that the paint responded to changes in air pressure and that a repeatable pressure-dependent calibration could be achieved on the PSP-coated surfaces. Differences in pressure measurements made simultaneously on the ice and the metal test model are not yet fully understood, and techniques to minimize or correct them are being investigated.

Bencic, Timothy J.↗
NASA NTRS1988

The Milankovitch theory and climate sensitivity. I - Equilibrium climate model solutions for the present surface conditions. II - Interaction between the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and the climate system

A seasonal climate model was developed to test the climate sensitivity and, in particular, the Milankovitch (1941) theory. Four climate model versions were implemented to investigate the range of uncertainty in the parameterizations of three basic feedback mechanisms: the ice albedo-temperature, the outgoing long-wave radiation-temperature, and the eddy transport-meridional temperature gradient. It was found that the differences between the simulation of the present climate by the four versions were generally small, especially for annually averaged results. The climate model was also used to study the effect of growing/shrinking of a continental ice sheet, bedrock sinking/uplifting, and sea level changes on the climate system, taking also into account the feedback effects on the climate of the building of the ice caps.

Neeman, Binyamin U.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Contrasting Parametric Sensitivities in Two Global Vegetation Models Using Parameter Perturbation Ensembles

Uncertainty in land model projections remains high and the roles of parametric and structural uncertainty are difficult to disentangle. To compare parametric sensitivity across model structures we present two parameter perturbation ensembles using the Community Land Model (CLM) operating in satellite phenology mode. The ensembles contrast two vegetation modules: (a) the default CLM vegetation module and (b) the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (CLM-FATES). We perturbed over 300 parameters and quantified their effects on biophysical fluxes globally and across biomes. Most parameters have minimal impact on biophysical fluxes, with only a few substantially influencing results. While both models exhibit similar parameter sensitivity for some fluxes, CLM-FATES shows larger spread in gross primary productivity (GPP), driven by strong sensitivity to carboxylation rate. CLM-FATES also shows a weaker GPP response to soil hydrology parameters and exhibits higher water use efficiency (WUE). Cross-model comparisons reveal similar sensitivities for some parameters (e.g., leaf dimension) but divergent responses to others (e.g., stomatal intercept), highlighting underlying structural differences. Differences in WUE and sensitivity to hydrology and stomatal conductance parameters underscore how model structure fundamentally alters parametric sensitivity. The data sets generated from these ensembles can be used to identify influential parameters and guide future calibration efforts.

Foster, A. C. [NSF National Center for Atmospheric↗