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NASA NTRS2021

Using SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture to Constrain MOD16 Evapotranspiration over the Contiguous USA

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a key hydrologic variable linking the Earth’s water, carbon and energy cycles. At large spatial scales, remote sensing-based (RS) models are often used to quantify ET. Despite the large number of RS ET models available, few include soil moisture as a key environmental input, which can degrade model accuracy and utility. Here, we use model assimilation enhanced soil moisture estimates from the NASA SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive) mission as a water supply control in the MOD16 ET algorithm framework. SMAP-derived daily surface (0-5cm depth) and root zone (0-1m depth) soil moisture are used with MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) vegetation observations, and 4km gridded regional surface meteorology (Gridmet) as primary inputs for estimating daily ET and underlying model soil and stomatal conductance terms. We calibrated the model environmental response parameters using tower eddy covariance ET observations representing major North American biomes. The model ET results were validated using a holdout set of tower observations spanning a large regional climate gradient. The updated ET estimates outperform the baseline MOD16 product across all tower validation sites (RMSE = 0.758 vs 1.108 mm day-1; R2 = 0.68 vs0.45, respectively). Smaller relative improvements were obtained using a recalibrated model with 4km Gridmet meteorology, but no soil moisture control (RMSE = 0.813 mm day-1; R2 = 0.66), indicating that these changes are essential for the improved model performance. The soil moisture-constrained model improvements and relative benefits from the SMAP observations are greater in arid climates, consistent with stronger soil moisture control on ET in water-limited regions. The use of SMAP soil moisture as an additional model constraint improves MOD16 regional performance and provides a new framework for investigating both soil and atmosphere controls on ET.

SMAP↗
NASA NTRS1993

The influence of land surface properties on Sahel climate. Part 1: Desertification

This is a general circulation model sensitivity study of the physical mechanisms of the effects of desertification on the Sahel drought. The model vegetation types were changed in the prescribed desertification area, which led to changes in the surface characteristics. The model was integrated for three months (June, July, August) with climatological surface conditions (control) and desertification conditions (anomaly) to examine the summer season response to the changed surface conditions. The control and anomaly experiments consisted of five pairs of integrations with different initial conditions and/or sea surface temperature boundary conditions. In the desertification experiment, the moisture flux convergence and rainfall were reduced in the test area and increased to the immediate south of this area. The simulated anomaly dipole pattern was similar to the observed African drought patterns in which the axis of the maximum rainfall shifts to the south. The circulation changes in the desertification experiment were consistent with those observed during sub-Saharan dry years. The tropical easterly jet was weaker and the African easterly jet was stronger than normal. Further, in agreement with the observations, the easterly wave disturbances were reduced in intensity but not in number. Descending motion dominated the desertification area. The surface energy budget and hydrological cycle were also changed substantially in the anomaly experiment.

Xue, Yongkang↗
NASA NTRS1981

An evaluation of the spatial resolution of soil moisture information

Rainfall-amount patterns in the central regions of the U.S. were assessed. The spatial scales of surface features and their corresponding microwave responses in the mid western U.S. were investigated. The usefulness for U.S. government agencies of soil moisture information at scales of 10 km and 1 km. was ascertained. From an investigation of 494 storms, it was found that the rainfall resulting from the passage of most types of storms produces patterns which can be resolved on a 10 km scale. The land features causing the greatest problem in the sensing of soil moisture over large agricultural areas with a radiometer are bodies of water. Over the mid-western portions of the U.S., water occupies less than 2% of the total area, the consequently, the water bodies will not have a significant impact on the mapping of soil moisture. Over most of the areas, measurements at a 10-km resolution would adequately define the distribution of soil moisture. Crop yield models and hydrological models would give improved results if soil moisture information at scales of 10 km was available.

Hardy, K. R.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Towards a holistic sulfate-water-O2 triple oxygen isotope systematics

Triple oxygen isotope (∆^(17)O with δ^(18)O) signals of H2O and O2 found in sulfate of oxidative weathering origin offer promising constraints on modern and ancient weathering, hydrology, atmospheric gas concentrations, and bioproductivity. However, interpretations of the sulfate-water-O2 system rely on assuming fixed oxygen-isotope fractionations between sulfate and water, which, contrastingly, are shown to vary widely in sign and amplitude. Instead, here we anchor sulfate-water-O2 triple oxygen isotope systematics on the homogeneous composition of atmospheric O2 with empirical constraints and modeling. Our resulting framework does not require a priori assumptions of the O2- versus H2O-oxygen ratio in sulfate and accounts for the signals of mass dependent and mass independent fractionation in the ∆^(17)O and δ^(18)O of sulfate's O2-oxygen source. Within this framework, new ∆^(17)O measurements of sulfate constrain ~2.3Ga Paleoproterozoic gross primary productivity to between 6 and 160 times present-day levels, with important implications for the biological carbon cycle response to high CO2concentrations prevalent on the early Earth.

sulfate, oxygen isotopes, atmospheric oxygen, sulf↗
NASA NTRS2003

Possible Stick-Slip Mechanism for Whillans Ice Stream

Tidally-induced stick-slip motion in the mouth of Whillans Ice Stream provides a unique natural experiment in ice-stream response behavior and fiom which we might learn a great deal about subglacial till properties and sub-ice-stream conditions. At the IGS Symposium on Fast Glacier Flow (Yakutat, 2002), we reported our observations of stick- slip motion and demonstrated its synchronicity with tidal forcing. Recently, we have completed additional processing of our GPS data in differential mode. It reveals more details of the stick-slip events and illustrates that within 30 seconds, the temporal interval of our data, the ice stream accelerates to a speed corresponding to a completely lubricated bed. While details of individual events vary, there seems to be strong evidence of an elastic rebound on the time scale of one hour following most events. This suggests the event involves the release of stored elastic strain energy in the ice. The similar displacements of events suggest further that till or subglacial hydrologic properties limit the amount of elastic strain released in any single event. We follow a line of reasoning that dilatant strengthening limits the slip displacement and present model of the stick-slip process. To match the observed delay between the peak ocean tide and stick-slip events, our model includes a propagating pressure wave in the subglacial hydrologic system between the grounding line, where the rising tide first increases the subglacial water pressure and regions upstream where stored elastic strain increases the basal shear stress. This high-tide event is released when the increased water pressure reaches the region of increased shear stress. Dilatant strengthening stops the event by increasing pore volume and lowering the water pressure. Following this event, falling tide increases the normal forces, compresses the till and increases pore pressure again, leading to the second falling-tide event we observe every tidal cycle.

Bindschadler, Robert↗
NASA NTRS2003

Possible Stick-Slip Mechanism for Whillans Ice Stream

Tidally-induced stick-slip motion in the mouth of Whillans Ice Stream provides a unique natural experiment in ice-stream response behavior and from which we might learn a great deal about subglacial till properties and sub-ice-stream conditions. At the IGS Symposium on Fast Glacier Flow (Yakutat, 2002), we reported our observations of stick- slip motion and demonstrated its synchronicity with tidal forcing. Recently, we have completed additional processing of our GPS data in differential mode. It reveals more details of the stick-slip events and illustrates that within 30 seconds, the temporal interval of our data, the ice stream accelerates to a speed corresponding to a completely lubricated bed. While details of individual events vary, there seems to be strong evidence of an elastic rebound on the time scale of one hour following most events. This suggests the event involves the release of stored elastic strain energy in the ice. The similar displacements of events suggest further that till or subglacial hydrologic properties limit the amount of elastic strain released in any single event. We follow a line of reasoning that dilatant strengthening limits the slip displacement and present model of the stick-slip process. To match the observed delay between the peak ocean tide and stick-slip events, our model includes a propagating pressure wave in the subglacial hydrologic system between the grounding line, where the rising tide first increases the subglacial water pressure and regions upstream where stored elastic strain increases the basal shear stress. This high-tide event is released when the increased water pressure reaches the region of increased shear stress. Dilatant strengthening stops the event by increasing pore volume and lowering the water pressure. Following this event, falling tide increases the normal forces, compresses the till and increases pore pressure again, leading to the second falling-tide event we observe every tidal cycle.

Bindschadler, Robert↗
NASA NTRS2004

Space Geodesy Monitoring Mass Transport in Global Geophysical Fluids

Mass transports occurring in the atmosphere-hydrosphere-cryosphere-solid Earth-core system (the 'global geophysical fluids') are important geophysical phenomena. They occur on all temporal and spatial scales. Examples include air mass and ocean circulations, oceanic and solid tides, hydrological water and idsnow redistribution, mantle processes such as post-glacial rebound, earthquakes and tectonic motions, and core geodynamo activities. The temporal history and spatial pattern of such mass transport are often not amenable to direct observations. Space geodesy techniques, however, have proven to be an effective tool in monitorihg certain direct consequences of the mass transport, including Earth's rotation variations, gravitational field variations, and the geocenter motion. Considerable advances have been made in recent years in observing and understanding of these geodynamic effects. This paper will use several prominent examples to illustrate the triumphs in research over the past years under a 'Moore's law' in space geodesy. New space missions and projects promise to further advance our knowledge about the global mass transports. The latter contributes to our understanding of the geophysical processes that produce and regulate the mass transports, as well as of the solid Earth's response to such changes in terms of Earth's mechanical properties.

Chao, Benjamin F.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Earth Science Data Archive and Access at the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC)

The Goddard Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC), as an integral part of the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS), is the official source of data for several important earth remote sensing missions. These include the Sea-viewing Wide-Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) launched in August 1997, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) launched in November 1997, and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) scheduled for launch in mid 1999 as part of the EOS AM-1 instrumentation package. The data generated from these missions supports a host of users in the hydrological, land biosphere and oceanographic research and applications communities. The volume and nature of the data present unique challenges to an Earth science data archive and distribution system such as the DAAC. The DAAC system receives, archives and distributes a large number of standard data products on a daily basis, including data files that have been reprocessed with updated calibration data or improved analytical algorithms. A World Wide Web interface is provided allowing interactive data selection and automatic data subscriptions as distribution options. The DAAC also creates customized and value-added data products, which allow additional user flexibility and reduced data volume. Another significant part of our overall mission is to provide ancillary data support services and archive support for worldwide field campaigns designed to validate the results from the various satellite-derived measurements. In addition to direct data services, accompanying documentation, WWW links to related resources, support for EOSDIS data formats, and informed response to inquiries are routinely provided to users. The current GDAAC WWW search and order system is being restructured to provide users with a simplified, hierarchical access to data. Data Browsers have been developed for several data sets to aid users in ordering data. These Browsers allow users to specify spatial, temporal, and other parameter criteria in searching for and previewing data.

Leptoukh, Gregory↗
NASA NTRS1999

Mars 2001 Lander Mission: Measurement Synergy Through Coordinated Operations Planning And Implementation

The 2001 Mars Surveyor Program Mission includes an orbiter with a gamma ray spectrometer and a multispectral thermal imager, and a lander with an extensive set of instrumentation, a robotic arm, and the Marie Curie Rover. The Mars 2001 Science Operations Working Group (SOWG) is a subgroup of the Project Science Group that has been formed to provide coordinated planning and implementation of scientific observations, particularly for the landed portion of the mission. The SOWG will be responsible for delivery of a science plan and, during operations, generation and delivery of conflict-free sequences. This group will also develop an archive plan that is compliant with Planetary Data System (PDS) standards, and will oversee generation, validation, and delivery of integrated archives to the PDS. In this report we cover one element of the SOWG planning activities, the development of a plan that maximizes the scientific return from lander-based observations by treating the instrument packages as an integrated payload. Scientific objectives for the lander mission have been defined. They include observations focused on determining the bedrock geology of the site through analyses of rocks and also local materials found in the soils, and the surficial geology of the site, including windblown deposits and the nature and history of formation of indurated sediments such as duricrust. Of particular interest is the identification and quantification of processes related to early warm, wet conditions and the presence of hydrologic or hydrothermal cycles. Determining the nature and origin of duricrust and associated salts is -very important in this regard. Specifically, did these deposits form in the vadose zone as pore water evaporated from soils or did they form by other processes, such as deposition of volcanic aerosols? Basic information needed to address these questions includes the morphology, topography, and geologic context of landforms and materials exposed at the site, together with quantitative information on material mineralogy, chemistry, and physical properties (rock textures; soil grain size and shape distributions; degree and nature of soil induration; soil magnetic properties). The calibration targets provide radiometric and mineralogical control surfaces. The magnets allow observations of magnetic phases. Patch plates are imaged to determine adhesive and abrasive properties of soils. Coordinated mission planning is crucial for optimizing the measurement synergy among the packages included on the lander. This planning has already begun through generation of multi-sol detailed operations activities. One focus has been to develop a scenario to use the arm to dig a soil trench to a depth of tens of centimeters. The activity will be monitored through use of Pancam and RAC to ensure nominal operations and to acquire data to determine subsurface physical properties (e.g., angle of repose of trench walls). Pancam and Mini-TES observations would also provide constraints on mineralogy and texture for the walls and bottom of the trench during excavation. If desired, soils excavated at depth could be deposited on the surface and Mossbauer and APXS measurements could be acquired for these materials. Soil samples from various depths would be delivered to MECA for characterization of aqueous geochemistry and physical properties of soil grains, particularly size, shape, and hardness. These physical properties would be determined by optical and atomic force microscopy. When completed, detailed information of soil properties as a function of depth would be obtained. These various data sets would constrain our understanding of whether or not there are systematic variations in soil characteristics as a function of depth. These variations might be related, for example, to evaporative moisture losses and formation of salt deposits, thereby indicating water transport processes occurred fairly recently. Many other value-added measurement scenarios are being developed. For example, characterizing the nature and dynamics of dust deposition will be done using MIP/DART to provide deposition rates, Pancam and RAC imaging of lander and rover surfaces to extrapolate these measurements to other areas, and a variety of measurements to determine if the bulk loose soil has the same characteristics as dust that accumulates during the mission. Bedrock geology of the site is primarily an APEX-focus setting, mineralogy, and texture, and APXS data to be we interest will be to determine the extent to which rock hydrothermal processes, given that APEX is the precursor 4 and 2005 rover missions. Additional information is contained in the original.

Arvidson, R.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Integrating State Data Assimilation and Innovative Model Parameterization Reduces Simulated Carbon Uptake in the Arctic and Boreal Region

Model representation of carbon uptake and storage is essential for accurate projection of the response of the arctic‐boreal zone to a rapidly changing climate. Land model estimates of LAI and aboveground biomass that can have a marked influence on model projections of carbon uptake and storage vary substantially in the arctic and boreal zone, making it challenging to correctly evaluate model estimates of Gross Primary Productivity (GPP). To understand and correct bias of LAI and aboveground biomass in the Community Land Model (CLM), we assimilated the 8‐day Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LAI observation and a machine learning product of annual aboveground biomass into CLM using an Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter (EAKF) in an experimental region including Alaska and Western Canada. Assimilating LAI and aboveground biomass reduced these model estimates by 58% and 72%, respectively. The change of aboveground biomass was consistent with independent estimates of canopy top height at both regional and site levels. The International Land Model Benchmarking system assessment showed that data assimilation significantly improved CLM's performance in simulating the carbon and hydrological cycles, as well as in representing the functional relationships between LAI and other variables. To further reduce the remaining bias in GPP after LAI bias correction, we re‐parameterized CLM to account for low temperature suppression of photosynthesis. The LAI bias corrected model that included the new parameterization showed the best agreement with model benchmarks. Combining data assimilation with model parameterization provides a useful framework to assess photosynthetic processes in LSMs.

land data assimilation↗
NASA NTRS2020

Twenty‐First Century Drought Projections in the CMIP6 Forcing Scenarios

There is strong evidence climate change will increase drought risk and severity, but these conclusions depend on the regions, seasons, and drought metrics being considered. We analyze changes in drought across the hydrologic cycle (precipitation, soil moisture, and runoff) in projections from Phase Six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The multi‐model ensemble shows robust drying in the mean state across many regions and metrics by the end of the 21st century, even following the more aggressive mitigation pathways (SSP1‐2.6 and SSP2‐4.5). Regional hotspots with strong drying include western North America, Central America, Europe and the Mediterranean, the Amazon, southern Africa, China, Southeast Asia, and Australia. Compared to SSP3‐7.0 and SSP5‐8.5, however, the severity of drying in the lower warming scenarios is substantially reduced and further precipitation declines in many regions are avoided. Along with drying in the mean state, the risk of the historically most extreme drought events also increases with warming, by 200–300% in some regions. Soil moisture and runoff drying in CMIP6 is more robust, spatially extensive, and severe than precipitation, indicating an important role for other temperature‐sensitive drought processes, including evapotranspiration and snow. Given the similarity in drought responses between CMIP5 and CMIP6, we speculate both generations of models are subject to similar uncertainties, including vegetation processes, model representations of precipitation, and the degree to which model responses to warming are consistent with observations. These topics should be further explored to evaluate whether CMIP6 models offer reasons to have increased confidence in drought projections.

drought↗
NASA NTRS2000

Global Geophysical Fluids Center of IERS

The Global Geophysical Fluids Center (GGFC) and its seven Special Bureaus (SB, for Atmosphere, Oceans, Tides, Hydrology, Mantle, Core and Gravity/Geocenter) were establishes by the International Earth Rotation Service in 1998, to support global geodynamic research. Mass transports in the geophysical fluids of the Earth system will cause observable geodynamic effects on a broad time scale.These include (1) variations in the solid Earth's rotation (in length-of-day and polar motion/nutation) via the conservation of angular momentum and effected by torques at the fluid-solid Earth interface; (2) changes in the global gravitational field according to Newton's gravitational law; and (3) motion in the center of mass of the solid Earth relative to that of the whole Earth ("geocenter") via the conservation of linear momentum. These minute signals have become observable by space geodetic techniques, primarily VLBI, SLR, GPS, and DORIS, and new exciting data will be available by space gravity, altimetry, SAR, and magnetic missions. In this sense the precise space geodetic techniques have become effective means of remote sensing of global mass transports. The GGFC and its SBs have the responsibility of supporting, facilitating, and providing services to the worldwide research community in the related research areas. We compute, analyze, compare, archive, and disseminate the time series of the angular momenta and the related torques, gravitational coefficients, and geocenter shift for all geophysical fluids, based on global observational data, and/or products from state-of-the-art models some of which assimilate such data. The computed quantities, algorithm and data formats are standardized. This paper reviews our activities, reports the status, and looks forward into the future.

Chao, Benjamin F.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Multi Sensor Approach to Address Sustainable Development

The main objectives of Earth Science research are many folds: to understand how does this planet operates, can we model her operation and eventually develop the capability to predict such changes. However, the underlying goals of this work are to eventually serve the humanity in providing societal benefits. This requires continuous, and detailed observations from many sources in situ, airborne and space. By and large, the space observations are the way to comprehend the global phenomena across continental boundaries and provide credible boundary conditions for the mesoscale studies. This requires a multiple sensors, look angles and measurements over the same spot in accurately solving many problems that may be related to air quality, multi hazard disasters, public health, hydrology and more. Therefore, there are many ways to address these issues and develop joint implementation, data sharing and operating strategies for the benefit of the world community. This is because for large geographical areas or regions and a diverse population, some sound observations, scientific facts and analytical models must support the decision making. This is crucial for the sustainability of vital resources of the world and at the same time to protect the inhabitants, endangered species and the ecology. Needless to say, there is no single sensor, which can answer all such questions effectively. Due to multi sensor approach, it puts a tremendous burden on any single implementing entity in terms of information, knowledge, budget, technology readiness and computational power. And, more importantly, the health of planet Earth and its ability to sustain life is not governed by a single country, but in reality, is everyone's business on this planet. Therefore, with this notion, it is becoming an impractical problem by any single organization/country to bear this colossal responsibility. So far, each developed country within their means has proceeded along satisfactorily in implementing their Earth observing needs but it has left a big void in the developing world who have very limited resources to invest in the space measurements. This paper gives some serious thoughts in what options are there in undertaking this tremendous challenge. The problem is multi-dimensional in terms of budget, technology availability, environmental legislations, public awareness, and communication limitations. Some of these issues are introduced, discussed and possible implementation strategies are provided in this paper to move out of this predicament. A strong emphasis is placed on international cooperation and collaboration to see a collective benefit for this effort

Habib, Shahid↗
NASA NTRS2012

Global Air Quality and Climate

Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors determine regional air quality and can alter climate. Climate change can perturb the long-range transport, chemical processing, and local meteorology that influence air pollution. We review the implications of projected changes in methane (CH4), ozone precursors (O3), and aerosols for climate (expressed in terms of the radiative forcing metric or changes in global surface temperature) and hemispheric-to-continental scale air quality. Reducing the O3 precursor CH4 would slow near-term warming by decreasing both CH4 and tropospheric O3. Uncertainty remains as to the net climate forcing from anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, which increase tropospheric O3 (warming) but also increase aerosols and decrease CH4 (both cooling). Anthropogenic emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and non-CH4 volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) warm by increasing both O3 and CH4. Radiative impacts from secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are poorly understood. Black carbon emission controls, by reducing the absorption of sunlight in the atmosphere and on snow and ice, have the potential to slow near-term warming, but uncertainties in coincident emissions of reflective (cooling) aerosols and poorly constrained cloud indirect effects confound robust estimates of net climate impacts. Reducing sulfate and nitrate aerosols would improve air quality and lessen interference with the hydrologic cycle, but lead to warming. A holistic and balanced view is thus needed to assess how air pollution controls influence climate; a first step towards this goal involves estimating net climate impacts from individual emission sectors. Modeling and observational analyses suggest a warming climate degrades air quality (increasing surface O3 and particulate matter) in many populated regions, including during pollution episodes. Prior Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (SRES) allowed unconstrained growth, whereas the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios assume uniformly an aggressive reduction, of air pollutant emissions. New estimates from the current generation of chemistry-climate models with RCP emissions thus project improved air quality over the next century relative to those using the IPCC SRES scenarios. These two sets of projections likely bracket possible futures. We find that uncertainty in emission-driven changes in air quality is generally greater than uncertainty in climate-driven changes. Confidence in air quality projections is limited by the reliability of anthropogenic emission trajectories and the uncertainties in regional climate responses, feedbacks with the terrestrial biosphere, and oxidation pathways affecting O3 and SOA.

ozone↗
NASA NTRS2021

Modeling Snow Ablation over the Western United States Mountains: Patterns and Controlling Factors

When compared with differences in snow accumulation predicted by widely used hydrological models, there is a much greater divergence among otherwise “good” models in their simulation of the snow ablation process. Here, we explore differences in the performance of the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC), Noah land surface model with multiparameterization options (Noah-MP), the Catchment model, and the third-generation Simplified Simple Biosphere model (SiB3) in their ability to reproduce observed snow water equivalent (SWE) during the ablation season at 10 Snowpack Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations over 1992–2012. During the ablation period, net radiation generally has stronger correlations with observed melt rates than does air temperature. Average ablation rates tend to be higher (in both model predictions and observations) at stations with a large accumulation of SWE. The differences in the dates of last snow between models and observations range from several days to approximately a month (on average 5.1 days earlier than in observations). If the surface cover in the models is changed from observed vegetation to bare soil in all of the models, only the melt rate of the VIC model increases. The differences in responses of models to canopy removal are directly related to snowpack energy inputs, which are further affected by different algorithms for surface albedo and energy allocation across the models. We also find that the melt rates become higher in VIC and lower in Noah-MP if the shrub/grass present at the observation sites is switched to trees.

Snow↗
NASA NTRS1999

Mass Transport in Global Geophysical Fluids

Mass transports occurring in the atmosphere-hydrosphere-solid Earth-core system (the "global geophysical fluids") are important geophysical phenomena. They occur on all temporal and spatial scales. Examples include air mass and ocean circulations, tides, hydrological water redistribution, mantle processes such as post-glacial rebound, earthquakes and tectonic motions, and core geodynamo activities. With only a few exceptions on the Earth surface, the temporal history and spatial pattern of such mass transport are often not amenable to direct observations. Space geodesy techniques, however, have the capability of monitoring certain direct consequences of the mass transport, including Earth's rotation variations, gravitational field variations, and the geocenter motion. These techniques include the very-long-baseline interferometry, satellite laser ranging and Doppler tracking, and the Global Positioning System, all entail global observational networks. While considerable advances have been made in observing and understanding of the dynamics of Earth's rotation, only the lowest-degree gravitational variations have been observed and limited knowledge of geocenter motion obtained. New space missions, projects and initiatives promise to further improve the measurements and hence our knowledge about the global mass transports. The latter contributes to our understanding and modeling capability of the geophysical processes that produce and regulate the mass transports, as well as the solid Earth's response to such changes in constraining the modeling of Earth's mechanical properties.

Chao, B. F.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Human influence on joint changes in temperature, rainfall and continental aridity

Despite the pervasive impact of drought on human and natural systems, the large-scale mechanisms conducive to regional drying remain poorly understood. Here we use a multivariate approach to identify two distinct externally forced fingerprints from multiple ensembles of Earth system model simulations. The leading fingerprint, F(M1)(x), is characterized by global warming, intensified wet–dry patterns and progressive large-scale continental aridification, largely driven by multidecadal increases in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The second fingerprint, F(M2)(x), captures a pronounced interhemispheric temperature contrast, associated meridional shifts in the intertropical convergence zone and correlated anomalies in precipitation and aridity over California, the Sahel and India. F(M2)(x) exhibits nonlinear temporal behaviour: the intertropical convergence zone moves southwards before 1975 in response to increases in hemispherically asymmetric sulfate aerosol emissions, and it shifts northwards after 1975 due to reduced sulfur dioxide emissions and the GHG-induced warming of Northern Hemisphere landmasses. Both fingerprints are statistically identifiable in observations of joint changes in temperature, rainfall and aridity during 1950–2014. We show that the reliable simulation of these changes requires combined forcing by GHGs, direct and indirect effects of aerosols, and large volcanic eruptions. Our results suggest that GHG-induced aridification may be modulated regionally by future reductions in sulfate aerosol emissions.

Human influence↗
NASA NTRS2002

Soil Moisture and Snow Cover: Active or Passive Elements of Climate?

A key question in the study of the hydrologic cycle is the extent to which surface effects such as soil moisture and snow cover are simply passive elements or whether they can affect the evolution of climate on seasonal and longer time scales. We have constructed ensembles of predictability studies using the NCAR CCM3 in which we compared the relative roles of initial surface and atmospheric conditions over the central and western U.S. in determining the subsequent evolution of soil moisture and of snow cover. We have also made sensitivity studies with exaggerated soil moisture and snow cover anomalies in order to determine the physical processes that may be important. Results from simulations with realistic soil moisture anomalies indicate that internal climate variability may be the strongest factor, with some indication that the initial atmospheric state is also important. The initial state of soil moisture does not appear important, a result that held whether simulations were started in late winter or late spring. Model runs with exaggerated soil moisture reductions (near-desert conditions) showed a much larger effect, with warmer surface temperatures, reduced precipitation, and lower surface pressures; the latter indicating a response of the atmospheric circulation. These results suggest the possibility of a threshold effect in soil moisture, whereby an anomaly must be of a sufficient size before it can have a significant impact on the atmospheric circulation and hence climate. Results from simulations with realistic snow cover anomalies indicate that the time of year can be crucial. When introduced in late winter, these anomalies strongly affected the subsequent evolution of snow cover. When introduced in early winter, however, little or no effect is seen on the subsequent snow cover. Runs with greatly exaggerated initial snow cover indicate that the high reflectively of snow is the most important process by which snow cover cart impact climate, through lower surface temperatures and increased surface pressures. In early winter, the amount of solar radiation is very small and so this albedo effect is inconsequential while in late winter, with the sun higher in the sky and period of daylight longer, the effect is much stronger.

Oglesby, Robert J.↗