Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “probabilistic”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 253 records · Page 14
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Fatty acid foams for nonselective physical removal of microplastics from aqueous solutions

Microplastics (MPs) are pervasive environmental contaminants whose removal from water remains a major challenge due to their small size, chemical diversity, and dynamic surface properties arising from environmental aging/weathering. Here, we present a concept of foam-based separation method that physically traps MPs in the foam phase using microtubular assemblies of 12-hydroxystearic acid. These foams are stabilized by anisotropic fatty acid microtubules formed in the presence of ethanolamine, which jam within the foam channels and suppress fluid drainage thereby enhancing MP retention and foam stability. MPs of different sizes, polymer compositions (including polystyrene, polypropylene, polyethylene terephthalate, and polytetrafluoroethylene), and weathered states were retained in the foam phase without requiring chemical modification or relying on chemical interactions between the fatty acid and MPs. Thermally induced transition of the fatty acid microtubules into nanomicelles above the characteristic phase transition temperature (∼35 °C) enables controlled foam collapse and recovery of trapped MPs. The cumulative removal efficiency can exceed 85% through multiple foaming cycles, matching predictions from a probabilistic retention model. This work shows that foams can provide a simple platform to trap MPs, thus providing a new physical-removal strategy that does not rely on the particles’ chemistry.

Guillot, Kennedy A. [Louisiana State Univ., Baton ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Acidities of MgO surface sites: implications for the formation mechanism of Mg(OH) 2

The hydroxylation of periclase (MgO) to brucite (Mg(OH) 2 ) is thought to be an important intermediate step when using MgO to capture CO 2 from the atmosphere. However, the mechanism of hydroxylation of MgO to form Mg(OH) 2 is poorly understood. In this work, we used atomic-scale density functional tight binding simulations coupled with the metadynamics rare event method to analyze the surface chemistry of MgO and the acid dissociation equilibrium constants (pK a ) of its surface sites. The method and parameters were validated by calculating the pK a for hydroxylation of the first shell water bound to aqueous Mg 2+ ion. The pK a value derived using a probabilistic method was 12.3, which is in fair agreement with the accepted value of 11.4, with the difference between them equal to a ∼5 kJ mol −1 error in the calculations. We then extended these pK a calculations to probe the hydroxylation reactions of the surface sites of the MgO(100)–water interface, arriving at pK a s of 5.4 to deprotonate terminal water molecules bound to the surface magnesium sites (η-OH 2 or 〉MgOH 2 ), and 13.9 to deprotonate hydroxylated bridging oxygen sites (μ 5 -oxo or 〉O). Hydroxide (OH − ) adsorption on the surface was also probed and found to be less thermodynamically favorable than deprotonation of the terminal water molecule. The plausibility of the computed pK a s was verified using an activity-based speciation model and compared to pH measurements of water equilibrated with MgO nanoparticles and single crystals. The model predicted a solution pH of 7.1 when surface sites buffered and the pH of 12.0 when MgO dissolution dominated. These are close to the experimental initial solution pHs of 7–7.5 and the long term pHs of ∼10.5. The similarity suggests that the calculated pK a values from the DFTB+/metadynamics simulations are plausible and that these methods can be a useful tool to probe reaction mechanisms involving covalent bonds.

Adapa, Sai Krishna Reddy [Oak Ridge National Labor↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cyber‐Resilient Distributed Energy Resource Control Algorithms for Smart Distribution Grids

ABSTRACT This paper focuses on the development of cyber‐resilient gradient‐based optimisation algorithms and theoretical proof for grid‐interactive distributed energy resource (DER) control to enable two grid services of virtual power plants (VPPs) dispatch and grid voltage regulation, considering the communication and security impacts. Firstly, the combined DER dispatch and voltage regulation as a real‐time gradient‐based optimisation problem is recapped. Thereafter, we consider a probabilistic traffic model to characterise packet delays and loss in a communication network, and study how the delays enter the process of information exchange among the grid measurement units, local DER controllers and the grid control centre that execute this control algorithm in a coordinated manner. Then, a strategy combining delay thresholds and message update rules is proposed to immunity the asynchrony resulting from the communications traffic and it avoids possible numerical instabilities and sensitivities of the power tracking and voltage regulation capabilities, resulting as cyber‐resilient DER control algorithms. Additionally, their convergence is theoretically proved. Effectiveness of proposed cyber‐resilient algorithms has been validated on the IEEE 37‐bus system in terms of convergence, VPP tracking and voltage regulation performance for smart distribution systems with high penetration of DERs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantum subspace expansion in the presence of hardware noise

Finding ground state energies on current quantum processing units (QPUs) using algorithms such as the variational quantum eigensolver (VQE) continues to pose challenges. Hardware noise severely affects both the expressivity and trainability of parameterized quantum circuits, limiting them to shallow depths in practice. Here, we demonstrate that both issues can be addressed by synergistically integrating VQE with a quantum subspace expansion, allowing for an optimal balance between quantum and classical computing capabilities and costs. We perform a systematic benchmark analysis of the iterative quantum-assisted eigensolver in the presence of hardware noise. We determine ground state energies of 1D and 2D mixed-field Ising spin models on noisy simulators and the IBM QPUs ibmq_quito (5 qubits) and ibmq_guadalupe (16 qubits). To maximize accuracy, we propose a suitable criterion to select the subspace basis vectors according to the trace of the noisy overlap matrix. Finally, we show how to systematically approach the exact solution by performing controlled quantum error mitigation based on probabilistic error reduction on the noisy backend fake_guadalupe.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Artificial-intelligence-driven shot reduction in quantum measurement

Variational Quantum Eigensolver (VQE) provides a powerful solution for approximating molecular ground state energies by combining quantum circuits and classical computers. However, estimating probabilistic outcomes on quantum hardware requires repeated measurements (shots), incurring significant costs as accuracy increases. Optimizing shot allocation is thus critical for improving the efficiency of VQE. Current strategies rely heavily on hand-crafted heuristics requiring extensive expert knowledge. This paper proposes a reinforcement learning (RL)-based approach that automatically learns shot assignment policies to minimize total measurement shots while achieving convergence to the minimum of the energy expectation in VQE. The RL agent assigns measurement shots across VQE optimization iterations based on the progress of the optimization. This approach reduces VQE's dependence on static heuristics and human expertise. When the RL-enabled VQE is applied to a small molecule, a shot reduction policy is learned. The policy demonstrates transferability across systems and compatibility with other wavefunction Ansätze. In addition to these specific findings, this work highlights the potential of RL for automatically discovering efficient and scalable quantum optimization strategies.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Bayesian desmearing algorithm for Bonse–Hart USANS with anisotropic scattering

Ultra-small-angle neutron scattering (USANS) using Bonse–Hart optics provides micrometer-scale structural insights but suffers from severe slit-geometry smearing. While well-established for isotropic systems, quantitative desmearing of anisotropic data remains a challenge because conventional corrections break down for non-radial scattering. In this work, we address this by developing a resolution-aware Bayesian framework that explicitly incorporates anisotropy via an affine deformation to the scattering pattern, guided by the principle of parsimony. This results in orientation-resolved point-spread functions that enable a self-consistent determination of both the resolution and deformation parameters. Using Gaussian process regression with uncertainty quantification and a probabilistic correction for multiple scattering, we demonstrate the framework’s effectiveness through numerical benchmarks and experimental studies of a stretched polymer melt. Our approach enables the seamless integration of SANS and USANS data, facilitating quantitative structural analysis of deformed materials at nanometer to micrometer scales.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Using the optimal combined index weight ratio to improve the probability of anomaly detection in big area additive manufacturing

Big Area Additive Manufacturing (BAAM) of composites requires significant time, energy, and material, so it is critical to reduce production inefficiencies to make functional parts without multiple iterations. Statistical process control coupled with Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is a powerful technique that provides a quick, computationally inexpensive, and intuitive way for operators to detect defects that form in a manufacturing process without massive datasets. Recently, a combined index that is a weighted sum of the Hotelling's T 2 and squared residual error statistics has been proposed that can be monitored in one chart, improving interpretation accuracy and simplicity. However, the literature does not offer a formal method to optimise the weights. Here, we introduce two new approaches to the traditional weight selection approach using simulated and BAAM image data. Approach 1 uses a theoretically motivated optimum inspired by probabilistic principal component analysis. Approach 2 systematically varies the ratio of the weights to find the optimum. We show that approach 1 delivers optimal anomaly detection performance in select cases while approach 2 fares better in practice. Surprisingly, we also show that choosing a more complex PCA model has a minimal negative impact on anomaly detection performance compared to a more simplistic model.

3-dimensional printing↗
DOE OSTI2025

Resolving Mixtures of Soot Characterized by SP-AMS Spectra Using a Latent Dirichlet Allocation Model

Soot produced by detonation or combustion events exhibits different chemical properties depending on the fuel, device construction, and environmental conditions in which the event occurs. These properties can be useful for defining relevant signatures for probabilistically identifying the different types of events that occurred, based on the soot that is produced from these events. However, it is rare to observe samples of soot from a detonation or combustion that are not contaminated by outside particles. In this paper, we present a method for resolving mixtures of soot to determine the contributions of sources that may be present in samples of recovered soot. We use Latent Dirichlet Allocation to describe the generative process for a sample of recovered soot, and use Variational Bayesian Inference to learn about the parameters associated with the generative model. We demonstrate the utility of this method by considering real samples of mixtures of soot under various frameworks to show that the model is able to identify the different components present in a sample of soot as well as their mixing proportions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Summary of the 5th IAEA technical meeting on fusion data processing, validation and analysis (FDPVA)

The purpose of the 5th International Atomic Energy Agency technical meeting on fusion data processing, validation and analysis (FDPVA) (Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium, 12–15 June 2023) was to provide a platform during which a set of topics relevant to FDPVA were discussed with the view of meeting the needs of next step fusion devices such as ITER. The validation and analysis of experimental data obtained from diagnostics used to characterize fusion plasmas are crucial for a knowledge-based understanding of the physical processes governing the dynamics of these plasmas. This paper presents the recent progress and achievements in the domain of plasma diagnostics data analysis and synthetic diagnostics reported at the meeting, including concept description of new devices; fusion databases; integrated data analysis; inverse problems; uncertainty propagation, verification and validation; probabilistic methods and machine learning. The relevant results underline trends observed in the current major fusion confinement devices.

fusion databases↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing the design of integrated methane sensing networks

Abstract While methane is the second largest contributor to global warming after carbon dioxide, it has a larger warming effect over a much shorter lifetime. Despite accelerated technological efforts to radically reduce global carbon dioxide emissions, rapid reductions in methane emissions are needed to limit near-term warming. Being primarily emitted as a byproduct from agricultural activities and energy extraction, methane is currently monitored via bottom–up (i.e. activity level) or top–down (via airborne or satellite retrievals) approaches. However, significant methane leaks remain undetected and emission rates are challenging to characterize with current monitoring frameworks. In this paper, we study the design of a layered monitoring approach that combines bottom–up and top–down approaches as an integrated sensing network. By recognizing that varying meteorological conditions and emission rates impact the efficacy of bottom–up monitoring, we develop a probabilistic approach to optimal sensor placement in its bottom–up network. Subsequently, we derive an inverse Bayesian framework to quantify the improvement that a design-optimized integrated framework has on emission-rate quantifications and their uncertainties. We find that under realistic meteorological conditions, the overall error in estimating the true emission rates is approximately 1.3 times higher, with their uncertainties being approximately 2.4 times higher, when using a randomized network over an optimized network, highlighting the importance of optimizing the design of integrated methane sensing networks. Further, we find that optimized networks can improve scenario coverage fractions by more than a factor of 2 over experimentally-studied networks, and identify a budget threshold beyond which the rate of optimized-network coverage improvement exhibits diminishing returns, suggesting that strategic sensor placement is also crucial for maximizing network efficiency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Upper bounds for 21st-century surface air temperatures in the Western United States

The last decade has seen a large number of severe heatwaves that were unprecedented in the observational record, highlighting challenges associated with observationally-based statistical quantification of the likelihood and magnitude of future extreme temperatures. An alternative to such probabilistic assessments is identification of upper bounds that quantify the hottest surface air temperatures that can possibly be achieved by the end of the 21st century. Theory, simulations, and observational analyses support the existence of a finite upper bound for surface air temperature; however, estimates for future upper-bound values that are realistic and usable for planning remain unavailable. Here, we combine atmospheric theory with large ensembles of dynamically downscaled projections to estimate historical and end-of-century upper bounds for surface air temperatures. A number of physical mechanisms can influence upper bounds, and at the end of the 21st century, estimates based on mechanisms that yield more moderate upper-bounds produce values around 60∘C for much of the Western United States and in excess of 80∘C for the hottest parts of the domain. Even cooler high-altitude locations have end-of-century upper bounds over 50∘C. Although these upper-bound estimates might seem implausibly large, increases in the upper bounds over the 21st century are similar to increases in dynamically downscaled peak surface temperatures after adjusting those downscaled temperatures to eliminate the possibly biased model trends in surface specific humidity. While upper bound estimates are high relative to historical observations, they nonetheless suggest that heatwave intensity risk is bounded, with uncertainty dominated by projections of surface and upper-level humidity.

Risser, Mark D↗
DOE OSTI2024

Computational prediction of dielectric breakdown strength of a transformer paper in oil with uncertainty quantification

The determination of the dielectric breakdown strengths of microstructurally heterogeneous materials has been a primarily experimental endeavor. We report the development of a microstructure-level model for computationally predicting the breakdown strength and analyzing the interactions between electromagnetic pulses (EMP) and the constituents in a composite of cellulose-based paper and mineral oil found in electrical transformers. The model allows explicit simulation of the material breakdown process by tracking the transition of dielectric constituents from non-conductive to conductive states. The focus is on the electric fields induced in the materials and the overall conditions for dielectric breakdown (defined as the onset of avalanche) caused by the electric field induced in the composite. Responses to three distinct pulse shapes, i.e., Steep Front (SF), Lightning (L), and AC with spectra spanning 60–9 × 105 Hz are considered. It is found that the breakdown strength of the material is significantly affected by microstructure heterogeneities, the spatial variations of the constituent properties, and the pulse shapes. A probabilistic characterization of the breakdown strength is computationally obtained and compared with experimental measurements. Although one particular material is analyzed, the model and approach are applicable to other heterogeneous materials as well.

breakdowns↗
DOE OSTI2026

Wasserstein normalized autoencoder for anomaly detection

A novel anomaly detection algorithm is presented. The Wasserstein normalized autoencoder (WNAE) is a normalized probabilistic model that minimizes the Wasserstein distance between the learned probability distribution—a Boltzmann distribution where the energy is the reconstruction error of the autoencoder (AE)—and the distribution of the training data. This algorithm has been developed and applied to the identification of semivisible jets—conical sprays of visible standard model (SM) particles and invisible dark matter states—with the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC. Trained on jets of particles from simulated SM processes, the WNAE is shown to learn the probability distribution of the input data in a fully unsupervised fashion, such that it effectively identifies new physics jets as anomalies. The model exhibits stable, convergent training and recovers strong classification performance for a wide range of signals against the selected background process, for which a standard AE fails because of outlier reconstruction. In addition, the model improves upon standard normalized autoencoders while remaining fully agnostic to the signal. The WNAE directly tackles the problem of outlier reconstruction, a common failure mode of autoencoders in anomaly detection tasks.

Hayrapetyan, Aram [Yerevan Phys. Inst.]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Future grid mix impacts on whole-building life cycle assessment

Building construction and operation are a significant contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions, so understanding and mitigating emissions is crucial for reliable and realistic emissions accounting. Whole-building Life Cycle Assessment (WBLCA) is an emissions accounting method that considers lifetime environmental impacts of a building during its construction, operation, and eventual end-of-life. When performing WBLCAs, emission calculations from the building's operation over the entire building lifespan are typically based on today's energy grid mixes. This method does not consider changes or advancements in the clean energy proportion within the grid mix and can over or under-inflate results, skewing the ratio of embodied vs. operational environmental impacts. While a variety of prediction tools estimate what future grid emissions might be, predictions can vary widely. To predict the clean energy ratio within future grid mixes and the potential impact these changes might have on WBLCA, annual data from several existing U.S. grid models was averaged and probabilistic modeling was used to extend the usable projections of shorter forecasts. Results show that clean energy sources will likely continue to increase over time, although the rate of growth varies by model. On average, by 2085, the clean energy penetration of the grid is projected to reach ~81% and renewable energy is projected to reach ~71%, although no widespread consensus is reached. To understand how the future grid mix impacts lifetime building emissions within a WBLCA context, the team analyzed two 2021 IECC-compliant all-electric residential buildings: one built from traditional materials and construction processes and the other built with carbon sequestering materials and modular assembly, with a portion of energy generated on site. The results indicate that a moderate estimate of future electricity grid mixes shows a reduction of yearly operational emissions for traditional residential buildings of 55% between 2025 and 2085, and a corresponding reduction of 48% of total emissions over a 60 year building lifespan. This study offers a nuanced approach to account for the variability of future grid mix models and provides an average trend-line based on a robust collection of scenarios.

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reducing model error using optimized galaxy selection: weak lensing cluster mass estimation

Galaxy clusters are one of the most powerful probes to study extensions of General Relativity and the Standard Cosmological Model. Upcoming surveys like the Vera Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time are expected to revolutionise the field, by enabling the analysis of cluster samples of unprecedented size and quality. To reach this era of high-precision cluster cosmology, the mitigation of sources of systematic error is crucial. A particularly important challenge is bias in cluster mass measurements induced by the mismodelling of photometric redshift estimates of source galaxies. This work proposes a method to optimise the source sample selection in cluster weak lensing analyses drawn from wide-field survey lensing catalogs to reduce the bias on reconstructed cluster masses. We use a combinatorial optimisation scheme and methods from variational inference to select galaxies in latent space to produce a probabilistic galaxy source sample catalog for highly accurate cluster mass estimation. We show that our method reduces the critical surface mass density Σ crit relative modelling bias on the 60-70% level, while maintaining up to 90% of galaxies. We highlight that our methodology has applications beyond cluster mass estimation as an approach to jointly combine galaxy selection and model inference under sources of systematics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

A dendritic strontium river isoscape for fisheries applications in the Sacramento River basin, California, USA

Objective Understanding the origins and movements of fish is fundamental to effective conservation and fisheries management. Strontium isotope ratios ( 87 Sr/ 86 Sr) in otoliths provide a powerful tracer of natal origin and migratory pathways. However, existing 87 Sr/ 86 Sr isoscapes for the Sacramento River basin, an ecosystem that supports ecologically and economically important salmon populations, rely on discrete classification approaches that overlook unsampled habitats and do not incorporate spatial uncertainty. Our objective was to develop a continuous, network-explicit 87 Sr/ 86 Sr isoscape with quantified uncertainty to fill in data gaps and enable probabilistic assignments of fish origin and movement. Methods We used river water 87 Sr/ 86 Sr data from 106 sites (1997–2021) to develop spatial stream network models that use dendritic connectivity and watershed characteristics (lithology, bedrock age, and land cover) to predict river water 87 Sr/ 86 Sr throughout the basin. Models were fitted using maximum and restricted likelihood and were evaluated via Akaike’s information criterion and leave-one-out cross validation. We produced both historical (pre-dam) and present-day (below-dam) isoscapes, delineated uncertainty-informed isotopic ranges using k -means clustering, and applied a proof-of-concept Bayesian assignment to estimate natal origins and early rearing habitats for two endangered winter-run Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha. Results Cross validation indicated strong performance of the 87 Sr/ 86 Sr model (leave-one-out cross validation: R 2 = 0.91; root mean square error = 0.0005). Uncertainty-informed clustering identified 19 isotopic “suites” (reaches with indistinguishable 87 Sr/ 86 Sr values) in present-day anadromous habitats and 25 suites in the historical network. Example natal and early rearing assignments included predictions that challenged expectations for juvenile salmon migration based on predicted river 87 Sr/ 86 Sr compositions. Conclusions This study developed a continuous, network-explicit 87 Sr/ 86 Sr isoscape that integrates existing river data to predict 87 Sr/ 86 Sr in unsampled reaches and the likely achievable range and resolution of otolith-based origin and life history inference. The resulting river isoscape provides a valuable tool to predict salmon movements and identify habitats supporting their survival and growth that otherwise might remain undetected. Coupling these predictions with complementary approaches that ground-truth juvenile presence (e.g., targeted fish surveys) represents an important step toward science-informed restoration and management of critical habitats throughout the Sacramento River basin.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating the impact of anatomical and physiological variability on human equivalent doses using PBPK models

Abstract Addressing human anatomical and physiological variability is a crucial component of human health risk assessment of chemicals. Experts have recommended probabilistic chemical risk assessment paradigms in which distributional adjustment factors are used to account for various sources of uncertainty and variability, including variability in the pharmacokinetic behavior of a given substance in different humans. In practice, convenient assumptions about the distribution forms of adjustment factors and human equivalent doses (HEDs) are often used. Parameters such as tissue volumes and blood flows are likewise often assumed to be lognormally or normally distributed without evaluating empirical data for consistency with these forms. In this work, we performed dosimetric extrapolations using physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models for dichloromethane (DCM) and chloroform that incorporate uncertainty and variability to determine if the HEDs associated with such extrapolations are approximately lognormal and how they depend on the underlying distribution shapes chosen to represent model parameters. We accounted for uncertainty and variability in PBPK model parameters by randomly drawing their values from a variety of distribution types. We then performed reverse dosimetry to calculate HEDs based on animal points of departure for each set of sampled parameters. Corresponding samples of HEDs were tested to determine the impact of input parameter distributions on their central tendencies, extreme percentiles, and degree of conformance to lognormality. This work demonstrates that the measurable attributes of human variability should be considered more carefully and that generalized assumptions about parameter distribution shapes may lead to inaccurate estimates of extreme percentiles of HEDs.

Toxicology↗
DOE OSTI2026

Determination of proton PDF uncertainties with Markov chain Monte Carlo

We present an analysis of parton distribution functions (PDFs) of the proton using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The MCMC approach naturally implements Bayes’ theorem and, thus, provides a means to directly sample the underlying probability distribution—in this case, the probability distribution of the PDF parameters. This allows for a straightforward propagation of the resulting uncertainties into any PDF-dependent observable, preserving their simple probabilistic interpretation. In our analysis we include a broad set of deep inelastic scattering data from HERA, BCDMS and NMC experiments along with the Drell-Yan, 𝑊 and 𝑍 boson data from LHC and Tevatron experiments, which combined with theoretical calculations at next-to-next-to-leading order in QCD allow for realistic determination of PDFs. The main focus of this analysis is to explore alternative methods for PDF uncertainty estimation that are more firmly grounded in statistical principles. We show that the flexibility of the Bayes framework, allowing one, e.g., to account for non-Gaussianity or inconsistencies of datasets, is crucial to extract realistic uncertainties when such assumptions are not fulfilled. We also demonstrate that MCMC allows one to determine the Δ⁢𝜒 2 value corresponding to a given confidence level in the sample, which can, in turn, be used as a statistically well-founded tolerance criterion used in the Hessian method, thus addressing one of its main long-standing drawbacks.

Risse, Peter Clemens [Universität Münster (Germany↗