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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Variability and Trends in Dates of the Last Spring Freeze and the First Fall Freeze over the United States

The timing of the last freeze of the spring and the first freeze in the fall have implications for agriculture and ecosystems in a region, and changes in theses dates are expected with a changing climate. In this study, indices used to represent these dates are computed from the Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). The indices are analyzed over the United States to assess the climatology, trends, and variability over 1980-2023. In general, the last spring freeze date has trended earlier, and the first fall freeze date has trended later over this period; regional variations in these trends are investigated. We explore drivers of interannual variability in the timing of the last spring freeze and first fall freeze for different regions of the United States.

Natalie Thomas↗
DOE OSTI2021

A review of trends and drivers of greenhouse gas emissions by sector from 1990 to 2018

Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can be traced to five economic sectors: energy, industry, buildings, transport and AFOLU (agriculture, forestry and other land uses). In this topical review, we synthesize the literature to explain recent trends in global and regional emissions in each of these sectors. To contextualize our review, we present estimates of GHG emissions trends by sector from 1990 to 2018, describing the major sources of emissions growth, stability and decline across ten global regions. Overall, the literature and data emphasize that progress towards reducing GHG emissions has been limited. The prominent global pattern is a continuation of underlying drivers with few signs of emerging limits to demand, nor of a deep shift towards the delivery of low and zero carbon services across sectors. We observe a moderate decarbonization of energy systems in Europe and North America, driven by fuel switching and the increasing penetration of renewables. By contrast, in rapidly industrializing regions, fossil-based energy systems have continuously expanded, only very recently slowing down in their growth. Strong demand for materials, floor area, energy services and travel have driven emissions growth in the industry, buildings and transport sectors, particularly in Eastern Asia, Southern Asia and South-East Asia. An expansion of agriculture into carbon-dense tropical forest areas has driven recent increases in AFOLU emissions in Latin America, South-East Asia and Africa. Identifying, understanding, and tackling the most persistent and climate-damaging trends across sectors is a fundamental concern for research and policy as humanity treads deeper into the Anthropocene.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2006

Future Mission Trends and their Implications for the Deep Space Network

Planning for the upgrade and/or replacement of Deep Space Network (DSN) assets that typically operate for forty or more years necessitates understanding potential customer needs as far into the future as possible. This paper describes the methodology Deep Space Network (DSN) planners use to develop this understanding, some key future mission trends that have emerged from application of this methodology, and the implications of the trends for the DSN's future evolution. For NASA's current plans out to 2030, these trends suggest the need to accommodate: three times as many communication links, downlink rates two orders of magnitude greater than today's, uplink rates some four orders of magnitude greater, and end-to-end link difficulties two-to-three orders of magnitude greater. To meet these challenges, both DSN capacity and capability will need to increase.

future mission needs↗
NASA NTRS2008

Anomaly Trends for Missions to Mars: Mars Global Surveyor and Mars Odyssey

The long term flight operations of the Mars Global Surveyor and Mars Odyssey spacecraft give us an excellent chance to examine the operations of two long lived spacecraft in orbit around Mars during overlapping time periods. This study examined the anomalies for each mission maintained for NASA at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. By examining the anomalies each mission encountered during their multiyear missions, trends were identified related to when anomalies occurred during each mission, the types of anomalies encountered, and corrective actions taken to mitigate the effects of the anomalies. As has been discovered in previous studies the numbers of anomalies directly correlate with mission activity and show a decreasing trend with elapsed mission time. Trend analysis also identified a heavy emphasis on software as the source or solution to anomalies for both missions.

Mars↗
NASA NTRS2014

Management and Climate Contributions to Satellite-Derived Active Fire Trends in the Contiguous United States

Fires in croplands, plantations, and rangelands contribute significantly to fire emissions in the United States, yet are often overshadowed by wildland fires in efforts to develop inventories or estimate responses to climate change. Here we quantified decadal trends, interannual variability, and seasonality of Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations of active fires (thermal anomalies) as a function of management type in the contiguous U.S. during 2001-2010. We used the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity database to identify active fires within the perimeter of large wildland fires and land cover maps to identify active fires in croplands. A third class of fires defined as prescribed/other included all residual satellite active fire detections. Large wildland fires were the most variable of all three fire types and had no significant annual trend in the contiguous U.S. during 2001-2010. Active fires in croplands, in contrast, increased at a rate of 3.4 percent per year. Cropland and prescribed/other fire types combined were responsible for 77 percent of the total active fire detections within the U.S and were most abundant in the south and southeast. In the west, cropland active fires decreased at a rate of 5.9 percent per year, likely in response to intensive air quality policies. Potential evaporation was a dominant regulator of the interannual variability of large wildland fires, but had a weaker influence on the other two fire types. Our analysis suggests it may be possible to modify landscape fire emissions within the U.S. by influencing the way fires are used in managed ecosystems.

Satellite-derived↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluating Twenty-Year Trends in Earth’s Energy Flows from Observations

Recent satellite and ocean in-situ observations indicate a doubling of Earth’s Energy Imbalance (EEI) since 2005 that is a consequence of anthropogenic forcing, internal variability, and climate feedbacks. In this study, we follow-up with an assessment of how other components of Earth’s energy budget have changed since 2000 and how well these can be tracked. Specifically, we use top-of-atmosphere and surface observations from the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) and calculations of atmospheric divergence of energy transport from ERA-5 to determine the change in total surface flux along with its radiative and turbulent heat flux components. We also assess trends in ocean heat uptake for different ocean layers using various ocean reanalysis datasets. We compare trends derived using various observational and modeling approaches to assess how robust the derived trends are. Our analysis is restricted to global, hemispheric and regional spatial scales and annual mean and seasonal timescales.

CERES↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Footprints of 16 Year Trends of Arctic Springtime Cloud and Radiation Properties on September Sea Ice Retreat

The most prominent September Arctic sea ice decline over the period of 2000–2015 occurs over the Siberian Sea, Laptev Sea, and Kara Sea. The satellite observed and retrieved sea ice concentration (SIC) and cloud/radiation properties over the Arctic (70°–90°N) have been used to investigate the impact of springtime cloud and radiation properties on September SIC variation. Positive trends of cloud fractions, cloud water paths, and surface downward longwave flux at the surface over the September sea ice retreat areas are found over the period of 1 March to 14 May, while negative trends are found over the period of 15 May to 28 June. The spatial distributions of correlations between springtime cloud/radiation properties and September SIC have been calculated, indicating that increasing cloud fractions and downward longwave flux during springtime tend to enhance sea ice melting due to strong cloud warming effect. Surface downward and upward shortwave fluxes play an important role from May to June when the onset of sea ice melting occurs. The comparison between linearly detrended and nondetrended of each parameter indicates that significant impact of cloud and radiation properties on September sea ice retreat occurs over the Chukchi/Beaufort Sea at interannual time scale, especially over the period of 31 March to 29 April, while strongest climatological trends are found over the Laptev/Siberian Sea.

Arctic sea ice trend↗
DOE OSTI2024

Blind QC trend presentation

Blind testing is used to evaluate performance of the radiobioassay laboratory. DOE-STD-1112-2019 requires a radiobioassay program to perform blind testing at a documented frequency including accuracy, false positive, false negative, and sensitivity evaluations. INL trends accuracy determinations over time for bias, agreement, and precision. Trends have been identified for certain isotopes in urine and feces that have not been fully explained. This presentation will review those identified trends and discuss possible causes and solutions.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2024

Counterintuitive Trend of Intrusion Pressure with Temperature in the Hydrophobic Cu 2 (tebpz) MOF

Liquid porosimetry experiments reveal a peculiar trend of the intrusion pressure of water in hydrophobic Cu 2 (3,3',5,5'-tetraethyl-4,4'-bipyrazolate) MOF. At lower temperature (T) range, the intrusion pressure (P i ) increases with T. For higher T values, P i first reaches a maximum and then decreases. This is at odds with the Young–Laplace law, which for systems showing a continuous decrease of contact angle with T predicts a corresponding reduction of the intrusion pressure. Though the Young–Laplace law is not expected to provide quantitative predictions at the subnanoscale of Cu 2 (tebpz) pores, the physical intuition suggests that to a reduction of their hydrophobicity corresponds a reduction of the P i . Molecular dynamics simulations and sychrothron experiments allowed to clarify the mechanism of the peculiar trend of P i with T. At increasing temperatures the vapor density within the MOF’ pores grows significantly, bringing the corresponding partial pressure to ≈5 MPa. This pressure, which is consistent with the shift of P i observed in liquid porosimetry, represents a threshold to be overcame before intrusion takes place. Beyond some value of temperature, the phenomenon of reduction of hydrophobicity (and water surface tension) dominated over the opposite effect of increase of vapor pressure and P i inverts its trend with T.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Profiling overstory survival trends following varying thinning and burning disturbance regimes in a mixed pine-hardwood forest in the US South

Prescribed burning as a silvicultural tool may be effective for achieving various management objectives, yet some practitioners have concerns about inadvertently increasing overstory tree mortality. Using extensive data from a long-term, ongoing study in northcentral Alabama, USA, that systematically applies a variety of thinning and prescribed burning disturbances on mixed pine-hardwood stands, we assess survival trends for different groups of trees. The primary research question is whether more frequent prescribed burns adversely affects overstory survival versus infrequent or no burns; secondary questions explore whether overstory survival trends differ based on thinning level, species group, or size class. Interest is in broad groups of trees, not individual tree survival or mortality; consequently, survival analysis methods are used, including nonparametric Kaplan-Meier (KM) techniques for examining single grouping factors, and parametric accelerated failure time models for analyzing simultaneous effects of multiple covariates. Leveraging relatively recent methodological advances, the statistical techniques are adjusted for interval censored data. KM survival curves showed that more frequent prescribed fires did not result in differing survival trends. Also, trees in unthinned stands had the lowest 14-year survival compared to thinned stands, oaks had the highest survival compared to pines and the others species group, and the smallest size class of overstory trees had the lowest survival. In conclusion, these results support managing transitional mixed pine-hardwoods using thinning and multiple prescribed fires to restore specific species composition and structure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Divergent urbanization-induced impacts on global surface urban heat island trends since 1980s

Urbanization experiences different speeds and forms under diverse development stages across the globe. However, urbanization-induced impacts on long-term surface urban heat island intensity (I s ) trends across global cities and the regulators of such impacts remain understudied. Here we estimate interannual trends in daytime I s (i.e., urban-rural differences in surface temperatures) across 511 major cities for 1985 –2020 using annual averages calculated by using reconstructed land surface temperature data derived from more than >250,000 Landsat thermal images. Our study reveals that the global mean I s growth rate is 0.156 °C/decade. We further examine I s change associated with per 1% impervious land growth (denoted as ß) in each city throughout the research period and during different periods. The global mean ß is 0.018 ± 0.025 °C/% (mean ± 1 standard deviation) for the whole period, with greater values in humid than in arid climates; and the ß may change during different periods, e.g., it has more than tripled when urban impervious land exceeds 30%, indicating the spatiotemporally divergent impacts of urbanization on Is trends across global cities. The spatial variations in ß across global cities are well correlated with rural vegetation abundance and precipitation but not with urban population. Among these three factors, rural vegetation abundance possesses the greatest standardized regression coefficient of partial least-squares model, signifying the critical role of biome background in regulating ß. Furthermore, the finding implies that future urbanization over densely vegetated regions should be more carefully and strategically planned due to the greater urbanization-induced surface warming effect.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improving ChemCam LIBS long-distance elemental compositions using empirical abundance trends

The ChemCam instrument on the Curiosity rover provides chemical compositions of Martian rocks and soils using remote laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS). The elemental calibration is stable as a function of distance for Ti, Fe, Mg, and Ca. The calibration shows small, systematically increasing abundance trends as a function of distance for Al, Na, K, and to some extent, Si. The distance effect is known to be due to a dependence with distance on the relative strengths of atomic transition lines. Emission lines representing transitions from relatively low energy levels remain intense at longer distances while emission lines representing transitions from higher energy levels decrease in intensity more rapidly as a function of distance. The multivariate algorithms used to determine elemental compositions rely on a large number of emission lines in many cases, so rather than trying to correct all emission lines, a study was made of the predicted compositions as a function of distance, in order to determine an empirical correction. Abundance trends can be well approximated by a linear trend with distance within the ranges of abundances and distances observed up to ~6 m. Data from 11 distinct geological members and data groups of the Murray formation in Gale crater, Mars, were used to form the model, selecting the members and data groups yielding the best statistics. The model was tested using data from several targets observed from two different distances, and using data from the Kimberley formation, the composition of which is significantly different from the Murray formation, showing that the model works on other compositions beyond those used to build the model. For long-distance observations up to ~6 m, corrections can be made back to an equivalent composition at the median distance of ChemCam observations (2.6 m). Finally, the model has been validated up to 6.2 m, although ChemCam is able to observe bedrock targets to >7 m, and iron meteorites to distances of >9 m.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Thermodynamic Trends for Reduction of CO by Molecular Complexes

Selective reduction of CO 2 into fuels and chemical feedstocks is highly desirable to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels. Most molecular catalysts afford 2e – reduction products, such as CO or HCO 2 – , as opposed to more reduced products. Here we present an analysis of the thermodynamic limitations for reduction of the CO ligand in the form of a series of isostructural group 6 carbonyl complexes, Cp*M(CO) 3 (P(OMe) 3 ) + (M = Cr, Mo, and W). Additionally, the free energy for stepwise transfer of a hydride (H – ) and a proton (H + ) to the CO ligand, resulting in a hydroxycarbene (CHOH) complex, was measured by equilibration with H – /H + donors and acceptors with known hydricity or acidity. Together, these two reaction steps are equivalent to a net addition of H 2 across the CO ligand. A large and unfavorable free energy for H 2 addition (Δ G ° H2 ) was measured for all three complexes and decreases in the order Cr > Mo > W. The trend for these complexes is opposite to the trend previously reported for group 7 carbonyl complexes, for which Δ G ° H2 decreases moving up the group, Re > Mn. Computational analysis indicates the trends can be described in terms of electrostatic effects, where a low Δ G ° H2 is obtained in complexes that balance the atomic charges of the M–C≡O fragment of the complex. These findings can be used to design metal carbonyl complexes with a more energetically accessible H 2 addition, which will facilitate the development of molecular catalysts for reduction of CO.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Trends in Global Tropical Cyclone Activity: 1990–2021

Abstract This study investigates global tropical cyclone (TC) activity trends from 1990 to 2021, a period marked by largely consistent observational platforms. Several global TC metrics have decreased during this period, with significant decreases in hurricane numbers and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). Most of this decrease has been driven by significant downward trends in the western North Pacific. Globally, short‐lived named storms, 24‐hr intensification events of ≥50 kt day −1 , and TC‐related damage have increased significantly. The increase in short‐lived named storms is likely due to technological improvements, while rapidly intensifying TC increases may be fueled by higher potential intensity. Damage increases are largely due to increased coastal assets. The significant decrease in hurricane numbers and global ACE are likely due to the trend toward a more La Niña‐like base state from 1990 to 2021, favoring North Atlantic TC activity and suppressing North and South Pacific TC activity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing Latent and Kinetic Energy Trend Changes in Extratropical Cyclones From 1940 to 2020: Results From ERA‐5 Reanalysis

Abstract Baroclinic or extratropical cyclones (ETCs) transport heat and moisture to higher latitudes, making it fundamentally important to understand how their influence changes as Earth's climate evolves. A 2–8‐day Lanzcos bandpass filter is applied to European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting 5th Generation Reanalysis latent energy (LE) and kinetic energy (KE) data to assess how ETCs have changed from 1940 to 2020 relative to full‐scale changes in LE and KE. Full‐scale KE trends are more positive at high latitudes relative to mid‐latitudes, confirming several previous studies that ETCs have shifted poleward. LE increases have occurred globally, and trends in both full‐scale LE and KE are statistically significant in the southern high latitudes. The high relative fractional contribution of 2–8‐day LE wave power and trend clearly suggest that ETCs have an increasingly important role in poleward moisture transport but are not solely responsible for the observed statistically significant increases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Unique Temperature Trend Pattern Associated With Internally Driven Global Cooling and Arctic Warming During 1980–2022

Abstract Diagnosing the role of internal variability over recent decades is critically important for both model validation and projections of future warming. Recent research suggests that for 1980–2022 internal variability manifested as Global Cooling and Arctic Warming (i‐GCAW), leading to enhanced Arctic Amplification (AA), and suppressed global warming over this period. Here we show that such an i‐GCAW is rare in CMIP6 large ensembles, but simulations that do produce similar i‐GCAW exhibit a unique and robust internally driven global surface air temperature (SAT) trend pattern. This unique SAT trend pattern features enhanced warming in the Barents and Kara Sea and cooling in the Tropical Eastern Pacific and Southern Ocean. Given that these features are imprinted in the observed record over recent decades, this work suggests that internal variability makes a crucial contribution to the discrepancy between observations and model‐simulated forced SAT trend patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Recent Increasing Trend in October–November Caribbean Tropical Cyclone Activity

October–November Caribbean tropical cyclone (TC) activity has significant impacts for both the Caribbean islands and Central America (e.g., Hurricanes Eta and Iota in 2020). October–November Caribbean TCs can also track northward and make continental United States landfall, resulting in substantial damage and fatalities (e.g., Hurricane Michael in 2018 and Delta and Zeta in 2020). We find significant increasing trends in October–November Caribbean hurricanes, rapidly intensifying hurricanes (winds increasing by ≥15 m s −1 within 24 hr), and landfalling hurricanes during the global satellite era (1979–present). Since 1979, we also observe significant warming trends in the western Atlantic Warm Pool and anomalous relative cooling in the eastern Pacific during October–November. These trends yield a more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for Caribbean TCs, including reductions in Caribbean vertical wind shear, increases in Caribbean potential intensity, and a more TC-conducive African easterly jet.

Klotzbach, P. J. [Colorado State Univ., Fort Colli↗
DOE OSTI2021

Contrasting long-term temperature trends reveal minor changes in projected potential evapotranspiration in the US Midwest

Abstract Warming generally leads to increased evaporative demand, altering the amount of water needed for growing crops. For the Midwest, some studies have suggested that reaching yield targets by 2050 will not be possible without additional precipitation or large expansion of irrigation. Here, we show that this claim is not supported by the historical summer climate trends, which indicate that the warming of daily average temperatures is largely driven by increases in minimum temperatures, while maximum temperatures have decreased. This has translated into a net decrease in vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and potential evapotranspiration (PET). With the increasing rainfall, this suggests that crop water deficits have likely become less frequent in the region despite the warming climate. By projecting these trends into 2050 and ancillary use of a crop model, we estimate minor changes in PET that would have minimal effects on corn yields (<6%) under persistence of these trends.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗