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DOE OSTI2021

Sensor enabled data-driven predictive analytics for modeling and control with high penetration of DERs in distribution systems

The electric power grid is undergoing a tremendous transformation due to the increasing penetration of renewable energy resources beginning with wind and more recently with the distributed energy resources (DERs) such as solar and battery storage. DERs have dramatically changed the role of the distribution systems in the overall power grid, and they are expected to contribute a significant portion of power generation in the future. If current trends for DERs continue, system operation and control will need to change dramatically for improved grid reliability and resiliency. As renewable resources increase in penetration, new and challenging operational, planning, and design problems are expected to emerge. Some of the key challenges that arise in the planning and operation of the future grid are: 1) Quantifying the impact of high DER penetration in distribution systems on bulk grid behavior over multiple time scales. 2) Identifying whether a particular DER configuration/settings have a large impact on the overall grid behavior. These challenges can be addressed in an offline manner using detailed T&D grid models and they can also be addressed in an online manner using sensor measurements. In particular, the advancement and planned growth in sensor technology in power grid over various voltage levels provide us with a unique opportunity to tackle these challenges from a data analytic perspective without needing detailed T&D grid models. A few questions that naturally arise when addressing the challenges from DERs using sensor data are: 1) How can we use limited sensor measurements to monitor & control voltage stability and small signal stability of the bulk system? 2) How can we ensure that the developed data analytic methods are robust to data availability and quality issues? 3) How can we compute the developed analytics in a scalable manner using streaming measurements? In this project, we addressed the aforementioned challenges arising from DERs and answered the questions raised above on how to effectively use the sensor measurements to enhance the reliability and performance of the electric grid. Thus, the overarching goal of this project is to develop effective reduced/representative system models from data that make the computational complexity sufficiently manageable so as to be useful to simulate, analyze, and even control complex non-linear power systems dynamics with large penetrations of DERs. In order to achieve the objective, the project team established a four-fold technical approach 1) Formulated a combined transmission-distribution co-simulation framework for data generation and validation, 2) Derived reduced/representative models of power systems based on data-driven methods for efficient computation and appropriate representation of system behavior, 3) Developed data driven characterization of power system behavior based on transfer operator theory, machine learning and optimization for model estimation, 4) Incorporated a scalable data management and processing architecture using distributed Kafka streaming applications that coordinate input data streams to the developed data analytics. The key accomplishments of the project are: 1) Development of a scalable multi-timescale T&D co-simulation framework (both for steady state and for dynamic co-simulation) using commercial solvers (PSSE and GridLAB-D). The steady-state T&D co-simulation interface is shared with our industry partner (PJM). 2) A structured reduced order dynamic model of distribution systems that can represent partial motor stalling along with a systematic procedure to derive the model parameters. 3) A PMU based online method to monitor, localize and mitigate fault-induced delayed voltage recovery using DER reactive support and load control in distribution systems. 4) Development of linear operator based robust methodologies for dynamic state estimation, uncertainty quantification, system identification and trajectory prediction for power system dynamics. 5) An adaptive damping control for utilizing wind energy resources to provide oscillation damping and system stability. 6) Implementation of Kafka-based framework for efficient processing of streaming data using Linux-based local virtual environment.

DER integration↗

DOE OSTI2023

Experimental demonstration of a data-driven control system for subcritical nuclear facility

Here this paper presents an experimental demonstration of a data-driven control system (DCS) designed for the MIT Graphite Exponential Pile (MGEP). The DCS aims to regulate the neutron flux profile such that symmetry is preserved. Neutron flux perturbations are introduced into the MGEP to test the DCS's capabilities by the movement of an initiating control rod (ICR). To realize this functionality, a control system that relies on an artificial neural network (ANN) was developed, and then demonstrated on the MGEP. A Helium-3 ( 3 He) neutron detector and dual control rods, including their moving mechanisms, were fabricated. The perturbed flux profile was monitored by the moving neutron detector. The prediction accuracy of the neural network (NN) was examined and the DCS response was presented. Our results show that neural network regression model trained by experimental data can achieve a prediction error of less than 2.5 cm with a 95% confidence interval. The demonstration experiment also shows that a perturbation of the ICR can be captured by the control system and flux symmetry can be maintained within 1% after the response of the responding control rod (RCR).

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Data-Driven Modeling of Spatially Explicit Air Pollutant Inventories for Agricultural and Forestry Feedstock Production

As biomass feedstock production expands, air pollutants generated from feedstock supply chain activities may impact air quality and human health. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Feedstock Production Emissions to Air Model (FPEAM) generates county-scale inventories of direct air pollutant emissions produced by feedstock supply chain activities. FPEAM can also be used to generate local, temporally resolved inventories for input into air quality models. This presentation provides an overview of FPEAM functionality and discusses several recent use cases prior to FPEAM's scheduled public release in September 2019. FPEAM is a modular, data-driven model. Each module contains calculations for an activity type, except for the feedstock transportation and on-farm equipment operation modules which connect to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator (MOVES) and Nonroad models, respectively. The data-driven aspect of FPEAM means that it is the input data provided for a scenario rather than the model itself that determines the pollutants and supply chain activities included in the scenario scope. Modules within FPEAM can also be turned on or off manually to adjust the scenario scope. Default input data packaged with the FPEAM code base can be used to calculate inventories of volatile organic compounds, particulate matter, ammonia, nitrogen oxides, sulfur oxides, and carbon monoxide generated by agricultural and forestry equipment operation, application of nitrogenous fertilizers, herbicide and insecticide, and feedstock transportation. Custom, user-developed data can be used in place of the default data to analyze scenarios with additional or alternate feedstocks, pollutants, and supply chain activities.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

NASA NTRS2011

Prognostics of Power Mosfets Under Thermal Stress Accelerated Aging Using Data-Driven and Model-Based Methodologies

An approach for predicting remaining useful life of power MOSFETs (metal oxide field effect transistor) devices has been developed. Power MOSFETs are semiconductor switching devices that are instrumental in electronics equipment such as those used in operation and control of modern aircraft and spacecraft. The MOSFETs examined here were aged under thermal overstress in a controlled experiment and continuous performance degradation data were collected from the accelerated aging experiment. Dieattach degradation was determined to be the primary failure mode. The collected run-to-failure data were analyzed and it was revealed that ON-state resistance increased as die-attach degraded under high thermal stresses. Results from finite element simulation analysis support the observations from the experimental data. Data-driven and model based prognostics algorithms were investigated where ON-state resistance was used as the primary precursor of failure feature. A Gaussian process regression algorithm was explored as an example for a data-driven technique and an extended Kalman filter and a particle filter were used as examples for model-based techniques. Both methods were able to provide valid results. Prognostic performance metrics were employed to evaluate and compare the algorithms.

Electrolytic capacitors↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven upper bounds and event attribution for unprecedented heatwaves

The last decade has seen numerous record-shattering heatwaves in all corners of the globe. In the aftermath of these devastating events, there is interest in identifying worst-case thresholds or upper bounds that quantify just how hot temperatures can become. Generalized Extreme Value theory provides a data-driven estimate of extreme thresholds; however, upper bounds may be exceeded by future events, which undermines attribution and planning for heatwave impacts. Here, we show how the occurrence and relative probability of observed yet unprecedented events that exceed a priori upper bound estimates, so-called “impossible” temperatures, has changed over time. We find that many unprecedented events are actually within data-driven upper bounds, but only when using modern spatial statistical methods. Furthermore, there are clear connections between anthropogenic forcing and the “impossibility” of the most extreme temperatures. Robust understanding of heatwave thresholds provides critical information about future record-breaking events and how their extremity relates to historical measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Characterize traction–separation relation and interfacial imperfections by data-driven machine learning models

Abstract Interfacial mechanical properties are important in composite materials and their applications, including vehicle structures, soft robotics, and aerospace. Determination of traction–separation (T–S) relations at interfaces in composites can lead to evaluations of structural reliability, mechanical robustness, and failures criteria. Accurate measurements on T–S relations remain challenging, since the interface interaction generally happens at microscale. With the emergence of machine learning (ML), data-driven model becomes an efficient method to predict the interfacial behaviors of composite materials and establish their mechanical models. Here, we combine ML, finite element analysis (FEA), and empirical experiments to develop data-driven models that characterize interfacial mechanical properties precisely. Specifically, eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) multi-output regressions and classifier models are harnessed to investigate T–S relations and identify the imperfection locations at interface, respectively. The ML models are trained by macroscale force–displacement curves, which can be obtained from FEA and standard mechanical tests. The results show accurate predictions of T–S relations ( R 2 = 0.988) and identification of imperfection locations with 81% accuracy. Our models are experimentally validated by 3D printed double cantilever beam specimens from different materials. Furthermore, we provide a code package containing trained ML models, allowing other researchers to establish T–S relations for different material interfaces.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

IMoFi (Intelligent Model Fidelity): Physics-Based Data-Driven Grid Modeling to Accelerate Accurate PV Integration Updated Accomplishments

This report summarizes the work performed under a project funded by U.S. DOE Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO), including some updates from the previous report SAND2022-0215, to use grid edge measurements to calibrate distribution system models for improved planning and grid integration of solar PV. Several physics-based data-driven algorithms are developed to identify inaccuracies in models and to bring increased visibility into distribution system planning. This includes phase identification, secondary system topology and parameter estimation, meter-to-transformer pairing, medium-voltage reconfiguration detection, determination of regulator and capacitor settings, PV system detection, PV parameter and setting estimation, PV dynamic models, and improved load modeling. Each of the algorithms is tested using simulation data and demonstrated on real feeders with our utility partners. The final algorithms demonstrate the potential for future planning and operations of the electric power grid to be more automated and data-driven, with more granularity, higher accuracy, and more comprehensive visibility into the system.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Characterization of mechanical discontinuities based on data-driven classification of compressional-wave travel times

Wave propagation and diffusive transport phenomena are influenced by the mechanical discontinuities in material. Here this study shows that certain bulk properties of the network of low-velocity mechanical discontinuities (e.g. air-filled cracks) in a material can be characterized by processing compressional-wave travel times using traditional data-driven classification techniques. To that end, we perform three tasks in chronological order: (1) use the discrete fracture network (DFN) method to create two-dimensional (2D) numerical models of crack-bearing material embedded with various types of low-velocity mechanical discontinuities, (2) use the fast marching method (FMM) to simulate the propagation of the wave/diffusion front from a single source through the 2D crack-bearing material to multiple receivers placed on the boundary of the material, and (3) train 9 data-driven classifiers to characterize the crack-bearing materials (i.e. bulk properties of the network of mechanical discontinuities in the crack-bearing material) by learning from the simulations of travel times detected by multiple receivers placed around the crack-bearing material. The classifiers identified the orientation, spatial distribution, and dispersion of the low-velocity mechanical discontinuities. Voting classifier performs the best among the 9 classifiers. For the characterization of bulk dispersion and distribution of discontinuities, the sensors located on the adjacent boundaries are more important; whereas for the characterization of bulk orientation of discontinuities, the sensors located on the opposite side are more important.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

On the Prediction of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions Within a Data-Driven Framework

Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) pose the largest uncertainty for climate projection. Among many challenges of understanding ACI, the question of whether ACI can be deterministically predicted has not been explicitly answered. Here we attempt to answer this question by predicting cloud droplet number concentration N c from aerosol number concentration N a and ambient conditions using a data-driven framework. We use aerosol properties, vertical velocity fluctuations, and meteorological states from the ACTIVATE field observations (2020–2022) as predictors to estimate N c . We show that the campaign-wide N c can be successfully predicted using machine learning models despite the strongly nonlinear and multi-scale nature of ACI. However, the observation-trained machine learning model fails to predict N c in individual cases while it successfully predicts N c of randomly selected data points that cover a broad spatiotemporal scale. This suggests that, within a data-driven framework, the N c prediction is uncertain at fine spatiotemporal scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data-Driven Mapping of the Cesium Cadmium Bromide Phase Space Utilizing a Soft-Chemistry Approach

Soft-chemistry techniques provide a versatile approach to synthesizing inorganic materials under mild conditions, enabling access to compositions and structures that are challenging to achieve through traditional thermodynamically driven solid-state methods. However, these solution-based routes often result in phase competition, requiring precise control over reaction conditions to achieve selective product formation. While one-variable-at-a-time (OVAT) approaches have traditionally been used for phase selection, data-driven strategies are emerging as more efficient methods for navigating complex synthetic spaces. Ternary metal halides, such as cesium cadmium bromides (Cs–Cd–Br), are of growing interest due to their potential in wide and ultrawide band gap applications. Unlike the well-studied cesium lead halide phases, the compositional diversity and solution-based synthesis of ternary Cs–Cd–Br phases remain largely unexplored. This study systematically investigates the synthetic phase space of the Cs–Cd–Br system by constructing a data-driven phase map. Using a common set of precursors and a standardized experimental procedure, we successfully synthesize all four known Cs–Cd–Br phases—CsCdBr 3 , Cs 2 CdBr 4 , Cs 3 CdBr 5 , and Cs 7 Cd 3 Br 13 —each exhibiting distinct structures, morphologies, and optical properties. Our findings highlight the potential of soft-chemistry methods for expanding the library of ternary metal halides and provide key insights into the thermodynamic and kinetic factors governing phase formation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2019

A Data-driven Control Method for Operating the Commercial HVAC Load as a Virtual Battery

Building loads have a great potential to provide ancillary services because of its large power consumption. In order to quantify their flexibility, methods of modeling building loads as virtual battery (VB) have been proposed. The VB model provides an effective way to coordinate building loads and energy storage systems together when providing service to grid. However, after grid send a power signal to VB, the control strategy has not been fully studied to let building consumes this desired amount of power yet. This paper introduces a method to control commercial heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system. First, the thermal model of commercial building is introduced. We then used several data-driven models to approximate this thermal dynamic and the operation of different HVAC components. Base on these data-driven models, we developed a centralized control algorithm to utilize HVAC system consuming the desired amount of power. Finally, we modeled a realistic commercial building in EnergyPlus to test the performance of this proposed control algorithm

Wang, Jiyu↗

DOE OSTI2021

Data-driven profile prediction for DIII-D

A new, fully data-driven algorithm has been developed that uses neural networks to predict plasma pro les on a scale of τ E into the future given actuators and the present plasma state. The model was trained and tested on DIII-D data from the 2013-2018 experimental campaigns. The model is accurate on average, with q predictions the worst and pressure predictions the best. The model can run in milliseconds and is very simple to use. This makes it a potentially useful tool for operators and physicists when planning plasma scenarios. It also is a candidate for doing phase-space exploration without going through the DIIID database or complicated and computationally expensive simulation codes. Here, a reduced model using only realtime diagnostics has also been developed and formed the basis for a model-predictive control algorithm implemented and successfully tested on DIII-D.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven global ocean modeling for seasonal to decadal prediction

Accurate modeling of ocean dynamics is crucial for enhancing our understanding of complex ocean circulation processes, predicting climate variability, and tackling challenges posed by climate change. Although great efforts have been made to improve traditional numerical models, predicting global ocean variability over multiyear scales remains challenging. Here, we propose ORCA-DL (Oceanic Reliable foreCAst via Deep Learning), a data-driven three-dimensional ocean model for seasonal to decadal prediction of global ocean dynamics. ORCA-DL accurately simulates the three-dimensional structure of global ocean dynamics with high physical consistency and outperforms state-of-the-art numerical models in capturing extreme events, including El Niño–Southern Oscillation and upper ocean heat waves. Moreover, ORCA-DL stably emulates ocean dynamics at decadal timescales, demonstrating its potential even for skillful decadal predictions and climate projections. Our results demonstrate the high potential of data-driven models for providing efficient and accurate global ocean modeling and prediction.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2022

Time Delay of Wide Area Damping Control in Urban Power Grid: Model-Based Analysis and Data-Driven Compensation

Due to the rapid development of economies, large urban cities consume an increasing amount of energy and have a higher requirement for power quality. Voltage source converter based high voltage direct current (VSC-HVDC) is a promising device to transmit clean power from remote regions to urban power systems, while also providing wide area damping control (WADC) for frequency stabilization. However, the time-delay naturally existing in the VSC-HVDC system may degrade the performance of WADC and even result in instability. To address this issue, this paper develops a time-delay correction control strategy for VSC-HVDC damping control in urban power grids. First, a small signal model of WADC is built to analyze the negative impacts of time delay. Then, a data-driven approach is proposed to compensate for the inherent time delay in VSC-HVDC damping control. The extensive training data will be generated under various disturbances. After offline training, the long short-term memory network (LSTM) can be implemented online to predict the actual frequency deviation based on real-time measurements. Finally, the proposed method is validated through MATLAB-Simulink in a two-area four-machine system. The results indicate that the data-driven compensation has a strong generalization ability for random delay time constants and can improve the performance of WADC significantly.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Hybrid data-driven and model-informed online tool wear detection in milling machines

Precision machining tool wear is responsible for low product throughput and quality. Monitoring the tool wear online is vital to prevent degradation in machining quality. However, direct real-time tool wear measurement is not practical. This paper presents residual-based anomaly detection models, combining a hybrid model comprised of a physics-based model and a data-driven model (a decision tree or a neural network) to predict signals of interest (e.g., power or forces) under nominal conditions, followed by Page’s cumulative sum test for detecting tool wear on-line using the computer numerical control machine measurements. The most informative features are ranked using dynamic programming and its approximation variants from real-time measurements and machine settings, such as the width of cut, depth of cut, feed rate and spindle speed, that serve as inputs to the predictive models. The baseline nominal model is incrementally updated with experimental data via a gradient boosted adaptation model to generate the residuals that account for discrepancies between the actual machine data under normal conditions and the baseline nominal model predictions. The hybrid model is validated against 20 Mazak milling machine experimental tests and one Haas run-to-failure experiment. The proposed anomaly detector is applied to synthetic data from simulations of the physics-based model at different operating conditions, measurement noise levels, and tool wear levels, and the methods were able to achieve an overall 92% accuracy in data with 1% noise. The anomaly detection methods based on hybrid model reduced the false alarms of either the data-driven or physical-based models alone, and are found to be capable of good online detection of tool wear.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2022

Hybrid data-driven and model-informed online tool wear detection in milling machines

Online anomaly detection↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Data-Driven Approach to Recognizing and Understanding Human Contributions to Aviation Safety

Data-driven decisions about safety management and design of safety-critical systems are limited by the available data, which influence, and are influenced by, how decision makers characterize problems and identify solutions. In the commercial aviation domain, large volumes of data are collected and analyzed on the failures and errors that result in infrequent incidents and accidents, but in the absence of data on safety-producing behaviors, safety management and system design decisions are based on a small sample of non-representative safety data. Analysis of aviation accident data suggests that human error is implicated in up to 80% of accidents, which has been used to justify future visions for aviation in which the roles of human operators are greatly diminished or eliminated in the interest of creating a safer aviation system. However, failure to fully consider the human contributions to aviation safety represents a significant and largely unrecognized risk when making policy decisions about safety management and system design. Opportunities exist to leverage the vast amount of data that have already been collected, or could be easily obtained, to increase our understanding of human contributions to safety in commercial aviation. This presentation will focus on those opportunities as well as the challenges associated with collecting and analyzing data on operators’ safety-producing behaviors.

Safety↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Data-Driven Framework for Predicting the Sorting and Screening Performance of an Integrated Biomass Feedstock Preprocessing System

The characteristics of mechanically sorted and screened lignocellulosic biomass, such as the mass contents of corn stover anatomical fractions (leaves, husks, stalks, cobs, etc.), can be used to calculate the intermediate feedstock quality attributes “yield” and “purity” that indicate the conversion efficiency of biocrude. No prior study has investigated the correlations from the characteristics of raw biomass and preprocessing unit operation parameters to those intermediate feedstock quality attributes. This work presents a data-driven framework for assessing and predicting the intermediate feedstock quality attributes in an integrated biomass feedstock preprocessing system. Our study used corn stover as a typical type of herbaceous biomass because of its abundance in the U.S. It began with data acquisition of moisture content, particle size distribution, and anatomical fractions of the materials after each unit operation in the system. The objective of this preprocessing system is to minimize husks and leaves and maximizing cobs and stalks by mechanically separating the materials into three streams via disc screen and air separator. Prototype neural network models were then developed to evaluate the feasibility of predicting process outcomes based on measurable parameters. It is found that incorporating physical constraints into these prediction models significantly enhances the accuracy of the predicted yield and purity against the ground truth data. The experimental data and model predictions indicate that decreasing throughput increases purity, while higher throughput results in lower purity. Finally, an optimization problem was introduced to search optimal combinations of feed material properties and preprocessing unit operation parameters, as the intermediate feedstock quality attributes – yield and purity, appeared to be competing factors. The study also suggests the continual need to improve the data-driven framework’s predictability by incorporating more accurate physical models to describe the dynamics in the preprocessing units such as the air separator.

09 - BIOMASS FUELS↗