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At least 253 records · Page 14

Network-Scale Ubiquitous Volume Estimation Using Tree-Based Ensemble Learning Methods

Currently ubiquitous volume data for roadway networks remains the key missing dimension in traffic operations. Most volume data are average annual daily traffic (AADT) measures derived from the Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS). Although methods to factor the AADT to hourly averages for typical day of week exist, actual volume data is limited to a sparse collection of locations in which volumes are continuously recorded. This paper/poster explores the use of state-of-art machine learning techniques to estimate accurate volume measures that span the highway network providing ubiquitous coverage in space, and point-in-time measures for a specific date and time. Three tree-based ensemble learning models, random forest (RF), gradient boost machine (GBM), and extreme gradient boost (XGBoost), were tested for volume estimation by learning from combined dataset of commercial probe data provided by TomTom, the FHWA's Travel Monitoring Analysis System (TMAS) data, and other infrastructure attributes such as number of lanes, speed limit, and weather. The methods were tested on major corridors and freeways in the metropolitan area of Denver. All three machine learning methods were able to provide hourly volume estimates 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, and 365 days a year with around 18% mean absolute error to true volume and about 5% of error with respect to roadway capacity. The low error measures allow the potential application by transportation agencies.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Scalable Synthesis of Pt/SrTiO 3 Hydrogenolysis Catalysts in Pursuit of Manufacturing-Relevant Waste Plastic Solutions

Here, an improved hydrothermal synthesis for shape-controlled, size-controlled 60 nm SrTiO 3 nanocuboid (STO NC) supports, which facilitates the scalable creation of platinum nanoparticles catalyst supported on STO (Pt/STO) for the chemical conversion of waste polyolefins, is reported herein. This synthetic method: 1) produces STO NC supports with average sizes ranging from 25 – 80 nm with narrow size distributions 2) demonstrates how SrCO 3 formation and variation in solution pH prevent the formation of STO NCs, and 3) establishes that STO nucleation prior to the hydrothermal treatment favors nanocuboid formation. The updated hydrothermal synthesis was scaled-up and conducted in a 4L batch reactor, resulting in STO NCs of comparable size and morphology (m = 22.5 g, d avg = 58.6 ± 16.2 nm) to those synthesized under standard hydrothermal conditions in a lab-scale 125 mL autoclave reactor. Size-controlled STO NCs, ranging in roughly 10 nm increments from the 25 nm to 80 nm, were used to support Pt deposited through strong electrostatic adsorption (SEA), a practical and scalable solution-based method. Using SEA techniques and a STO support with an average size of 39.3 ± 6.3 nm, a Pt/STO catalyst with 3.6 wt% Pt was produced and used for high-density polyethylene hydrogenolysis under previously-reported conditions (170 psi H 2 , 300°C, 96h; final product: M w = 2400, Ð = 1.03). As a well-established model system for studying the behavior of heterogeneous catalysts and their supports in reactions, the Pt/STO system detailed in this work presents a unique opportunity to simultaneously convert waste plastic into commercially-viable products while gaining fundamental insight into the mechanism of polyethylene hydrogenolysis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Pool Fire Analysis Methodology for Assessing Damage to Waste Containers

This document provides guidelines, whereby the physical parameters associated with postulated flammable/combustible liquid pool fires are determined (thermal analysis) in order to estimate the number of waste containers impacted. Pool fire damage to waste containers may occur due to a container being fully engulfed (within the periphery of the pool), partially engulfed, or within the critical heat flux distance. The methodology described here for estimating the size of the pool fire is developed using spill characteristics outlined in Chapter 65 of the SFPE Handbook (Ref. 7) and testing done by Hansen (Ref. 25). For exposures, the critical flux height is determined using the detailed method of Shokri and Beyler (Ref. 8) from the flame height, calculated as described by Heskestad (Ref. 7) and the average black body emissive power, determined using the method of Shokri and Beyler (Ref. 8). Three types of liquid pool fires should be considered; unconfined crash/instantaneous spill fires, unconfined continuously flowing (also called metered leak) spill fires, and confined spill fires. All fuel sources should be considered consistent with the facility Fire Hazard Analysis (FHA). However, the most likely liquid fuel sources present in TRU waste facilities are those present on TRU waste handling vehicles (forklifts, pallet movers, transport trucks, etc.). This method can also be used for assessing damage to items other than waste containers or other methods of analysis may be used with appropriate justification.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Physics-Informed Deep Learning for Reconstruction of Spatial Missing Climate Information in the Antarctic

Understanding the influence of the Antarctic on the global climate is crucial for the prediction of global warming. However, due to very few observation sites, it is difficult to reconstruct the rational spatial pattern by filling in the missing values from the limited site observations. To tackle this challenge, regional spatial gap-filling methods, such as Kriging and inverse distance weighted (IDW), are regularly used in geoscience. Nevertheless, the reconstructing credibility of these methods is undesirable when the spatial structure has massive missing pieces. Inspired by image inpainting, we propose a novel deep learning method that demonstrates a good effect by embedding the physics-aware initialization of deep learning methods for rapid learning and capturing the spatial dependence for the high-fidelity imputation of missing areas. We create the benchmark dataset that artificially masks the Antarctic region with ratios of 30%, 50% and 70%. The reconstructing monthly mean surface temperature using the deep learning image inpainting method RFR (Recurrent Feature Reasoning) exhibits an average of 63% and 71% improvement of accuracy over Kriging and IDW under different missing rates. With regard to wind speed, there are still 36% and 50% improvements. In particular, the achieved improvement is even better for the larger missing ratio, such as under the 70% missing rate, where the accuracy of RFR is 68% and 74% higher than Kriging and IDW for temperature and also 38% and 46% higher for wind speed. In addition, the PI-RFR (Physics-Informed Recurrent Feature Reasoning) method we proposed is initialized using the spatial pattern data simulated by the numerical climate model instead of the unified average. Compared with RFR, PI-RFR has an average accuracy improvement of 10% for temperature and 9% for wind speed. When applied to reconstruct the spatial pattern based on the Antarctic site observations, where the missing rate is over 90%, the proposed method exhibits more spatial characteristics than Kriging and IDW.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Detuned synchronized waveform averaging for reducing distortions due to sample interleaving

This invention introduces a method for optimally detuning the ratio of analog-to-digital (ADC) sample rate and trigger rate during waveform averaging to minimize the deleterious effects from sample interleaving. A prescription is described for determining the optimal detuning factor for the ADC or trigger rate in any scenario, depending on the number of ADC cores used and the limited tuning resolution of the clock rates for a specific implementation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

CAN-D: A Modular Four-Step Pipeline for Comprehensively Decoding Controller Area Network Data

Controller area networks (CANs) are a broadcast protocol for real-time communication of critical vehicle subsystems. Original equipment manufacturers of passenger vehicles hold secret their mappings of CAN data to vehicle signals, and these definitions vary according to make, model, and year. Without these mappings, the wealth of real-time vehicle information hidden in the CAN packets is uninterpretable, severely impeding vehicle-related research, including CAN cybersecurity and privacy studies, aftermarket tuning, efficiency and performance monitoring, and fault diagnosis to name a few. Guided by the four-part CAN signal definition, we present CAN-D (CAN-Decoder), a modular, four-step pipeline for identifying each signal's boundaries (start bit and length), endianness (byte ordering), signedness (bit-to-integer encoding), and by leveraging diagnostic standards, augmenting a subset of the extracted signals with meaningful, physical interpretation. En route to CAN-D, we provide a comprehensive review of the CAN signal reverse engineering research. All previous methods ignore endianness and signedness, rendering them incapable of decoding many standard CAN signal definitions. Incorporating endianness grows the search space from 128 to 4.72E21 signal tokenizations and introduces a web of changing dependencies. In response, we formulate, formally analyze, and provide an efficient solution to an optimization problem, allowing identification of the optimal set of signal boundaries and byte orderings. In addition, we provide two novel, state-of-the-art signal boundary classifiers—both of which are superior to previous approaches in precision and recall in three different test scenarios—and the first signedness classification algorithm, which exhibits a $>$ 97% F-score. Altogether, CAN-D is the only solution with the potential to extract any CAN signal that is also the state of the art. In evaluation on 10 vehicles of different makes, CAN-D's average $\ell ^1$ error is five times better (81% less) than all previous methods and exhibits lower average error, even when considering only signals that meet prior methods’ assumptions. Finally, CAN-D is implemented in lightweight hardware, allowing for an on-board diagnostic (OBD-II) plugin for real-time in-vehicle CAN decoding.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Quantifying spatiotemporal variability in occupant exposure to an indoor airborne contaminant with an uncertain source location

Well-mixed zone models are often employed to compute indoor air quality and occupant exposures. While effective, a potential downside to assuming instantaneous, perfect mixing is underpredicting exposures to high intermittent concentrations within a room. When such cases are of concern, more spatially resolved models, like computational-fluid dynamics methods, are used for some or all of the zones. But, these models have higher computational costs and require more input information. A preferred compromise would be to continue with a multi-zone modeling approach for all rooms, but with a better assessment of the spatial variability within a room. Here to do so, we present a quantitative method for estimating a room's spatiotemporal variability, based on influential room parameters. Our proposed method disaggregates variability into the variability in a room's average concentration, and the spatial variability within the room relative to that average. This enables a detailed assessment of how variability in particular room parameters impacts the uncertain occupant exposures. To demonstrate the utility of this method, we simulate contaminant dispersion for a variety of possible source locations. We compute breathing-zone exposure during the releasing (source is active) and decaying (source is removed) periods. Using CFD methods, we found after a 30 minutes release the average standard deviation in the spatial distribution of exposure was approximately 28% of the source average exposure, whereas variability in the different average exposures was lower, only 10% of the total average. We also find that although uncertainty in the source location leads to variability in the average magnitude of transient exposure, it does not have a particularly large influence on the spatial distribution during the decaying period, or on the average contaminant removal rate. By systematically characterizing a room's average concentration, its variability, and the spatial variability within the room important insights can be gained as to how much uncertainty is introduced into occupant exposure predictions by assuming a uniform in-room contaminant concentration. We discuss how the results of these characterizations can improve our understanding of the uncertainty in occupant exposures relative to well-mixed models.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Stochastic Price Generation for Evaluating Wholesale Electricity Market Bidding Strategies

This work presents a novel method for generating electricity price scenarios from statistical properties of past electricity prices using a hybrid statistical and reduced-form stochastic model. Previous work in applying stochastic differential equations (SDE) to model electricity prices has focused on daily average prices. To extend stochastic price generation methods to hourly or sub-hourly pricing, we address several weaknesses in the state-of-the-art: (1) we replace the mean-reversion component of the SDE with an ARIMA process that is better able to characterize the daily and weekly trends; (2) we extend the price-spike, or jump process to account for conditional probabilities of price spikes occurring in consecutive time steps by replacing the traditional Poisson process for modeling jumps with a generalized point process model inspired by brain neuron models; and (3) we replace the traditional method of estimating spike intensity with empirical variance with a Markov process based on observed price spike intensity transitions. The method is demonstrated with electricity prices from the US ERCOT market and a use-case example is provided for bidding an energy storage unit into the day-ahead and real-time energy markets of ERCOT using stochastic optimization methods. Results show that the the synthetic price model out performs a (naive) persistence forecast model by resulting in 24% to 47% more in profits over 168 simulated days.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

High-Nickel Cathodes with Mechanical and Interfacial Robustness via Tailored Concentration Gradients for Stable Li-Ion Batteries

Here, we have developed a versatile mathematical framework integrated with an automated reactor system to design and reify highly customizable full concentration gradient (FCG) in high-nickel cathodes for advanced Li-ion batteries. This method provides precise and independent control of the average composition, slope, and curvature of FCGs, enabling the optimization of structural and mechanical properties of the cathode materials. We have showcased this method with Ni 0.8 Co 0.1 Mn 0.1 (OH) 2 precursors of controlled FCGs, which unlocked an optimized cathode with excellent cycling stability without crack formation after repeated cycles. This work opens up new possibilities for the design and manufacturing of advanced cathode materials, enabling safer, high-performance batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Electronic Structure Theory Calculations Using Modern Architectures: KNL vs Haswell

The time to solution and parallel efficiency of several commonly used electronic structure methods (Hartree–Fock, density functional theory, second order perturbation theory, resolution of the identity second order perturbation theory, coupled cluster) are evaluated on both the Intel Xeon Haswell and the Intel Xeon Phi Knights Landing (KNL) architectures. The Haswell completes the benchmark calculations with a faster time to solution than the KNL for all molecules and methods tested. While the Haswell exhibits an average speedup of at least 3.5 relative to the KNL for all nonthreaded computations, the KNL has a better parallel efficiency than the Haswell with increasing core counts. The architectures are further tested using a more computationally costly coupled cluster method on a transition state reaction. The Haswell appears to be the best choice to minimize the time to solution, though for very large systems and high levels of theory that require memory intensive processes the superior memory hierarchy and larger on node memory of the KNL can make it a better choice. These results are used to showcase aspects of novel architectures that will increase efficiency for quantum chemistry applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The Critical Influence of Spin–Dry Technique on the Surface Passivation Quality of Crystalline Silicon Solar Cell Structures

This study examines the effects of spin-dry (SD) and N 2 blow-dry (ND) techniques on the quality and surface passivation performance of silicon oxide grown in ozone-dissolved deionized water. The SD method achieves greater oxide thickness uniformity, averaging 1.39 nm ± 4.17% across 49 points, compared to 1.68 nm ± 21.67% for the ND wafers. However, persistently poor passivation of ozonated oxide-grown wafers following the SD process is exhibited, with carrier lifetime, τ eff < 0.3 ms and saturation current density, J 0 (per side) ranging from 26 to 45 fA cm 2 . These findings are analyzed in the context of the fundamental phenomena involved in the drying processes of both techniques. Following this, an optimized spin-drying process is developed, resulting in improved τ eff and J 0 values of 1.4 ms and 5.6 fA cm –2 , respectively. Scanning electron microscopy further confirms that the oxide films dried with the enhanced SD technique are free of pinholes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Probing Interactions between Adsorbed Polymers and γ-Al 2 O 3 Using Solid-State NMR

The interactions between polymers and metal oxide surfaces affect the physical properties of polymer composites and the selectivity of catalysts used for plastic conversion. Gauging the strengths of these interactions and how they depend on adsorption conformations and polymer structure is nevertheless quite challenging. Herein, we evaluate whether a recently introduced dynamic nuclear polarization-based surface-to-atom distance measurement method can be used to gauge the specific interactions between five vinyl polymers and an oxide support (alumina). The adsorption conformations of polymer monolayers were studied using site-specific 13 C{ 27 Al} rotational-echo saturation-pulse double-resonance (RESPDOR) experiments. The method is effective in revealing the average distance between the adsorbed polymer and the surface, as well as the fraction of the monomers that are adsorbed. Polymers that possess larger side chains are more weakly adsorbed, as evidenced by their formation of more numerous loop and tail structures. In conclusion, the measured RESPDOR dephasing data further reveals that polymer adsorption conformations are largely disordered and involve few hydrogen bonding interactions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The Dynamical Role of Optical Phonons and Sublattice Screening in a Solid-State Ion Conductor

Solid-state electrolytes (SSEs) require ionic conductivities that are competitive with liquid electrolytes to realize applications in all-solid-state batteries. Although candidate SSEs have been discovered, the underlying mechanisms enabling superionic conduction (>1 mS cm –1 ) remain elusive. In particular, the role of ultrafast lattice dynamics in mediating ion migration, which involves couplings between ions, phonons, and electrons, is rarely explored experimentally at their corresponding time scales. To investigate the complex contributions of coupled lattice dynamics on ion migration, we modulate the charge density occupations within the crystal framework and then measure the time-resolved change in impedance on picosecond time scales for a candidate SSE, Li 0.5 La 0.5 TiO 3 (LLTO). Upon perturbation, we observe enhanced ion migration at ultrafast time scales. The respective transients match the time scales of optical and acoustic phonon vibrations, suggesting their involvement in ion migration. We further computationally evaluate the effect of a charge transfer from the O 2p to the Ti 3d band on the electronic and physical structure of LLTO. We hypothesize that the charge-transfer excitation distorts the TiO 6 polyhedra by altering the local charge density occupancy of the hopping site at the migration pathway saddle point, thereby causing a reduction in the migration barrier for the Li + hop. We rule out the contribution of photogenerated electron carriers and laser heating. Overall, our investigation introduces a new spectroscopic tool to probe fundamental ion hopping mechanisms transiently at ultrafast time scales, which has previously only been achieved in a time-averaged manner or solely via computational methods.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Spatio–Temporal Coarse–Graining Decomposition of the Global Ocean Geostrophic Kinetic Energy

We expand on a recent determination of the first global energy spectrum of the ocean’s surface geostrophic circulation using a coarse-graining (CG) method. We compare spectra from CG to those from spherical harmonics by treating land in a manner consistent with the boundary conditions. While the two methods yield qualitatively consistent domain-averaged results, spherical harmonics spectra are too noisy at gyre-scales (> 1000 km). More importantly, spherical harmonics are inherently global and cannot provide local information connecting scales with currents geographically. CG shows that the extra-tropics mesoscales (100–500 km) have a root-mean-square (rms) velocity of ~15 cm/s, which increases to ~30–40 cm/s locally in the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio and to ~16–28 cm/s in the ACC. There is notable hemispheric asymmetry in mesoscale energy-per-area, which is higher in the north due to continental boundaries. We estimate that ≈25–50% of total geostrophic energy is at scales smaller than 100 km, and is un(der)-resolved by pre-SWOT satellite products. Spectra of the time-mean circulation show that most of its energy (up to 70%) resides in stationary eddies with characteristic scales smaller than (< 500 km). This highlights the preponderance of ‘standing’ small-scale structures in the global ocean due to the temporally coherent forcing by boundaries. By coarse-graining in space and time, we compute the first spatio-temporal global spectrum of geostrophic circulation from AVISO and NEMO. These spectra show that every length-scale evolves over a wide range of time-scales with a consistent peak at ≈200 km and ≈2–3 weeks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

UV-Vis spectrophotometric determination of rare earth elements (REE) speciation at near-neutral to alkaline pH. Part I: m-cresol purple properties from 25-75 °C and Er hydrolysis

The speciation and mobility of rare earth elements (REE) strongly depends on pH which controls the formation of charged aqueous hydroxyl species. The latter potentially play an important role in controlling heavy REE adsorption on clay minerals in near-neutral to alkaline waters such as in regolith-hosted REE mineral deposits. However, accurate REE hydrolysis constants are needed for developing geochemical models that can predict the role of these charged species in natural systems. Here, we develop a robust experimental UV-Vis spectrophotometric method using m-cresol purple to determine in situ pH from 25 to 75 °C. This method is used to derive the average ligand number and hydrolysis constants of erbium (Er) at 25 °C in aqueous solutions with low ionic strength (≤ 0.001 mol/L) at pH from ~7 to 9.5 and in the presence of Er concentrations from 0 to 0.057 mM. The average ligand number ranges between 1 and 3 indicating that Er(OH) 2+ , Er(OH) 2 + and Er(OH) 3 0 control speciation in the experiments. The logarithm of the Er hydrolysis constants (log*β n ° , n= 1 to 3) derived at infinite dilution for the reaction Er 3+ + nH 2 O = Er(OH) n 3-n + nH + are: *β 1 ° = –7.22 ± 0.10, *β 2 ° = –14.52 ± 0.08, *β 3 ° = –23.24 ± 0.04. Implementation of these experimental data into a geochemical model indicates that the Er(OH) 2 + and Er(OH) 3 0 species are both stable in a much wider pH range than previously predicted. Consequently, the positively charged REE hydroxyl complexes can potentially control the fractionation of light vs. heavy REE via adsorption as observed in the formation of certain regolith-hosted REE deposits.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Calculating Interval Uncertainties for Calibration Standards That Drift with Time

Calibrated values of many devices exhibit predictable drift over time. To provide an uncertainty statement valid over the entire calibration interval, one must account for drift. In this article, a method of accounting for drift is proposed based on guidance in the Guide to Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement. An additional uncertainty term is computed using a linear regression of historical measurement data, which is included along with the time-of-test uncertainty. This method is evaluated by analyzing its average out-of-tolerance (OOT) rate using a Monte Carlo simulation, which results in the desired 5% average OOT rate when the total uncertainty is expanded to a 95% confidence interval.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Model averaging approaches to data subset selection

Model averaging is a useful and robust method for dealing with model uncertainty in statistical analysis. Often, it is useful to consider data subset selection at the same time, in which model selection criteria are used to compare models across different subsets of the data. Two different criteria have been proposed in the literature for how the data subsets should be weighted. We compare the two criteria closely in a unified treatment based on the Kullback-Leibler divergence and conclude that one of them is subtly flawed and will tend to yield larger uncertainties due to loss of information. Here, analytical and numerical examples are provided.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Analytical desmearing of Bonse–Hart ultra-small-angle neutron scattering data via truncated Abel inversion

A non-iterative analytical framework based on the truncated Abel inversion is developed for desmearing Bonse–Hart ultra-small-angle neutron scattering (USANS) data. The method directly inverts the slit-averaged intensity without empirical extrapolation or iterative regularization, establishing a closed-form relationship between the measured and intrinsic scattering profiles. Numerical benchmarks on representative models, including a rigid-line form factor, a Lorentzian function and a fractal structural model, demonstrate quantitative recovery of the ground-truth intensity across the full Q range. Application to a deuterated polystyrene/poly(2-vinylpyridine) blend further confirms that the approach yields smooth continuous profiles consistent with companion small-angle neutron scattering data. The truncated Abel inversion thus provides a stable, model-independent and physically transparent route for accurate desmearing of Bonse–Hart USANS measurements.

Huang, Guan-Rong [National Tsing Hua University, T↗