SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “design under uncertainty”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 253 records · Page 14

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating uncertainty-based active learning for accelerating the generalization of molecular property prediction

Deep learning models have proven to be a powerful tool for the prediction of molecular properties for applications including drug design and the development of energy storage materials. However, in order to learn accurate and robust structure–property mappings, these models require large amounts of data which can be a challenge to collect given the time and resource-intensive nature of experimental material characterization efforts. Additionally, such models fail to generalize to new types of molecular structures that were not included in the model training data. The acceleration of material development through uncertainty-guided experimental design has the promise to significantly reduce the data requirements and enable faster generalization to new types of materials. To evaluate the potential of such approaches for electrolyte design applications, we perform comprehensive evaluation of existing uncertainty quantification methods on the prediction of two relevant molecular properties - aqueous solubility and redox potential. We develop novel evaluation methods to probe the utility of the uncertainty estimates for both in-domain and out-of-domain data sets. Finally, we leverage selected uncertainty estimation methods for active learning to evaluate their capacity to support experimental design.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Advances in Modeling Capabilities for Critical Mineral Separation Technologies: A PrOMMiS Overview

This is an oral presentation at the TechConnect conference on the work developed by PrOMMiS. PrOMMiS builds on and extends capabilities developed within the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems (IDAES), Integrated Platform, and Water Treatment Technoeconomic Assessment Platform (WaterTAP), which have been successfully leveraged by other Department of Energy research areas. The open-source toolkit facilitates validation, reproducibility, and accountability, allowing for easy extension of the framework to other systems. This talk presents an overview of the PrOMMiS capabilities, including unit model library, advances in thermophysical properties models, and capital cost libraries for simulation and optimization of mineral processing technologies. The PrOMMiS applications include (1) conceptual design and superstructure optimization for screening different process configurations and identifying promising technologies; (2) dynamic modeling and optimization to enable the creation of digital twins; (3) surrogate modeling tools to leverage data when predictive thermodynamic models are not currently available; (4) technical risk reduction via uncertainty quantification and robust optimization to identify process designs that are robust to process variability and uncertainties; and (5) deployment of uncertainty quantification tools to maximize knowledge gained from experimental campaigns, while reducing the number of experiments required

critical minerals and materials↗

DOE OSTI2020

Jet substructure from dark sector showers

We examine the robustness of collider phenomenology predictions for a dark sector scenario with QCD-like properties. Pair production of dark quarks at the LHC can result in a wide variety of signatures, depending on the details of the new physics model. A particularly challenging signal results when prompt production induces a parton shower that yields a high multiplicity of collimated dark hadrons with subsequent decays to Standard Model hadrons. The final states contain jets whose substructure encodes their non-QCD origin. This is a relatively subtle signature of strongly coupled beyond the Standard Model dynamics, and thus it is crucial that analyses incorporate systematic errors to account for the approximations that are being made when modeling the signal. We estimate theoretical uncertainties for a canonical substructure observable designed to be sensitive to the gauge structure of the underlying object, the two-point energy correlator $ {e}_2^{\left(\beta \right)} $ , by computing envelopes between resummed analytic distributions and numerical results from Pythia. We explore the separability against the QCD background as the confinement scale, number of colors, number of flavors, and dark quark masses are varied. Additionally, we investigate the uncertainties inherent to modeling dark sector hadronization. Simple estimates are provided that quantify one’s ability to distinguish these dark sector jets from the overwhelming QCD background. Such a search would benefit from theory advances to improve the predictions, and the increase in statistics using the data to be collected at the high luminosity LHC.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty-Proof Hosting Capacity with Surrogate Affine Policy

Physical constraints must be enforced when dis-tributed energy resources, such as PV, are integrated into distribution network. Hosting capacity (HC) is thus introduced to define the maximum renewable that distribution system can accommodate. When the grid is further pushed towards low-carbon, many research efforts are devoted to increasing HC. Security and cost-efficiency become even more important in determining HC. This work proposes an uncertainty-proof HC with surrogate affine policy. Flexible resources are leveraged to increase HC. We propose a novel hybrid two-stage AC model with variable uncertainty set. An iterative algorithm is designed to solve the problem. The proposed model and solution approach are validated in modified 141-node feeders, and HC performance is also analyzed.

hosting capacity↗

DOE OSTI2026

Robust Optimal Experimental Design of Infinite-Dimensional Bayesian Nonlinear Inverse Problems

Abstract. We consider robust optimal experimental design (ROED) for nonlinear Bayesian inverse problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs). An optimal design is one that maximizes some utility quantifying the quality of the solution of an inverse problem. However, the optimal design is dependent on elements of the inverse problem such as the simulation model, the prior, or the measurement error model. ROED aims to produce an optimal design that is aware of the additional uncertainties encoded in the inverse problem and remains optimal even after variations in them. We follow a worst-case scenario approach to develop a new framework for robust optimal design of nonlinear Bayesian inverse problems. The proposed framework (a) is scalable and designed for infinite-dimensional Bayesian nonlinear inverse problems constrained by PDEs; (b) develops efficient approximations of the utility, namely the expected information gain; (c) employs eigenvalue sensitivity techniques to develop analytical forms and efficient evaluation methods of the gradient of the utility with respect to the uncertainties against which we wish to be robust; and (d) employs a probabilistic optimization paradigm that properly defines and efficiently solves the resulting combinatorial max-min optimization problem. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is illustrated for optimal sensor placement problem in an inverse problem governed by an elliptic PDE.

Chowdhary, Abhijit↗

DOE OSTI2025

Investigating performance and variability of NIF ICF experiments with deep learning

The parameter space involved in designing an inertial confinement fusion shot at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) is massively multi-dimensional and the cost of a single shot makes a comprehensive set of sensitivity studies in the laboratory impractical. The use of machine learning to overcome these challenges has gained popularity and has had several successful applications by the scientific community. We extend on these efforts by training a neural network (NN) on information about the experimental design, engineering elements, and drive asymmetry to predict with uncertainty the neutron yield of an experiment. We find the measured and model predicted values are in good agreement, with an R 2 value of 0.91 for a randomly selected test dataset. Almost all the predicted 95% credible intervals contain the corresponding measured value for both training and test datasets. We identify correlations picked up by the NN between the shot design, yield, and variability and use them to motivate shot sensitivity studies. The first shot to exceed the Lawson-like ignition criteria (N210808) was conducted at the NIF and subsequent shots studied the design’s robustness. In a follow-up shot to N210808, our model predicts capsule quality to be the main performance degradation mechanism that prevented the shot from repeating previous performance levels. Shot N221204 was the first shot to exceed a target energy gain of 1. Our model predicts increased yield with reduced coast time for a N221204 study and greater variability for designs with lower peak powers at constant yield. The model’s fast prediction speed and uncertainty prediction are useful for identifying interesting design paths that could warrant further investigation with conventional simulations to search for robust high yield designs.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

BioSTEAMDevelopmentGroup/biosteam

BioSTEAM is a fast and flexible package for the design, simulation, and techno-economic analysis of biorefineries under uncertainty. BioSTEAM’s framework is built to streamline and automate early-stage technology evaluations and to enable rigorous sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. Complete biorefinery configurations are available at the Bioindustrial-Park GitHub repository, BioSTEAM’s premier repository for biorefinery models and results. The long-term growth and maintenance of BioSTEAM is supported through both community-led development and the research institutions invested in BioSTEAM. Through the open-source and community-lead platform, BioSTEAM aims to foster communication and transparency within the biorefinery research community for an integrated effort to expedite the evaluation of candidate biofuels and bioproducts. Additionally, an agile life cycle assessment (LCA) platform has been designed to interface with BioSTEAM, BioSTEAM-LCA. This open-source, installable package allows users to perform streamlined LCAs of biorefineries. The focus of BioSTEAM-LCA is to streamline and automate early-stage environmental impact analyses of processes and technologies, and to enable rigorous sensitivity and uncertainty analyses linking process design, performance, economics, and environmental impacts.

Cortes-Peña, Yoel↗

DOE OSTI2020

BioSTEAMDevelopmentGroup/thermosteam

Cortes-Peña, Yoel↗

DOE OSTI2020

Risk Informed, Performance-Based, Technology-Inclusive Regulatory Infrastructure: Technology-Inclusive Determination of Mechanistic Source Terms for Offsite Dose-Related Assessments for Advanced Nuclear Reactor Facilities

This report summarizes a risk informed, performance-based and technology-inclusive approach to determine source terms for dose related assessments at advanced nuclear facilities. This approach uses a graded process which allows both the non-mechanistic source terms calculation methods, which adopt conservative approaches and assumptions based on known physical and chemical principles, and more importantly the mechanistic source term calculation methods, which consider design-specific scenarios and use best estimate models with uncertainty quantification for a range of licensing basis events (LBEs), to be used for the design and licensing of advanced nuclear technologies. The source terms developed with this graded approach, and radionuclide inventories elsewhere in the facility that are determined during source term analysis, can be used to address licensing issues to support the application processes of 10 CFR Part 50 for a construction permit and operating license or 10 CFR Part 52 for a Combined Operating License (COL), Standard Design Certification, Early Site Permit, Standard Design Approval or Manufacturing License. They can also be used for other purposes including equipment environmental qualification, control room habitability analyses, and assessments of severe accident risks in environmental impact statements. There are many advanced reactor concepts being developed including high temperature gas-cooled reactor (HGTR), sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR), lead-cooled fast reactor (LFR), molten salt reactor (MSR), micro-reactor, etc. The graded approach presented in this report for source terms determination is, to the extent possible, generic to any of these reactor designs and to future reactor designs. This report provides information on the review of the regulatory foundation for use of conservative bounding source terms as well as event-specific mechanistic source terms for advanced nuclear reactor designs.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Robust vehicle routing under uncertainty via branch-price-and-cut

Here, this paper contemplates how branch-price-and-cut solvers can be employed along with the robust optimization paradigm to address parametric uncertainty in the context of vehicle routing problems. In this setting, given postulated uncertainty sets for customer demands and vehicle travel times, one aims to identify a set of cost-effective routes for vehicles to traverse, such that the vehicle capacities and customer time window constraints are respected under any anticipated demand and travel time realization, respectively. To tackle such problems, we propose a novel approach that combines cutting-plane techniques with an advanced branch-price-and-cut algorithm. Specifically, we use deterministic pricing procedures to generate "partially robust" vehicle routes and then utilize robust versions of rounded capacity inequalities and infeasible path elimination constraints to guarantee complete robust feasibility of routing designs against demand and travel time uncertainty. In contrast to recent approaches that modify the pricing algorithm, our approach is both modular and versatile. It permits the use of advanced branch-price-and-cut technologies without significant modification, while it can admit a variety of uncertainty sets that are commonly used in robust optimization but could not be previously employed in a branch-price-and-cut setting.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Adjusting neutrino interaction models and evaluating uncertainties using NOvA near detector data

The two-detector design of the NOvA neutrino oscillation experiment, in which two functionally identical detectors are exposed to an intense neutrino beam, aids in canceling leading order effects of cross-section uncertainties. However, limited knowledge of neutrino interaction cross sections still gives rise to some of the largest systematic uncertainties in current oscillation measurements. We show contemporary models of neutrino interactions to be discrepant with data from NOvA, consistent with discrepancies seen in other experiments. Adjustments to neutrino interaction models in GENIE are presented, creating an effective model that improves agreement with our data. We also describe systematic uncertainties on these models, including uncertainties on multi-nucleon interactions from a newly developed procedure using NOvA near detector data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Identifying Bayesian optimal experiments for uncertain biochemical pathway models

Abstract Pharmacodynamic (PD) models are mathematical models of cellular reaction networks that include drug mechanisms of action. These models are useful for studying predictive therapeutic outcomes of novel drug therapies in silico. However, PD models are known to possess significant uncertainty with respect to constituent parameter data, leading to uncertainty in the model predictions. Furthermore, experimental data to calibrate these models is often limited or unavailable for novel pathways. In this study, we present a Bayesian optimal experimental design approach for improving PD model prediction accuracy. We then apply our method using simulated experimental data to account for uncertainty in hypothetical laboratory measurements. This leads to a probabilistic prediction of drug performance and a quantitative measure of which prospective laboratory experiment will optimally reduce prediction uncertainty in the PD model. The methods proposed here provide a way forward for uncertainty quantification and guided experimental design for models of novel biological pathways.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Front-End Engineering and Design: Project Tundra Carbon Capture System (Final Report)

As the next phase of Project Tundra, Minnkota Power Cooperative (MPC) completed a front-end engineering and design (FEED) study to install a post-combustion CO 2 capture system (CCS) at the MPC operated (Square Butte Electric Cooperative-owned) Milton R. Young Station (MRYS) Unit 2 (MRY2), a 477-MW power plant fueled by North Dakota lignite. The project team completed the FEED with Fluor’s Econamine FG Plus℠ (EFG+) technology and is taking the next steps leading up to start of construction. Team members included FEED technical lead Fluor Enterprises (Fluor); owner’s engineer and balance of plant (BOP) engineer Burns & McDonnell (BMcD); leading carbon capture consultants (David Greeson Consulting, Hunt International Energy Services); environmental consultants (AECOM, Agora Environmental), other BOP engineering consultants (Golder Associates, Nels); cost-share funding agency, the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC); and the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC). Project Tundra’s goal is to implement carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in North Dakota, while preserving the use of lignite. Future options could lead to revitalizing legacy oil fields and creating a new CO 2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR) industry. The topic of this report is the FEED study for the carbon dioxide capture portion of Project Tundra. Building on the findings of a pre-FEED study for MRY2, the key deliverables contained in this FEED study are: a) design, costing, and performance data needed to commence project financing activities; b) engineering and material balances required to file for all project permits; and c) a final project schedule. Based on the results of the previous pre-FEED study, MPC and its team evaluated two options to provide the large amount of steam needed to operate the CCS: 1) installation of new natural gas package boilers and a new pipeline to supply natural gas to the facility and 2) extraction of steam from the existing MRYS steam turbine generator. The FEED study was performed using the package boilers option, as it was deemed to have the lowest technical risk, overall cost, and cost uncertainty. A key feature of the design, however, was the mixing the natural gas boilers’ flue gas with the MRY2 flue gas. This increased the size of the CCS system. This design also enabled the tie-in of Unit 1 flue gas for times when Unit 2 is offline. The CCS was designed to capture a combined 12,978 short tons per day (STPD) of CO 2 from the flue gases produced by the existing MRY Unit 2 along with flue gas produced by the new boiler package within the CCS. The 12,978 STPD CO 2 capture is achieved by normally processing 100% of the total available MRY Unit 2 flue gas (considering full load operation) and 100% of the boiler package flue gas, then removing 90% of the CO 2 available from the processed flue gas streams.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Tutorial for Generating Correlated Random Samples in the Context of Replica Cross Section Data Used in the Propagation of Uncertainty (Second Edition)

The following sample problem write-ups are designed as a tutorial for generating correlated random samples (e.g., replica multi-group cross section data) for use in propagation of uncertainty problems. These problems were set up and solved in MATLAB, but any programming environment with basic statistical functions can be used to generate similar results. Since linear sample problems were chosen, helpful comparisons to the “sandwich” rule propagation of uncertainty are available and were used.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Measurements of the thermal conductivity of reference liquids using a modified transient hot-wire needle probe

Many power generation processes feature some type of working fluid that plays a critical role in the transfer of heat throughout the system. To optimize thermal efficiencies, an accurate characterization of the temperature-dependent thermal conductivity of the fluid is needed. Herein, this study develops a time-domain Modified Transient Hot-wire Needle Probe to overcome phenomena that have impaired traditional measurement techniques when the fluid is both corrosive and at an elevated temperature. First, the physical design of the instrument is presented to demonstrate features that limit interference from corrosion, electrical conduction, and convective and radiative heat transfer. Next, a governing equation for 1D (radial) heat conduction is fully developed using the thermal quadrupoles technique. A finite-element study is performed for validation. A sensitivity analysis is done to assess the time-dependent influence of critical parameters in the governing equation for several samples. Finally, thermal conductivity measurements are presented for seven different liquid substances by fitting the thermal model to experimental data across a range of temperatures. Reference correlations are included for comparison. The sample thermal conductivity and ambient temperature of the experimental conditions range from 0.125–16.5$\frac{W}{m·K}$ and 10–400°C, respectively. The total uncertainty, comprised of both the experimental design and fitting process, of all measurements is quantified.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2020

Progress on the R-matrix Analysis for the n+ 181 Ta Evaluation [Slides]

This presentation discusses how nuclear data evaluations can influence the accuracy of computational nuclear design calculations. It also discusses the motivation for a new evaluation of 181 Ta. The goals of the evaluations are to generate a set of resonance parameters in the Resolved Resonance Region (RRR) that extends up to 2.6 keV, to generate a set of average resonance parameters in the Unresolved Resonance Region (URR) up to 100 keV (derived from the RRR parameters), and to generate covariance information for both RRR and URR. The presentation discusses how several different experimental data sets will be fit simultaneously in the evaluation of 181 Ta. It states that the level density of 181 Ta can make R-matrix fitting a challenge as the width of the levels increase with energy (as well as decreasing experimental resolution) and the measured resonances can overlap. The presentation concludes by discussing R-matrix analysis and covariance information as the latter is important when propagated to quantify the uncertainty on output responses of nuclear design calculations such as the multiplication factor k .

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Nonnuclear Experimental Capabilities to Support Design, Development, and Demonstration of Microreactors

This work provides a summary of selected experimental capabilities being developed to support nonnuclear testing and demonstration of technology in support of microreactors under the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Microreactor Program. Major capabilities include the Single Primary Heat Extraction and Removal Emulator (SPHERE) and the Microreactor Agile Non-nuclear Experimental Test Bed (MAGNET). The SPHERE facility allows for controlled testing of the steady-state and transient heat rejection capabilities of a single heat pipe using electrical heaters that simulate nuclear heating. The facility is capable of monitoring axial temperature profiles along the heat pipe and surrounding test articles during startup, steady-state operation, and transients. Instrumentation includes noncontact infrared thermal imaging, surface thermocouples, spatially distributed fiber optic temperature and strain sensors, electrical power meters, and a water-cooled, gas-gap calorimeter for quantifying heat rejection from the heat pipe. The facility can be operated under both vacuum and inert-gas conditions. The MAGNET facility is a large-scale, 250-kW electrically heated microreactor test bed to enable nonnuclear experimental evaluation of a variety of microreactor concepts. It can be supplied to electrically heat a scaled section of a microreactor and further test the capabilities of heat rejection systems. The initial MAGNET experiments will support technology maturation and reduce uncertainty and risk associated with the design, operation, and deployment of monolithic heat pipe–based reactors. However, this test bed can broadly be applied to multiple microreactor concepts to evaluate a wide range of thermal-hydraulic and structural phenomena such as interface coupling with power conversion units and other collocated systems. MAGNET can evaluate integral thermomechanical effects during electrical heating of an array of heat pipes in a larger test article. Examples of initial testing will include thermal stresses in the monolith and the impact of debonding of a heat pipe from the core block and how that failure could impact surrounding heat pipes, i.e., understanding the potential for cascading failure. This work also discusses some modeling capabilities that can support experiment design, analysis, and interpretation, including the heat pipe code Sockeye and a comparison of thermal-structural simulations performed using ABAQUS and STAR-CCM+.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Integrating Immersive Visualization in Molten-Salt Reactor Waste Management for Experimental Design and Planning

The Molten Salt Reactor (MSR) represents a significant innovation in nuclear technology, offering several operational and safety benefits over traditional solid-fuel reactors. However, MSRs face uncertainties in waste management due to their flexible designs and variable waste compositions. To address these challenges, we propose a visualization platform that illustrates solutions and performance predictions for various waste management strategies, enhancing user experience and improving strategy and communication. Immersive visualizations are widely used in the nuclear industry for training, simulation, and safety enhancement. Our project aims to develop a visualization platform incorporating virtual reality (VR) technologies to illustrate MSR characteristics immediately following reactor shutdown. This immersive simulation will allow users to interact, explore, and understand different waste management strategies. The platform will display MSR reactor characterizations, including nuclide decay, salt solidification, and corrosion, which are crucial for assessing and selecting backend management strategies. Using the Meta Quest 3 VR headset with Unity software, our platform will provide real-scale visualizations, enabling users to experience and evaluate designs and plans as if they were physically present. This user-friendly interface will make complex data accessible and understandable for non-domain experts, aiding in decision-making for MSR waste management. Our proposed visualization workflow can be applied to other nuclear reactors, assisting in the design and planning of waste management strategies.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗