Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Applied Probability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Oceanographic Conditions. 2007 - 2040. North Slope Alaska.

Complete representations of oceanographic conditions require spatial and temporal information about the significant wave height (Hs), peak wave period (Tp), wind speed, wind direction, wave direction, water level, salinity, and temperature. This data develops location-independent typologies to reduce the number of boundary conditions needed to assess nearshore oceanographic environments in both a Historical (2007-2019) and Future (2020-2040) timespan along the Alaskan North Slope. Wave information for both time spans were generated from WaveWatch III, Delft3D-FLOW, and Delft3D-WAVE simulations forced by wind conditions from reanalysis data (e.g., ASRv2 and ERA5) for the historical simulations while projected conditions were obtained from downscaled GFDL-CM3 forced under RCP8.5 conditions. Salinity was generated from GOFS 3.1 for the years between 2008-2015 and skin temperature of the ocean was obtained from ASRv2 reanalysis data for the years between 2007-2016. To identify generalized oceanographic typologies, K-means clustering was applied to the energy-weighted joint-probability distribution of Hs and Tp at six sites along the North Slope of Alaska. Distributions of wave and wind direction, wind speed, and water level associated with locaiton-indepndent centroids were assigned single values to describe a reduced order, typological rendition of offshore oceanographic conditions. These final typologies and their constituent data are provided here and can be used to evaluate the change in ocean energy over the next two decades in response to climate change and provide insight into expected consequences such as coastal erosion and flooding. A full assessment of the findings and techniques developed can be found in: Eymold, W.K., Flanary, C., Erikson, L., Nederhoff, K., Chartrand, C.C., Jones, C., Kasper, J., and Bull, D.L. Typological Representation of the Offshore Oceanographic Environment along the Alaskan North Slope. Continental Shelf Research (2022). 10.1016/j.csr.2022.104795

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Nonadiabatic Flamelet Formulation for Predicting Wall Heat Transfer in Rocket Engines

A flamelet-based combustion model is introduced for the prediction of wall heat transfer in rocket engines and confined combustion systems. To account for convective heat loss due to the interaction of the flame with the wall, a permeable thermal boundary condition is introduced in the counterflow diffusion flame configuration. The solution of the resulting nonadiabatic flame structure forms a three-dimensional manifold, which is parameterized in terms of mixture fraction, progress variable, and temperature. The performance of the model is first assessed through a direct numerical simulation analysis of an H 2 /O 2 diffusion flame that is stabilized at an inert isothermal wall. The developed nonadiabatic flamelet model is shown to accurately predict the temperature, chemical composition, and wall heat transfer. Combined with a presumed probability density function closure, the model is then applied to large-eddy simulation of a single-injector rocket combustor to examine effects of heat transfer on the turbulent flame structure in rocket engines.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1975

Heavy Ion Fragmentation Experiments at the Bevatron

Fragmentation processes of heavy nuclei in matter using the heavy-ion capability of the Bevatron were studied. The purpose was to obtain the single particle inclusive spectra of secondary nuclei produced at 0 deg by the fragmentation of heavy ion beam projectiles. The process being examined is B+T yields F + anything, where B is the beam nucleus, T is the target nucleus, and F is the detected fragment. The fragments F are isotopically identified by experimental procedures involving magnetic analysis, energy loss and time-of-flight measurements. Attempts were also made to: (1) measure the total and partial production cross section for all isotopes, (2) test the applicability of high-energy multi-particle interaction theory to nuclear fragmentation, (3) apply the cross-section data and fragmentation probabilities to cosmic ray transport theory, and (4) search for systematic behavior of fragment production as a means to improve existing semi-empirical theories of cross sections.

Heckman, H. H.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Time-dependent MOS breakdown

A general model for time-dependent breakdown in metal-oxide-silicon (MOS) structures is developed and related to experimental measurements on samples deliberately contaminated with Na. A statistical method is used for measuring the breakdown probability as a function of log time and applied field. It is shown that three time regions of breakdown can be explained respectively in terms of silicon surface defects, ion emission from the metal interface, and lateral ion diffusion at the silicon interface.

Li, S. P.↗
NASA NTRS1986

A method for developing design diagrams for ceramic and glass materials using fatigue data

The service lifetime of glass and ceramic materials can be expressed as a plot of time-to-failure versus applied stress whose plot is parametric in percent probability of failure. This type of plot is called a design diagram. Confidence interval estimates for such plots depend on the type of test that is used to generate the data, on assumptions made concerning the statistical distribution of the test results, and on the type of analysis used. This report outlines the development of design diagrams for glass and ceramic materials in engineering terms using static or dynamic fatigue tests, assuming either no particular statistical distribution of test results or a Weibull distribution and using either median value or homologous ratio analysis of the test results.

Heslin, T. M.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Numerical solutions of the complete Navier-Stokes equations

A hybrid Reynolds averaged/assumed probability density function (PDF) approach was developed and applied to the study of turbulent combustion in a supersonic mixing layer. This approach was used to address the laminar-like treatment of the thermochemical terms that appear in the conservation equations. Calculations were carried out for two experiments involving H2-air supersonic turbulent mixing. A SPARK combustion model was employed. In general, the approach shows modest improvement over previous calculations.

Hassan, H. A.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Pressure algorithm for elliptic flow calculations with the PDF method

An algorithm to determine the mean pressure field for elliptic flow calculations with the probability density function (PDF) method is developed and applied. The PDF method is a most promising approach for the computation of turbulent reacting flows. Previous computations of elliptic flows with the method were in conjunction with conventional finite volume based calculations that provided the mean pressure field. The algorithm developed and described here permits the mean pressure field to be determined within the PDF calculations. The PDF method incorporating the pressure algorithm is applied to the flow past a backward-facing step. The results are in good agreement with data for the reattachment length, mean velocities, and turbulence quantities including triple correlations.

Anand, M. S.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Launch pad lightning protection effectiveness

Using the striking distance theory that lightning leaders will strike the nearest grounded point on their last jump to earth corresponding to the striking distance, the probability of striking a point on a structure in the presence of other points can be estimated. The lightning strokes are divided into deciles having an average peak current and striking distance. The striking distances are used as radii from the points to generate windows of approach through which the leader must pass to reach a designated point. The projections of the windows on a horizontal plane as they are rotated through all possible angles of approach define an area that can be multiplied by the decile stroke density to arrive at the probability of strokes with the window average striking distance. The sum of all decile probabilities gives the cumulative probability for all strokes. The techniques can be applied to NASA-Kennedy launch pad structures to estimate the lightning protection effectiveness for the crane, gaseous oxygen vent arm, and other points. Streamers from sharp points on the structure provide protection for surfaces having large radii of curvature. The effects of nearby structures can also be estimated.

Stahmann, James R.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Periodic Application of Concurrent Error Detection in Processor Array Architectures

Processor arrays can provide an attractive architecture for some applications. Featuring modularity, regular interconnection and high parallelism, such arrays are well-suited for VLSI/WSI implementations, and applications with high computational requirements, such as real-time signal processing. Preserving the integrity of results can be of paramount importance for certain applications. In these cases, fault tolerance should be used to ensure reliable delivery of a system's service. One aspect of fault tolerance is the detection of errors caused by faults. Concurrent error detection (CED) techniques offer the advantage that transient and intermittent faults may be detected with greater probability than with off-line diagnostic tests. Applying time-redundant CED techniques can reduce hardware redundancy costs. However, most time-redundant CED techniques degrade a system's performance.

Chen, Paul Peichuan↗
NASA NTRS1995

The CCD/Transit Instrument (CTI) data-analysis system

The automated software system for archiving, analyzing, and interrogating data from the CCD/Transit Instrument (CTI) is described. The CTI collects up to 450 Mbytes of image-data each clear night in the form of a narrow strip of sky observed in two colors. The large data-volumes and the scientific aims of the project make it imperative that the data are analyzed within the 24-hour period following the observations. To this end a fully automatic and self evaluating software system has been developed. The data are collected from the telescope in real-time and then transported to Tucson for analysis. Verification is performed by visual inspection of random subsets of the data and obvious cosmic rays are detected and removed before permanent archival is made to the optical disc. The analysis phase is performed by a pair of linked algorithms, one operating on the absolute pixel-values and the other on the spatial derivative of the data. In this way both isolated and merged images are reliably detected in a single pass. In order to isolate the latter algorithm from the effects of noise spikes a 3x3 Hanning filter is applied to the raw data before the analysis is run. The algorithms reduce the input pixel-data to a database of measured parameters for each image which has been found. A contrast filter is applied in order to assign a detection-probability to each image and then x-y calibration and intensity calibration are performed using known reference stars in the strip. These are added to as necessary by secondary standards boot-strapped from the CTI data itself. The final stages involve merging the new data into the CTI Master-list and History-list and the automatic comparison of each new detection with a set of pre-defined templates in parameter-space to find interesting objects such as supernovae, quasars and variable stars. Each stage of the processing from verification to interesting image selection is performed under a data-logging system which both controls the pipe-lining of data through the system and records key performance monitor parameters which are built into the software. Furthermore, the data from each stage are stored in databases to facilitate evaluation, and all stages offer the facility to enter keyword-indexed free-format text into the data-logging system. In this way a large measure of certification is built into the system to provide the necessary confidence in the end results.

Cawson, M. G. M.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Modified Universal Design Survey: Enhancing Operability of Launch Vehicle Ground Crew Worksites

Operability is a driving requirement for next generation space launch vehicles. Launch site ground operations include numerous operator tasks to prepare the vehicle for launch or to perform preflight maintenance. Ensuring that components requiring operator interaction at the launch site are designed for optimal human use is a high priority for operability. To promote operability, a Design Quality Evaluation Survey based on Universal Design framework was developed to support Human Factors Engineering (HFE) evaluation for NASA s launch vehicles. Universal Design per se is not a priority for launch vehicle processing however; applying principles of Universal Design will increase the probability of an error free and efficient design which promotes operability. The Design Quality Evaluation Survey incorporates and tailors the seven Universal Design Principles and adds new measures for Safety and Efficiency. Adapting an approach proven to measure Universal Design Performance in Product, each principle is associated with multiple performance measures which are rated with the degree to which the statement is true. The Design Quality Evaluation Survey was employed for several launch vehicle ground processing worksite analyses. The tool was found to be most useful for comparative judgments as opposed to an assessment of a single design option. It provided a useful piece of additional data when assessing possible operator interfaces or worksites for operability.

Blume, Jennifer L.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Application of a Modified Universal Design Survey for Evaluation of Ares 1 Ground Crew Worksites

Operability is a driving requirement for NASA's Ares 1 launch vehicle. Launch site ground operations include several operator tasks to prepare the vehicle for launch or to perform maintenance. Ensuring that components requiring operator interaction at the launch site are designed for optimal human use is a high priority for operability. To support design evaluation, the Ares 1 Upper Stage (US) element Human Factors Engineering (HFE) group developed a survey based on the Universal Design approach. Universal Design is a process to create products that can be used effectively by as many people as possible. Universal Design per se is not a priority for Ares 1 because launch vehicle processing is a specialized skill and not akin to a consumer product that should be used by all people of all abilities. However, applying principles of Universal Design will increase the probability of an error free and efficient design which is a priority for Ares 1. The Design Quality Evaluation Survey centers on the following seven principles: (1) Equitable use, (2) Flexibility in use, (3) Simple and intuitive use, (4) Perceptible information, (5) Tolerance for error, (6) Low physical effort, (7) Size and space for approach and use. Each principle is associated with multiple evaluation criteria which were rated with the degree to which the statement is true. All statements are phrased in the utmost positive, or the design goal so that the degree to which judgments tend toward "completely agree" directly reflects the degree to which the design is good. The Design Quality Evaluation Survey was employed for several US analyses. The tool was found to be most useful for comparative judgments as opposed to an assessment of a single design option. It provided a useful piece of additional data when assessing possible operator interfaces or worksites for operability

Blume, Jennifer L.↗
DOE OSTI2024

ML Classifier Fusion for Three Data Streams with Quality Inversely Proportional to Time Resolution

We consider a monitoring scenario of phenomenon using three different streams of measurements whose quality is proportional to their constant inter-arrival times. Each measurement of a stream needs to be binary-classified to reflect the state of interest of the phenomenon. A set of classifiers is separately trained and fused for each stream at its time resolution using measurements collected under known states. We present a machine learning method to fuse the outputs of these fusers to provide a final classification at the finest time resolution. We show that this fused-fusers method provides decisions with likely superior classification probability compared to the best individual classifiers and fused-classifiers. We derive generalization equations that guarantee a superior classification probability of fused-fusers with a confidence probability specified by the classifiers’ generalization equations. We apply these results to study a practical problem of classifying Pu/Np target dissolution events at a radiochemical processing facility using gamma spectral measurements of effluent flows.

Rao, Nageswara↗
DOE OSTI2021

GANISP (GAN-assisted Importance SPlitting)

Genealogical importance splitting marches towards a rare event by iteratively selecting and replicating realizations that are headed towards a rare event. The replication step is made difficult when applied to deterministic systems as the initial conditions of the offspring realizations need to be adjusted. Typically, a random perturbation is applied to the offspring. For some cases, this cloning technique may not be adequate and prevent variance reduction in the probability estimate. A GAN-based replication process is proposed to address this limitation. The perturbations applied to the clones are physically consistent instead of being randomly chosen. The proposed method allows reducing the variance in the probability estimation.

Hassanaly, Malik↗
DOE OSTI2013

Tumor response parameters for head and neck cancer derived from tumor-volume variation during radiation therapy

Purpose: The main goal of this paper is to reconstruct a distribution of cell survival fractions from tumor-volume variation for a heterogeneous group of head and neck cancer patients and compare this distribution to the data from predictive assays. Methods: To characterize the tumor-volume variation during radiation therapy treatment, the authors use a two-level tumor-volume model of cell population that separates the entire tumor cell population into two subpopulations of viable cells and lethally damaged cells. This parameterized radiobiological model is integrated with a least squares objective function and a simulated annealing optimization algorithm to describe time-dependent tumor-volume variation rates in individual patients. Several constraints have been used in the optimization problem because tumor-volume variation during radiotherapy is described by a sum of exponentials; therefore, the problem of accurately fitting a model to measured data is ill-posed. The model was applied to measured tumor-volume variation curves from a clinical study on tumor-volume variation during radiotherapy for 14 head and neck cancer patients in which an integrated CT/linear particle accelerator (LINAC) system was used for tumor-volume measurements. Results: The two-level cell population tumor-volume modeling is capable of describing tumor-volume variation throughout the entire treatment for 11 of the 14 patients. For three patients, the tumor-volume variation was described only during the initial part of treatment, a fact that may be related to the neglected hypoxia in the two-level approximation. The predicted probability density distribution for the survival fractions agrees with the data obtained using in vitro studies with predictive assays. The mean value 0.35 of survival fraction obtained in this study is larger than the value 0.32 from in vitro studies, which could be expected because of greater repair in vivo. The mean half-life obtained in this study for the head-and-neck squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) is equal to 3.8 mean potential doubling times, which agrees with 4.0 mean potential doubling times obtained previously for lung SCC. Conclusions: The distribution of cell survival fractions obtained in this study support the hypothesis that the tumor-volume variation during radiotherapy treatment for head and neck cancer can be described by the two-level cell population tumor-volume model. This model can be used for in vivo evaluation of patient-specific radiobiological parameters that are needed for tumor-control probability evaluation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2012

Surface Impedance of Superconducting Radio Frequency (SRF) Materials

Superconducting radio frequency (SRF) technology is widely adopted in particle accelerators. There remain many open questions, however, in developing a systematic understanding of the fundamental behavior of SRF materials, including niobium treated in different ways and various other bulk/thin film materials that are fabricated with different methods under assorted conditions. A facility that can measure the SRF properties of small samples in a range of 2-40 K temperature is needed in order to fully answer these questions. The Jefferson Lab surface impedance characterization (SIC) system has been designed to attempt to meet this requirement. It consists of a sapphire-loaded cylindrical Nb TE011 cavity at 7.4 GHz with a 50 mm diameter flat sample placed on a non-contacting end plate and uses a calorimetric technique to measure the radio frequency (RF) induced heat on the sample. Driving the resonance to a known field on this surface enables one to derive the surface resistance of a relatively small localized area. TEo11 mode identification has been done at room temperature and 4 K, and has been compared with Microwave Studio® and SuperFish simulation results. RF loss mechanisms in the SIC system are under investigation. A VCO phase lock loop system has been used in both CW and pulsed mode. Two calorimeters, with stainless steel and Cu as the thermal path material for high precision and high power versions, respectively, have been designed and commissioned for the SIC system to provide low temperature control and measurement. A power compensation method has been developed to measure the RF induced power on the sample. Simulation and experimental results show that with these two calorimeters, the whole thermal range of interest for SRF materials has been covered. The power measurement error in the interested power range is within 1.2% and 2.7% for the high precision and high power versions, respectively. Temperature distributions on the sample surface for both versions have been simulated and the accuracy of sample temperature measurements have been analysed. Both versions have the ability to accept bulk superconductors and thin film superconducting samples with a variety of substrate materials such as AI, Al20 3 , Cu, MgO, Nb and Si. Tests with polycrystalline and large grain bulk Nb samples have been done at <15 mT magnetic field. Based on BCS surface impedance, least-squares fittings have been done using SuperFit2.0, a code developed by G. Ciovati and the author. Microstructure analyses and SRF measurements of large scale epitaxial MgB2 films have been reported. MgB2 films on 5 em dia. sapphire disks were fabricated by a Hybrid Physical Chemical Vapor Deposition (HPCVD) technique. The electron-beam backscattering diffraction (EBSD) results suggest that the film is a single crystal complying with a MgB2(0001 )//AI203(0001) epitaxial relationship. The SRF properties of different film thicknesses (200 nm and 350 nm) were evaluated using SIC system under different temperatures and applied fields at 7.4 GHz. A surface resistance of 9±2 1-10 has been observed at 2.2 K. Based on BCS theory with moving Cooper pairs, the electron states distribution at OK and the probability of electron occupation with finite temperature have been derived and applied to anomalous skin effect theory to obtain the surface impedance of a superconductor with moving Cooper pairs. We present the numerical results for Nb.

Xiao, Binping↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mesh objective stochastic simulations of quasibrittle fracture

Continuum finite element (FE) modeling of damage and failure of quasibrittle structures suffers from the spurious mesh sensitivity due to strain localization. Here this issue has been addressed for deterministic analysis through the development of localization limiters. Here this study proposes a mechanism-based model to mitigate the mesh sensitivity in stochastic FE simulations of quasibrittle fracture. The interest is placed on the analysis of large-size structures, where the mesh size is conveniently chosen to be larger than the width of the fracture process zone as well as the correlation length of the random fields of constitutive properties. The present model is formulated within the framework of continuum damage mechanics. Two localization parameters are introduced to describe the evolution of the damage pattern of each finite element. These parameters are used to guide the energy regularization of the constitutive law, as well as to formulate the mesh-dependent probability distributions of constitutive properties. Depending on the prevailing damage pattern, different energy regularization schemes and mesh dependence of the probability distribution functions are used in the constitutive law. The model is applied to simulate the stochastic failure behavior of quasibrittle structures of different geometries featuring different failure processes including damage initiation, localization, and propagation. It is shown that using fixed probability distribution functions of constitutive properties could lead to strong mesh dependence of the prediction of the mean and variance of the structural load capacity. The probability distribution functions of constitutive properties must be linked to the damage pattern, which may evolve during the failure process. Such a mechanism-based modeling of the probability distributions of constitutive properties is essential for mitigating the spurious mesh sensitivity in stochastic FE analysis of quasibrittle fracture.

42 ENGINEERING↗