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DOE OSTI2024

Data-Driven Invertible Neural Surrogates of Atmospheric Transmission

We present Data-Driven Invertible Neural Surrogates of Atmospheric transmission, or DINSAT. DINSAT is a novel framework for inferring an atmospheric transmission profile from a spectral scene. This framework leverages a lightweight, physics-based simulator that is automatically tuned -- by virtue of autodifferentiation and differentiable programming -- to construct a surrogate atmospheric profile to model the observed data. The framework has utility in (i) performing atmospheric correction, (ii) recasting spectral data between various modalities (e.g. radiance and reflectance at the surface and at the sensor), and (iii) inferring atmospheric transmission profiles, such as absorbing bands and their relative magnitudes. We demonstrate the utility of these methods by performing a canonical atmospheric correction task for the purposes of further analysis - in this case, target detection within a scene.

Koch, James V.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning at the Spallation Neutron Source accelerator and target

We describe the ongoing efforts to apply Machine Learning techniques to improve the performance of our accelerator and target. Specially, we are looking to minimize halo beam losses in the absence of a proper physics model, automatically detect and log anomalies in the target support systems such as cooling, and detect and prevent errant beam pulses in the linac. We also describe the infrastructure we use to acquire and stream data to the GPU cluster for training, our code development cycle, and edge computing for model inference. To minimize halo beam losses, we use a Reinforcement Learning technique tested on a virtual accelerator. The target anomaly detection is trained on archived data using incomplete physics models and is made part of the existing target reporting system. The errant beam prevention analyzes beam current and beam phase waveforms as well as accelerator configuration data to predict errant pulses. We also develop continual learning to adapt to changes in the accelerator.

Accelerator Physics↗

DOE OSTI2025

An attention-based neural ordinary differential equation framework for modeling inelastic processes

To preserve strictly conservative behavior as well as model the variety of dissipative behavior displayed by solid materials, we propose a significant enhancement to the internal state variable-neural ordinary differential equation (ISV-NODE) framework. In this data-driven, physics-constrained modeling framework internal states are inferred rather than prescribed. The ISV-NODE consists of: (a) a stress model dependent on observable deformation and inferred internal state, and (b) a model of the evolution of the internal states. The enhancements to ISV-NODE proposed in this work are multifold: (a) a partially input convex neural network stress potential provides polyconvexity in terms of observed strain while leaving the inferred state unconstrained, and (b) an internal state flow model uses common latent features to inform novel attention-based gating and drives the flow of internal state only in dissipative regimes. We demonstrated that this architecture can accurately model dissipative and conservative behavior across an isotropic, isothermal elastic-viscoelastic-elastoplastic spectrum with three exemplars, while maintaining fundamental principles by design.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

SODAs: sparse optimization for the discovery of differential and algebraic equations

Differential-algebraic equations (DAEs) integrate ordinary differential equations (ODEs) with algebraic constraints, providing a fundamental framework for developing models of dynamical systems characterized by time-scale separation, conservation laws and physical constraints. While sparse optimization has revolutionized model development by allowing data-driven discovery of parsimonious models from a library of possible equations, existing approaches for dynamical systems assume DAEs can be reduced to ODEs by eliminating variables before model discovery. This assumption limits the applicability of such methods for DAE systems with unknown constraints and time scales. We introduce sparse optimization for differential-algebraic systems (SODAs), a data-driven method for the identification of DAEs in their explicit form. By discovering the algebraic and dynamic components sequentially without prior identification of the algebraic variables, this approach leads to a sequence of convex optimization problems. It has the advantage of discovering interpretable models that preserve the structure of the underlying physical system. To this end, SODAs improves since SODAs is singular numerical stability when handling high correlations between library terms, caused by near-perfect algebraic relationships, by iteratively refining the conditioning of the candidate library. We demonstrate the performance of our method on biological, mechanical and electrical systems, showcasing its robustness to noise in both simulated time series and real-time experimental data.

DAE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Quantum optimal control of superconducting qubits based on machine-learning characterization

Implementing fast and high-fidelity quantum operations using open-loop quantum optimal control relies on having an accurate model of the quantum dynamics. Any deviations between this model and the complete dynamics of the device, such as the presence of spurious modes or pulse distortions, can degrade the performance of optimal controls in practice. Here, we propose an experimentally simple approach to realize optimal quantum controls tailored to the device parameters and environment while specifically characterizing this quantum system. Concretely, we use physics-inspired machine learning to infer an accurate model of the dynamics from experimentally available data and then optimize our experimental controls on this trained model. We show the power and feasibility of this approach by optimizing arbitrary single-qubit operations in detailed numerical simulations of a superconducting transmon qubit. Furthermore, we demonstrate that this framework produces an accurate description of the device dynamics under arbitrary controls, together with the precise pulses achieving arbitrary single-qubit gates with a high fidelity of ∼99.99%.

Artificial neural networks↗

DOE OSTI2025

Basic Research Needs for Inverse Methods for Complex Systems under Uncertainty

Inverse problems, which aim to infer unknown properties of a system using experimental and observational data, are central to addressing many of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) most critical scientific and engineering challenges. Accurate, computationally efficient, and data-efficient solutions to inverse problems are essential for advancing DOE mission-critical science drivers, including analyzing data from large-scale experimental facilities, optimizing fusion reactor performance, accelerating materials discovery, enhancing geophysical imaging, improving wildfire predictions, and enabling autonomous systems and digital twins. However, these problems are becoming increasingly complex, often involving nonlinear, highdimensional, and interconnected systems and models that span multiple physics and scales, while relying on data with varying quantity, quality, and information content. Compounding these challenges is the uncertainty inherent in DOE-relevant systems, where errors in inputs, noise in data, incompleteness of data, and discrepancies between models and reality constrain the accuracy and precision of solutions. At the same time, the convergence of recent scientific computing trends—scientific machine learning, artificial intelligence, and computing advances such as exascale computing—is creating unprecedented opportunities for tackling these challenges. The cross-cutting nature of inverse problems, combined with their growing complexity and rapidly evolving data and algorithmic demands, strongly motivates the formulation of a prioritized research agenda to maximize their capabilities and impact. In response to this need, DOE’s Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) program in the Office of Science convened the Workshop on Basic Research Needs for Inverse Problems for Complex Systems Under Uncertainty in June 2025. This workshop brought together experts across disciplines to identify grand challenges and major opportunities in the field. Through collaborative discussions, the workshop defined transformative research directions aimed at addressing the mathematical, statistical, and computational challenges posed by inverse problems under uncertainty. As a result of these efforts, four priority research directions (PRDs) were identified to guide future research and development in this area. These PRDs, summarized below, represent a roadmap for advancing the foundational science and mathematics of inverse problems, enabling robust, scalable, and uncertainty-aware solutions that are critical for DOE applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Computing Nonlinear Power Spectra Across Dynamical Dark Energy Model Space with Neural ODEs

I show how to compute the nonlinear power spectrum across the entire $w(z)$ dynamical dark energy model space. Using synthetic ΛCDM data, I train a neural ordinary differential equation (ODE) to infer the evolution of the nonlinear matter power spectrum as a function of the background expansion and mean matter density across ∼9 Gyr of cosmic evolution. After training, the model generalises to any dynamical dark energy model parameterised by $w(z)$. With little optimisation, the neural ODE is accurate to within 4% up to $k = 5\, h\, {\mathrm Mpc}^{−1}$. Unlike simulation rescaling methods, neural ODEs naturally extend to summary statistics beyond the power spectrum that are sensitive to the growth history.

cosmology↗

DOE OSTI2026

Automated Membership Inference Attacks: Discovering MIA Signal Computations using LLM Agents

Membership inference attacks (MIAs), which enable adversaries to determine whether specific data points were part of a model's training dataset, have emerged as an important framework to understand, assess, and quantify the potential information leakage associated with machine learning systems. Designing effective MIAs is a challenging task that usually requires extensive manual exploration of model behaviors to identify potential vulnerabilities. In this paper, we introduce AutoMIA -- a novel framework that leverages large language model (LLM) agents to automate the design and implementation of new MIA signal computations. By utilizing LLM agents, we can systematically explore a vast space of potential attack strategies, enabling the discovery of novel strategies. Our experiments demonstrate AutoMIA can successfully discover new MIAs that are specifically tailored to user-configured target model and dataset, resulting in improvements of up to 0.18 in absolute AUC over existing MIAs. This work provides the first demonstration that LLM agents can serve as an effective and scalable paradigm for designing and implementing MIAs with SOTA performance, opening up new avenues for future exploration.

Tran, Toan Viet [Emory University]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Basin-Scale Structural Features Database

The Basin-Scale Structural Features database provides spatial datasets of faults, fractures, folds, and earthquakes compiled from public, authoritative sources (e.g., U.S. Geological Survey and State Geological Surveys) and aggregated into derivative forms to support subsurface assessments. Recognizing that characterizing basin-scale structural features requires interpreting data that are often ambiguous or lack key information, the source data were evaluated using a knowledge-data framework and geospatial fuzzy logic method (Justman et al., 2020) to represent both measured (observed) and predicted (inferred or potential) structural features as derivative datasets. This workflow employs conceptual models for known structural features and predicted structural features, incorporating geospatial data to estimate potential, even with limited data. The aim is to aid and support an understanding of basin-scale features and identify potential gaps in data and knowledge. As of 4/30/2025, the database includes resources for nine sedimentary basins: Appalachian, Denver, U.S. Gulf Coast, Illinois, Michigan, Permian, Sacramento, San Joquin and Williston. The database is organized by basin and then data category: 1) Faults, fractures, folds, 2) Earthquakes, 3) Topographic, 4) Structural contours and isopachs, 5) Geophysical, and 6) Structural feature density assessment maps.

basin scale↗

DOE OSTI2026

Towards self-consistent integrated modeling of the tokamak pedestal, scrape-off layer, and divertor using SOLPS-ITER and EPED

A predictive, self-consistent integrated model of the tokamak edge plasma and neutral system has been developed and validated against experimental data from DIII-D, spanning from the divertor target and scrape-off layer to the top of the pedestal. The model uses the SOLPS-ITER fluid boundary plasma and neutral code to constrain the EPED prediction of the pedestal height and width by taking the separatrix temperature and density calculated from SOLPS as inputs to EPED. An empirical proxy function based on data from a subset of these discharges is then used to infer the ratio of density at the pedestal top to that at the separatrix based on the electron temperature at the divertor target. This allows the density at the top of the pedestal to be provided to EPED as well, so that knowledge of this quantity is no longer required a priori, while SOLPS radial transport coefficients are needed instead. The gas puff rate provided to SOLPS is then a primary model input for this forward model coupling (along with radial transport coefficients, which are kept fixed through each scan in this study). Comparisons with measurements from DIII-D density scans through a range of target conditions find significant pedestal pressure degradation as the density is increased towards detachment in three different divertor configurations, consistent with the experimental data in these ballooning-limited pedestal regimes.

core-edge integration↗

DOE OSTI2024

Simulation-based inference for parameter estimation of complex watershed simulators

High-resolution, spatially distributed process-based (PB) simulators are widely employed in the study of complex catchment processes and their responses to a changing climate. However, calibrating these PB simulators using observed data remains a significant challenge due to several persistent issues, including the following: (1) intractability stemming from the computational demands and complex responses of simulators, which renders infeasible calculation of the conditional probability of parameters and data, and (2) uncertainty stemming from the choice of simplified representations of complex natural hydrologic processes. Here, we demonstrate how simulation-based inference (SBI) can help address both of these challenges with respect to parameter estimation. SBI uses a learned mapping between the parameter space and observed data to estimate parameters for the generation of calibrated simulations. To demonstrate the potential of SBI in hydrologic modeling, we conduct a set of synthetic experiments to infer two common physical parameters – Manning's coefficient and hydraulic conductivity – using a representation of a snowmelt-dominated catchment in Colorado, USA. We introduce novel deep-learning (DL) components to the SBI approach, including an “emulator” as a surrogate for the PB simulator to rapidly explore parameter responses. We also employ a density-based neural network to represent the joint probability of parameters and data without strong assumptions about its functional form. While addressing intractability, we also show that, if the simulator does not represent the system under study well enough, SBI can yield unreliable parameter estimates. Approaches to adopting the SBI framework for cases in which multiple simulator(s) may be adequate are introduced using a performance-weighting approach. The synthetic experiments presented here test the performance of SBI, using the relationship between the surrogate and PB simulators as a proxy for the real case.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic inference of the structure and orbit of Milky Way satellites with semi-analytic modelling

Semi-analytic modelling furnishes an efficient avenue for characterizing dark matter haloes associated with satellites of Milky Way-like systems, as it easily accounts for uncertainties arising from halo-to-halo variance, the orbital disruption of satellites, baryonic feedback, and the stellar-to-halo mass (SMHM) relation. We use the SatGen semi-analytic satellite generator, which incorporates both empirical models of the galaxy–halo connection as well as analytic prescriptions for the orbital evolution of these satellites after accretion onto a host to create large samples of Milky Way-like systems and their satellites. By selecting satellites in the sample that match observed properties of a particular dwarf galaxy, we can infer arbitrary properties of the satellite galaxy within the cold dark matter paradigm. For the Milky Way’s classical dwarfs, we provide inferred values (with associated uncertainties) for the maximum circular velocity v max and the radius r max at which it occurs, varying over two choices of baryonic feedback model and two prescriptions for the SMHM relation. While simple empirical scaling relations can recover the median inferred value for v max and r max , this approach provides realistic correlated uncertainties and aids interpretability. We also demonstrate how the internal properties of a satellite’s dark matter profile correlate with its orbit, and we show that it is difficult to reproduce observations of the Fornax dwarf without strong baryonic feedback. Furthermore, the technique developed in this work is flexible in its application of observational data and can leverage arbitrary information about the satellite galaxies to make inferences about their dark matter haloes and population statistics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2026

Direct inference of nuclear equation-of-state parameters from gravitational-wave observations

The observation of neutron star mergers with gravitational waves (GWs) has provided a new method to constrain the dense-matter equation of state (EOS) and to better understand its nuclear physics. However, inferring nuclear microphysics from GW observations necessitates the sampling of EOS model parameters that serve as input for each EOS used during the GW data analysis. The sampling of the EOS parameters requires solving the Tolman–Oppenheimer–Volkoff (TOV) equations a large number of times—a process that slows down each likelihood evaluation in the analysis on the order of a few seconds. Here, we employ emulators for the TOV equations built using multilayer perceptron neural networks to enable direct inference of nuclear EOS parameters from GW strain data. Our emulators allow us to rapidly solve the TOV equations, taking in EOS parameters and outputting the associated tidal deformability of a neutron star in only a few tens of milliseconds. We implement these emulators in PyCBC to directly infer the EOS parameters using the event GW170817, providing posteriors on these parameters informed solely by GWs. We benchmark these runs against analyses performed using the full TOV solver and find that the emulators achieve speed ups of nearly two orders of magnitude, with negligible differences in the recovered posteriors. Additionally, we constrain the slope and curvature of the symmetry energy at the 90% upper credible interval to be $L$ sym ≲ 106 MeV and $K$ sym ≲ 26 MeV.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Gaussian processes for inferring parton distributions

The extraction of parton distribution functions (PDFs) from experimental or lattice QCD data is an ill-posed inverse problem, where regularization strongly impacts both systematic uncertainties and the reliability of the results. We study a framework based on Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) to reconstruct PDFs from lattice QCD matrix elements. Within a Bayesian framework, Gaussian processes serve as flexible priors that encode uncertainties, correlations, and constraints without imposing rigid functional forms. We investigate a wide range of kernel choices, mean functions, and hyperparameter treatments. We quantify information gained from the data using the Kullback-Leibler divergence. Synthetic data tests demonstrate the consistency and robustness of the method. Our study establishes GPR as a systematic and non-parametric approach to PDF reconstruction, offering controlled uncertainty estimates and reduced model bias in lattice QCD analyses.

hadronic spectroscopy↗

DOE OSTI2025

A small core in Vesta inferred from Dawn’s observations

Vesta’s large-scale interior structure had previously been constrained primarily using the gravity and shape data from the Dawn mission. However, these data alone still allow a wide range of possibilities for the differentiation state of the body. The moment of inertia is arguably the most diagnostic parameter related to the radial density distribution of a planetary body, making it crucial for assessing the body’s state of internal differentiation. Determining the moment of inertia requires additional measurements of the amplitudes of small rotational motions, such as precession and nutation. Here we report an updated estimate of the moment of inertia of Vesta inferred from Dawn’s Doppler tracking via the Deep Space Network and onboard imaging data. The recovered value for Vesta’s normalized polar moment of inertia is $\overline{C}$/MR 2 = 0.4208 ± 0.0047 (where M is the mass of Vesta and R is the reference radius), which is only 6.6% lower than the homogeneous value of 0.4505. This value, combined with the gravity field and global shape, suggests that Vesta’s interior has limited density stratification beneath its howardite–eucrite–diogenite-dominated crust. We propose two possible origin scenarios that are consistent with the observed constraints. In the first scenario, Vesta’s interior did not undergo full differentiation due to late accretion. In the second scenario, Vesta originated as an impact remnant of a larger differentiated body re-accreted with non-chondritic bulk composition produced from a catastrophic impact. Vesta did not experience complete differentiation in either scenario, suggesting that its current state reflects a complex interplay between its accretion timing, thermal evolution, redistribution of 26 Al bearing melt and/or impact processes.

CNEOS 2014-01-08 bolide↗

DOE OSTI2025

Inferring three-nucleon couplings from multi-messenger neutron-star observations

Understanding the interactions between nucleons in dense matter is an important challenge in theoretical physics. Effective field theories have emerged as the dominant approach to address this problem at low energies, with many successful applications to the structure of nuclei and the properties of dense nucleonic matter. However, how far into the interior of neutron stars these interactions can describe dense matter is an open question. Here, we develop a framework that enables the inference of three-nucleon couplings in dense matter directly from astrophysical neutron star observations. We apply this formalism to the LIGO/Virgo gravitational-wave event GW170817 and the X-ray measurements from NASA’s Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer and establish direct constraints for the couplings that govern three-nucleon interactions in chiral effective field theory. Furthermore, we demonstrate how next-generation observations of a population of neutron star mergers can offer stringent constraints on three-nucleon couplings, potentially at a level comparable to those from laboratory data. Our work directly connects the microscopic couplings in quantum field theories to macroscopic observations of neutron stars, providing a way to test the consistency between low-energy couplings inferred from terrestrial and astrophysical data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Portable Acceleration of CMS Computing Workflows with Coprocessors as a Service

Computing demands for large scientific experiments, such as the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC, will increase dramatically in the next decades. To complement the future performance increases of software running on central processing units (CPUs), explorations of coprocessor usage in data processing hold great potential and interest. Coprocessors are a class of computer processors that supplement CPUs, often improving the execution of certain functions due to architectural design choices. We explore the approach of Services for Optimized Network Inference on Coprocessors (SONIC) and study the deployment of this as-a-service approach in large-scale data processing. In the studies, we take a data processing workflow of the CMS experiment and run the main workflow on CPUs, while offloading several machine learning (ML) inference tasks onto either remote or local coprocessors, specifically graphics processing units (GPUs). With experiments performed at Google Cloud, the Purdue Tier-2 computing center, and combinations of the two, we demonstrate the acceleration of these ML algorithms individually on coprocessors and the corresponding throughput improvement for the entire workflow. This approach can be easily generalized to different types of coprocessors and deployed on local CPUs without decreasing the throughput performance. We emphasize that the SONIC approach enables high coprocessor usage and enables the portability to run workflows on different types of coprocessors.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2025

DeepDiagnostics: A Software Package for Streamlined Posterior Evaluation

Automated prediction techniques like simulation-based inference (SBI) are important tasks for science experiments that produce large amounts of complex, raw data. However, their development remains in its early stages because the uncertainties of these techniques lack sufficient trustworthiness and interpretability. Packages for SBI provide a growing set of diagnostics; however, the software requirements are substantial, as they are tied to the inference technology itself, and the APIs lack adaptability. We introduce the DeepDiagnostics package for diagnosing posteriors from analytic likelihood-based methods and SBI methods, such as neural posterior estimation. DeepDiagnostics produces a comprehensive set of high-quality visualizations and metrics in a highly accessible, easy-to-use, and flexible package. We address all of these goals by providing a command-line inference tool and a Python API that is controlled through a configuration file. The package includes common diagnostics, such as parity plots, corner (covariance) plots, simulation-based calibration (SBC) diagnostics (including posterior coverage and rank histograms), Lemos et al. s PQMass and TARP, Masserano et al. s WALDO, Linhart et al. s LC2ST, as well as credible region diagnostics developed by our group.

Voetberg, Maggie [Fermilab]↗