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DOE OSTI2024

Use of physics to improve solar forecast: Part III, impacts of different cloud types

Cloud-type impacts present a great challenge to solar forecasting due to diverse and complex cloud-radiation interactions. This third part of our paper sequence seeks to address this challenge by quantifying the forecast accuracies under eight cloud types: cumulus (Cu), stratified clouds (St), altocumulus (Ac), altostratus (As), cirrostratus/anvil (Cr), cirrus (Ci), congestus (Co), deep convective clouds (Dc) across four physics-informed persistence models reported in Part I. To generalize the cloud impacts, the eight cloud types are further grouped into three cloud categories based on their common features: weak convective clouds, stratiform clouds, and strong convective clouds. Here, the decade-long (2001 ~ 2014) collocated measurements of irradiances and cloud types at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program South Great Plain (SGP) Central Facility site are used for model evaluation. Results reveal a clear performance hierarchy for global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI): best for weak convective clouds and cirrus, intermediate for stratiform clouds, and worst for strong convective clouds. Performance for diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) is less influenced by cloud types. Cloud albedo dominates all three irradiances for Dc, while both cloud albedo and cloud fraction are influential for other cloud types. A 12 %~33 % improvement in accuracy at 6-hour lead time compared to the benchmark smart model confirms the effectiveness of incorporating physics into the models for various cloud types; further improvements are expected by directly integrating cloud type information into forecasting models by modifying the physical formulation of cloud-radiation interaction, and/or using more advanced machine learning models.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Physics-informed neural networks for heterogeneous poroelastic media

This study presents a novel physics-informed neural network (PINN) framework for modeling poroelasticity in heterogeneous media with material interfaces. The approach introduces a composite neural network (CoNN) where separate neural networks predict displacement and pressure variables for each material. While sharing identical activation functions, these networks are independently trained for all other parameters. To address challenges posed by heterogeneous material interfaces, the CoNN is integrated with the Interface-PINNs (I-PINNs) framework (Sarma et al., Comput. Methods Appl. Mech. Eng. 429: 117135, 2024), allowing different activation functions across material interfaces. Further, this ensures accurate approximation of discontinuous solution fields and gradients. Performance and accuracy of this combined architecture were evaluated against the conventional PINNs approach, a single neural network (SNN) architecture, and the eXtended PINNs (XPINNs) framework through two one-dimensional benchmark examples with discontinuous material properties. The results show that the proposed CoNN with I-PINNs architecture achieves an RMSE that is two orders of magnitude better than the conventional PINNs approach and is at least 40 times faster than the SNN framework. Compared to XPINNs, the proposed method achieves an RMSE at least one order of magnitude better and is 40% faster.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

SO(3)-invariance of informed-graph-based deep neural network for anisotropic elastoplastic materials

This work examines the frame-invariance (and the lack thereof) exhibited in simulated anisotropic elasto-plastic responses generated from supervised machine learning of classical multi-layer and informed-graph-based neural networks, and proposes different remedies to fix this drawback. The inherent hierarchical relations among physical quantities and state variables in an elasto-plasticity model are first represented as informed, directed graphs, where three variations of the graph are tested. While feed-forward neural networks are used to train path-independent constitutive relations (e.g., elasticity), recurrent neural networks are used to replicate responses that depends on the deformation history, i.e. or path dependent. In dealing with the objectivity deficiency, we use the spectral form to represent tensors and, subsequently, three metrics, the Euclidean distance between the Euler Angles, the distance from the identity matrix, and geodesic on the unit sphere in Lie algebra, can be employed to constitute objective functions for the supervised machine learning. In this, the aim is to minimize the measured distance between the true and the predicted 3D rotation entities. Following this, we conduct numerical experiments on how these metrics, which are theoretically equivalent, may lead to differences in the efficiency of the supervised machine learning as well as the accuracy and robustness of the resultant models. Neural network models trained with tensors represented in component form for a given Cartesian coordinate system are used as a benchmark. Our numerical tests show that, even given the same amount of information and data, the quality of the anisotropic elasto-plasticity model is highly sensitive to the way tensors are represented and measured. The results reveal that using a loss function based on geodesic on the unit sphere in Lie algebra together with an informed, directed graph yield significantly more accurate rotation prediction than the other tested approaches.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Adaptive Interface-PINNs (AdaI-PINNs) for transient diffusion: Applications to forward and inverse problems in heterogeneous media

We model transient diffusion in heterogeneous materials using a novel physics-informed neural networks framework (PINNs) termed Adaptive interface physics-informed neural networks or AdaI-PINNs (Roy et al. arXiv preprint arXiv:2406.04626, 2024). AdaI-PINNs utilize different activation functions with trainable slopes tailored to each material region within the computational domain, allowing for a fully automated and adaptive PINNs approach to model interface problems with strongly and weakly discontinuous solutions. To enhance its performance in highly heterogeneous transient diffusion systems, we prescribe a suite of robust practices, including appropriate non-dimensionalization of equations, a biased sampling method, Glorot initialization, and the hard enforcement of boundary and initial conditions. Here we evaluate the efficacy of the proposed method on several benchmark forward and inverse problems. Comparative studies on one-dimensional and two-dimensional benchmark problems reveal that the modified AdaI-PINNs outperform its unmodified counterpart, achieving root-mean-square errors that are at least two orders of magnitude better in forward problems. For inverse problems, the maximum errors in the approximated diffusion coefficients by modified AdaI-PINNs are four orders of magnitude better than those of the unmodified version. Additionally, modified AdaI-PINNs demonstrate improved stability in problems with large material mismatches.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Combining Observations and Models: A Review of the CARDAMOM Framework for Data‐Constrained Terrestrial Ecosystem Modeling

The rapid increase in the volume and variety of terrestrial biosphere observations (i.e., remote sensing data and in situ measurements) offers a unique opportunity to derive ecological insights, refine process‐based models, and improve forecasting for decision support. However, despite their potential, ecological observations have primarily been used to benchmark process‐based models, as many past and current models lack the capability to directly integrate observations and their associated uncertainties for parameterization. In contrast, data assimilation frameworks such as the CARbon DAta MOdel fraMework (CARDAMOM) and its suite of process‐based models, known as the Data Assimilation Linked Ecosystem Carbon Model (DALEC), are specifically designed for model‐data fusion. This review, motivated by a recent CARDAMOM community workshop, examines the development and applications of CARDAMOM, with an emphasis on its role in advancing ecosystem process understanding. CARDAMOM employs a Bayesian approach, using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to enable data‐driven calibration of DALEC parameters and initial states (i.e., carbon pool sizes) through observation operators. CARDAMOM's unique ability to retrieve localized model process parameters from diverse datasets—ranging from in situ measurements to global satellite observations—makes it a highly flexible tool for analyzing spatially variable ecosystem responses to environmental change. However, assimilating these data also presents challenges, including data quality issues that propagate into model skill, as well as trade‐offs between model complexity, parameter equifinality, and predictive performance. We discuss potential solutions to these challenges, such as reducing parameter equifinality by incorporating new observations. This review also offers community recommendations for incorporating emerging datasets, integrating machine learning techniques, strengthening collaboration with remote sensing, field, and modeling communities, and expanding CARDAMOM's relevance for localized ecosystem monitoring and decision‐making. CARDAMOM enables a deep, mechanistic understanding of terrestrial ecosystem dynamics that cannot be achieved through empirical analyses of observational datasets or weakly constrained models alone.

Bayesian inference↗

DOE OSTI2024

“Understanding Robustness Lottery”: A Geometric Visual Comparative Analysis of Neural Network Pruning Approaches

Deep learning approaches have provided state-of-the-art performance in many applications by relying on large and overparameterized neural networks. However, such networks are very brittle and are difficult to deploy on resource-limited platforms. Model pruning, i.e., reducing the size of the network, is a widely adopted strategy that can lead to a more robust and compact model. Many heuristics exist for model pruning, but our understanding of the pruning process remains limited due to the black-box nature of a neural network model. Empirical studies show that some heuristics improve performance whereas others can make models more brittle. Here, this work aims to shed light on how different pruning methods alter the network’s internal feature representation and the corresponding impact on model performance. To facilitate a comprehensive comparison and characterization of the high-dimensional model feature space, we introduce a visual geometric analysis of feature representations. We evaluated a set of critical geometric concepts decomposed from the commonly adopted classification loss and used them to design a visualization system to compare and highlight the impact of pruning on model performance and feature representation. The proposed tool provides an environment for an in-depth comparison of pruning methods and a comprehensive understanding of how the model responds to common data corruption. By leveraging the proposed visualization, machine learning researchers can reveal the similarities between pruning methods and redundancy in robustness evaluation benchmarks, obtain geometric insights about the differences between pruned models that achieve superior robustness performance, and identify samples that are robust or fragile to model pruning and common data corruption.

Li, Zhimin [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (Uni↗

DOE OSTI2021

Fast convolutional neural networks on FPGAs with hls4ml

We introduce an automated tool for deploying ultra low-latency, low-power deep neural networks with convolutional layers on field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs). By extending the hls4ml library, we demonstrate an inference latency of 5 µs using convolutional architectures, targeting microsecond latency applications like those at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. Considering benchmark models trained on the Street View House Numbers Dataset, we demonstrate various methods for model compression in order to fit the computational constraints of a typical FPGA device used in trigger and data acquisition systems of particle detectors. In particular, we discuss pruning and quantization-aware training, and demonstrate how resource utilization can be significantly reduced with little to no loss in model accuracy. We show that the FPGA critical resource consumption can be reduced by 97% with zero loss in model accuracy, and by 99% when tolerating a 6% accuracy degradation.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2021

Deep potential generation scheme and simulation protocol for the Li 10 GeP 2 S 12 -type superionic conductors

We report solid-state electrolyte materials with superior lithium ionic conductivities are vital to the next-generation Li-ion batteries. Molecular dynamics could provide atomic scale information to understand the diffusion process of Li-ion in these superionic conductor materials. Here, we implement the deep potential generator to set up an efficient protocol to automatically generate interatomic potentials for Li 10 GeP 2 S 12 -type solid-state electrolyte materials (Li 10 GeP 2 S 12 , Li 10 SiP 2 S 12 , and Li 10 SnP 2 S 12 ). The reliability and accuracy of the fast interatomic potentials are validated. With the potentials, we extend the simulation of the diffusion process to a wide temperature range (300 K–1000 K) and systems with large size (~1000 atoms). Important technical aspects such as the statistical error and size effect are carefully investigated, and benchmark tests including the effect of density functional, thermal expansion, and configurational disorder are performed. The computed data that consider these factors agree well with the experimental results, and we find that the three structures show different behaviors with respect to configurational disorder. Our work paves the way for further research on computation screening of solid-state electrolyte materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Scalable Risk Assessment of Rare Events in Power Systems With Uncertain Wind Generation and Loads

Risk assessment of rare events has become increasingly important in power system planning and operation with the increasing integration of renewable energy and the presence of system uncertainties. However, quantifying the risk posed by rare events via the traditional method, i.e., Monte Carlo sampling (MCS), incurs substantial computational expense stemming from the vast ensemble of power flow simulations. To accelerate the assessment, this paper proposes a Deep Neural Network (DNN)-kernelized vector-valued Gaussian Process (VVGP) approach with excellent computational efficiency while maintaining high accuracy. Consequently, serving as a surrogate model for the power flow solver, the DNN-kernelized VVGP enables significantly faster but accurate risk assessment compared to the power flow solver. The developed surrogate model evaluates low-order N - k events that contain more than 90% instances by adeptly capturing the topological features while the high-order N - k events are assessed via a power flow solver, thereby striking a balance between computational efficiency and uncertainty quantification accuracy. Moreover, the model incorporates a Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier to resample concerning low-probability tail events to counteract the biases potentially introduced during the DNN-kernelized VVGP evaluations. Simulations conducted on the modified IEEE 24-bus, 118-bus, and European 1354-bus systems demonstrate that the proposed method maintains the accuracy benchmark set by MCS while significantly reducing computational demands in large-scale power systems as compared to other state-of-the-art methods.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

LSTM-Based Data Integration to Improve Snow Water Equivalent Prediction and Diagnose Error Sources

Accurate prediction of snow water equivalent (SWE) can be valuable for water resource managers. Recently, deep learning methods such as long short-term memory (LSTM) have exhibited high accuracy in simulating hydrologic variables and can integrate lagged observations to improve prediction, but their benefits were not clear for SWE simulations. Here we tested an LSTM network with data integration (DI) for SWE in the western United States to integrate 30-day-lagged or 7-day-lagged observations of either SWE or satellite-observed snow cover fraction (SCF) to improve future predictions. SCF proved beneficial only for shallow-snow sites during snowmelt, while lagged SWE integration significantly improved prediction accuracy for both shallow- and deep-snow sites. The median Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSE) in temporal testing improved from 0.92 to 0.97 with 30-day-lagged SWE integration, and root-mean-square error (RMSE) and the difference between estimated and observed peak SWE values d max were reduced by 41% and 57%, respectively. DI effectively mitigated accumulated model and forcing errors that would otherwise be persistent. Moreover, by applying DI to different observations (30-day-lagged, 7-day-lagged), we revealed the spatial distribution of errors with different persistent lengths. For example, integrating 30-day-lagged SWE was ineffective for ephemeral snow sites in the southwestern United States, but significantly reduced monthly-scale biases for regions with stable seasonal snowpack such as high-elevation sites in California. These biases are likely attributable to large interannual variability in snowfall or site-specific snow redistribution patterns that can accumulate to impactful levels over time for nonephemeral sites. These results set up benchmark levels and provide guidance for future model improvement strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

On the use of neural networks for energy reconstruction in high-granularity calorimeters

We contrasted the performance of deep neural networks — Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and Graph Neural Network (GNN) — to current state of the art energy regression methods in a finely 3D-segmented calorimeter simulated by GEANT4. This comparative benchmark gives us some insight to assess the particular latent signals neural network methods exploit to achieve superior resolution. A CNN trained solely on a pure sample of pions achieved substantial improvement in the energy resolution for both single pions and jets over the conventional approaches. It maintained good performance for electron and photon reconstruction. We also used the Graph Neural Network (GNN) with edge convolution to assess the importance of timing information in the shower development for improved energy reconstruction. We implement a simple simulation based correction to the energy sum derived from the fraction of energy deposited in the electromagnetic shower component. This serves as an approximate dual-readout analogue for our benchmark comparison. Although this study does not include the simulation of detector effects, such as electronic noise, the margin of improvement seems robust enough to suggest these benefits will endure in real-world application. We also find reason to infer that the CNN/GNN methods leverage latent features that concur with our current understanding of the physics of calorimeter measurement.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

DeepM&Mnet: Inferring the electroconvection multiphysics fields based on operator approximation by neural networks

Electroconvection is a multiphysics problem involving coupling of the flow field with the electric field as well as the cation and anion concentration fields. Here, we use electroconvection as a benchmark problem to put forward a new data assimilation framework, the DeepM&Mnet, for simulating multiphysics and multiscale problems at speeds much faster than standard numerical methods using pre-trained neural networks. We first pre-train DeepONets that can predict independently each field, given general inputs from the rest of the fields of the coupled system. DeepONets can approximate nonlinear operators and are composed of two sub-networks, a branch net for the input fields and a trunk net for the locations of the output field. DeepONets, which are extremely fast, are used as building blocks in the DeepM&Mnet and form constraints for the multiphysics solution along with some sparse available measurements of any of the fields. We demonstrate the new methodology and document the accuracy of each individual DeepONet, and subsequently we present two different DeepM&Mnet architectures that infer accurately and efficiently 2D electroconvection fields for unseen electric potentials. Furthermore, the DeepM&Mnet framework is general and can be applied for building any complex multiphysics and multiscale models based on very few measurements using pre-trained DeepONets in a “plug-and-play” mode.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

A data-driven method for modelling dissipation rates in stratified turbulence

We present a deep probabilistic convolutional neural network (PCNN) model for predicting local values of small-scale mixing properties in stratified turbulent flows, namely the dissipation rates of turbulent kinetic energy and density variance, $\varepsilon$ and $\chi$ . Inputs to the PCNN are vertical columns of velocity and density gradients, motivated by data typically available from microstructure profilers in the ocean. The architecture is designed to enable the model to capture several characteristic features of stratified turbulence, in particular the dependence of small-scale isotropy on the buoyancy Reynolds number $Re_b:=\varepsilon /(\nu N^2)$ , where $\nu$ is the kinematic viscosity and $N$ is the background buoyancy frequency, the correlation between suitably locally averaged density gradients and turbulence intensity and the importance of capturing the tails of the probability distribution functions of values of dissipation. Empirically modified versions of commonly used isotropic models for $\varepsilon$ and $\chi$ that depend only on vertical derivatives of density and velocity are proposed based on the asymptotic regimes $Re_b\ll 1$ and $Re_b\gg 1$ , and serve as an instructive benchmark for comparison with the data-driven approach. When trained and tested on a simulation of stratified decaying turbulence which accesses a range of turbulent regimes (associated with differing values of $Re_b$ ), the PCNN outperforms assumptions of isotropy significantly as $Re_b$ decreases, and additionally demonstrates improvements over the fitted empirical models. A differential sensitivity analysis of the PCNN facilitates a comparison with the theoretical models and provides a physical interpretation of the features enabling it to make improved predictions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Reservoir Thermal Energy Storage Benchmarking (Rev. 3)

A benchmarking analysis of RTES research funded by GTO through the Beyond Batteries projects was conducted against the ESGC to see where they fit within the identified ESGC Use Cases. The projects were found to advance knowledge in multiple ESGC use cases, either directly or in some cases, indirectly as enabling technologies. This analysis is helpful to understand where RTES and associated research fits into the larger discussion around energy storage technologies. Also, a retrospective analysis of the Beyond Batteries projects was conducted to evaluate what the projects learned and how the results can be applied to advance the value of RTES. Major results of each of the studies are summarized in Table 2. Additionally, a comparative metrics analysis for RTES was completed to understand where RTES lies within the energy storage industry. Metrics for evaluation of RTES and its comparison to other storage technologies were selected and ranges of their values compiled. The selected metrics – LCOE (levelized cost of energy), capital costs, roundtrip efficiency, energy storage capacity, and storage time – were chosen based on data availability and have a particularly strong influence on the potential deployment of a storage technology. Charts which compare the metrics are presented in section 4.3 and show ranges for each of the 10 selected technologies. However, due to a lack of domestic operational facilities, values for RTES and for portions of the remaining technologies are based on theoretical modeling and studies of best-case scenarios. LCOE estimates for RTES fall within the lower reaches of Figure 15, but nevertheless amount to 2 – 5 times the ESGC Roadmap goal for LCOE, for example in the Facilitating and Evolving Grid Use Case. Capital costs for RTES sit on the higher end (Figure 16) but are expected to decrease as new projects are developed and the technology is refined. The theoretical roundtrip efficiency reported for RTES varies from mid to high percentages (Figure 17) with efficiencies upwards of 93% in modeled scenarios in the Portland Basin (Bershaw et al.,2020). RTES is also expected to have the largest energy storage capacities and longest storage times, likely matched only by lower efficiency hydrogen storage. To better assess the role that RTES could play in energy storage we examined it’s potential in the U.S. The potential depends on many factors. Recently, many researchers have started looking at deep sedimentary basins, depleted oil and gas fields, and basalt formations as potential targets for RTES development. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has analyzed various cities and shown substantial RTES potential in the cooling sector (Pepin et al., 2021). By modeling RTES in low-quality groundwater (e.g., brackish), it is shown to be favorable across the U.S. with particular suitability in the Illinois Basin, Coastal Plains, and Basin and Range regions. Seasonal RTES operations have also been modeled in the Portland Basin by those at the USGS and Portland State University to simulate an RTES system supplying heating loads needed for the Oregon Health and Science University. Simulations suggest that high conductive heat loss in the initial years exists but tends to decrease with increasing time and development of the resource due to self-insulating nature of the basalts (Burns et al., 2020). Other national laboratory efforts are taking a close look at many of the technical issues involved with RTES (McLing et al., 2019, McLing et al., 2022). These include difficulties in understanding geochemical, hydrogeological, mechanical, and microbiological changes at such elevated temperatures and operational scenarios. Major gaps in research are identified and suggested for future work. With this increased focus to understand how to make RTES successful in the U.S., this technology could be a potential solution to many of the nation’s energy storage problems. For the energy independence of this country, the DOE should prioritize de-risking this technology by making future investments in pilot-scale demonstrations to attract potential investors.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2023

A Blind Convolutional Deep Autoencoder for Spectral Unmixing of Hyperspectral Images Over Waterbodies

Harmful algal blooms have dangerous repercussions for biodiversity, the ecosystem, and public health. Automatic identification based on remote sensing hyperspectral image analysis provides a valuable mechanism for extracting the spectral signatures of harmful algal blooms and their respective percentage in a region of interest. This paper proposes a new model called a non-symmetrical autoencoder for spectral unmixing to perform endmember extraction and fractional abundance estimation. The model is assessed in benchmark datasets, such as Jasper Ridge and Samson. Additionally, a case study of the HSI2 image acquired by NASA over Lake Erie in 2017 is conducted for extracting optical water types. The results using the proposed model for the benchmark datasets improve unmixing performance, as indicated by the spectral angle distance compared to five baseline algorithms. Improved results were obtained for various metrics. In the Samson dataset, the proposed model outperformed other methods for water (0.060) and soil (0.025) endmember extraction. Moreover, the proposed method exhibited superior performance in terms of mean spectral angle distance compared to the other five baseline algorithms. The non-symmetrical autoencoder for the spectral unmixing approach achieved better results for abundance map estimation, with a root mean square error of 0.091 for water and 0.187 for soil, compared to the ground truth. For the Jasper Ridge dataset, the non-symmetrical autoencoder for the spectral unmixing model excelled in the tree (0.039) and road (0.068) endmember extraction and also demonstrated improved results for water abundance maps (0.1121). The proposed model can identify the presence of chlorophyll-a in waterbodies. Chlorophyll-a is an essential indicator of the presence of the different concentrations of macrophytes and cyanobacteria. The non-symmetrical autoencoder for spectral unmixing achieves a value of 0.307 for the spectral angle distance metric compared to a reference ground truth spectral signature of chlorophyll-a. The source code for the proposed model, as implemented in this manuscript, can be found at https://github.com/EstefaniaAlfaro/autoencoder_owt_spectral.git.

hyperspectral imaging↗

DOE OSTI2024

First Search for Dark-Trident Processes Using the MicroBooNE Detector

We present a first search for dark-trident scattering in a neutrino beam using a dataset corresponding to 7.2 × 10 20 protons on target taken with the MicroBooNE detector at Fermilab. Proton interactions in the neutrino target at the main injector produce π 0 and η mesons, which could decay into dark-matter (DM) particles mediated via a dark photon A ′ . A convolutional neural network is trained to identify interactions of the DM particles in the liquid-argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) exploiting its imagelike reconstruction capability. In the absence of a DM signal, we provide limits at the 90% confidence level on the squared kinematic mixing parameter ϵ 2 as a function of the dark-photon mass in the range 10 ≤ M A ′ ≤ 400 MeV . The limits cover previously unconstrained parameter space for the production of fermion or scalar DM particles χ for two benchmark models with mass ratios M χ / M A ′ = 0.6 and 2 and for dark fine-structure constants 0.1 ≤ α D ≤ 1 . Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗