Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Prediction algorithms”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 253 records · Page 14

Prediction of Pushback Times and Ramp Taxi Times for Departures at Charlotte Airport

When optimizing the takeoff sequence and schedule for departures at busy airports, it is important to accurately predict the taxi times from gate to runway because those are used to calculate the earliest possible takeoff times. Several airports like Charlotte Douglas International Airport show relatively long taxi times inside the ramp area with large variations, with respect to the travel times in the airport movement area. Also, the pushback process times have not been accurately modeled so far mainly due to the lack of accurate data. The recent deployment of the integrated arrival, departure, and surface traffic management system at Charlotte airport by NASA enables more accurate flight data in the airport surface operations to be obtained. Taking advantage of this system, actual pushback times and ramp taxi times from historical flight data at this airport are analyzed. Based on the analysis, a simple, data-driven prediction model is introduced for estimating pushback times and ramp transit times of individual departure flights. To evaluate the performance of this prediction model, several machine learning techniques are also applied to the same dataset. The prediction results show that the data-driven prediction model is as good as the machine learning algorithms when comparing various prediction performance metrics.

Lee, Hanbong↗

Prediction of Pushback Times and Ramp Taxi Times for Departures at Charlotte Airport

When optimizing the takeoff sequence and schedule for departures at busy airports, it is important to accurately predict the taxi times from gate to runway because those are used to calculate the earliest possible takeoff times. Several airports like Charlotte Douglas International Airport show relatively long taxi times inside the ramp area with large variations, with respect to the travel times in the airport movement area. Also, the pushback process times have not been accurately modeled so far mainly due to the lack of accurate data. The recent deployment of the integrated arrival, departure, and surface traffic management system at Charlotte airport by NASA enables more accurate flight data in the airport surface operations to be obtained. Taking advantage of this system, actual pushback times and ramp taxi times from historical flight data at this airport are analyzed. Based on the analysis, a simple, data-driven prediction model is introduced for estimating pushback times and ramp transit times of individual departure flights. To evaluate the performance of this prediction model, several machine learning techniques are also applied to the same dataset. The prediction results show that the data-driven prediction model is as good as the machine learning algorithms when comparing various prediction performance metrics.

airport surface operations↗

Improved Speech Coding Based on Open-Loop Parameter Estimation

A nonlinear optimization algorithm for linear predictive speech coding was developed early that not only optimizes the linear model coefficients for the open loop predictor, but does the optimization including the effects of quantization of the transmitted residual. It also simultaneously optimizes the quantization levels used for each speech segment. In this paper, we present an improved method for initialization of this nonlinear algorithm, and demonstrate substantial improvements in performance. In addition, the new procedure produces monotonically improving speech quality with increasing numbers of bits used in the transmitted error residual. Examples of speech encoding and decoding are given for 8 speech segments and signal to noise levels as high as 47 dB are produced. As in typical linear predictive coding, the optimization is done on the open loop speech analysis model. Here we demonstrate that minimizing the error of the closed loop speech reconstruction, instead of the simpler open loop optimization, is likely to produce negligible improvement in speech quality. The examples suggest that the algorithm here is close to giving the best performance obtainable from a linear model, for the chosen order with the chosen number of bits for the codebook.

Juang, Jer-Nan↗

Mars Pathfinder Atmospheric Entry Navigation Operations

On July 4, 1997, after traveling close to 500 million km, the Pathfinder spacecraft successfully completed entry, descent, and landing, coming to rest on the surface of Mars just 27 km from its target point. In the present paper, the atmospheric entry and approach navigation activities required in support of this mission are discussed. In particular, the flight software parameter update and landing site prediction analyses performed by the Pathfinder operations navigation team are described. A suite of simulation tools developed during Pathfinder's design cycle, but extendible to Pathfinder operations, are also presented. Data regarding the accuracy of the primary parachute deployment algorithm is extracted from the Pathfinder flight data, demonstrating that this algorithm performed as predicted. The increased probability of mission success through the software parameter update process is discussed. This paper also demonstrates the importance of modeling atmospheric flight uncertainties in the estimation of an accurate landing site. With these atmospheric effects included, the final landed ellipse prediction differs from the post-flight determined landing site by less then 0.5 km in downtrack.

Braun, R. D.↗

Experimental Performance of a Genetic Algorithm for Airborne Strategic Conflict Resolution

The Autonomous Operations Planner, a research prototype flight-deck decision support tool to enable airborne self-separation, uses a pattern-based genetic algorithm to resolve predicted conflicts between the ownship and traffic aircraft. Conflicts are resolved by modifying the active route within the ownship s flight management system according to a predefined set of maneuver pattern templates. The performance of this pattern-based genetic algorithm was evaluated in the context of batch-mode Monte Carlo simulations running over 3600 flight hours of autonomous aircraft in en-route airspace under conditions ranging from typical current traffic densities to several times that level. Encountering over 8900 conflicts during two simulation experiments, the genetic algorithm was able to resolve all but three conflicts, while maintaining a required time of arrival constraint for most aircraft. Actual elapsed running time for the algorithm was consistent with conflict resolution in real time. The paper presents details of the genetic algorithm s design, along with mathematical models of the algorithm s performance and observations regarding the effectiveness of using complimentary maneuver patterns when multiple resolutions by the same aircraft were required.

Karr, David A.↗

Experimental Performance of a Genetic Algorithm for Airborne Strategic Conflict Resolution

The Autonomous Operations Planner, a research prototype flight-deck decision support tool to enable airborne self-separation, uses a pattern-based genetic algorithm to resolve predicted conflicts between the ownship and traffic aircraft. Conflicts are resolved by modifying the active route within the ownship's flight management system according to a predefined set of maneuver pattern templates. The performance of this pattern-based genetic algorithm was evaluated in the context of batch-mode Monte Carlo simulations running over 3600 flight hours of autonomous aircraft in en-route airspace under conditions ranging from typical current traffic densities to several times that level. Encountering over 8900 conflicts during two simulation experiments, the genetic algorithm was able to resolve all but three conflicts, while maintaining a required time of arrival constraint for most aircraft. Actual elapsed running time for the algorithm was consistent with conflict resolution in real time. The paper presents details of the genetic algorithm's design, along with mathematical models of the algorithm's performance and observations regarding the effectiveness of using complimentary maneuver patterns when multiple resolutions by the same aircraft were required.

Karr, David A.↗

Mathematical algorithms to maximize performance in numerical weather prediction

Numerical weather prediction models, which involve the solution of non-linear partial differential equations at points on an extensive three dimensional grid, are ideally suited for processing on vector machines. It was logical therefore that the new global forecast model to be implemented at the Meteorological Office should be written in vector code for the CYBER 205. In order to achieve full efficiency and to reduce storage requirements the model used 32-bit arithmetic which was found to provide high enough precision. Unfortunately, however, the trigonometrical and logarithmic functions provided by CDC could only handle 64-bit vectors and, although written in efficient scalar code, did not take advantage of the special facilities of a vector processor. It was therefore necessary to rewrite the functions in vector code to handle both 32 and 64-bit vectors. There was also no half-precision compiler available for the Cyber 205 at that time and so the functions, like the model, had to make extensive use of the special call syntax. This made the code more difficult to write but it allowed much greater flexibility in that it became possible to access the exponent of a floating-point number independently of its coefficient. A description is given of the technique and the results which were achieved are summarized.

Foreman, A.↗

Predictive Lateral Logic for Numerical Entry Guidance Algorithms

Recent entry guidance algorithm development123 has tended to focus on numerical integration of trajectories onboard in order to evaluate candidate bank profiles. Such methods enjoy benefits such as flexibility to varying mission profiles and improved robustness to large dispersions. A common element across many of these modern entry guidance algorithms is a reliance upon the concept of Apollo heritage lateral error (or azimuth error) deadbands in which the number of bank reversals to be performed is non-deterministic. This paper presents a closed-loop bank reversal method that operates with a fixed number of bank reversals defined prior to flight. However, this number of bank reversals can be modified at any point, including in flight, based on contingencies such as fuel leaks where propellant usage must be minimized.

Smith, Kelly M.↗

Numerical experience with a class of algorithms for nonlinear optimization using inexact function and gradient information

For optimization problems associated with engineering design, parameter estimation, image reconstruction, and other optimization/simulation applications, low accuracy function and gradient values are frequently much less expensive to obtain than high accuracy values. Here, researchers investigate the computational performance of trust region methods for nonlinear optimization when high accuracy evaluations are unavailable or prohibitively expensive, and confirm earlier theoretical predictions when the algorithm is convergent even with relative gradient errors of 0.5 or more. The proper choice of the amount of accuracy to use in function and gradient evaluations can result in orders-of-magnitude savings in computational cost.

Carter, Richard G.↗

Third Sonic Boom Prediction Workshop Cases: Analysis Using the NASA PCBoom

This paper presents simulation results and analyses using the test cases provided for the Third Sonic Boom Prediction Workshop of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics. The simulation focuses on propagation to the ground of sonic boom generated by supersonic aircraft accounting for atmospheric effects. The simulation results use the NASA PCBoom propagation code that features the latest updates on the ray tube area and kinematic ray tracing algorithms to better predict waveforms and sonic boom carpet edges, respectively.

low boom↗

Development and application of computational aerothermodynamics flowfield computer codes

Research was performed in the area of computational modeling and application of hypersonic, high-enthalpy, thermo-chemical nonequilibrium flow (Aerothermodynamics) problems. A number of computational fluid dynamic (CFD) codes were developed and applied to simulate high altitude rocket-plume, the Aeroassist Flight Experiment (AFE), hypersonic base flow for planetary probes, the single expansion ramp model (SERN) connected with the National Aerospace Plane, hypersonic drag devices, hypersonic ramp flows, ballistic range models, shock tunnel facility nozzles, transient and steady flows in the shock tunnel facility, arc-jet flows, thermochemical nonequilibrium flows around simple and complex bodies, axisymmetric ionized flows of interest to re-entry, unsteady shock induced combustion phenomena, high enthalpy pulsed facility simulations, and unsteady shock boundary layer interactions in shock tunnels. Computational modeling involved developing appropriate numerical schemes for the flows on interest and developing, applying, and validating appropriate thermochemical processes. As part of improving the accuracy of the numerical predictions, adaptive grid algorithms were explored, and a user-friendly, self-adaptive code (SAGE) was developed. Aerothermodynamic flows of interest included energy transfer due to strong radiation, and a significant level of effort was spent in developing computational codes for calculating radiation and radiation modeling. In addition, computational tools were developed and applied to predict the radiative heat flux and spectra that reach the model surface.

Venkatapathy, Ethiraj↗

Prediction and measurement of turbulent aerodynamic trailing edge flows

A viscous-inviscid interaction algorithm is developed for prediction of two-dimensional mean and fluctuating velocity distributions in the wake immediately downstream of an airfoil trailing edge. A composite pressure field is defined, and a Poisson equation solved for transverse pressure variations. A parabolized form of the time-averaged steady Navier-Stokes equations are solved in conjunction with a viscous-augmented two-dimensional inviscid potential flow analysis. A tensor constitutive equation is employed to predict Reynolds stress distributions from solutions of a turbulence kinetic energy two equation closure model. Numerical predictions compared favorably with detailed experimental data for mean and fluctuating velocities, and Reynolds shear stress distributions, in the trailing edge region of a NACA 63-012 airfoil.

Baker, A. J.↗

Lightning Initiation Forecasting: An Operational Dual-Polarimetric Radar Technique

The objective of this NASA MSFC and NOAA CSTAR funded study is to develop and test operational forecast algorithms for the prediction of lightning initiation utilizing the C-band dual-polarimetric radar, UAHuntsville's Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR). Although there is a rich research history of radar signatures associated with lightning initiation, few studies have utilized dual-polarimetric radar signatures (e.g., Z(sub dr) columns) and capabilities (e.g., fuzzy-logic particle identification [PID] of precipitation ice) in an operational algorithm for first flash forecasting. The specific goal of this study is to develop and test polarimetric techniques that enhance the performance of current operational radar reflectivity based first flash algorithms. Improving lightning watch and warning performance will positively impact personnel safety in both work and leisure environments. Advanced warnings can provide space shuttle launch managers time to respond appropriately to secure equipment and personnel, while they can also provide appropriate warnings for spectators and players of leisure sporting events to seek safe shelter. Through the analysis of eight case dates, consisting of 35 pulse-type thunderstorms and 20 non-thunderstorm case studies, lightning initiation forecast techniques were developed and tested. The hypothesis is that the additional dual-polarimetric information could potentially reduce false alarms while maintaining high probability of detection and increasing lead-time for the prediction of the first lightning flash relative to reflectivity-only based techniques. To test the hypothesis, various physically-based techniques using polarimetric variables and/or PID categories, which are strongly correlated to initial storm electrification (e.g., large precipitation ice production via drop freezing), were benchmarked against the operational reflectivity-only based approaches to find the best compromise between forecast skill and lead-time. Forecast skill is determined by statistical analysis of probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR), Operational Utility Index (OUI), and critical success index (CSI).

Woodard, Crystal J.↗

Resource Selection Using Execution and Queue Wait Time Predictions

We developed techniques to predict application execution times for instance-based learning with an average error of 33% of average run time. We developed techniques to predict queue wait times that included a simulation of scheduling algorithms and execution time predictions. We implemented these techniques for the NAS Origin cluster.

Smith, Warren↗

Conflict Detection Using Variable Four-Dimensional Uncertainty Bounds to Control Missed Alerts

Decision-support tools for maintaining pairwise aircraft separation rely on conflict detection to alert the operator when the predicted trajectories of aircraft will result in a loss of separation. But aircraft frequently do not follow their predicted trajectories exactly. This can cause missed alerts and the failure of strategic separation procedures. We present a technique for modeling a bounded region of uncertainty around a four-dimensional predicted trajectory and an algorithm for detecting conflicts between trajectories modeled in this way that avoids missed alerts as long as the aircraft remain within the specified regions of uncertainty. In addition, we present an algorithm for detecting the intrusion of a trajectory modeled in this way into an area hazard modeled as a polygonal region. The size of the region of uncertainty can vary along the trajectory continually and independently in the along-path, cross-track, and vertical dimensions, providing an opportunity to reduce the likelihood of false alerts while protecting against typical prediction errors. The algorithm has been implemented in the Autonomous Operations Planner, a NASA Langley prototype decision support tool for airborne self-separation.

Karr, David A.↗

A new algorithm for modeling friction in dynamic mechanical systems

A method of modeling friction forces that impede the motion of parts of dynamic mechanical systems is described. Conventional methods in which the friction effect is assumed a constant force, or torque, in a direction opposite to the relative motion, are applicable only to those cases where applied forces are large in comparison to the friction, and where there is little interest in system behavior close to the times of transitions through zero velocity. An algorithm is described that provides accurate determination of friction forces over a wide range of applied force and velocity conditions. The method avoids the simulation errors resulting from a finite integration interval used in connection with a conventional friction model, as is the case in many digital computer-based simulations. The algorithm incorporates a predictive calculation based on initial conditions of motion, externally applied forces, inertia, and integration step size. The predictive calculation in connection with an external integration process provides an accurate determination of both static and Coulomb friction forces and resulting motions in dynamic simulations. Accuracy of the results is improved over that obtained with conventional methods and a relatively large integration step size is permitted. A function block for incorporation in a specific simulation program is described. The general form of the algorithm facilitates implementation with various programming languages such as FORTRAN or C, as well as with other simulation programs.

Hill, R. E.↗