Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Uncertainty Analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 253 records · Page 14

Analysis of Tank 38H (HTF-38-25-36, -32) and Tank 43H (HTF-43-25-33, -35) Samples for Support of the Enrichment Control and Corrosion Control Programs

Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) analyzed samples from Tank 38H and Tank 43H to support the Enrichment Control Program (ECP) and Corrosion Control Program (CCP). The results indicate the concentrations of most soluble species in the Tank 38H surface sample are similar to the previous Tank 38H surface sample. The current Tank 38H subsurface sample shows similar Na, free hydroxide, and anions in comparison to the previous subsurface sample. The current Tank 38H subsurface sample appears brown in color. Measurement of the wt.% insoluble solids in the Tank 38H subsurface sample and associated uncertainty analysis indicates that the calculated average wt.% insoluble solids is 5.5 ± 3.6 wt.%. Significant differences in the concentrations of major components between the Tank 38H surface and subsurface samples indicate stratification of solution species between these two locations within the Tank 38H. The current Tank 43H surface sample is ~ 10% diluted versus the previous Tank 43H surface sample and the Tank 43H subsurface sample is similar in composition to the previous Tank 43H subsurface sample. Information provided by SRMC on tank additions since the last ECP sampling indicates that a total of about 4,062 gallons of water was added to Tank 43H. This addition could account for the observed relatively small dilution of ~ 10% in the Tank 43H surface sample. Similar solution compositions measured in the current Tank 43H surface and subsurface samples indicate a minimal stratification within the tank.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Uncertainty in Simulating Wheat Yields Under Climate Change

Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain1. Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate2. However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models1,3 are difficult4. Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development and policymaking.

exhaust gases↗

A Finite Rate Chemical Analysis of Nitric Oxide Flow Contamination Effects on Scramjet Performance

The level of nitric oxide contamination in the test gas of the Langley Research Center Arc-Heated Scramjet Test Facility and the effect of the contamination on scramjet test engine performance were investigated analytically. A finite rate chemical analysis was performed to determine the levels of nitric oxide produced in the facility at conditions corresponding to Mach 6 to 8 flight simulations. Results indicate that nitric oxide levels range from one to three mole percent, corroborating previously obtained measurements. A three-stream combustor code with finite rate chemistry was used to investigate the effects of nitric oxide on scramjet performance. Results indicate that nitric oxide in the test gas causes a small increase in heat release and thrust performance for the test conditions investigated. However, a rate constant uncertainty analysis suggests that the effect of nitric oxide ranges from no net effect, to an increase of about 10 percent in thrust performance.

Cabell, Karen F.↗

Analysis of Tank 38H (HTF-38-24-53, -56) and Tank 43H (HTF-43-24-54, -55) Samples for Support of the Enrichment Control and Corrosion Control Programs

Savannah River National Laboratory analyzed samples from Tank 38H and Tank 43H to support the Enrichment Control Program (ECP) and Corrosion Control Program (CCP). The results indicate the concentrations of most soluble species in the Tank 38H surface sample increased from the previous Tank 38H surface sample. The current Tank 38H subsurface sample shows similar Na, free hydroxide, and anions in comparison to the previous subsurface sample. However, the 38H subsurface sample shows lower concentrations of Al, Ca, Fe, Mn, and Si in comparison to the previous Tank 38H subsurface sample. Measurement of the wt.% insoluble solids in the Tank 38H subsurface sample and associated uncertainty analysis indicates that the calculated average wt.% insoluble solids is 0.45 ± 0.75 wt.%. Significant differences in the concentrations of major components between the Tank 38H surface and subsurface samples indicate significant stratification of solution species between these two locations within Tank 38H.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Digital PIV Measurements of Acoustic Particle Displacements in a Normal Incidence Impedance Tube

Acoustic particle displacements and velocities inside a normal incidence impedance tube have been successfully measured for a variety of pure tone sound fields using Digital Particle Image Velocimetry (DPIV). The DPIV system utilized two 600-mj Nd:YAG lasers to generate a double-pulsed light sheet synchronized with the sound field and used to illuminate a portion of the oscillatory flow inside the tube. A high resolution (1320 x 1035 pixel), 8-bit camera was used to capture double-exposed images of 2.7-micron hollow silicon dioxide tracer particles inside the tube. Classical spatial autocorrelation analysis techniques were used to ascertain the acoustic particle displacements and associated velocities for various sound field intensities and frequencies. The results show that particle displacements spanning a range of 1-60 microns can be measured for incident sound pressure levels of 100-130 dB and for frequencies spanning 500-1000 Hz. The ability to resolve 1 micron particle displacements at sound pressure levels in the 100 dB range allows the use of DPIV systems for measurement of sound fields at much lower sound pressure levels than had been previously possible. Representative impedance tube data as well as an uncertainty analysis for the measurements are presented.

Humphreys, William M., Jr.↗

SeaWiFS Postlaunch Technical Report Series: The 1997 Prelaunch Radiometric Calibration of SeaWiFS - Volume 4

The Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) was originally calibrated by the instrument's manufacturer, Santa Barbara Research Center (SBRC), in November 1993. In preparation for an August 1997 launch, the SeaWiFS Project and the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) undertook a second calibration of SeaWiFS in January and April 1997 at the facility of the spacecraft integrator, Orbital Sciences Corporation (OSC). This calibration occurred in two phases, the first after the final thermal vacuum test, and the second after the final vibration test of the spacecraft. For the calibration, SeaWiFS observed an integrating sphere from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) at four radiance levels. The spectral radiance of the sphere at these radiance levels was also measured by the SeaWiFS Transfer Radiometer (SXR). In addition, during the calibration, SeaWiFS and the SXR observed the sphere at 16 radiance levels to determine the linearity of the SeaWiFS response. As part of the calibration analysis, the GSFC sphere was also characterized using a GSFC spectroradiometer. The 1997 calibration agrees with the initial 1993 calibration to within +/- 4%. The new calibration coefficients, computed before and after the vibration test, agree to within 0.5%. The response of the SeaWiFS channels in each band is linear to better than 1%. In order to compare to previous and current methods, the SeaWiFS radiometric responses are presented in two ways: using the nominal center wave-lengths for the eight bands; and using band-averaged spectral radiances. The band-averaged values are used in the flight calibration table. An uncertainty analysis for the calibration coefficients is also presented.

Hooker, Stanford B.↗

Re-evaluating probable maximum precipitation estimates: sensitivity to transposition domains and storm rotation using modern datasets

This study examines the sensitivity of Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) estimates to key methodological decisions embedded in the legacy approach adopted in the U.S. National Weather Service Hydrometeorological Reports No. 51 and No. 52. Although widely used for infrastructure design and risk regulation, fundamental aspects of PMP estimation—such as storm sample size, transposition domain, maximization procedures, and storm rotation—remain poorly constrained and lack formal guidance. Using the Red Rock watershed in Iowa as a case study, and leveraging the 2002–2023 NOAA Analysis of Record for Calibration (AORC) precipitation dataset, we systematically evaluate how each methodological choice, individually and in combination, influences PMP estimates. Our findings demonstrate that PMP is not a fixed physical upper bound but rather a modeling construct shaped heavily by user-defined assumptions. Notably, PMP values derived from modern gridded rainfall datasets can be substantially higher than the legacy estimate used in the original spillway design for Red Rock Dam. Decisions regarding storm sample size, domain extent, climatological window, and particularly storm rotation all contributed to higher PMP estimates. Storm rotation alone—a loosely constrained element in the current PMP practice—can amplify PMP by more than 25%. These results reveal the lack of standardized bounds in current PMP workflows and the need for systematic sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. As PMP estimation shifts toward probabilistic approaches, incorporating physically meaningful storm attributes will be key to developing more transparent, defensible methods for dam safety and climate-resilient infrastructure.

Probable maximum precipitation↗

Cryogenic System for Interferometric Measurement of Dimensional Changes at 40 K: Design and Performance

This report describes the facility, experimental methods, characterizations, and uncertainty analysis of the Cryo Distortion Measurement Facility (CDMF) at the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). This facility is designed to measure thermal distortions of structural elements as the temperature is lowered from 320K to below 40 K over multiple cycles, and is capable of unattended running and data logging. The first measurement is to be the change in length and any bending of composite tubes with Invar end-fittings. The CDMF includes a chamber that is efficiently cooled with two cryo-coolers (one single-stage and one two-stage) rather than with liquid cryogens. Five optical ports incorporate sapphire radiation shields - transparent to the interferometer - on each of two shrouds and a fused silica vacuum-port window. The change in length of composite tubes is monitored continuously with displacement-measuring interferometers; and the rotations, bending, and twisting are measured intermittently with theodolites and a surface-figure interferometer. Nickel-coated invar mirrors and attachment mechanisms were developed and qualified by test in the CDMF. The uncertainty in measurement of length change of 0.4 m tubes is currently estimated at 0.9 micrometers.

Blake, Peter↗

The Role of Uncertainty in Aerospace Vehicle Analysis and Design

Effective uncertainty quantification (UQ) begins at the earliest phase in the design phase for which there are adequate models and continues tightly integrated to the analysis and design cycles as the refinement of the models and the fidelity of the tools increase. It is essential that uncertainty quantification strategies provide objective information to support the processes of identifying, analyzing and accommodating for the effects of uncertainty. Assessments of uncertainty should never render the results more difficult for engineers and decision makers to comprehend, but instead provide them with critical information to assist with resource utilization decisions and risk mitigation strategies. Success would be measured by the tools to enable engineers and decision makers to effectively balance critical project resources against system requirements while accounting for the impact of uncertainty.

Kenny, Sean P.↗

Ligand Many-Body Expansion as a General Approach for Accelerating Transition Metal Complex Discovery

Methods that accelerate the evaluation of molecular properties are essential for chemical discovery. While some degree of ligand additivity has been established for transition metal complexes, it is underutilized in asymmetric complexes, such as the square pyramidal coordination geometries highly relevant to catalysis. To develop predictive methods beyond simple additivity, we apply a many-body expansion to octahedral and square pyramidal complexes and introduce a correction based on adjacent ligands (i.e., the cis interaction model). We first test the cis interaction model on adiabatic spin-splitting energies of octahedral Fe(II) complexes, predicting DFT-calculated values of unseen binary complexes to within an average of 1.4 kcal/mol. Uncertainty analysis reveals the optimal basis, comprising the homoleptic and mer symmetric complexes. We next show that the cis model (i.e., the cis interaction model solved for the optimal basis) infers both DFT- and CCSD(T)-calculated model catalytic reaction energies to within 1 kcal/mol on average. The cis model predicts low-symmetry complexes with reaction energies outside the range of binary complex reaction energies. We observe that trans interactions are unnecessary for most monodentate systems but can be important for some combinations of ligands, such as complexes containing a mixture of bidentate and monodentate ligands. Lastly, we demonstrate that the cis model may be combined with Δ-learning to predict CCSD(T) reaction energies from exhaustively calculated DFT reaction energies and the same fraction of CCSD(T) reaction energies needed for the cis model, achieving around 30% of the error from using the CCSD(T) reaction energies in the cis model alone.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A Unified Analytical Method Greenness Score ( uAMGS ) Quantifies How Microscopic Imaging Is Greener Than Conventional Liquid Chromatography

Green chemistry is a set of principles for assessing, developing, and implementing methods that are safer, more efficient, and less detrimental to the environment. The analytical method greenness score (AMGS) is one of many metrics that attempt to evaluate traditional liquid chromatography (LC) based on the energy consumption of the instrument and the safety, health risks, and environmental impact of the solvents employed. Unfortunately, in practice, the AMGS is primarily focused on traditional separation methods in the pharmaceutical industry and is not amenable to cutting-edge separation science, including miniaturization. To broaden this scope, the unified Analytical Method Greenness Score (uAMGS) is presented here, which clarifies and expands on the underlying mathematics and incorporates both dimensional and uncertainty analysis, enabling its application to a broader range of analytical techniques. The uAMGS is used to compare the greenness of two distinct methods: single-molecule microscopy (SMM) and high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC), which were used to collect equivalent data. uAMGS determines that SMM is significantly greener than HPLC due primarily to decreased solvent consumption. Overall, the uAMGS should allow chemists ranging from undergraduates to industrial PhDs to assess the greenness of a wide range of separations.

chemical separations↗

Beta-Decay Half-Lives beyond 54 Ca: A Systematic Survey of Decay Properties Approaching the Neutron Dripline

In an experiment performed at the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams (FRIB) using the FRIB Decay Station initiator, 15 new half-lives of isotopes near 54 Ca were measured. A new method of extracting lifetimes from experimental data, taking into account the unknown 𝛽-delayed neutron emission branches of very neutron-rich nuclei, was developed to enable systematic uncertainty analysis. The experiment observed a dramatic change in the half-life systematics for the isotopes with neutron number 𝑁 = 34. Beyond 𝑁 = 34, the decline of nuclear lifetime is much slower, leading to longer than anticipated lifetimes for near-dripline nuclei. State-of-the-art shell-model calculations can explain the experimental results, revealing the imprint of shell effects and the need for modification of single-particle neutron states. In conclusion, the results from a newly developed quasiparticle random phase approximation model with potential for making global predictions were also tested against the experimental results and good agreement was found.

Physics - Nuclear physics and radiation physics↗

Robust error calibration for serial crystallography

Serial crystallography is an important technique with unique abilities to resolve enzymatic transition states, minimize radiation damage to sensitive metalloenzymes and perform de novo structure determination from micrometre-sized crystals. This technique requires the merging of data from thousands of crystals, making manual identification of errant crystals unfeasible. cctbx.xfel.merge uses filtering to remove problematic data. However, this process is imperfect, and data reduction must be robust to outliers. We add robustness to cctbx.xfel.merge at the step of uncertainty determination for reflection intensities. This step is a critical point for robustness because it is the first step where the data sets are considered as a whole, as opposed to individual lattices. Robustness is conferred by reformulating the error-calibration procedure to have fewer and less stringent statistical assumptions and incorporating the ability to down-weight low-quality lattices. We then apply this method to five macromolecular XFEL data sets and observe the improvements to each. The appropriateness of the intensity uncertainties is demonstrated through internal consistency. This is performed through theoretical CC 1/2 and I /σ relationships and by weighted second moments, which use Wilson's prior to connect intensity uncertainties with their expected distribution. This work presents new mathematical tools to analyze intensity statistics and demonstrates their effectiveness through the often underappreciated process of uncertainty analysis.

Mittan-Moreau, David W.↗

Platform Of Optimal Experiment Management

The platform of optimal experiment management, POEM, powered with automated machine learning to accelerate the discovery of optimal solutions, and automatically guide the design of experiments to be evaluated. POEM currently supports 1) random model explorations for experiment design, 2) sparse grid model explorations with Gaussian Polynomial Chaos surrogate model to accelerate experiment design ,3) time-dependent model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis to identify the importance features for experiment design, 4) model calibrations via Bayesian inference to integrate experiments to improve model performance, and 5) Bayesian optimization for optimal experimental design. In addition, POEM aims to simplify the process of experimental design for users, enabling them to analyze the data with minimal human intervention, and improving the technological output from research activities.

Wang, Congjian [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), I↗

Samoa Updater: An Application of the Levenberg-Marquardt Method to Update DELFIC Predictions Using Field Measurements

The US Department of Energy (DOE) Forensics Operations (DFO) is a member of the Ground Collections Task Force (GCTF), which is responsible for sample collection of radiological debris for attribution should a nuclear detonation ever occur in the United States. The DFO runs the Defense Land Fallout Interpretive Code (DELFIC) Fallout Planning Tool to predict the deposition of fallout from a nuclear detonation. This prediction is refined using the DELFIC Updater tool, which takes ground measurements and adjusts DELFIC inputs to minimize the difference between prediction and observation, yielding improved predictions of fallout in locations both measured and not yet measured. Samoa, a framework for uncertainty analysis and optimization, is used to improve DELFIC predictive fallout modeling. This new capability using Samoa, dubbed “Samoa Updater,” is compared with the current DELFIC Updater, a brute-force sampling approach. Samoa Updater uses the Levenberg– Marquardt (LM) method, a gradient-based nonlinear least squares approach that uses the functional shape of the input space to increase optimization speed. In simulated test cases Samoa Updater yields faster and more accurate solutions than the current Updater.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Nuclear Material Accounting and Control (NMAC) for a Commercial Fuel Debundling Facility in the United States

The concept of fuel debundling proposes that all non-fuel components of a fuel assembly be removed prior to beginning the recycling process. It was introduced to reduce the quantity of and cost of disposing high level radioactive waste during recycling in the United States. However, nuclear material accountancy and control programs could also benefit from fuel debundling due to a reduction in self-shielding material for individual fuel rods compared to a fuel assembly. Current NRC regulations and guidance point to an independent fuel debundling facility with a material-possession-only license as the best option for implementing this concept into a used fuel recycling scheme in the United States. This allows the facility to comply only with simple NMAC requirements under Subpart B of 10 CFR Part 74 without the need to submit an NMAC plan to the NRC, exempting it from more tedious and complex NMAC requirements. However, a recycling facility may desire a Pu mass estimate from measurements of each individual fuel rod to improve accountancy into the dissolver. Many technologies and methodologies were considered for performing NMAC in an independent fuel debundling facility in the United States. Few were able to meet anticipated throughput demands of up to 3,300 rods/day and achieve measurement uncertainties suitable for input accountancy for a recycling facility. The best option was a combination of passive gamma-ray spectroscopy and neutron coincidence counting to meet all requirements for the proposed Fuel Debundling Detector (FUDD). Follow-on work will include a full uncertainty analysis to inform what assumptions can be made to meet input accountancy objectives before beginning experimental activities.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DRE: Designing for Resilience through Emulation

Threats to cyber- and cyber-physical systems have continued to increase over the past decade. Now more than ever, it is vital that cyber-physical system stakeholders have the tools to deeply understand their systems and the threats they face. High-fidelity modeling capabilities are powerful tools to support system understanding and decision-making, but they currently lack scientifically rigorous experimentation practices and infrastructures. The purpose of the project Designing for Resilience through Emulation (DRE) was to bring together past research and existing tools into a new pipeline to improve our ability to quantitatively evaluate future cyber scenarios. DRE offers new integrated capabilities for large dataset collection, noise studies, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty quantification, and surrogate modeling using a cyber-physical system emulation environment. These new capabilities significantly improve our ability to establish the credibility of the answers derived from emulation environments, ultimately leading to better critical decision support.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Education for PV Modeling Professionals: Observations from the 2025 PVPMC Workshop

We surveyed professionals in the photovoltaic industry to understand interests in education and training for performance modeling of solar power systems. We found that most professionals are self-taught and rely on a variety of public sources of technical materials. Available formal education, such as courses or certification programs, either lacks detail or is focused on software user training. Responses indicate several opportunities to create public resources that would benefit professional learning for solar power system modeling: • Create a glossary of terms and common variable names. • Develop guidance on uncertainty analysis in the context of solar power systems modeling. • Assemble a catalog of available educational materials and data sources.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗